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Geographic Information System Based Economic And Financial Risk Analysis: The Case Of Europe And Central Asia 基于地理信息系统的经济金融风险分析:以欧洲和中亚为例
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.8239
Yusuf Kalkan, A. Çam
The study has two purposes. The first purpose is, using the economic and financial risk factors determined by the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) rating agency, to reclassify the scores that countries get from these factors with the Jenks Natural Breaks (JNB) classification technique and to compare countries by creating their thematic maps according to this classification. The second purpose of our study  is to create economic and financial risk maps of countries by using the Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method, which is one of the Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis techniques, based on the economic and financial risk factors determined by the ICRG. Before the GWR analysis for the variables included in the research, Moran Index analysis was performed as the main measurement of spatial autocorrelation. As a result of the Moran analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant positive autocorrelation between the countries. In other words, it has been seen that the countries examined have spatial dependence on each other in terms of economic and financial risk. According to the results of the GWR analysis, risk maps of the examined countries were created and more dynamic, more meaningful or more sensitive, more specific and visually easier to understand results were revealed. And according to these results, it has been seen that the GWR technique can also be used in the fields of economy and finance. In addition, the study brought a different interdisciplinary perspective  by bringing together the fields of economy, finance and geography.
这项研究有两个目的。第一个目的是,利用国际国家风险指南(ICRG)评级机构确定的经济和金融风险因素,用詹克斯自然断裂(JNB)分类技术对各国从这些因素中得到的分数进行重新分类,并根据这种分类创建各国的专题地图来比较各国。我们研究的第二个目的是基于ICRG确定的经济和金融风险因素,使用地理加权回归(GWR)方法(地理信息系统(GIS)分析技术之一)创建各国的经济和金融风险地图。在对纳入研究的变量进行GWR分析之前,采用Moran指数分析作为空间自相关的主要度量。Moran分析的结果是,国家之间存在统计学上显著的正自相关。换句话说,研究发现,在经济和金融风险方面,这些国家在空间上相互依赖。根据GWR分析的结果,绘制了被检查国家的风险图,并揭示了更有活力、更有意义或更敏感、更具体、更容易理解的结果。根据这些结果,可以看出GWR技术也可以应用于经济和金融领域。此外,该研究汇集了经济、金融和地理领域,带来了不同的跨学科视角。
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引用次数: 0
The Multifaceted Dimensions of the Wage Gap in Ecuador 厄瓜多尔工资差距的多面性
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.8729
N. Pontarollo, J. Segovia, Mercy Orellana
This study examines the determinants of wage gap differences based on gender, ethnicity, and area of residence (urban vs. rural) in Ecuador for the years 2007 and 2017. By combining the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition with unconditional quantile regression, we identify the extent to which the wage gap between two groups is due to characteristics (endowment) or unexplained factors at various points of the distribution, i.e. for low-, medium- and high-income workers. Results show that, on average, the gender and ethnic wage gap in 2017 increased slightly with respect to 2007, while the area wage gaps remained stable. However, progresses have mainly benefited those at the top of the income distribution, while disparities have widened for those at the bottom. As regards endowment effects, education mainly explains area and ethnicity wage gaps, while there is an important unexplained part that contributes more to gender wage differentials.
本研究考察了2007年和2017年厄瓜多尔基于性别、种族和居住地区(城市与农村)的工资差距差异的决定因素。通过将Oaxaca-Blinder分解与无条件分位数回归相结合,我们确定了两组之间的工资差距在多大程度上是由分布的各个点(即低收入、中等收入和高收入工人)的特征(禀赋)或无法解释的因素造成的。结果显示,平均而言,2017年的性别和种族工资差距比2007年略有扩大,而地区工资差距保持稳定。然而,这些进步主要惠及收入分配顶层的人群,而底层人群的收入差距却扩大了。在禀赋效应方面,教育主要解释了地区和种族的工资差异,而有一个重要的未解释的部分对性别工资差异的贡献更大。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Social Media Advertising on Buying Decision of Young Group of Consumers in Bangladesh: A Study Dhaka City 社交媒体广告对孟加拉国年轻消费者群体购买决策的影响:达卡市研究
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9105
Md. Nur Nobi, M. Rahman, Md. Mokshud Ali, Abu Obayda, Asaduzzaman Shohel, Tania Tani
This study has run for investigating the impacts of social media advertising among the young group of people's buying decision of Bangladesh. To run this study the authors has developed a structured survey questionnaire by using the digital survey tool, through Google form. For this research an online survey through the social media platform, Facebook has used for collecting data from a convenience sample of 244 respondents, living throughout the Dhaka city. Besides, snowball sampling technique exerted for leveraging the referrals of the participating respondents within their acquaintance network through Facebook. Moreover, the Multiple Regression Analysis was performed to test the research hypotheses. Results show that among the six predictors, Source of Information, Uniqueness of Advertising, Time Saving, Security, Convenience of Ordering and Feedback significantly affects in young people's buying decision. Accordingly, all research hypotheses are supported by survey data: social media marketing increased by unit favorably influences Bangladeshi youth purchasing behavior by 53.5%, and the remaining 46.5% may be influenced by other non-market external and internal variables. Finally, the limitations and managerial implications of the study, along with future research avenues, have been discussed.
