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Enhancing Capacity to Comply with Sustainability Standards in the Milk Value Chain in East Africa: Challenges, Prospects, and Policy Implications 提高东非牛奶价值链遵守可持续性标准的能力:挑战、前景和政策影响
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.3390/su16188100
Fredy Timothy Mlyavidoga Kilima, George Mutani Msalya, Amos Omore
This paper addresses the need to contextualize sustainability standards and supply chain management in dairy value chains in East Africa, where milk perishability and limited cold storage significantly impact the industry. The study highlights the importance of localizing these standards, given the greater dependence on local supply chains following the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on milk standards literature and various interventions aimed at promoting systemic change, this review analyses the capacity of marginalized stakeholders in East Africa’s dairy value chains to meet sustainability standards, focusing particularly on the social dimensions of these standards. The findings indicate that compliance with sustainability and safety standards is predominantly restricted to formal dairy networks, which process less than 20 percent of milk produced in the region. Most milk sales occur through informal or unorganized markets, which face significant barriers to meeting international sustainability benchmarks. The review advocates for the alignment of international sustainability standards with the unique conditions of the informal markets dominating East Africa’s dairy sector. It suggests enhancing stakeholder capabilities and addressing regulatory barriers as necessary steps for improving compliance with these standards. The co-operative model is highlighted as a promising approach to integrating farmers and marginalized value chain actors into the formal sector, thereby facilitating incremental adoption of sustainability standards. The paper identifies strategic entry points for organizing and upgrading the supply chain, including capacity building, certification, and catalyzing farmer groups to compliance and productivity.
本文探讨了在东非乳制品价值链中制定可持续性标准和供应链管理的必要性,牛奶的易腐性和有限的冷藏条件对该行业产生了重大影响。研究强调了这些标准本地化的重要性,因为在 COVID-19 大流行之后,人们更加依赖本地供应链。本综述以牛奶标准文献和旨在促进系统性变革的各种干预措施为基础,分析了东非乳业价值链中被边缘化的利益相关者达到可持续发展标准的能力,尤其侧重于这些标准的社会层面。研究结果表明,符合可持续发展和安全标准的主要局限于正规乳制品网络,这些网络加工的牛奶不到该地区牛奶产量的20%。大多数牛奶是通过非正规或无组织市场销售的,这些市场在达到国际可持续发展基准方面面临巨大障碍。本次审查主张使国际可持续发展标准与东非乳制品行业中占主导地位的非正规市场的独特条件相一致。报告建议,提高利益相关者的能力和解决监管障碍是改善这些标准遵守情况的必要步骤。论文强调,合作社模式是将农民和边缘化价值链参与者纳入正规部门的一种有前途的方法,从而促进可持续性标准的逐步采用。本文确定了组织和提升供应链的战略切入点,包括能力建设、认证以及促进农民团体遵守标准和提高生产力。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Smart Grid Sustainability: Using Advanced Hybrid Machine Learning Techniques While Considering Multiple Influencing Factors for Imputing Missing Electric Load Data 增强智能电网的可持续性:使用先进的混合机器学习技术,同时考虑多种影响因素来推算缺失的电力负荷数据
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.3390/su16188092
Zhiwen Hou, Jingrui Liu
Amidst the accelerating growth of intelligent power systems, the integrity of vast and complex datasets has become essential to promoting sustainable energy management, ensuring energy security, and supporting green living initiatives. This study introduces a novel hybrid machine learning model to address the critical issue of missing power load data—a problem that, if not managed effectively, can compromise the stability and sustainability of power grids. By integrating meteorological and temporal characteristics, the model enhances the precision of data imputation by combining random forest (RF), Spearman weighted k-nearest neighbors (SW-KNN), and Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation (LM-BP) techniques. Additionally, a variance–covariance weighted method is used to dynamically adjust the model’s parameters to improve predictive accuracy. Tests on five metrics demonstrate that considering various correlated factors reduces errors by approximately 8–38%, and the hybrid modeling approach reduces predictive errors by 12–24% compared to single-model approaches. The proposed model not only ensures the resilience of power grid operations but also contributes to the broader goals of energy efficiency and environmental sustainability.
