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The Causal Nexus between Economic Growth, Investment and Saving using Vector Error Correction Model in Ethiopia 基于向量误差修正模型的埃塞俄比亚经济增长、投资和储蓄的因果关系
Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i3.7887
Tesfaye Denano, Sintayehu Sibera
Investment and saving are critical for a country's economic development. The primary goal of this research was to determine whether there is a long-run or short-run causal relationship between saving, investment, and economic growth(GDP). We used Vector Error Correction Model  and Augmented Dickey-Fulle and Phillips-Perron tests were used to verify the Unit root test. The Johansen Cointegration Test shows that economic growth, savings, and investment are reconciled and are in long-run equilibrium. Vector error correction tests show that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between saving and investment to economic growth in the short-term as well as long-term. There is a bidirectional causal relationship from total domestic savings to total domestic investment. In other words, savings and investment lead to economic growth. Therefore, for this purpose, policymakers need to formulate and implement policies that promote economic growth. Such policies lead to higher growth in savings and investment.
投资和储蓄对一个国家的经济发展至关重要。本研究的主要目的是确定储蓄、投资和经济增长(GDP)之间是否存在长期或短期因果关系。我们使用向量误差修正模型和增强dickey - fullle和Phillips-Perron检验来验证单位根检验。约翰森协整检验表明,经济增长、储蓄和投资是协调一致的,处于长期均衡状态。向量误差修正检验表明,储蓄和投资对经济增长在短期和长期都存在单向的因果关系。国内储蓄总额与国内投资总额之间存在双向因果关系。换句话说,储蓄和投资导致经济增长。因此,为了实现这一目标,决策者需要制定和实施促进经济增长的政策。这些政策导致储蓄和投资的更高增长。
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引用次数: 0
Sectoral Performances and Economic Policy Uncertainty in an Emerging Economy 新兴经济体的行业表现与经济政策不确定性
Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i3.7853
E. Uche, Chijioke Okoronkwo, S. I. Nwamiri, Urom Ogbonnia Chukwu
This study investigates the dynamic interference of economic policy uncertainties on sectoral performances in an emerging economy - Nigeria. This step becomes expedient considering the vulnerability of developing countries to economic shocks and the lack of convincing explanations in previous studies. The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) and Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) techniques, as well as annual time series for the period 1981 to 2019, were relied upon for empirical expositions. Accordingly, a long-run relationship is established among the performance of each sector and the relevant explanatory variables. Overall, the empirical details reveal time-varying negative and significant effects of uncertainties on the performances of all the sectors, especially, the agricultural and the services sectors. Also, it is established that trade openness is a significant growth inhibitor, suggesting that the vulnerability of Nigeria economy to the waves of uncertainties is heightened by the levels of trade openness. Meanwhile, productivity levels in all the sectors are positive and significant functions of the exchange rate and investments. On this note, policies to shield the local economy from uncertainties must be sensitive to sectoral peculiarities and time variations. However, such efforts will be futile if trade openness is not taken into considerations. Expectedly, these discoveries are equally beneficial to the government, the local and international investors.
本研究探讨了经济政策不确定性对新兴经济体尼日利亚部门绩效的动态干扰。考虑到发展中国家对经济冲击的脆弱性以及以前的研究缺乏令人信服的解释,这一步骤变得权宜之计。利用动态自回归分布滞后(DARDL)和核正则化最小二乘(KRLS)技术以及1981 - 2019年的年度时间序列进行实证论证。因此,各部门绩效与相关解释变量之间建立了长期关系。总体而言,实证细节揭示了不确定性对所有部门,特别是农业和服务部门的绩效的时变负面和显著影响。此外,贸易开放是一个重要的增长抑制剂,这表明尼日利亚经济对不确定性浪潮的脆弱性随着贸易开放水平的提高而增加。同时,所有部门的生产率水平都是汇率和投资的显著正函数。在这一点上,保护当地经济不受不确定性影响的政策必须对行业特点和时间变化敏感。但是,如果不考虑贸易开放,这些努力将是徒劳的。预计这些发现对政府、当地和国际投资者同样有利。
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引用次数: 0
The Nexus between Financial Instability, Renewable Energy and Environmental Quality in the presence of Structural Breaks: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria 结构性断裂下金融不稳定、可再生能源和环境质量之间的关系:来自尼日利亚的经验证据
Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i3.5763
A. Jakada, Abdullahi Daiyabu Marmara, Suraya Mahmood, Ali Umar Ahmad, Ali Sani Ibrahim
The goal of the study is to look at the link between financial instability, renewable energy, and environmental quality from 1970 to 2020. To check for stationarity and cointegration among the variables, the study uses second-generation econometric approaches of Lee and Strazicich as well as Bayer and Hanck combined cointegration tests, and then uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to investigate the long and short-run dynamics of the relationship, respectively. The study's long-term findings show that financial instability, oil prices, FDI, and GDP all have a significant positive effect on CO2 emissions, which degrade environmental quality, whereas increased in renewable energy consumption decreases CO2 emissions, thereby improving the quality of the environment. The findings of this study provide policymakers with new information to help them create comprehensive financial, economic, and energy supply strategies that will reduce the damaging effects of pollution on the environment.
