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AN APPROACH TO SOLVE MOTORAIL TRANSPORTATION LOADING LAYOUT OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM: THE CHINA CASE 一种解决机动车运输装车布局优化问题的方法——以中国为例
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-10-03 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.17066
Wencheng Huang, B. Shuai
In this paper, we formulate a cost and safety oriented approach to optimize the motorail transport car loading layout optimization problem. The model has 2 objective functions, one maximizes the wagon loading weight utilization rate, and another minimizes the gravitational center height after loading the cars on the wagons. The calculation results show that: the heaviest cars should be loaded in the middle of the decks, the cars weight loaded on both sides should be gradually reduced; the total weight of cars loaded on lower deck should be larger than the total weight of cars loaded on the upper deck.
本文提出了一种以成本和安全为导向的优化方法来求解铁路运输车装车布局优化问题。该模型具有2个目标函数,一个是使货车装载重量利用率最大化,另一个是使货车装载后重心高度最小。计算结果表明:最重的车辆应装载在桥面中间,两侧装载的车辆重量应逐渐减小;下甲板装载的汽车总重量应大于上甲板装载的汽车总重量。
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引用次数: 0
A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW ON PNEUMATIC GRIPPING DEVICES FOR INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS 工业机器人气动夹持装置的系统综述
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.17110
Roman Mykhailyshyn, V. Savkiv, P. Maruschak, Jing Xiao
Based on the literature review, the article presents the analysis of approaches to classifying Gripping Devices (GDs) of Industrial Robots (IRs) and substantiates the need for systematising Pneumatic GDs (PGDs). The authors propose a classification of well-known PGDs, in which the holding force of the Manipulated Object (MO) is formed under the action of gas-dynamic effects. A general classification of PGDs with features common to all PGD subtypes is proposed: PGD type; contact type; object base type; object centring type; specialisation type; working range; availability of additional devices; the number of grippers; type of control; type of attachment to the robot. Each feature of the general PGD classification, which affects PGD characteristics, is analysed, and a usage example is given. The advantages of each feature included in the general PGD classification are also considered. For a more detailed classification, PGDs are divided into the following types: Vacuum GDs (VGDs), Jet GDs (JGDs), Combined PGDs (CPGDs). For VGD, the main distinguishing features are highlighted, which are the vacuum creation method, effect/actuator, stepwise nozzle, suction cup type, suction material type. The main distinguishing features of JGDs include using a jet of compressed air, the shape of nozzle elements, the number of nozzle elements, the direction of gas flows, type of surface of the MO. The main distinguishing features of CPGD include the type of combination and function performed. The main features are given for each classification, and the advantages/disadvantages of the most typical representatives of GDs are described. The authors identify the main development directions for GDs at the present stage of robotisation of production processes, medicine, military and space technology, etc. Based on the analysis and systematisation of literature data, the authors define the main promising areas of research that will be actively developed soon: optimisation of grippers’ design, flexible grippers, additive manufacturing (3D-printing) when creating grippers, collaborative grippers, modular grippers, universal grippers, grippers based on new materials, new effects in grippers, bionic and medical grippers, simulation and rendering of the gripping process.
