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First characterization of upper mesophotic coral assemblages in Santo Antão (Cabo Verde, East Atlantic Ocean): Demographic and community approaches provide baseline ecological data
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103432
Daniel Gómez-Gras , Núria Viladrich , Andrea Gori , Jean-Baptiste Ledoux , Paula Jiménez , Teresa Amaro , Cristina Linares
Preserving healthy marine ecosystems is crucial for human societies, especially in resource-dependent locations like Santo Antão, the most northwestern island of Cabo Verde (East Atlantic Ocean). However, effective conservation requires baseline ecological knowledge on target ecosystems, which is often lacking. This study provides the first ecological characterization of upper mesophotic coral assemblages (i.e., at depths of 30–40 m) in Santo Antão. We focused on density, size structure, and conservation status of canopy-forming coral species in two assemblages types: i) a mixed coral assemblage dominated by black corals (e.g., Stichopathes luetkeni; Brook, 1889, Tanacetipathes spinescens; Gray, 1857, or Tanacetipathes wirtzi; Opresko, 2001) and gorgonians (e.g., Leptogorgia capverdensis; Grasshoff, 1986, Leptogorgia gaini; Stiasny, 1940, Eunicella granulata; Grasshoff, 1992, or Eunicella papillifera; Milne Edwards & Haime, 1857), and ii) monospecific black coral assemblages dominated by Antipathella wollastoni (Gray, 1857) and T. spinescens, respectively. Additionally, we used a trait-based approach to characterize the functional community structure of the mixed assemblage and quantified the abundance of its main morpho-functional groups. Our results show that these assemblages are structurally complex, functionally diverse, and well-preserved. Notably, they harbor some of the densest black coral populations reported to date, with mean densities exceeding 20 colonies/m2 for some species. This suggest that the studied assemblages provide important ecosystem services to local communities, such as increasing fish biomass for artisanal fishing and enhancing aesthetic value for a sustainable diving tourism. However, further surveys at other sites are needed to assess the generalizability of these findings and support future conservation planning.
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal variation in marine plankton communities driven by environmental changes in the East China sea
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103434
Chia-Ting Chen , Pei-Chi Ho , Fan-Sian Lin , Esther Wong , Fuh-Kwo Shiah , Gwo-Ching Gong , Chih-hao Hsieh
Unicellular plankton are the foundation of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles. This study analyzed long-term observations (2009–2021) of the taxonomic composition and size structure of nano- to microplankton in the East China Sea to assess the impact of environmental changes on these communities. Over the past decade, aloricate ciliate and chain-forming diatom abundances have declined, likely due to rising sea surface temperatures and decreasing concentrations of phosphate, nitrate, and silicate. Sea surface concentrations of these nutrients and dinoflagellate biomass were positively correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, while the diatom-to-dinoflagellate ratio decreased as the PDO index increased. These findings reveal the large-scale climatic drivers of nutrient dynamics and plankton composition. The normalized biomass size spectrum (NBSS) slope was shallower in areas with higher salinities, diatom and ciliate biomasses, and diatom-to-dinoflagellate ratios, and it was steeper in areas with higher nutrient concentrations. The NBSS slopes were steeper (i.e. more smaller organisms) during winters with high nutrient concentrations, likely due to reduced light availability from high turbidity and increased grazing pressure. The 2017 summer cruise identified three spatial clusters of plankton communities that were influenced by different water masses. Cluster 1, influenced by the China Coastal Current, was dominated by athecate dinoflagellates. Clusters 2 and 3, influenced by the Taiwan Warm Current and Kuroshio Current, respectively, were dominated by diatoms. This study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring and comprehensive analyses to better understand how plankton communities will respond to climate change and anthropogenic activity.