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Effect of varying temperature increases on the microbial community of Pleistocene and Holocene permafrost 不同温度升高对更新世和全新世永久冻土微生物群落的影响
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101096
Lan Anh Catherine Nguyen , Go Iwahana , Shinji Fukuda , Koyomi Nakazawa , Kenjiro Tadakuma , Josephine Galipon

The total area covered by permafrost has been continually decreasing over the past decades. This study investigates the effect of various temperature increases on the microbiome of permafrost sampled at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Permafrost Tunnel site in Fox, Alaska, USA, corresponding to the Holocene (around 8000 years before present (ybp)) and Pleistocene (around 36,000 ybp), respectively. The soil was subjected to two thawing time courses, with temperature increasing from −4 °C to either +4 °C or +25 °C, and total nucleic acid was extracted at each time point. Consistent with previous 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing studies on the Permafrost Tunnel, the Pleistocene was dominated by Clostridia, while the Holocene was mainly composed of Clostridia, Bacteroidia and Alphaproteobacteria at −4 °C. Thawing at +25 °C resulted in divergent microbial profiles for permafrost of both ages, with the Pleistocene becoming more similar to the active layer, while the Holocene was relatively less impacted. Prediction of metabolic function revealed that bacteria from the Holocene permafrost activated degradation pathways upon thawing at +25 °C, while bacteria from the Pleistocene were more involved in amino-acid biosynthesis pathways, suggesting different mechanisms of adaptation.

过去几十年来,永久冻土覆盖的总面积一直在持续减少。本研究调查了在美国阿拉斯加福克斯冷区研究与工程实验室(CRREL)永久冻土隧道(Permafrost Tunnel)取样的永久冻土微生物组受不同温度升高影响的情况,这些永久冻土分别对应全新世(距今约 8000 年)和更新世(距今约 3.6 万年)。土壤经过两个解冻时间过程,温度从-4 °C升至+4 °C或+25 °C,并在每个时间点提取总核酸。与之前对永久冻土隧道进行的 16S rRNA 扩增子测序研究结果一致,在-4 °C时,更新世以梭状芽胞杆菌为主,而全新世则主要由梭状芽胞杆菌、类杆菌和副变形菌组成。在+25 °C的解冻过程中,两个时代的冻土层的微生物特征出现了分化,更新世的冻土层与活动层更加相似,而全新世的冻土层受到的影响相对较小。对新陈代谢功能的预测显示,全新世永久冻土的细菌在+25 °C解冻时激活了降解途径,而更新世的细菌则更多地参与氨基酸生物合成途径,这表明了不同的适应机制。
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引用次数: 0
Food life history and cold storage in Greater Beringia. Part I: Preliminary interdisciplinary investigation 大白令陆的食物生活史和冷藏 第一部分:初步跨学科调查
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101092

Cold storage of food using a natural cold environment (i.e., frozen ground, ice, snow, and freezing air) is globally found to be compatible with the local environment, and within the cultural traditions of communities. Our interdisciplinary project, focusing on four areas from Beringia (Alaska and easternmost Siberia) to the middle latitudes (Mongolia and Japan) of the northern hemisphere, aims to 1) document the variations and commonalities in the history, present situations, and future concerns of cold storage facilities, 2) review the roles and functionalities of the practice through the “Food Life History” concept, a new framework to address local food issues in a global context on the history of interactions between humanity and the environment, and 3) co-produce knowledge and strategies to facilitate cold storage practices for local adaptation to environmental and economic challenges. In this preliminary study conducted from 2021 to 2023, we initiated communication with local leaders and knowledge-bearers, examined current conditions, and installed temperature monitors in cold storage structures where available. The results illustrate the presence of practices of various types, specifications, and conditions, commonly challenged by environmental changes both natural (e.g., permafrost thawing and ground wetting) and social (e.g., modern technologies, education, and economy).

