Pub Date : 2021-04-10DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.069
S. Shishkov
The article points to the critically insufficient compliance of Ukraine's stock market infrastructure with the relevant international recommendations, first of all in the segment of securities settlements. The author states that despite the creation of market infrastructure in Ukraine and the possibility to avoid problems related to the evolutionary errors, the market participants face numerous difficulties, such as risks in legal empowerment and in the activities of key infrastructure actors, limited competition, excessive transaction costs, ongoing defragmentation of the system of depository accounting, as well as inconvenience and limitations of the existing risk management systems. The study on the evolution of securities settlement models in Ukraine revealed that the radical reform of infrastructure in 2013 led to contradictory consequences, in particular, the abuse by the settlement bank and the central counterparty of its monopolistic positions, active participation of this monopolist in high-profile market abuse, stagnation in clearing and settlement technologies, and a slowdown in the development of the derivatives market. It was found that, despite lengthy discussions, the updated legislation in the field of organized capital markets, which is designed to implement a number of EU laws and should enter into force in 2021, does not really rectify the problems in the existing infrastructure, in particular due to a rather dubious proposed procedure of securities settlement and conservation for a few more years of the monopoly in the field of settlement and clearing services. It is substantiated that Ukraine has constructive practical experience and skills that can allow to implement the best international standards for building a system of cash settlements in "central bank money", organically integrated into Ukrainian payment system and able to adapt to European payment systems.
{"title":"Prospects and limitations in the modernization of securities settlement operations in Ukraine","authors":"S. Shishkov","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.069","url":null,"abstract":"The article points to the critically insufficient compliance of Ukraine's stock market infrastructure with the relevant international recommendations, first of all in the segment of securities settlements. The author states that despite the creation of market infrastructure in Ukraine and the possibility to avoid problems related to the evolutionary errors, the market participants face numerous difficulties, such as risks in legal empowerment and in the activities of key infrastructure actors, limited competition, excessive transaction costs, ongoing defragmentation of the system of depository accounting, as well as inconvenience and limitations of the existing risk management systems. The study on the evolution of securities settlement models in Ukraine revealed that the radical reform of infrastructure in 2013 led to contradictory consequences, in particular, the abuse by the settlement bank and the central counterparty of its monopolistic positions, active participation of this monopolist in high-profile market abuse, stagnation in clearing and settlement technologies, and a slowdown in the development of the derivatives market. It was found that, despite lengthy discussions, the updated legislation in the field of organized capital markets, which is designed to implement a number of EU laws and should enter into force in 2021, does not really rectify the problems in the existing infrastructure, in particular due to a rather dubious proposed procedure of securities settlement and conservation for a few more years of the monopoly in the field of settlement and clearing services. It is substantiated that Ukraine has constructive practical experience and skills that can allow to implement the best international standards for building a system of cash settlements in \"central bank money\", organically integrated into Ukrainian payment system and able to adapt to European payment systems.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"108 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116302742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-10DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.055
Olena Nikiforuk, O. Liashenko
The article investigates the experience of optimizing the institution of RIA in developed OECD countries and the European Commission, which allows to distinguish two main approaches to regulatory impact assessment, namely, using the full (classical) or simplified RIA models. The authors give particular attention to the principle of proportionality introduced in developed countries, whose essence is that the depth of analysis and evaluations should be proportional to the degree of the regulatory act's impact on economy, on individual stakeholders, and on public interests. Considered the importance of selecting "economically significant" regulatory acts. The authors carry out an analysis of the introduction of specific filters for the selection of regulatory acts for RIA in developed countries, namely: 1) definition of types of regulatory acts or spheres of regulation, which are subject to RIA; 2) classification and selection of acts according to the degree of significance; 3) and the existence of exceptions in the field of RIA in accordance with current legislation. To establish the second filter, namely to select regulatory acts based on their importance, the authors propose to use, in Ukraine, first, the introduction of the principle of proportionality, which will introduce into the practice of the assessment of regulatory acts the simplified and complete RIA models; secondly, to introduce combined (quantitative and qualitative) criteria for assessing the significance of draft regulatory acts with determining possible economic consequences of their adoption and in compliance with the criteria of priority of public interests (support for economic growth by optimizing costs and corresponding increase in value added, in the state and local budgets and others); and third, a step-by-step algorithm for implementing the world's best RIA practices into the practice of state regulation in Ukraine.