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal variation in marine plankton communities driven by environmental changes in the East China sea","authors":"Chia-Ting Chen ,&nbsp;Pei-Chi Ho ,&nbsp;Fan-Sian Lin ,&nbsp;Esther Wong ,&nbsp;Fuh-Kwo Shiah ,&nbsp;Gwo-Ching Gong ,&nbsp;Chih-hao Hsieh","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unicellular plankton are the foundation of marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles. This study analyzed long-term observations (2009–2021) of the taxonomic composition and size structure of nano- to microplankton in the East China Sea to assess the impact of environmental changes on these communities. Over the past decade, aloricate ciliate and chain-forming diatom abundances have declined, likely due to rising sea surface temperatures and decreasing concentrations of phosphate, nitrate, and silicate. Sea surface concentrations of these nutrients and dinoflagellate biomass were positively correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, while the diatom-to-dinoflagellate ratio decreased as the PDO index increased. These findings reveal the large-scale climatic drivers of nutrient dynamics and plankton composition. The normalized biomass size spectrum (NBSS) slope was shallower in areas with higher salinities, diatom and ciliate biomasses, and diatom-to-dinoflagellate ratios, and it was steeper in areas with higher nutrient concentrations. The NBSS slopes were steeper (i.e. more smaller organisms) during winters with high nutrient concentrations, likely due to reduced light availability from high turbidity and increased grazing pressure. The 2017 summer cruise identified three spatial clusters of plankton communities that were influenced by different water masses. Cluster 1, influenced by the China Coastal Current, was dominated by athecate dinoflagellates. Clusters 2 and 3, influenced by the Taiwan Warm Current and Kuroshio Current, respectively, were dominated by diatoms. This study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring and comprehensive analyses to better understand how plankton communities will respond to climate change and anthropogenic activity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"232 ","pages":"Article 103434"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143377892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pan-regional characterization of the variability in the Indonesian Seas
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2025.103436
Yuan Wang, Huijie Xue
The Indonesian Seas feature a wide spectrum of variations in hydrography and circulation. This study applies a simple frequency-based time series decomposition method on the 20-year (2000–2019) model simulation, revealing the spatial distribution of the variations in intra-seasonal, semi-annual, annual, and inter-annual bands, respectively. K-means clustering based on the decomposed variability is used to explore dynamical similarities and differences, highlighting the competing impacts of annual and inter-annual variations. The Indonesian Seas lie at a “crossroad” where the inter-annual variation dominates in a NE-SW-oriented deep-ocean regime, while the annual variation prevails in a NW-SE-oriented marginal sea regime. The latter is primarily driven by the local monsoonal winds. Moreover, annual current profiles reveal significant differences between the main and east branches of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), with annual variations being more prominent above (below) the thermocline in the main (east) branch. Overall, ITF variability is influenced by remote inter-annual factors, regional monsoonal forces, and local flow instabilities, with the semi-annual variations being minor but non-trivial.
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引用次数: 0
Field observations of internal waves triggered sediment movements at the northern South China Sea continental slope 南海北部陆坡内波引发沉积物运动的野外观测
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103412
Gaibo Zhao , Changwei Bian , Wensheng Jiang , Tao Wang , Xiaolei Liu , Jiwei Tian , Yonggang Jia
Internal ocean waves, such as internal tides and internal solitary waves (ISWs), have strong horizontal and vertical velocities and play an important role in ocean energy and material exchange. Field observations indicated that internal waves had a significant effect on hydrodynamics and sediment transport on the continental shelf. However, there remained a lack of field observations on how internal waves affect sediment transport on continental slopes. In this study, a seabed observation system was set up on the continental slope of the South China Sea for 13 days, which measured the high spatiotemporal resolution velocity and mixing of the internal tides and ISWs and sediment movements in the bottom boundary layer. The results showed that the internal tides and ISWs caused strong flows of more than 0.20 m/s near the seabed of the slope, which was much higher than the local sub-inertial currents (0.03 m/s) and barotropic tides (0.03 m/s). The velocity enhancement caused by internal tides and ISWs increased the bottom shear stress from 0.01 to 0.08 Pa. When the internal tidal velocity increased, the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) increased substantially from 5 mg/L to more than 40 mg/L. When the strongest ISWs passed through the observation site, the SSC increased several times, reaching 19 mg/L. Both internal tides and ISWs agitated seabed sediment and transported it downwards along the slope with sediment transport flux of 0.26 × 10-3 and 0.08 × 10-3 kg m−2 s−1, respectively.
