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Modeling and Forecasting of Rainfall Time Series. A Case Study for Pakistan Tayyab Raza Fraz 降雨时间序列的建模与预报。巴基斯坦Tayyab Raza Fraz的案例研究
Pub Date : 2022-02-27 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.v13i1.20
Tayyab Raza Fraz
The change of weather conditions is considered as the major problem, particularly for developing country like Pakistan. Machine learning and artificial neural network models have become attractive forecast techniques for rainfall as compared to traditional statistical methods in the last few years. The behavioral pattern in rainfall (mm) annually by 1901 to 2020 is studied. Moreover, forecasts of three models based on past observations are evaluated. Fundamentally, different techniques are used for model development. Three modeling techniques include a traditional linear time series ARMA model, an emerging nonlinear threshold technique SETAR model, and influential machine learning technique NAR model. Evaluation of forecast performance is based on three forecast error criteria namely MSE, RMSE, and MAPE. Results indicate that the rainfall (mm) will slightly increase in the coming ten years i.e. 2021 to 2030. Furthermore, the findings also reveal that the NAR model is a suitable and appropriate model to forecast the rainfall which outperforms the ARMA as well as the SETAR model.
天气条件的变化被认为是主要问题,特别是对于像巴基斯坦这样的发展中国家。与传统的统计方法相比,机器学习和人工神经网络模型在过去几年中已经成为有吸引力的降雨预测技术。研究了1901 ~ 2020年的年降雨量(mm)的变化规律。此外,还对基于过去观测的三种模式的预报结果进行了评价。基本上,模型开发使用了不同的技术。三种建模技术包括传统的线性时间序列ARMA模型、新兴的非线性阈值技术SETAR模型和有影响力的机器学习技术NAR模型。预测性能的评价基于三个预测误差标准,即MSE、RMSE和MAPE。结果表明,未来10年,即2021 - 2030年,降雨量(mm)将略有增加。此外,研究结果还表明,NAR模型在预测降水方面优于ARMA和SETAR模型。
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引用次数: 0
Petrographic and Physiomechanical Investigation of Late Cretaceous Kawagarh Formation Kahi Section, Nizampur Basin 尼赞普尔盆地Kahi剖面晚白垩世Kawagarh组岩石学及物理力学研究
Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss4.2021.650
Syed Muhammad Waseem Sajid, Mukhtar S Ahmad, E. Khan, Maria Sabir
The late Cretaceous Kawagarh Formation has been investigated in terms of field observation, and petrographic analysis, to understand the petrography and its impact on the geotechnical properties. The Kawagarh Formation is well exposed among the upper Indus Basin, and has been studied by various workers in different aspects. Kawagarh Formationexposed in Kahi section of Nizampur Basin has been selected in this study to know the behavior of carbonate rocks for engineering purposes. Lithologically, this formation is composed of thick to medium bedded, highly fractured limestone, marls, and dolomitic limestone which has undertaken diagenetic alteration including dolomite, calcite veins, and stylolites. Followed by petrographic analysis which reveals that the Kawagarh limestone is mostly fossiliferouscomprised of a large number of planktonic foraminifera fossils like Globotruncana Hilli and Globotruncana Linneana fossils. Furthermore, to know the impact of petrographic minerals on engineering behavior, mechanical properties in terms of uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and uniaxial tensile strength (UTS) were also computed by using a universal testing machine (UTM). The resultant mechanical values lie in the strong compressive strength and suggest their usage for various construction purposes. Aggregate degradation tests including water absorption, specific gravity, aggregate impact value, Los angles abrasion, and soundness was also computed according to the International standard organization, ASTM (American Society for testing materials) and British standard. The aggregate values of the Cretaceous Kawagarh Formation are within the defined standard limits and can be used as an aggregate source for different construction engineering projects.
