Paper focuses on the present condition of the biofuels market in Ukraine, Ukraine's international obligations regarding energy consumption from renewables by 2020 and possibilities to achieve the set goal. Theoretically, reaching the set goal is possible, but in practice the goal of 10% renewables in the transport sector by 2020 will probably be unachievable. The structure of energy consumption in 2020 is expected to be significantly different from that presumed by the National Action Plan on Renewables until 2020, and less biofuels would be needed to achieve the goal of 10% renewables in transport sector by 2020 than it is set out by the mentioned Action Plan. While maintaining the structure of fuel consumption by road subsector of 2015, in order to provide 10% of energy from renewables in the automotive sub-sector, about 164 thousand toe bioethanol and 256 thousand tons toe of biodiesel are needed. The abolishment of the mandatory blending of 5% of biofuels was inappropriate, as without this requirement market growth ceased. The measures to enhance biofuels market include reducing the excise duty rate for bioethanol compared with a rate of excise duty on petrol; adopting sustainability criteria of biofuels; expansion of types of biofuels; information campaigns to popularize biofuels; reducing the cost of parking for cars, marked for the use of large volumes of biofuels in municipal parking lots; permit for vehicles marked for the use of large amounts of biofuel to use the lanes for public transport; encouraging the market to sell biofuels with high content of biological components; providing financial preferences for sellers of petroleum products in order to create the infrastructure for blending of biological component of fuel. The article was prepared within the research project on "Economic policy of the development of integrated energy markets of Ukraine".
{"title":"The biofuels market in Ukraine","authors":"G. Trypolska, R. Podolets","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.075","url":null,"abstract":"Paper focuses on the present condition of the biofuels market in Ukraine, Ukraine's international obligations regarding energy consumption from renewables by 2020 and possibilities to achieve the set goal. Theoretically, reaching the set goal is possible, but in practice the goal of 10% renewables in the transport sector by 2020 will probably be unachievable. The structure of energy consumption in 2020 is expected to be significantly different from that presumed by the National Action Plan on Renewables until 2020, and less biofuels would be needed to achieve the goal of 10% renewables in transport sector by 2020 than it is set out by the mentioned Action Plan. While maintaining the structure of fuel consumption by road subsector of 2015, in order to provide 10% of energy from renewables in the automotive sub-sector, about 164 thousand toe bioethanol and 256 thousand tons toe of biodiesel are needed. The abolishment of the mandatory blending of 5% of biofuels was inappropriate, as without this requirement market growth ceased. The measures to enhance biofuels market include reducing the excise duty rate for bioethanol compared with a rate of excise duty on petrol; adopting sustainability criteria of biofuels; expansion of types of biofuels; information campaigns to popularize biofuels; reducing the cost of parking for cars, marked for the use of large volumes of biofuels in municipal parking lots; permit for vehicles marked for the use of large amounts of biofuel to use the lanes for public transport; encouraging the market to sell biofuels with high content of biological components; providing financial preferences for sellers of petroleum products in order to create the infrastructure for blending of biological component of fuel. The article was prepared within the research project on \"Economic policy of the development of integrated energy markets of Ukraine\".","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124497417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article deals with the experience of post-socialist EU countries, in particular, Bulgaria, as to the accomplishment of minimal requirements to the level of excise taxation of cigarettes within the general process of tax harmonization. The authors consider consequences of this policy in the context of its impact on the cigarette market, achievement of health goals and provision of the planned level of budget revenues. Analyzed the contradictions harmonization of the excise tax on cigarettes in EU, which take the form of the change of its target reference points, i.e. complementing the indicator of minimum level of the overall excise rate on cigarettes with minimal requirements to the size of excise yield, which is recognized as the most effective mechanism for reducing price differentiation among EU countries. The authors define features of the excise policy in Ukraine, which is characterized by high rates of increase of the specific excise and a minimum excise duty on cigarettes. There are arguments in favor of the assumption that this trend did not lead to price shock only because the cigarette manufacturers, competing for the market, tried to keep low prices for their products. It is concluded that, in Ukraine, the continuation of the aggressive policy of raising excise rates for cigarettes, especially in a combination with the establishment by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of minimum wholesale and retail prices for them, sooner or later can lead to a price increase and, on this basis, to the expansion of the shadow cigarette market. The authors justify the necessity of compliance by the Ukrainian government of such principles of efficient excise policy as gradual increase of excise tax rates, development and implementation of a stage-by-stage plan of harmonization of the tax burden on tobacco products, considering, in the process at setting tax rates on cigarettes, such factors as the risk of smuggling, purchasing power of local consumers, tax rates in neighboring countries, and the ability and effectiveness of the tax authority to enforce compliance with the tax legislation. The article was prepared within the research project on "Improving the tax system with the decentralization of state power" (No of state registration 0115U000938).