内海浪,如内潮和内孤立波(ISWs),具有很强的水平和垂直速度,在海洋能量和物质交换中起着重要作用。野外观测表明,内波对大陆架的水动力和泥沙输运有显著影响。然而,关于内波如何影响大陆斜坡上的沉积物输运,仍然缺乏实地观测。本研究在南海陆坡建立了为期13天的海底观测系统,观测了海内潮、isw的高时空分辨率速度和混合以及海底边界层的沉积物运动。结果表明,内潮和isw在坡面海底附近引起了大于0.20 m/s的强流,远高于局地亚惯性流(0.03 m/s)和正压潮(0.03 m/s)。内潮和isw引起的速度增强使海底剪应力从0.01 Pa增加到0.08 Pa。随着内潮速度的增加,悬沙浓度(SSC)从5 mg/L大幅增加到40 mg/L以上。当最强的isw经过观测点时,SSC增加了几倍,达到19 mg/L。内潮和isw对海底沉积物进行了搅拌并沿坡面向下输送,输沙通量分别为0.26 × 10-3和0.08 × 10-3 kg m−2 s−1。
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引用次数: 0
Observing ENSO-modulated tides from space
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103410
Haidong Pan , Tengfei Xu , Zexun Wei
The understanding of sea level variability is fundamental for coastal communities with high population density. As important parts of sea levels, tides are often overlooked because they tend to be regarded as simple periodic oscillations by numerous studies. In fact, due to the interference of various non-astronomical factors, observed tides are non-stationary and display multi-time scale variability. Here, we focus on inter-annual tidal variations induced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the western Pacific. Although satellite altimeters have been widely used in tidal research, to date, inter-annual tidal changes from satellite altimeters are never reported. Classical harmonic analysis (CHA) model with moving windows is inappropriate for satellite altimeter records due to tidal aliasing originated from long-period sampling intervals. In this paper, we successfully quantify the influences of ENSO on tides from multi-satellite altimeters through a revised harmonic analysis (RHA) model which directly builds ENSO forcing into the basic functions of CHA. To eliminate mathematical artifacts caused by over-fitting, Lasso regularization is applied in the RHA model to replace widely-used ordinary least squares. The performances of RHA are generally better than those of CHA as a result of considering the impacts of ENSO. The combination of RHA and satellite altimeters extends the studies on tidal evolution using spatially limited tide gauges. Compared to diurnal tides, it is found that semi-diurnal tides are more vulnerable to ENSO in the western Pacific. Of note, both linear and non-linear tidal responses to ENSO show significant spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, as a universal method, ENSO index used in this study can be replaced by other factors such as river flow and sea waves to explore tidal evolution driven by other physical processes.
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引用次数: 0
Community structure of fish larvae associated with advections of the Kuroshio and its neighboring waters 黑潮及其邻近水域平流相关的鱼类幼虫群落结构
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103386
Toru Kobari , Yusuke Manako , Airi Hara , Kaori Yamanoue , Takafumi Azuma , Ryuji Fukuda , Yi-Chen Wang , Masafumi Kodama , Gen Kume
The Kuroshio has been long thought to be disadvantageous as nursery grounds for larval fishes due to the low plankton standing stocks under the oligotrophic conditions. Despite of the potential risk for survival and growth, early life stages of various fishes appear abundantly in the Kuroshio and its neighboring waters. Here, we report what kind of taxonomic groups establish community structure of larval fishes in the Continental shelf waters (CW) and the Kuroshio (KW). 16 orders and 78 families were classified in the present study. Mesopelagic fishes more abundantly appeared in the KW than in the CW, while larval fish abundance was not different between the two areas. Multivariate analysis demonstrated the regional difference of the taxonomic compositions, represented by Callionymidae, Bothidae, Labridae and Bregmacerotidae for the CW and Gonostomatidae, Myctophidae and Notosudidae for the KW. Abundance of fish larvae to ambient salinity exhibited significantly positive correlations for Gonostomatidae, Sigmops gracilis and Myctophum orientale predominated in the KW and negative correlations for Labridae appeared abundantly in the CW. These results suggest that mixture of advected specimens from the coastal and Kuroshio waters also contribute to larval fish community with high biodiversity and comparable abundance between the Kuroshio and its neighboring waters.
