Socio-economic Planning Sciences最新文献_第2页

Optimizing public sector resources: A centralized DEA model for effective allocation of shared inputs 优化公共部门资源：有效分配共享投入的集中式 DEA 模型

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102094

Sheng-Wei Lin , Wen-Min Lu

This study presents a novel centralized Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model with shared inputs to optimize the allocation of public sector resources and enhance management efficiency. Recognizing the need for a comprehensive approach to public sector performance evaluation, the study integrates the strengths of the centralized DEA framework and the two-stage DEA model with shared inputs. The centralized DEA model shifts the focus from individual decision-making units to optimizing resources across the entire public sector system. This allows for the reallocation of shared inputs among decision making units, leading to potential efficiency gains and improved overall performance. Incorporating shared inputs within the centralized structure enables a more nuanced understanding of the interdependencies and interactions between distinct functions and stages within the public sector. The empirical application of the proposed model in the context of public sector management and cultural subsidies provides valuable insights. The findings highlight inefficiency and offer guidance for policymakers and administrators on optimizing shared resource use. The centralized DEA model with shared inputs serves as a practical decision-support tool, informing the development of targeted policies and strategies to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public service delivery, particularly in resource-constrained environments. This research contributes to public sector performance evaluation's theoretical and methodological advancement, offering a comprehensive framework for resource optimization and improved management practices.

本研究提出了一种具有共享投入的新型集中式数据包络分析（DEA）模型，以优化公共部门的资源配置，提高管理效率。考虑到公共部门绩效评估需要一种全面的方法，本研究整合了集中式数据包络分析框架和共享投入的两阶段数据包络分析模型的优势。集中式 DEA 模型将重点从单个决策单位转移到优化整个公共部门系统的资源。这样就可以在决策单位之间重新分配共享投入，从而提高潜在效率，改善整体绩效。将共享投入纳入集中式结构，可以更细致地了解公共部门内部不同职能和阶段之间的相互依存和相互作用。在公共部门管理和文化补贴的背景下，对拟议模型的实证应用提供了宝贵的见解。研究结果凸显了低效率问题，并为政策制定者和管理者优化共享资源的使用提供了指导。具有共享投入的集中式 DEA 模型可作为实用的决策支持工具，为制定有针对性的政策和战略提供信息，以提高公共服务提供的效率和效果，尤其是在资源有限的环境中。这项研究为公共部门绩效评估的理论和方法进步做出了贡献，为资源优化和改进管理实践提供了一个全面的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: The case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey 利用基于代理的建模模拟移徙路径：叙利亚难民前往土耳其的案例

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102089

Özlem Güngör , Dilek Günneç , Sibel Salman , Eda Yücel

The decade-long Syrian civil war has triggered a significant migration wave in the Middle East, with Turkey hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees. Our study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate and predict migration paths in potential future refugee crises. The primary goal is to support aid organizations in planning the delivery of essential aid services during migration movements, offering insights that can be applied to various geographical areas and migration scenarios. While we use the Syrian refugee movement to Turkey as a case study, the model is intended as a flexible tool for analyzing migration patterns in future crises. The proposed ABM considers two characteristics of refugee groups: level of risk sensitivity and level of information. To enhance the model’s functionality, we have extended the A* algorithm with a cost metric to calculate the weighted average of distance and risk to a destination point. Our case study examines the crisis in southern Idlib through six scenarios, offering insights into refugee numbers, migration paths, camp occupancy rates, and heat maps of densely populated regions for each scenario. Validation is performed by comparing model outcomes with situation reports and official statements from the relevant period, demonstrating the proposed ABM’s potential for adaptation to other migration instances and further analysis under different parameters.

长达十年的叙利亚内战引发了中东地区的大规模移民潮，其中土耳其收容的叙利亚难民人数最多。我们的研究引入了一个基于代理的模型（ABM），旨在模拟和预测未来潜在难民危机中的迁移路径。其主要目的是支持援助组织规划在难民迁徙过程中提供基本援助服务，并提供可适用于不同地理区域和迁徙情景的见解。我们以叙利亚难民向土耳其的迁移为案例进行研究，该模型旨在成为分析未来危机中迁移模式的灵活工具。拟议的 ABM 考虑了难民群体的两个特征：风险敏感程度和信息程度。为了增强模型的功能，我们对 A* 算法进行了扩展，增加了成本指标，以计算到目的地点的距离和风险的加权平均值。我们的案例研究通过六种情景考察了伊德利卜省南部的危机，深入分析了每种情景下的难民人数、迁移路径、难民营入住率以及人口稠密地区的热图。我们将模型结果与相关时期的情况报告和官方声明进行了比较验证，从而证明了所提出的人工智能模型具有适应其他迁移情况的潜力，并可在不同参数下进行进一步分析。

