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A Scale of Credit Risk Evaluations Assessed by Ordered Fuzzy Numbers 一种用有序模糊数评价信用风险的尺度
Pub Date : 2019-09-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3459822
Aleksandra Wójcicka-Wójtowicz, Krzysztof Piasecki
Banks faced many difficulties related to lax credit standards. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and it should maintain credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. However, the problem arises when standards are not strictly quantitative as managers often depend on various approaches – also on experts’ techniques. Each bank has the credit assessment department and a specific credit assessment committee. The committee is provided with the analysts’ recommendation based on ratios from financial statements and internal rating system. However, the final decision belongs to the committee members who do not solely rely on financial data and take into consideration factors of a wider spectrum, e.g. the prospects of the line of business or the experience of board members etc. Those factors are often considered on the linguistic scale which includes imprecise and inaccurate quantifiers such as: more/less, better/worse etc. which for the experts are justified and result from their personal experience.

The paper presents the approach of the decision-making techniques and scales of imprecise phrases commonly used in the process of credit risk assessment based on experts’ preferences. Due to the imprecision, ordered fuzzy numbers are a useful tool. It also focuses on a question how, a human judgement approach, based on prioritizing and ranking prospect borrowers, affects the decision-making process.
银行面临着与宽松的信贷标准有关的许多困难。信用风险的有效管理是全面风险管理方法的关键组成部分,它应将信用风险暴露保持在可接受的范围内。然而,当标准不是严格的量化时,问题就出现了,因为管理人员往往依赖于各种方法——也依赖于专家的技术。每家银行都设有信用评估部门和专门的信用评估委员会。根据财务报表的比率和内部评级制度,向委员会提供分析师的建议。然而,最终的决定属于委员会成员,他们并不仅仅依靠财务数据,而是考虑更广泛的因素,例如业务线的前景或董事会成员的经验等。这些因素通常是在语言尺度上考虑的,其中包括不精确和不准确的量词,如:更多/更少,更好/更差等,这些对于专家来说是合理的,是他们个人经验的结果。本文提出了基于专家偏好的信用风险评估过程中常用的不精确短语的决策方法和尺度。由于不精确,有序模糊数是一个有用的工具。它还关注了一个问题,即基于对潜在借款人进行优先排序和排名的人类判断方法如何影响决策过程。
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引用次数: 3
Financial Reporting Quality and Sustainability Information Disclosure in Brazil 巴西财务报告质量与可持续性信息披露
Pub Date : 2019-09-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3452050
João Antônio Salvador de Souza, L. Flach, Jose Alonso Borba, Cleber Broietti
Currently, businesses face an information disclosure approach involving the triple bottom line (social, environmental, and financial). This paper aims to investigate the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) information and financial reporting quality (FRQ). We argue that CSR companies behave differently in preparing financial accounting reports. Recent literature supports this theme, providing two distinct hypotheses: transparent financial reporting and retreatment. We used a sample of 1,181 companies from the years 2012 to 2016 to identify if socially responsible companies have better quality financial accounting information. In contrast to the hypotheses raised, we didn’t find a relationship between the CSR disclosures and the FRQ proxies. This suggests that sustainable companies do not explain lower or higher levels of earnings management. Our findings remain unchanged when we replace results management through discretionary accruals for manipulations of operating activities. Estimates with comparable samples also didn’t change the interpretations of the results.