在全球范围内,人们发现利用自然寒冷环境(即冰冻地面、冰、雪和冷冻空气)冷藏食物符合当地环境和社区文化传统。我们的跨学科项目侧重于北半球从白令陆(阿拉斯加和西伯利亚最东部)到中纬度(蒙古和日本)的四个地区,旨在 1) 记录冷藏设施的历史、现状和未来关注点的差异和共性、2)通过 "食物生命史 "概念审视冷藏实践的作用和功能,这是一个新的框架,可在全球背景下,根据人类与环境之间的互动历史来解决当地的食物问题;以及 3)共同创造知识和战略,促进冷藏实践,使当地适应环境和经济挑战。在 2021 年至 2023 年进行的这项初步研究中,我们与当地领导人和知识传承者进行了沟通,考察了当前的条件,并在有条件的冷藏库中安装了温度监测器。研究结果表明,在自然(如永久冻土融化和地面湿化)和社会(如现代技术、教育和经济)环境变化的共同挑战下,存在着各种类型、规格和条件的做法。
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引用次数: 0
Improving the sustainability of remote arctic communities with high-energy-efficiency houses 用高能效房屋改善北极偏远社区的可持续性
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101101
Osawa Hisato , Satoshi Oike , Taro Mori

Qaanaaq, a remote community in Greenland, faces significant challenges in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) due to its extremely high heating demands, reliance on diesel fuel, limited transportation options, declining population, and shortage of skilled labor in the construction industry. Addressing these issues is particularly complex due to the harsh climate and limited resources. In this study, we propose a strategy to achieve SDGs in Qaanaaq by replacing 263 single-family homes with 66 highly insulated multi-family nearly zero-energy apartment houses (n-ZEAHs) and installing rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Simulation results indicate that replacing homes with n-ZEAHs could reduce annual heating energy consumption by 9575 MWh and that the rooftop PV systems could offset approximately 57% of annual electricity sales, significantly improving Qaanaaq's energy security. However, field measurements revealed that indoor humidity in n-ZEAHs was low and that CO2 and PM10 levels occasionally exceeded standards. Additionally, the rooftop PV systems may not fully meet monthly electricity demands during certain seasons. To address these issues, it will be necessary to introduce appropriate ventilation systems and consider the implementation of combined systems that integrate other renewable energy sources and batteries. Given the limited availability of skilled technicians in Qaanaaq, simple and user-friendly systems are preferred. The findings of this study provide valuable insights on how to achieve SDGs in cold and remote climate communities like Qaanaaq.

格陵兰的一个偏远社区 Qaanaaq 在实现可持续发展目标(SDGs)方面面临着巨大挑战,原因是其供暖需求极高、对柴油的依赖、交通选择有限、人口减少以及建筑业熟练劳动力短缺。由于气候恶劣、资源有限,解决这些问题尤为复杂。在本研究中,我们提出了一项在 Qaanaaq 实现可持续发展目标的战略,即用 66 栋高度隔热的多户近零能耗公寓房(n-ZEAHs)取代 263 栋单户住宅,并安装屋顶太阳能光伏系统。模拟结果表明,用 n-ZEAHs 代替住宅可减少 9575 兆瓦时的年供暖能耗,屋顶光伏系统可抵消约 57% 的年售电量,从而显著提高 Qaanaaq 的能源安全。然而,实地测量显示,n-ZEAHs 的室内湿度较低,二氧化碳和 PM10 水平偶尔会超标。此外,在某些季节,屋顶光伏系统可能无法完全满足每月的电力需求。为了解决这些问题,有必要引入适当的通风系统,并考虑实施整合其他可再生能源和电池的组合系统。鉴于 Qaanaaq 熟练技术人员有限,最好采用简单易用的系统。这项研究的结果为如何在卡纳克这样气候寒冷的偏远社区实现可持续发展目标提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Cold winds in the north: Three perspectives on the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on security and international relations in the Arctic 北方寒风凛冽:从三个角度看俄罗斯乌克兰战争对北极地区安全和国际关系的影响
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101050

The article presents three perspectives on how Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has impacted international relations and security in the Arctic: a North European, a pan-Arctic and a Japanese-cum-North Pacific. We find a significant impact on the security situation in Northern Europe, including the European Arctic, notably in the Finish and Swedish decisions to join NATO. The consequences have been more limited from the circumpolar Arctic perspective, with the interruption of cooperation in the Arctic Council and in the international use of the Northern Sea Route as the most significant. Also from the Japanese perspective, the direct impact of the war has been more limited than in Northern Europe. Our analysis of Japan confirms, however, that both Arctic states and stakeholders seem to have adopted a wait and see approach to key issues, notably the future of the Arctic Council. The aim is likely to preserve the important gains made in Arctic governance in the last decades. How much reengagement with Russia will be politically palatable, and how long Russia's constructive approach to Arctic cooperation will last, remains to be seen, however. The political winds in the north are cold, but like the climate, not as cold as one could expect.

