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Twenty years on from smoke-free legislation in Scotland: A secondary analysis of the Scottish Health Survey dataset (1998-2024) examining changes in household smoking rules, and salivary cotinine concentrations among non-smokers. 苏格兰禁烟立法20年来:对苏格兰健康调查数据集(1998-2024)的二次分析,研究了家庭吸烟规则的变化和非吸烟者唾液中可替宁的浓度。
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-25 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/219319
Sean Semple, Catherine Best, Emma Riches, Lynne Morton, Garth Reid, Rebecca Howell, Rachel O'Donnell

Introduction: Scotland introduced comprehensive smoke-free legislation covering most enclosed public spaces in 2006. Twenty years on, this study examines changes in markers of population level exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS).

Methods: A secondary analysis of Scottish Health Survey data between 1998 and 2024 to examine trends in population exposure to SHS and household rules about smoking indoors. The proportions of non-smoking adults who had measurable cotinine in their saliva were calculated for the period 1998-2024. The geometric mean (GM) concentrations of cotinine levels were calculated using Tobit regression. Data from 2012-2024 on self-reported smoking rules for the home were analyzed.

Results: Salivary cotinine expressed as a GM fell from 0.464 ng/mL (95% CI: 0.444-0.485) in 1998 to 0.020 ng/mL (95% CI: 0.015-0.028) in 2024: a reduction of 95.7%. The percentage of non-smoking adults who had no measurable cotinine in their saliva increased by six-fold between 1998 (12.5%) and 2024 (77.6%). Most of the change occurred in the immediate aftermath of smoke-free legislation, with both metrics of population exposure to SHS demonstrating little evidence of change between 2011 and 2024. The proportion of households that are smoke-free has increased from 75.2% in 2012 to 90.2% in 2024 but is now ten times more common in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived.

Conclusions: Scotland has sustained large reductions in SHS exposure since smoke-free legislation was introduced twenty years ago in 2006. However, progress evident in the years between 2006 and 2011 has not been maintained: there are still nearly one-quarter of non-smoking adults having measurable exposure to SHS on any given day. Smoking in the home has also reduced, but the level of inequality of this measure has doubled between 2012 and 2024. Public health interventions should consider the remaining workplace and home settings where people experience exposure to SHS.

导言:2006年,苏格兰引入了涵盖大多数封闭公共场所的全面无烟立法。二十年来,本研究调查了暴露于二手烟(SHS)人群水平的标志物的变化。方法:对1998年至2024年的苏格兰健康调查数据进行二次分析,以检查人群暴露于二手烟的趋势和室内吸烟的家庭规则。研究人员计算了1998年至2024年期间唾液中可替宁含量可测的非吸烟成年人的比例。采用Tobit回归计算可替宁水平的几何平均浓度(GM)。研究人员分析了2012年至2024年自我报告的家庭吸烟规定数据。结果:唾液可替宁表达为GM,从1998年的0.464 ng/mL (95% CI: 0.444-0.485)下降到2024年的0.020 ng/mL (95% CI: 0.015-0.028),减少了95.7%。唾液中未检测到可替宁的非吸烟成年人的比例在1998年(12.5%)至2024年(77.6%)期间增加了6倍。大多数变化发生在无烟立法之后,2011年至2024年期间,人口接触二手烟的两个指标几乎没有变化的证据。无烟家庭的比例从2012年的75.2%增加到2024年的90.2%,但在最贫困地区,无烟家庭的比例是最贫困地区的10倍。结论:自20年前的2006年引入无烟立法以来,苏格兰的二手烟暴露量大幅下降。然而,2006年至2011年期间取得的明显进展并没有保持下去:仍有近四分之一的非吸烟成年人在任何一天都有可测量的二手烟暴露。家庭吸烟也有所减少,但这项指标的不平等程度在2012年至2024年间翻了一番。公共卫生干预措施应考虑到人们接触到二手卫生服务的剩余工作场所和家庭环境。
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引用次数: 0
Multiphase optimization implementation strategy for tobacco cessation interventions in primary care clinics: A cluster-randomized type 3 hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial. 初级保健诊所戒烟干预的多阶段优化实施策略:一项集群随机3型混合有效性实施试验。
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-24 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/217143
Jiangyun Chen, Jiao Yang, Siyuan Liu, Wenjun He, Xueying Chen, Yiyuan Cai, Guangyu Tong, Haozheng Zhou, Huanyuan Luo, Lingzi Luo, Dong Xu

Brief verbal intervention for smoking cessation (BISC) is an evidence-based practice proven to be effective and cost-efficient, yet its implementation in primary healthcare (PHC) clinics in China is currently inadequate. Developing and evaluating multifaceted implementation strategies are crucial to translating such evidence-based practices into routine clinical care. This study protocol outlines a rigorous, multi-phase approach to identifying and testing the most effective strategies for BISC implementation. This is a two-phase study utilizing the Multiphase Optimization Strategy (MOST). The first phase, which has been completed, involved using a scoping review, stakeholder consultations, and a Best-Worst Scaling (BWS) online survey to systematically identify and define four key implementation strategies. The second phase is a cluster-randomized 2×2×2 factorial trial conducted in primary healthcare institutions in Guangdong province, China, from January 2026 to December 2026. Eligible participants are clinicians providing primary healthcare services. Clusters will be randomly assigned, and outcome assessors and data analysts will be blinded to allocation. Data collection includes unannounced standardized patient (USP) visits, questionnaires, interviews, and telephone follow-ups, with outcomes assessed six months after the endline. The study's outcomes are categorized into a primary aim (implementation outcomes) and a secondary aim (effectiveness outcomes). This protocol outlines the utilization of the MOST framework to customize the optimized combination of implementation techniques for BISC within the local context. By using a factorial design, the study could unpack the black box of multi-component interventions and identify which specific components are most effective and efficient. This approach is expected to provide a valuable methodological paradigm for advancing implementation science in low- and middle-income countries.

