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Exploring Stakeholders in Elderly Community Retrofit Projects: A Tripartite Evolutionary Game Analysis 探索老年社区改造项目中的利益相关者:三方进化博弈分析
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188016
Li Guo, Ren-Jye Dzeng, Shuya Hao, Chaojie Zhang, Shuang Zhang, Liyaning Tang
Renovating aging housing is a critical project at the grassroots of social governance and a significant aspect of public welfare. However, renovation processes often encounter difficulties due to conflicts among muti-level stakeholders, influenced by multiple factors. This paper investigates the stakeholders involved in Elderly Community Retrofit Projects (ECRPs), categorizing them into three primary groups: government organizations, renovation enterprises, and elderly families. Through the study of evolutionary game models, it was found that bounded rational actors continually adjust their optimal strategies in response to environmental changes. The government occupies a central role among stakeholders involved in ECRP. During renovation processes, governments and enterprises should provide elderly households with material or other welfare subsidies as much as possible to promote their active cooperation and participation. The integrity of enterprises is closely tied to the strength of governmental enforcement measures; hence, governments should establish a unified standard system, clarify regulatory content, and foster the orderly development of ECRPs.
老旧住房翻新是社会治理的一项重要基层工程,也是公共福利的一个重要方面。然而,在改造过程中,由于受到多种因素的影响,多层次的利益相关者之间往往会产生矛盾,从而导致改造工作困难重重。本文研究了老年社区改造项目(ECRPs)中涉及的利益相关者,将其分为三个主要群体:政府组织、改造企业和老年人家庭。通过对演化博弈模型的研究发现,有界理性行动者会根据环境变化不断调整其最优策略。在参与 ECRP 的利益相关者中,政府扮演着核心角色。在改造过程中,政府和企业应尽可能为老年家庭提供物质或其他福利补贴,以促进他们的积极合作和参与。企业的诚信度与政府的执法力度密切相关,因此政府应建立统一的标准体系,明确监管内容,促进 ECRP 的有序发展。
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引用次数: 0
Distribution Characteristics and Genesis Mechanism of Ground Fissures in Three Northern Counties of the North China Plain 华北平原北部三县地裂缝的分布特征和成因机制
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188027
Chao Xue, Mingdong Zang, Zhongjian Zhang, Guoxiang Yang, Nengxiong Xu, Feiyong Wang, Cheng Hong, Guoqing Li, Fujiang Wang
The North China Plain is among the regions most afflicted by ground fissure disasters in China. Recent urbanization has accelerated ground fissure activity in the three counties of the northern North China Plain, posing significant threats to both the natural environment and socioeconomic sustainability. Despite the increased attention, a lack of comprehensive understanding persists due to delayed recognition and limited research. This study conducted field visits and geological surveys across 43 villages and 80 sites to elucidate the spatial distribution patterns of ground fissures in the aforementioned counties. By integrating these findings with regional geological data, we formulated a causative model to explain ground fissure formation. Our analysis reveals a concentration of ground fissures near the Niuxi and Rongxi faults, with the former exhibiting the most extensive distribution. The primary manifestations of ground fissures include linear cracks and patch-shaped collapse pits, predominantly oriented in east-west and north-south directions, indicating tensile failure with minimal vertical displacement. Various factors contribute to ground fissure development, including fault activity, ancient river channel distribution, bedrock undulations, rainfall, and ground settlement. Fault activity establishes a concealed fracture system in shallow geotechnical layers, laying the groundwork for ground fissure formation. Additionally, the distribution of ancient river channels and bedrock undulations modifies regional stress fields, further facilitating ground fissure emergence. Rainfall and differential ground settlement serve as triggering mechanisms, exposing ground fissures at the surface. This research offers new insights into the causes of ground fissures in the northern North China Plain, providing crucial scientific evidence for sustaining both the natural environment and the socio-economic stability of the region.