在文献综述的基础上,分析了工业机器人抓取装置(GDs)的分类方法,并论证了气动抓取装置(PGDs)系统化的必要性。作者提出了一种已知的被控物体的分类方法,其中被控物体的保持力是在气体动力效应的作用下形成的。提出了具有所有PGD亚型共同特征的PGD的一般分类:PGD型;联系类型;对象基类型;对象中心类型;专门化类型;工作范围;额外设备的可用性;抓手的数量;控制类型;机器人的附件类型。分析了一般PGD分类中影响PGD特性的各个特征,并给出了应用实例。还考虑了一般PGD分类中包含的每个特征的优点。对于更详细的分类,PGDs分为以下几种类型:真空GDs (VGDs),射流GDs (JGDs),组合式PGDs (CPGDs)。VGD的主要特点是:真空产生方式、效果/致动器、步进式喷嘴、吸盘型、吸料型。jgd的主要特征包括使用压缩空气射流、喷嘴元件的形状、喷嘴元件的数量、气流方向、MO表面类型。CPGD的主要特征包括组合类型和所执行的功能。给出了每种分类的主要特征,并描述了最典型的GDs代表的优点/缺点。作者指出了生产过程自动化、医学、军事和空间技术等方面现阶段GDs的主要发展方向。基于文献数据的分析和系统化,作者定义了即将积极发展的主要有前途的研究领域:抓手设计的优化、柔性抓手、制造抓手时的增材制造(3d打印)、协作抓手、模块化抓手、通用抓手、基于新材料的抓手、抓手的新效果、仿生和医疗抓手、抓手过程的模拟和渲染。
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引用次数: 6
BEST–WORST METHOD TO PRIORITIZE INDICATORS EFFECTIVE IN MAKING LOGISTICS SYSTEMS MORE SUSTAINABLE IN FAST-MOVING CONSUMER GOODS INDUSTRY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 在发展中国家快速消费品行业中,优先考虑有效的物流系统可持续发展指标的最佳最差方法
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-22 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.17449
Mahsa Pishdar, F. Ghasemzadeh, J. Antuchevičienė
Logistics systems constitute the backbone of international trade. For developing countries, establishment of sustainable logistics systems reduces costs, and makes supply chains strong to become able to compete. Without setting indicators for sustainable logistics, it is not possible to understand what policies are necessary for success. Logistics systems situations become worse in especial industries such as Fast-Moving Consuming Goods (FMCG) industry that are facing observable challenges such as old-fashioned goods or product corruption. The objective of this paper is to determine a set of indicators, which can be helpful in enhancement of sustainable logistics systems in developing countries. An initial set of indicators is determined through literature review and justified by asking experts’ opinions who have experience of management in logistics systems in developing countries such as Iran and Afghanistan, especially in logistics management in FMCG industry. The indicators are prioritized using Best–Worst Method (BWM), which is a newly introduced decision-making model. Results of prioritization of finalized dimensions and indicators by use of BWM show that “Governance” has the highest importance among dimensions and “management commitment to sustainability” is the most important indicator among all indicators. The results are applicably acceptable as we can see in business circumstances that only when managers believe in perusing sustainability principles as an important factor under each type of economic circumstance, an efficient vision will be set. Risk management has gained the least weight in this study. Based on experts’ opinions, if policies and procedures are set and performed correctly, risks will be less probable by themselves. The results help mangers in assignment of limited budgets to improvement projects related to each indicator.
物流系统是国际贸易的支柱。对于发展中国家来说,建立可持续的物流系统可以降低成本,并使供应链变得强大,从而具有竞争力。如果不设定可持续物流的指标,就不可能了解成功所需要的政策。特别是在快速消费品(FMCG)行业,物流系统的状况变得更加糟糕,这些行业面临着过时商品或产品腐败等明显的挑战。本文的目的是确定一套有助于加强发展中国家可持续物流系统的指标。最初的一套指标是通过文献综述确定的,并通过询问在伊朗和阿富汗等发展中国家的物流系统管理经验的专家的意见来证明,特别是在快速消费品行业的物流管理方面。采用Best-Worst Method (BWM)对指标进行排序,这是一种新引入的决策模型。利用BWM对最终维度和指标进行优先排序的结果表明,“治理”在所有维度中具有最高的重要性,“管理对可持续性的承诺”是所有指标中最重要的指标。结果是可以接受的,因为我们可以在商业环境中看到,只有当管理者相信在每一种经济环境下,将可持续性原则作为一个重要因素时,才会建立一个有效的愿景。风险管理在这项研究中获得的权重最小。根据专家的意见,如果正确制定和执行政策和程序,风险本身就不太可能发生。结果有助于管理者分配有限的预算,以改进与每个指标相关的项目。
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引用次数: 0
MULTI-OBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION OF AMBULANCE LOCATION IN ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE 智利安托法加斯塔救护车位置的多目标优化
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-19 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.17073
Carlos Olivos, Hernan Caceres
In this paper, we solved an ambulance location problem with a multi-objective framework considering the case of the study of Emergency Medical Service (EMS) of Antofagasta (Chile). Nowadays, in Antofagasta, the ambulances are located in bases that are not necessarily the optimal location achieving an estimated 67% of coverage under the 8 min not meeting the requirements dictated by the Chilean Ministry of Health. We used a multi-objective model considering mean response time, maximum response time, and the demand not covered. The model is solved using an iterative ε-constraint method to generate a Pareto set of efficient solutions. We considered historical data from the years 2015 and 2016 to generate the demand and emergency nodes with a clustering algorithm. The results show improvements on all criteria of the multi-objective model, where we highlight a potential increment on coverage within 8 min from 67 to 99%. In order to test the new policy in a real setting, a pilot plan is proposed, which reaches 89% of coverage within 8 min.