随着智能电力系统的加速发展,庞大而复杂的数据集的完整性已成为促进可持续能源管理、确保能源安全和支持绿色生活倡议的关键。本研究介绍了一种新型混合机器学习模型,以解决电力负荷数据缺失这一关键问题--如果不能有效管理这一问题,电网的稳定性和可持续性就会受到影响。通过整合气象和时间特征,该模型结合了随机森林 (RF)、斯皮尔曼加权 k 近邻 (SW-KNN) 和 Levenberg-Marquardt 反向传播 (LM-BP) 技术,提高了数据估算的精度。此外,还采用了方差-协方差加权法来动态调整模型参数,以提高预测准确性。对五项指标的测试表明,考虑各种相关因素可将误差减少约 8-38%,与单一模型方法相比,混合建模方法可将预测误差减少 12-24%。所提出的模型不仅能确保电网运行的弹性,还有助于实现更广泛的能源效率和环境可持续性目标。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental, Social, and Governance Scores and Loan Composition Inside United States Banks 美国银行的环境、社会和治理得分与贷款构成
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188075
Silvia Bressan
We analyze the loan portfolios of United States banks from 2013 to 2023, showing that high environmental, social, and governance (ESG) banks have larger shares of consumer loans and commercial loans and smaller shares of construction loans and real estate loans. We also find that the governance pillar (G) is more tightly related to the bank loan composition compared to the environmental (E) and social (S) pillars. Furthermore, we show that construction loans and real estate loans decrease more considerably with bank ESG scores inside countries with high gas emissions, i.e., where ESG issues would arguably be more serious. Our interpretation is that sustainable banks are reluctant in lending money for real estate projects, exposing them to potentially high ESG risk. These findings contribute to developing a deeper insight about the relationship between ESG and bank lending, which, in the previous literature, has been treated more frequently in aggregate terms instead of separating loan types. Our outcomes suggest that sustainability is crucial for the availability of funds in the real estate sector, delivering important insights to bank and real estate managers, besides policy makers.
我们分析了美国银行 2013 年至 2023 年的贷款组合,结果表明,环境、社会和治理(ESG)高的银行的消费贷款和商业贷款份额较大,而建筑贷款和房地产贷款份额较小。我们还发现,与环境(E)和社会(S)支柱相比,治理(G)支柱与银行贷款构成的关系更为紧密。此外,我们还发现,在气体排放较高的国家,建筑贷款和房地产贷款随着银行 ESG 分数的降低而大幅减少,而在这些国家,ESG 问题可以说更为严重。我们的解释是,可持续发展的银行不愿意为房地产项目提供贷款,使其面临潜在的高环境、社会和治理风险。这些发现有助于更深入地了解环境、社会和公司治理与银行贷款之间的关系,而在以往的文献中,更多的是以综合的方式而不是以贷款类型来处理这种关系。我们的研究结果表明,可持续性对于房地产行业的资金供应至关重要,这为银行和房地产管理者以及政策制定者提供了重要启示。
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引用次数: 0
Cost-Sensitive Rainfall Intensity Prediction with High-Noise Commercial Microwave Link Data 利用高噪声商用微波链路数据进行成本敏感型降雨强度预测
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188067
Liankai Zheng, Jiaxiang Lin, Zhixin Huang, Yu Lin, Qin Zheng, Qianqian Chen, Lizheng Lin, Jianyun Chen
Rainfall intensity prediction based on commercial microwave link data has received significant attention in recent years due to the higher spatial resolution and lower energy consumption. However, the predictive performance is inferior to the model based on meteorological data by reason of the high noise in commercial microwave link data, further exacerbated by the imbalance in the number of samples across different rainfall intensities. Hence, a cost-sensitive rainfall intensity prediction model (CSRFP) is proposed to achieve better predictive performance in high-noise commercial microwave link data. First, the spatiotemporal scene information is encoded, and its weights are trained to provide the model with correlations between signal data from different stations, which helps the model to better capture potential patterns between the data and thus reduce the effect of noise. Next, the rainfall cross-entropy loss based on the rainfall distribution provides the model with the probability of different rainfall intensities occurring and back-calculates the signal attenuation at a specific rainfall intensity, assigning more reasonable weights to different samples considering signal attenuation, which makes the model cost-sensitive and can address the class imbalance problem. Extensive experiments are carried out on high-noise communication data and imbalanced rainfall data in Fuzhou. Compared to typical prediction methods such as RNN applied to rainfall and communication data, CSRFP improves Recall, Precision, AUCROC, AUCPR and F1 and Accuracy by approximately 19%, 37%, 8%, 22%, 30%, and 17%, respectively. Significantly, the model’s prediction accuracy for heavy rain with the smallest number of samples improves by about 13%.