华北平原是中国遭受地裂缝灾害最严重的地区之一。近年来的城市化进程加速了华北平原北部三县的地裂缝活动,对自然环境和社会经济的可持续发展构成了重大威胁。尽管受到越来越多的关注,但由于认识滞后和研究有限,人们仍然缺乏全面的了解。本研究对 43 个村庄、80 个地点进行了实地考察和地质调查,以阐明上述县域的地裂缝空间分布模式。通过将这些发现与区域地质数据相结合,我们建立了一个解释地裂缝形成的成因模型。分析结果表明,地裂缝主要集中在牛溪断层和荣溪断层附近,其中牛溪断层分布最广。地裂缝的主要表现形式包括线性裂缝和斑块状塌陷坑,主要呈东西向和南北向分布,显示出拉伸破坏,垂直位移极小。地裂缝的形成有多种因素,包括断层活动、古河道分布、基岩起伏、降雨和地面沉降。断层活动在浅层岩土层中形成了隐蔽的断裂系统,为地裂缝的形成奠定了基础。此外,古河道和基岩起伏的分布改变了区域应力场,进一步促进了地裂缝的出现。降雨和不同的地面沉降成为触发机制,使地表裂缝暴露出来。这项研究为了解华北平原北部地裂缝的成因提供了新的视角,为维持该地区的自然环境和社会经济稳定提供了重要的科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of Forest Management on the Sustainability of Community Areas in Northern Inland Portugal: A Simulated Case Study Assessment 森林管理对葡萄牙北部内陆社区可持续性的影响:模拟案例研究评估
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188006
André Sandim, Dalila Araújo, Teresa Fonseca, Maria Emília Silva
The northern inland region of Portugal has experienced significant population decline due to the exodus of younger generations and an aging population. This has led to the abandonment of traditional activities in these territories, contributing to territorial abandonment, degradation of local economic conditions, increased social vulnerability, and a heightened risk of rural fires. The presence of communal lands, known as “baldios”, is an important facilitator for implementing actions that revitalize local villages, making them more attractive to the community. Forests, which are abundant in the baldios of northern inland Portugal, have the potential to generate environmental, social, and economic value through carbon sequestration, job creation, population stabilization, and wealth generation in the villages. However, the viability of this asset as a driver for sustainable development depends on the forest management model implemented. This case study aims to demonstrate that different forest management models have varied impacts on sustainability indicators, particularly economic and environmental sustainability. Based on naturally regenerated forests in the Carvalhelhos baldio in the Tâmega Valley region, data were collected to simulate in software four management scenarios, varying the number (0 to 4) and age of thinnings until the final cut. The simulation allowed for the calculation of the following economic indicators: Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Net Profitability Index (NPI), as well as environmental indicators related to carbon capture and accumulation, such as Gross Carbon Accumulation, Net Carbon Accumulation, Carbon accumulated in dead and suppressed trees, and carbon balance per management model. The simulations indicate that, for the studied area, Scenario 2, which involves only one thinning, yielded the highest total wood volume (cubic meters per hectare) over the cycle, making it the most suitable for biomass production. Meanwhile, Scenario 4, with three thinnings, showed the best results for individual volume (cubic meters per tree), making it more suitable for producing higher-value logs. Scenario 5 presented the best economic results and carbon capture. In all simulations, Scenario 1 showed the worst performance in the analyzed indicators. It was found that the indicators varied among the studied crop plans, highlighting that the adoption of a silvicultural regime depends on the forest characteristics, objectives, exploitation conditions, and local population sensitivity to regional priorities.