{"title":"Approaches to optimizing the procedures of regulatory impact analysis: world experience and realities of Ukraine","authors":"Olena Nikiforuk, O. Liashenko","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.055","url":null,"abstract":"The article investigates the experience of optimizing the institution of RIA in developed OECD countries and the European Commission, which allows to distinguish two main approaches to regulatory impact assessment, namely, using the full (classical) or simplified RIA models. The authors give particular attention to the principle of proportionality introduced in developed countries, whose essence is that the depth of analysis and evaluations should be proportional to the degree of the regulatory act's impact on economy, on individual stakeholders, and on public interests. Considered the importance of selecting \"economically significant\" regulatory acts. The authors carry out an analysis of the introduction of specific filters for the selection of regulatory acts for RIA in developed countries, namely: 1) definition of types of regulatory acts or spheres of regulation, which are subject to RIA; 2) classification and selection of acts according to the degree of significance; 3) and the existence of exceptions in the field of RIA in accordance with current legislation. To establish the second filter, namely to select regulatory acts based on their importance, the authors propose to use, in Ukraine, first, the introduction of the principle of proportionality, which will introduce into the practice of the assessment of regulatory acts the simplified and complete RIA models; secondly, to introduce combined (quantitative and qualitative) criteria for assessing the significance of draft regulatory acts with determining possible economic consequences of their adoption and in compliance with the criteria of priority of public interests (support for economic growth by optimizing costs and corresponding increase in value added, in the state and local budgets and others); and third, a step-by-step algorithm for implementing the world's best RIA practices into the practice of state regulation in Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114839901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-10DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.116
N. Frolova
The article is devoted to assessing the international competitiveness of the corporate profit tax system based on the approach of the US Tax Foundation, which develops International Tax Competitiveness Index of the corporate profit tax (ICI) and takes into account the level of profit tax rates, cost recovery, tax incentives and complexity of tax law. According to the analysis of the international ranking of OECD countries, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Hungary had the highest ICIs in 2019-2020. The main factors that have had a positive effect on their competitiveness are the low top marginal income tax rate, unlimited loss carryback and carryforward, no restrictions on the list of assets subject to depreciation, as well as the use of accelerated depreciation, which allows companies to compensate for a larger share of the initial value of assets, LIFO inventory or at least inventory by the weighted average cost method, no Patent Box; no tax credit for R&D, and low corporate profit tax complexity. The calculation of the ICI for Ukraine, based on the approbation of the methodological approach of the Tax Foundation, found that in 2019-2020 Ukraine with a total score of 55.07 took 24th place out of 35 OECD countries. The author characterizes the main components of Ukrainian corporate profit taxation in terms of their impact on international competitiveness; in addition, ways to increase ICI are substantiated.