文章从三个角度阐述了俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰如何影响北极地区的国际关系和安全:北欧、泛北极和日本暨北太平洋。我们发现,俄罗斯的入侵对北欧(包括欧洲北极地区)的安全形势产生了重大影响,尤其是对芬兰和瑞典加入北约的决定产生了重大影响。从北极圈的角度来看,其影响较为有限,其中最重要的是北极理事会合作的中断和北方航道的国际使用。从日本的角度来看,战争的直接影响也比北欧有限。然而,我们对日本的分析证实,北极国家和利益相关者似乎都对关键问题采取了观望态度,尤其是北极理事会的未来。这样做的目的可能是维护过去几十年在北极治理方面取得的重要成果。然而,与俄罗斯的重新接触在政治上有多大的可接受性,以及俄罗斯对北极合作的建设性态度能持续多久,仍有待观察。北方的风很冷,但和气候一样,并没有想象中那么冷。
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引用次数: 0
Can dwarf birch (Betula nana) growth rings be used as indicators of permafrost degradation? 矮桦树(Betula nana)的生长年轮能否用作永久冻土退化的指标?
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101098
H.W. Linderholm , C. Leifsson , M. Fuentes , M.P. Björkman

Accelerating Arctic permafrost thaw results in increasing methane emissions affecting regional and global climates, but the rate of permafrost disappearance can be difficult to estimate with remote sensing, field surveys and modelling. Here we investigate if the annual growth rings of the shrub Betula nana (dwarf birch) may be used to detect and monitor near-surface permafrost degradation. Whole B. nana samples were collected at Latnjajávri and Corrvosjávri, northernmost Sweden, and their annual growth rings were analysed regarding their potential as permafrost indicators. Permafrost disappeared in Latnjajávri between 1993 and 2001, whereas Corrvosjávri lost its frozen ground decades earlier. Annual growth rings from more than twenty B. nana shrubs at each site were measured and crossdated by serial sectioning, and then averaged into two separate shrub-ring chronologies. Growth rates were higher at Corrvosjávri than at Latnjajávri. Analysing the 1972–2015 period disclosed a stronger climate-growth relationship at Corrvosjávri, with significant correlations with summer temperatures. In Latnjajávri the association with climate was much weaker before the permafrost disappeared, but afterwards reached similar levels as at Corrvosjávri. Our results suggest that changes in the B. nana growth-climate relationship may be used to indicate permafrost degradation. Moreover, the strong correlation between summer temperature and shrub growth after disappearance of permafrost supports previous research that B. nana ring widths are useful climate proxies.

北极永久冻土加速融化会导致甲烷排放量增加,从而影响区域和全球气候,但永久冻土消失的速度很难通过遥感、实地调查和建模来估算。在此,我们研究了灌木矮桦树(Betula nana)的年轮是否可用于探测和监测近地表永久冻土的退化。我们在瑞典最北端的 Latnjajávri 和 Corrvosjávri 采集了矮桦树的完整样本,并对其年轮作为永久冻土指标的潜力进行了分析。Latnjajávri 的永久冻土层在 1993 年至 2001 年间消失,而 Corrvosjávri 的冻土层则在几十年前就已消失。在每个地点测量了二十多个 B. nana 灌木的年轮,并通过连续切片法确定了交叉年代,然后将其平均分为两个独立的灌木年轮。Corrvosjávri的生长率高于Latnjajávri。对 1972-2015 年期间的分析表明,Corrvosjávri 的气候与生长关系更为密切,与夏季气温有显著相关性。在 Latnjajávri,永久冻土消失之前,气候与生长的关系要弱得多,但之后达到了与 Corrvosjávri 相似的水平。我们的研究结果表明,红叶石楠生长与气候关系的变化可以用来指示永久冻土的退化。此外,永久冻土消失后夏季温度与灌木生长之间的强相关性也支持了之前的研究,即裸冠花环宽度是有用的气候代用指标。
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引用次数: 0
A research on the Turkish shipyards in the Arctic: Opportunities and challenges 北极地区土耳其造船厂研究:机遇与挑战
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101100
Ebru Caymaz