由于年轻一代外流和人口老龄化,葡萄牙北部内陆地区人口大幅减少。这导致这些地区的传统活动被遗弃,造成土地荒芜、当地经济条件恶化、社会脆弱性增加以及农村火灾风险上升。被称为 "baldios "的公有土地的存在是实施振兴当地村庄行动的重要促进因素,使其对社区更具吸引力。在葡萄牙北部内陆的 "baldios "地区,森林资源丰富,通过碳固存、创造就业机会、稳定人口和为村庄创造财富,有可能产生环境、社会和经济价值。然而,这一资产作为可持续发展驱动力的可行性取决于所实施的森林管理模式。本案例研究旨在证明,不同的森林管理模式对可持续发展指标,尤其是经济和环境的可持续发展具有不同的影响。基于塔梅加山谷地区 Carvalhelhos baldio 的自然再生林,我们收集了相关数据,并通过软件模拟了四种管理方案,即改变疏伐次数(0 至 4 次)和疏伐年龄,直至最后一次疏伐。通过模拟,可以计算出以下经济指标:内部收益率 (IRR)、净现值 (NPV) 和净利润率指数 (NPI),以及与碳捕获和积累相关的环境指标,如总碳积累、净碳积累、枯死和被抑制树木的碳积累,以及每个管理模式的碳平衡。模拟结果表明,在研究区域内,方案 2 只涉及一次疏伐,在整个周期内产生的木材总量(每公顷立方米)最高,因此最适合生产生物质。同时,方案 4(三次间伐)的单株产量(每棵树立方米)最好,因此更适合生产价值更高的原木。方案 5 的经济效益和碳捕获效果最好。在所有模拟中,方案 1 的分析指标表现最差。研究发现,所研究的作物计划的各项指标各不相同,这突出表明,采用哪种造林制度取决于森林特点、目标、开发条件以及当地居民对地区优先事项的敏感性。
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引用次数: 0
Tracking Evapotranspiration Patterns on the Yinchuan Plain with Multispectral Remote Sensing 利用多光谱遥感技术追踪银川平原的蒸散模式
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188025
Junzhen Meng, Xiaoquan Yang, Zhiping Li, Guizhang Zhao, Peipei He, Yabing Xuan, Yunfei Wang
Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component of the hydrological cycle, and it has a decisive impact on the ecosystem balance in arid and semi-arid regions. The Yinchuan Plain, located in the Gobi of Northwest China, has a strong surface ET, which has a significant impact on the regional water resource cycle. However, there is a current lack of high-resolution evapotranspiration datasets and a substantial amount of time is required for long-time series remote sensing evapotranspiration estimation. In order to assess the ET pattern in this region, we obtained the actual ET (ETa) of the Yinchuan Plain between 1987 and 2020 using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Specifically, we used Landsat TM+/OLI remote sensing imagery and the GEE Surface Energy Balance Model (geeSEBAL) to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of ET over different seasons. We then reproduced the interannual variation in ET from 1987 to 2020, and statistically analyzed the distribution patterns and contributions of ET with regard to different land use types. The results show that (1) the daily ETa of the Yinchuan Plain is the highest in the central lake wetland area in spring, with a maximum value of 4.32 mm day−1; in summer, it is concentrated around the croplands and water bodies, with a maximum value of 6.90 mm day−1; in autumn and winter, it is mainly concentrated around the water bodies and impervious areas, with maximum values of 3.93 and 1.56 mm day−1, respectively. (2) From 1987 to 2020, the ET of the Yinchuan Plain showed an obvious upward and downward trend in some areas with significant land use changes, but the overall ET of the region remained relatively stable without dramatic fluctuations. (3) The ETa values for different land use types in the Yinchuan Plain region are ranked as follows: water body > cultivated land > impervious > grassland > bare land. Our results showed that geeSEBAL is highly applicable in the Yinchuan Plain area. It allows for the accurate and detailed inversion of ET and has great potential for evaluating long-term ET in data-scarce areas due to its low meteorological sensitivity, which facilitates the study of the regional hydrological cycle and water governance.