Clinical trial registration: The study is registered on the official website of Chinese Clinical Trials.

Identifier: ChiCTR2600115994.

Abbreviations: BISC: brief verbal intervention for smoking cessation, PHC: primary healthcare, CFIR: Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research, BWS: best-worst scaling, MOST: Multiphase Optimization Strategy, USP: unannounced standardized patient, PSU: primary sampling unit, SSU: secondary sampling unit, PPS: probability proportional to size, DSMB: Data and Safety Monitoring Board, IOF: Implementation Outcomes Framework, PSAT: Program Sustainability Assessment Tool, PRESS: Provider Report of Sustainment Scale, NPT: Normalization Process Theory, EBP: evidence-based practice.

简短口头干预戒烟(BISC)是一种基于证据的实践,已被证明是有效且具有成本效益的,但其在中国初级卫生保健(PHC)诊所的实施目前尚不充分。制定和评估多方面的实施战略对于将此类循证实践转化为常规临床护理至关重要。本研究方案概述了一种严格的多阶段方法,以确定和测试BISC实施的最有效策略。这是一个利用多阶段优化策略(MOST)的两阶段研究。第一阶段已完成,包括使用范围审查、利益攸关方磋商和最佳最差规模(BWS)在线调查,以系统地确定和确定四项关键实施战略。第二阶段是一项聚类随机2×2×2析因试验,于2026年1月至2026年12月在中国广东省的初级卫生保健机构进行。合格的参与者是提供初级卫生保健服务的临床医生。分组将被随机分配,结果评估者和数据分析师将不知道分配情况。数据收集包括未通知的标准化患者(USP)访问、问卷调查、访谈和电话随访,并在结束后6个月评估结果。研究结果分为主要目标(实施结果)和次要目标(有效性结果)。该协议概述了MOST框架的使用,以在本地上下文中定制BISC实现技术的优化组合。通过使用析因设计,该研究可以打开多成分干预措施的黑箱,并确定哪些特定成分是最有效和最有效的。这种方法有望为在低收入和中等收入国家推进实施科学提供一种有价值的方法范例。临床试验注册:本研究在中国临床试验官网注册。标识符:ChiCTR2600115994。缩写:BISC:戒烟简短口头干预,PHC:初级保健,CFIR:实施研究综合框架,BWS:最佳最差尺度,MOST:多阶段优化策略,USP:未公布的标准化患者,PSU:主要抽样单位,SSU:次要抽样单位,PPS:与大小成比例的概率,DSMB:数据和安全监测委员会,IOF:实施结果框架,PSAT:项目可持续性评估工具,PRESS:维持量表提供者报告、NPT:规范化过程理论、EBP:循证实践。
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引用次数: 0
A pilot stratified cluster randomized trial of school-based e-cigarette and other tobacco product use prevention for Pacific Island youths: An evaluation of the Fuetsan Manhoben curriculum. 太平洋岛屿青少年预防电子烟和其他烟草产品使用的分层随机试验:对Fuetsan Manhoben课程的评价。
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-24 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/218296
Francis Dalisay, Scott K Okamoto, Yoshito Kawabata, Thaddeus A Herzog, Pallav Pokhrel

Introduction: E-cigarette use among young adolescents in Guam, and potentially other regions of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), is markedly higher than among similarly aged adolescents in the general US population. The objective was to test the pilot version of a school-based e-cigarette and other tobacco product curriculum, named Fuetsan Manhoben, on outcomes related to e-cigarette use among Guam middle school students.

Methods: The intervention involved 4 video-based, culturally tailored lessons delivered in the classroom by health educators. A stratified cluster-randomized design was used to assign 8 public middle schools to either the intervention or the control condition. Six classrooms in each school participated in the study. Participants (n=269) in the intervention condition received the 4-lesson curriculum, whereas participants (n=269) in the control condition did not receive any intervention. Participants in both conditions provided data at pretest, post-test (4 weeks later), and at follow-up at 3 months. The current analyses pertain only to e-cigarette-related outcomes. Wald tests were utilized to determine the statistical significance of fixed effects within the negative binomial and logistic regression frameworks.

Results: At immediate post-test, the intervention did not have statistically significant effects on openness to using e-cigarettes (incidence rate ratio, IRR=0.79; 95% CI: 0.42-1.49, p>0.05), e-cigarette use initiation (OR=O.96; 95% CI: 0.42-2.19, p>0.05), or past-30-day e-cigarette use (IRR=0.90; 95% CI: 0.77-1.06, p>0.05). At follow-up at 3 months, the intervention also did not have statistically significant effects on e-cigarette use initiation (OR=0.70; 95% CI: 0.34-1.45, p>0.05) or past-30-day e-cigarette use (IRR=0.94; 95% CI: 0.82-1.08, p>0.05). However, findings indicated that the intervention reduced openness to using e-cigarettes at follow-up at 3 months (IRR=0.49; 95% CI: 0.28-0.86, p<0.01). That is, being assigned to the intervention condition was associated with 51% decrease in openness to using e-cigarettes at follow-up at 3 months.

Conclusions: Four lessons delivered over 4 weeks may not produce immediate short-term preventive effects, except potentially reducing e-cigarette use susceptibility at follow-up at 3 months. Further research is warranted to examine whether expanding the content and duration of the curriculum may result in stronger, more durable effects. Also, future studies should examine whether increasing the follow-up to 6-12 months might capture delayed preventive effects that were not detectable within the shortened, follow-up at 3 months in the current study.