{"title":"Assessment of the international competitiveness of the corporate profit tax in Ukraine","authors":"N. Frolova","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.116","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to assessing the international competitiveness of the corporate profit tax system based on the approach of the US Tax Foundation, which develops International Tax Competitiveness Index of the corporate profit tax (ICI) and takes into account the level of profit tax rates, cost recovery, tax incentives and complexity of tax law. According to the analysis of the international ranking of OECD countries, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Hungary had the highest ICIs in 2019-2020. The main factors that have had a positive effect on their competitiveness are the low top marginal income tax rate, unlimited loss carryback and carryforward, no restrictions on the list of assets subject to depreciation, as well as the use of accelerated depreciation, which allows companies to compensate for a larger share of the initial value of assets, LIFO inventory or at least inventory by the weighted average cost method, no Patent Box; no tax credit for R&D, and low corporate profit tax complexity. The calculation of the ICI for Ukraine, based on the approbation of the methodological approach of the Tax Foundation, found that in 2019-2020 Ukraine with a total score of 55.07 took 24th place out of 35 OECD countries. The author characterizes the main components of Ukrainian corporate profit taxation in terms of their impact on international competitiveness; in addition, ways to increase ICI are substantiated.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"123 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127065069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-10DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.005
V. Venger, S. Shumska
Domestic metallurgical industry is an integral part of the world industry, and its development takes place in the context of global trends, such as constant growth of metallurgical production with simultaneous excess of smelting, increasing concentration of production, and increasing consumption and export of metal products in TOP-15 leading smelting countries. The main consequence of such trends is a significant intensification of competition on the global steel market. Despite the fact, that Ukraine's metallurgical industry is an important participant in the global market of ferrous metals and raw materials for their production and has certain advantages in their production and export, like the whole Ukraine's economy, is open and small in macroeconomic terms. This gives grounds to refer Ukraine's metallurgical industry of to the category of "small open industry", which is characterized by export orientation, a small share of output in global output, exports, imports, and domestic consumption and, most importantly – by the lack of decisive influence on world prices. Since Ukraine's metallurgical industry is small and open, and the vast majority of its products are shipped to world markets, it was suggested that the dynamics of metallurgical output is directly influenced by external factors such as world steel prices, the hryvnia exchange rate and the price for natural gas. The obtained results confirmed the hypothesis that Ukraine's metallurgical industry throughout the entire study period was completely dependent on the action of external factors. In particular, the favorable price situation on the global market of metal products ensured a high dynamics of metallurgical output. At the same time, devaluation of Ukrainian national currency in different periods had different effects. The price for natural gas restrained the metallurgical output throughout the entire study period.
{"title":"Ukraine's metallurgical industry: output dynamics through the prism of external factors","authors":"V. Venger, S. Shumska","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2021.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"Domestic metallurgical industry is an integral part of the world industry, and its development takes place in the context of global trends, such as constant growth of metallurgical production with simultaneous excess of smelting, increasing concentration of production, and increasing consumption and export of metal products in TOP-15 leading smelting countries. The main consequence of such trends is a significant intensification of competition on the global steel market. Despite the fact, that Ukraine's metallurgical industry is an important participant in the global market of ferrous metals and raw materials for their production and has certain advantages in their production and export, like the whole Ukraine's economy, is open and small in macroeconomic terms. This gives grounds to refer Ukraine's metallurgical industry of to the category of \"small open industry\", which is characterized by export orientation, a small share of output in global output, exports, imports, and domestic consumption and, most importantly – by the lack of decisive influence on world prices. Since Ukraine's metallurgical industry is small and open, and the vast majority of its products are shipped to world markets, it was suggested that the dynamics of metallurgical output is directly influenced by external factors such as world steel prices, the hryvnia exchange rate and the price for natural gas. The obtained results confirmed the hypothesis that Ukraine's metallurgical industry throughout the entire study period was completely dependent on the action of external factors. In particular, the favorable price situation on the global market of metal products ensured a high dynamics of metallurgical output. At the same time, devaluation of Ukrainian national currency in different periods had different effects. The price for natural gas restrained the metallurgical output throughout the entire study period.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123981041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.116
Vugar Namazov
The main objective of the research is to examine key aspects of the structured trade financing instruments and to analyze prerequisites for its existence. Hereby, the main focus is concentrated around developing economies. The research was carried out based on research methods such as comparative analysis, empirical approaches and logical generalization. Also, for the research purposes the current market situation, infrastructure, opinions and recommendations of international organizations were analyzed, and an optimal model and market conditions were generated. As a result of research an importance of the derivative financial instruments, organization of spot markets and warehouse receipt systems were investigated. The main factor limiting the study is a variable statistical need and mathematical modeling based on the economic specifications of each economy. As each market will need more country-oriented research and solution rather than general model that suits all. The practical significance of the research is to ensure synergies between financial and commodity markets and to develop a sustainable risk management tool, enhance access to capital by introducing an alternative financial instrument and market environment for local producers, including small and medium size entrepreneurs.