对晚白垩世卡瓦格尔组进行了野外观测和岩石学分析,以了解其岩石学特征及其对岩土力学性质的影响。卡瓦格尔组是印度河上游盆地中出露程度较高的一组,前人对其进行了多方面的研究。本研究选择了尼扎姆布尔盆地Kahi剖面的Kawagarh组,以了解碳酸盐岩的行为,为工程目的。从岩性上看,该地层由厚至中等层状、高度断裂的灰岩、泥灰岩和白云质灰岩组成,这些灰岩发生了成岩蚀变,包括白云岩、方解石脉和柱面岩。岩石学分析表明,卡瓦格尔石灰岩以化石为主,由大量的Globotruncana Hilli和Globotruncana Linneana等浮游有孔虫化石组成。此外,为了了解岩相矿物对工程行为的影响,还使用通用试验机(UTM)计算了单轴抗压强度(UCS)和单轴抗拉强度(UTS)的力学性能。由此产生的力学值在于强抗压强度,并建议它们用于各种建筑目的。骨料的降解试验,包括吸水率、比重、骨料冲击值、洛杉矶磨损和可靠性,也按照国际标准组织ASTM(美国材料试验协会)和英国标准进行了计算。白垩系卡瓦格尔组集料值在规定的标准范围内,可作为不同建设工程项目的集料来源。
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引用次数: 0
A Case Study of Tariq Road Underpass, Karachi: Environmental Analysis 以卡拉奇塔里克路地下通道为例:环境分析
Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss4.2021.651
H. Abbasi, Rubina Khan, Imran Nasir, W. Ahmed
The construction projects are rising in Pakistan to overcome the flow of traffic on the main road of big cities. Karachi is the metropolitan city of Pakistan facing uncontrolled growth and urbanization, which leads to an increase in the demand for urban transport facilities. The study focuses on the assessment of the environmental impacts of the Tariq Road underpass construction site. The data was collected with the help of community consultation using analytical methods. It includes public chat, site visits, interviews, questioners, and the samples collection of environmental components. The results show that the most common hazards were related to excavation, working practice variation, and personal protective equipment (PPEs). Faulty and unmaintained machinery with the lack of proper barrier producingnoise and air pollution.
巴基斯坦的建设项目正在增加,以克服大城市主要道路上的交通流量。卡拉奇是巴基斯坦的大都市,面临着不受控制的增长和城市化,这导致对城市交通设施的需求增加。本研究的重点是对塔里克路地下通道施工现场的环境影响进行评价。数据是在社区咨询的帮助下使用分析方法收集的。它包括公开聊天、现场访问、访谈、提问者和环境成分样本收集。结果表明,最常见的危害与开挖、作业规程变化和个人防护装备有关。故障和未维修的机器,缺乏适当的屏障,产生噪音和空气污染。
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引用次数: 0
GIS-based Analysis for Optimal Site Selection of Schools in Tehsil Khushab, Punjab 基于gis的旁遮普Tehsil Khushab地区学校最优选址分析
Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss4.2021.653
Sajid Ahmed, S. Hafeez
Education plays an important role in the development of society. The service area for schools is generally considered at a distance coverd in 10 minute walk. There are four tehsils of Khushab which are Khushab, Nurpur Thal, Quaidabad and Noushera.There are some areas with no government schools for girls. In previous research works serviceability has been analyzed with indices such as number of schools (Mladenka and Hill, 1997; Omer, 2006), but these indices do not show the correct results (Ohio and S.Jiong, 2007). However, it is difficult to find serviceability without analyzing the spread of schools (Tsou, 2005). This study focuses on the spatial spread of schools and the accessibility of people to schools integrated with the road network. Accessibility is the basic facility, which helps people move anywhere and reach destinations (Gregory, 2009). It is also considered the proximity of one place to another (Pooler, 1995).
