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Bayesian Decision Analysis For Benchmarking Daily And Monthly Time Series 为每日和每月时间序列设定基准的贝叶斯决策分析
Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v42i1.9564
J. Sanz-Gómez, J. Rojo-García
In Business Time Series analysis, daily disaggregation of monthly time series is often needed when adjusting financial series (stock options, swaps, mortgages or other loans). The classical stochastic adjustment methods only allow quarterly or monthly benchmarks to be estimated and can only be applied when high frequency is a regular multiple of low frequency. Thus, they fail to offer solutions for such problems, thereby evidencing the need to develop tools and methods for high-frequency series (daily or weekly ones). This paper obtains the first known method for using daily indicators, taking into account the different number of days for each month. The proposed Bayesian (normal-gamma) method can employ several indicators for the likelihood model, also obtaining an explicit (non iterative) solution for the optimal estimate of high frequency series. It is also important to observe that the model includes a correction mechanism for volatile indicators, as is often found in benchmarking problems for small areas. The methodology, in the line of normal-gamma specifications, allows Bayesian Credibility intervals for the estimated daily series. 
在商业时间序列分析中,调整金融序列(股票期权、掉期、抵押贷款或其他贷款)时往往需要对月度时间序列进行日分解。经典的随机调整方法只能估算季度或月度基准,而且只能在高频是低频的正整倍数时使用。因此,这些方法无法解决此类问题,从而证明有必要开发适用于高频序列(日或周)的工具和方法。考虑到每个月的天数不同,本文首次提出了使用日指标的已知方法。所提出的贝叶斯(正态-伽马)方法可以在似然模型中使用多个指标,还可以获得高频序列最优估计的明确(非迭代)解决方案。同样重要的是,该模型还包括对波动指标的修正机制,这在小地区的基准问题中经常出现。该方法采用正态-伽马规格,允许对估计的日序列进行贝叶斯可信区间计算。
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引用次数: 0
Clustering analysis on Hurst dynamic 赫斯特动态聚类分析
Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v42i1.9527
Fabrizio Di Sciorio
This research focuses on utilizing the Hurst exponent () as a critical measure of relative volatility, with a specific emphasis on its ideal value of . The paper introduces an innovative simulation process for  based on an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic differential equation while simultaneously estimating the  parameter that governs the rate at which  reverts to its initial efficiency level of . The empirical segment of the study aims to compare the  parameters of numerous stocks computed through a stochastic simulation approach. The  value represents the speed at which  reverts to the value of  over extended periods.
本文的研究重点是利用赫斯特指数()作为衡量相对波动性的一个关键指标,并特别强调其理想 值为......。 本文介绍了一种基于奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克随机微分方程的创新模拟程序,同时还估算了控制回归 到初始效率水平......的速度的参数。 研究的实证部分旨在比较通过随机模拟方法计算出的众多股票的参数。该值表示在较长时期内恢复到......值的速度。
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引用次数: 0
Internal and external factors related to the Return On Equity (ROE) of Ecuadorian Savings and Credit Cooperatives, Segment 1, Period 2014 – 2020 与2014 - 2020年期间厄瓜多尔储蓄和信用合作社第1部分的股本回报率(ROE)相关的内部和外部因素
Pub Date : 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.8651
Aníbal Quintanilla Gavilanes, Jennifer Del Pilar Quintanilla Castellanos, Tatiana Fedayina Chan Paredes, Werner Chagerben
Savings and Credit Cooperatives in Ecuador play a very important role in the socioeconomic development of communities, productive associations and other niches that are not financially served by traditional private banks, both national and foreign. In fact, the financial inclusion of productive and consumer units in the rural sector - above all - depends on the economic and financial sustainability of these entities. In this context, it is important to know how profitable cooperatives are in Ecuador, identifying those factors, internal and external, that explain such profitability; for this reason, this article aims to analyze the relationship between internal factors such as liquidity, management and solvency indicators; and external factors such as inflation and real GDP with the profitability of cooperatives, segment I, measured through the Return On Equity (ROE). Using econometric techniques, it is found that the country's production level and the generalized price level as external factors, maintain a statistically significant relationship with respect to the ROE of the cooperatives.