Clinical trial registration: The study is registered on the official website of ClinicalTrials.gov.

Identifier: ID NCT05037656.

关岛以及美国附属太平洋岛屿(USAPI)其他地区青少年使用电子烟的比例明显高于美国总人口中同龄青少年的比例。其目的是测试以学校为基础的电子烟和其他烟草产品课程的试点版本,名为Fuetsan Manhoben,旨在了解关岛中学生使用电子烟的相关结果。方法:干预包括由健康教育工作者在课堂上提供的4节基于视频的文化定制课程。采用分层聚类随机设计将8所公立中学分为干预组和对照组。每个学校有6个教室参与了这项研究。干预组(n=269)接受了4节课的课程,对照组(n=269)没有接受任何干预。两种情况下的参与者在测试前、测试后(4周后)和3个月随访时提供数据。目前的分析只涉及与电子烟相关的结果。使用Wald检验来确定负二项回归和逻辑回归框架内固定效应的统计显著性。结果:在即时测试后,干预对使用电子烟的开放性(发病率比,IRR=0.79; 95% CI: 0.42-1.49, p>0.05)、开始使用电子烟(OR= 0.96; 95% CI: 0.42-2.19, p>0.05)或过去30天使用电子烟(IRR=0.90; 95% CI: 0.77-1.06, p>0 0.05)没有统计学意义上的显著影响。在随访3个月时,干预对开始使用电子烟(OR=0.70; 95% CI: 0.34-1.45, p>0.05)或过去30天使用电子烟(IRR=0.94; 95% CI: 0.82-1.08, p>0.05)也没有统计学意义上的显著影响。然而,研究结果表明,干预降低了随访3个月时使用电子烟的开放性(IRR=0.49; 95% CI: 0.28-0.86)。结论:4周内提供的4节课可能不会产生立即的短期预防效果,除了可能降低随访3个月时使用电子烟的易感性。进一步的研究是有必要的,以检验扩大课程的内容和时间是否会产生更强、更持久的效果。此外,未来的研究应该检查将随访时间增加到6-12个月是否可以捕捉到在当前研究中缩短的3个月随访中无法检测到的延迟预防效果。临床试验注册:本研究在clinicaltrials .gov.官网注册:ID NCT05037656。
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引用次数: 0
Improving legislation is a necessity: A multi-method quantitative analysis of tobacco sponsorship and publicity in China. 完善立法势在必行:中国烟草赞助与宣传的多方法定量分析。
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-24 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/217354
Shuyue Sun, Yimeng Wu, Yixin Tang, Fan Wang

Introduction: Although the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) mandates a comprehensive ban, tobacco sponsorship persists as a significant challenge in China. Focusing on this issue, this study aims to describe, identify, and understand the amounts, publicity, and influencing mechanism of tobacco sponsorship in China.

Methods: This multi-method quantitative study collected data from the China Tobacco Yearbooks for provincial tobacco sponsorship and production data, the Chinalawinfo Open Platform for anti-smoking regulations, and four tobacco industry websites for publicity materials, covering 2015 to 2022. Using ArcMap, STATA, and Python, we integrated spatial autocorrelation analysis, topic modeling, content analysis, and statistical modeling.

Results: Tobacco sponsorship amounts nationwide plummeted in 2017, followed by a gradual recovery until another decline in 2021. Spatial analysis revealed significant positive spatial autocorrelation from 2016-2020 and in 2022 (Global Moran's I>0.1, p<0.05). Sponsorship publicity predominantly centered on four topics: natural and health disaster response, tobacco product production and manufacturing, poverty alleviation and policy response, and customer service and brand building. OLS regression indicated that smoke-free law efficacy was negatively associated with sponsorship amounts (β= -0.149; 95% CI: -0.238 - -0.060; p<0.01), while cigarette production showed a positive association (β=0.001; 95% CI: 0.001-0.002; p<0.01). These associations remained robust after controlled for government-industry connection and production chain linkage. Mediation analysis further suggested that 'Mentioning tobacco farmers' served as a significant negative mediator for the impact of SLE (indirect effect= -0.351; 95% CI: -0.603 - -0.099; p<0.01) and a significant positive mediator for cigarette production (indirect effect=0.001; 95% CI: 0.000-0.001; p<0.05), government-industry connection (indirect effect=0.138; 95% CI: 0.084-0.192; p<0.01), and production chain linkage (indirect effect=0.338; 95% CI: 0.255-0.420; p<0.01). Robustness checks using heteroscedasticity-consistent and province-clustered standard errors confirmed the stability of these findings.

Conclusions: Tobacco sponsorship is fundamentally profit-driven because it mainly funds and publicizes components of the production chain, particularly tobacco farmers. As its severity may be constrained by anti-tobacco legislation, future studies are needed to continuously monitor these evolving strategies, thereby accumulating sufficient evidence to support the introduction and implementation of comprehensive, nationwide legislation that clearly defines and penalizes all sponsorship activities in China.