这项研究的目的是研究1970年至2020年间金融不稳定、可再生能源和环境质量之间的联系。为了检验变量之间的平稳性和协整性,本研究采用了Lee和Strazicich的第二代计量经济学方法,以及Bayer和hank的联合协整检验,然后采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)分别考察了两者关系的长期和短期动态。该研究的长期研究结果表明,金融不稳定、油价、FDI和GDP都对二氧化碳排放有显著的正向影响,从而降低了环境质量,而可再生能源消费的增加减少了二氧化碳排放,从而改善了环境质量。这项研究的发现为政策制定者提供了新的信息,帮助他们制定全面的金融、经济和能源供应战略,以减少污染对环境的破坏性影响。
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引用次数: 0
Trayectorias tecnológicas en la cadena de valor agroalimentaria en España: una metaevaluación (2016-2020) 西班牙农业食品价值链的技术路径:元评估(2016-2020)
Pub Date : 2022-07-21 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i2.8294
Jesús Manuel Plaza Llorente
Aplicando metodología de metaevaluación, en este artículo se investiga la existencia y categorización de trayectorias tecnológicas en 254 proyectos de investigación cooperativa pertenecientes a la cadena de valor agroalimentaria que han sido objeto de apoyo por un programa público en España, entre 2016 y 2020. Mediante análisis estadístico, clasificación cluster K-means y modelización econométrica, se han identificado cinco trayectorias tecnológicas, representativas de opciones de innovación en agricultura y agroindustria, vinculadas a la producción de materias primas, transformación industrial, empleo de servicios avanzados, gestión de subproductos, residuos y comercialización y gestión de regadíos. Las conclusiones de este trabajo afirman las posibilidades de la metaevaluación para investigar realidades complejas y, en el caso estudiado, la utilidad de definir trayectorias tecnológicas como elemento para diseñar nuevas políticas de incentivos públicos y, de forma particular, los que deban apoyar la innovación tecnológica en la agricultura y la transformación alimentaria en la perspectiva de cumplimiento de los objetivos de cambio climático 2050.
按照元评价方法,本文研究了存在和技术途径分类254合作研究项目,属于食品价值链受到公众支持一项在西班牙,2016至2020年。通过集群、分类统计分析K-means econométrica模型,确定了五个技术途径,选择具有代表性的创新相关的农业和农产工业、原材料生产、工业转型、就业服务先进、副产品、废弃物管理、营销和管理还需。这个工作结果的可能性,复杂的元评价调查现实,而且在学习技术,实用性定义轨迹设计新公共政策的激励因素的方式进行,尤其是需要支持技术创新农业和粮食转变角度实现气候变化目标到2050年。
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引用次数: 0
Financial networks a retrospective view to looking ahead 金融网络以回顾的眼光展望未来
Pub Date : 2022-06-13 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i2.8378
J. Sánchez García, Eduardo Terán Yépez, Juán José Tapia León
This study defines the cognitive structure of financial networks research by looking at the terms scholars have used over the last 31 years of research. Applying co-word analysis over a sample of 680 records extracted from Scopus database, the findings reveal that that the literature on financial networks is made up of six thematic clusters, these are: Dynamics of financial networks, Complex banking networks, Risk and contagion in financial networks, Topology and structure of financial networks, Main methodologies and techniques and Post-crisis responses. In addition to laying the groundwork for understanding financial networks through a retrospective view, this study shows how bibliometrics (especially co-words analysis) can contribute to reducing conceptual ambiguity in emerging research fields, such as financial networks research, and open doors for future research.