本研究旨在调查社交媒体广告对孟加拉国年轻人购买决策的影响。为了进行这项研究,作者通过谷歌表格使用数字调查工具开发了一份结构化调查问卷。为了这项研究,Facebook通过社交媒体平台进行了一项在线调查,从居住在达卡市的244名受访者中收集了方便样本的数据。此外,利用滚雪球抽样技术,通过Facebook利用参与受访者在其熟人网络中的推荐。并对研究假设进行多元回归分析。结果表明,在六个预测因素中,信息来源、广告独特性、节省时间、安全性、订购便利性和反馈显著影响年轻人的购买决策。因此,所有的研究假设都得到了调查数据的支持:单位增加的社交媒体营销对孟加拉国青年购买行为的影响为53.5%,其余46.5%可能受到其他非市场外部和内部变量的影响。最后,讨论了本研究的局限性和管理意义,以及未来的研究途径。
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引用次数: 0
Auge y caída de los Fondos de Inversión Inmobiliarios españoles. La necesidad de revitalizar este producto financiero 西班牙房地产投资基金的兴衰。重振这一金融产品的必要性
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.8732
Miguel Córdoba Bueno
En la década de los años noventa del pasado siglo se produjo una auténtica explosión de innovación en los mercados financieros españoles, y en particular con la creación de los fondos de inversión inmobiliaria. Sin embargo, en la década siguiente y con el estallido de la burbuja inmobiliaria, los fondos que se comercializaban cayeron en pérdidas e incluso tuvieron que suspender los reembolsos temporalmente ante la ausencia de liquidez, hasta llegar a la actualidad que sólo existen dos fondos que además están en liquidación. Hoy nadie invierte en España en fondos de inversión inmobiliaria y, sin embargo, serían un producto idóneo para solucionar los actuales problemas de escasez de vivienda y de carestía del alquiler.
上世纪90年代,西班牙金融市场出现了一场真正的创新爆炸,尤其是房地产投资基金的创建。然而,在接下来的十年,而且房地产泡沫的破灭,资金的落在损失甚至不得不暂时中止偿还向缺乏流动性,到目前只有两个,他们不仅在资金清算。如今,没有人在西班牙投资房地产投资基金,但它们将是解决当前住房短缺和租金短缺问题的理想产品。
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引用次数: 0
Board Attributes, Political Connections and External Auditor Pricing Behaviour in Nigeria: Statistical versus Machine Learning Analyses 尼日利亚董事会属性、政治关系和外部审计师定价行为:统计与机器学习分析
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9099
Kenny Adedapo soyemi
Anchored on Simunic’s audit fees model, this study examined the influence of a few board attributes on pricing behavior of external auditors in Nigeria. Besides, political connections that are largely prevalent among corporate entities in Nigeria, is also introduced as part of explanatory variables. Data were gathered from audited annual accounts and reports of 50 quoted non-financial firms for 7 years from 2014 – 2020, culminating into 350 data/set observations. Both statistical learning (SL) and machine learning (ML) data analytic techniques were adopted to estimate model specified for the study. The results indicated that firm size and political connections are effective determinants of pricing behaviour of auditors, accounting for 80% variations therein. This is similar to results obtained from machine language analysis. However, board attributes, as well as profitability (return on total assets), in addition to firm size and political connections, displayed positive and statistical significant relationship when BIG4 was adopted as proxy for pricing behavior of auditors. The statistical and machine learning analyses accounted for 21% and 86% variations in pricing behavior of auditors respectively. This study largely conforms to extant studies and aligns with demand-based perspective linking board attributes and audit pricing behavior. Consequently, board attributes, political connections, firm size and profitability are active variables available to firms, which must be effectively managed in order to influence the amount charged by external auditors in Nigeria.           
