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Effectiveness of Integrating Ensemble-Based Feature Selection and Novel Gradient Boosted Trees in Runoff Prediction: A Case Study in Vu Gia Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam 基于集合的特征选择与新型梯度提升树在径流预测中的整合效果:越南 Vu Gia Thu Bon 河流域案例研究
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-28 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03486-0
Oluwatobi Aiyelokun, Quoc Bao Pham, Oluwafunbi Aiyelokun, Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh, Tirthankar Roy, Duong Tran Anh, Ewa Łupikasza

Traditional rainfall-runoff modeling techniques require large datasets and often an exhaustive calibration process, which is challenging, especially in poorly-gauged basins and resource-limited settings. Therefore, it is necessary to examine new ways of constructing predictive models for runoff that can achieve satisfactory results, while also minimizing the data requirement and model construction time. In this study, the effectiveness of integrating the Random Forest (RF) as an important feature identifier with novel gradient boosted trees to achieve satisfactory results was examined for two adjacent catchments in Vietnam. Antecedent daily runoff in combination with daily and one-day antecedent rainfall was found to significantly influence the runoff at the outlet of the catchments. Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were effective in predicting day-ahead runoff. For instance, CatBoost with NSE, d, r, and R2 values of 0.92, 0.98, 0.96, and 0.92, respectively, and XGBoost with NSE, d, r, and R2 values of 0.91, 0.98, 0.96, and 0.92, respectively, are well suited for predicting runoff. A comparative analysis of their results with previous studies revealed that the models were very effective since they were able to better reduce generalization errors at different calibration and validation phases. This study presents the integration of RF and gradient boosted trees as a simplified alternative to computationally expensive and data-intensive physically-based rainfall-runoff models. The practitioners can build upon the experimentation presented in this study to minimize the computational time requirement, construction process complexity, and data requirement, which are often serious constraints in physically-based rainfall-runoff modeling.

传统的降雨-径流建模技术需要大量的数据集,通常还需要详尽的校准过程,这具有很大的挑战性,尤其是在测雨条件较差的流域和资源有限的环境中。因此,有必要研究构建径流预测模型的新方法,既能取得令人满意的结果,又能最大限度地减少数据需求和模型构建时间。在本研究中,针对越南两个相邻的集水区,考察了将随机森林(RF)作为重要特征识别器与新型梯度提升树相结合以获得满意结果的有效性。研究发现,前一日径流量与前一日降雨量相结合,对集水区出口处的径流量有显著影响。分类推算(CatBoost)和极梯度推算(XGBoost)对预测当日径流量非常有效。例如,CatBoost 的 NSE、d、r 和 R2 值分别为 0.92、0.98、0.96 和 0.92,XGBoost 的 NSE、d、r 和 R2 值分别为 0.91、0.98、0.96 和 0.92,非常适合预测径流。将其结果与之前的研究结果进行比较分析后发现,这些模型非常有效,因为它们能够在不同的校准和验证阶段更好地减少泛化误差。本研究介绍了射频和梯度提升树的集成,作为计算昂贵和数据密集型物理降雨-径流模型的简化替代方案。实践者可以在本研究提出的实验基础上,最大限度地减少计算时间要求、构建过程复杂性和数据要求,这些往往是基于物理的降雨-径流建模的严重制约因素。
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引用次数: 0
GNSS Gravity Leveling 全球导航卫星系统重力水平仪
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03492-2
Hurong Duan, Yerui Zhang, Lelin Xing, Weifeng Liang

A new method of GNSS gravity leveling is introduced to determine precisely normal height differences, Both the principle and application of the method are elaborated. Leveling surveying, gravity measurements, and GNSS measurements are carried out in a special region (including slopes, valleys and mountain ridges) to verify its accuracy by combining with gravity potential model. The results show that the precision by this method is mainly influenced by ellipsoidal height differences, gravity potential models, and gravity observations. However, the error by this method exhibits a clear linear relationship with the height difference, while it is independent of the length of the survey line. Within a specific range of height differences (within 360 m), the precision of the GNSS gravity leveling can reach the level of ± 10 mm. This method can, to some extent, provides a modern solution for height measurement which can replace the high-precision leveling surveying. The advantages of GNSS gravity leveling include high precision and high efficiency. It has a promising application prospect in geodesy, hydraulic engineering, earthquake and volcano monitoring.

