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Sustainability Analysis of Primary Forest Areas in The Perspective of Income and Gross Domestic Regional Product Inequality (Vector Autoregressive Approach) 收入与区域生产总值不平等视角下原始林地区可持续性分析(向量自回归法)
Faradina Zevaya, Muhamad Reski Ramadan, Putri Intan Suri, Rio Rio, Fajar Hadi Pratama
Jambi Province is a province on Sumatra Island with a land area of 5,016,005 hectares, of which 2,098,535 ha are forest areas. With the potential of existing resources, Jambi province's economic growth in the last ten years has been on a positive trend, but for the period 2006 to 2018, experienced significant land degradation which causes the shrinkage of the province natural forest areas. This research aims to analyze the relationship that occurs between variables of primary forest areas, income inequality, and economic growth in Jambi Province by using the vector autoregression method followed by stationarity test, optimum lag test, cointegration test, var stability test, variance decomposition, and granger causality test. Based on the causality of the three research variables, the Granger causality test results indicate that there is a unidirectional causality between income inequality that occurs in Jambi Province and the percentage of primary forest area in Jambi Province that is still available. In addition, the results of the VAR analysis show that based on the t-statistic value, income inequality in period eight significantly affected the percentage of primary forest area in Jambi Province in the following year. Besides that, based on the coefficient, income inequality negatively affected primary forest areas the following year in period eight. The results of the Decomposition Variant test predicted that in period 1, the primary forest area variable affected 99.98% of the primary forest area variable. Income inequality had an effect of 0.02% on primary forest areas, and economic growth in period one did not affect primary forest areas. Predictions for the 10th period show that the primary forest area affects 52.62% of the primary forest area, while 29.81% and 17.56% of the primary forest area in the 10th period are affected by income inequality and economic growth. The analysis above shows the critical role of primary forests in Jambi Province for the existing inequality and economic growth in Jambi Province. Deforestation and non-optimal primary forest management can have a negative impact on the value of income inequality in Jambi Province. Therefore, a policy framework on forestry in Jambi Province is needed that involves the development of plantation forests as an effort that could overcome the decrease in wood supply.
占碑省是苏门答腊岛上的一个省,土地面积为5,016,005公顷,其中2,098,535公顷是森林地区。鉴于现有资源的潜力,占碑省近10年经济增长呈积极趋势,但在2006 - 2018年期间,土地退化严重,导致该省天然林面积萎缩。本研究采用向量自回归方法,通过平稳性检验、最优滞后检验、协整检验、变量稳定性检验、方差分解和格兰杰因果检验,对占璧省原始林面积、收入不平等、经济增长等变量之间的关系进行分析。基于三个研究变量的因果关系,格兰杰因果检验结果表明,占壁省发生的收入不平等与占壁省剩余原始森林面积百分比之间存在单向因果关系。此外,VAR分析结果显示,基于t统计值,第8时期的收入不平等显著影响了占碑省次年的原始森林面积百分比。此外,根据系数,收入不平等对第8期第二年的原始森林面积产生负向影响。分解变异检验结果预测,在第1时期,原生林面积变量影响了99.98%的原生林面积变量。收入不平等对原始森林面积的影响为0.02%,第一时期的经济增长对原始森林面积没有影响。对第10期的预测表明,原生林面积影响了52.62%的原生林面积,而第10期受到收入不平等和经济增长影响的原生林面积分别为29.81%和17.56%。上述分析显示了占碑省原生林对占碑省现有的不平等和经济增长的关键作用。在占碑省,毁林和非最佳原始森林管理可能对收入不平等的价值产生负面影响。因此,需要在占碑省制定一个林业政策框架,其中包括发展人工林,作为一项能够克服木材供应减少的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Enabling Low-Carbon Tourism Through Technology Transfer in Indonesia: A PESTEL Analysis 印尼通过技术转让实现低碳旅游:PESTEL分析
Angga Wijaya Holman Fasa, Mahardhika Berliandaldo, Raditya Raditya, M. Rosyidi
The tourism and travel sector has contributed significantly to Indonesia’s economic growth and robust development. Despite its positive impact, tourism and travel business activities also potentially impact environmental loss. In order to reduce these negative impacts, the new concept of tourism, namely low-carbon tourism, which focuses on environmental sustainability, can be implemented as the enabler. One of the factors that can support the implementation is the existence of environmentally friendly technology that requires a technology transfer process. This paper aims to overview the role and implication of technology transfer for enabling low-carbon tourism in Indonesia and outlining a conceptual framework for addressing the political (P), economic (E), social (S), technological (T), environmental (E), and legal (L) factors that constrain and support in enabling low-carbon tourism through technology transfer in Indonesia. A qualitative library research method and PESTEL analysis were employed to analyze and map the implications of external factors influencing the development of low-carbon tourism through technology transfer in Indonesia. The paper denotes that all the factors (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal) were interrelated. Nevertheless, the economic factor was the only one with a moderate policy to encourage businesses to use green practices, particularly for the carbon tax policy. Consequently, there was still an opportunity for monetary policy to promote low-carbon tourism.