{"title":"Harmonization of excise tax on tobacco products","authors":"A. Sokolovska, L. Rainova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.093","url":null,"abstract":"The article deals with the experience of post-socialist EU countries, in particular, Bulgaria, as to the accomplishment of minimal requirements to the level of excise taxation of cigarettes within the general process of tax harmonization. The authors consider consequences of this policy in the context of its impact on the cigarette market, achievement of health goals and provision of the planned level of budget revenues. Analyzed the contradictions harmonization of the excise tax on cigarettes in EU, which take the form of the change of its target reference points, i.e. complementing the indicator of minimum level of the overall excise rate on cigarettes with minimal requirements to the size of excise yield, which is recognized as the most effective mechanism for reducing price differentiation among EU countries. The authors define features of the excise policy in Ukraine, which is characterized by high rates of increase of the specific excise and a minimum excise duty on cigarettes. There are arguments in favor of the assumption that this trend did not lead to price shock only because the cigarette manufacturers, competing for the market, tried to keep low prices for their products. It is concluded that, in Ukraine, the continuation of the aggressive policy of raising excise rates for cigarettes, especially in a combination with the establishment by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine of minimum wholesale and retail prices for them, sooner or later can lead to a price increase and, on this basis, to the expansion of the shadow cigarette market. The authors justify the necessity of compliance by the Ukrainian government of such principles of efficient excise policy as gradual increase of excise tax rates, development and implementation of a stage-by-stage plan of harmonization of the tax burden on tobacco products, considering, in the process at setting tax rates on cigarettes, such factors as the risk of smuggling, purchasing power of local consumers, tax rates in neighboring countries, and the ability and effectiveness of the tax authority to enforce compliance with the tax legislation. The article was prepared within the research project on \"Improving the tax system with the decentralization of state power\" (No of state registration 0115U000938).","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126720513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite the prevalence of localization measures in the practice of countries with different levels of development, localization requirements in Ukraine are still rare. Meanwhile, the dependence of Ukrainian economy on imports increases and acquires threatening dimensions. The expansion of imports begets weakening of country's economic stability, nourishes the structural crisis, impedes the development of industry, and causes a situation where imports suppress production instead of complementing it. These problems represent the focus of the present study, which deals with theoretical and practical aspects of production localization. The study aims at determining the essence and forms of the requirements for localization, generalizing the world experience in applying such requirements with identifying their effectiveness, analyzing the specificity of such requirements in individual sectors of economy, and substantiating the economic necessity of their use in Ukraine. The estimation of the import dependence of Ukrainian economy and, in particular, its industrial sector, based on data of the input-output tables allows detecting an excessive level of import dependence of Ukrainian economy and industry. It is proved that the proportions in which imports are involved in the economic processes are extraordinary, and hence a corresponding regulation with the application of systemic measures for production localization is required. The author identifies the areas of desirable application of the localization requirements for those industries that are critically dependent on imports by intermediate consumption, final consumption and gross capital formation, as well as various promising types of production with a solid scientific and innovation base.
