Pub Date : 2021-12-07DOI: 10.3846/transport.2021.16043
A. Borucka, D. Mazurkiewicz, Eliza Łagowska
Effective planning and optimization of rail transport operations depends on effective and reliable forecasting of demand. The results of transport performance forecasts usually differ from measured values because the mathematical models used are inadequate. In response to this applicative need, we report the results of a study whose goal was to develop, on the basis of historical data, an effective mathematical model of rail passenger transport performance that would allow to make reliable forecasts of future demand for this service. Several models dedicated to this type of empirical data were proposed and selection criteria were established. The models used in the study are: the seasonal naive model, the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model, the exponential smoothing state space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trigonometric trend and seasonal components (TBATS) model, and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The proposed time series identification and forecasting methods are dedicated to the processing of time series data with trend and seasonality. Then, the best model was identified and its accuracy and effectiveness were assessed. It was noticed that investigated time series is characterized by strong seasonality and an upward trend. This information is important for planning a development strategy for rail passenger transport, because it shows that additional investments and engagement in the development of both transport infrastructure and superstructure are required to meet the existing demand. Finally, a forecast of transport performance in sequential periods of time was presented. Such forecast may significantly improve the system of scheduling train journeys and determining the level of demand for rolling stock depending on the season and the annual rise in passenger numbers, increasing the effectiveness of management of rail transport.
{"title":"MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AS AN ELEMENT OF PLANNING RAIL TRANSPORT STRATEGIES","authors":"A. Borucka, D. Mazurkiewicz, Eliza Łagowska","doi":"10.3846/transport.2021.16043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/transport.2021.16043","url":null,"abstract":"Effective planning and optimization of rail transport operations depends on effective and reliable forecasting of demand. The results of transport performance forecasts usually differ from measured values because the mathematical models used are inadequate. In response to this applicative need, we report the results of a study whose goal was to develop, on the basis of historical data, an effective mathematical model of rail passenger transport performance that would allow to make reliable forecasts of future demand for this service. Several models dedicated to this type of empirical data were proposed and selection criteria were established. The models used in the study are: the seasonal naive model, the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model, the exponential smoothing state space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, trigonometric trend and seasonal components (TBATS) model, and the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The proposed time series identification and forecasting methods are dedicated to the processing of time series data with trend and seasonality. Then, the best model was identified and its accuracy and effectiveness were assessed. It was noticed that investigated time series is characterized by strong seasonality and an upward trend. This information is important for planning a development strategy for rail passenger transport, because it shows that additional investments and engagement in the development of both transport infrastructure and superstructure are required to meet the existing demand. Finally, a forecast of transport performance in sequential periods of time was presented. Such forecast may significantly improve the system of scheduling train journeys and determining the level of demand for rolling stock depending on the season and the annual rise in passenger numbers, increasing the effectiveness of management of rail transport.","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79167653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-03DOI: 10.53052/9788366249851.07
Paulina Świerk, E. Macioszek, A. Sobota
{"title":"THE TICKET TARIFF AND DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN THE GÓRNOŚLĄSKA- ZAGŁĘBIOWSKA METROPOLIS","authors":"Paulina Świerk, E. Macioszek, A. Sobota","doi":"10.53052/9788366249851.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53052/9788366249851.07","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86864911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-03DOI: 10.53052/9788366249851.04
W. Mężyk, P. Czech
{"title":"WPŁYW EKRANÓW AKUSTYCZNYCH ORAZ CZYNNIKÓW EKSPLOATACYJNYCH NA ODCZUWALNY KOMFORT JAZDY SAMOCHODEM OSOBOWYM","authors":"W. Mężyk, P. Czech","doi":"10.53052/9788366249851.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53052/9788366249851.04","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80913351","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-03DOI: 10.53052/9788366249851.02
Matúš Lavčák, Pavol Tarbajovský, Michal Puškár
{"title":"DWUPALIWOWY SYSTEM WYSOKOPRĘŻNEGO SAMOCZYNNEGO ZAPŁONU","authors":"Matúš Lavčák, Pavol Tarbajovský, Michal Puškár","doi":"10.53052/9788366249851.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53052/9788366249851.02","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86163221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-03DOI: 10.53052/9788366249851.08
Marieta Šoltésová, Michal Puškár
{"title":"ŚLAD EMISJI POJAZDÓW W ŚRODOWISKU","authors":"Marieta Šoltésová, Michal Puškár","doi":"10.53052/9788366249851.08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53052/9788366249851.08","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76373728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-03DOI: 10.53052/9788366249851.01
