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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. 致谢。
IF 2.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12261
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引用次数: 0
The Relationships between Drought Exposure, Fertility Preferences, and Contraceptive Behaviors: A Multicountry Study. 干旱暴露、生育偏好和避孕行为之间的关系:一项多国研究。
IF 3.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12258
Oluwaseyi Somefun, Boladé Hamed Banougnin, Emily Smith-Greenaway

The interplay between population dynamics and the environment has long interested demographers. Although studies have explored how climate patterns affect macrolevel population processes, such as mortality and migration, little is known about their impact on individual-level demographic behaviors. This study fills this research gap by examining the linkages between exposure to drought and women's fertility preferences and contraceptive behaviors in sub-Saharan Africa. We analyze data from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program, focusing on 17 countries in East, Southern, and West Africa. We investigate whether women's recent exposure to drought episodes in their community affects their fertility preferences and modern contraceptive use. Generally, the findings show that drought is relevant to understanding women's fertility preferences and behaviors in the vast majority of countries; however, drought exposure has variable impacts. Moreover, whereas in some countries, drought exposure encourages contraceptive behaviors that align with women's preferences, in select countries it is associated with behavior that is misaligned with women's stated preferences. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of examining climate events as complex forces that have localized meanings for demographic outcomes.

长期以来,人口学家一直对人口动态与环境之间的相互作用很感兴趣。尽管已有研究探讨了气候模式如何影响死亡率和迁移等宏观层面的人口进程,但对气候模式对个体层面人口行为的影响却知之甚少。本研究通过考察干旱与撒哈拉以南非洲妇女的生育偏好和避孕行为之间的联系,填补了这一研究空白。我们分析了人口与健康调查项目的数据,重点关注东非、南部非洲和西非的 17 个国家。我们调查了妇女最近在其所在社区遭遇的干旱是否会影响她们的生育偏好和现代避孕药具的使用。总体而言,研究结果表明,在绝大多数国家,干旱与了解妇女的生育偏好和行为息息相关;但是,干旱对妇女的影响各不相同。此外,在一些国家,干旱会鼓励符合妇女偏好的避孕行为,而在某些国家,干旱则会导致与妇女声明的偏好不一致的行为。总之,这项研究强调了将气候事件视为对人口结果具有局部意义的复杂力量的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Emergency Contraceptive Pill Use with Health Management Information Systems Data in Pakistan. 利用巴基斯坦卫生管理信息系统数据评估紧急避孕药的使用情况。
IF 3.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12260
Shiza Farid, Khan Mohammed, Kristin Bietsch, Priya Emmart

According to the WHO, all clients should have access to a range of contraceptive methods, including at least one short-term, one long-term, one permanent, and one emergency method of contraception. While there are data on the contraceptive method mix available for many low- and middle-income countries, there are limited data on emergency contraception (EC). This is likely due to some surveys not routinely collecting this information, how survey questions are asked, dual method use, and/or low levels of reported use of EC pill (ECP). Even with low reported use in surveys, contraceptive social marketing statistics from DKT International. show a trend in recent years of increasing product sales of ECPs. To understand a more complete scope of ECP use, we use Pakistan as a case study and analyze Pakistan's Demographic Health Survey (DHS) surveys and Pakistan's Contraceptives Logistics Management Systems. Based on commodities dispensed data for ECPs in 2021, about 0.4 percent of all married women in Pakistan use ECPs. While there is currently a small proportion of women, it is growing and the use of ECPs is not zero as indicated by the DHS. Therefore, where available, countries should review their health management information systems data alongside survey data for ECP use.

世卫组织认为,所有客户都应获得一系列避孕方法,包括至少一种短期避孕方法、一种长期避孕方法、一种永久避孕方法和一种紧急避孕方法。虽然许多中低收入国家都有关于避孕方法组合的数据,但关于紧急避孕的数据却很有限。这可能是由于一些调查没有例行收集这一信息、调查问题的提问方式、双重方法的使用和/或报告的紧急避孕药(ECP)使用率较低等原因造成的。即使调查中报告的使用率较低,DKT 国际公司提供的避孕药具社会营销统计数据显示,近年来 ECP 产品的销售量呈上升趋势。为了更全面地了解 ECP 的使用情况,我们以巴基斯坦为例,分析了巴基斯坦人口健康调查 (DHS) 和巴基斯坦避孕药具物流管理系统。根据 2021 年 ECP 的商品配发数据,巴基斯坦约有 0.4% 的已婚妇女使用 ECP。虽然目前这一比例较小,但却在不断增长,而且人口与健康调查显示,使用 ECPs 的比例并非为零。因此,在有条件的情况下,各国应在审查其卫生管理信息系统数据的同时,审查 ECP 使用情况的调查数据。
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引用次数: 0
Child Fostering and Family Size Preferences in Uganda. 乌干达的儿童寄养和家庭规模偏好。
IF 3.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12259
Cassandra Cotton