{"title":"Localization of production – a world practice and conclusions for Ukraine","authors":"I. Shovkun","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.031","url":null,"abstract":"Despite the prevalence of localization measures in the practice of countries with different levels of development, localization requirements in Ukraine are still rare. Meanwhile, the dependence of Ukrainian economy on imports increases and acquires threatening dimensions. The expansion of imports begets weakening of country's economic stability, nourishes the structural crisis, impedes the development of industry, and causes a situation where imports suppress production instead of complementing it. These problems represent the focus of the present study, which deals with theoretical and practical aspects of production localization. The study aims at determining the essence and forms of the requirements for localization, generalizing the world experience in applying such requirements with identifying their effectiveness, analyzing the specificity of such requirements in individual sectors of economy, and substantiating the economic necessity of their use in Ukraine. The estimation of the import dependence of Ukrainian economy and, in particular, its industrial sector, based on data of the input-output tables allows detecting an excessive level of import dependence of Ukrainian economy and industry. It is proved that the proportions in which imports are involved in the economic processes are extraordinary, and hence a corresponding regulation with the application of systemic measures for production localization is required. The author identifies the areas of desirable application of the localization requirements for those industries that are critically dependent on imports by intermediate consumption, final consumption and gross capital formation, as well as various promising types of production with a solid scientific and innovation base.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127821415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article presents the results of a monitoring of the key parameters of the institutional sectors in Ukraine's economy, united by the author in a macrostructural institutional scoreboard (MIS). The monitoring starts with fixing the changes: in the deficit/surplus of each of the institutional sectors, in external debt for each sector and economy as a whole, sectoral distribution of gross disposable income, gross savings and gross fixed capital accumulation, which allows assessing the fundamental structural changes at the level of economic sectors and the safety of GDI levels of each of them, taking into account the basic preconditions for GDP growth. In addition, the scoretable represents indicators of the GDI components for each institutional sector that reveal the factors behind the increase/decrease of the share of sectors' GDI in total GDI, which allows determining the political factor that has caused the corresponding macro-structural changes and assessing the nature of their impact. The monitoring also uses important indicators to identify price effects on the reallocation of income between sectors, such as consumer price index, basic consumer price index, some of their components, price terms of trade, lending to institutional sectors, etc. Consequently, it covers both macroeconomic structures, and developments in individual institutional sectors and in the economy as a whole, which can signal the danger of crisis events.
{"title":"A macrostructural institutional scoretable of Ukrainian economy","authors":"I. Kryuchkova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.007","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the results of a monitoring of the key parameters of the institutional sectors in Ukraine's economy, united by the author in a macrostructural institutional scoreboard (MIS). The monitoring starts with fixing the changes: in the deficit/surplus of each of the institutional sectors, in external debt for each sector and economy as a whole, sectoral distribution of gross disposable income, gross savings and gross fixed capital accumulation, which allows assessing the fundamental structural changes at the level of economic sectors and the safety of GDI levels of each of them, taking into account the basic preconditions for GDP growth. In addition, the scoretable represents indicators of the GDI components for each institutional sector that reveal the factors behind the increase/decrease of the share of sectors' GDI in total GDI, which allows determining the political factor that has caused the corresponding macro-structural changes and assessing the nature of their impact. The monitoring also uses important indicators to identify price effects on the reallocation of income between sectors, such as consumer price index, basic consumer price index, some of their components, price terms of trade, lending to institutional sectors, etc. Consequently, it covers both macroeconomic structures, and developments in individual institutional sectors and in the economy as a whole, which can signal the danger of crisis events.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127882544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Ostashko, V. Lir, V. Venger, V. Olefir, O. Bykonia