近年来,基于商业微波链路数据的降雨强度预测因空间分辨率较高和能耗较低而备受关注。然而,由于商业微波链路数据的高噪声,其预测性能不如基于气象数据的模型,而不同降雨强度的样本数量不平衡又进一步加剧了这一问题。因此,我们提出了成本敏感型降雨强度预测模型(CSRFP),以便在高噪声商业微波链路数据中获得更好的预测性能。首先,对时空场景信息进行编码,并训练其权重,为模型提供不同站点信号数据之间的相关性,这有助于模型更好地捕捉数据之间的潜在模式,从而降低噪声的影响。其次,基于降雨分布的降雨交叉熵损失为模型提供了不同降雨强度发生的概率,并反向计算了特定降雨强度下的信号衰减,考虑到信号衰减,为不同样本分配了更合理的权重,这使得模型对成本敏感,可以解决类不平衡问题。在高噪声通信数据和福州不平衡降雨数据上进行了大量实验。与应用于降雨和通信数据的 RNN 等典型预测方法相比,CSRFP 在 Recall、Precision、AUCROC、AUCPR 和 F1 以及 Accuracy 方面分别提高了约 19%、37%、8%、22%、30% 和 17%。值得注意的是,在样本数量最少的情况下,该模型对暴雨的预测准确率提高了约 13%。
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引用次数: 0
How Does Digital Transformation Moderate Green Culture, Job Satisfaction, and Competitive Advantage in Sustainable Hotels? 数字化转型如何调节可持续酒店的绿色文化、工作满意度和竞争优势?
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188072
Gul Coskun Degirmen, Derya Ozilhan Ozbey, Emine Sardagı, Ilknur Cevik Tekin, Durmus Koc, Pınar Erdogan, Feden Koc, Emel Arık
Target groups within an organization adopt its culture, reflecting it in all internal and external business processes. Adopting a green organizational culture in hotels with sustainability certificates plays an important role in reshaping business processes by developing sustainability awareness among employees. Digital transformation, which facilitates corporate culture and business processes, plays a role in employee job satisfaction while also supporting environmental, social, and economic sustainability. This research aims to determine the relationship between green organizational culture, job satisfaction, and competitive advantage variables and to examine the moderating role of digital transformation on these relationships. The data-collecting techniques of choice were surveys and semi-structured interviews. While Amos software (Version 24) was used to test the hypothetical model in the analysis of survey data, a Hayes Process macro was used to determine the moderating effect. The interview forms’ data was analyzed using a bag-of-words model. According to the research results, there is a positive relationship between the participation, consistency, and adaptability sub-dimensions of green organizational culture and job satisfaction, while there is no significant relationship between the mission sub-dimension and job satisfaction. Furthermore, the study reveals the moderating role of digital transformation in the effect of job satisfaction on competitive advantage.
组织内的目标群体会采纳其文化,并将其反映在所有内部和外部业务流程中。通过培养员工的可持续发展意识,在获得可持续发展认证的酒店中采用绿色组织文化在重塑业务流程方面发挥着重要作用。数字化转型促进了企业文化和业务流程的发展,在提高员工工作满意度的同时,也支持了环境、社会和经济的可持续发展。本研究旨在确定绿色组织文化、工作满意度和竞争优势变量之间的关系,并考察数字化转型对这些关系的调节作用。数据收集技术选择了调查和半结构化访谈。在分析调查数据时,使用了 Amos 软件(第 24 版)来检验假设模型,并使用 Hayes Process macro 来确定调节效应。访谈表的数据采用词袋模型进行分析。研究结果表明,绿色组织文化的参与性、一致性和适应性子维度与工作满意度之间存在正相关关系,而使命感子维度与工作满意度之间没有显著关系。此外,研究还揭示了数字化转型对工作满意度影响竞争优势的调节作用。
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引用次数: 0
Concentrations of Organochlorine, Organophosphorus, and Pyrethroid Pesticides in Rivers Worldwide (2014–2024): A Review 全球河流中有机氯、有机磷和拟除虫菊酯农药的浓度(2014-2024 年):综述
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188066
Acela López-Benítez, Alfredo Guevara-Lara, Miguel A. Domínguez-Crespo, José A. Andraca-Adame, Aidé M. Torres-Huerta
The extensive use of pesticides has led to the contamination of natural resources, sometimes causing significant and irreversible damage to the environment and human health. Even though the use of many pesticides is banned, these compounds are still being found in rivers worldwide. In this review, 205 documents have been selected to provide an overview of pesticide contamination in rivers over the last 10 years (2014–2024). After these documents were examined, information of 47 river systems was organized according to the types of pesticides most frequently detected, including organochloride, organophosphorus, and pyrethroid compounds. A total of 156 compounds were classified, showing that 46% of these rivers contain organochlorine compounds, while 40% exhibit organophosphorus pesticides. Aldrin, hexachlorocyclohexane, and endosulfan were the predominant organochlorine pesticides with concentration values between 0.4 and 37 × 105 ng L−1. Chlorpyrifos, malathion, and diazinon were the main organophosphorus pesticides with concentrations between 1 and 11 × 105 ng L−1. Comparing the pesticide concentrations with standard guidelines, we found that the Ganga River in India (90 ng L−1), the Owan and Okura Rivers in Nigeria (210 and 9 × 103 ng L−1), and the Dong Nai River in Vietnam (68 ng L−1) exceed the permissible levels of aldrin (30 ng L−1).