{"title":"Structured financial producs trading and it's implementation perspectives in emerging economies","authors":"Vugar Namazov","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.116","url":null,"abstract":"The main objective of the research is to examine key aspects of the structured trade financing instruments and to analyze prerequisites for its existence. Hereby, the main focus is concentrated around developing economies. The research was carried out based on research methods such as comparative analysis, empirical approaches and logical generalization. Also, for the research purposes the current market situation, infrastructure, opinions and recommendations of international organizations were analyzed, and an optimal model and market conditions were generated. As a result of research an importance of the derivative financial instruments, organization of spot markets and warehouse receipt systems were investigated. The main factor limiting the study is a variable statistical need and mathematical modeling based on the economic specifications of each economy. As each market will need more country-oriented research and solution rather than general model that suits all. The practical significance of the research is to ensure synergies between financial and commodity markets and to develop a sustainable risk management tool, enhance access to capital by introducing an alternative financial instrument and market environment for local producers, including small and medium size entrepreneurs.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114333084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.097
Yuliia Shapoval
An overview of the definitions of central bank digital currency (CBDC), formulated by researchers of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Bank of England, is presented, and the essence of the CBDC is revealed. It is stated that the existing electronic money is a digital form of obligations of financial intermediaries, and CBDC is a form of emission and obligations of central banks. The types and forms of CBDC are generalized, namely: retail or wholesale, account-based or token-based ones. The structure and functionality of the register, payment authentication, access to infrastructure, and governance are defined as factors taken into account during CBDC designing. Similar models of launching national CBDC by the Bank of England (economy-wide access or financial institutions access, and financial institutions plus CBDC backed narrow bank access) and BIS (direct, indirect, hybrid) are under consideration. The synthetic CBDCs are marked as a theoretical concept of CBDC. The overview of projects of the People's Bank of China – "e-renminbi", the Central Bank of the Uruguay – "e-peso", the Central Bank of the Bahamas – "sand dollar" and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank affirm the interest of developing countries in launching national retail CBDCs. It was found that apart from the Riksbank with the successful "e-krona" project, most of the monetary authorities of developed countries (BIS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank, FRS) are just planning or starting to experiment with the issuance of digital securities, which demonstrates their concern about the restructuring of the banking system and the changes of global role of traditional currencies. Among the positive consequences of the introduction of CBDC for the domestic banking system are the emergence of an alternative payment instrument, the implementation of effective monetary policy through increased influence on interest rates, and regulation of the legal regime of crypto currencies. At the same time, the introduction of CBDC involves certain changes in financial intermediation (replacement of the deposits of commercial banks with the CBDC, the performance of functions inherent to commercial banks by the central bank or fintech companies), and will require powerful technical capabilities, including those related to protection from cyber risks. The results of the study point to the need for a cautious approach to the implementation of the Ukrainian CBDC only after the NBU assesses the public demand for new forms of money and the impact of the launch of CBDC models on price and financial stability, and compares available payment technologies that can achieve the same goals as the CBDC.