目前,企业面临的信息披露方式涉及三重底线(社会、环境和财务)。本文旨在探讨企业社会责任信息与财务报告质量之间的关系。我们认为,企业社会责任公司在编制财务会计报告方面表现不同。最近的文献支持这一主题,提供了两个不同的假设:透明的财务报告和再处理。我们使用了从2012年到2016年的1181家公司的样本来确定社会责任公司是否拥有更高质量的财务会计信息。与提出的假设相反,我们没有发现CSR披露与FRQ代理之间的关系。这表明,可持续发展的公司并不能解释其盈余管理水平的高低。当我们通过操纵经营活动的可自由支配的应计项目取代结果管理时,我们的发现保持不变。对可比较样本的估计也没有改变对结果的解释。
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引用次数: 10
Libor Benchmark Reform: An Overview of Libor Changes and Its Impact on Yield Curves, Pricing and Risk Libor基准改革:Libor变动概述及其对收益率曲线、定价和风险的影响
Pub Date : 2019-09-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3479833
N. Burgess
Libor is arguably the world's most important number, with more than USD 200 trillion of derivatives, loans, securities and mortgages referencing this rate in the US markets alone. The Libor benchmark rate is being replaced with alternative reference rates (ARRs) and there is no guarantee the rate will continue to be quoted beyond 2021. In this paper Libor benchmark rate reform is discussed in detail and we assess the impact this has on yield curve construction, interest rate pricing and risk. We highlight why Libor is important, review its history and how it has evolved, which leads to a discussion as to what is wrong with Libor benchmarks. We outline market terminology with regards to both interest rates and yield curve construction, before proceeding to assess on the impact of Libor reform, reviewing the new benchmarks, fall-back rates and yield curve changes. We review yield curve calibration and in doing so provide many charts and Excel workbook illustrations to demonstrate new features of ARR yield curves. We explain how to both bootstrap and globally calibrate curves to imply forward rates & discount factors. Moreover, we outline the interpolation, optimization and solving process, showing how to calibrate curves in such a way to capture the necessary risk metrics required to compute analytical risk and rebuild curves for ultra-fast performance. It is hoped this paper will serve as a useful Libor benchmark rate reform and yield curve primer.
Libor可以说是世界上最重要的数字,仅在美国市场,就有超过200万亿美元的衍生品、贷款、证券和抵押贷款参考这一利率。Libor基准利率正被替代参考利率(arr)所取代,无法保证该利率在2021年后仍将继续被引用。本文详细讨论了Libor基准利率改革,并评估了其对收益率曲线构建、利率定价和风险的影响。我们强调了Libor的重要性,回顾了它的历史及其演变,并讨论了Libor基准的问题所在。我们概述了与利率和收益率曲线构建相关的市场术语,然后开始评估Libor改革的影响,回顾新的基准、回调利率和收益率曲线的变化。我们回顾了收益率曲线校准,并在此过程中提供了许多图表和Excel工作簿插图,以展示ARR收益率曲线的新特征。我们解释了如何引导和全局校准曲线来暗示远期利率和折现因素。此外,我们概述了插值、优化和求解过程,展示了如何以这种方式校准曲线,以捕获计算分析风险所需的必要风险指标,并重建曲线以实现超快速性能。希望本文能成为有用的伦敦银行同业拆借利率(Libor)基准利率改革和收益率曲线入门读物。
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引用次数: 6
Index Fund and ETF Ownership and the German Market for Corporate Control 指数基金和ETF所有权与德国公司控制权市场
Pub Date : 2019-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3443622
Ludwig Dobmeier, Renata Lavrova, B. Schwetzler
If a bidder launches a takeover offer for a listed company being part of a stock market index, then index funds and exchange traded funds (ETF) as shareholders of this company cannot easily tender their shares without losing track of the index. This paper analyzes the impact of index fund and ETF ownership on the success of takeover offers in Germany. Based on a sample of 323 takeover offers of publicly listed German companies between 2006 and 2018, we document a significant negative impact of index fund and ETF ownership on takeover success. The fraction of outstanding shares eventually being tendered is decreasing with an increase in the stake of index funds and ETF: a one standard deviation increase in pre-offer index fund and ETF ownership reduces the fraction of outstanding shares gained by the bidder by 4.5 percentage points. For control-taking takeover bids with a bidder’s toehold below 30% this value increases to 9.9 percentage points. Thus, our results suggest the increasing importance of index funds and ETF to weaken the German market for corporate control.