Mothers who exceed their ideal family size (IFS) may find themselves caring for more children than desired. In the absence of reliable and desirable prenatal controls of family size, mothers may foster-out children to reduce burdens of childrearing, particularly in contexts where fostering is common. Using six rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys collected in Uganda between 1988 and 2016, I explore the relationship between exceeding IFS and child out-fostering, proposing that fostering-out may serve to manage excess fertility and that this relationship may change as actual and desired fertility declines. Models are run separately for mothers and children aged 0-17 to explore mothers' overall out-fostering behavior versus out-fostering strategies for children. Results at the mother level suggest a strong positive relationship between exceeding IFS and out-fostering that remains relatively stable over time, but results at the child level indicate children's age explains the relationship between mothers' exceeding IFS and being fostered-out, demonstrating the nuances of how family size preferences might impact family life in practice. Though mothers report a desire for smaller families over time, childbearing and childrearing behaviors, including high fertility and child out-fostering, remain consistent over the course of Uganda's fertility transition, signifying the central role out-fostering plays in Ugandan families.

超过理想家庭规模(IFS)的母亲可能会发现自己照顾的孩子比期望的要多。在缺乏可靠、理想的产前家庭规模控制的情况下,母亲可能会将孩子寄养出去,以减轻抚养孩子的负担,尤其是在寄养现象普遍的情况下。利用 1988 年至 2016 年期间在乌干达收集的六轮人口与健康调查,我探讨了超过综合家庭战略与寄养儿童之间的关系,提出寄养儿童可能有助于管理过高的生育率,而且这种关系可能会随着实际生育率和期望生育率的下降而改变。模型分别针对母亲和 0-17 岁的儿童运行,以探讨母亲的整体寄养行为和针对儿童的寄养策略。母亲层面的研究结果表明,超过综合家庭筹资战略与寄养之间存在着很强的正相关关系,而且这种关系随着时间的推移保持相对稳定,但儿童层面的研究结果表明,儿童的年龄解释了母亲超过综合家庭筹资战略与被寄养之间的关系,这表明了家庭规模偏好在实践中可能对家庭生活产生的细微影响。虽然随着时间的推移,母亲们表示希望家庭规模缩小,但在乌干达的生育转型过程中,包括高生育率和将儿童送出寄养在内的生育和育儿行为仍然保持一致,这表明送出寄养在乌干达家庭中发挥着核心作用。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying Profiles of Support for Legal Abortion Services in Zambia: A Latent Class Analysis. 识别赞比亚合法堕胎服务的支持特征:潜类分析。
IF 3.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12257
Joseph G Rosen, Michael T Mbizvo, Nachela Chelwa, Lyson Phiri, Jenny A Cresswell, Veronique Filippi, Nkomba Kayeyi

Relative to neighboring countries, Zambia has among the most progressive abortion policies, but numerous sociopolitical constraints inhibit knowledge of pregnancy termination rights and access to safe abortion services. Multistage cluster sampling was used to randomly select 1,486 women aged 15-44 years from households in three provinces. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to partition women into discrete groups based on patterns of endorsed support for legalized abortion on six socioeconomic and health conditions. Predictors of probabilistic membership in latent profiles of support for legal abortion services were identified through mixture modeling. A three-class solution of support patterns for legal abortion services emerged from LCA: (1) legal abortion opponents (∼58 percent) opposed legal abortion across scenarios; (2) legal abortion advocates (∼23 percent) universally endorsed legal protections for abortion care; and (3) conditional supporters of legal abortion (∼19 percent) only supported legal abortion in circumstances where the pregnancy threatened the fetus or mother. Advocates and Conditional supporters reported higher exposure to family planning messages compared to opponents. Relative to opponents, advocates were more educated, and Conditional supporters were wealthier. Findings reveal that attitudes towards abortion in Zambia are not monolithic, but women with access to financial/social assets exhibited more receptive attitudes towards legal abortion.

