The author substantiates a toolkit for ensuring the inclusiveness of the labor market. When considering the set of institutional entities, which, in the course of reconciliation of their own interests on the labor market contribute to its development and institutionalization, she proves that violation of their interaction causes a distortion of the institutional structure of labor market, throws the system out of balance and leads to risks and threats to labor application and the socio-economic sphere as a whole. Since there are no reference institutions in their pure form, the contradictory combination of functions, norms and logic determines the functioning of hybrids of inclusive and extractive institutions. Thus, the labor market can be considered as a conglomeration of institutions with a set of inclusive and extractive features. The study found that the systemic problems of the labor market are institutional problems, such as imperfections and inconsistencies in the rules for implementing various components of economic policy (monetary, budgetary, tax, debt, employment ones and others). The scenario of riding out the crisis is also based on the introduction of the following institutional measures: adoption of legislative decisions and norms that shape an institutional field for minimizing the extractive features of the institutional structure and the formation of an inclusive labor market. The author substantiates various guidelines for ensuring the inclusiveness of the labor market development in the form of a theoretical construct, which defines the factors of influence, and specifies the tools and mechanisms for introducing innovative methods of state regulation in the field of employment.
{"title":"Institutional support of the inclusiveness of Ukrainian labor market","authors":"V. Blyzniuk","doi":"10.15407/eip2020.03.056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.056","url":null,"abstract":"The author substantiates a toolkit for ensuring the inclusiveness of the labor market. When considering the set of institutional entities, which, in the course of reconciliation of their own interests on the labor market contribute to its development and institutionalization, she proves that violation of their interaction causes a distortion of the institutional structure of labor market, throws the system out of balance and leads to risks and threats to labor application and the socio-economic sphere as a whole. Since there are no reference institutions in their pure form, the contradictory combination of functions, norms and logic determines the functioning of hybrids of inclusive and extractive institutions. Thus, the labor market can be considered as a conglomeration of institutions with a set of inclusive and extractive features. The study found that the systemic problems of the labor market are institutional problems, such as imperfections and inconsistencies in the rules for implementing various components of economic policy (monetary, budgetary, tax, debt, employment ones and others). The scenario of riding out the crisis is also based on the introduction of the following institutional measures: adoption of legislative decisions and norms that shape an institutional field for minimizing the extractive features of the institutional structure and the formation of an inclusive labor market. The author substantiates various guidelines for ensuring the inclusiveness of the labor market development in the form of a theoretical construct, which defines the factors of influence, and specifies the tools and mechanisms for introducing innovative methods of state regulation in the field of employment.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121717370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-29DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.034
S. Brus
The article defines the concept of fintech as an innovative industry and as a financial product. The processes and possibilities of using innovative technologies, in particular blockchain, artificial intelligence, Big Data, cloud technologies, artificial neural networks, and machine learning technologies for the financial services industry are generalized. The author notes the promise of the application of such innovative technologies for the expansion of crediting, reduction of credit, investment and other risks, personalization of financial offers for the client, trading, money transfers, insurance business, etc. The world investments in fintech in the period from 2013 to 2019 are analyzed. The author points out the increase in total investment and average value of one transaction over the past two years. Analyzed the application of fintech for local markets and in various areas of the financial services industry, in particular investments in InsurTech. The author shows the opportunities of the introduction of fintech in the regional section. It is concluded that the coverage of the population with fintech services is higher in the countries where the market of traditional financial services is less developed. Countries with developed financial markets have a conservative approach and a certain lag in the introduction of financial technologies. At the same time, the author points out a high level of concentration of investments in developed markets. It is concluded that digitalization in the financial and other sectors in Ukraine is promising; in particular, it concerns non-cash payments of insurance companies, remittances and services related to RegTech. Highlighted the priorities for fintech in Ukraine in terms of improving digital literacy, cash economy, and development of fintech ecosystems. The positive and negative effects of the introduction of fintech are considered. It is emphasized that the problems that need to be addressed relate to the risks associated with personal security, privacy, loss of personal data, cybersecurity, job cuts, and various other aspects.