蒸散发(ET)是水文循环的重要组成部分,对干旱和半干旱地区的生态系统平衡具有决定性影响。银川平原地处中国西北戈壁,地表蒸散发强烈,对区域水资源循环有重要影响。然而,目前缺乏高分辨率的蒸散量数据集,且长时间序列遥感蒸散量估算需要大量时间。为了评估该地区的蒸散发模式,我们利用谷歌地球引擎(GEE)平台获取了银川平原 1987-2020 年间的实际蒸散发(ETa)。具体而言,我们利用 Landsat TM+/OLI 遥感图像和 GEE 地表能量平衡模型(geeSEBAL)分析了不同季节的蒸散发空间分布模式。然后,我们再现了 1987 年至 2020 年的蒸散发年际变化,并统计分析了不同土地利用类型的蒸散发分布模式和贡献。结果表明:(1)银川平原的日蒸散发a在春季以中部湖泊湿地区最高,最大值为4.32 mm day-1;夏季主要集中在耕地和水体周围,最大值为6.90 mm day-1;秋冬季主要集中在水体和不透水区周围,最大值分别为3.93和1.56 mm day-1。(2)1987-2020 年,银川平原的蒸散发在部分土地利用变化较大的地区呈明显的上升和下降趋势,但区域整体蒸散发保持相对稳定,未出现剧烈波动。(3)银川平原地区不同土地利用类型的 ETa 值排序为:水体 > 耕地 > 不透水 > 草地 > 裸地。结果表明,geeSEBAL 在银川平原地区具有很强的适用性。它可以对蒸散发进行精确而详细的反演,由于对气象敏感性较低,在数据稀缺地区评估长期蒸散发具有很大的潜力,有利于区域水文循环和水治理的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Interaction Spillover Effect of Tourism Eco-Efficiency and Economic Development 旅游生态效益与经济发展的空间互动溢出效应
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188012
Qi Wang, Qunli Tang, Yingting Guo
Tourism eco-efficiency (TEE) is a pivotal metric for assessing tourism’s sustainability and the balance between human activities and the environment, significantly influencing regional economic growth (RGDP). This research utilizes a comprehensive analytical framework, combining the Super SBM-DEA model, the Malmquist index, and spatial econometric models, to analyze the spatial interplay between TEE and RGDP within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2009 to 2021. The results show that (1) TEE in the YREB exhibits a generally upward trajectory with fluctuations, with upstream and downstream regions consistently outperforming the midstream areas in terms of efficiency; (2) technological progress is identified as the primary driver behind efficiency variations; (3) and there exists a symbiotic relationship between local TEE and RGDP, where the economic prosperity of adjacent regions exerts a competitive pull on local TEE, while the TEE of neighboring areas can slow down local economic growth. The study concludes with strategic recommendations aimed at fostering regional collaborative advancement, offering valuable insights for the sustainable development agenda of nations and regions.
旅游生态效益(TEE)是评估旅游业可持续性以及人类活动与环境平衡的关键指标,对区域经济增长(RGDP)具有重要影响。本研究采用综合分析框架,结合超级 SBM-DEA 模型、Malmquist 指数和空间计量经济模型,分析了 2009 至 2021 年长江经济带(YREB)内旅游生态效率与 RGDP 的空间相互作用。结果表明:(1) 长江经济带的技术经济效率总体上呈现波动上升的轨迹,上游和下游地区的效率始终优于中游地区;(2) 技术进步被认为是效率变化背后的主要驱动力;(3) 当地的技术经济效率与 RGDP 之间存在共生关系,相邻地区的经济繁荣会对当地的技术经济效率产生竞争拉动作用,而相邻地区的技术经济效率则会减缓当地的经济增长。研究最后提出了旨在促进区域协同进步的战略建议,为国家和地区的可持续发展议程提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Ensemble Learning Algorithms for Solar Radiation Prediction in Santo Domingo: Measurements and Evaluation 圣多明各太阳辐射预测的集合学习算法:测量与评估
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188015
Francisco A. Ramírez-Rivera, Néstor F. Guerrero-Rodríguez
Solar radiation is a fundamental parameter for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology. Reliable solar radiation prediction has become valuable for designing solar PV systems, guaranteeing their performance, operational efficiency, safety in operations, grid dispatchment, and financial planning. However, high quality ground-based solar radiation measurements are scarce, especially for very short-term time horizons. Most existing studies trained machine learning (ML) models using datasets with time horizons of 1 h or 1 day, whereas very few studies reported using a dataset with a 1 min time horizon. In this study, a comprehensive evaluation of nine ensemble learning algorithms (ELAs) was performed to estimate solar radiation in Santo Domingo with a 1 min time horizon dataset, collected from a local weather station. The ensemble learning models evaluated included seven homogeneous ensembles: Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), adaptive gradient boosting (AGB), gradient boosting (GB), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), light gradient boosting (LGBM), histogram-based gradient boosting (HGB); and two heterogeneous ensembles: voting and stacking. RF, ET, GB, and HGB were combined to develop voting and stacking ensembles, with linear regression (LR) being adopted in the second layer of the stacking ensemble. Six technical metrics, including mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), relative root mean squared error (rRMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and coefficient of determination (R2), were used as criteria to determine the prediction quality of the developed ensemble algorithms. A comparison of the results indicates that the HGB algorithm offers superior prediction performance among the homogeneous ensemble learning models, while overall, the stacking ensemble provides the best accuracy, with metric values of MSE = 3218.27, RMSE = 56.73, rRMSE = 12.700, MAE = 29.87, MAPE = 10.60, and R2 = 0.964.