教育在社会的发展中起着重要的作用。学校服务区一般考虑在步行10分钟的距离内。库沙布有四个县,分别是库沙布、努尔普尔塔尔、奎达巴德和努谢拉。有些地区没有公立女子学校。在以前的研究工作中,可用性分析指标,如学校数量(Mladenka和Hill, 1997;Omer, 2006),但这些指数并没有显示正确的结果(Ohio和s.g ong, 2007)。然而,如果不分析学校的传播,很难找到适用性(Tsou, 2005)。本研究的重点是学校的空间分布以及与道路网络相结合的人到学校的可达性。可达性是基本的设施,它可以帮助人们移动到任何地方,到达目的地(Gregory, 2009)。它也被认为是一个地方到另一个地方的邻近性(Pooler, 1995)。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of Rice Husk Biomass Potential for Power Generation in Pakistan 巴基斯坦稻壳生物质发电潜力评估
Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss4.2021.652
Yasmin Nargis, J. A. Butt, Amjad Hussain, Mughal Shareef
Rice husk is one of the utmost obtainable feedstock for renewable energy production and can contribute to resolving energy scarcity and environmental problems. Appropriate knowledge of the rice husk's physiochemical properties is essential for the approach of thermochemical conversion systems. The present study delivers data on proximate and ultimate analysis and heating values of rice husk collected from different regions of Sindh, Pakistan. Moisture content was found low ranging between 12.76% to 13.50% (Mean 12.98%), higher volatile matter in the range of 55.77% to 62.88% (Mean 61.19%) and ash particles of 14.50% to 16.48% (Mean 15.20%). The lower concentrations of nitrogen, 0.37% to 1.31%, (Mean 0.70%) and sulfur, 0.02% to 0.19%, (Mean 0.11%) environmentally deal with more appropriate fuel properties. The heating value of rice husk ranges varied from 5,276.33 to 6,237.13 Btu/lb (Mean 5,859.87 Btu/lb). The significant values of the rice husk samples indicated that the locally available renewable resources can be transformed into an extensive amount of energy products at a small level from active conversion techniques. Therefore, rice husk can be deliberated as appropriate fuel for energy generation and can be considered as an environmentally friendly and economically feasible fuel that helps to decline harmful pollutions.
稻壳是可再生能源生产中最容易获得的原料之一,有助于解决能源短缺和环境问题。稻壳的物理化学性质的适当的知识是必不可少的热化学转化系统的方法。本研究提供了从巴基斯坦信德省不同地区收集的稻壳的近似和最终分析和热值的数据。水分含量低,为12.76% ~ 13.50%(平均12.98%),挥发物含量高,为55.77% ~ 62.88%(平均61.19%),灰分含量高,为14.50% ~ 16.48%(平均15.20%)。较低浓度的氮(0.37%至1.31%,平均0.70%)和硫(0.02%至0.19%,平均0.11%)在环境上处理更合适的燃料特性。谷壳的热值变化范围为5276.33 ~ 6237.13 Btu/lb(平均5859.87 Btu/lb)。稻壳样品的显著值表明,当地可用的可再生资源可以通过主动转化技术在小水平上转化为大量的能源产品。因此,稻壳可以考虑作为合适的能源生产燃料,可以被认为是一种环境友好和经济可行的燃料,有助于减少有害污染。
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引用次数: 0
Using XGBoost Model with Feature Selection Techniques for Wind Speed Forecasting 利用XGBoost模型和特征选择技术进行风速预报
Pub Date : 2022-02-21 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss4.2021.654
Hamza Hanif, Ahmer Shaheem Tahir, Rimsha Sheikh, Dania Anjum
Renewable Energy Sources have a lot of importance in today’s world to produce an electrical output which explains the main reasons that every government and policy maker now a days prefer Renewable Energy in the wake of global warming and limited availability of fossil fuels (Twidell and Weir, 2021). The Renewable Energy Sources are hazardless, pollution free, ecofriendly, freely available in nature in vast quantities and most importantly, they give a chance to create a carbonfree environment.