长期以来,人们一直认为黑潮在低营养条件下浮游生物存量低,不利于幼鱼的育苗。尽管存在生存和生长的潜在风险,但各种鱼类的早期生命阶段在黑潮及其邻近水域大量出现。本文报道了在大陆架水域(CW)和黑潮水域(KW)中,什么样的分类类群建立了幼鱼的群落结构。本研究共分为16目78科。中上层鱼类在长江流域的丰度高于长江流域,而幼鱼丰度在两个地区之间没有差异。多因素分析表明,长江三角洲地区的鱼类分类组成存在显著的区域差异,长江三角洲地区的鱼类分类组成主要以卡丽蝇科、双翅蝇科、唇形蝇科和小鳞蝇科为代表,长江三角洲地区的鱼幼虫丰度与环境盐度呈显著正相关,长江三角洲地区的鱼幼虫丰度与环境盐度呈显著正相关,而长江三角洲地区的鱼幼虫丰度与环境盐度呈显著负相关。这些结果表明,来自沿海和黑潮水域的平流标本混合也有助于黑潮与邻近水域之间具有较高生物多样性和丰度的幼虫群落。
{"title":"Community structure of fish larvae associated with advections of the Kuroshio and its neighboring waters","authors":"Toru Kobari ,&nbsp;Yusuke Manako ,&nbsp;Airi Hara ,&nbsp;Kaori Yamanoue ,&nbsp;Takafumi Azuma ,&nbsp;Ryuji Fukuda ,&nbsp;Yi-Chen Wang ,&nbsp;Masafumi Kodama ,&nbsp;Gen Kume","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103386","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103386","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Kuroshio has been long thought to be disadvantageous as nursery grounds for larval fishes due to the low plankton standing stocks under the oligotrophic conditions. Despite of the potential risk for survival and growth, early life stages of various fishes appear abundantly in the Kuroshio and its neighboring waters. Here, we report what kind of taxonomic groups establish community structure of larval fishes in the Continental shelf waters (CW) and the Kuroshio (KW). 16 orders and 78 families were classified in the present study. Mesopelagic fishes more abundantly appeared in the KW than in the CW, while larval fish abundance was not different between the two areas. Multivariate analysis demonstrated the regional difference of the taxonomic compositions, represented by Callionymidae, Bothidae, Labridae and Bregmacerotidae for the CW and Gonostomatidae, Myctophidae and Notosudidae for the KW. Abundance of fish larvae to ambient salinity exhibited significantly positive correlations for Gonostomatidae, <em>Sigmops gracilis</em> and <em>Myctophum orientale</em> predominated in the KW and negative correlations for Labridae appeared abundantly in the CW. These results suggest that mixture of advected specimens from the coastal and Kuroshio waters also contribute to larval fish community with high biodiversity and comparable abundance between the Kuroshio and its neighboring waters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103386"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142788910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A decade-long flow reversal in the intergyre region of the eastern north Atlantic
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103406
César González-Pola , Raquel Somavilla , Rocío Graña , Amaia Viloria , Laura Ibáñez-Tejero
Two hydrographical shifts observed within the last two decades around north/northwestern Iberia, in the mid-latitudes of the eastern North Atlantic, reveal a contrasting behaviour of the weakly circulating reservoir known as the intergyre region. In 2005, a strong winter mixing caused an abrupt salinity increase at mid-depths corresponding to East North Atlantic Central Waters core levels (300–500 m), thus transforming this water mass into a saltier/denser variety. Such shift altered spatial density fields on a broader scale, causing this region classically described as flowing southwards and feeding the subtropical gyre to experience a lasting flow reversal. The reversal brought the region into milder and saltier southern-like conditions and weakened the strength of upwelling in southern Biscay. In 2014, freshening and cooling was observed for the first time since the early 1990s, a process enhanced in the following years accompanied by the restoration of southwards flow and southern Biscay upwelling conditions previously known. The decade-long reversal flow stage meant a temporal boost of ongoing meridionalisation trends attributed to climate change affecting ecosystems, while subsequent recovery to traditional circulation brought the region back to a classical more boreal character. We discuss the uniqueness or possible recurrence on larger timescales of this singular reversed mode circulation event.