During 2012-2016, domestic commodity exports declined annually. This trend is dangerous for the national economy, which is characterized by excessive dependence on the external conjuncture. The purpose of the article is to identify external and internal reasons of the reduction of commodity exports and to suggest ways and means to overcome this negative trend. The article focuses on the main export markets and the basic and traditional commodity groups of domestic exports. Based on the analysis of domestic and international statistics, study of foreign trade agreements, domestic and foreign scientific publications on the problems of foreign trade, strategies and development programs of domestic exports and other information materials, the main factors of the deterioration of external and domestic market conditions have been identified, and ways and methods of overcoming those negative tendencies have been systematized and generalized. Among the results that have elements of scientific novelty, one can mention the following: 1) identification of certain endogenous factors that hold back the growth and diversification of Ukrainian exports (institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies; the limited character of existing trade agreements (if any) between Ukraine and countries with a high potential for encouraging Ukraine's exports); a comprehensive analysis of the current condition of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan; an in-depth analysis of the global and domestic market conditions for metallurgical products. An example of institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies to enhance exports is the activities of the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU). In 2012, the SFGCU and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed on the provision of a loan of $ 3 billion to the Ukrainian corporation under state guarantees. Half of the loan was intended for the purchase of grain (mainly maize) for further export to the People's Republic of China through the mediation of the Chinese National Machine Industry and General Contract Corporation. The second half of the loan was intended for the purchase of Chinese agricultural machinery and material resources for with subsequent delivery to Ukraine. With lowering world prices for maize in 2014, the SFGCU actually refused to comply with several provisions of the contract, after which the Chinese party filed a lawsuit against Ukraine to the London International Arbitral Tribunal for damages of $ 3 billion. At the same time, a partial resumption of Ukraine's export of maize to China is possible subject to the solution of certain Ukraine's domestic institutional problems - from those that lie within the control of government institutions involved in contractual relations with the Chinese party, to the development of the system of phytosanitary control in Ukraine. A unique situation has arisen in trade between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to ensure its econo
2012-2016年，国内大宗商品出口逐年下降。这种趋势对过度依赖外部环境的国民经济来说是危险的。本文的目的是找出商品出口减少的外部和内部原因，并提出克服这种消极趋势的方法和手段。文章重点分析了主要出口市场以及国内出口的基本和传统商品类别。通过对国内外统计数据的分析、对外贸易协定的研究、国内外关于外贸问题的科学出版物、国内出口战略和发展规划等信息资料的研究，确定了国内外市场状况恶化的主要因素，并对克服这些不利趋势的途径和方法进行了系统的归纳和总结。在具有科学新颖性的结果中，可以提到以下内容:1)确定了阻碍乌克兰出口增长和多样化的某些内生因素(国有公司的制度性无能;乌克兰与鼓励乌克兰出口的高潜力国家之间现有贸易协定(如果有的话)的有限性;对中国、土耳其、哈萨克斯坦对外贸易现状的综合分析;深入分析国内外冶金产品市场状况。国有公司在体制上无力增加出口的一个例子是乌克兰国家粮食和谷物公司的活动。2012年，SFGCU和中国进出口银行(Export-Import Bank of China)同意在国家担保下向这家乌克兰公司提供30亿美元贷款。贷款的一半用于购买谷物(主要是玉米)，以便通过中国机械工业和总承包公司的调解进一步出口到中华人民共和国。贷款的另一半用于购买中国农业机械和物资资源，随后交付给乌克兰。随着2014年世界玉米价格的下降，SFGCU实际上拒绝遵守合同的一些条款，之后中方向伦敦国际仲裁法庭提起诉讼，要求乌克兰赔偿30亿美元。与此同时，乌克兰部分恢复对中国的玉米出口是可能的，但前提是乌克兰的某些国内体制问题得到解决，这些问题包括与中方有合同关系的政府机构所控制的问题，以及乌克兰植物检疫控制系统的发展。乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦之间的贸易出现了一种独特的情况。为了确保其经济安全和国家利益，俄罗斯联邦从2016年1月起大大简化了乌克兰货物向哈萨克斯坦的过境，自2016年7月起，它甚至暂时禁止乌克兰货物通过其领土过境，这些货物需要缴纳不同税率的进口关税，以及根据俄罗斯联邦政府2014年7月8日第778号法令实施进口禁运的货物。实际上，过境禁令涉及90%的乌克兰对哈萨克斯坦的出口。受影响最大的是机械制造和冶金产品出口商，它们的交货量分别减少了3倍和5倍。为了恢复对哈萨克斯坦的出口，最好是利用世贸组织的机制和程序，解除对乌克兰货物通过俄罗斯联邦领土过境的禁令，并加强建立绕过俄罗斯联邦领土的运输走廊的活动，以便向哈萨克斯坦和中亚国家运送货物，特别是利用TRACECA走廊。为了扩大冶金产品的出口，有必要采取以下措施:通过提高电炉和转炉的钢铁产量来提高产品质量，并建立小型和微型工厂，使其能够迅速灵活地应对金属产品市场的波动;采用新技术、新设备，提高宽带热轧机热轧薄板产量;并扩大了金属轧制的范围，特别是增加了带保护涂层的冷轧薄板的生产。 对世界冶金产品市场的分析表明:发展高质量变压器和汽车用薄板钢生产的必要性;引进高新技术，扩大内外覆盖的油气管道生产;在高性能连续轧机上增加用连铸坯生产高质量管材，组织生产具有更高耐腐蚀性能的新牌号的钢材，用于石油开采和运输。执行这些措施和该条所说明的其他措施将有助于克服国内商品出口减少的消极趋势。