介绍了一种精确测定正常高差的全球导航卫星系统重力水准测量新方法,并阐述了该方法的原理和应用。在一个特殊区域(包括斜坡、山谷和山脊)进行了水准测量、重力测量和全球导航卫星系统测量,通过与重力势能模型相结合来验证其精度。结果表明,该方法的精度主要受椭球高差、重力势能模型和重力观测数据的影响。不过,该方法的误差与高差呈明显的线性关系,而与测线长度无关。在特定的高度差范围内(360 米以内),全球导航卫星系统重力水准测量的精度可达 ± 10 毫米。这种方法在一定程度上为高程测量提供了一种现代化的解决方案,可以取代高精度水准测量。全球导航卫星系统重力水准测量的优点是精度高、效率高。它在大地测量、水利工程、地震和火山监测方面具有广阔的应用前景。
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引用次数: 0
Deformation and Frictional Failure of Granular Media in 3D Analog and Numerical Experiments 三维模拟和数值实验中颗粒介质的变形和摩擦破坏
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03464-6
P. I. Ioannidi, S. McLafferty, J. E. Reber, G. Morra, D. Weatherley
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引用次数: 0
Characterization of Seismicity and Seismic Hazard in the Coquimbo Region, Chile: A Probabilistic Study 智利科金博地区的地震特征和地震危害:概率研究
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03474-4
Valentina Ojeda, P. Vega-Jorquera, Erick de la Barra, Luis Palma-Chilla, Luis Vidal, José Saavedra, Alfredo Pizarro
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引用次数: 0
Typical of Tsunami Hazard Potential from Earthquake and Landslide Sources in Palabuhanratu Bay, Indonesia 印度尼西亚帕拉布汉拉图湾地震和山体滑坡源海啸潜在危害的典型情况
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03483-3
W. Setyonegoro, A. Gusman, Muhammad Hanif, Telly Kurniawan, Sri Ardhyastuti, Muhamad Mahfud Muqoddas, Mamoru Nakamura, P. Putra, S. Husrin, N. Hanifa, S. H. Nugroho, Evie Hadrijantie Sudjono, T. Anggono, F. Febriani, P. Supendi, Mohamad Ramdhan, Agustya Adi Martha, A. Tohari, Iyan Turyana
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引用次数: 0
Features of the Waveforms of Nuclear Explosions and Earthquakes from the Lop Nor Test Site Area According to the Data of Seismic Stations in Central Asia 中亚地震台站数据显示的罗布泊核试验场地区核爆炸和地震波形特征
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-23 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03482-4
Anna Berezina, Inna Sokolova, Yuri Kopnichev, Elena Pershina, Tatiana Nikitenko
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引用次数: 0
Temporal and Spatial Variations in Tropopause Pressure Levels (TPLs) Across the Northern Hemisphere 北半球对流层顶压力水平 (TPLs) 的时空变化
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03484-2
H. Asakereh, Soma Zandkarimi
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引用次数: 0
A One-Way Coupled Navier–Stokes-Serre Model for Simulating the Generation and Propagation of Tsunami Waves 模拟海啸波产生和传播的单向耦合纳维-斯托克斯-塞雷模型
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-20 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03485-1
Zhikang Xin, Yunfeng Shi, Yunxing Zhang, Yifan Zhang

In this paper, a two-dimensional numerical model for simulating the generation and propagation of tsunami waves caused by upthrust bed movement is developed. To consider the nonlinearity as well as save the computational cost, a Navier–Stokes equation solver is used for the generation zone, and a Serre equation solver is adopted for the downstream evolution of the tsunami waves. The solution of the Navier–Stokes equation solver is extracted and transferred as the initial solution of the Serre solver, which means a one-way coupling is achieved. In this way, a one-way coupled Navier–Stokes-Serre model is obtained. After a detailed validation of the individual solvers, the coupled model is utilized for simulating the generation and propagation of tsunami waves caused by the upthrust bed movement in shallow water of uniform depth. It is found that the coupled model is comparable to the traditional Boussinesq equation model. Finally, the capacity of the coupled model for simulating wave-breaking cases is demonstrated.

本文建立了一个二维数值模型,用于模拟隆起床运动引起的海啸波的产生和传播。为了考虑非线性并节省计算成本,生成区采用 Navier-Stokes 方程求解器,海啸波的下游演变采用 Serre 方程求解器。纳维-斯托克斯方程求解器的解被提取并转移作为塞雷方程求解器的初始解,这意味着实现了单向耦合。这样,就得到了单向耦合的纳维-斯托克斯-塞雷模型。在对各个求解器进行详细验证后,利用该耦合模型模拟了在深度均匀的浅水中由隆起床运动引起的海啸波的产生和传播。结果发现,耦合模型与传统的布森斯克方程模型相当。最后,演示了耦合模型模拟破浪情况的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the 2022 Tonga Eruption Tsunami Recorded on Ocean Bottom Pressure and Tide Gauges Around the Pacific 太平洋周边洋底压力和潮汐测量仪记录的 2022 年汤加火山爆发海啸建模
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03477-1
Yushiro Fujii, Kenji Satake