{"title":"A decade-long flow reversal in the intergyre region of the eastern north Atlantic","authors":"César González-Pola ,&nbsp;Raquel Somavilla ,&nbsp;Rocío Graña ,&nbsp;Amaia Viloria ,&nbsp;Laura Ibáñez-Tejero","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103406","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103406","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Two hydrographical shifts observed within the last two decades around north/northwestern Iberia, in the mid-latitudes of the eastern North Atlantic, reveal a contrasting behaviour of the weakly circulating reservoir known as the intergyre region. In 2005, a strong winter mixing caused an abrupt salinity increase at mid-depths corresponding to East North Atlantic Central Waters core levels (300–500 m), thus transforming this water mass into a saltier/denser variety. Such shift altered spatial density fields on a broader scale, causing this region classically described as flowing southwards and feeding the subtropical gyre to experience a lasting flow reversal. The reversal brought the region into milder and saltier southern-like conditions and weakened the strength of upwelling in southern Biscay. In 2014, freshening and cooling was observed for the first time since the early 1990s, a process enhanced in the following years accompanied by the restoration of southwards flow and southern Biscay upwelling conditions previously known. The decade-long reversal flow stage meant a temporal boost of ongoing meridionalisation trends attributed to climate change affecting ecosystems, while subsequent recovery to traditional circulation brought the region back to a classical more boreal character. We discuss the uniqueness or possible recurrence on larger timescales of this singular reversed mode circulation event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103406"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Control of simulated ocean ecosystem indicators by biogeochemical observations
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103384
S. Ciavatta , P. Lazzari , E. Álvarez , L. Bertino , K. Bolding , J. Bruggeman , A. Capet , G. Cossarini , F. Daryabor , L. Nerger , M. Popov , J. Skákala , S. Spada , A. Teruzzi , T. Wakamatsu , V.Ç. Yumruktepe , P. Brasseur
To protect marine ecosystems threatened by climate change and anthropic stressors, it is essential to operationally monitor ocean health indicators. These are metrics synthetizing multiple marine processes relevant to the users of operational services. In this study, we assess whether selected ocean indicators simulated by operational models can be effectively constrained (i.e., controlled) by biogeochemical observations, by using a newly proposed methodological framework. The method consists in firstly screening the sensitivities of the indicators with respect to the initial conditions of the observable variables. These initial conditions are perturbed stochastically in Monte Carlo simulations of one-dimensional configurations of a multi-model ensemble. Then, the models are applied in three-dimensional ensemble assimilation experiments, where the reduction of the ensemble variance corroborates the controllability of the indicators by the observations. The method is applied to ten relevant ecosystem indicators (ranging from inorganic chemicals to plankton production), seven observation types (representing data from satellite and underwater platforms), and an ensemble of five biogeochemical models of different complexity, employed operationally by the European Copernicus Marine Service. Our results demonstrate that all the indicators are controlled by one or more types of observations. In particular, the indicators of phytoplankton phenology are controlled and improved by merged observations of surface ocean colour and chlorophyll profiles. Similar observations also control and reduce the uncertainty of the plankton community structure and production. However, we observe that the uncertainty of trophic efficiency and particulate organic carbon (POC) increases when chlorophyll-a data are assimilated. This may reflect reduced model skill, though the unavailability of relevant observations prevents a conclusive assessment. We recommend that the controllability assessment proposed here becomes a standard practice in the design of operational monitoring, reanalysis, and forecast systems. Such standardization would provide users of operational services with more accurate and precise estimates of ocean ecosystem indicators.
{"title":"Control of simulated ocean ecosystem indicators by biogeochemical observations","authors":"S. Ciavatta ,&nbsp;P. Lazzari ,&nbsp;E. Álvarez ,&nbsp;L. Bertino ,&nbsp;K. Bolding ,&nbsp;J. Bruggeman ,&nbsp;A. Capet ,&nbsp;G. Cossarini ,&nbsp;F. Daryabor ,&nbsp;L. Nerger ,&nbsp;M. Popov ,&nbsp;J. Skákala ,&nbsp;S. Spada ,&nbsp;A. Teruzzi ,&nbsp;T. Wakamatsu ,&nbsp;V.Ç. Yumruktepe ,&nbsp;P. Brasseur","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To protect marine ecosystems threatened by climate change and anthropic stressors, it is essential to operationally monitor ocean health indicators. These are metrics synthetizing multiple marine processes relevant to the users of operational services. In this study, we assess whether selected ocean indicators simulated by operational models can be effectively constrained (i.e., controlled) by biogeochemical observations, by using a newly proposed methodological framework. The method consists in firstly screening the sensitivities of the indicators with respect to the initial conditions of the observable variables. These initial conditions are perturbed stochastically in Monte Carlo simulations of one-dimensional configurations of a multi-model ensemble. Then, the models are applied in three-dimensional ensemble assimilation experiments, where the reduction of the ensemble