太阳辐射是太阳能光伏(PV)技术的基本参数。可靠的太阳辐射预测对于太阳能光伏系统的设计、性能保证、运行效率、运行安全、电网调度和财务规划都非常重要。然而,高质量的地面太阳辐射测量数据非常稀缺,尤其是在非常短的时间跨度内。大多数现有研究都使用时间跨度为 1 小时或 1 天的数据集来训练机器学习(ML)模型,而使用时间跨度为 1 分钟的数据集的研究报告却寥寥无几。在这项研究中,对九种集合学习算法(ELAs)进行了综合评估,利用从当地气象站收集的 1 分钟时间跨度数据集估算圣多明各的太阳辐射。评估的集合学习模型包括七个同质集合:随机森林(RF)、额外树(ET)、自适应梯度提升(AGB)、梯度提升(GB)、极端梯度提升(XGB)、光梯度提升(LGBM)、基于直方图的梯度提升(HGB);以及两个异构集合:投票和堆叠。RF、ET、GB 和 HGB 被组合用于开发投票和堆叠集合,堆叠集合的第二层采用线性回归(LR)。六项技术指标,包括均方误差(MSE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、相对均方根误差(rRMSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和决定系数(R2),被用作确定所开发的集合算法预测质量的标准。结果比较表明,在同质集合学习模型中,HGB 算法的预测性能更优,而总体而言,堆叠集合的准确性最好,其指标值为 MSE = 3218.27、RMSE = 56.73、rRMSE = 12.700、MAE = 29.87、MAPE = 10.60 和 R2 = 0.964。
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引用次数: 0
Deformation, Seepage, and Energy Characteristics of Gas-Containing Coal Rocks under Complex Stress Paths 复杂应力路径下含气煤岩的变形、渗流和能量特征
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188001
Dongming Zhang, Xingfeng Mao, Zhenglin Guo, Jiabo Geng
The exploitation and utilization of coal resources are closely related to sustainable social and economic development. To uncover the deformation and seepage patterns of coal on the mining process, this study devised a new stress program with simultaneous changes in axial and confining pressures, then performed coal seepage experiments at various gas pressures. The results show that the residual deformation exhibited a stepwise change, the relative residual deformation at the same level decreased gradually, and the increase in gas pressure led to a reduction in residual deformation. In each stress grade, the absolute permeability damage rate increased gradually, while the relative permeability damage rate decreased with the number of cycles, and the growth of gas pressure could decrease the permeability damage rate. The higher gas pressure led to a lower average energy dissipation ratio at each stress level and increased the rate of growth of elastic energy before destruction of the specimens. A higher gas pressure led to a quicker rate of change in damage variables at high stress levels. The findings have implications for the effective mining and sustainable development of coal resources.