可再生能源在当今世界产生电力输出非常重要,这解释了在全球变暖和化石燃料供应有限的情况下,每个政府和政策制定者现在一天都更喜欢可再生能源的主要原因(Twidell和Weir, 2021)。可再生能源是无害的,无污染的,生态友好的,在自然界中大量免费提供,最重要的是,它们提供了一个创造无碳环境的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Drinking Water Quality Assessment of Metro Bus Stations of Islamabad and Rawalpindi 伊斯兰堡和拉瓦尔品第地铁公交车站饮用水水质评价
Pub Date : 2022-01-29 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.v13i1.17
Saima Akber, Aleena Nazir, Zohaib Aslam
Water is the most wonderful substance. Almost 70% of our planet consists of water. The human body comprises almost 60% of water. Safe and clean water is necessary for all purposes in daily life which include different practices like washing, drinking, cooking, and personal cleanliness (Frances and Brack, 2018). Water is known as a universal solvent because it can dissolve a large proportion of natural or man-made substances (Balasubramanian, 2015). Fecal contaminated water is the main reason for waterborne disease. With quick urbanization, the chemical feature of water quality has contributed to increasing concerns as toxic chemicals industrial effluents pose a high hazard to life (Alurralde et al., 1998). Pakistan has been blessed with water resources, but unfortunately over the years, industrial development, overpopulation, and rapid growth have decelerated the water resources (Daud et al., 2017). Different studies show that the majority of the supplies of potable water are polluted (Aziz, 2005). Pakistan ranks 80 out of 122 nations, and both ground and surface drinking water sources are polluted throughout the country with toxic metals, microbes, and pesticides (Nabeela et al., 2014). Even currently some rural areas in Pakistan have no availability of fresh and clean water for regular use (Shahid et al., 2014). The quality of drinking water in Pakistan is reducing day by day due to the waste and pollutants released by the industries. Channeled water also gets contaminated because the network of the pipeline is not planned and laid poorly (Imran et al., 2018).
水是最奇妙的物质。地球上几乎70%是由水构成的。人体几乎由60%的水组成。安全和清洁的水对于日常生活中的所有目的都是必要的,包括洗涤、饮用、烹饪和个人清洁等不同的做法(Frances和Brack, 2018)。水被称为通用溶剂,因为它可以溶解大部分天然或人造物质(Balasubramanian, 2015)。粪便污染的水是水传播疾病的主要原因。随着快速城市化,水质的化学特征引起了越来越多的关注,因为有毒化学品工业废水对生命构成高度危害(Alurralde等人,1998年)。巴基斯坦拥有丰富的水资源,但不幸的是,多年来,工业发展,人口过剩和快速增长已经减缓了水资源(Daud et al., 2017)。不同的研究表明,大多数饮用水供应受到污染(Aziz, 2005)。巴基斯坦在122个国家中排名第80位,全国各地的地面和地表饮用水源都受到有毒金属、微生物和农药的污染(Nabeela etal ., 2014)。即使目前巴基斯坦的一些农村地区也没有正常使用的淡水和清洁水(Shahid et al., 2014)。由于工业排放的废物和污染物,巴基斯坦的饮用水质量日益下降。由于管道网络没有规划和铺设不良,管道水也会受到污染(Imran等人,2018)。
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引用次数: 0
Impact Assessment of Pozzolanic Material Coupled with River Bed Aggregate on Expansive Behavior of High Strength Concrete 火山灰材料与河床骨料耦合对高强混凝土膨胀性能的影响评价
Pub Date : 2022-01-29 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.v13i1.11
M. Sanaullah, Muhammad Imran, Muhammad Qasim Mahmood, Syed Muhammad Hassan, M. Hussain, S. Muqthiar Ali
High strength concrete is widely used in engineering structures. Present work is an effort for suitability assessment of river bed aggregates in high strength concrete to be used at structural units of Dam (Spillway & Powerhouse) and the vulnerability of placed concrete expansion. Multiple sizes of coarse aggregate (5-20mm, 20-40mm, and 40-80mm) from Beor river bed material have been tested for physical (water absorption, crushing index, soundness, shape, and bulk density), and mineralogical characterization. Concrete Mix Design (CMD) for Spillway has been optimized using Fly ash and river aggregate that achieved the Unconfined Compressional Strength (UCS) up to 32.5 MPa. The accelerated mortar bar test (AMBT) has been introduced to gauge the reactive aggregates used in CMD.. Expansive properties of concrete were observed at the age of 7 days and 28 days that demonstrate more expansion of the specimen with slag rather than the Fly ash. Results of AMBT suggest that a minimum proportion of GGBS (40%) is needed to limit the AMBT expansion to less than 0.1% for crushed river bed aggregate and sand from the Beor source. The petrographical characterization of coarse aggregate shows the presence of deformed quartz in the coarse aggregate, which directly relates to water absorption (Wa), suggesting its suceseptility to Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR). Modifications in Pozzolanic additives in CMD indicates that 30% mixing of Fly ash can reduce the expansion rate of concrete up to 96.15%.