如果投标者提出收购某一上市公司的要约,那么作为该公司股东的指数基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)就很难在不失去指数追踪的情况下轻易投标。本文分析了指数基金和交易所交易基金的所有权对德国收购要约成功的影响。基于2006年至2018年间德国上市公司323份收购要约的样本,我们发现指数基金和ETF所有权对收购成功存在显著的负面影响。随着指数基金和ETF持股比例的增加,最终被投标的流通股比例正在下降:要约前指数基金和ETF持股比例每增加一个标准差,竞标者获得的流通股比例就会降低4.5个百分点。对于收购方占比低于30%的控股收购,这一比例增加到9.9个百分点。因此,我们的研究结果表明,指数基金和ETF对削弱德国市场的公司控制权越来越重要。
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引用次数: 1
The Ant or the Grasshopper? The Long-Term Consequences of Unilateral Divorce Laws on Savings of European Households 蚂蚁还是蚱蜢?单方面离婚法对欧洲家庭储蓄的长期影响
Pub Date : 2019-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2019.07.002
V. Angelini, Marco Bertoni, Luca Stella, Christoph T. Weiss
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引用次数: 12
Modeling Hard and Soft Facts for Smes: Some International Evidence 中小企业的软硬事实建模:一些国际证据
Pub Date : 2019-07-08 DOI: 10.1111/jifm.12108
Massimo Matthias, Michele Giammarino, G. Gabbi
This paper asks how well the use of quantitative and qualitative variables can improve the assessment of companies' creditworthiness and how this result can be influenced by the economic and financial peculiarities of countries. We harden qualitative variable measures to model soft information aimed at scoring microfirms, small, and medium‐sized firms. The structural survey covers Germany, Italy, and the UK in a sample of about 17 thousand companies observed during the financial crisis. Soft facts are determined within the balanced scorecard framework in order to find out the impact of customers, business processes, learning and growth, and financial perspectives. Our findings show that credit models integrating soft variables optimize the risk estimation, but estimates are country‐specific and should be tailored to the characteristics of each economic system.
本文探讨了定量和定性变量的使用在多大程度上可以改善对公司信誉的评估,以及这一结果如何受到各国经济和金融特点的影响。我们强化了定性变量测量来模拟软信息,旨在对微型公司、小型和中型公司进行评分。这项结构性调查涵盖了德国、意大利和英国,样本包括金融危机期间观察到的约1.7万家公司。软事实是在平衡计分卡框架内确定的,以便找出客户、业务流程、学习和成长以及财务前景的影响。我们的研究结果表明,整合软变量的信贷模型优化了风险估计,但估计是针对每个国家的,应该根据每个经济系统的特征进行调整。
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引用次数: 8
Systemic Risk Analysis and SIFIs Detection: A Proposal for a Complete Methodology 系统性风险分析和sifi检测:一个完整方法论的建议
Pub Date : 2019-07-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3415730
Luca Riccetti
The paper starts reviewing the financial systemic risk mechanisms and how to measure this risk. Then, it proposes to develop an agent-based multi-layer network simulation suited to measure the systemic risk, in order to identify Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs), and to understand the best policies both to prevent the distress and to mitigate the contagion. The methodology will correctly model the direct network contagion channel (interconnectedness of balance sheet of financial institutions, including direct losses and liquidity hoarding), also integrating the indirect contagion channel (fire sales and bank runs), in order to reach the ground-breaking target of a full representation of the financial systemic risk.