旅游业和旅游业为印尼的经济增长和强劲发展作出了重大贡献。尽管有积极的影响,旅游和旅游业务活动也可能影响环境损失。为了减少这些负面影响,可以实施以环境可持续性为重点的新旅游概念,即低碳旅游。能够支持执行的因素之一是存在需要技术转让过程的环境友好技术。本文旨在概述技术转让在印度尼西亚实现低碳旅游方面的作用和含义,并概述了一个概念框架,以解决政治(P)、经济(E)、社会(S)、技术(T)、环境(E)和法律(L)因素,这些因素限制和支持印度尼西亚通过技术转让实现低碳旅游。采用定性图书馆研究方法和PESTEL分析,分析和绘制了影响印尼低碳旅游技术转移发展的外部因素的影响。本文指出,所有因素(政治、经济、社会、技术、环境和法律)都是相互关联的。然而,经济因素是唯一一个有温和政策鼓励企业使用绿色实践的因素,特别是碳税政策。因此,货币政策仍有机会促进低碳旅游。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of School Attendance on Child Working: Case from Indonesian School Operational Assistance 学校出勤率对儿童劳动的影响:来自印度尼西亚学校业务援助的案例
Karnia Nur Aniza
Educational subsidies are increasing school attendance, but the impact on the child’s working participation is vague. After running for five years, the government of Indonesia changed the regulation of Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (the BOS program or school operational assistance) to eliminate school fees for all elementary and junior secondary schools in 2009. This study intends to estimate the impact of hours of school attendance on children working using the 2009 regulation BOS program as an instrument. The estimation uses data from the fourth and fifth Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) with Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) as methodology. The result presents that the children who benefited from the 2009 regulation BOS program spent more hours attending school than non-beneficiaries. However, the increase in school attendance is increasing the time allocation for income-generating and household work, supporting the idea that working and schooling are not perfectly substitutable.
教育补贴提高了入学率,但对儿童工作参与率的影响是模糊的。在运行了五年之后,印尼政府于2009年修改了Bantuan operational Sekolah (BOS项目或学校运营援助)的规定,取消了所有小学和初中的学费。本研究拟以2009年规定的BOS计划为工具,评估上学时数对儿童工作的影响。该估计使用了第四和第五次印度尼西亚家庭生活调查(IFLS)的数据,采用模糊回归不连续设计(FRDD)作为方法。结果表明,受益于2009年监管BOS计划的儿童比未受益的儿童上学时间更长。然而,上学人数的增加增加了用于创收和家务劳动的时间分配,这支持了工作和上学并不是完全可以替代的观点。
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引用次数: 1
Indonesia Agricultural Transformation: How Far? Where Would It Go? 印尼农业转型:能走多远?它会去哪里?
M. Abduh
This research examined the inequality that emerges as Indonesia's economy shifts from an agricultural to a non-agricultural sector at the subnational level. These research questions include: (1) How has the agricultural sector in the Indonesian provinces changed over the past two decades? (2) What was the widespread impact of several socioeconomic variables on the transformation of agriculture? (3) How has the agricultural sub-sector responded to the dynamics of these socioeconomic factors over the last decade? The scope of the analysis was the whole province of Indonesia, with time series between 2001-2018. The shift in agriculture at the provincial level was mapped using indicators of poverty and the sector's economic contribution to each province. The logistic regression method was used to see the impact of socioeconomic factors on the agricultural transformation. In contrast, the panel regression was applied to respond to the dynamics of the agricultural sub-sector in terms of socioeconomics in the last ten years. According to the findings of agricultural transformation mapping, there were no changes in the distribution of rural poverty or the agricultural contribution factors between the provinces. Several macroeconomic, social, and infrastructure development factors also significantly contributed to encouraging agricultural transformation and enhancing the added value of the agricultural sector as a whole. It was important to better efficiently utilize the economic potential, which was done by taking production efficiency into account. Furthermore, consumer behaviour and the level of worker productivity had to be considered in attempts to boost economic productivity.