{"title":"A change in the traditional items of Ukraine's export","authors":"T. Ostashko, V. Lir, V. Venger, V. Olefir, O. Bykonia","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.057","url":null,"abstract":"During 2012-2016, domestic commodity exports declined annually. This trend is dangerous for the national economy, which is characterized by excessive dependence on the external conjuncture. The purpose of the article is to identify external and internal reasons of the reduction of commodity exports and to suggest ways and means to overcome this negative trend. The article focuses on the main export markets and the basic and traditional commodity groups of domestic exports. Based on the analysis of domestic and international statistics, study of foreign trade agreements, domestic and foreign scientific publications on the problems of foreign trade, strategies and development programs of domestic exports and other information materials, the main factors of the deterioration of external and domestic market conditions have been identified, and ways and methods of overcoming those negative tendencies have been systematized and generalized. Among the results that have elements of scientific novelty, one can mention the following: 1) identification of certain endogenous factors that hold back the growth and diversification of Ukrainian exports (institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies; the limited character of existing trade agreements (if any) between Ukraine and countries with a high potential for encouraging Ukraine's exports); a comprehensive analysis of the current condition of foreign trade with the People's Republic of China, Turkey and Kazakhstan; an in-depth analysis of the global and domestic market conditions for metallurgical products. An example of institutional incapacity of the state-owned companies to enhance exports is the activities of the State Food and Grain Corporation of Ukraine (SFGCU). In 2012, the SFGCU and the Export-Import Bank of China agreed on the provision of a loan of $ 3 billion to the Ukrainian corporation under state guarantees. Half of the loan was intended for the purchase of grain (mainly maize) for further export to the People's Republic of China through the mediation of the Chinese National Machine Industry and General Contract Corporation. The second half of the loan was intended for the purchase of Chinese agricultural machinery and material resources for with subsequent delivery to Ukraine. With lowering world prices for maize in 2014, the SFGCU actually refused to comply with several provisions of the contract, after which the Chinese party filed a lawsuit against Ukraine to the London International Arbitral Tribunal for damages of $ 3 billion. At the same time, a partial resumption of Ukraine's export of maize to China is possible subject to the solution of certain Ukraine's domestic institutional problems - from those that lie within the control of government institutions involved in contractual relations with the Chinese party, to the development of the system of phytosanitary control in Ukraine. A unique situation has arisen in trade between Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to ensure its econo","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115958492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the effect of the monetary transmission mechanism in the cross-sectoral context. The transmission mechanism from refinancing rate, liquidity and hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to sectoral lending and economic activity was studied using a structural VAR-model. A significant heterogeneity in the response of sectoral indicators was found, which should be taken into account by the National Bank of Ukraine when setting up monetary policy. In particular, the transmission to consumer lending rates differs from the transmission to corporate and interbank lending rates, as well as government lending rates. Consumer credit rates are reduced due to rising liquidity and do not react to refinancing rates. An unexpected decrease in such rates after the devaluation was evidently due to partial realization of the currency risk. The volumes of lending to the population depend only on the hryvnia to the dollar exchange rate. That is, the National Bank has virtually no direct influence on consumer lending. In addition, the change in interest rate channel from the beginning of 2015 was studied using a panel VAR-model. A positive change in monetary transmission during this period was the emergence of an effective interest rate channel, and hence effective transmission of the NBU refinancing rate to the short-term rates on loans in national currency. The pass-through of the weighted average rate on the NBU refinancing operations to short-term bank lending rates is about 30-40% (that is, such rates increase by 0.3-0.4 percentage points in response to 1 percentage point increase in the refinancing rate).