本研究以Simunic的审计费用模型为基础,考察了董事会的一些属性对尼日利亚外部审计师定价行为的影响。此外,尼日利亚公司实体中普遍存在的政治关系也被作为解释变量的一部分引入。数据收集自2014年至2020年7年间50家非金融上市公司的审计年度账目和报告,最终得到350个数据/组观察结果。采用统计学习(SL)和机器学习(ML)数据分析技术对研究指定的模型进行估计。结果表明,公司规模和政治关系是审计师定价行为的有效决定因素,占其中80%的变化。这与机器语言分析得到的结果相似。然而,当采用BIG4作为审计人员定价行为的代理时,董事会属性、盈利能力(总资产回报率)以及公司规模和政治关系都呈现出显著的正相关关系。统计分析和机器学习分析分别占审计人员定价行为变化的21%和86%。本研究在很大程度上符合现有的研究,并与基于需求的视角相一致,将董事会属性和审计定价行为联系起来。因此,董事会属性、政治关系、公司规模和盈利能力是公司可以利用的主动变量,必须对这些变量进行有效管理,以便影响尼日利亚外部审计师收取的费用。
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引用次数: 0
Black Market Exchange Rate Movement in Nigeria: Does Cryptocurrency Matters? 尼日利亚黑市汇率走势:加密货币重要吗?
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9196
Felix Aberu, J. Ogede, Joseph Oluwaseun Ewarawon
The movement of exchange rates generally had demonstrated unpredictable patterns over time as a traditional mode of payment, particularly the black or parallel exchange market that is already fueled by demand pressure. However, cryptocurrency and the parallel or black exchange market are global phenomenon traded outside the government strict regulations in Nigeria, hence, their economic implications and understanding by many persons, banks, policy-makers, governments, and companies remain a priori unclear. Therefore, this study investigates the impacts of cryptocurrency on black or parallel exchange rate market  movement in Nigeria from Jan, 2021 to April, 2023 using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) regression analysis and Granger causality test to affirm the hypothesis that, cryptocurrency do not have significant impacts on black market exchange rate movement in Nigeria. The result of the ARDL shows that cryptocurrencies trading are core determinants of the black or parallel market exchange rate movement in Nigeria during the study period. Therefore, we concluded that cryptocurrency has a negative and significant impact on black market exchange rate movement in Nigeria from Jan. 2021 to April, 2023 and recommend that the government as a matter of urgency regulate cryptocurrency in order to curb the excesses that come with it just like in Japan, China, and Australia, since Nigeria still engages foreign currency controls as monetary policy tools, so as to improve on consumers’ confidence on the domestic currency.   
作为一种传统的支付方式,汇率的变动长期以来普遍表现出不可预测的模式,特别是已经受到需求压力推动的黑市或平行外汇市场。然而,在尼日利亚,加密货币和平行或黑色交易所市场是在政府严格监管之外进行交易的全球现象,因此,许多人、银行、政策制定者、政府和公司对它们的经济影响和理解仍然不清楚。因此,本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)回归分析和格兰杰因果检验,对尼日利亚2021年1月至2023年4月期间加密货币对尼日利亚黑市或平行汇率市场变动的影响进行了研究,以确认加密货币对尼日利亚黑市汇率变动没有显著影响的假设。ARDL的结果表明,在研究期间,加密货币交易是尼日利亚黑市或平行市场汇率变动的核心决定因素。因此,我们得出的结论是,从2021年1月到2023年4月,加密货币对尼日利亚的黑市汇率变动产生了负面而重大的影响,并建议政府作为紧急事项对加密货币进行监管,以遏制随之而来的过度行为,就像日本,中国和澳大利亚一样,因为尼日利亚仍然将外汇管制作为货币政策工具,以提高消费者对本国货币的信心。
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引用次数: 1
How South Korea’s Economy Gained Momentum because of Covid-19 韩国经济如何因新冠疫情获得动力
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9096
Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan
The objective of the paper is to assess the resilience of the economy of South Korea following the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy. Quarterly growth rates (annualized) of the Real GDP of South Korea and Japan are forecasted between Q2 2022 and Q4 2050. Two sets of forecasts are generated: forecasts using historical data including the pandemic (from Q1 1998 to Q1 2022) and excluding the pandemic (from Q1 1998 to Q3 2019). The computation of the difference of their averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economies during the pandemic. Used as a benchmark, Japan’s economy shows a lower resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic (+0.17%) than South Korea’s economy (+0.43%) based on Q2 2022-2050 forecasts. Driven by stronger growth than Japan, South Korea's GDP is expected to exceed Japan's by 2060.