这项研究考察了印尼经济从农业部门向非农业部门转变过程中出现的不平等现象。这些研究问题包括:(1)在过去二十年中,印尼各省的农业部门发生了怎样的变化?(2)几个社会经济变量对农业转型的广泛影响是什么?(3)在过去十年中,农业分部门如何应对这些社会经济因素的动态变化?分析的范围是印度尼西亚整个省,时间序列为2001-2018年。利用贫困指标和该部门对每个省的经济贡献,绘制了省一级农业变化的地图。采用logistic回归方法考察社会经济因素对农业转型的影响。相比之下,面板回归被应用于回应农业分部门在过去十年的社会经济方面的动态。根据农业转型图谱的结果,农村贫困的分布和农业贡献因素在各省之间没有变化。若干宏观经济、社会和基础设施发展因素也对鼓励农业转型和提高整个农业部门的附加值作出了重大贡献。重要的是要更有效地利用经济潜力,这是通过考虑生产效率来实现的。此外,在试图提高经济生产力时,必须考虑到消费者的行为和工人的生产力水平。
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引用次数: 0
Price Gap Comparison in Unit Price and Lump Sum Contracts: A Transaction Cost Economic Approach 单价与一次性合同的价差比较:交易成本经济学方法
Linda Mikowati, Yohanna M. L. Gultom
This study compares two major types of contracts in public procurement, i.e. unit price and lump sum contracts, in terms of the gap between the winner's bid price and owner’s estimated price (OEP) in resulted price gap during the tender process, taking the case of government procurement in Indonesia. Using Indonesian e-tendering data of 2018-2021, this study employs an Ordinary Least Square regression to assess whether there is a difference in the price gap between the two types of contracts. This study finds that the average price gap in unit price contract is significantly higher than that of lump sum contracts. With the help of the transaction cost economics approach, this study discussed that the higher average price gap in unit price contracts is related to a lower information cost and lower risk of having a change order for the contract faced by the bidders. While in a lump sum contract, the winner's bid price is closer to OEP because bidders are faced with design risks that require higher information costs and contract adaptation during the execution phase. The study also found that the use of a unit price contract is significantly related to a longer tendering time due to a longer period in evaluating the bid.
本研究以印尼政府采购为例,比较了公共采购中的两种主要合同类型,即单价合同和一次性付款合同,在招标过程中导致价格差距的中标价格与业主估计价格(OEP)之间的差距。本研究使用印度尼西亚2018-2021年的电子招标数据,采用普通最小二乘回归来评估两种合同之间的价格差距是否存在差异。本研究发现,单价合同的平均价格差距显著高于一次性合同。本文借助交易成本经济学的方法,讨论了单价合同中平均价格差距越大,投标方面临的信息成本越低,合同变更的风险越低。而在一次性合同中,中标者的投标价格更接近OEP,因为投标人在执行阶段面临设计风险,需要更高的信息成本和合同适应。研究还发现,由于评估投标的时间较长,使用单价合同与较长的投标时间显著相关。
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引用次数: 0
Household Economic Welfare During the Rise of Mobile Phone Expansion in Indonesia 印尼移动电话扩张时期的家庭经济福利
Catra Evan Ramadhani
The proliferation of mobile phones in developing countries has significant implications for those countries. Although numerous studies have examined the various advantages of mobile phone use, the relationship between mobile phone access and the economic welfare of households has received comparatively little attention. This paper examines the effects of mobile phone on household expenditures in 2007 and 2014 utilising the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) combined with Potential Village Survey (PODES). Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Endogenous Treatment Regression (ETR), quantile regression, and two-way fixed effect estimations are used to identify the homogeneous and heterogeneous effects of mobile phone use. According to the estimated results, mobile phone access and signal quality significantly increases household expenditure. According to the results of quantile regression, mobile phone access has the greatest effect on the upper expenditure distributions. It is highlighting the importance of promoting a policy that increases mobile phone and the supporting infrastructure on the lower expenditure distributions.