本研究通过考察学者们在过去31年的研究中使用的术语,定义了金融网络研究的认知结构。通过对从Scopus数据库中提取的680条记录样本进行共词分析,研究结果表明,金融网络的文献由六个主题集群组成,分别是:金融网络的动态、复杂银行网络、金融网络中的风险和传染、金融网络的拓扑和结构、主要方法和技术以及危机后的应对。除了通过回顾视角为理解金融网络奠定基础之外,本研究还展示了文献计量学(特别是共词分析)如何有助于减少新兴研究领域(如金融网络研究)的概念歧义,并为未来的研究打开大门。
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引用次数: 0
avance de las plantaciones olivareras súper intensivas en el valle del Guadalquivir: panorama y prospectiva 瓜达尔基维尔山谷超集约化橄榄种植园的发展:全景与展望
Pub Date : 2022-06-13 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i2.7300
J. D. Sánchez Martínez, Juan Carlos Rodríguez Cohard, Vicente José Gallego Simón, Antonio Garrido Almonacid
Andalucía es la mayor productora de aceites de oliva del mundo, una situación derivada tanto de la expansión superficial como de la intensificación productiva, estimuladas por la internacionalización de la economía. Las plantaciones más recientes se caracterizan por su elevada densidad y completa mecanización, en consonancia con los resultados del cambio tecnológico aplicado a la agricultura industrial. En el presente trabajo nos preguntamos qué posibilidades de prosperar tienen estos cambios en áreas donde domina la tradición, como es la provincia de Jaén. Dado que nos encontramos en lo que consideramos primeros síntomas de transformaciones que pueden ser drásticas, en la metodología se ha privilegiado el trabajo de campo. En los resultados se han considerado distintos modelos posibles y su relación fundamental con la disponibilidad de agua. Entre las conclusiones se han destacado diferentes limitaciones y debilidades que este proceso expansivo puede suponer desde una perspectiva territorial.
安达卢西亚是世界上最大的橄榄油生产国,这种情况是由于经济国际化刺激的表面扩张和生产集约化造成的。最近的种植园的特点是高密度和完全机械化,与应用于工业化农业的技术变革的结果一致。在目前的工作中,我们想知道在传统占主导地位的地区,如jaen省,这些变化有什么机会蓬勃发展。由于我们发现自己处于我们认为可能是剧烈变化的最初症状中,因此该方法优先考虑实地工作。本研究的目的是评估不同的模型,并确定它们与水可用性的基本关系。在这些结论中,从领土的角度强调了这一扩张过程可能带来的不同限制和弱点。
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引用次数: 1
Evaluating Lecturer’s Organizational Commitment and Organization Citizenship Behavior and Performance Through Servant Leadership Model 基于服务型领导模型的讲师组织承诺与组织公民行为与绩效评估
Pub Date : 2022-06-07 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i2.6378
Dedeng Abdul Gani Amrullah, HM Sidik Priadan Iman, H. Setiawan, Zainudin Abu Bakar
The importance of organisation commitment and organisation citizenship to the effectiveness of the organisation is inarguable, especially in this current environment which moving towards industrial revolution 4.0 and globalisation. This study examines the effect of Servant Leadership Model on organizational commitment and organization citizenship behavior and lecturer’s performance. Respondents of this study were 225 permanent lecturers at private universities in Bandung, Indonesia. The research method uses in this study is quantitative approach. Data collected were analysed using structural equation modeling to address the research hypotheses. The results of the study prove that the servant leadership does not directly affect lecturer performance, but servant leadership has a significant effect on lecturer performance through organizational commitment or organization citizenship behavior. A better alternative is to improve lecturer performance by encouraging the application of servant leadership to increase organizational commitment which has an impact on lecturer performance.