这篇论文的目的是评估韩国经济在新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济造成冲击后的复原力。韩国和日本的实际GDP季度增长率(年化)预计在2022年第二季度至2050年第四季度之间。生成两组预测:使用历史数据的预测,包括大流行(从1998年第一季度到2022年第一季度)和不包括大流行(从1998年第一季度到2019年第三季度)。对其平均值之差的计算是大流行期间经济恢复能力的一个指标。以日本经济为基准(+0.17%),以2022年至2050年第二季度为基准预测的韩国经济(+0.43%)为基准,日本经济的抗疫能力较低。在经济增长强于日本的推动下,韩国的GDP预计将在2060年超过日本。
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引用次数: 2
Revisiting the Determinants of Investment- The Case of Tunisia 重新审视投资的决定因素——以突尼斯为例
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.7224
Nesrine Dardouri, Abdelkader Aguir, Ramzi Farhani, Mounir Smida
This study aims to analyse the determinants of investment for developing countries, through the case of Tunisia, which is strongly affected by such a dynamic. Using the ARDL model on annual data for the period 1987 to 2020, we found evidence of a short- and long-term relationship between various social and economic variables and the investment. These findings have important policy implications for economic agents, politicians, and policymakers. This study is useful to identify the socioeconomic determinants of total investment in Tunisia.
本研究旨在通过突尼斯的案例分析发展中国家投资的决定因素,突尼斯受到这种动态的强烈影响。通过对1987 - 2020年年度数据的ARDL模型,我们发现了各种社会经济变量与投资之间存在短期和长期关系的证据。这些发现对经济主体、政治家和政策制定者具有重要的政策意义。这项研究有助于确定突尼斯总投资的社会经济决定因素。
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引用次数: 1
Foreign Trade, Employment and Economic Growth in Sudan: Econometric Analysis 苏丹对外贸易、就业与经济增长:计量经济学分析
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.8697
Elwasila S. E. Mohamed
This study investigates the relationships between foreign trade, employment and economic growth in Sudan over the period 1970-2017, with inflation and budget deficit as policy variables. Two autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) models were estimated with trade and economic growth as determinants of youth employment and total employment. Two other models were estimated to investigate how trade and each type of employment affect economic growth separately. The empirical results from the four models revealed existence of long run relationships between foreign trade, employment and economic growth. In the short run, trade, economic and population growth rates have stronger effects on youth employment than on total employment. In the long run, youth employment is found to be positively affected by economic growth and investment but negatively affected by population growth and the budget deficit, while total employment is only affected by population growth rate. Economic growth is found to be much explained by youth employment than by total employment and foreign trade. The study concludes that the internal factors in terms of inflation, budget deficit, investment and salaried workers are more important to employment and economic growth than the performance of foreign trade sector of Sudan. The policy implication is that youth employment should be given priority in labor and trade openness policy than targeting employment as a whole. For trade openness to play positive roles on employment and economic growth in Sudan, corrective policies for volumes and types of exports and imports are urgently needed.