移动电话在发展中国家的普及对这些国家具有重大影响。虽然大量的研究已经检验了移动电话使用的各种优势,移动电话接入和家庭经济福利之间的关系受到相对较少的关注。本文利用印度尼西亚家庭生活调查(IFLS)结合潜在村庄调查(PODES),研究了2007年和2014年移动电话对家庭支出的影响。使用普通最小二乘法(OLS)、内源性处理回归(ETR)、分位数回归和双向固定效应估计来识别手机使用的同质效应和异质性效应。根据估计结果,移动电话接入和信号质量显著增加了家庭支出。根据分位数回归的结果,手机接入对上层支出分布的影响最大。它强调了在较低的支出分配上促进一项增加移动电话和支持基础设施的政策的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Detertminants of CO2 Emission Intensity: Manufacturing Firm-Level Evidence in Indonesia 二氧化碳排放强度的决定因素:印尼制造业企业层面的证据
Melisa Constantia
The Indonesian economy has improved with the manufacturing sector as its primary growth driver. However, along with this development, the country inevitably faces environmental issues such as increased carbon emissions. Based on the firm-level dataset from the Indonesian large and medium manufacturing sector, this paper investigates the main factors related to the CO2 emission intensity of manufacturing firms. The emission carbon data is obtained by calculating the fuel consumption of plants converted into carbon dioxide emissions using emission factors. The result shows that the trend of carbon emission had increased, but the carbon emission intensity had improved. Performing panel data framework, this study uses OLS, 2SLS, and fixed effect model in analyzing the determinants of CO2 intensity. The result of the FE regression suggests that larger firms are emission efficient compared to small-sized firms. Similarly, capital- and labor-intensive firms are less carbon-intensive. Furthermore, firms that spend more on maintenance have emitted more, perhaps due to the adoption of high maintenance equipment by emission-intensive firms requiring more expenses.
印尼经济持续向好,制造业成为主要增长动力。然而,随着这一发展,国家不可避免地面临诸如碳排放增加等环境问题。本文基于印尼大中型制造业的企业层面数据,研究了影响制造业二氧化碳排放强度的主要因素。排放碳数据是通过使用排放因子计算工厂的燃料消耗转化为二氧化碳排放量而得到的。结果表明:碳排放呈增加趋势,但碳排放强度有所提高;本研究采用面板数据框架,运用OLS、2SLS和固定效应模型分析CO2强度的影响因素。结果表明,规模较大的企业排放效率高于规模较小的企业。同样,资本和劳动密集型企业的碳密集度也较低。此外,在维护上花费更多的企业排放更多,这可能是由于排放密集型企业采用高维护设备需要更多的费用。
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引用次数: 0
Design and Strategy for Welfare-to-Work Policy Implementation in Indonesia: Study on Multiple Activation, Strategy for Strengthening Service Provider Capacity and Response of Affected Groups of Pre-Employment Card (Kartu Prakerja) Program 印度尼西亚从福利到工作政策实施的设计和战略:就业前卡(Kartu Prakerja)项目多重激活、加强服务提供者能力的战略和受影响群体的反应研究
Muhyiddin Muhyiddin, R. Parmawati, M. Qomaruddin, Fadillah Putra, A. Sanusi
The Covid-19 Pandemic has hit several countries in the world, including Indonesia. Some of those affected were the industrial world, which resulted in layoffs. In principle, the Pre-Employment Card is a bridge that connects the community with various kinds of new skills training. In addition, the Government also hopes to create a more capable and empowered society to simultaneously reduce excessive dependence on others. This research uses a mixed-method approach and explores the implementation process of the Pre-Employment Card program. The conclusion of this study directs that the pre-employment card program is a policy issued by the Government in the midst of the Covid-19 Pandemic as a social safety net and to train and improve the competence of the workforce to face the demographic bonus in 2030. Socialization carried out by the agency is only through the media social Instagram. In addition, the interaction that occurs in the account is very minimal, so the socialization carried out on social media can be said to be very minimal and less effective.