厄瓜多尔的储蓄和信贷合作社在社区的社会经济发展、生产协会和其他传统的国内和外国私人银行不提供金融服务的利基方面发挥着非常重要的作用。事实上,农村部门生产单位和消费单位的金融包容性首先取决于这些实体的经济和财政可持续性。在这方面,重要的是要了解厄瓜多尔合作社的盈利情况,确定解释这种盈利能力的内部和外部因素;为此,本文旨在分析内部因素如流动性、管理和偿付能力指标之间的关系;外部因素,如通货膨胀和实际GDP与合作社的盈利能力,部分I,通过净资产收益率(ROE)衡量。运用计量经济学的方法,我们发现国家的生产水平和一般价格水平作为外部因素,对合作社的净资产收益率保持着统计学上显著的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Digital Financial Behavior of Rural Farmer Households During the Covid-19 Pandemic 新冠肺炎疫情期间农户数字金融行为研究
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.7017
I. Mukhlis, A. Pratama, Diah Wahyuningsih
This study aims to analyze the behavior of the digital economy of rural farmers in using direct cash assistance from the government during the Covid-19 pandemic. Direct cash assistance is a social protection program from the government to maintain the ability to have purchasing power in meeting the needs of life. The subjects of this study were people who had livelihoods as farmers in various villages in Semen District, Gampengrejo District and Ngasem District, Donomulyo District, Sumbermanjing Wetan District, Wates District, and Binangun District, East Java Province, Indonesia. This type of research is explanatory and the data analysis method is carried out descriptively. The sampling method was carried out using a simple random sampling method on groups of farmer households in the village within the period of April-June 2021. Meanwhile, data collection is carried out by conducting in-depth interviews, observations, and distributing questionnaires. The number of samples that can be collected from data collection are 760 respondents. The results of the study provide results that the behavior of the digital economy of rural farmers is influenced by cost, privacy, and social factors. Direct cash assistance provided by the government to farmers encourages changes in farmers' behavior in conducting non-cash transactions. To encourage the digitization of non-cash transactions, it is necessary: the existence of digital literacy activities for farmers through the provision of IT supporting facilities and infrastructure, assistance in the use of IT in financial transactions, and, the existence of regulations that can facilitate farmers' access to digital financial transaction activities.
本研究旨在分析2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,农村农民在使用政府直接现金援助时的数字经济行为。直接现金援助是政府提供的一项社会保障计划,目的是维持人们在满足生活需要方面的购买力。本研究的对象是在印度尼西亚东爪哇省Semen区、Gampengrejo区和Ngasem区、Donomulyo区、Sumbermanjing Wetan区、Wates区和Binangun区各个村庄以农民为生的人。这种类型的研究是解释性的,数据分析方法是描述性的。抽样方法采用简单随机抽样法,于2021年4 - 6月对该村农户分组进行抽样。同时,通过深入访谈、观察、发放问卷等方式进行数据收集。从数据收集中可以收集到的样本数量为760个。研究结果表明,农村农民的数字经济行为受到成本、隐私和社会因素的影响。政府向农民提供直接现金援助,鼓励农民改变非现金交易行为。为了鼓励非现金交易的数字化,有必要:通过提供it支持设施和基础设施,为农民提供数字扫盲活动,帮助他们在金融交易中使用it,以及制定有利于农民参与数字金融交易活动的法规。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of ESG Criteria on Company Valuation: A Quantitative Approach Applied to the O&G Sector ESG标准对公司估值的影响:应用于油气行业的定量方法
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9186
Antonio García Amate
The integration of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria implies that they must be explicitly introduced into valuation models and investment decisions. Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) does not take into account this integration, so it is necessary to know the real impact that ESG criteria have on the valuation of actions to carry out effective investment decisions. The approach used is the Value – Drivers Adjustment (VDA) through the Discounted Cash Flow (DFC) method for Shell PLC as one of the most influential O&G companies in the energy transition. The results of the analysis reveal that the impact of ESG criteria on valuation translates into a reduction of 29.11% of its target price. The need for investment and the rising cost of capital explain these result. This results in a more comprehensive valuation method, where ESG criteria are no longer supplementary information and become indirect financial elements.  
环境、社会和治理(ESG)标准的整合意味着它们必须明确地引入估值模型和投资决策。社会责任投资(SRI)没有考虑到这种整合,因此有必要了解ESG标准对实施有效投资决策的行动评估的实际影响。作为能源转型中最具影响力的油气公司之一,壳牌公司采用的方法是通过贴现现金流(DFC)方法进行价值驱动因素调整(VDA)。分析结果显示,ESG标准对估值的影响转化为其目标价的29.11%的降低。投资需求和资本成本上升解释了这些结果。这导致了更全面的估值方法,其中ESG标准不再是补充信息,而成为间接的财务要素。
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引用次数: 0
modelo de participación de mercado constante aplicado a las exportaciones brasileñas de Yerba Mate, 2001-2020 2001-2020年巴西马黛茶出口的恒定市场份额模型
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.7863
Twanny Emmanuelly Gomes de Oliveira, Clailton Ataídes de Freitas, Rita Inês Paetzhold Pauli
Este artículo tiene como objetivo analizar el desempeño de las exportaciones brasileñas de Yerba Mate de 2001 a 2020, así como sus principales fuentes de crecimiento. Para ello se aplicó el modelo de Participación de Mercado Constante a las dos primeras décadas del siglo XXI, con énfasis en los subperíodos 2001-2004, 2005-2010, 2011-2015 y 2016-2020. Los resultados muestran que el efecto del crecimiento del comercio mundial y la competitividad fueron los que más influyeron en el crecimiento de las exportaciones de la industria de hierbas en Brasil. Y el efecto del mercado regional o del destino de las exportaciones fue lo que más afectó el desempeño del sector, excepto en el último subperíodo analizado, en el que las exportaciones de Yerba Mate mostraron una mejora significativa con relación a años anteriores. Se puede inferir del análisis que Brasil tiene gran importancia en el comercio internacional de Yerba Mate y que se pueden alcanzar posiciones destacadas más allá de las exportaciones primarias de este producto.