{"title":"The heterogeneous impact of monetary levers on the indicators of lending and economic activity","authors":"O. Petryk, I. Deysan","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.02.129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.02.129","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of the monetary transmission mechanism in the cross-sectoral context. The transmission mechanism from refinancing rate, liquidity and hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar to sectoral lending and economic activity was studied using a structural VAR-model. A significant heterogeneity in the response of sectoral indicators was found, which should be taken into account by the National Bank of Ukraine when setting up monetary policy. In particular, the transmission to consumer lending rates differs from the transmission to corporate and interbank lending rates, as well as government lending rates. Consumer credit rates are reduced due to rising liquidity and do not react to refinancing rates. An unexpected decrease in such rates after the devaluation was evidently due to partial realization of the currency risk. The volumes of lending to the population depend only on the hryvnia to the dollar exchange rate. That is, the National Bank has virtually no direct influence on consumer lending. In addition, the change in interest rate channel from the beginning of 2015 was studied using a panel VAR-model. A positive change in monetary transmission during this period was the emergence of an effective interest rate channel, and hence effective transmission of the NBU refinancing rate to the short-term rates on loans in national currency. The pass-through of the weighted average rate on the NBU refinancing operations to short-term bank lending rates is about 30-40% (that is, such rates increase by 0.3-0.4 percentage points in response to 1 percentage point increase in the refinancing rate).","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116956849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
One of the areas of improvement of state agrarian policy in Ukraine is increasing support for small farms. However, there is still no common position on the division of agricultural producers by economic size. For identifying it, it seems appropriate to take into account the practice of the European Union, where the typology of farms uses the indicator of economic size. It is based on the economic parameter of Standard Output (SO) and describes the possible value of production that the producer is able to get, with the available productive capacity and conducting business in a particular region. The economic size of farms is determined based on their acreage and number of animals using regional SO ratios, which are calculated in the EU by relevant authorities. The farms are classified by economic size in 14 classes ranging from "less than 2 thousand Euros" to "more than 3 mln Euros." Within the system, there are groups of small, medium and large farms. Ukraine needs to adopt the European approach to assessing the size of the farms, in which the group of small sized farms would include individual farms (households), peasant family farms and small sized economically independent farms. It is necessary to immediately start to build a national system of determination of farm size in terms of the economic parameter of Standard Output. During the transition period, it is expedient to temporarily assess the economic value of farms using an indicator as close as possible to the SO.
{"title":"Identification of small agricultural producers: European experience for Ukraine","authors":"I. Prokopa, I. Demchak","doi":"10.15407/eip2017.01.058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2017.01.058","url":null,"abstract":"One of the areas of improvement of state agrarian policy in Ukraine is increasing support for small farms. However, there is still no common position on the division of agricultural producers by economic size. For identifying it, it seems appropriate to take into account the practice of the European Union, where the typology of farms uses the indicator of economic size. It is based on the economic parameter of Standard Output (SO) and describes the possible value of production that the producer is able to get, with the available productive capacity and conducting business in a particular region. The economic size of farms is determined based on their acreage and number of animals using regional SO ratios, which are calculated in the EU by relevant authorities. The farms are classified by economic size in 14 classes ranging from \"less than 2 thousand Euros\" to \"more than 3 mln Euros.\" Within the system, there are groups of small, medium and large farms. Ukraine needs to adopt the European approach to assessing the size of the farms, in which the group of small sized farms would include individual farms (households), peasant family farms and small sized economically independent farms. It is necessary to immediately start to build a national system of determination of farm size in terms of the economic parameter of Standard Output. During the transition period, it is expedient to temporarily assess the economic value of farms using an indicator as close as possible to the SO.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"29 4 Suppl 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131689159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article considers the prerequisites of transformation of the national natural gas market and describes the main motivating factors determining the direction of reforms in its sectors. The topicality of implementing the model "entry-exit" on the gas market is examined both in the context of Ukraine's international commitments, and in the context of a series of crisis phenomena that have emerged in the sector of servicing and transportation of natural gas. The change of the market model in the sphere of gas transportation predetermines the principles of tariff formation for the services provided by the GTS operator. This determines the necessity of justification of the components in the system of tariff formation, such as: regulation of projected costs, amortization, regulatory base, regulatory phase of the standard income of transportation operator. The article analyses the experience of adjusting these components in other European countries and provides relevant recommendations for the national market. It is shown that such changes fundamentally transform the national market of natural gas. Transition from "investment plus" to the regulation of standard income means that operator's income on inserted investments, considering the level of expected investment risks, is sufficient for providing updating and development. The change of regulatory phase allows improving the predictability and creating prerequisites for involving new investments for long-term projects. The review of the methodology determining the regulatory base allows establishing a market price for the transport operators' main assets and making fully-fledged amortization deductions. It will give an opportunity to involve additional funds for renewal of the infrastructure and, based on the new price, establish objectively determined level of profitability of the transport operator in accordance with the new rates of spending, which are correctly accounted for and covered by the tariff rate. Determination of a compulsory rate of increasing annual performance creates prerequisites for reducing the costs and final tariff for the consumers. Analyzing the barriers to the implementation of "entry-exit" tariff model in Ukraine, author gives some recommendations for the adaption of transit agreements to the new conditions of the national market, determining trade zones, and removal of the current infrastructural and institutional restrictions, which hinder the model's implementation.