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引用次数: 0

Multi-period emergency facility location-routing problems under uncertainty and risk aversion 不确定性和风险规避条件下的多期应急设施选址问题

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102093

Qing-Mi Hu, Yan Hu, Xiaoping Li

This paper addresses a multi-period emergency facility location-routing problem, in which the uncertainties in material demands and transportation time, as well as dynamic inventory replenishment and carryover are incorporated in the design of multi-level emergency logistics networks. To measure the risks stemming from uncertain transportation time, mean-CVaR method is used. Then, a risk-averse stochastic programming model for the presented problem is formulated to minimize the total rescue time of the network. Moreover, a genetic algorithm is developed to solve the proposed model. Extensive numerical experiments including the randomly generated instances and a case study on the Wenchuan earthquake in China are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the presented model and algorithm. Experimental results show that the genetic algorithm significantly performs better than the Gurobi solver in terms of both solution quality and solution time.

本文针对多期应急设施选址-路径问题，在多级应急物流网络设计中纳入了物资需求和运输时间的不确定性，以及动态库存补充和结转。为衡量不确定运输时间带来的风险，采用了均值-CVaR 方法。然后，针对提出的问题建立了一个风险规避随机编程模型，以最小化网络的总救援时间。此外，还开发了一种遗传算法来求解所提出的模型。为了验证所提模型和算法的有效性，我们进行了广泛的数值实验，包括随机生成的实例和中国汶川地震的案例研究。实验结果表明，遗传算法在求解质量和求解时间方面都明显优于 Gurobi 求解器。

引用次数: 0

Enhancing enterprise investment efficiency through artificial intelligence: The role of accounting information transparency 通过人工智能提高企业投资效率：会计信息透明度的作用

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102092

Xin Zhao , Guoqing Zhai , Vincent Charles , Tatiana Gherman , Hyoungsuk Lee , Tuan Pan , Yuping Shang

In the post-COVID-19 era, with global economic recovery as a critical goal, the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a key driver of economic growth and transformation. AI not only acts as a powerful catalyst for economic development but also significantly impacts enterprise investment efficiency (EIE). This paper explores the influence of AI on EIE, with a focus on the role of accounting information transparency. Using data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed enterprises between 2010 and 2021, the findings demonstrate that AI development significantly enhances EIE. These results are confirmed through robustness tests, including variable substitution, and addressing endogeneity and sample limitations. Mechanism analysis reveals that AI improves EIE by increasing the transparency of accounting information. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis shows that AI has a greater impact on the investment efficiency of high-tech and technology-intensive enterprises, non-state-owned enterprises, and those located in highly urbanised areas, such as ‘Broadband China’ pilot cities. This paper examines how AI development affects EIE through the lens of enterprise accounting information transparency, offering actionable insights for enhancing accounting disclosures and serving as a valuable resource for enterprises navigating the technological transformation of the modern era.

在以全球经济复苏为重要目标的后 COVID-19 时代，人工智能（AI）的快速发展已成为经济增长和转型的关键驱动力。人工智能不仅是经济发展的强大催化剂，也对企业投资效率（EIE）产生了重大影响。本文探讨了人工智能对企业投资效率的影响，重点关注会计信息透明度的作用。利用 2010 年至 2021 年沪深 A 股上市企业的数据，研究结果表明，人工智能的发展显著提高了 EIE。这些结果通过稳健性检验得到了证实，包括变量替代、解决内生性和样本限制等。机制分析表明，人工智能通过提高会计信息的透明度来改善 EIE。此外，异质性分析表明，人工智能对高科技和技术密集型企业、非国有企业以及位于高度城市化地区（如 "宽带中国 "试点城市）的企业的投资效率影响更大。本文通过企业会计信息透明度的视角，研究了人工智能的发展如何影响企业投资效率，为加强会计信息披露提供了可操作的见解，也为企业在现代技术转型中提供了宝贵的资源。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of a low-carbon transport system policy on total factor carbon emission performance: evidence from 283 cities in China 低碳交通系统政策对全要素碳排放绩效的影响：来自中国 283 个城市的证据