与邻国相比,赞比亚的堕胎政策最为进步,但众多社会政治限制因素阻碍了人们对终止妊娠权利的了解和安全堕胎服务的获得。我们采用多阶段聚类抽样法从三个省的家庭中随机抽取了 1486 名 15-44 岁的女性。我们采用潜类分析法(LCA),根据六项社会经济和健康条件对合法堕胎的认可支持模式,将妇女划分为不同的群体。通过混合建模,确定了支持合法堕胎服务的潜在特征中的概率成员预测因素。从 LCA 中得出了合法堕胎服务支持模式的三类解决方案:(1)合法堕胎反对者(58%)在各种情况下都反对合法堕胎;(2)合法堕胎倡导者(23%)普遍支持堕胎护理的法律保护;(3)合法堕胎有条件支持者(19%)仅在怀孕威胁到胎儿或母亲的情况下支持合法堕胎。与反对者相比,倡导者和有条件支持者表示接触过更多的计划生育信息。与反对者相比,支持者受教育程度更高,有条件支持者更富有。研究结果表明,在赞比亚,人们对堕胎的态度并不是一成不变的,但拥有经济/社会资产的妇女对合法堕胎表现出更容易接受的态度。
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引用次数: 0
Adjusting Injectable Contraceptive Use for Months Since the Last Injection. 根据上次注射后的月份调整注射避孕药的使用。
IF 3.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12256
Mahesh Karra, David Canning

Injectables are one of the most popular methods of contraception worldwide, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. An advantage of injectables over shorter-acting methods is that they provide additional flexibility by not requiring re-supply as frequently. However, there is a risk that injectable users may delay their next injection and may therefore have reduced or no protection from pregnancy. In surveys, women may report that they are using contraception in the form of injectables when the time since they had their last injection (more than four months) would imply that they have reduced protection against the risk of pregnancy. We carried out two field studies in urban Malawi, and we record reported injectable contraceptive use while also asking the number of months since women received their last injection. We observe that 13.8 percent of women who report using injectables also report that they received their last injection more than four months ago, and 11 percent report that they received their last injection more than six months ago. Our analysis highlights the need for additional follow-up with women who report using injectables in surveys to confirm whether they are, in fact, using the method effectively.

注射剂是世界上最流行的避孕方法之一,尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲。与短效避孕方法相比,注射剂的优点是不需要经常补给,因而具有更大的灵活性。然而,注射式避孕法使用者可能会推迟下一次注射,因此可能会减少或没有避孕保护。在调查中,妇女可能会报告说她们正在使用注射式避孕药具,而距离上次注射(超过四个月)的时间意味着她们对怀孕风险的保护程度降低了。我们在马拉维城市开展了两项实地研究,在记录所报告的注射式避孕药具使用情况的同时,还询问了妇女距上次注射的时间有多少个月。我们发现,13.8% 报告使用注射式避孕药的妇女还报告说,她们最后一次注射是在四个多月前,11% 的妇女报告说,她们最后一次注射是在六个月前。我们的分析突出表明,有必要对在调查中报告使用注射法的女性进行额外的跟踪,以确认她们是否确实有效地使用了这种方法。
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引用次数: 0
Contraceptive Adoption and Changes in Empowerment in Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal. 肯尼亚、尼日利亚和塞内加尔的避孕药具采用情况和赋权变化。
IF 2.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12250
Michelle L O'Brien, Marita Zimmermann, Linnea Eitmann, Dennis L Chao, Joshua L Proctor

Women's empowerment and contraceptive use are critical to achieving gender equality. The positive association between more empowered women and higher rates of contraceptive use has been well-established by cross-sectional research. However, there remains a gap in understanding the longitudinal relationship between contraceptive adoption and changes to women's empowerment. This study represents a novel approach to understanding the relationship between contraceptive adoption and women's empowerment longitudinally, at the individual level. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the relationship between contraceptive adoption and women's empowerment using more than one wave of panel data. We leverage the longitudinal design of the Urban Reproductive Health Initiative data to code empowerment items by change over time (e.g., more empowered, no change, less empowered). We use sparse principal component analysis to establish empowerment change domains and calculate individual scores standardized by country-level averages. We estimate mixed effects models on these change domains, to investigate the link between contraceptive adoption and empowerment. We find common themes in empowerment across contexts-but contraceptive adoption has both positive and negative effects on those domains, and this varies across context. We discuss the need for cohort studies to examine this relationship.