本文以智利安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)的紧急医疗服务(EMS)为例,采用多目标框架求解救护车定位问题。如今,在安托法加斯塔,救护车位于不一定是最佳位置的基地,在8分钟内的覆盖率估计为67%,未达到智利卫生部规定的要求。我们使用了一个考虑平均响应时间、最大响应时间和未覆盖需求的多目标模型。采用迭代ε-约束方法求解该模型,得到有效解的Pareto集。我们考虑2015年和2016年的历史数据,使用聚类算法生成需求节点和应急节点。结果显示了对多目标模型的所有标准的改进,其中我们强调了8分钟内覆盖率从67到99%的潜在增量。为了在实际环境中测试新政策,提出了一个试点计划,在8分钟内达到89%的覆盖率。
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引用次数: 1
A METHOD TO ESTIMATE TRAFFIC PENETRATION RATES OF COMMERCIAL FLOATING CAR DATA USING SPEED INFORMATION 一种利用速度信息估计商用浮动车数据交通渗透率的方法
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-08-05 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.17069
Oruç Altintaşi, Hediye Tuydes-Yaman, K. Tuncay
Floating Car Data (FCD) are being increasingly used as an alternative traffic data source due to its lower cost and high coverage area. FCD can be obtained by tracking vehicle trajectories individually or by processing multiple tracks anonymously to produce average speed information commercially. For commercial FCD, the spatio-temporal distribution of these vehicles in actual traffic, traffic Penetration Rate (PR) is the most important factor affecting the accuracy of speed estimations, despite the high number of registered vehicles feeding to an FCD provider, denoting the market PR. This study proposes a method for assessing the traffic PR of commercial FCD by evaluating its speed estimation quality compared to Ground Truth (GT) data. GT speed data were employed to generate different levels of traffic PR using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, which resulted in the development of Quality-PR (Q-PR) relations for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as selected Measures of Effectiveness (MoE). Simulation-based FCD results at an urban road segment in Ankara (Turkey) showed that a quality of FCD with traffic PR of 15% or more would improve significantly. Use of the developed Q-PR relations suggested an approximately 5% traffic PR for the commercial FCD speeds at the location.
浮动车数据(FCD)由于其成本低、覆盖面积大等优点,正越来越多地被用作交通数据的替代来源。FCD可以通过单独跟踪车辆轨迹来获得,也可以通过匿名处理多个轨迹来获得平均速度信息。对于商用FCD而言,车辆在实际交通中的时空分布,交通渗透率(traffic Penetration Rate, PR)是影响速度估计准确性的最重要因素,尽管向FCD供应商提供的注册车辆数量很多,即市场PR。本研究提出了一种通过比较Ground Truth (GT)数据的速度估计质量来评估商用FCD交通PR的方法。利用蒙特卡罗(MC)模拟,利用GT速度数据生成不同水平的交通PR,从而建立了平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和均方根误差(RMSE)作为选择的有效性度量(MoE)的质量PR (Q-PR)关系。在土耳其安卡拉的一个城市路段进行的基于仿真的FCD结果表明,交通PR为15%或更高的FCD质量将显著提高。使用已开发的Q-PR关系表明,该位置的商业FCD速度的流量PR约为5%。
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引用次数: 0
PROPOSING A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF BALANCING THE INVENTORY OF MULTI-ZONE BICYCLE SHARING SYSTEMS WITH MOBILE STATIONS AND APPLYING MAINTENANCE CONSTRAINTS 提出了带移动站点的多区域共享单车系统库存平衡的数学模型,并应用了维护约束
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.16720
F. kaveh, H. Shirouyehzad, S. Zolfani, S. Arabzad