组织承诺和组织公民对组织有效性的重要性是无可争辩的,特别是在当前走向工业革命4.0和全球化的环境中。本研究探讨服务型领导模式对组织承诺、组织公民行为和讲师绩效的影响。本研究的调查对象是印度尼西亚万隆私立大学的225名常任讲师。本研究采用的研究方法是定量方法。使用结构方程模型对收集的数据进行分析,以解决研究假设。研究结果证明,服务型领导不直接影响讲师绩效,但服务型领导通过组织承诺或组织公民行为对讲师绩效有显著影响。一个更好的选择是通过鼓励应用仆人式领导来提高讲师绩效,从而增加对讲师绩效有影响的组织承诺。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Impact of Social Media Marketing on Tourism Destination Marketing and Revisit Intention: The Extension of Stimulus-Organism-Response (S-O-R) Model 社交媒体营销对旅游目的地营销和重游意向的影响:刺激-机体-反应(S-O-R)模型的扩展
Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i2.6848
Chee-Hua Chin, Poh Ming Winnie Wong
Tourism is widely regarded as one of the largest and fastest growing industries on the world. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on international visitor arrivals and receipts for countries worldwide. Recognizing the need for tourism destinations to develop entirely new marketing strategies in the post-COVID-19 era, the establishment of travel brands for tourism destinations is critical to facilitating more effective marketing campaigns. As a result, social media marketing has been recognized as a viable marketing technique for promoting products, services, and information via social networking sites (SNSs). This is perhaps the first study to use the stimulus-organism-response (S-O-R) model to examine how SMMA affect tourism destination marketing and, subsequently, revisit intention for rural tourism destinations in Sarawak, Malaysia. A total of 239 valid questionnaires were used to assess the fitness of the measurement (inner) and structural (outer) models. Interestingly, the empirical findings indicate that SMMA (i.e., entertainment, interaction, trendiness, customization, and word-of-mouth) all contribute significantly to the success of rural tourism destination marketing efforts. Additionally, it was discovered that a well-developed tourism destination marketing strategy is critical for increasing tourists' intention to revisit, particularly to rural tourism destinations in Sarawak.
旅游业被广泛认为是世界上规模最大、发展最快的产业之一。然而,2019冠状病毒病大流行的爆发对世界各国的国际游客人数和收入产生了重大影响。我们认识到,在2019冠状病毒病后时代,旅游目的地需要制定全新的营销策略,为旅游目的地建立旅游品牌对于促进更有效的营销活动至关重要。因此,社交媒体营销已经被认为是一种可行的营销技术,可以通过社交网站(sns)来推广产品、服务和信息。这可能是第一个使用刺激-有机体-反应(S-O-R)模型来研究SMMA如何影响旅游目的地营销,并随后重新审视马来西亚沙捞越乡村旅游目的地的意向的研究。共使用239份有效问卷来评估测量模型(内部)和结构模型(外部)的适合度。有趣的是,实证结果表明,SMMA(即娱乐、互动、时尚、定制和口碑)都对乡村旅游目的地营销的成功有显著贡献。此外,研究还发现,一个完善的旅游目的地营销策略对于增加游客重访的意愿至关重要,特别是到砂拉越的乡村旅游目的地。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric Link between Unemployment, Inflation and GDP growth rate in the United Kingdom Economy: An ARDL Bounds Approach 英国经济中失业、通货膨胀与GDP增长率的不对称关系:ARDL边界方法
Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i2.7841
Dr Mohammed Ageli
This paper investigates the relationships between unemployment, inflation, and economic growth in the UK. Quarterly data for the period 1990: Q1 to 2020: Q4. The ARDL bounds test model, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger causality test are applied to examine the variables' short-run and long-run causal relationship. Unemployment rate (UR), inflation rate (INFR) and GDP growth rate (GDPGR) as a proxy of economic growth have been taken to study the relationships among unemployment, inflation, and economic growth. The short-run ARDL model in the study suggests that the entire variables (GDPGR, DUR and INFR) have a short-run causal relationship with each other. It follows the economic theories of Okun’s Law and the short-run Philips curve that there is an interrelationship among economic growth, unemployment, and inflation. The ARDL bounds test and VECM findings suggest strong evidence of cointegration between the three variables, which indicates a long-run equilibrium relationship. The pairwise Granger Causality test suggests a bi-directional relationship between economic growth and unemployment and a unidirectional relationship between inflation and economic growth (INFR→GDPGR) and between inflation and unemployment (INFR→DUR). In this case, monetary and fiscal policies may no longer effectively achieve policymakers’ economic growth and development goals.