杀虫剂的广泛使用导致了自然资源的污染,有时会对环境和人类健康造成重大的、不可逆转的损害。尽管许多杀虫剂已被禁止使用,但这些化合物仍在世界各地的河流中被发现。本综述选取了 205 份文件,概述了过去 10 年(2014-2024 年)河流中农药污染的情况。在对这些文件进行研究后,根据最常检测到的农药类型,包括有机氯、有机磷和拟除虫菊酯化合物,对 47 个河流系统的信息进行了整理。共对 156 种化合物进行了分类,结果显示,46% 的河流含有有机氯化合物,40% 的河流含有有机磷农药。艾氏剂、六氯环己烷和硫丹是主要的有机氯农药,浓度值在 0.4 至 37 × 105 纳克/升之间。毒死蜱、马拉硫磷和二嗪农是主要的有机磷农药,浓度值在 1 至 11 × 105 纳克/升之间。将农药浓度与标准指南进行比较后,我们发现印度的甘加河(90 纳克/升-1)、尼日利亚的奥万河和奥库拉河(210 纳克/升-1 和 9 × 103 纳克/升-1)以及越南的同奈河(68 纳克/升-1)的艾氏剂含量超过了允许水平(30 纳克/升-1)。
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引用次数: 0
The Technical and Economic Aspects of Integrating Energy Sectors for Climate Neutrality 整合能源部门实现气候中和的技术和经济问题
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188070
Dorel Stoica, Lucian Mihăescu, Gheorghe Lăzăroiu, George Cristian Lăzăroiu
With the development of an energy sector based on renewable primary sources, structural changes are emerging for the entire national energy system. Initially, it was estimated that energy generation based on fossil fuels would decrease until its disappearance. However, the evolution of capture capacity leads to a possible coexistence for a certain period with the renewable energy sector. The paper develops this concept of the coexistence of the two systems, with the positioning of green hydrogen not only within the renewable energy sector but also as a transformation vector for carbon dioxide captured in the form of synthetic fuels, such as and . The authors conducted pilot-scale research on capture with green , both for pure (captured) and for found in combustion gases. The positive results led to the respective recommendation. The research conducted by the authors meets the strict requirements of the current energy phase, with the authors considering that wind and solar energy alone are not sufficient to meet current energy demand. The paper also analyzes the economic aspects related to price differences for energy produced in the two sectors, as well as their interconnection. The technical aspect, as well as the economic aspect, of storage through various other solutions besides hydrogen has been highlighted. The development of the renewable energy sector and its demarcation from the fossil fuel energy sector, even with the transcendent vector represented by green hydrogen, leads to the deepening of dispersion aspects between the electricity sector and the thermal energy sector, a less commonly mentioned aspect in current works, but of great importance. The purpose of this paper is to highlight energy challenges during the current transition period towards climate neutrality, along with solutions proposed by the authors to be implemented in this phase. The current stage of combustion of the mixture imposes requirements for the capture of the resulting .