Regarding the necessity of developing transportation infrastructures and its increasing importance in urban issues, nowadays in different cities, bicycles are considered the main and sustainable vehicle along with walking and drawing more attention day by day. The case considers highly paramount since preservation of the environment, natural resources, and energy is one of the significant pillars of sustainable development, and urban transportation intensively influences it. Thus, Bicycle Sharing System (BSS) is recognized as an innovative urban transportation option that meets the citizens’ demand for commuting during the day. The BSS can highly affect the level of citizens’ health, and it can be counted as one of the leading health programs whether it’s added to the public transportation system, it can help the culture to be created to use bicycles instead of cars in most of the internal trips, and also it can be so influential in decreasing the air pollution and in the following its harmful effects on health issues. The mathematical model of rebalancing multi-zone BSS with mobile stations and applying maintenance constraints in a static status is considered in this research. The objective function of this research is a single-objective one, which is modeled with the aims of reducing the costs of traveled distances by the tracks within and outside the zones, reducing the costs of intact and defective bicycles transportation within and outside the zones, and eventually, reducing the costs of surplus bicycles depot at the stations. This issue is a multi-product one that includes different types of bicycles and balancing tracks. Computational results confirm the model’s efficiency. Also, sensitivity analysis has been done to prove that the model is affected by both parameters of storage costs of surplus bicycles and transportation costs within and outside the zones.
考虑到发展交通基础设施的必要性及其在城市问题中的重要性,如今在不同的城市,自行车和步行一样被认为是主要的可持续交通工具,并日益受到人们的关注。这个案例非常重要,因为环境、自然资源和能源的保护是可持续发展的重要支柱之一,而城市交通对可持续发展的影响很大。因此,自行车共享系统(BSS)被认为是一种创新的城市交通选择,满足了市民白天通勤的需求。BSS可以高度影响公民的健康水平,它可以算作是一个领先的健康项目,如果它被添加到公共交通系统,它可以帮助创造在大多数国内旅行中使用自行车而不是汽车的文化,它也可以在减少空气污染方面产生如此大的影响,以及它对健康问题的有害影响。本文研究了在静态状态下应用维护约束的多区域BSS移动站再平衡的数学模型。本研究的目标函数为单目标函数,其建模的目的是降低区域内外轨道行驶距离的成本,降低区域内外完好自行车和有缺陷自行车的运输成本,最终降低站点剩余自行车存放的成本。这个问题是一个多产品的问题,包括不同类型的自行车和平衡轨道。计算结果证实了该模型的有效性。通过敏感性分析,证明了模型同时受到剩余自行车存放成本和区域内外运输成本参数的影响。
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引用次数: 1
THE MODELLING OF EMISSIONS EVALUATION AT ASPHALT MIXING PLANT IN HOT RECYCLING 沥青搅拌站热循环排放评价模型
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-06-13 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.17116
Mindaugas Martišius, H. Sivilevičius
Transport industry with its infrastructure sector is one the main sources of GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions. In parallel, this industry has the main part on gross domestic product of a high transport transit countries with a develop road network. Transport infrastructure (TI) must be continuously developed, improved, and carefully maintained accordingly traffic and goods flow with respect to safety and emissions. Renewable resources, such as Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) and energy from sustainable sources are the main accents reducing carbon emissions in the industry. The comparison outlook of different technologies emissions in a Hot-Mix Asphalt (HMA) with RAP production at Asphalt Mixing Plant (AMP) are presented in this paper. CO2 emissions comparison of different RAP additions models and fuel types was analysed. The calculation model was presented for carbon emissions in most critical GHG generated AM production stage as new aggregates and RAP drying and heating.