煤炭资源的开发利用与社会经济的可持续发展密切相关。为揭示煤炭在开采过程中的变形和渗流规律,本研究设计了轴向压力和圈闭压力同步变化的新应力程序,并在不同瓦斯压力下进行了煤炭渗流实验。结果表明,残余变形呈阶梯状变化,同一水平的相对残余变形逐渐减小,瓦斯压力的增加导致残余变形减小。在各应力等级中,绝对渗透破坏率逐渐增加,而相对渗透破坏率随着循环次数的增加而降低,气体压力的增加可降低渗透破坏率。气体压力越高,各应力等级的平均耗能率越低,试样破坏前的弹性能量增长速度越快。气体压力越高,高应力水平下的破坏变量变化率越快。研究结果对有效开采和可持续开发煤炭资源具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Ghost Gear in the Gulf of Gabès (Tunisia): An Urgent Need for a Conservation Code of Conduct 加贝斯湾(突尼斯)的幽灵渔具:制定保护行为守则的迫切需要
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188003
Wiem Boussellaa, Mohamed Nejmeddine Bradai, Hamed Mallat, Samira Enajjar, Bechir Saidi, Imed Jribi
The Gulf of Gabès, located off the southern coast of Tunisia, is a region of significant ecological and economic importance, yet it faces a growing threat from abandoned, lost, or otherwise discarded fishing gear, commonly known as ghost gear. This paper addresses the urgent need for a comprehensive conservation code of conduct to mitigate the impacts of ghost gear on marine ecosystems and local communities. Drawing on data and insights from the Life MedTurtles and MedBycatch projects, as well as consultations with local stakeholders, we propose a set of principles and guidelines tailored to the specific socio-economic and political context of Tunisia. Our findings indicate that ghost gear not only endangers marine biodiversity but also affects the livelihoods of local fishers and the sustainability of the region’s fishing industry. The proposed code of conduct emphasizes the roles of government, local communities, and non-governmental organizations in implementing effective management strategies. We also explore the alignment of the proposed measures with existing international laws and policies, ensuring no conflicts arise while reinforcing global conservation efforts. This paper concludes by highlighting the feasibility of the proposed code within the Tunisian context, identifying potential challenges and opportunities for its implementation. Our recommendations aim to foster a collaborative approach to managing ghost gear, contributing to the long-term sustainability of the Gulf of Gabès and serving as a model for similar regions worldwide.
加贝斯湾位于突尼斯南部沿海,是一个具有重要生态和经济意义的地区,但它却面临着被遗弃、丢失或以其他方式丢弃的渔具(俗称 "幽灵渔具")所带来的日益严重的威胁。本文探讨了制定全面保护行为准则的迫切需要,以减轻幽灵渔具对海洋生态系统和当地社区的影响。根据生命 MedTurtles 和 MedBycatch 项目的数据和见解,以及与当地利益相关者的磋商,我们提出了一套适合突尼斯特定社会经济和政治背景的原则和指导方针。我们的研究结果表明,幽灵渔具不仅危害海洋生物多样性,还影响当地渔民的生计和该地区渔业的可持续性。拟议的行为准则强调了政府、当地社区和非政府组织在实施有效管理战略中的作用。我们还探讨了建议措施与现有国际法律和政策的协调问题,以确保在加强全球保护工作的同时不会产生冲突。本文最后强调了建议的守则在突尼斯背景下的可行性,并指出了其实施过程中可能遇到的挑战和机遇。我们的建议旨在促进以合作的方式管理幽灵渔具,为加贝斯湾的长期可持续发展做出贡献,并为全球类似地区树立典范。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Factors Affecting the Accuracy of MFD Construction in Multisource Complex Data Scenarios 多源复杂数据场景中影响多功能数据集构建准确性的因素分析
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188018
Rongrong Hong
The macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD), as a model depicting the correlation between traffic flow parameters at the network level, offers a new way to understand regional traffic state using derived traffic flow data from detectors directly. The accuracy of MFD construction is directly related to factors such as the type of detectors, their distribution, and their quantity within the road network. Understanding these influencing factors and mechanisms is crucial for enhancing the reliability of MFD-based applications such as congestion pricing and threshold control. Present investigations on factors that affect MFD construction’s accuracy have frequently been confined to sensitivity analysis of single-source data and individual influencing factors such as the penetration rate. However, the accuracy of MFD is influenced by a multitude of factors, including the spatial distribution equilibrium, penetration rate, and coverage rate of traffic flow detection equipment. Despite this, this paper utilized the Q-paramics simulation software V6.8.1 to acquire simulated data and employed the orthogonal experimental method from statistics to explore the impact mechanisms of factors on the accuracy of MFD construction. The results of the case study demonstrated that when the penetration rate reaches 20%, the error remains approximately around 10%; once the coverage rate surpasses 45%, the errors stabilize at around 10%. This study provides practical guidance for traffic management and planning decisions aimed at promoting sustainable development through the application of MFD in real-world road networks.