妇女赋权和避孕药具的使用对于实现性别平等至关重要。横向研究已充分证实,妇女赋权越多,避孕药具使用率越高,两者之间存在正相关关系。然而,在了解避孕药具的采用与妇女赋权变化之间的纵向关系方面仍存在差距。本研究采用了一种新颖的方法,从个人层面纵向了解采用避孕药具和妇女赋权之间的关系。据作者所知,这是首次尝试使用不止一次的面板数据来衡量避孕措施的采用与妇女赋权之间的关系。我们利用城市生殖健康倡议数据的纵向设计,按照随时间的变化(如更有权力、无变化、较少权力)对权力项目进行编码。我们使用稀疏主成分分析来建立赋权变化域,并以国家级平均值为标准计算个人得分。我们对这些变化领域进行了混合效应模型估算,以研究避孕药具采用与赋权之间的联系。我们发现了不同情况下增强权能的共同主题--但采用避孕药具对这些领域既有积极影响,也有消极影响,而且不同情况下的影响也不尽相同。我们讨论了开展队列研究来研究这种关系的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Contraceptive Intentions and Use throughout the Extended Postpartum Period: A Panel Study in Ethiopia. 延长产后期间的避孕意图和使用:埃塞俄比亚的一项小组研究。
IF 2.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12252
Sophia Magalona, Celia Karp, Solomon Shiferaw, Assefa Seme, Birikty Lulu, Mahari Yihdego, Linnea Zimmerman

The postpartum period is an ideal time for women to access contraception, but the prevalence of postpartum contraceptive use remains low in sub-Saharan Africa. To better understand the gap between women's desires to space or limit births and their contraceptive behaviors, intention to use contraception has been proposed as a person-centered measure of contraceptive demand. Using data from a panel study of Ethiopian women aged 15-49 who were interviewed at six weeks, six months, and one year postpartum, we examined the dynamics of contraceptive intention in the first year postpartum and its relationship with contraceptive use. Contraceptive intention fluctuated considerably in the year after childbirth. At six weeks, 60.9 percent of women intended to use a contraceptive method in the next year; 23.2% did not. By one year, less than half (43.5 percent) were using a method, and those who had no intention to use doubled (44.5 percent). Women who developed or sustained their intention to use a method in the postpartum period were more likely to adopt a method by one year than those who did not, showing that contraceptive intention is a strong predictor of use and has the potential to inform person-centered reproductive health programming in the extended postpartum period.

产后是妇女获得避孕药具的理想时间,但在撒哈拉以南非洲,产后避孕药具使用率仍然很低。为了更好地理解女性生育空间或限制生育的愿望与避孕行为之间的差距,人们提出将避孕意图作为以人为中心的避孕需求衡量标准。利用一项针对15-49岁埃塞俄比亚妇女的小组研究数据,我们在产后六周、六个月和一年时对她们进行了访谈,研究了产后第一年避孕意愿的动态及其与避孕药具使用的关系。避孕意愿在产后一年中波动很大。六周时,60.9%的女性打算在下一年使用避孕方法;23.2%没有。到一年时,只有不到一半(43.5%)的人在使用这种方法,而那些无意使用的人则翻了一番(44.5%)。在产后形成或持续使用某种方法的女性比没有形成或持续的女性更有可能在一年前采用这种方法,这表明避孕意图是使用的有力预测因素,并有可能在延长的产后期间为以人为中心的生殖健康规划提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Access to Higher Education and Adolescent Fertility in Chile. 智利接受高等教育的机会与青少年生育率。
IF 2.1 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12254
Viviana Salinas, Valentina Jorquera-Samter, Pilar Wiegand-Cruz

This study investigates gender differences in the association between adolescent fertility and the likelihood of initiating higher education among young Chilean men and women. We adopt an entropy balancing strategy to estimate the association between adolescent fertility and the likelihood of starting higher education while accounting for potential selection into early childbearing due to socioeconomic status and prior academic achievement. We use data from official national registers that cover a cohort of Chilean students who attended publicly funded schools and who successfully completed secondary schooling between 2011 and 2022. Our results indicate that adolescent mothers are 15 percentage points less likely to initiate higher education than their peers who did not give birth during adolescence. In comparison, teenage fathers are 20 percentage points less likely to do so than their childless counterparts. Our findings stand in contrast to previously identified disadvantage patterns for secondary school completion, whereby adolescent fertility more significantly hinders schooling completion for women relative to men. We contend that this reversal may be related to traditional gender-role expectations in Chile, which encourage young fathers to act as providers and, therefore, may be prevented from continuing on their education path into tertiary studies.