交通运输业及其基础设施部门是温室气体排放的主要来源之一。与此同时,该行业在国内生产总值中占主要比重较高的运输过境国拥有发达的公路网。交通基础设施(TI)必须不断发展、改进,并相应地精心维护交通和货物流动的安全和排放。再生沥青路面(RAP)等可再生资源和可持续能源是该行业减少碳排放的主要重点。本文介绍了热拌沥青(HMA)与沥青搅拌站RAP生产中不同工艺排放的比较展望。分析了不同RAP添加模式和燃料类型的CO2排放比较。提出了AM生产中最关键的温室气体产生阶段的碳排放计算模型,包括新骨料和RAP干燥和加热。
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引用次数: 1
INVESTIGATION OF SAFETY CONDITIONS IN THE TRANSPORT OF DANGEROUS GOODS BY RAILWAY 铁路危险货物运输安全条件调查
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-05-26 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.16985
N. Slavinskaitė, N. Batarlienė
Safe transport of dangerous goods by railway is an important challenge for both national and international freight transport. The transport of dangerous goods is one of the most demanding transportation technologies. The aim of this article is to assess the conditions for the transport of dangerous goods by railway and to define the main factors, which affect the transport of such goods by railway. Scientific literature was analysed, statistics were provided, and a qualitative survey was conducted. The factors of 3 groupas that have the greatest impact on the safe transport of dangerous goods by railway were studied and identified. The obtained results were processed using the Kendall’s rank correlation method, and the consistency of the expert opinions was clarified using the fit coefficient. Using the medium-distance transformation weights (Average Rank Transformation Into Weight – ARTIW) method, the main normalized subjective weighting factors that most influence the conditions of transport of dangerous goods for safe transport have been identified. The results of the study revealed that the main factors of Group I that have the greatest impact on the accident of dangerous goods by railway, are: complete preparation of the train, driver’s confidence in the safety systems of the locomotive and improper loading of cargo. The most important technical-technological factors of Group II, which have the greatest impact on the accident occurring in the transportation of dangerous goods by railway, are: technical condition of the locomotive, tightness of railway tanks (wagons) and marking of wagons carrying dangerous goods. Key organizational factors for Group III to consider before dangerous goods are transported by railway are: risks related to freight forwarding, identification of chemical properties of freight and driver qualification. The key factors in these three groups can be used to develop models to make the transport of dangerous goods by railway safer and more efficient.
铁路危险货物的安全运输是国内外货物运输面临的重要挑战。危险品运输是要求最高的运输技术之一。本文的目的是评估铁路危险货物运输的条件,并确定影响铁路危险货物运输的主要因素。对科学文献进行分析,提供统计数据,并进行定性调查。对铁路危险货物安全运输影响最大的3类因素进行了研究和识别。对所得结果进行肯德尔秩相关法处理,并用拟合系数澄清专家意见的一致性。采用中距离变换权重(Average Rank transformation Into Weight - ARTIW)方法,确定了对危险品运输条件影响最大的主要归一化主观加权因素,以实现安全运输。研究结果表明,对铁路危险货物事故影响最大的第一类因素主要有:列车准备齐全、驾驶员对机车安全系统的信心和货物装载不当。在铁路危险货物运输中,对发生事故影响最大的第二类技术因素是:机车的技术条件、铁路罐车(车厢)的密封性和载运危险货物的车厢的标志。在危险品通过铁路运输之前,第三组需要考虑的关键组织因素是:与货运代理相关的风险、货物化学性质的识别和驾驶员资格。这三组中的关键因素可以用来开发模型,使铁路危险品运输更安全,更高效。
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引用次数: 1
DEEP NEURAL NETWORK BASED DATA-DRIVEN VIRTUAL SENSOR IN VEHICLE SEMI-ACTIVE SUSPENSION REAL-TIME CONTROL 基于深度神经网络的数据驱动虚拟传感器在汽车半主动悬架实时控制中的应用
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-05-13 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.16919
Paulius Kojis, E. Šabanovič, Viktor Skrickij
This research presents a data-driven Neural Network (NN)-based Virtual Sensor (VS) that estimates vehicles’ Unsprung Mass (UM) vertical velocity in real-time. UM vertical velocity is an input parameter used to control a vehicle’s semi-active suspension. The extensive simulation-based dataset covering 95 scenarios was created and used to obtain training, validation and testing data for Deep Neural Network (DNN). The simulations have been performed with an experimentally validated full vehicle model using software for advanced vehicle dynamics simulation. VS was developed and tested, taking into account the Root Mean Square (RMS) of Sprung Mass (SM) acceleration as a comfort metric. The RMS was calculated for two cases: using actual UM velocity and estimations from the VS as input to the suspension controller. The comparison shows that RMS change is less than the difference threshold that vehicle occupants could perceive. The achieved result indicates the great potential of using the proposed VS in place of the physical sensor in vehicles.