{"title":"Transformation of the financial services industry under the influence of fintech: global and regional dimensions","authors":"S. Brus","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.034","url":null,"abstract":"The article defines the concept of fintech as an innovative industry and as a financial product. The processes and possibilities of using innovative technologies, in particular blockchain, artificial intelligence, Big Data, cloud technologies, artificial neural networks, and machine learning technologies for the financial services industry are generalized. The author notes the promise of the application of such innovative technologies for the expansion of crediting, reduction of credit, investment and other risks, personalization of financial offers for the client, trading, money transfers, insurance business, etc. The world investments in fintech in the period from 2013 to 2019 are analyzed. The author points out the increase in total investment and average value of one transaction over the past two years. Analyzed the application of fintech for local markets and in various areas of the financial services industry, in particular investments in InsurTech. The author shows the opportunities of the introduction of fintech in the regional section. It is concluded that the coverage of the population with fintech services is higher in the countries where the market of traditional financial services is less developed. Countries with developed financial markets have a conservative approach and a certain lag in the introduction of financial technologies. At the same time, the author points out a high level of concentration of investments in developed markets. It is concluded that digitalization in the financial and other sectors in Ukraine is promising; in particular, it concerns non-cash payments of insurance companies, remittances and services related to RegTech. Highlighted the priorities for fintech in Ukraine in terms of improving digital literacy, cash economy, and development of fintech ecosystems. The positive and negative effects of the introduction of fintech are considered. It is emphasized that the problems that need to be addressed relate to the risks associated with personal security, privacy, loss of personal data, cybersecurity, job cuts, and various other aspects.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"216 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121944258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article analyzes the trends of world trade and features of trade policies across the world during the period of economic restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It also analyzes the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade and trade policy measures, which are applied by the government in the pandemic. Based on the identification of challenges and opportunities for the development of this country’s foreign trade during this pandemic and the analysis of forecasts and recommendations of international organizations, the authors substantiate proposals on the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy with an emphasis on the agri-food market A comparison of world trade developments in 2020 and 2021 forecasted by international organizations is made in the article. In the first half of 2020, the world trade development was closer toward the optimistic scenario of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Bank scenario, but the expected second wave of the pandemic may return the world trade trend to the WTO pessimistic scenario, where the world trade could be reduced by 31,9% in 2020. The development of Ukraine's foreign trade also shows a trend close toward the more optimistic scenarios of international organizations - in the first half of 2020 the country’s foreign trade volume only decreased by 10.6% compared to the first half of 2019. In the article, the main channels of the COVID-19 impact on the world trade are indicated, namely: reduction of the production of goods and services due to restrictions on economic activity imposed by countries, disruption of global value chains, rising commercial costs, sharp decline in services, and price decrease of goods with low degree of processing. As in the rest of the world, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine are largely mitigated by the spread of digital technologies in trade, and conversely, the pandemic stimulates their development. Already in the second quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s exports of ICT services resumed growth and exceeded the pre-crisis level of the fourth quarter of 2019. The authors identify advantages and issues of accelerated digitalization of trade in the pandemic. The protection measures introduced by countries, including Ukraine, after the spread of coronavirus, are analyzed, with an emphasis on policy measures related to agri-food trade. It is proved that the limit of wheat exports during the pandemic is the result of annual memorandum of grain market players, so it cannot be considered a policy measure restricting trade. It was also proved that the ban on the export of buckwheat introduced by the Ukrainian government, which expired on July 1, 2020, had of a rather political nature, since the supply of buckwheat on the domestic market and the level of consumer prices for this product were guaranteed by import deliveries. This conclusion applies to other goods of significant social importance, whose imports increased significantly during the pandemic,