本研究调查了智利青年男女青春期生育率与接受高等教育可能性之间的性别差异。我们采用熵平衡策略来估算青少年生育率与开始接受高等教育的可能性之间的关联,同时考虑到社会经济地位和先前学业成绩可能导致的早育选择。我们使用的数据来自国家官方登记册,涵盖了 2011 年至 2022 年期间就读于公立学校并顺利完成中学学业的智利学生群体。我们的研究结果表明,与青春期未生育的同龄人相比,青春期母亲接受高等教育的可能性要低 15 个百分点。相比之下,未成年父亲接受高等教育的可能性比没有生育的同龄人低 20 个百分点。我们的研究结果与之前发现的中学毕业的不利模式形成了鲜明对比,即青春期生育对女性完成学业的阻碍比男性更大。我们认为,这种逆转可能与智利传统的性别角色期望有关,这种期望鼓励年轻父亲充当供养者,因此可能会阻碍他们在教育道路上继续深造。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling Contraception and Pregnancy in Malawi: A Thanzi La Onse Mathematical Modeling Study. 马拉维避孕与怀孕模型:Thanzi La Onse 数学建模研究。
IF 1.9 3区 医学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2023-12-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-21 DOI: 10.1111/sifp.12255
Tim Colbourn, Eva Janoušková, Ines Li Lin, Joseph Collins, Emilia Connolly, Matt Graham, Britta Jewel, Fannie Kachale, Tara Mangal, Gerald Manthalu, Joseph Mfutso-Bengo, Emmanuel Mnjowe, Sakshi Mohan, Margherita Molaro, Wingston Ng'ambi, Dominic Nkhoma, Paul Revill, Bingling She, Robert Manning Smith, Pakwanja Twea, Asif Tamuri, Andrew Phillips, Timothy B Hallett

Malawi has high unmet need for contraception with a costed national plan to increase contraception use. Estimating how such investments might impact future population size in Malawi can help policymakers understand effects and value of policies to increase contraception uptake. We developed a new model of contraception and pregnancy using individual-level data capturing complexities of contraception initiation, switching, discontinuation, and failure by contraception method, accounting for differences by individual characteristics. We modeled contraception scale-up via a population campaign to increase initiation of contraception (Pop) and a postpartum family planning intervention (PPFP). We calibrated the model without new interventions to the UN World Population Prospects 2019 medium variant projection of births for Malawi. Without interventions Malawi's population passes 60 million in 2084; with Pop and PPFP interventions. it peaks below 35 million by 2100. We compare contraception coverage and costs, by method, with and without interventions, from 2023 to 2050. We estimate investments in contraception scale-up correspond to only 0.9 percent of total health expenditure per capita though could result in dramatic reductions of current pressures of very rapid population growth on health services, schools, land, and society, helping Malawi achieve national and global health and development goals.

马拉维未得到满足的避孕需求很高,该国已制定了一项已计算成本的国家计划,以提高避孕药具的使用率。估算这些投资对马拉维未来人口数量的影响有助于政策制定者了解提高避孕率政策的效果和价值。我们利用个人层面的数据建立了一个新的避孕和怀孕模型,该模型捕捉到了避孕方法的启动、转换、中断和失败的复杂性,并考虑到了个人特征的差异。我们通过一项旨在提高开始避孕率的人口活动(Pop)和一项产后计划生育干预措施(PPFP)来模拟避孕规模的扩大。在没有新干预措施的情况下,我们根据联合国《世界人口展望》2019 年对马拉维出生人数的中位变量预测对模型进行了校准。在不采取干预措施的情况下,马拉维人口在 2084 年超过 6000 万;在采取 Pop 和 PPFP 干预措施的情况下,马拉维人口在 2100 年达到峰值,低于 3500 万。我们比较了 2023 年至 2050 年采取和不采取干预措施的避孕覆盖率和成本。我们估计,对扩大避孕措施的投资仅占人均医疗卫生总支出的 0.9%,但却能显著减轻当前人口快速增长对医疗卫生服务、学校、土地和社会造成的压力,帮助马拉维实现国家和全球的健康与发展目标。
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引用次数: 0
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Studies in Family Planning
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