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102091

Li-juan Si, Hao-yu Cao, Jian Wang

Reducing carbon emissions from the transport sector is crucial to achieve “carbon neutrality” and is an important component of a low-carbon policy system. In response to the uncertainty of evaluating current low-carbon transport policies, we provide an in-depth analysis and examination of low-carbon transport system (LCTS) policies implemented in China. Using data from 283 Chinese cities between 2006 and 2020, we provide evidence on the policy effects, potential mechanisms, and heterogeneity of LCTS policies on carbon emission performance. Results showed that LCTS policies significantly improved carbon emission performance in pilot regions. The main ways to achieve this policy’s objective were to reduce energy consumption in pilot cities, to promote the development of green technologies, and to implement low-carbon transformation of public transport. Moreover, there was heterogeneity in the policy’s effects, with the implementation of a LCTS being more effective in eastern and central regions of China and in larger and more compact cities. By analysing the policy’s mechanisms and heterogeneity of effects, this article provides a reference for the formulation and selection of low-carbon transport policies.

减少交通部门的碳排放是实现 "碳中和 "的关键，也是低碳政策体系的重要组成部分。针对当前低碳交通政策评估的不确定性，我们对中国实施的低碳交通系统（LCTS）政策进行了深入分析和研究。利用 2006 年至 2020 年期间 283 个中国城市的数据，我们提供了有关低碳交通系统政策对碳排放绩效的政策效果、潜在机制和异质性的证据。结果表明，LCTS 政策显著改善了试点地区的碳排放绩效。实现这一政策目标的主要途径是降低试点城市的能源消耗、促进绿色技术的发展以及对公共交通进行低碳改造。此外，该政策的效果也存在差异，在中国东部和中部地区，以及在规模更大、布局更紧凑的城市，低碳公交系统的实施效果更好。本文通过分析政策机制和效果的异质性，为低碳交通政策的制定和选择提供参考。

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引用次数: 0

Regional development and intellectual capital: Unveiling the innovation-tradition dilemma 地区发展与知识资本：揭示创新与传统的两难困境

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102087

Pierluigi Toma , Patricia Laurens

In the agri-food sector, intellectual capital includes innovation and tradition, which are often wrongly perceived as incompatible. The impact of intellectual capital on regional development has not been widely studied, particularly in the context of the Italian agri-food sector, which has a strong territorial heterogeneity. This paper aims to measure the impact of intellectual capital and know-how on regional development in the agricultural sector using a nonparametric efficiency methodology applied to a unique geographic area-based dataset. The study finds that innovation, measured by patents, has a better impact on efficiency than the relational component, which has an inverted U-shaped effect.

在农业食品行业，知识资本包括创新和传统，而创新和传统往往被错误地认为是不相容的。智力资本对地区发展的影响尚未得到广泛研究，特别是在意大利农业食品行业的背景下，因为该行业具有很强的地域异质性。本文旨在采用一种非参数效率方法，以独特的基于地理区域的数据集为基础，衡量知识资本和专有技术对农业部门区域发展的影响。研究发现，以专利衡量的创新对效率的影响要优于关系部分，后者具有倒 U 型效应。

引用次数: 0

Impact of political relationships on virtual land flow from China's food trade 政治关系对中国粮食贸易虚拟土地流动的影响

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102085

Guohua Ni , Man Teng , Bin Su , Zhenling Chen

The increasing backlash against globalization has shifted public opinion towards being against trade. This situation puts food trade, which is resources constrained and susceptible to political relations, into a complex dilemma. Due to the concerns on agricultural endowments, food trade needs to be considered with strategic interests because of its sensitivity and fragility. Using virtual land as a measurement to analyse the resource flows behind the food trade can provide an objective perspective on what extent a country depends on the trade. Overlaying worldwide trade disputes and political interventions, establishing solid trade relationships is increasingly becoming urgent. This study uses an extended gravity model, assesses the virtual land traded by China with 10 species over 20 years, and provides insights on establishing politics-oriented trade relationships, further testing how this political mechanism works in the food trade. The results demonstrate that memorandums of understanding are the fundamental institutional layer to guarantee trading activities and promote smooth transactions for both sides; state visits are determinable factors in establishing bilateral relationships and it significantly promote upper-middle income countries, which crucially impacts the trading system. As those endeavors undertaken by executive departments are often ignored, more attention should be paid to them during interactive stages. Political relations show differences in food trade among different countries and varieties. The promoting effect of political relations is stronger in middle and high-income countries, and the impact on Russia and Ukraine is more significant than others. Compared within varieties, foreign state visits and endeavor presents more positive on pork.