{"title":"Changes in world trade and trade policy in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: challenges and opportunities for Ukraine","authors":"T. Ostashko, I. Kobuta","doi":"10.15407/eip2020.03.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.007","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the trends of world trade and features of trade policies across the world during the period of economic restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. It also analyzes the development of Ukraine’s foreign trade and trade policy measures, which are applied by the government in the pandemic. Based on the identification of challenges and opportunities for the development of this country’s foreign trade during this pandemic and the analysis of forecasts and recommendations of international organizations, the authors substantiate proposals on the directions of Ukraine’s trade policy with an emphasis on the agri-food market A comparison of world trade developments in 2020 and 2021 forecasted by international organizations is made in the article. In the first half of 2020, the world trade development was closer toward the optimistic scenario of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the World Bank scenario, but the expected second wave of the pandemic may return the world trade trend to the WTO pessimistic scenario, where the world trade could be reduced by 31,9% in 2020. The development of Ukraine's foreign trade also shows a trend close toward the more optimistic scenarios of international organizations - in the first half of 2020 the country’s foreign trade volume only decreased by 10.6% compared to the first half of 2019. In the article, the main channels of the COVID-19 impact on the world trade are indicated, namely: reduction of the production of goods and services due to restrictions on economic activity imposed by countries, disruption of global value chains, rising commercial costs, sharp decline in services, and price decrease of goods with low degree of processing. As in the rest of the world, the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine are largely mitigated by the spread of digital technologies in trade, and conversely, the pandemic stimulates their development. Already in the second quarter of 2020, Ukraine’s exports of ICT services resumed growth and exceeded the pre-crisis level of the fourth quarter of 2019. The authors identify advantages and issues of accelerated digitalization of trade in the pandemic. The protection measures introduced by countries, including Ukraine, after the spread of coronavirus, are analyzed, with an emphasis on policy measures related to agri-food trade. It is proved that the limit of wheat exports during the pandemic is the result of annual memorandum of grain market players, so it cannot be considered a policy measure restricting trade. It was also proved that the ban on the export of buckwheat introduced by the Ukrainian government, which expired on July 1, 2020, had of a rather political nature, since the supply of buckwheat on the domestic market and the level of consumer prices for this product were guaranteed by import deliveries. This conclusion applies to other goods of significant social importance, whose imports increased significantly during the pandemic, ","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127438740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article is devoted to the problem of the relationship between expected results and real institutional, structural, and financial consequences of agrarian reforms aimed at the capitalization of land. The purpose of the publication is to summarize the positive and negative experience of the peasant reform of 1861 on changes in the relations of ownership and land use in the budgetary and financial sphere and foreign economic activity. Research is based on the history-institutional methodology using tools of economic comparability, retrospective analysis, and historical reconstruction. It is defined that the opening of the land market and the creation of a system of mortgage land loans allowed to increase the share of private land ownership of peasants, but did not turn them into effective owners and did not solve the problem of peasant land. Rising land prices contributed to the development of land speculation and increased rents, encouraging the farmers to predatory land use and depletion of soils without increasing productivity. The capitalization of land and the expansion of the hired labor market contributed to economic growth, increased government revenues and expenditures, and overcame the chronic state budget deficit. At the same time, the credit indebtedness of peasants grew, while ransom payments depleted peasant farms, reducing the potential for capital formation and investment. The public policy of forcing grain exports and supporting large agribusiness allowed to replenish the gold reserves of the treasury, but also led to the impoverishment of farmers, reduced quality of the exported grain, increased share of fodder crops, and lower share of food crops and finished goods. Intensified international competition to expand the supply of cheap grain led to lower prices, weaker competitive position of domestic exporters, and the growing dependence of the economy on world markets for agricultural products, and the local agrarian business - on foreign capital. The article provides recommendations to the government about taking into account the historical experience in the implementation of modern agrarian transformations, in particular, comprehensive support for farming as the main link of agricultural production and the guarantor of food security of the country. Their implementation will help prevent the risks of over-concentration of land, the proletarianization of the peasantry and its mass migration to cities and abroad, growing environmental problems, and vulnerability of the economy due to increasing dependence on the world markets for agricultural raw materials.