本文研究了英国失业、通货膨胀和经济增长之间的关系。1990年季度数据:第一季度至2020年第四季度。运用ARDL边界检验模型、向量误差修正模型(Vector Error Correction model, VECM)和格兰杰因果检验检验变量的短期和长期因果关系。以失业率(UR)、通货膨胀率(INFR)和GDP增长率(GDPGR)作为经济增长的代表来研究失业、通货膨胀和经济增长之间的关系。本研究的短期ARDL模型表明,整个变量(GDPGR、DUR和INFR)之间存在短期因果关系。根据奥肯定律和短期菲利普斯曲线等经济理论,经济增长、失业和通货膨胀之间存在着相互关系。ARDL边界检验和VECM结果表明,这三个变量之间存在协整关系,表明存在长期均衡关系。两两格兰杰因果检验表明,经济增长与失业之间存在双向关系,通货膨胀与经济增长之间存在单向关系(INFR→GDPGR),通货膨胀与失业之间存在单向关系(INFR→DUR)。在这种情况下,货币和财政政策可能不再有效地实现决策者的经济增长和发展目标。
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引用次数: 0
Financial protection from health care spending in Argentina: evolution and distribution (1985-2018) 阿根廷卫生保健支出的财政保护:演变和分布(1985-2018)
Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.25115/eea.v40i2.7147
Juan Marcelo Virdis, María Eugenia Elorza, Fernando Delbianco
INTRODUCTION: Financial protection from healthcare spending has become an important objective to be addressed by health systems all over the world. A common strategy used to assess financial protection from health care is to estimate the proportion of the population for which out-of-pocket expenditures made at the moment of receiving health services (OOP) might affect the consumption of other goods and services. To this end, two groups of indicators have been developed: catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) and impoverishing health expenditure (IHE).  This work aims to investigate how CHE and IHE evolved in Argentina and how equitable was distributed between 1985 and 2018.METHODOLOGY: we estimated CHE and IHE measures, concentration indexes and concentration curves for all studied periods. In addition, we performed dominance analysis of concentration curves in order to assess changes in the distribution of CHE. RESULTS: In 2017/18, 9.57 % of Argentina’s population incurred in CHE using a 10 % of total expenditure (EXP) threshold, 5.81 % using a 15 % of EXP, 4.52 % using a 25 % of EXP net of food spending (ATP), and 1.87 % using a 40 % of ATP. All CHE headcount measures dropped considerably between 1996/97 and 2017/18. IHE measures resulted in nearly zero values. The distribution of CHE was found to be progressive in all periods applying different thresholds. Dominance analysis and CI show that 2004/05 was the most progressive period. However, dominance between curves was only found using low specificity criteria.DISCUSSION: We found evidence of higher financial protection in the most recent studied period and progressivity of CHE in all periods. A further question to be assessed is whether the lower CHE and progressivity in its distribution is a consequence of an effective public policy or difficulties to access health care.
导言:医疗保健支出的财务保护已成为世界各地卫生系统要解决的一个重要目标。用于评估保健方面的财务保护的一个共同战略是,估计在接受保健服务时的自付支出可能影响到其他商品和服务消费的人口比例。为此目的,制定了两组指标:灾难性保健支出(CHE)和贫困化保健支出(IHE)。这项工作旨在调查阿根廷的CHE和IHE是如何演变的,以及1985年至2018年间的公平分配情况。方法:我们估计了所有研究时期的CHE和IHE测量、浓度指数和浓度曲线。此外,我们进行了浓度曲线的优势度分析,以评估CHE分布的变化。结果:在2017/18年度,9.57%的阿根廷人口使用了总支出(EXP)的10%的阈值,5.81%使用了15%的EXP, 4.52%使用了25%的EXP净食品支出(ATP), 1.87%使用了40%的ATP。1996/97至2017/18年间,所有CHE员工人数都大幅下降。IHE测量的结果几乎为零。在应用不同阈值的所有时期,CHE的分布都是渐进的。优势度分析和CI显示,2004/05年是最进步的时期。然而,曲线之间的优势仅在低特异性标准下发现。讨论:我们发现证据表明,在最近的研究时期,较高的财务保护和累进的CHE在所有时期。需要评估的另一个问题是,较低的社会福利水平及其分配的累进性是有效的公共政策的结果,还是难以获得保健的结果。
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引用次数: 0
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Studies of Applied Economics
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