{"title":"Central bank digital currencies: experience of pilot projects and conclusions for the NBU","authors":"Yuliia Shapoval","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.097","url":null,"abstract":"An overview of the definitions of central bank digital currency (CBDC), formulated by researchers of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Bank of England, is presented, and the essence of the CBDC is revealed. It is stated that the existing electronic money is a digital form of obligations of financial intermediaries, and CBDC is a form of emission and obligations of central banks. The types and forms of CBDC are generalized, namely: retail or wholesale, account-based or token-based ones. The structure and functionality of the register, payment authentication, access to infrastructure, and governance are defined as factors taken into account during CBDC designing. Similar models of launching national CBDC by the Bank of England (economy-wide access or financial institutions access, and financial institutions plus CBDC backed narrow bank access) and BIS (direct, indirect, hybrid) are under consideration. The synthetic CBDCs are marked as a theoretical concept of CBDC. The overview of projects of the People's Bank of China – \"e-renminbi\", the Central Bank of the Uruguay – \"e-peso\", the Central Bank of the Bahamas – \"sand dollar\" and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank affirm the interest of developing countries in launching national retail CBDCs. It was found that apart from the Riksbank with the successful \"e-krona\" project, most of the monetary authorities of developed countries (BIS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank, FRS) are just planning or starting to experiment with the issuance of digital securities, which demonstrates their concern about the restructuring of the banking system and the changes of global role of traditional currencies. Among the positive consequences of the introduction of CBDC for the domestic banking system are the emergence of an alternative payment instrument, the implementation of effective monetary policy through increased influence on interest rates, and regulation of the legal regime of crypto currencies. At the same time, the introduction of CBDC involves certain changes in financial intermediation (replacement of the deposits of commercial banks with the CBDC, the performance of functions inherent to commercial banks by the central bank or fintech companies), and will require powerful technical capabilities, including those related to protection from cyber risks. The results of the study point to the need for a cautious approach to the implementation of the Ukrainian CBDC only after the NBU assesses the public demand for new forms of money and the impact of the launch of CBDC models on price and financial stability, and compares available payment technologies that can achieve the same goals as the CBDC.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125675244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.005
O. Salikhova, D. Honcharenko
The article substantiates various theoretical and applied principles of developing high-tech pharmaceutical industries (HTPI). It is established that the key problem of developing countries in this area is the dependence on resources and markets of developed countries, while the involvement of advanced foreign technologies can be a catalyst for increasing the technological potential of host countries (subject to the availability of proper knowledge and human capital, changes in the institutional environment, and improved the framework conditions for innovation). In the context of the development of HTPI, the author shows the importance of the network nature of the acquisition by pharmaceutical companies of sustainable competitive advantages based on resources that are difficult to simulate or replace. It is substantiated that networks built with local research institutions, higher education institutions, and research units of other companies, give pharmaceutical manufacturers the opportunity to access complementary assets and become their specific resource, which provides unique competitive advantages. The author reveals various methodological and statistical features of the categorization of industries by the level of technology in the conditions of globalization. It is substantiated that the current low value of the ratio of research and development (R&D) to value-added generated by pharmaceuticals of individual countries is not a sign of the industry’s low technological level, as the current revenues are the result of long-term R&D and harmonization procedures for launching new drugs with lags of 10-15 years. A new tool for the study of international trade in high-tech pharmaceuticals is proposed, whose peculiar feature consists in the categorization of nomenclature items by end use; the List of high-tech medical and pharmaceutical intermediate goods is formulated (in accordance with SITC Rev.4 and UKT FEA); the following indicators are proposed: the coefficient of import dependence of pharmaceutical production, the coefficient of "purified" exports of pharmaceutical products and the coefficient of imports coverage with HTPI output, and the formulas for their calculation are provided. The author's approach is the first to create the opportunity to assess the scale of costs and the dependence of the pharmaceutical industry on imported components that embody advanced technologies and are the industrial supplies for HTPI. It was found that in Ukraine the share of foreign intermediate high-tech goods in the consumption of the industry reaches 82.2%; the industry, working on imported substances, produces mainly products for the domestic market, without earning foreign currency, even to cover the cost of purchasing the necessary ingredients; manufacturers do not rely on synthesized chemical products of domestic production, primarily due to the fact that the products of the chemical industry for the needs of pharmaceuticals in Ukraine are virtually n