{"title":"Structural and financial risks of land capitalization: lessons of domestic history","authors":"V. Nebrat, K. Gorditsa, N. Gorin","doi":"10.15407/eip2020.03.075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.075","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the problem of the relationship between expected results and real institutional, structural, and financial consequences of agrarian reforms aimed at the capitalization of land. The purpose of the publication is to summarize the positive and negative experience of the peasant reform of 1861 on changes in the relations of ownership and land use in the budgetary and financial sphere and foreign economic activity. Research is based on the history-institutional methodology using tools of economic comparability, retrospective analysis, and historical reconstruction. It is defined that the opening of the land market and the creation of a system of mortgage land loans allowed to increase the share of private land ownership of peasants, but did not turn them into effective owners and did not solve the problem of peasant land. Rising land prices contributed to the development of land speculation and increased rents, encouraging the farmers to predatory land use and depletion of soils without increasing productivity. The capitalization of land and the expansion of the hired labor market contributed to economic growth, increased government revenues and expenditures, and overcame the chronic state budget deficit. At the same time, the credit indebtedness of peasants grew, while ransom payments depleted peasant farms, reducing the potential for capital formation and investment. The public policy of forcing grain exports and supporting large agribusiness allowed to replenish the gold reserves of the treasury, but also led to the impoverishment of farmers, reduced quality of the exported grain, increased share of fodder crops, and lower share of food crops and finished goods. Intensified international competition to expand the supply of cheap grain led to lower prices, weaker competitive position of domestic exporters, and the growing dependence of the economy on world markets for agricultural products, and the local agrarian business - on foreign capital. The article provides recommendations to the government about taking into account the historical experience in the implementation of modern agrarian transformations, in particular, comprehensive support for farming as the main link of agricultural production and the guarantor of food security of the country. Their implementation will help prevent the risks of over-concentration of land, the proletarianization of the peasantry and its mass migration to cities and abroad, growing environmental problems, and vulnerability of the economy due to increasing dependence on the world markets for agricultural raw materials.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134286615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The study considers modeling approaches to determine the relationship between the level of public debt and economic growth. Empirical evidence for the positive, neutral, and negative correlation between the indicators arrive in a nonlinear function in the form of inverted U-curve, whose theoretical argumentation is associated with the implementation of the golden rule of public finance. To verify the empirical evidence on the example of Ukraine's economy, the author provides a scenario assessment based on the constructed econometric model of fiscal-monetary interaction. The results of modeling confirm the existence of a relationship that corresponds to a second-order polynomial trend. The maximum level of public debt, above which the GDP rate declines, is 63.8%, and the critical level of public debt, at which the rate of economic growth changes to negative, is 87.4%. As the development of Ukraine's economy is approaching the upper limit of the determined functional entry, to accelerate growth, it is necessary to focus the limited resource of public debt to finance large-scale infrastructure projects with a high capital return.
{"title":"Modeling the impact of public debt on economic growth in Ukraine","authors":"Serhiy Shvets`","doi":"10.15407/eip2020.03.146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.146","url":null,"abstract":"The study considers modeling approaches to determine the relationship between the level of public debt and economic growth. Empirical evidence for the positive, neutral, and negative correlation between the indicators arrive in a nonlinear function in the form of inverted U-curve, whose theoretical argumentation is associated with the implementation of the golden rule of public finance. To verify the empirical evidence on the example of Ukraine's economy, the author provides a scenario assessment based on the constructed econometric model of fiscal-monetary interaction. The results of modeling confirm the existence of a relationship that corresponds to a second-order polynomial trend. The maximum level of public debt, above which the GDP rate declines, is 63.8%, and the critical level of public debt, at which the rate of economic growth changes to negative, is 87.4%. As the development of Ukraine's economy is approaching the upper limit of the determined functional entry, to accelerate growth, it is necessary to focus the limited resource of public debt to finance large-scale infrastructure projects with a high capital return.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"32 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113974339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-29DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.126
S. Shvets
{"title":"Modeling the impact of public debt on economic growth in Ukraine","authors":"S. Shvets","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.03.126","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122213581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The issue of industrial policy and industrial problems is one of the most controversial in the European academic community. Even today, we see a lack of theoretical basis for decision-making on industrial policy issues. The main purpose of the publication is to assess the contribution of industry to the socio-economic development of the EU and its member states, as well as to the dynamic structural changes that took place during 2000-2019. To achieve the article's goal, the author uses such indicators as the share of the industrial sector in the generation of gross value added, employment, labor productivity, and exports/imports. The article reveals a general trend to increase in the share of the services sector in the generation of gross value added for the EU-28 and to decrease in the share of the industrial sector. It is established that industry remains an important sector for the EU economy, and for the EU-28, it provides almost 20% of gross value added and more than 70% of total exports, and accounts for about 15% of the employed population. For each of the EU countries, the socio-economic contribution of industry is different - for Central and Eastern Europe, it is more important in the generation of gross value added and employment than for the EU founder countries of the euro area (the EU-15 group). It is found that labor productivity in the EU-15 is higher than in other countries. Growing labor productivity is typical for Denmark, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, and Great Britain, while lower productivity - for such CEE countries as Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, and Latvia. At the same time, growth rates of all industrial indicators in the latter countries is much higher than in the EU-15. The author considers the new EU industrial policy and various problems of the industrial sector in the EU. The study was carried out on the statistical basis of the European Commission using the methodology of Polish scientists of the Warsaw School of Economics to study the new industrial policy (Krzysztof Falkowski, Adam A. Ambroziak 2015).
