Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America最新文献

The spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the tropical Pacific plays a central role in shaping global climate through its influence on atmospheric circulation, rainfall, and extreme weather. Accurately simulating this pattern is critical for reliable near-term climate projections, yet persistent discrepancies between models and observations remain. While global warming is unequivocal, satellite-era observations reveal pronounced cooling in the southeastern tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean, contrary to the warming simulated by most CMIP models. These discrepancies raise concerns about the reliability of current models in projecting near-term regional climate change. Here, we present the historical simulation with the ICON coupled model at a 5 km ocean and 10 km atmosphere grid-spacing. ICON successfully reproduces the observed SST trends, including cooling in both the Southern Ocean and the southeastern tropical Pacific. Its fidelity is enabled by the direct representation of eddy heat transport across the Antarctic Circumpolar fronts and realistic stratocumulus cloud feedbacks in the subtropical southeast Pacific. These findings highlight the importance of fine spatial resolution in capturing the mechanisms of heat uptake in the eddy-rich Southern Ocean. Our results suggest a pathway for resolving long-standing biases in historical simulations and improving confidence in near-term climate projections.

Human-induced climate change has increased wildfire risks, associated air pollution, and health damages in North America. Despite its large potential for damage, climate-induced wildfire smoke is rarely incorporated in estimates of the societal costs of climate change. We develop an integrated framework to estimate air pollution from climate-induced wildfire smoke (fine particulate matter, PM_2.5) and the associated mortality damage in the United States across different trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and global mean surface temperature. Our framework accounts for fire-vegetation feedbacks by empirically estimating the effects of past fires on future burn probability. Under 3 °C of global warming (relative to 1850-1900), we estimate that smoke exposure will lead to 64,000 deaths annually in the United States (95% CI: 33,500 to 112,300; calculated using historical population), a 60% increase above estimated annual smoke deaths during 2011-2020. Limiting global warming to 2 °C reduces smoke-related mortality by 14% (8,900 deaths per year) relative to our estimate for 3 °C. For every additional tonne of CO₂ emissions in 2025, we calculate a net present value of monetized damage (i.e., a partial social cost of carbon) of $11.2 (95%CI: [Formula: see text]$1.1 to $41.6; 2020USD) due to climate-induced wildfire smoke mortality in the United States. Incorporating wildfire smoke damages into existing nonwildfire damage estimates increases the US domestic social cost of carbon by 74%, substantially increasing the expected benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation within the United States.

In early breast cancer surgery (EBC), free margins significantly decrease local recurrence in breast-conserving surgery (BCS), while metastatic status of sentinel lymph node (SLN) impacts axillary management. However, intraoperative visualization of margins and metastatic SLNs (mSLNs) remains challenging. Here, we report a second-window near-infrared (NIR-II) fluorescence probe by conjugating ICG to TROP2-targeting cyclic peptide (TTP-ICG). Our results showed that TTP-ICG specifically binds to TROP2-expressing cells in vitro and identifies TROP2-positive tumors in vivo. In addition, TTP-ICG enabled efficient intraoperative evaluation of surgical margins and visualization of mSLNs at a submillimeter level in preclinical models. Additionally, we optimized the rapid incubation imaging method (RIIM) by shortening the procedure to less than 8 min, illustrating TTP-ICG's high performance in distinguishing malignant from normal tissues/fibroadenoma lesions as well as detecting metastatic lymph nodes in a cohort of 59 patients. Thus, this TROP2-targeting probe demonstrates its significance for fluorescence imaging-guided surgery with dual applicability in EBC, providing translational potential for further clinical decision-making.