{"title":"Ukraine's pharmaceuticals: from dependence to endogenous development","authors":"O. Salikhova, D. Honcharenko","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.04.005","url":null,"abstract":"The article substantiates various theoretical and applied principles of developing high-tech pharmaceutical industries (HTPI). It is established that the key problem of developing countries in this area is the dependence on resources and markets of developed countries, while the involvement of advanced foreign technologies can be a catalyst for increasing the technological potential of host countries (subject to the availability of proper knowledge and human capital, changes in the institutional environment, and improved the framework conditions for innovation). In the context of the development of HTPI, the author shows the importance of the network nature of the acquisition by pharmaceutical companies of sustainable competitive advantages based on resources that are difficult to simulate or replace. It is substantiated that networks built with local research institutions, higher education institutions, and research units of other companies, give pharmaceutical manufacturers the opportunity to access complementary assets and become their specific resource, which provides unique competitive advantages. The author reveals various methodological and statistical features of the categorization of industries by the level of technology in the conditions of globalization. It is substantiated that the current low value of the ratio of research and development (R&D) to value-added generated by pharmaceuticals of individual countries is not a sign of the industry’s low technological level, as the current revenues are the result of long-term R&D and harmonization procedures for launching new drugs with lags of 10-15 years. A new tool for the study of international trade in high-tech pharmaceuticals is proposed, whose peculiar feature consists in the categorization of nomenclature items by end use; the List of high-tech medical and pharmaceutical intermediate goods is formulated (in accordance with SITC Rev.4 and UKT FEA); the following indicators are proposed: the coefficient of import dependence of pharmaceutical production, the coefficient of \"purified\" exports of pharmaceutical products and the coefficient of imports coverage with HTPI output, and the formulas for their calculation are provided. The author's approach is the first to create the opportunity to assess the scale of costs and the dependence of the pharmaceutical industry on imported components that embody advanced technologies and are the industrial supplies for HTPI. It was found that in Ukraine the share of foreign intermediate high-tech goods in the consumption of the industry reaches 82.2%; the industry, working on imported substances, produces mainly products for the domestic market, without earning foreign currency, even to cover the cost of purchasing the necessary ingredients; manufacturers do not rely on synthesized chemical products of domestic production, primarily due to the fact that the products of the chemical industry for the needs of pharmaceuticals in Ukraine are virtually n","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129052368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-29DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.020
V. Harkavenko, G. Yershova
Examining the transformation of financial relations in Ukraine, in the previous article the authors analyzed the impact of foreign capital on the economic development of this country's economy and found that its concentration in certain economic activities contributed to consolidating its raw material orientation. The authors conclude that due to the distorted model of Ukraine's economic development, successful practices of developed countries to attract foreign investment and reform the financial sector are ineffective in this country's economy. Continuing the study of the transformations of financial relations in Ukraine, which are taking place under the influence of the approximation of domestic legislation to European standards, the authors could not leave aside the question of impact of the liberalization of currency legislation on the economy. Given that currency liberalization significantly affects the behavior of foreign investors, the authors conducted an in-depth analysis of legislative changes in the financial sector, and described the main results of their implementation. The positive and negative consequences of currency liberalization in Ukraine for business entities and the economy in general are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the risks associated with the liberalization of operations related to the movement of capital and the behavior of non-residents in the financial market of Ukraine. It is concluded that Ukraine's economy with its distorted development model belongs to the financially and institutionally weak ones, hence is not presently ready to liberalize its monetary relations, which could only deepen the deformations and reduce resilience to macroeconomic imbalances.