随着以可再生初级能源为基础的能源部门的发展,整个国家能源系统的结构正在发生变化。最初估计,以化石燃料为基础的能源生产将会减少,直至消失。然而,捕获能力的演变可能导致在一定时期内与可再生能源部门共存。本文对这两个系统共存的概念进行了阐释,不仅将绿色氢气定位在可再生能源领域,而且还将其作为以合成燃料(如和)形式捕获的二氧化碳的转化载体。作者对纯(捕获)和燃烧气体中发现的绿色氢气进行了试点规模的捕获研究。积极的成果促成了相应的建议。作者进行的研究符合当前能源阶段的严格要求,作者认为仅靠风能和太阳能不足以满足当前的能源需求。论文还分析了与这两个部门生产的能源价格差异有关的经济方面,以及它们之间的相互联系。除氢气外,还强调了通过其他各种解决方案进行储存的技术和经济问题。可再生能源部门的发展及其与化石燃料能源部门的分界,甚至以绿色氢气为代表的超越性矢量,导致电力部门和热能部门之间的分散性加深,这是当前工作中较少提及的一个方面,但却非常重要。本文旨在强调当前向气候中和过渡时期的能源挑战,以及作者提出的在这一阶段实施的解决方案。目前的混合物燃烧阶段要求捕获所产生的......和......。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the Green Transition Path of Airport Development under the Mechanism of Tripartite Evolutionary Game Model 三方演化博弈模型机制下的机场发展绿色转型路径研究
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188074
Yangyang Lv, Lili Wan, Naizhong Zhang, Zhan Wang, Yong Tian, Wenjing Ye
Since existing studies primarily explore green development measures from the static perspective of a single airport stakeholder, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model to analyze the strategic choices of three key stakeholders: airport authorities, third-party organizations, and government departments, based on evolutionary game theory. By solving the stable strategy of the tripartite evolution using the Jacobian matrix, the green transition of airport development can be divided into three stages: “initiation”, “development”, and “maturity”, allowing for the exploration of key factors influencing the green transition of airport development. A simulation analysis is conducted based on real Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport data. The results indicate that the tripartite evolutionary game strategy is stable at E4(0,0,1), and the green transition of Baiyun Airport remains in the development stage. By improving the reward and punishment mechanisms of government departments, the evolutionary game strategy can be stabilized at E8(1,1,1), promoting the green transition of airport development toward the mature stage. By adjusting the game parameters, the dynamic process of green transition in airports at different levels of development and under varying regulatory environments can be effectively captured, supporting the precise formulation of corresponding policies.
由于现有研究主要从单一机场利益相关者的静态视角探讨绿色发展措施,本文基于演化博弈论,构建了演化博弈模型,分析机场当局、第三方组织和政府部门三个主要利益相关者的战略选择。利用雅各布矩阵求解三方演化的稳定策略,可将机场发展的绿色转型划分为三个阶段:通过利用雅各布矩阵求解三方演化的稳定策略,可将机场发展的绿色转型划分为 "启动"、"发展 "和 "成熟 "三个阶段,从而探索影响机场发展绿色转型的关键因素。基于广州白云国际机场的真实数据进行了模拟分析。结果表明,三方演化博弈策略稳定在 E4(0,0,1),白云机场的绿色转型仍处于发展阶段。通过完善政府部门的奖惩机制,进化博弈策略可以稳定在 E8(1,1,1),促进机场发展向成熟阶段绿色转型。通过调整博弈参数,可以有效捕捉不同发展水平、不同监管环境下机场绿色转型的动态过程,为精准制定相应政策提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating Technological Environmental Design and Energy Interventions in the Residential Building Stock: The Pilot Case of the Small Island Procida 在住宅建筑中整合技术环境设计和能源干预措施:普罗奇达小岛的试点案例
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188071
Giada Romano, Serena Baiani, Francesco Mancini
The next decade will see severe environmental and technological risks, pushing our adaptive capacity to its limits. The EPBD Case Green directive, to counter this phenomenon, emphasizes accelerating building renovations, reducing GHG emissions and energy consumption, and promoting renewable energy installations. Additionally, it calls for deadlines to phase out fossil fuels and mandates solar system installations. This research provides a comprehensive perspective on the opportunities for and challenges of incorporating renewable energy into the built environment. It focuses on the 2961 residential buildings on Procida, a small island located south of Italy, to efficiently utilize energy resources and lay the groundwork for sustainability. Beginning with an analysis of the territorial, urban, historical–conservation, structural, and geological context, in addition to environmental assessments, the research develops a classification and archetypalization system using in-house software. This system aggregates data on the island’s residential buildings, analyzes their current state, and formulates various intervention scenarios. These scenarios demonstrate how integrating technological–environmental design interventions, such as upgrading the building envelope and enhancing bioclimatic behavior, with energy retrofitting measures, such as replacing mechanical systems and installing solar panels, can improve the overall performance of the existing building stock and achieve energy self-sufficiency.