{"title":"On some peculiar features in the introduction of the \"entry-exit\" tariff model on Ukrainian natural gas market","authors":"R. Yukhymets","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.01.128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.01.128","url":null,"abstract":"The article considers the prerequisites of transformation of the national natural gas market and describes the main motivating factors determining the direction of reforms in its sectors. The topicality of implementing the model \"entry-exit\" on the gas market is examined both in the context of Ukraine's international commitments, and in the context of a series of crisis phenomena that have emerged in the sector of servicing and transportation of natural gas. The change of the market model in the sphere of gas transportation predetermines the principles of tariff formation for the services provided by the GTS operator. This determines the necessity of justification of the components in the system of tariff formation, such as: regulation of projected costs, amortization, regulatory base, regulatory phase of the standard income of transportation operator. The article analyses the experience of adjusting these components in other European countries and provides relevant recommendations for the national market. It is shown that such changes fundamentally transform the national market of natural gas. Transition from \"investment plus\" to the regulation of standard income means that operator's income on inserted investments, considering the level of expected investment risks, is sufficient for providing updating and development. The change of regulatory phase allows improving the predictability and creating prerequisites for involving new investments for long-term projects. The review of the methodology determining the regulatory base allows establishing a market price for the transport operators' main assets and making fully-fledged amortization deductions. It will give an opportunity to involve additional funds for renewal of the infrastructure and, based on the new price, establish objectively determined level of profitability of the transport operator in accordance with the new rates of spending, which are correctly accounted for and covered by the tariff rate. Determination of a compulsory rate of increasing annual performance creates prerequisites for reducing the costs and final tariff for the consumers. Analyzing the barriers to the implementation of \"entry-exit\" tariff model in Ukraine, author gives some recommendations for the adaption of transit agreements to the new conditions of the national market, determining trade zones, and removal of the current infrastructural and institutional restrictions, which hinder the model's implementation.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125568248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article tackles the problem of the lack of consistency between the fiscal and monetary levers and relevant instruments of state regulation. The author defines the main factors in the development of Ukraine's real sector, and provides a comparative analysis of financial sources in the EU and Ukraine, which indicates the need to address the problems of investing in Ukraine in order to achieve a long-term growth. The article deals with the problems of financial security of the investment process, implementation of innovative investment projects as well as funding for post-crisis recovery and stabilization in the real economy of Ukraine. The author establishes that the revival of the state participation becomes increasingly important in financing projects of long-term economic development; as well as in stimulating research, development and innovation enterprises, and encouraging institutional investors and shareholders to participate in a long-term investment. Given the financial and economic situation in the real economy, it is determined that the investment problem should be resolved along with the restoration of the companies' financial stability (post-crisis recovery). The author argues that the imbalance in the flow of financial resources is one of the main causes of the recurrence of the crisis. Preconditions of the risks of imbalance in the financial flows are defined as well as the reasons for the lack of financial resources for operational and investment activities. Proposed various indicators to assess the effectiveness of the use of financial resources. Developed a balance sheet based approach to assess the capital outflow from Ukraine's real economy. The author discusses the necessity of reform the levers and tools of financing the real sector based on a mutually ensuring financial cooperation between the state and businesses. There is an overview of the international experience in the financial security of economic development. Various recommendations are provided to improve the public policy of financial security of Ukraine's economy.