宏观基本图(MFD)是一种描述路网层面交通流参数之间相关性的模型,它为直接使用从检测器获得的交通流数据来了解区域交通状态提供了一种新方法。构建 MFD 的准确性与路网中探测器的类型、分布和数量等因素直接相关。了解这些影响因素和机制对于提高基于 MFD 的应用(如拥堵定价和阈值控制)的可靠性至关重要。目前,对影响多频数据采集系统建设准确性的因素的研究往往局限于对单源数据和个别影响因素(如渗透率)的敏感性分析。然而,多频段数据采集的准确性受到多种因素的影响,包括交通流检测设备的空间分布均衡性、渗透率和覆盖率。尽管如此,本文还是利用 Q-paramics 仿真软件 V6.8.1 获取了模拟数据,并采用统计学中的正交实验法,探讨了各种因素对多频段数据采集精度的影响机制。案例研究结果表明,当渗透率达到 20% 时,误差保持在 10% 左右;当覆盖率超过 45% 时,误差稳定在 10% 左右。本研究为交通管理和规划决策提供了实用指导,旨在通过在现实世界的道路网络中应用多功能模型促进可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
The Era of Digital Transition in the Prism of the Existential Threat of Job Loss: Corporate Social Responsibility 从失业的现实威胁看数字化转型时代:企业社会责任
IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/su16188019
Irina Shestakova
This article explores the question of the rate of digital progress in the context of the labour market. Specific features of the current situation are discussed: the temporality of socio-technological transformations, which is becoming less and less compatible with the harmonious development of man and society; the pace at which machines acquire intelligence; the total devaluation of mental labour; the unresolved issue of the role of man in the world of intelligent machines; and the criticality of the problem of the labour market due to its global nature, social significance and the rate of socio-technological changes. It is emphasised that these circumstances, already in the short term, threaten the sustainable development of global society, whose reactions to the transformation of technological and socio-economic infrastructure are significantly lagging behind. It is concluded that there is an urgent need to strengthen social responsibility, determined by the new ethics of relations between humans and machines with AI, supplemented by the primacy of the dignity of the social role of humans. The authors point out the urgent need to revise ideas about work as the main purpose of a person and about realisation in the profession as the main factor that determines the self-esteem of an individual and his social status.
本文以劳动力市场为背景,探讨了数字化进程的速度问题。文章讨论了当前形势的具体特点:社会技术变革的时间性,它越来越不符合人与社会的和谐发展;机器获取智能的速度;脑力劳动的完全贬值;人在智能机器世界中的作用问题尚未解决;以及劳动力市场问题的关键性,因为它具有全球性、社会重要性和社会技术变革的速度。报告强调,这些情况在短期内已经威胁到全球社会的可持续发展,而全球社会对技术和社会经济基础设施变革的反应明显滞后。结论是,迫切需要加强社会责任,这是由人工智能的人机关系新伦理决定的,并以人类社会角色尊严的首要性作为补充。作者指出,工作是一个人的主要目的,职业的实现是决定一个人的自尊和社会地位的主要因素,这些观念亟需修正。
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