产业政策与产业问题是欧洲学术界最具争议的问题之一。即使在今天，我们也看到产业政策问题决策缺乏理论基础。该出版物的主要目的是评估工业对欧盟及其成员国的社会经济发展的贡献，以及2000-2019年期间发生的动态结构变化。为了实现文章的目标，作者使用了工业部门在总增加值、就业、劳动生产率和出口/进口中所占的份额等指标。这篇文章揭示了一个总的趋势，即服务业在欧盟28国的总增加值中所占的份额增加，而工业部门所占的份额减少。工业仍然是欧盟经济的重要部门，对于欧盟28国来说，它提供了近20%的总增加值和超过70%的总出口，约占就业人口的15%。对于每一个欧盟国家来说，工业的社会经济贡献是不同的——对于中欧和东欧来说，它在创造总增加值和就业方面比欧元区的欧盟创始国(欧盟15国集团)更重要。研究发现，欧盟15国的劳动生产率高于其他国家。劳动生产率增长是丹麦、荷兰、爱尔兰、瑞典和英国的典型现象，而生产率下降是保加利亚、罗马尼亚、立陶宛和拉脱维亚等中东欧国家的典型现象。与此同时，这些国家所有工业指标的增长率都远高于欧盟15国。作者考虑了欧盟新的产业政策和欧盟工业部门的各种问题。该研究是在欧盟委员会的统计基础上进行的，使用华沙经济学院波兰科学家研究新产业政策的方法(Krzysztof Falkowski, Adam A. Ambroziak 2015)。
{"title":"Structural transformations of the EU industrial sector","authors":"K. Skorik","doi":"10.15407/eip2020.03.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.03.115","url":null,"abstract":"The issue of industrial policy and industrial problems is one of the most controversial in the European academic community. Even today, we see a lack of theoretical basis for decision-making on industrial policy issues. The main purpose of the publication is to assess the contribution of industry to the socio-economic development of the EU and its member states, as well as to the dynamic structural changes that took place during 2000-2019. To achieve the article's goal, the author uses such indicators as the share of the industrial sector in the generation of gross value added, employment, labor productivity, and exports/imports. The article reveals a general trend to increase in the share of the services sector in the generation of gross value added for the EU-28 and to decrease in the share of the industrial sector. It is established that industry remains an important sector for the EU economy, and for the EU-28, it provides almost 20% of gross value added and more than 70% of total exports, and accounts for about 15% of the employed population. For each of the EU countries, the socio-economic contribution of industry is different - for Central and Eastern Europe, it is more important in the generation of gross value added and employment than for the EU founder countries of the euro area (the EU-15 group). It is found that labor productivity in the EU-15 is higher than in other countries. Growing labor productivity is typical for Denmark, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, and Great Britain, while lower productivity - for such CEE countries as Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, and Latvia. At the same time, growth rates of all industrial indicators in the latter countries is much higher than in the EU-15. The author considers the new EU industrial policy and various problems of the industrial sector in the EU. The study was carried out on the statistical basis of the European Commission using the methodology of Polish scientists of the Warsaw School of Economics to study the new industrial policy (Krzysztof Falkowski, Adam A. Ambroziak 2015).","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"136 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126294634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-03DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.02.045
Oleksandr Yastremsky, V. Kulyk
The article deals with the volatility of intersectoral flows in Ukrainian economy during 2000–2017. For this purpose, the authors construct a dynamic matrix series of direct cost coefficients in comparable detail (19 economic activities (EAs)); calculate statistical characteristics of 361 dynamics (19x19) and coefficients of direct expenses of Ukraine's intersectoral balance; and analyze the dynamics of cost indicators of Ukraine's economy (the ratio of GDP to total output, the Frobenius – Perron numbers) and those of economic activities (the Brauer – Perron numbers). Construction of the historical series of the matrix of direct costs in comparable detail is achieved by aggregating the "input - output" tables. Volatility is assessed using indicators of variation, relative variation, sample standard deviation, standard deviation per mean, historical volatility, and standard trend error (regression), i.e. trend volatility. Volatility of intersectoral flows in