导言:尽管《世界卫生组织烟草控制框架公约》(FCTC)要求全面禁止,但烟草赞助在中国仍然是一个重大挑战。针对这一问题,本研究旨在描述、识别和理解中国烟草赞助的数量、宣传和影响机制。方法:采用多方法定量研究,收集2015 - 2022年《中国烟草年鉴》各省烟草赞助和生产数据、中国禁烟法规开放平台和4个烟草行业网站的宣传资料。利用ArcMap、STATA和Python,我们集成了空间自相关分析、主题建模、内容分析和统计建模。结果:全国烟草赞助金额在2017年大幅下降,随后逐渐恢复,直到2021年再次下降。空间分析显示,2016-2020年和2022年的烟草赞助具有显著的正空间自相关性(Global Moran’s I b>.1)。结论:烟草赞助从根本上是利润驱动的,因为它主要资助和宣传生产链的各个环节,尤其是烟农。由于其严重程度可能受到反烟草立法的限制,未来的研究需要持续监测这些不断发展的战略,从而积累足够的证据,支持在中国引入和实施全面的全国性立法,明确界定和惩罚所有赞助活动。
{"title":"Improving legislation is a necessity: A multi-method quantitative analysis of tobacco sponsorship and publicity in China.","authors":"Shuyue Sun, Yimeng Wu, Yixin Tang, Fan Wang","doi":"10.18332/tid/217354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/217354","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Although the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) mandates a comprehensive ban, tobacco sponsorship persists as a significant challenge in China. Focusing on this issue, this study aims to describe, identify, and understand the amounts, publicity, and influencing mechanism of tobacco sponsorship in China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This multi-method quantitative study collected data from the China Tobacco Yearbooks for provincial tobacco sponsorship and production data, the Chinalawinfo Open Platform for anti-smoking regulations, and four tobacco industry websites for publicity materials, covering 2015 to 2022. Using ArcMap, STATA, and Python, we integrated spatial autocorrelation analysis, topic modeling, content analysis, and statistical modeling.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Tobacco sponsorship amounts nationwide plummeted in 2017, followed by a gradual recovery until another decline in 2021. Spatial analysis revealed significant positive spatial autocorrelation from 2016-2020 and in 2022 (Global Moran's I>0.1, p<0.05). Sponsorship publicity predominantly centered on four topics: natural and health disaster response, tobacco product production and manufacturing, poverty alleviation and policy response, and customer service and brand building. OLS regression indicated that smoke-free law efficacy was negatively associated with sponsorship amounts (β= -0.149; 95% CI: -0.238 - -0.060; p<0.01), while cigarette production showed a positive association (β=0.001; 95% CI: 0.001-0.002; p<0.01). These associations remained robust after controlled for government-industry connection and production chain linkage. Mediation analysis further suggested that 'Mentioning tobacco farmers' served as a significant negative mediator for the impact of SLE (indirect effect= -0.351; 95% CI: -0.603 - -0.099; p<0.01) and a significant positive mediator for cigarette production (indirect effect=0.001; 95% CI: 0.000-0.001; p<0.05), government-industry connection (indirect effect=0.138; 95% CI: 0.084-0.192; p<0.01), and production chain linkage (indirect effect=0.338; 95% CI: 0.255-0.420; p<0.01). Robustness checks using heteroscedasticity-consistent and province-clustered standard errors confirmed the stability of these findings.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Tobacco sponsorship is fundamentally profit-driven because it mainly funds and publicizes components of the production chain, particularly tobacco farmers. As its severity may be constrained by anti-tobacco legislation, future studies are needed to continuously monitor these evolving strategies, thereby accumulating sufficient evidence to support the introduction and implementation of comprehensive, nationwide legislation that clearly defines and penalizes all sponsorship activities in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"24 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13012016/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147515061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluation of sleep apnea syndrome risk in patients attending a smoking cessation outpatient clinic. 参加戒烟门诊的患者睡眠呼吸暂停综合征风险评估。
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-23 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/218371
Meryem Betos Koçak, Derya Aydin

Introduction: Smoking is a major public health issue with undeniable adverse effects on human health. It is associated with a wide range of diseases, including cancer, cardiovascular conditions, pulmonary disorders, and neurological diseases. Among these, sleep disturbances and respiratory tract disorders, particularly Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS), are of particular concern. This study aims to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and the OSAS risk scores.

Methods: Our study is a prospective, pre-post, single-arm observational study with repeated measures, conducted on patients who successfully quit smoking (n=117). The Epworth Sleepiness Scale, Berlin Questionnaire, and STOP-BANG Questionnaire were utilized to assess the risk of OSAS. OSAS risk scores were obtained from patients at their initial visit to the smoking cessation clinic and again six months after smoking cessation.

Results: Our study was completed with 117 patients. According to the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, high daytime sleepiness was reported in 36 patients, while quitting smoking reduced this number to 30 patients. According to the Berlin Questionnaire, the number of high-risk patients, which was 47, decreased to 28 after smoking cessation. According to the STOP-BANG Questionnaire, the rate of patients considered to be at high risk for OSAS was 45.3%, but it decreased to 35.9% after smoking cessation.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that the number of high-risk patients, as determined by OSAS risk scales, decreased after smoking cessation. Our study provides indications that the risk of OSAS may decrease with smoking cessation.

吸烟是一个重大的公共卫生问题,对人类健康有不可否认的不良影响。它与多种疾病有关,包括癌症、心血管疾病、肺部疾病和神经系统疾病。其中,睡眠障碍和呼吸道疾病,特别是阻塞性睡眠呼吸暂停综合征(OSAS),是特别值得关注的。本研究旨在探讨戒烟与OSAS风险评分之间的关系。方法:我们的研究是一项前瞻性、前后、单臂观察性研究,对成功戒烟的患者(n=117)进行了重复测量。采用Epworth嗜睡量表、Berlin问卷、STOP-BANG问卷评估osaas风险。OSAS风险评分是在患者首次到戒烟诊所就诊时获得的,并在戒烟六个月后再次获得。结果:117例患者完成研究。根据爱普沃斯嗜睡量表,36名患者报告白天嗜睡,而戒烟将这一数字减少到30名患者。根据柏林问卷调查,戒烟后高危患者的数量从47人减少到28人。根据STOP-BANG问卷,被认为是OSAS高危人群的比例为45.3%,戒烟后下降到35.9%。结论:我们的研究表明,由OSAS风险量表确定的高危患者数量在戒烟后减少。我们的研究提供了一些迹象,表明OSAS的风险可能随着戒烟而降低。
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引用次数: 0
Smoking-attributable ischemic heart disease burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2036: A retrospective analysis and forecasting study. 1990 - 2021年中国吸烟导致的缺血性心脏病负担及2036年预测:回顾性分析和预测研究
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-21 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/217625
Dingwen Xu, Zhe Yang, Weijuan Yao, Xifu Wang

Introduction: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) remains a leading global health challenge, with smoking identified as a key modifiable risk factor. China, with its high smoking prevalence and aging population, faces a growing burden of smoking-related IHD. This study evaluates the disease burden of smoking-related IHD in China from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends to inform targeted interventions.

Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 (1990-2021) and the cross-sectional baseline survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, Wave 1, 2011-2012), we analyzed trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Joinpoint regression identified temporal trends, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model forecast disease burden up to 2036. The CHARLS analysis included participants aged ≥45 years with complete smoking and health records. Multivariable logistic regression assessed the association between smoking status and heart disease likelihood in CHARLS participants.

Results: CHARLS data revealed that former smokers had an 84% higher likelihood of heart disease than never smokers (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=1.84; 95% CI: 1.50-2.25). GBD analysis showed that China's age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for smoking-related IHD surpassed global and US levels after 2005, with males bearing a significantly higher burden than females. Joinpoint regression identified key turning points, with male ASMR rising until 2010 before declining slightly, while female indicators consistently improved. ARIMA projections suggest male ASMR will remain high (39.01; 95% UI: 22.69-55.33) by 2036, indicating persistent challenges.

Conclusions: The burden of smoking-related IHD in China exceeds the global average and reveals significant gender disparities, with a worsening burden for males and improvement for females. There is a critical need for more effective smoking control measures aimed at the male population to tackle this major public health issue.

缺血性心脏病(IHD)仍然是一个主要的全球健康挑战,吸烟被确定为一个关键的可改变的危险因素。中国吸烟率高,人口老龄化,与吸烟相关的IHD负担越来越重。本研究评估了1990年至2021年中国吸烟相关IHD的疾病负担,并预测了未来趋势,为有针对性的干预提供信息。方法:利用全球疾病负担(GBD) 2021(1990-2021)和中国健康与退休纵向研究(CHARLS, Wave 1, 2011-2012)的横断面基线调查数据,我们分析了死亡率、残疾调整生命年(DALYs)、残疾生活年(YLDs)和生命损失年(YLLs)的趋势。连接点回归确定了时间趋势,自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测了到2036年的疾病负担。CHARLS分析纳入年龄≥45岁且有完整吸烟和健康记录的参与者。多变量logistic回归评估了CHARLS参与者吸烟状况与心脏病可能性之间的关系。结果:CHARLS数据显示,前吸烟者患心脏病的可能性比从不吸烟者高84%(调整优势比,AOR=1.84; 95% CI: 1.50-2.25)。GBD分析显示,2005年后,中国吸烟相关IHD的年龄标准化死亡率(ASMR)超过了全球和美国的水平,男性的负担明显高于女性。接合点回归确定了关键的转折点,男性的ASMR上升到2010年,然后略有下降,而女性指标持续改善。ARIMA预测显示,到2036年,男性ASMR仍将保持高位(39.01;95% UI: 22.69-55.33),这表明挑战将持续存在。结论:中国吸烟相关性IHD患者负担超过全球平均水平,且性别差异显著,男性负担加重,女性负担改善。迫切需要针对男性人口采取更有效的吸烟控制措施,以解决这一重大的公共卫生问题。
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引用次数: 0
Estimated pulse wave velocity, waist-to-height ratio, and risk of cardiometabolic multimorbidity: A secondary dataset analysis of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). 估计脉搏波速度、腰高比和心脏代谢多病的风险:中国健康与退休纵向研究(CHARLS)的二次数据集分析
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-20 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/216379
ZhiYing Fei, LingLing Bian, ShuLin Lu, ChunQiao Wu

Introduction: Obesity, smoking, and atherosclerosis increase the risk of developing various cardiometabolic diseases. The estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) is a new indicator of arterial stiffness. However, the relationship between ePWV, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), smoking, and cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) remains unclear.

Methods: The study is a secondary dataset analysis of CHARLS, which included 8414 participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study conducted between 2011 and 2018. The ePWV was calculated using the mean blood pressure and age. Cox proportional hazards models were used to explore the relationship between ePWV, WHtR, and CMM in both smoking and non-smoking populations. Additionally, we also employed restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis and mediation analysis to investigate the relationship between ePWV, WHtR, and CMM. A p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results: During the 7-year follow-up period, 1545 participants (18.36%) developed new-onset CMM. The RCS model exhibited a U-shaped relationship between WHtR and CMM incidence, with a positive correlation when WHtR exceeded 0.5. Cox regression analysis revealed that ePWV and WHtR were independent predictors of CMM in both smoking and non-smoking populations. Additionally, ePWV significantly mediated the association between WHtR and CMM risk.

Conclusions: Our findings indicate that ePWV and WHtR are associated with increased CMM risk. Early detection of ePWV and WHtR, combined with smoking cessation, may help identify high-risk individuals and provide a basis for future preventive research.