The Arctic region has been experiencing an extensive transformation and several economic opportunities have emerged due to the shrinking sea ice. While the Arctic Ocean has become more convenient for navigation, both Arctic and non-Arctic states have updated their Arctic policies according to recent developments. There has been a substantial increase in the number of studies studying three main Arctic sea routes: Northwest Passage (NWP), Northeast Passage (NEP), and Trans-Polar Sea Route (TSR). Albeit the existence of contradictory results, the interest in Arctic shipping presents a growing trend. The Turkish shipyards increasingly participate in tenders as well. While Çelik Tekne Shipyard stands out as the first Turkish shipyard to win the shipbuilding tender in accordance with polar conditions, a significant increase has been observed in the number of shipyards within the Arctic shipping tenders since 2018. In addition to Atlas and Akdeniz Shipyards, producing ice-class vehicles in accordance with the requirements of the Polar Code, it is possible to multiply examples from Beşiktaş Shipyard, which built ice class fuel ships, Sanmar Shipyard, which won the icebreaker tugboat tender, and Sefine and Kuzey Star Shipyards, which participated in the icebreaker tenders. Besides, the participation of Turkish shipyards as sole contractors in the Russian Arctic as of 2021 indicates their determination to become active actors in the Arctic shipping industry. Accordingly, this paper discusses the opportunities and challenges of Arctic shipping based on the Turkish case.

北极地区一直在经历着广泛的变化,由于海冰的缩小,出现了一些经济机会。在北冰洋的航行变得更加便利的同时,北极国家和非北极国家都根据最新发展更新了北极政策。对北极三条主要航道的研究数量大幅增加:西北航道(NWP)、东北航道(NEP)和跨极地航道(TSR)。尽管存在相互矛盾的结果,但对北极航运的兴趣呈现出不断增长的趋势。土耳其造船厂也越来越多地参与投标。虽然Çelik Tekne造船厂是土耳其第一家赢得符合极地条件造船招标的造船厂,但自2018年以来,参与北极航运招标的造船厂数量显著增加。除了阿特拉斯(Atlas)和阿克德尼兹(Akdeniz)造船厂按照极地规范的要求生产冰级车辆外,还可以举出建造冰级燃料船的贝希克塔斯(Beşiktaş)造船厂、中标破冰拖船的桑马尔(Sanmar)造船厂以及参与破冰船招标的塞菲内(Sefine)和库泽星(Kuzey Star)造船厂等多个例子。此外,截至 2021 年,土耳其造船厂作为唯一承包商参与了俄罗斯北极地区的活动,这表明他们决心成为北极航运业的积极参与者。因此,本文根据土耳其的案例讨论了北极航运的机遇和挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Subnational governments and non-state actors in environmental governance: Japan, Russia, and the Northern fur seal 环境治理中的国家以下各级政府和非国家行为者:日本、俄罗斯和北方海狗
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101099
M. Lomaeva , J. Saunavaara , Y. Mitani , T. Nakajima

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 put to test the North Pacific regional governance structure, with environmental cooperation overshadowed by security concerns. In this paper, the central government, subnational and non-state actors' potential in finding ways out of environmental governance crises is explored. The authors turn for possible clues to the Northern fur seal conservation and management regimes, which existed in 1911–40 and 1957–84 and laid the groundwork for marine wildlife conservation and management in the North Pacific, in the century replete with military conflicts and international tension. The focus is on Japan and Russia's subnational and non-state actors (private companies, experts, NGOs and indigenous communities), who have received much less attention than their US and Canadian counterparts. Their roles in negotiation, operation and dismantlement of these regimes, are analyzed in domestic and international contexts by applying Putnam's “two-level game” metaphor. Their motives and tactics, interconnections and clout are examined in the light of both states' domestic and foreign policy goals and constraints, and regional and global trends in environmental governance. The recent multi-actor undertakings for marine mammal conservation and management in Japan and Russia are also explored from the multilevel governance perspective. It is hoped that the current diplomatic deadlock may be overcome by utilizing sub-state and supra-state frameworks and channels for communication.