本文分析了2001年至2020年巴西马黛茶出口的表现,以及其主要增长来源。为此,我们将恒定市场份额模型应用于21世纪的前20年,重点是2001-2004年、2005-2010年、2011-2015年和2016-2020年的子时期。结果表明,世界贸易增长和竞争力对巴西药草产业出口增长的影响最大。在分析的最后一个分期间,巴拉圭茶的出口比前几年有了显著改善,但区域市场或出口目的地的影响对该部门的业绩影响最大。从分析中可以推断,巴西在巴拉圭茶的国际贸易中非常重要,在该产品的初级出口之外可以达到突出的地位。
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引用次数: 0
Componentes de las exportaciones de confecciones colombianos 哥伦比亚服装出口的零部件
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9170
José Albán Londoño Arias, Marisol Valencia Cárdenas
Las exportaciones latinoamericanas han tenido diversificaciones importantes y una determinada participación de productos primarios y minerales, que dejan preguntas acerca de la degradación del medio ambiente, como también, del verdadero potencial de la región. En esta investigación se realiza una descripción y análisis de series de tiempo de exportaciones de las confecciones, presentando el alcance correlacional y analítico para Colombia, de los aranceles 61 y 62, en relación con las del grupo de países de agregación de América Latina, entre 2002 y 2021, aplicando la estimación del modelo de series de tiempo lineal dinámico. Entre los resultados, se encuentra que hay una baja participación de los productos colombianos, en las exportaciones de estas confecciones y además, se observa un decrecimiento del valor comercializado en el tiempo, sin embargo, se encuentra un potencial de mejora para los meses de vacaciones, días especiales, favoreciendo dicho comercio, que, además, mejora con el aumento de la inversión extranjera directa. Entre las limitaciones detectadas, se aprecia que es menester mejorar apoyos, innovación y gestión financiera de este tipo de empresas.
拉丁美洲的出口具有相当大的多样化,初级产品和矿物在一定程度上占了份额,这使人们对环境退化和该区域的真正潜力产生了疑问。在此项调查进行描述与分析出口时序分析confecciones介绍correlacional范围和关税为哥伦比亚、61和62,拉丁美洲国家集团聚合,估计2002年至2021年,实施动态线性时序模型。,结果发现有低至哥伦比亚产品,参与这些confecciones并出口,减少随时间变化的商业化价值,然而,正在改进的潜力特别月假期,天,这种贸易,此外,改善与外国直接投资增加。在确定的限制中,有必要改善对这类企业的支持、创新和财务管理。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Fluctuation of the International Oil Prices on the Public Budget of Iraq (An Analytical Study During the Period from (2001 - 2019) 国际油价波动对伊拉克公共预算的影响(2001 - 2019年)
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.7022
Roaa Kadhim
This research aimed to Determining the extents to which oil domination over public finance in Iraq has reached and determining the proposed future scenarios ,Iraqi economy loses an amount more than a billion dollars due to lower crude oil prices, the amount of one dollar in the price of a barrel of oil produced by the compounding of the budget deficit, to be investment spending is the victim of any drop in oil prices, which means stop wheel ages and growth in Economy, It was also suggested that Mali establish a sovereign fund that is tied to the country's fiscal policy and serves as collateral for future generations, with the savings portion of oil revenues and other miscellaneous income channeled through the fiscal deficit to compensate for and act as an emergency fund. That is why the fluctuation of oil prices and its impact on the general budget was chosen, and data were collected from the Central Bank, the Iraqi Ministry of Finance and OPEC, and the study is based on a review of the various literature presented in the paper.  For the purpose of the current study, the oil sector was chosen. The variables of exchange rate, gross domestic product, price per barrel, oil revenues, oil revenues, and inflation were measured with the help of data on a scale by using the multiple regression model. Indeed, the volatility of oil prices has been measured. The study concluded that there is an impact of oil price fluctuation on the general budget . The Iraqi economy loses more than one billion dollars due to the drop in crude oil prices by one dollar in the price of a barrel of oil it exports, which exacerbates its budget deficit. This paper contributes to the search for an alternative standard model that is able to effectively explain the impact of oil price fluctuations on the public budget in Iraq.This paper will be valuable for decision makers in Iraq to know the impact of oil price fluctuations on the public budget and reduce the budget's dependence on oil revenues.