肥胖、吸烟和动脉粥样硬化会增加患各种心脏代谢疾病的风险。估计脉搏波速度(ePWV)是一种新的动脉刚度指标。然而,ePWV、腰高比(WHtR)、吸烟和心脏代谢多病(CMM)之间的关系尚不清楚。方法:本研究是CHARLS的二次数据集分析,该数据集包括来自2011年至2018年中国健康与退休纵向研究的8414名参与者。ePWV采用平均血压和年龄计算。采用Cox比例风险模型探讨吸烟人群和非吸烟人群ePWV、WHtR和CMM之间的关系。此外,我们还采用限制三次样条(RCS)分析和中介分析来研究ePWV、WHtR和CMM之间的关系。结果:在7年的随访期间,1545名参与者(18.36%)出现新发CMM。RCS模型显示WHtR与CMM发病率呈u型关系,当WHtR大于0.5时呈正相关。Cox回归分析显示,ePWV和WHtR是吸烟和非吸烟人群CMM的独立预测因子。此外,ePWV显著介导了WHtR与CMM风险之间的关联。结论:我们的研究结果表明ePWV和WHtR与CMM风险增加有关。早期发现ePWV和WHtR,并结合戒烟,可能有助于识别高危人群,为今后的预防研究提供基础。
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引用次数: 0
Exercise-induced abnormal recovery of heart rate and ventricular repolarization parameters among smokers without known cardiovascular disease: A cross-sectional study. 无已知心血管疾病的吸烟者运动诱导的心率和心室复极参数异常恢复:一项横断面研究
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-19 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/216383
Ayhan Cosgun, Huseyin Oren

Introduction: Smoking is a major preventable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is strongly associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study investigated the relationship between the heart rate recovery index (HRR-I), T peak-end recovery index (Tp-eR-I), and QT interval recovery index (QTR-I) in smokers compared with non-smokers.

Methods: This cross-sectional study, conducted in Bilkent City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey, between May 2017 and June 2025, included 150 healthy smokers (120 males, 30 females) and 123 healthy non-smokers (97 males, 26 females). Smoking data are self-reported. All participants underwent symptom-limited treadmill exercise testing using the Bruce protocol. Heart rate (HR), QT, and Tp-e intervals were measured at baseline, peak exercise, and during recovery periods. HRR-I was calculated as the difference between peak HR and HR at the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd minutes of recovery. Tp-eR-I and QTR-I were calculated as the differences between baseline values and those obtained during peak, 1st, 2nd and 3rd minutes recovery times.

Results: Smokers exhibited significantly lower HRR-I values at the 1st [18.6 ± 7.1 vs 24.2 ± 6.9, p<0.001; 17.9 (95% CI: 12.9-22.9)], 2nd [27.4 ± 7.3 vs 33.1 ± 7.1, p<0.001; 10.7 (95% CI 7.3-14.1)], and 3rd minutes [33.8 ± 7.9 vs 39.5 ± 8.3, p<0.001; 13.4 (95% CI: 9.6-17.2)] of recovery compared with non-smokers. Tp-eR-I and QTR-I values were significantly higher in smokers [Tp-eR-I: 7.8 ± 2.6 vs 5.2 ± 2.1, p<0.001; 18 (95% CI: 12-24)] [QTR-I: 24.5 ± 6.3 vs 18.9 ± 5.8, p<0.001; 12 (95% CI: 6-18)]. Smoking intensity was positively associated with Tp-eR-I (r=0.41, p<0.001) and QTR-I (r=0.36, p<0.001), and negatively associated with HRR-I (r= -0.39, p<0.001).

Conclusions: Cigarette smoking impairs autonomic regulation as reflected by reduced HRR-I and abnormal ventricular repolarization recovery, shown by increased Tp-eR-I and QTR-I. These findings suggest that smoking disrupts sympathetic-parasympathetic balance and myocardial repolarization, potentially explaining the higher incidence of arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death among smokers.

吸烟是心血管疾病的主要可预防的危险因素,与心源性猝死(SCD)密切相关。本研究探讨了吸烟者与非吸烟者心率恢复指数(HRR-I)、T峰端恢复指数(Tp-eR-I)和QT间期恢复指数(QTR-I)的关系。方法:本横断面研究于2017年5月至2025年6月在土耳其安卡拉的比尔肯特市医院进行,包括150名健康吸烟者(120名男性,30名女性)和123名健康非吸烟者(97名男性,26名女性)。吸烟数据是自我报告的。所有参与者都采用布鲁斯方案进行了症状限制的跑步机运动测试。在基线、运动高峰和恢复期测量心率(HR)、QT间期和Tp-e间期。hrr - 1计算为恢复后第1、2和3分钟的峰值HR与HR之差。Tp-eR-I和QTR-I作为基线值与高峰、第1、第2和第3分钟恢复时间获得的值之间的差值计算。结果:吸烟者在第1期的HRR-I值明显降低[18.6±7.1 vs 24.2±6.9]。结论:吸烟损害自主调节,表现为HRR-I降低和心室复极恢复异常,表现为Tp-eR-I和QTR-I增加。这些发现表明,吸烟破坏了交感-副交感平衡和心肌复极,这可能解释了吸烟者心律失常和心源性猝死发生率较高的原因。
{"title":"Exercise-induced abnormal recovery of heart rate and ventricular repolarization parameters among smokers without known cardiovascular disease: A cross-sectional study.","authors":"Ayhan Cosgun, Huseyin Oren","doi":"10.18332/tid/216383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/216383","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Smoking is a major preventable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and is strongly associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study investigated the relationship between the heart rate recovery index (HRR-I), T peak-end recovery index (Tp-eR-I), and QT interval recovery index (QTR-I) in smokers compared with non-smokers.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This cross-sectional study, conducted in Bilkent City Hospital, Ankara, Turkey, between May 2017 and June 2025, included 150 healthy smokers (120 males, 30 females) and 123 healthy non-smokers (97 males, 26 females). Smoking data are self-reported. All participants underwent symptom-limited treadmill exercise testing using the Bruce protocol. Heart rate (HR), QT, and Tp-e intervals were measured at baseline, peak exercise, and during recovery periods. HRR-I was calculated as the difference between peak HR and HR at the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd minutes of recovery. Tp-eR-I and QTR-I were calculated as the differences between baseline values and those obtained during peak, 1st, 2nd and 3rd minutes recovery times.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Smokers exhibited significantly lower HRR-I values at the 1st [18.6 ± 7.1 vs 24.2 ± 6.9, p<0.001; 17.9 (95% CI: 12.9-22.9)], 2nd [27.4 ± 7.3 vs 33.1 ± 7.1, p<0.001; 10.7 (95% CI 7.3-14.1)], and 3rd minutes [33.8 ± 7.9 vs 39.5 ± 8.3, p<0.001; 13.4 (95% CI: 9.6-17.2)] of recovery compared with non-smokers. Tp-eR-I and QTR-I values were significantly higher in smokers [Tp-eR-I: 7.8 ± 2.6 vs 5.2 ± 2.1, p<0.001; 18 (95% CI: 12-24)] [QTR-I: 24.5 ± 6.3 vs 18.9 ± 5.8, p<0.001; 12 (95% CI: 6-18)]. Smoking intensity was positively associated with Tp-eR-I (r=0.41, p<0.001) and QTR-I (r=0.36, p<0.001), and negatively associated with HRR-I (r= -0.39, p<0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Cigarette smoking impairs autonomic regulation as reflected by reduced HRR-I and abnormal ventricular repolarization recovery, shown by increased Tp-eR-I and QTR-I. These findings suggest that smoking disrupts sympathetic-parasympathetic balance and myocardial repolarization, potentially explaining the higher incidence of arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death among smokers.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"24 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13002330/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147499853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Association of smoking with serum uric acid levels, hyperuricemia, and gout based on the 7th to 9th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: A secondary dataset analysis based on a cross-sectional study. 吸烟与血清尿酸水平、高尿酸血症和痛风的关系基于第七至第九次韩国国家健康和营养调查:基于横断面研究的二次数据集分析
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-18 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/217841
Sunmi Kim