Ukraine is significant. The maximum variation for the coefficients of direct costs for EA "Information ..." for all years of observation was 0.3144, for EA "Water Supply" - 0.3004, and for EA "Art" - 0.2673. Derivative aggregates (Brauer-Solow numbers, relative EA cost) are also volatile. According to estimates of the standard deviation, the agrosector is the most stable, the most unstable - public administration. Economy Ukraine has a significant margin of productivity. A sufficient Brauer-Solow condition for the productivity of the direct cost matrix is guaranteed to be satisfied for all years of observation. Out of 361 coefficients of direct costs, time trends are recorded for 166. Among them, 91 have an upward trend, 65 - a downward trend. To fix the presence of the trend, the authors use the probability of deviation of the hypothesis about the significance of the linear dependence of the coefficients of direct costs on time. The high cost intensity of the economy is a general economic problem of Ukraine. The ratio of GDP to total output in Ukraine is about 40%, while in developed countries, this figure is close to 60%. Reducing costs is a significant resource for economic growth in Ukraine.
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I. Bryzhan, V. Chevhanova, Оlesya Hryhoryeva, L. Svystun
The article is devoted to the innovative approach in the management of the area development for Ukraine based on demographic forecasting. Demographic forecasting is an essential element of informational supply for development and implementation of mid- and long-term social-economic development strategy and public administration of the area development. It is emphasized that the approach to solve this problem should be comprehensive. One of the modern options to settle the problem is based on borrowing European expertise on integrated development, which results, apart from social-economic growth and environment improvement, in significant increase in the number of European urban dwellers. Detailed demographic forecast should make a ground for decision-making and development of integrated area plans. Integrated development of areas, primarily urban ones, involves the development of all urban environment elements: transport, economy, economic and social infrastructure, etc. Therefore, it requires vertical integration, on one hand, of various public administration levels – national, regional, and local ones, and, on the other, of private sector and public society. Based on the analysis of demographic forecasting methods, the authors propose their own approach to area population forecasting, combining the component method that considers the net migration indices, the future employment estimating method and the similarity (correlation) method. The authors offer their own approach for area population forecasting based on a combination of cohort group method (considers the net migration indices), future employment estimate and similarity (correlation) methods. The common indices (birth and death rates, migration) should be the key components. However, the factors for their future changes should be defined individually based on the trends in the city's social-economic development. The proposed method takes into account the impact of the key drivers capable to change significantly the demographic forecasting when developing normative and functional demo-forecast options, and should make up the basis for social-economic strategic plans of urban development to be implemented by local authorities and self-government bodies. The theoretical provisions are supported with practical data of demographic forecasting for the implementation of integrated development strategy for the town of Poltava (Ukraine). Authors argue that demographic forecasting is optimal under the following conditions: detailed social-economic analysis of the city; and identification of strengths and weaknesses, and opportunities and threats. Based on the performed analysis and the objectives of perspective development, one can assess the opportunities for the improvement of demographic situation in the cities.