新冠肺炎大流行已经袭击了包括印度尼西亚在内的世界几个国家。一些受影响的是工业世界,这导致了裁员。原则上,就业前卡是连接社区与各种新技能培训的桥梁。此外,政府还希望建立一个更有能力和更有权力的社会,同时减少对他人的过度依赖。本研究采用混合方法,探讨就业前卡计划的实施过程。本研究的结论指出,就业前卡方案是政府在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间发布的一项政策,作为社会安全网,旨在培训和提高劳动力的能力,以应对2030年的人口红利。该机构只通过社交媒体Instagram进行社交。另外,在账户中发生的互动是非常少的,所以在社交媒体上进行的社会化可以说是非常少,效果不佳。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigation Task Force for Farmer and Worker in Indonesia: A Collaborative Governance Approach in Tobacco Control 印度尼西亚农民和工人缓解工作组:烟草控制的协作治理方法
A. Ahsan, P. B. Ali, K. Rahmayanti, Renova Glorya Montesori Siahaan, Nadira Amalia
Tobacco control for public health improvement has been mandated as a part of the Indonesian National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2020 – 2024, as Indonesia currently sits among the countries with the highest smoking prevalence. On the other hand, Indonesia's position as one of the largest tobacco producers requires proper mitigation strategies for specific communities directly exposed to the tobacco industry. Hence, solid and adequate intra-sectoral collaboration strategies need to be identified. A formal intra-sectoral collaboration creates a win-win solution for both public health and economic sectors, as witnessed by other countries with appropriate government collaboration formulation. This study aims to identify a suitable collaborative governance model for providing mitigation strategies for tobacco farmers and tobacco industry workers. This research investigates the feasibility and environment scanning through a qualitative approach. The data collection was conducted through four series of semi-structured focused group discussions with key policymakers, complemented with secondary data analysis. The Task Force model is the most suitable mitigation initiative for tobacco farmers and cigarette industry workers. It is also more manageable in terms of regulation since it needs minimum regulatory requirements. The task force model also enables more substantial synergies between the central and local governments. However, strong coordination, between-sectoral sentiments, and the need for strong political will remain challenges for the task force implementation.
由于印度尼西亚目前是吸烟率最高的国家之一,为改善公共卫生而控制烟草已被规定为《印度尼西亚2020 - 2024年国家中期发展计划》的一部分。另一方面,印度尼西亚作为最大的烟草生产国之一,需要针对直接接触烟草业的特定社区采取适当的缓解战略。因此,需要确定坚实和适当的部门内合作战略。正式的部门内协作为公共卫生和经济部门创造了双赢的解决办法,其他国家通过适当的政府协作方案证明了这一点。本研究旨在确定一种合适的协作治理模式,为烟农和烟草业工人提供缓解战略。本研究通过定性的方法探讨了环境扫描的可行性。数据收集是通过与主要决策者进行四个系列的半结构化焦点小组讨论进行的,并辅以二手数据分析。工作队模式是最适合烟农和卷烟业工人的缓解倡议。在监管方面,它也更易于管理,因为它需要最低的监管要求。特别工作组模式还使中央和地方政府之间能够产生更大的协同效应。然而,强有力的协调、部门间的情绪以及需要强有力的政治意愿仍然是工作队执行工作面临的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Density on Crime: Evidence from Indonesia 人口密度对犯罪的影响:来自印度尼西亚的证据
Grasia Veranita, M. Yudhistira
This study aims to contribute to the literature on economic density by finding empirical evidence on whether the effects of density are going higher to affect the crime rate at the district level from 2007-2018 with 440 districts. This study used crime rate as a dependent variable and population density as an independent variable also had average age, married, the proportion of divorce, the proportion of gender, and the proportion of urban as relevant variable control. Density appears to have a small effect on crime rates. The regression result using a fixed effect panel concluded the economic density has a negative association with the probability of becoming a victim of crime. Density positively impacts the environment in terms of crime prevention. The denser an area is correlated, the lower the number of victims of crimes.
本研究旨在通过寻找从2007年至2018年440个地区的密度效应是否会影响地区一级的犯罪率的经验证据,为经济密度的文献做出贡献。本研究以犯罪率为因变量,人口密度为自变量,并以平均年龄、已婚、离婚比例、性别比例、都市化比例为相关变量控制。人口密度似乎对犯罪率影响不大。使用固定效应面板的回归结果表明,经济密度与成为犯罪受害者的概率呈负相关。在预防犯罪方面,人口密度对环境有积极影响。关联度越高的地区,犯罪受害者的数量就越少。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Jurnal Perencanaan Pembangunan: The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning
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