本研究旨在确定石油的区段控制公共财政在伊拉克已经达到和决定提出的未来场景,伊拉克经济失去一个金额超过十亿美元由于原油价格下跌,量一美元一桶石油的价格产生的复利的预算赤字,投资支出是任何油价下跌的受害者,这意味着停止轮年龄和经济的增长,还有人建议马里设立一个主权基金,与该国的财政政策挂钩,作为后代的抵押品,将石油收入和其他杂项收入的储蓄部分通过财政赤字加以弥补,并作为应急基金。这就是为什么选择了石油价格波动及其对一般预算的影响,并从中央银行、伊拉克财政部和石油输出国组织收集了数据,这项研究是基于对论文中提出的各种文献的审查。为了本研究的目的,选择了石油部门。运用多元回归模型对汇率、国内生产总值、每桶价格、石油收入、石油收入、通货膨胀等变量进行了尺度上的数据测量。事实上,油价的波动已经得到了衡量。该研究的结论是,油价波动对一般预算有影响。伊拉克出口的原油价格每每桶下跌1美元,伊拉克经济就会损失10亿美元以上,预算赤字也会进一步扩大。本文有助于寻找一种能够有效解释石油价格波动对伊拉克公共预算影响的替代标准模型。本文将有助于伊拉克决策者了解石油价格波动对公共预算的影响,减少预算对石油收入的依赖。
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引用次数: 0
Relación entre los componentes del modelo de negocio, las dimensiones del desarrollo sostenible empresarial y los resultados financieros. Caso: Emprendimientos dedicados al comercio en la parroquia Tarqui de la ciudad de Guayaquil 商业模式的组成部分、可持续商业发展的维度和财务结果之间的关系。案例:瓜亚基尔市塔尔基教区致力于贸易的企业
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9041
L. Chagerben, Enith Rosamelia López Franco, Jorge Quintanilla Castellanos, Freddy Manuel Cortez Bailón
El artículo presente hace referencia a la práctica de las empresas relacionadas a los componentes del modelo de negocio (MN), las dimensiones del desarrollo sostenible empresarial (DSE) y el rendimiento financiero, tomando como objeto de estudio a los emprendimientos empresariales dedicados al comercio en la parroquia Tarqui de la ciudad de Guayaquil. Hoy en día para las empresas resulta una tarea muy complicada mantenerse en el mercado, es por eso que el principal propósito de la investigación, es analizar la relación o nivel de asociatividad entre las variables MN, DSE y los rendimientos financieros; para aquello se hizo una revisión de la literatura donde diversos autores destacan la importancia de las variables MN y DSE para el éxito empresarial; adicional se seleccionó una muestra de 29 de empresas donde se extrajo información de las variables de estudio con el fin de describir y relacionar su comportamiento, dando como resultado que la empresas que cumplen con mayor eficacia y eficiencia actividades relacionadas a los componentes del modelo de negocio y las dimensiones sostenibles son las que presentan resultados financieros favorables.
本指条做法有关的企业商业模式的组成部分(MN),企业可持续发展的方方面面(DSE)、金融效率,为研究对象从事商业贸易企业市教区Tarqui瓜亚基尔。如今,对于企业来说,留在市场上是一项非常复杂的任务,这就是为什么本研究的主要目的,是分析变量MN、DSE和财务回报之间的关系或结合水平;为此,我们进行了文献综述,其中一些作者强调了变量MN和DSE对商业成功的重要性;29日被挑选显示附加信息中提取的企业以描述和研究变量就会联系他的行为,导致公司与提高效率和有效性的相关活动可持续商业模式的组成部分和维度是有利金融提出了相互矛盾的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Does Financial Development Drive Private Investment? An Econometric Study with reference to Cote d’Ivoire 金融发展推动私人投资吗?参考科特迪瓦的计量经济学研究
Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9086
Y. Keho
This study examines the impact of financial development on domestic investment in Cote d’Ivoire. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and domestic credit to private sector as share of GDP as proxy for financial development along with the other control variables, we estimate a private investment function for the 1975-2019 period. The main finding of the study is that domestic credit to private sector has a negative effect on private investment rate. Further, the results show that real GDP per capita and trade openness are positively related to private investment rate.
本研究探讨了金融发展对科特迪瓦国内投资的影响。使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法,并将私营部门的国内信贷占GDP的份额作为金融发展的代理,以及其他控制变量,我们估计了1975-2019年期间的私人投资函数。研究的主要发现是,国内对私营部门的信贷对私人投资率有负向影响。进一步,研究结果表明,实际人均GDP和贸易开放度与民间投资率呈正相关。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Studies of Applied Economics
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