variance corroborates the controllability of the indicators by the observations. The method is applied to ten relevant ecosystem indicators (ranging from inorganic chemicals to plankton production), seven observation types (representing data from satellite and underwater platforms), and an ensemble of five biogeochemical models of different complexity, employed operationally by the European Copernicus Marine Service. Our results demonstrate that all the indicators are controlled by one or more types of observations. In particular, the indicators of phytoplankton phenology are controlled and improved by merged observations of surface ocean colour and chlorophyll profiles. Similar observations also control and reduce the uncertainty of the plankton community structure and production. However, we observe that the uncertainty of trophic efficiency and particulate organic carbon (POC) increases when chlorophyll-a data are assimilated. This may reflect reduced model skill, though the unavailability of relevant observations prevents a conclusive assessment. We recommend that the controllability assessment proposed here becomes a standard practice in the design of operational monitoring, reanalysis, and forecast systems. Such standardization would provide users of operational services with more accurate and precise estimates of ocean ecosystem indicators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103384"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Baseline matters: Challenges and implications of different marine heatwave baselines
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103404
Kathryn E. Smith , Alex Sen Gupta , Dillon Amaya , Jessica A. Benthuysen , Michael T. Burrows , Antonietta Capotondi , Karen Filbee-Dexter , Thomas L. Frölicher , Alistair J. Hobday , Neil J. Holbrook , Neil Malan , Pippa J. Moore , Eric C.J. Oliver , Benjamin Richaud , Julio Salcedo-Castro , Dan A. Smale , Mads Thomsen , Thomas Wernberg
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), prolonged periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, significantly impact global ecosystems. However, there is ongoing debate regarding the definition of these extreme events, which is crucial for effective research and communication among marine scientists, decision-makers, and the broader public. Fundamental to all MHW analyses is a clearly defined background oceanic climate – i.e., a temperature ‘baseline’ against which the MHW is defined. While a single approach to implementing a baseline may not be suitable for all MHW research applications, the choice of a baseline for analysing MHWs must be intentional as it affects research outcomes.
This perspective examines baseline choices and discusses their implications for marine organism and ecosystem risks, and their relevance in communicating MHW characteristics and metrics to stakeholders, policymakers, and the public. In particular we analyse five different baseline approaches for computing MHW statistics, assess their technical differences, and discuss their ecological implications. Different baselines suggest widely different trends in MHW characteristics in a warming world. This would, for example, imply differences in future risk, reflective of marine organisms with different adaptive potential, thereby affecting recommendations for management strategies. We also examine the consequences of different baseline choices on ease of implementation and communication with wider audiences. Our analyses highlight the need to clearly specify a chosen baseline in MHW studies, and to be mindful of its implications for MHW statistics, practical considerations, and interpretations concerning the adaptive capacities of marine organisms, ecosystems and human systems. The challenges and implications of different MHW baselines highlighted here have similar relevance in research and communication for other branches of climate extremes.
{"title":"Baseline matters: Challenges and implications of different marine heatwave baselines","authors":"Kathryn E. Smith ,&nbsp;Alex Sen Gupta ,&nbsp;Dillon Amaya ,&nbsp;Jessica A. Benthuysen ,&nbsp;Michael T. Burrows ,&nbsp;Antonietta Capotondi ,&nbsp;Karen Filbee-Dexter ,&nbsp;Thomas L. Frölicher ,&nbsp;Alistair J. Hobday ,&nbsp;Neil J. Holbrook ,&nbsp;Neil Malan ,&nbsp;Pippa J. Moore ,&nbsp;Eric C.J. Oliver ,&nbsp;Benjamin Richaud ,&nbsp;Julio Salcedo-Castro ,&nbsp;Dan A. Smale ,&nbsp;Mads Thomsen ,&nbsp;Thomas Wernberg","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103404","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103404","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marine heatwaves (MHWs), prolonged periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, significantly impact global ecosystems. However, there is ongoing debate regarding the definition of these extreme events, which is crucial for effective research and communication among marine scientists, decision-makers, and the broader public. Fundamental to all MHW analyses is a clearly defined background oceanic climate – i.e., a temperature ‘baseline’ against which the MHW is defined. While a single approach to implementing a baseline may not be suitable for all MHW research applications, the choice of a baseline for analysing MHWs must be intentional as it affects research outcomes.