高强混凝土在工程结构中应用广泛。目前的工作是对用于大坝(泄洪道和厂房)结构单元的高强度混凝土河床骨料的适宜性评估和放置混凝土膨胀的脆弱性。从Beor河床材料中测试了多种尺寸的粗骨料(5-20mm, 20-40mm和40-80mm)的物理(吸水率,破碎指数,可靠性,形状和堆积密度)和矿物学表征。采用粉煤灰和河流骨料对溢洪道混凝土配合比进行了优化设计,其无侧限抗压强度(UCS)达到32.5 MPa。介绍了加速砂浆棒试验(AMBT)对水泥混凝土中反应性骨料的测定方法。混凝土在龄期7天和28天的膨胀特性观察表明,掺加矿渣比掺加粉煤灰的膨胀更大。AMBT结果表明,对于破碎的河床骨料和Beor源砂,需要最小比例的GGBS(40%)将AMBT扩展限制在0.1%以下。粗骨料的岩石学特征表明,粗骨料中存在变形石英,这与吸水率(Wa)直接相关,表明其易发生碱-硅反应(ASR)。粉煤灰掺量为30%时,可使混凝土膨胀率降低96.15%。
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引用次数: 0
A Case Study on Distribution of Gemstone in Bela Ophiolite, District Khuzdar, Balochistan 俾路支省库兹达尔地区Bela蛇绿岩宝石分布研究
Pub Date : 2022-01-14 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss4.2021.636
Salman Khan, A. Ghaffar, Inayat Ullah, F. Murad, J. Ahmad, M. I. Kakar
Bela Ophiolite and suture zone host several types of gemstones in the underlain and overlain rocks such as garnet (demantoid and almandine), quartz, brucite, malachite, chrysocolla, azurite, calcite, natrolite, green chert, jasper, serpentine, agate, epidote, augite and prehnite. However, the rare gemstones including demantoid garnet are found as dodecahedron green crystals associated with the altered peridotite rocks such as serpentinite. Brucite is found in the botryoidal habit in the ultramafic rocks of Bela Ophiolite associated with the chromite mines in the Baran Lak and Amorzai area of Wadh in the host rock dunite. The serpentine is found in several locations associated with the altered ultramafic rocks formed after the serpentinization of peridotite. Furthermore, one of the rare gemstones such as petroleum and diamond quartz is formed due to the hydrothermal intrusion in the sedimentary rocks such as limestone; calcite also occurs in limestone as dogtooth crystals. While azurite, malachite and chrysocolla are formed as secondary deposits in the oxidized zone of copper and sulphide mines in the Manjawi, Nal and Sonaro associated adjacent to basalt. Moreover, epidote is found as green crystals having porphyritic texture in the host rock granite mainly in the Bakhalo area, Wadh. Agate, jasper, green chert and several other kinds of chert are found associated with the basalt chert unit in the mélange and gossan. In addition to that natrolite is found in the Nal ophiolite mainly in the Hazarghanji town found associated with the cracks and vugs of dolerite dykes as fibrous and cylindrical crystals. In metamorphic sole rocks of Bela Ophiolite in the Sonaro area, marble and quartzite are associated with the metamorphic rocks such as greenschist and amphibolite facies that are formed during the e volution period of the ophiolite. In pegmatite gabbro, the elongated and prismatic black crystals of augite are found in the host rock gabbro near the Ornach cross area, and the prehnite gemstone is found associated with the basalt and gabbroic rocks transition zone in the Ornach area.