对全球化日益强烈的反弹使公众舆论转向反对贸易。这种情况使资源有限、易受政治关系影响的粮食贸易陷入复杂的两难境地。由于对农业禀赋的担忧，粮食贸易因其敏感性和脆弱性，需要从战略利益的角度加以考虑。以虚拟土地为衡量标准来分析粮食贸易背后的资源流动，可以客观地透视一个国家对粮食贸易的依赖程度。在全球贸易争端和政治干预的背景下，建立稳固的贸易关系变得日益迫切。本研究利用扩展的引力模型，评估了 20 年来中国与 10 个物种的虚拟土地贸易，并对建立以政治为导向的贸易关系提出了见解，进一步检验了这一政治机制在粮食贸易中的作用。研究结果表明，谅解备忘录是保障贸易活动、促进双方交易顺利进行的基础性制度层；国事访问是建立双边关系的决定性因素，对中高收入国家具有显著的促进作用，对贸易体系产生了关键性影响。由于执行部门的这些努力往往被忽视，因此在互动阶段应给予更多关注。政治关系在不同国家、不同品种的粮食贸易中表现出差异。政治关系对中高收入国家的促进作用更强，对俄罗斯和乌克兰的影响比其他国家更大。与其他品种相比，外国国家的访问和努力对猪肉的影响更为积极。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptable solutions for retail supply chain resilience in the post-COVID-19 era 后 COVID-19 时代零售供应链复原力的适应性解决方案

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102090

Ifeyinwa Juliet Orji , Chukwuebuka Martinjoe U-Dominic

Faced with globalization and unpredictable disruptions, firms aspire to achieve resilience and sustainable recovery of their supply chain (SC) networks. However, Nigerian retail firms are faced with challenges that deter resilience in their SCs under disruptions, and to date, literature is currently non-existent that analyzes these challenges and proposes strategies for their mitigation. This study, therefore aims to identify and analyze the degree of significance of the challenges to SC resilience in Nigerian retail firms under disruptions, as well as propose strategies to mitigate them for enhancing retail SC resilience under potential disruption risks in the post COVID-19 era. Nineteen challenges were identified and categorized into three contexts namely operational-level, macro-level and internal-level. Then, a methodology based on integrating decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory with the Shannon entropy concept and simple additive weighting was proposed to aid in the study analysis. Results indicate that the operational-level context is most significant and ranks highest in deterring SC resilience in Nigerian retail firms under disruptions. Specifically, 'limited credit facility' is the highest ranked challenge, followed by 'lack of Omni channel fulfilment capabilities', 'delivery irregularities', ‘workers’ high welfare package’ and 'lack of supplier collaboration’. Besides, 'incentivisation' mitigates these challenges the most and is strongest linked to build retail SC resilience, followed by 'digitalization' and ‘SC localisation'. Implications are highlighted from the results for retail SC resilience in the post-COVID-19 era.

面对全球化和不可预测的干扰，企业渴望实现其供应链（SC）网络的复原力和可持续恢复。然而，尼日利亚零售企业面临着各种挑战，这些挑战阻碍了其供应链在中断情况下的恢复能力，迄今为止，还没有文献对这些挑战进行分析并提出缓解策略。因此，本研究旨在确定和分析尼日利亚零售企业在中断情况下的业务流程复原力所面临的挑战的重要程度，并提出缓解这些挑战的策略，以增强零售业务流程在后 COVID-19 时代潜在中断风险下的复原力。确定了 19 项挑战，并将其分为三个方面，即运营层面、宏观层面和内部层面。然后，提出了一种将决策试验和评估实验室与香农熵概念和简单加权相结合的方法，以帮助研究分析。结果表明，运营层面的环境对尼日利亚零售企业在中断情况下的自适应能力的阻碍作用最大，排名最高。具体而言，"有限的信贷机制 "是排名最高的挑战，其次是 "缺乏全渠道履行能力"、"交货不正常"、"工人的高福利 "和 "缺乏供应商合作"。此外，"激励机制 "能最大程度地缓解这些挑战，与建立零售业供应链复原力的联系最为紧密，其次是 "数字化 "和 "供应链本地化"。研究结果对后《COVID-19》时代的零售自然科学复原力具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Towards spatially disaggregated cocaine supply chain modeling 建立按空间分类的可卡因供应链模型