未来十年将面临严重的环境和技术风险,使我们的适应能力达到极限。为应对这一现象,EPBD 案例绿色指令强调加快建筑翻新,减少温室气体排放和能源消耗,并促进可再生能源的安装。此外,它还要求限期淘汰化石燃料,并强制安装太阳能系统。这项研究从一个全面的角度探讨了将可再生能源纳入建筑环境的机遇和挑战。研究重点关注意大利南部小岛普罗奇达(Procida)上的 2961 栋住宅楼,以有效利用能源资源,为可持续发展奠定基础。除环境评估外,研究还从对地域、城市、历史保护、结构和地质背景的分析入手,利用内部软件开发了一个分类和原型化系统。该系统汇总了岛上住宅建筑的数据,分析了它们的现状,并制定了各种干预方案。这些方案展示了如何将技术环境设计干预措施(如升级建筑围护结构和增强生物气候行为)与能源改造措施(如更换机械系统和安装太阳能电池板)相结合,从而提高现有建筑的整体性能,实现能源自给自足。
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引用次数: 0
Speed Limits in São Paulo and the Actions for Road Safety and Air Quality 圣保罗的车速限制与道路安全和空气质量行动
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.3390/su16188065
Douglas Gonçalves, Regina Maura de Miranda, Celio Daroncho, Janini de Oliveira Dias da Silva, Fabrício Rodrigues Teixeira, João Augusto Dunck Dalosto, Pedro José Pérez-Martínez
Studies carried out have revealed that every day around three thousand people lose their lives in the world due to traffic accidents and poor air quality. Large cities, with their millions of inhabitants and vehicles, face many problems relating to vehicular traffic. In 2015, the speed limit was modified on several roads in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. However, in 2017, the speed limits were increased again, but not on all previous routes. This study analyzed the impact of this change on the number of accidents and pollutant concentrations, over a period of ten years, comparing the periods before and after the implementation of the measure, using real data collected and provided by the authorities of the city and the state transit and environmental companies, on more than forty routes and two nearby air-quality stations. The results showed a clear reduction in the number of accidents without victims on the roads of the city of São Paulo, starting in 2010. Although the restrictive measures imposed by government officials may have contributed to the decrease in the number of accidents, the number of fatalities has not changed so much. Air pollution has not improved substantially with speed changes, as new speed increases have been linked to new episodes of congestion. The average number of fatalities due to accidents has been increasing since 2010 and accidents are becoming more serious. The application of a general linear statistical model (GLM) estimated the impact of the speed reduction policy in terms of the number of injuries avoided per month: 43.4 and 14.1 on other roads and on the Pinheiros highways, respectively. The results highlight the need for a constant data collection by the authorities in cities with high vehicle traffic. The important temporal time trend in terms of reduction of injuries, but not in terms of fatalities and air quality, shows the need to apply joint public policies, not only speed reduction, but also the use of new technologies and raising drivers’ awareness of the problem.
研究表明,全世界每天约有三千人因交通事故和空气质量差而丧生。拥有数百万居民和车辆的大城市面临着许多与车辆交通有关的问题。2015 年,巴西圣保罗市对多条道路的限速进行了修改。然而,2017 年,限速再次提高,但并非之前的所有路线。这项研究分析了这一变化在十年间对事故数量和污染物浓度的影响,并利用该市当局、州交通和环境公司收集和提供的真实数据,对实施该措施前后的时期进行了比较,涉及四十多条路线和附近的两个空气质量站。结果显示,从 2010 年开始,圣保罗市道路上无人员伤亡的事故数量明显减少。虽然政府官员采取的限制措施可能有助于减少事故数量,但死亡人数却没有太大变化。空气污染并没有随着车速的改变而得到实质性改善,因为新的车速提高与新的拥堵现象有关。自 2010 年以来,事故造成的平均死亡人数一直在增加,事故也越来越严重。应用一般线性统计模型(GLM)估算了降速政策在每月避免受伤人数方面的影响:在其他道路和 Pinheiros 高速公路上分别为 43.4 起和 14.1 起。这些结果突出表明,在车辆流量大的城市,当局需要不断收集数据。受伤人数减少的重要时间趋势,而死亡人数和空气质量减少的重要时间趋势,表明有必要采取联合公共政策,不仅要降低车速,还要使用新技术,并提高驾驶员对这一问题的认识。
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期刊
Sustainability
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