{"title":"Financial tools to ensure the development of the national economy","authors":"O. Bilousova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.01.031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.01.031","url":null,"abstract":"The article tackles the problem of the lack of consistency between the fiscal and monetary levers and relevant instruments of state regulation. The author defines the main factors in the development of Ukraine's real sector, and provides a comparative analysis of financial sources in the EU and Ukraine, which indicates the need to address the problems of investing in Ukraine in order to achieve a long-term growth. The article deals with the problems of financial security of the investment process, implementation of innovative investment projects as well as funding for post-crisis recovery and stabilization in the real economy of Ukraine. The author establishes that the revival of the state participation becomes increasingly important in financing projects of long-term economic development; as well as in stimulating research, development and innovation enterprises, and encouraging institutional investors and shareholders to participate in a long-term investment. Given the financial and economic situation in the real economy, it is determined that the investment problem should be resolved along with the restoration of the companies' financial stability (post-crisis recovery). The author argues that the imbalance in the flow of financial resources is one of the main causes of the recurrence of the crisis. Preconditions of the risks of imbalance in the financial flows are defined as well as the reasons for the lack of financial resources for operational and investment activities. Proposed various indicators to assess the effectiveness of the use of financial resources. Developed a balance sheet based approach to assess the capital outflow from Ukraine's real economy. The author discusses the necessity of reform the levers and tools of financing the real sector based on a mutually ensuring financial cooperation between the state and businesses. There is an overview of the international experience in the financial security of economic development. Various recommendations are provided to improve the public policy of financial security of Ukraine's economy.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133029879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article identifies and substantiates the challenges and prospects of agriculture under the climate change. Ukrainian agriculture serves as an important component of global food security, whose further development is dependent on natural resources, the environment and climate change. Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, however, at the same time, it is suffering from the climate change itself. Although Ukraine is not included in the list of the most vulnerable to global warming regions on our planet, if no appropriate urgent action is taken, the climate change will continue to pressure on the agricultural ecosystems. The authors highlight positive (changed terms and conditions of harvesting, increased efficiency of fertilizers, etc.) and negative (deterioration of grain quality, increased frequency of droughts, etc.) effects of the climate change on agriculture; they identify and summarize the main measures to reduce the negative impact of agriculture on climate change and propose various basic adaptation measures that would mitigate the negative impact of the climate change on agriculture. Under the conditions of climate change, an important factor in improving the efficiency of agriculture is a rigorous distribution of arable lands between separate crops with regard to climate change. One of the important measures to improve the crop rotation pattern is including so called "niche" crops that have a significant potential for the diversification of the oilseed-and-grain pattern, which dominates in the crop rotations in southern Ukraine.
{"title":"Ukrainian agriculture: challenges and ways of development under the climate change","authors":"K. Prokopenko, L. Udova","doi":"10.15407/EIP2017.01.092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/EIP2017.01.092","url":null,"abstract":"The article identifies and substantiates the challenges and prospects of agriculture under the climate change. Ukrainian agriculture serves as an important component of global food security, whose further development is dependent on natural resources, the environment and climate change. Agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, however, at the same time, it is suffering from the climate change itself. Although Ukraine is not included in the list of the most vulnerable to global warming regions on our planet, if no appropriate urgent action is taken, the climate change will continue to pressure on the agricultural ecosystems. The authors highlight positive (changed terms and conditions of harvesting, increased efficiency of fertilizers, etc.) and negative (deterioration of grain quality, increased frequency of droughts, etc.) effects of the climate change on agriculture; they identify and summarize the main measures to reduce the negative impact of agriculture on climate change and propose various basic adaptation measures that would mitigate the negative impact of the climate change on agriculture. Under the conditions of climate change, an important factor in improving the efficiency of agriculture is a rigorous distribution of arable lands between separate crops with regard to climate change. One of the important measures to improve the crop rotation pattern is including so called \"niche\" crops that have a significant potential for the diversification of the oilseed-and-grain pattern, which dominates in the crop rotations in southern Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"11 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120808619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：