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102086

Nicholas R. Magliocca , Ridvan Aksu , Kendra McSweeney , Hashir Tanveer , Kevin M. Curtin , Burcu Keskin

Despite the global reach and economic scale of cocaine trafficking, our best geographic understanding of the global trade remains coarse. A more spatially disaggregated understanding of how the cocaine supply chain embeds across multiple locations is necessary for informing security policies and anticipating the spread and intensity of social and environmental harms associated with the cocaine trade. In this research, modeling methods used for legal supply chains are adapted to spatially disaggregate illicit supply chain flows. Profit and supply maximization model versions were compared to elucidate key decision parameters cocaine traffickers might be facing. Cocaine flows to EU+3 (Norway, Turkey, and United Kingdom) markets were estimated based on the smuggling capacity of major Central American ports and bilateral trade volumes of selected commodities most often seized with cocaine shipments. The resulting estimates of cocaine volumes diverted to EU+3 countries from Central America ranged between 938 and 1526 metric tons (MT). Generally, easier concealment and storage in Central America led to less volume supplied to the United States (US) and increased shipments to EU+3 markets. Importantly, the value of this modeling approach is not in the quantitative estimates produced, but in the methodological approach that provides the ability to rigorously ground any quantitative estimates of clandestine phenomenon in the best available data.

尽管可卡因贩运的范围和经济规模遍及全球，但我们对全球贸易的最佳地理了解仍然很粗略。要为安全政策提供信息，并预测与可卡因贸易相关的社会和环境危害的蔓延和强度，就必须对可卡因供应链如何嵌入多个地点有更多的空间分类了解。在这项研究中，用于合法供应链的建模方法被用于对非法供应链流进行空间分类。对利润和供应最大化模型版本进行了比较，以阐明可卡因贩运者可能面临的关键决策参数。根据中美洲主要港口的走私能力和最常与可卡因货物一起缉获的某些商品的双边贸易量，估算了流向欧盟+3（挪威、土耳其和英国）市场的可卡因量。由此估算出的从中美洲流入欧盟+3 国家的可卡因数量在 938 至 1526 公吨之间。一般来说，中美洲更容易隐藏和储存，导致供应给美国的数量减少，而供应给欧盟+3 市场的数量增加。重要的是，这种建模方法的价值并不在于所得出的定量估计值，而在于其方法论，它能够根据现有的最佳数据对任何秘密现象的定量估计值进行严格的基础分析。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating SEM, Wald test and ANOM to disentangle the effect of TMT functional background on strategic plans 整合 SEM、Wald 检验和 ANOM，析出 TMT 职能背景对战略计划的影响

IF 6.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Socio-economic Planning Sciences

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102083

Fabrizia Sarto , Sara Saggese , Emmadonata Carbone , Pasquale Sarnacchiaro

Building on the upper echelon theory, this paper investigates the relationship between the functional background of the Top Management Team (TMT) and the strategic forward-looking disclosure in terms of both publication and quality of strategic plans. Specifically, it employs Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), along with the Wald test and Analysis of Means (ANOM), to disentangle the effects of the three specifications of functional background (i.e., output, throughput, and peripheral) on strategic plans. Analyzing a sample of 341 non-financial companies listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, the research assesses the quality of strategic plans through content analysis. The empirical evidence reveals that the TMT's functional background significantly influences the strategic forward-looking disclosure, with the peripheral functional background having the highest impact compared to the other specifications. This finding underscores the crucial role of managerial characteristics in enhancing the quality of strategic plans and suggests that firms should consider managers' functional expertise when making directors' appointments. In doing so, the paper not only contributes to theory and practice but also offers methodological advancements.

本文以高层理论为基础，从战略计划的发布和质量两个方面，研究了高层管理团队（TMT）的职能背景与战略前瞻性信息披露之间的关系。具体而言，本文采用结构方程建模（SEM）、Wald 检验和均值分析（ANOM）来区分三种职能背景规格（即产出、吞吐量和外围）对战略计划的影响。研究分析了 341 家在米兰证券交易所上市的非金融公司样本，通过内容分析评估了战略计划的质量。实证证据显示，TMT 的职能背景对战略前瞻性披露有显著影响，与其他规范相比，外围职能背景的影响最大。这一发现强调了管理者特征在提高战略计划质量方面的关键作用，并建议公司在任命董事时应考虑管理者的职能专长。因此，本文不仅为理论和实践做出了贡献，还在方法论上取得了进步。

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引用次数: 0