贝拉蛇绿岩和缝合带在下部和上覆岩石中含有几种类型的宝石,如石榴石(榴石和铝榴石)、石英、水辉石、孔雀石、黄铜矿、蓝铜矿、方解石、钠辉石、绿燧石、碧玉、蛇纹石、玛瑙、绿帘石、奥辉石和原辉石。然而,在蛇纹岩等蚀变橄榄岩中发现了一些稀有宝石,如菱形石榴石,呈十二面体绿色晶体。水辉石在贝拉蛇绿岩超镁质岩中呈盆状分布,与瓦德地区巴兰湖和阿莫尔扎伊地区铬铁矿伴生在寄主岩灰岩中。在与橄榄岩蛇纹石化后形成的蚀变超镁铁质岩相关的几个地点发现了蛇纹岩。此外,由于热液侵入石灰岩等沉积岩,形成了石油和金刚石石英等稀有宝石之一;方解石也以狗齿晶体的形式存在于石灰岩中。而蓝铜矿、孔雀石和黄铜矿则形成于毗邻玄武岩的Manjawi、Nal和Sonaro铜和硫化物矿氧化带的次生矿床。绿柱石以绿色晶体形式存在于寄主岩体花岗岩中,呈斑状结构。玛瑙、碧玉、绿燧石和其他几种类型的燧石被发现与msamuange和gossan的玄武岩燧石单元有关。此外,钠辉石主要在哈扎尔甘吉镇的Nal蛇绿岩中发现,以纤维状和圆柱形晶体的形式与白云岩岩脉的裂缝和孔洞伴生。在索纳罗地区贝拉蛇绿岩的变质底岩中,大理岩和石英岩与蛇绿岩演化时期形成的绿片岩、角闪岩等变质岩相相结合。伟晶岩辉长岩中,在Ornach交叉区附近的寄主岩辉长岩中发现了长条形、棱柱状的黑色辉长岩晶体,在Ornach地区的玄武岩与辉长岩过渡带中发现了前辉长岩宝石。
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引用次数: 0
An Assessment of Groundwater Quality for Drinking Purpose in Tando Adam City of Sindh, Pakistan 巴基斯坦信德省坦多亚当市饮用地下水水质评价
Pub Date : 2022-01-14 DOI: 10.46660/ijeeg.vol12.iss4.2021.641
Humaira Naz, Shella Bano2, K. Memon, A. G. Sahito
The present study is aimed to assess the groundwater quality of Tando Adam city of district Sanghar, Sindh. Total twenty groundwater samples were randomly collected from handpump wells installed on different locations at various depths (50-90ft). The groundwater samples were analyzed for physicochemical and microbiological parameters to determine suitability for drinking purposes. Analytical results showed that most of water samples have elevated contents of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) exceeding the permissible limit (<1000mg/l) for drinking water. The concentration of cations (Ca+2, Mg+2, Na+ , K+ ) and anions (Cl- , HCO3 - , SO4 -2 ) were so high that World Health Organization (WHO) standards seem overcrossing in >80% water samples. Local geology, poor irrigation practices, and anthropogenic activities are responsible for higher ion concentrations in the area. Furthermore, Microbiological contamination was found positive in half of the groundwater samples due to sewage contamination, poor sanitation and dumping of waste near well sites. The groundwater quality of the study area is highly contaminated and not suitable for human consumption but despite being commonly used for drinking purpose.
本研究的目的是评价信德省桑哈尔省坦多亚当市的地下水质量。总共从安装在不同位置、不同深度(50-90英尺)的手泵井中随机收集了20个地下水样本。对地下水样品进行了理化和微生物参数分析,以确定其是否适合饮用。分析结果显示,大部分水样的总溶解固体(TDS)含量均超过容许上限(80%水样)。当地的地质、不良的灌溉方式和人为活动是该地区离子浓度较高的原因。此外,由于污水污染、卫生条件差和在井场附近倾倒废物,一半的地下水样本中发现微生物污染呈阳性。研究区地下水水质受到严重污染,不适宜人类饮用,但仍被广泛用于饮用。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology
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