{"title":"The impact of currency liberalization on the economy of Ukraine","authors":"V. Harkavenko, G. Yershova","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.020","url":null,"abstract":"Examining the transformation of financial relations in Ukraine, in the previous article the authors analyzed the impact of foreign capital on the economic development of this country's economy and found that its concentration in certain economic activities contributed to consolidating its raw material orientation. The authors conclude that due to the distorted model of Ukraine's economic development, successful practices of developed countries to attract foreign investment and reform the financial sector are ineffective in this country's economy. Continuing the study of the transformations of financial relations in Ukraine, which are taking place under the influence of the approximation of domestic legislation to European standards, the authors could not leave aside the question of impact of the liberalization of currency legislation on the economy. Given that currency liberalization significantly affects the behavior of foreign investors, the authors conducted an in-depth analysis of legislative changes in the financial sector, and described the main results of their implementation. The positive and negative consequences of currency liberalization in Ukraine for business entities and the economy in general are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the risks associated with the liberalization of operations related to the movement of capital and the behavior of non-residents in the financial market of Ukraine. It is concluded that Ukraine's economy with its distorted development model belongs to the financially and institutionally weak ones, hence is not presently ready to liberalize its monetary relations, which could only deepen the deformations and reduce resilience to macroeconomic imbalances.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127364696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-12DOI: 10.15407/econforecast2020.02.072
N. Nazukova
The main approaches to the analysis of the impact of education on economic growth consist in assessing the link between economic growth indicators (GDP/GDP growth per capita) and three groups of educational indicators: quantitative ones (educational attainment – coverage of population by an education level), qualitative ones (standardized grades of students) and the amounts of educational funding. At the same time, educational attainment and the quality of knowledge obtained depend on the amount of educational funding. The article proves that there is a significant positive relationship between indicators of state funding of higher and secondary education per student and a country's total factor productivity. At the same time, there is no unified optimal scheme for the distribution of public funding between the educational levels: to accelerate the pace of economic growth, some countries prioritize primary education, others – secondary or higher education. As stated in the article, this depends on the country's technological level, the existing educational and professional structure of human capital, and such contextual factors, as the quality of institutions in the country. The article discusses practical approaches to financing various levels of education at the expense of public and private funds, where the latter are presented in the context of private funds, and state transfers to families with students – that is public-to-private transfers. The article concludes that public educational funding – both direct and in the form of public-to-private transfers – concidered at various levels, indicates prioritization of the specific educational and professional composition of human capital. The results of the study indicate the need to harmonize approaches to budgetary processes in the field of educational funding with a country's technological, qualificational, and institutional prerequisites, as well as with strategic forecasts of the socio-economic development of national economies.
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Employment of the working age population in various spheres of socially useful activity is an important area of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus and a priority area of state regulation. As one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, employment combines social and economic indicators of the economic situation of society. The article presents the results of a study of employment of labor resources trends in agricultural sector of Belarus, an assessment of its current and forecast of future structural parameters. Along with this, the factors that determine these changes have been identified. It is concluded that the solution to the problem of increasing the efficiency and growth of the competitiveness of agricultural production largely depends on the extent to which the agricultural sector is provided with highly qualified and professionally competent workers who are able to master and implement scientific, technological and organizational, and economic innovations in production processes. Conceptual directions of effective management of the employment of labor resources in agro-industrial complex have been developed, taking into account the identified factors (demographic, organizational, technological, and socio-economic ones), and the scope and range of their influence. Suggestions and recommendations can be used to substantiate a new strategy for rural development, which is based on program activities aimed at perspective development of agricultural economy, and strengthening the efficiency of the functioning of agricultural production.
{"title":"Employment of labor resources in Belarus agriculture: structural-dynamic parameters, forecast trends","authors":"O. Pashkevich","doi":"10.15407/eip2020.03.097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.097","url":null,"abstract":"Employment of the working age population in various spheres of socially useful activity is an important area of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus and a priority area of state regulation. As one of the most important macroeconomic indicators, employment combines social and economic indicators of the economic situation of society. The article presents the results of a study of employment of labor resources trends in agricultural sector of Belarus, an assessment of its current and forecast of future structural parameters. Along with this, the factors that determine these changes have been identified. It is concluded that the solution to the problem of increasing the efficiency and growth of the competitiveness of agricultural production largely depends on the extent to which the agricultural sector is provided with highly qualified and professionally competent workers who are able to master and implement scientific, technological and organizational, and economic innovations in production processes. Conceptual directions of effective management of the employment of labor resources in agro-industrial complex have been developed, taking into account the identified factors (demographic, organizational, technological, and socio-economic ones), and the scope and range of their influence. Suggestions and recommendations can be used to substantiate a new strategy for rural development, which is based on program activities aimed at perspective development of agricultural economy, and strengthening the efficiency of the functioning of agricultural production.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128399428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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