</div><div>This perspective examines baseline choices and discusses their implications for marine organism and ecosystem risks, and their relevance in communicating MHW characteristics and metrics to stakeholders, policymakers, and the public. In particular we analyse five different baseline approaches for computing MHW statistics, assess their technical differences, and discuss their ecological implications. Different baselines suggest widely different trends in MHW characteristics in a warming world. This would, for example, imply differences in future risk, reflective of marine organisms with different adaptive potential, thereby affecting recommendations for management strategies. We also examine the consequences of different baseline choices on ease of implementation and communication with wider audiences. Our analyses highlight the need to clearly specify a chosen baseline in MHW studies, and to be mindful of its implications for MHW statistics, practical considerations, and interpretations concerning the adaptive capacities of marine organisms, ecosystems and human systems. The challenges and implications of different MHW baselines highlighted here have similar relevance in research and communication for other branches of climate extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103404"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A predictive krill distribution model for Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera using scaled acoustic backscatter in the Northern California Current
IF 3.8 3区 地球科学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103388
S. Derville , J.L. Fisher , R.L. Kaplan , K.S. Bernard , E.M. Phillips , L.G. Torres
Euphausiids (krill) are globally significant zooplankton prey for many commercially important or endangered predator species. In the productive upwelling system of the Northern California Current (NCC), two krill species, Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, dominate the preyscape and constitute an important food resource for many seabirds, cetaceans, and fish. In this study, we use five years of hydroacoustic and net tow data collected in the NCC to develop integrative models predicting acoustic backscatter scaled for E. pacifica or T. spinifera separately. Boosted Regression Trees and Generalized Additive Models are applied in an original ensemble hurdle framework to predict krill presence and abundance from a diverse set of topographic and oceanographic predictors. Krill metrics had significant relationships with seabed depth, distance to submarine canyons, and variables indicative of dynamic ocean conditions (e.g., total deviance explained in acoustic data: 25 % in the presence-absence model & 49 % in the abundance model). Predictions of krill abundance at 5 km resolution averaged by month indicate differential habitat preferences between the two species: T. spinifera was constrained to the continental shelf, around and inshore of the 200 m isobath, whereas E. pacifica was found in greater abundances just offshore of the 200 m isobath and into offshore water in lower abundances. E. pacifica was generally more abundant than T. spinifera (10:1.3 ratio). Both species increased in abundance in the spring and summer, followed by a rapid decline in the fall, and lowest abundances in the winter. These models can produce fine-scale spatial and year-round weekly predictions of E. pacifica and T. spinifera abundance in the NCC, which will provide essential knowledge and new spatial layers about critical ecosystem components to support research and management.
{"title":"A predictive krill distribution model for Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera using scaled acoustic backscatter in the Northern California Current","authors":"S. Derville ,&nbsp;J.L. Fisher ,&nbsp;R.L. Kaplan ,&nbsp;K.S. Bernard ,&nbsp;E.M. Phillips ,&nbsp;L.G. Torres","doi":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103388","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pocean.2024.103388","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Euphausiids (krill) are globally significant zooplankton prey for many commercially important or endangered predator species. In the productive upwelling system of the Northern California Current (NCC), two krill species, <em>Euphausia pacifica</em> and <em>Thysanoessa spinifera,</em> dominate the preyscape and constitute an important food resource for many seabirds, cetaceans, and fish. In this study, we use five years of hydroacoustic and net tow data collected in the NCC to develop integrative models predicting acoustic backscatter scaled for <em>E. pacifica</em> or <em>T. spinifera</em> separately. Boosted Regression Trees and Generalized Additive Models are applied in an original ensemble hurdle framework to predict krill presence and abundance from a diverse set of topographic and oceanographic predictors. Krill metrics had significant relationships with seabed depth, distance to submarine canyons, and variables indicative of dynamic ocean conditions (e.g., total deviance explained in acoustic data: 25 % in the presence-absence model &amp; 49 % in the abundance model). Predictions of krill abundance at 5 km resolution averaged by month indicate differential habitat preferences between the two species: <em>T. spinifera</em> was constrained to the continental shelf, around and inshore of the 200 m isobath, whereas <em>E. pacifica</em> was found in greater abundances just offshore of the 200 m isobath and into offshore water in lower abundances. <em>E. pacifica</em> was generally more abundant than <em>T. spinifera</em> (10:1.3 ratio). Both species increased in abundance in the spring and summer, followed by a rapid decline in the fall, and lowest abundances in the winter. These models can produce fine-scale spatial and year-round weekly predictions of <em>E. pacifica</em> and <em>T. spinifera</em> abundance in the NCC, which will provide essential knowledge and new spatial layers about critical ecosystem components to support research and management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":20620,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Oceanography","volume":"231 ","pages":"Article 103388"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143097086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Progress in Oceanography
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