Introduction: Previous studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship of smoking with gout and hyperuricemia. This study aimed to investigate the associations of smoking with serum uric acid levels, hyperuricemia, and gout.

Methods: This study was a pooled analysis of secondary data from the 7th to 9th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2016-2022). We analyzed 29516 participants (12626 for gout analysis) aged ≥19 years. Smoking status (exposure) and doctor-diagnosed gout (primary outcome) were assessed through self-reported questionnaires, while serum uric acid levels (secondary outcome) were measured from blood samples. Multiple linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations, adjusting for potential confounders.

Results: In females, current smokers had significantly higher serum uric acid levels than never smokers (adjusted mean difference=0.16 mg/dL; 95% CI: 0.08-0.24; p<0.001). Current smoking in females was also significantly associated with increased odds of both hyperuricemia (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.11-2.00; p=0.008) and self-reported doctor-diagnosed gout (AOR=22.07; 95% CI: 6.66-73.09; p<0.001) compared with never smoking. In contrast, no significant associations were observed in males; the adjusted mean difference in serum uric acid levels between current and never smokers was -0.01 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.08-0.05; p=0.668), and the AOR for gout was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.62-1.59; p=0.984).

Conclusions: The results suggest that smoking is associated with elevated serum uric acid levels and an increased prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout in women but not in men.

简介:以前的研究报道了与吸烟与痛风和高尿酸血症的关系相矛盾的结果。本研究旨在探讨吸烟与血清尿酸水平、高尿酸血症和痛风的关系。方法:本研究对第七次至第九次韩国国民健康与营养检查调查(2016-2022)的二次资料进行汇总分析。我们分析了年龄≥19岁的29516名参与者(痛风分析12626名)。吸烟状况(暴露)和医生诊断的痛风(主要结果)通过自我报告的问卷进行评估,而血清尿酸水平(次要结果)通过血液样本进行测量。进行多重线性和逻辑回归分析来评估相关性,调整潜在混杂因素。结果:在女性中,当前吸烟者的血清尿酸水平明显高于从不吸烟者(调整后的平均差异=0.16 mg/dL; 95% CI: 0.08-0.24)。结论:结果表明,吸烟与女性血清尿酸水平升高、高尿酸血症和痛风患病率增加有关,但与男性无关。
{"title":"Association of smoking with serum uric acid levels, hyperuricemia, and gout based on the 7th to 9th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: A secondary dataset analysis based on a cross-sectional study.","authors":"Sunmi Kim","doi":"10.18332/tid/217841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/217841","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Previous studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship of smoking with gout and hyperuricemia. This study aimed to investigate the associations of smoking with serum uric acid levels, hyperuricemia, and gout.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study was a pooled analysis of secondary data from the 7th to 9th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2016-2022). We analyzed 29516 participants (12626 for gout analysis) aged ≥19 years. Smoking status (exposure) and doctor-diagnosed gout (primary outcome) were assessed through self-reported questionnaires, while serum uric acid levels (secondary outcome) were measured from blood samples. Multiple linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations, adjusting for potential confounders.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In females, current smokers had significantly higher serum uric acid levels than never smokers (adjusted mean difference=0.16 mg/dL; 95% CI: 0.08-0.24; p<0.001). Current smoking in females was also significantly associated with increased odds of both hyperuricemia (adjusted odds ratio, AOR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.11-2.00; p=0.008) and self-reported doctor-diagnosed gout (AOR=22.07; 95% CI: 6.66-73.09; p<0.001) compared with never smoking. In contrast, no significant associations were observed in males; the adjusted mean difference in serum uric acid levels between current and never smokers was -0.01 mg/dL (95% CI: -0.08-0.05; p=0.668), and the AOR for gout was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.62-1.59; p=0.984).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The results suggest that smoking is associated with elevated serum uric acid levels and an increased prevalence of hyperuricemia and gout in women but not in men.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"24 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13005604/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147499836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter attributable to smoking in the G20: Trends from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2022 to 2050: A secondary dataset analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. 20国集团吸烟引起的心房颤动和心房扑动负担:1990年至2021年的趋势和2022年至2050年的预测:2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)的二次数据集分析
IF 1.9 4区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2026-03-18 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.18332/tid/216109
Wanyue Yang, Guoping Ma, Hai Wang, Wenlu Zheng, Xuexin Cui, Ze Wang, Wenjie Liang