A. Kurek, E. Macioszek
Traffic volume varies over time and differs between areas on the city's transport network. Road traffic in specific periods is characterized by similar values, with slight fluctuations. These values in a given area of the transport network in the morning or afternoon peak hours, in off-peak periods on working days in each of these periods, fluctuate around similar values [1]. However, traffic is disrupted, when there are
{"title":"ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON ROAD TRAFFIC ON SELECTED STREET ROUTES IN THE CITY","authors":"A. Kurek, E. Macioszek","doi":"10.53052/9788366249851.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53052/9788366249851.01","url":null,"abstract":"Traffic volume varies over time and differs between areas on the city's transport network. Road traffic in specific periods is characterized by similar values, with slight fluctuations. These values in a given area of the transport network in the morning or afternoon peak hours, in off-peak periods on working days in each of these periods, fluctuate around similar values [1]. However, traffic is disrupted, when there are","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75761183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-03DOI: 10.53052/9788366249851.06
Angela Nowak, E. Macioszek
{"title":"INTERCHANGE NODES IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT - A CASE STUDY ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE CITY OF SOSNOWIEC (POLAND","authors":"Angela Nowak, E. Macioszek","doi":"10.53052/9788366249851.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53052/9788366249851.06","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89877994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-03DOI: 10.53052/9788366249851.05
Mateusz Mika, E. Macioszek
{"title":"PARKING IN PAID PARKING ZONES - OVERVIEW OF THE SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE","authors":"Mateusz Mika, E. Macioszek","doi":"10.53052/9788366249851.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.53052/9788366249851.05","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86497983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-02DOI: 10.3846/transport.2021.15952
S. Lebedevas, N. Lazareva, Paulius Rapalis, Vygintas Daukšys, Tomas Čepaitis
According to the International Council on Combustion Engines (CIMAC) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) statistics, the rational selection of Marine Bunker Fuel (MBF) properties is an effective way to improve operating conditions and energy efficiency of all types of marine Diesel Engines (DEs). The publication presents the results of studies on the influence of heavy and distillate MBF properties on the characteristics of different DE types: high-speed (Caterpillar 3512B, MTU 8V 396TB), medium-speed (SKL VDS 48/42, ChN 26.5/31) ir low-speed (MAN B&W 6S60MC). The aim of work is to form a methodological framework for assessing the influence of marine fuel properties on the energy performance of different types of ship power plants. Numerical methods show that in the case of unfavourable selection of the density and viscosity of marine fuels regulated by the standard ISO 8217:2017, the changes in specific fuel consumption be reach up to 10% low-speed, 4…7% medium-speed, and 2…3% high-speed DEs. As the density varies from light grades to 1010 kg/m3, the change in be is 3…4%. At low viscosity, as the density increases to 1030 kg/m3, the low-speed engine comparative fuel consumption increases by 5%. It is recommended not to use fuel with a density >1010 kg/m3 and a viscosity <300…400 mm2/s. Developed solutions for the rational selection of bunkered marine fuel properties for a specific DE model trough the influence of density and viscosity on fuel injection and combustion characteristics based on multiparametric diagrams of relative fuel consumption change.
{"title":"INFLUENCE OF MARINE FUEL PROPERTIES ON IGNITION, INJECTION DELAY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY","authors":"S. Lebedevas, N. Lazareva, Paulius Rapalis, Vygintas Daukšys, Tomas Čepaitis","doi":"10.3846/transport.2021.15952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/transport.2021.15952","url":null,"abstract":"According to the International Council on Combustion Engines (CIMAC) and International Maritime Organization (IMO) statistics, the rational selection of Marine Bunker Fuel (MBF) properties is an effective way to improve operating conditions and energy efficiency of all types of marine Diesel Engines (DEs). The publication presents the results of studies on the influence of heavy and distillate MBF properties on the characteristics of different DE types: high-speed (Caterpillar 3512B, MTU 8V 396TB), medium-speed (SKL VDS 48/42, ChN 26.5/31) ir low-speed (MAN B&W 6S60MC). The aim of work is to form a methodological framework for assessing the influence of marine fuel properties on the energy performance of different types of ship power plants. Numerical methods show that in the case of unfavourable selection of the density and viscosity of marine fuels regulated by the standard ISO 8217:2017, the changes in specific fuel consumption be reach up to 10% low-speed, 4…7% medium-speed, and 2…3% high-speed DEs. As the density varies from light grades to 1010 kg/m3, the change in be is 3…4%. At low viscosity, as the density increases to 1030 kg/m3, the low-speed engine comparative fuel consumption increases by 5%. It is recommended not to use fuel with a density >1010 kg/m3 and a viscosity <300…400 mm2/s. Developed solutions for the rational selection of bunkered marine fuel properties for a specific DE model trough the influence of density and viscosity on fuel injection and combustion characteristics based on multiparametric diagrams of relative fuel consumption change.","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85962361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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