{"title":"Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development","authors":"I. Bryzhan, V. Chevhanova, Оlesya Hryhoryeva, L. Svystun","doi":"10.15407/eip2020.02.021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/eip2020.02.021","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the innovative approach in the management of the area development for Ukraine based on demographic forecasting. Demographic forecasting is an essential element of informational supply for development and implementation of mid- and long-term social-economic development strategy and public administration of the area development. It is emphasized that the approach to solve this problem should be comprehensive. One of the modern options to settle the problem is based on borrowing European expertise on integrated development, which results, apart from social-economic growth and environment improvement, in significant increase in the number of European urban dwellers. Detailed demographic forecast should make a ground for decision-making and development of integrated area plans. Integrated development of areas, primarily urban ones, involves the development of all urban environment elements: transport, economy, economic and social infrastructure, etc. Therefore, it requires vertical integration, on one hand, of various public administration levels – national, regional, and local ones, and, on the other, of private sector and public society. Based on the analysis of demographic forecasting methods, the authors propose their own approach to area population forecasting, combining the component method that considers the net migration indices, the future employment estimating method and the similarity (correlation) method. The authors offer their own approach for area population forecasting based on a combination of cohort group method (considers the net migration indices), future employment estimate and similarity (correlation) methods. The common indices (birth and death rates, migration) should be the key components. However, the factors for their future changes should be defined individually based on the trends in the city's social-economic development. The proposed method takes into account the impact of the key drivers capable to change significantly the demographic forecasting when developing normative and functional demo-forecast options, and should make up the basis for social-economic strategic plans of urban development to be implemented by local authorities and self-government bodies. The theoretical provisions are supported with practical data of demographic forecasting for the implementation of integrated development strategy for the town of Poltava (Ukraine). Authors argue that demographic forecasting is optimal under the following conditions: detailed social-economic analysis of the city; and identification of strengths and weaknesses, and opportunities and threats. Based on the performed analysis and the objectives of perspective development, one can assess the opportunities for the improvement of demographic situation in the cities.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129470193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-03DOI: 10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.02.091
N. Shelud'ko, S. Shishkov
The development of collective investment institutions (CIIs) in Ukraine is characterized by rather ambiguous and stable trends, which at first glance do not have any objective economic basis. The dynamics of CIIs activities in Ukraine demonstrates their steady invulnerability to the crises in the global and national economy, maintaining positions (in quantity terms) against the background of reduced number of both professional stock market participants and other institutional investors, and despite the decrease in the financial instruments in circulation, and the gradual formation in public consciousness of a neutral negative view of the functioning of the national stock market. The authors' assumption that the key to such institutional viability consists in the tax preferences for the CIIs, which is confirmed by the analysis. It is noted that in this case both the economic sense and the declared "collectivity" of this investment institution are distorted. The use of CIIs solely to ease the tax burden, with gross legal and tax violations creates risks for both the beneficiaries of such tax schemes and for the very existence of the institution. The specificity of "investment areas" outside the stock market, the highly conditional performance of the function of accumulation of investment resources and, correspondingly, the profanation of the CIIs' issuer function, in particular as to the fair distribution of investment income, distortions of the essence of the ideology of collective investment in combination with extremely loyal regulation on the part of the NSSMC all presently call into question the entire possibility of considering CIIs as a full-fledged component of the stock market.
{"title":"Institutions of collective investment in Ukraine: scale and consequences of investment dysfunction","authors":"N. Shelud'ko, S. Shishkov","doi":"10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.02.091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15407/ECONFORECAST2020.02.091","url":null,"abstract":"The development of collective investment institutions (CIIs) in Ukraine is characterized by rather ambiguous and stable trends, which at first glance do not have any objective economic basis. The dynamics of CIIs activities in Ukraine demonstrates their steady invulnerability to the crises in the global and national economy, maintaining positions (in quantity terms) against the background of reduced number of both professional stock market participants and other institutional investors, and despite the decrease in the financial instruments in circulation, and the gradual formation in public consciousness of a neutral negative view of the functioning of the national stock market. The authors' assumption that the key to such institutional viability consists in the tax preferences for the CIIs, which is confirmed by the analysis. It is noted that in this case both the economic sense and the declared \"collectivity\" of this investment institution are distorted. The use of CIIs solely to ease the tax burden, with gross legal and tax violations creates risks for both the beneficiaries of such tax schemes and for the very existence of the institution. The specificity of \"investment areas\" outside the stock market, the highly conditional performance of the function of accumulation of investment resources and, correspondingly, the profanation of the CIIs' issuer function, in particular as to the fair distribution of investment income, distortions of the essence of the ideology of collective investment in combination with extremely loyal regulation on the part of the NSSMC all presently call into question the entire possibility of considering CIIs as a full-fledged component of the stock market.","PeriodicalId":212761,"journal":{"name":"Economy and Forecasting","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130284975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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