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL) are major contributors to the cardiovascular disease burden in G20 countries. However, comprehensive assessments of smoking-attributable AF/AFL burden across the G20 remain limited. The objective of this study was to evaluate temporal trends in the AF/AFL burden attributable to smoking in G20 countries from 1990 to 2021 and to project future trends through 2050.

Methods: This secondary analysis used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Smoking-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) for AF/AFL were extracted for G20 countries between 1990 and 2021. Trends were analyzed by age, sex, and country, and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ES) models were applied to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2050.

Results: In 2021, smoking-attributable AF/AFL accounted for 321761.89 DALYs (95% UI: 187788.89-476327.05) in the G20. Overall age-standardized rates remained relatively stable from 1990 to 2021. Japan showed a declining trend, whereas Saudi Arabia and Indonesia exhibited increasing burdens. Males consistently experienced higher burdens than females, and the highest absolute burden occurred in individuals aged 65-89 years. Projections indicate that from 2022 to 2050, absolute numbers of deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs attributable to smoking-related AF/AFL will continue to rise, particularly among males, despite stable or slightly declining age-standardized rates.

Conclusions: Although age-standardized smoking-attributable AF/AFL rates in G20 countries have remained largely stable, absolute burdens are expected to increase substantially due to population growth and ageing. Pronounced sex- and country-level heterogeneity highlights the need for sustained and targeted tobacco control and cardiovascular prevention strategies.

前言:心房颤动和心房扑动(AF/AFL)是G20国家心血管疾病负担的主要贡献者。然而,对二十国集团吸烟导致的AF/AFL负担的全面评估仍然有限。本研究的目的是评估1990年至2021年G20国家吸烟导致的AF/AFL负担的时间趋势,并预测到2050年的未来趋势。方法:这项二次分析使用了全球疾病负担(GBD) 2021研究的数据。提取1990年至2021年间G20国家AF/AFL的吸烟导致的残疾调整生命年(DALYs)、死亡、残疾生活年(YLDs)和生命损失年(YLLs)。按年龄、性别和国家分析趋势,并计算估计的年百分比变化(EAPCs)。采用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)和指数平滑(ES)模型预测2022 - 2050年的疾病负担。结果:2021年,G20国家吸烟归因AF/AFL占321761.89 DALYs (95% UI: 187788.89-476327.05)。从1990年到2021年,总体年龄标准化率保持相对稳定。日本的负担呈下降趋势,而沙特阿拉伯和印度尼西亚的负担则呈上升趋势。男性的负担始终高于女性,65-89岁人群的绝对负担最高。预测表明,从2022年到2050年,尽管年龄标准化率稳定或略有下降,但与吸烟有关的AF/AFL的绝对死亡人数、平均寿命、平均寿命和残疾寿命将继续上升,尤其是在男性中。结论:尽管G20国家中年龄标准化吸烟导致的AF/AFL率基本保持稳定,但由于人口增长和老龄化,绝对负担预计将大幅增加。明显的性别和国家层面的异质性突出了需要持续和有针对性的烟草控制和心血管预防战略。
{"title":"Burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter attributable to smoking in the G20: Trends from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2022 to 2050: A secondary dataset analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021.","authors":"Wanyue Yang, Guoping Ma, Hai Wang, Wenlu Zheng, Xuexin Cui, Ze Wang, Wenjie Liang","doi":"10.18332/tid/216109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/216109","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter (AF/AFL) are major contributors to the cardiovascular disease burden in G20 countries. However, comprehensive assessments of smoking-attributable AF/AFL burden across the G20 remain limited. The objective of this study was to evaluate temporal trends in the AF/AFL burden attributable to smoking in G20 countries from 1990 to 2021 and to project future trends through 2050.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This secondary analysis used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Smoking-attributable disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), deaths, years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) for AF/AFL were extracted for G20 countries between 1990 and 2021. Trends were analyzed by age, sex, and country, and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ES) models were applied to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2050.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, smoking-attributable AF/AFL accounted for 321761.89 DALYs (95% UI: 187788.89-476327.05) in the G20. Overall age-standardized rates remained relatively stable from 1990 to 2021. Japan showed a declining trend, whereas Saudi Arabia and Indonesia exhibited increasing burdens. Males consistently experienced higher burdens than females, and the highest absolute burden occurred in individuals aged 65-89 years. Projections indicate that from 2022 to 2050, absolute numbers of deaths, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs attributable to smoking-related AF/AFL will continue to rise, particularly among males, despite stable or slightly declining age-standardized rates.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Although age-standardized smoking-attributable AF/AFL rates in G20 countries have remained largely stable, absolute burdens are expected to increase substantially due to population growth and ageing. Pronounced sex- and country-level heterogeneity highlights the need for sustained and targeted tobacco control and cardiovascular prevention strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":23202,"journal":{"name":"Tobacco Induced Diseases","volume":"24 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13005605/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147499824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Tobacco Induced Diseases
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