本研究以通货膨胀和预算赤字为政策变量,考察了1970-2017年苏丹对外贸易、就业和经济增长之间的关系。以贸易和经济增长作为青年就业和总就业的决定因素,估计了两个自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型。另外两个模型分别研究了贸易和每种类型的就业如何影响经济增长。四个模型的实证结果表明,对外贸易、就业和经济增长之间存在着长期的关系。在短期内,贸易、经济和人口增长率对青年就业的影响大于对总就业的影响。从长期来看,青年就业受到经济增长和投资的积极影响,而受到人口增长和预算赤字的消极影响,而总就业只受到人口增长率的影响。研究发现,青年就业比总就业和对外贸易更能解释经济增长。研究的结论是,通货膨胀、预算赤字、投资和受薪工人等内部因素比苏丹外贸部门的业绩对就业和经济增长更为重要。其政策含义是,在劳动和贸易开放政策中,应优先考虑青年就业,而不是以就业为目标。为了使贸易开放对苏丹的就业和经济增长发挥积极作用,迫切需要纠正进出口数量和种类的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Factors Affecting University Graduates’ Employability in Egypt Using Egyptian University Students as a Case Study 影响埃及大学毕业生就业能力的因素——以埃及大学生为例
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.8731
H. Ead, Heba Fahmy, Abdallah Elbadry
Employability refers to the process of gaining initial employment, maintaining employment, and successfully obtaining new employment if required. In simple terms, employability is about being capable of obtaining and keeping fulfilling work. Employability is having a set of skills, including knowledge, understanding, and personal attributes that make a person more likely to choose and secure occupations in which they can be satisfied and successful. Employability depends on knowledge (what you know), skills (what you do with what you know), and attitudes (how you approach things). In higher education, the employment of university graduates is influenced by many factors including institutional ranking, image, branding, and program structure. Therefore, university reputation in specific programs is important and affects the employability of graduates directly. In a recent paper by the corresponding author, we argued that university branding is critical for developing a favorable image and impacts one’s identity formation and promotion substantially, thus differentiating and placing one in a highly competitive context. In this paper, we will investigate the factors that influence employability among university graduates and determine which ones can affect the overall graduate employability of university graduates in Egypt. These factors include academic branding, academic performance, technical skills, communication skills, personality, leadership and motivational skills, and teamwork and problem-solving skills, taken as independent variables, while overall graduate employability was considered the dependent variable. In addition, we consider the impact of the university’s reputation on graduate employability. Survey methods were used on 500 graduates and undergraduates (fourth level) from different Egyptian universities who have not yet performed employability behavior, chosen at random, by using exploratory factor analysis to validate the items under those independent variables and structural equation modeling with AMOS to test the hypothesized relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. The questionnaire had 20 questions, including demographic inquiries and questions about the abovementioned topics. The findings of this study can help scholars further investigate the employability aspects and guide fresh graduates in acquiring the required employability skills while assisting companies in recruiting suitable people with the required skills and performance.
就业能力是指获得初次就业、保持就业以及在需要时成功获得新就业的过程。简而言之,就业能力是指能够获得并保持令人满意的工作。就业能力是指拥有一系列技能,包括知识、理解力和个人特质,这些技能使一个人更有可能选择并获得自己满意和成功的职业。就业能力取决于知识(你所知道的)、技能(你用你所知道的做什么)和态度(你如何对待事情)。在高等教育中,大学毕业生的就业受到许多因素的影响,包括学校排名、形象、品牌和项目结构。因此,大学在特定专业的声誉是重要的,直接影响毕业生的就业能力。在通讯作者最近的一篇论文中,我们认为大学品牌对于塑造良好的形象至关重要,并对一个人的身份形成和提升产生重大影响,从而使一个人脱颖而出,并将其置于高度竞争的环境中。在本文中,我们将调查影响大学毕业生就业能力的因素,并确定哪些因素会影响埃及大学毕业生的整体就业能力。这些因素包括学术品牌、学业成绩、技术技能、沟通能力、个性、领导和激励能力、团队合作和解决问题的能力,这些因素被视为自变量,而毕业生的整体就业能力被视为因变量。此外,我们还考虑了大学声誉对毕业生就业能力的影响。采用调查方法,随机抽取500名埃及不同高校尚未进行就业行为的毕业生和本科生(四级),采用探索性因子分析对自变量下的项目进行验证,并采用AMOS结构方程模型对自变量与因变量之间的假设关系进行检验。问卷共有20个问题,包括人口统计调查和有关上述主题的问题。本研究的结果可以帮助学者进一步研究就业能力方面,指导应届毕业生获得所需的就业技能,同时帮助企业招聘具有所需技能和绩效的合适人员。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Studies of Applied Economics
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