Tsunamis generated by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption on January 15, 2022 were recorded on ocean bottom pressure and tide gauges around the Pacific Ocean, earlier than the expected arrival times calculated by tsunami propagation speed. Atmospheric waves from the eruption were also recorded globally with propagation speeds of ~ 310 m/s (Lamb wave) and 200–250 m/s (Pekeris wave). Previous studies have suggested that these propagating atmospheric waves caused at least the initial part of the observed tsunami. We simulated the tsunamis generated by the propagation of the Lamb and Pekeris waves by adding concentric atmospheric pressure changes. The concentric sources are parameterized by their propagation speeds, initial atmospheric wave amplitudes that decay with the distance, and a rise time. For the Lamb wave, inversions of the observed tsunami waveforms at 14 U.S. and nine New Zealand DART stations indicate the start of the positive rise at 4:16 UTC, the peak amplitude of 383 hPa, and the propagation speed of 310 m/s, assuming a rise time of 10 min. The later phases of the observed tsunami waveforms can be better reproduced by adding another propagating concentric wave (Pekeris wave) with a negative amplitude (− 50 hPa) and propagation speeds of 200–250 m/s. The DART records around the Pacific indicate that the Pekeris wave speed is faster toward the northwest and slightly slower toward the northeast. The synthetic waveforms roughly reproduced the far-field tsunami waveforms recorded at tide gauge stations, including the later phases, suggesting that the large amplitude in the later phase may be due to the coupling of the Pekeris wave and the tsunami, as well as resonance around tide gauge stations.

2022 年 1 月 15 日洪加汤加-洪加哈帕伊火山爆发产生的海啸在太平洋周围的海底压力和潮汐测量仪上都有记录,早于根据海啸传播速度计算的预计到达时间。在全球范围内也记录到了火山爆发产生的大气波,其传播速度约为每秒 310 米(Lamb 波)和每秒 200-250 米(Pekeris 波)。以前的研究表明,这些传播的大气波至少引起了观测到的海啸的最初部分。我们通过增加同心的大气压力变化,模拟了由 Lamb 波和 Pekeris 波传播产生的海啸。同心源的参数包括传播速度、随距离衰减的初始大气波幅和上升时间。对于兰姆波,14 个美国和 9 个新西兰 DART 站观测到的海啸波形反演表明,正上升开始时间为世界协调时 4:16,峰值振幅为 383 hPa,传播速度为 310 m/s(假设上升时间为 10 分钟)。如果再加上一个传播速度为 200-250 米/秒、振幅为负值(- 50 hPa)的同心波(Pekeris 波),就能更好地再现观测到的海啸波形的后期阶段。太平洋周围的 DART 记录表明,Pekeris 波的速度向西北方向较快,向东北方向稍慢。合成波形大致再现了验潮站记录的远场海啸波形,包括后期阶段,这表明后期阶段的大振幅可能是由于 Pekeris 波和海啸的耦合以及验潮站周围的共振造成的。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Surface Loading on GNSS Stations in Africa 地表负载对非洲全球导航卫星系统台站的影响
IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q2 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-024-03480-6
Saturday E. Usifoh, Nhung Le, Benjamin Männel, Pierre Sakic, Joseph Dodo, Harald Schuh

The movement of the Earth's surface mass, including the atmosphere and oceans, as well as hydrology and glacier melting, causes the redistribution of surface loads, deformation of the solid Earth, and fluctuations in the gravity field. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provide useful information about the movement of the Earth's surface mass. The impact of surface loading deformation over 145 GNSS sites in Africa was investigated using vertical height time series analysis. The study investigates and quantifies the impact of surface loading on the GNSS coordinates utilizing GNSS Precise Point Positioning (PPP) approach. The German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) EPOS.P8 software was used to process and analyze eleven years of GPS data from all the stations, as well as dedicated hydrological and atmospheric loading correction models given by the Earth System Modeling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (ESMGFZ). The results of the hydrological loading corrections arising from the surface-deformation were analysed to determine the extent of station improvements. The results revealed about 40% of the stations showed improvement with an average Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) residual of 7.3 mm before the application of the hydrological loading corrections and 7.1 mm Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) after the application of the hydrological loading corrections. Similarly, the atmospheric loading corrections gave an improvement of about 57%. Furthermore, the amplitude values decreased from 4.1–8.1 mm to 3.5–6.2 mm after atmospheric loading corrections. This finding presupposes that applying loading corrections to the derived time series reduces amplitude in some African regions.

地球表面物质的运动,包括大气和海洋以及水文和冰川融化,造成了地表负荷的重新分配、固体地球的变形和重力场的波动。全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)提供了有关地球表面物质运动的有用信息。利用垂直高度时间序列分析,对非洲 145 个全球导航卫星系统站点的地表负载变形的影响进行了研究。该研究利用全球导航卫星系统精确点定位(PPP)方法,调查并量化了地表载荷对全球导航卫星系统坐标的影响。使用德国地球科学研究中心(GFZ)的 EPOS.P8 软件处理和分析了来自所有站点的十一年全球定位系统数据,以及德国地球科学研究中心(ESMGFZ)地球系统建模小组提供的专用水文和大气负荷校正模型。对地表变形引起的水文负荷修正结果进行了分析,以确定站点改进的程度。结果显示,约 40% 的测站得到了改善,在应用水文载荷修正之前,平均残差均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 7.3 毫米,应用水文载荷修正之后,平均残差均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 7.1 毫米。同样,大气负荷校正也改善了约 57%。此外,经过大气负荷修正后,振幅值从 4.1-8.1 毫米降至 3.5-6.2 毫米。这一发现预示着,对得出的时间序列进行负荷校正会降低某些非洲地区的振幅。
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