2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,使北太平洋地区的治理结构面临考验,安全问题使环境合作蒙上了阴影。本文探讨了中央政府、次国家和非国家行为体在寻找环境治理危机出路方面的潜力。在充满军事冲突和国际紧张局势的世纪里,作者转而从北方海狗保护和管理制度中寻找可能的线索,这些制度存在于 1911-40 年和 1957-84 年,为北太平洋海洋野生动物保护和管理奠定了基础。重点是日本和俄罗斯的次国家和非国家行为者(私营公司、专家、非政府组织和土著社区),与美国和加拿大的同行相比,他们受到的关注要少得多。通过运用普特南的 "两级博弈 "隐喻,在国内和国际背景下分析了他们在这些制度的谈判、运作和解体中所扮演的角色。根据两国的国内和外交政策目标和制约因素,以及地区和全球环境治理趋势,对它们的动机和策略、相互联系和影响力进行了研究。还从多层次治理的角度探讨了日本和俄罗斯最近在海洋哺乳动物保护和管理方面采取的多方行动。希望通过利用次国家和超国家框架和沟通渠道,打破目前的外交僵局。
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引用次数: 0
First observations on airborne prokaryotes in a subArctic Atlantic marine area 在亚北极大西洋海域首次观测到空气中的原核生物
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101104
Maurizio Azzaro , Carmen Rizzo , Giovanna Maimone , Maria Papale , Alessandro Ciro Rappazzo , Angelina Lo Giudice , Alessandro Cosenza , Matteo Feltracco , Maya Petricciuolo , Ermanno Federici , Vito Vitale

Among extreme environments, bioaerosol includes a wide range of primary atmospheric organic particles associated with and emitted by living and dead organisms. Bioaerosol samples were collected along two transects at a subArctic Atlantic spatial scale, including the eastern Fram Strait and the Greenland, Norwegian, and North Seas. This study was aimed at first estimating microscopically the prokaryotic abundance, biomass and phenotypic traits, along with the number of potential viable and respiring cells. Moreover, physiological profiles at community level were assessed. Prokaryotic abundance ranged from 104 to 107 cells m−3, with the predominance of small sized cells (0.1 μm3). Prokaryotic biomass reached higher values (mean value 233 μg C m−3) in relation to the occurrence of large sized rods. Overall, the percentage of the viable cells was lower than the dead ones, while respiring cells were in lower abundance than total cells. The physiological profiles revealed various potential metabolic pathways among the samples, highlighting the utilization of phosphate-carbon, carboxylic and amino acids. These first results on the metabolism and physiology of microbes, which survived transport in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, suggest that bioaerosol constitutes an extremely dynamic environment of remarkable ecological interest, also considering future global warming scenarios.

在极端环境中,生物气溶胶包括与生物体和死亡生物体相关并由生物体和死亡生物体排放的各种初级大气有机颗粒。生物气溶胶样本是沿着亚北极大西洋空间尺度的两个横断面收集的,包括弗拉姆海峡东部以及格陵兰、挪威和北海。这项研究旨在首先从显微镜下估计原核生物的丰度、生物量和表型特征,以及潜在的可存活和可呼吸细胞的数量。此外,还对群落层面的生理特征进行了评估。原核生物丰度在 10 到 10 个细胞 m 之间,以小细胞(0.1 μm)为主。原核生物的生物量达到较高值(平均值为 233 μg C m),这与大尺寸棒状体的出现有关。总体而言,存活细胞的百分比低于死亡细胞,而呼吸细胞的数量低于细胞总数。生理特征显示了样本中各种潜在的代谢途径,突出了对磷酸-碳、羧酸和氨基酸的利用。这些关于在北半球大气中幸存下来的微生物的新陈代谢和生理学的首次研究结果表明,生物气溶胶构成了一个极富活力的环境,具有显著的生态意义,同时也考虑到了未来全球变暖的情况。
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引用次数: 0
Brood patch size as a field indicator for feather mercury concentration, but not plastic ingestion, in a harvested seabird of the high Arctic: The little auk Alle alle 育雏区大小是北极高纬度地区被捕获海鸟羽毛汞浓度的现场指标,而不是塑料摄入量的现场指标:小鸥 Alle alle
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101053