该研究提出了一种基于数据驱动的神经网络(NN)的虚拟传感器(VS),可以实时估计车辆的非簧载质量(UM)垂直速度。UM垂直速度是用于控制车辆半主动悬架的输入参数。建立了涵盖95个场景的广泛模拟数据集,并用于获取深度神经网络(DNN)的训练、验证和测试数据。利用先进的车辆动力学仿真软件,对一个经过实验验证的整车模型进行了仿真。VS的开发和测试,考虑到弹簧质量(SM)加速度的均方根(RMS)作为舒适度量。RMS计算了两种情况:使用实际的UM速度和来自VS的估计作为悬架控制器的输入。对比结果表明,均方根变化小于车辆乘员能感知到的差异阈值。实现的结果表明,在车辆中使用所提出的VS代替物理传感器的巨大潜力。
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引用次数: 2
USING GROWTH CURVES MODEL TO ANALYSE THE PROSPECTS OF CHINA–PAKISTAN OIL AND LNG TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR 运用增长曲线模型对中巴油气运输走廊前景进行了分析
IF 1.7 4区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2022-05-02 DOI: 10.3846/transport.2022.16851
Wencheng Huang, B. Shuai, Yonghui Shen
In order to analysing the oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import and consumption changing trends, the Occurrence Period (OP), Growth Period (GP) and Maturation Period (MP) of oil and LNG import and consumption in China, and studying how the oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends influence the development of China–Pakistan oil and LNG transportation corridor (CPOLTC), in this paper we apply a Growth Curve Model (GCM) based approach to solve the problems mentioned above. First, the Chinese oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends are analysed by applying the GCM. The results show that oil and LNG consumption and import belong to the GP because of the fast industrialization and urbanization development, so the oil and LNG import and consumption demand will increase fast; Then, the External Dependence (ED) is applied to describe the oil and LNG consumption dependence degree in China, the results show that import will remain high ED value, especially for the oil import (over 70%), which means the security of the energy supply chain still remains the central idea of Chin’s energy policies. Finally, the challenges and key issues of CPOLTC is analysed. Challenges are: domestic political struggles and institutional defects in Pakistan make the CPOLTC projects lacking of implementation, security along the corridor, influence and competition from external forces, impacts of western project culture, the comprehensive projects establishment ability in Pakistan, etc. The key issues are: Value Engineering (VE) researches for projects, Chinese element such as project construction, management, standards and specifications, assessment of the projects’ life cycle and so on.
为了分析中国石油和液化天然气(LNG)进口和消费的变化趋势,石油和液化天然气进口和消费的发生期(OP)、成长期(GP)和成熟期(MP),研究石油和液化天然气进口和消费变化趋势如何影响中巴石油和液化天然气运输走廊(CPOLTC)的发展,本文采用基于增长曲线模型(GCM)的方法来解决上述问题。首先,运用GCM分析了中国石油和液化天然气进口和消费的变化趋势。结果表明:由于工业化和城市化的快速发展,石油和液化天然气的消费和进口属于GP,因此石油和液化天然气的进口和消费需求将快速增长;然后,应用外部依存度(ED)来描述中国石油和液化天然气的消费依存度,结果表明,进口仍将保持较高的ED值,特别是石油进口(超过70%),这意味着能源供应链的安全仍然是中国能源政策的中心思想。最后,分析了CPOLTC面临的挑战和关键问题。面临的挑战是:巴基斯坦国内政治斗争和体制缺陷导致中巴经济走廊项目缺乏实施、走廊沿线安全、外部势力的影响和竞争、西方项目文化的影响、巴基斯坦综合项目立项能力等。关键问题是:项目价值工程研究、项目建设、管理、标准规范、项目生命周期评价等中国要素。
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引用次数: 1
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