Northwest Greenland societies substantially rely on subsistence harvest, a part of which consists of little auks (Alle alle), an abundant seabird in the Arctic. Although little auks inhabit remote regions, they are prone to accumulating mercury (Hg) in their tissues and ingesting plastics from their environment while feeding. This entails a broad array of health-related issues, from the birds themselves to their local predators including humans. Here, we examined whether Hg and plastic contamination in little auks were influenced by the birds' age class and breeding status, mirrored by brood patch presence and size. Feather Hg concentrations were higher in birds with large brood patches (adults, currently breeding), compared to younger or non-breeding birds. Feather Hg concentrations also positively correlated with nitrogen stable isotope values in feathers, indicative of trophic position fed in the previous summer. Among the 13 examined auks’ gastrointestinal tract, two (15.4 %) contained large polyethylene fragments (6.55 × 4.10 mm, 49.45 mg on average); their occurrence was not found to relate to brood patch size. Although future research is needed on Hg accumulation in internal tissues, our results suggest that consuming adult little auks and the birds' gastrointestinal tracts may increase health-related risks for Arctic communities.

格陵兰岛西北部的社会主要依赖自给自足的收获,其中一部分是北极地区丰富的海鸟--小海鸥(Alle alle)。虽然小海鸥栖息在偏远地区,但它们的组织中很容易积累汞(Hg),并在进食时摄入环境中的塑料。这给鸟类本身以及包括人类在内的当地捕食者带来了一系列广泛的健康问题。在此,我们研究了小白鹭体内的汞和塑料污染是否受鸟类年龄等级和繁殖状况的影响,并通过育雏区的存在和大小进行了反映。与年龄较小或未繁殖的鸟类相比,有大型育雏区的鸟类(成年鸟,目前正在繁殖)羽毛中的汞浓度较高。羽毛中的汞浓度还与羽毛中的氮稳定同位素值呈正相关,这表明前一个夏季觅食的营养位置。在检查的 13 只海鸥的胃肠道中,有两只(15.4%)含有大块聚乙烯碎片(6.55 × 4.10 毫米,平均 49.45 毫克);这些碎片的出现与育雏区的大小无关。尽管未来还需要对汞在内部组织中的积累进行研究,但我们的研究结果表明,食用成年小海鸥和鸟类的胃肠道可能会增加北极地区的健康风险。
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引用次数: 0
Regional ensemble of CMIP6 global climate models for Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, Northern Eurasia 欧亚大陆北部萨哈(雅库特)共和国 CMIP6 全球气候模型区域集合
IF 1.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2024.101066

Future climate projections based on multi-model ensemble approach are seen as more reliable, but not all models are equally performant at reproducing climate features at a regional scale. An optimal regional GCM ensemble was developed for Sakha (Yakutia) Republic based on error statistics and spatial correlation metrics. Historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 48 global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate model quality compared to mean annual air temperature (MAAT) reanalysis data for 1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010 reference periods, and the MAAT change between 1961-1990 and 1981–2010, ΔT81-61. The best-performing reanalysis, GHCN-CAMS, was validated using observational data. This five-member ensemble includes CESM2-WACCM, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, INM-CM5-0, MPI-ESM1-2-HR models, weighted by Pearson's coefficient of spatial correlation between observed and modeled ΔT81-61 fields. Model weighting based on spatial correlation metrics improved the performance of the developed multi-model regional ensemble, which can be used in projecting future climate under different climate change scenarios.

基于多模式集合方法的未来气候预测被认为更加可靠,但并非所有模式在再现区域尺度的气候特征方面都具有相同的性能。根据误差统计和空间相关性指标,为萨哈(雅库特)共和国开发了一个最佳区域 GCM 组合。利用 48 个全球气候模式(GCM)的历史耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 版(CMIP6)模拟结果,与 1961-1990、1971-2000 和 1981-2010 年参考期的年平均气温(MAAT)再分析数据以及 1961-1990 年和 1981-2010 年之间的 MAAT 变化 ΔT 相比,对模式质量进行了评估。利用观测数据验证了性能最好的再分析--GHCN-CAMS。这个五人集合包括 CESM2-WACCM、CMCC-ESM2、CNRM-CM6-1-HR、INM-CM5-0、MPI-ESM1-2-HR 模式,按观测和模拟 ΔT 场之间的空间相关性皮尔逊系数加权。基于空间相关性指标的模式加权提高了所开发的多模式区域集合的性能,可用于预测不同气候变化情景下的未来气候。
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引用次数: 0
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