本文首先回顾了金融系统风险的机制以及如何度量这种风险。然后,本文建议开发一个基于代理的多层网络模拟,用于测量系统风险,以识别系统重要性金融机构(sifi),并了解防止困境和减轻传染的最佳政策。该方法将正确地模拟直接网络传染渠道(金融机构资产负债表的相互联系,包括直接损失和流动性囤积),也整合间接传染渠道(甩卖和银行挤兑),以达到全面代表金融系统风险的突破性目标。
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引用次数: 1
Tournament Incentives and Firm Credit Risk: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Referenced Firms 比赛激励与企业信用风险:来自信用违约互换参考公司的证据
Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/jbfa.12395
Lijing Du, Jian Huang, B. A. Jain
In this paper, we evaluate the impact of managerial tournament incentives on firm credit risk in credit default swap (CDS) referenced firms. We find that intra‐firm tournament incentives are negatively related to credit risk. Our results suggest that tournament incentives reduce credit risk by alleviating the potential for underinvestment when managers are concerned about exacting empty creditors. Further, we find that tournament incentives decrease credit risk when internal governance is strong or product market competition is intense. Taken together, our results suggest that creditors perceive senior manager tournament incentives (SMTI) as a critical determinant of a firm's credit risk, particularly in settings where managerial risk aversion is high.
本文以信用违约互换(CDS)参考企业为研究对象,评估管理层竞赛激励对企业信用风险的影响。我们发现公司内部比赛激励与信用风险负相关。我们的研究结果表明,当管理者担心苛刻的空债权人时,锦标赛激励通过减轻投资不足的可能性来降低信用风险。此外,我们发现当内部治理较强或产品市场竞争激烈时,锦标赛激励会降低信用风险。综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,债权人认为高级经理比赛激励(SMTI)是公司信用风险的关键决定因素,特别是在管理层风险厌恶程度较高的情况下。
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引用次数: 7
Tracing the Impact of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme on the Yield Curve 追踪欧洲央行资产购买计划对收益率曲线的影响
Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3417070
F. Eser, Wolfgang Lemke, K. Nyholm, Soeren Radde, A. Vladu
We trace the impact of the ECB’s asset purchase programme (APP) on the sovereign yield curve. Exploiting granular information on sectoral asset holdings and ECB asset purchases, we construct a novel measure of the “free-float of duration risk” borne by price-sensitive investors. We include this supply variable in an arbitrage-free term structure model in which central bank purchases reduce the free-float of duration risk and hence compress term premia of yields. We estimate the stock of current and expected future APP holdings to reduce the 10y term premium by 95 bps. This reduction is persistent, with a half-life of five years. The expected length of the reinvestment period after APP net purchases is found to have a significant impact on term premia. JEL Classification: C5, E43, E52, E58, G12
我们追踪了欧洲央行资产购买计划(APP)对主权债券收益率曲线的影响。利用行业资产持有和欧洲央行资产购买的详细信息,我们构建了一个衡量由价格敏感投资者承担的“期限风险自由浮动”的新指标。我们将这一供给变量纳入无套利期限结构模型,在该模型中,央行购买减少了期限风险的自由浮动,从而压缩了收益率的期限溢价。我们估计当前和预期未来持有的APP股票将使10年期期限溢价降低95个基点。这种减少是持续的,半衰期为5年。发现APP净购买后再投资期的预期长度对期限溢价有显著影响。JEL分类:C5, E43, E52, E58, G12
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引用次数: 72
Towards a European Legal Framework for Loan-Originating Funds 为贷款来源基金建立欧洲法律框架
Pub Date : 2019-06-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3492968
Sebastiaan Niels Hooghiemstra
Over the last few years, the European AIF industry has witnessed a surge of interest in loan-originating funds. Both regulatory and economic aspects have been driving this trend. The tighter regulation and increased capital requirements imposed by Basel III on traditional lending banks has reduced the capacity for banks to issue loans. In particular, this holds true for issuing loans to SMEs. Unlike large corporates, SMEs do not have the possibility of a wide range of financing options, such as bonds and listed debt instruments. Given the dependence of European SMEs on bank financing, this created a massive gap in the financing market. Furthermore, institutional investors have been looking to diversity their assets in the search for yield in a low-interest rate environment. This is where European loan-originating fund managers have successfully been stepping in. The current main problem for loan-originating funds in the EEA is that Member States have implemented CRD IV in different ways that restricts loan-originating fund managers in granting loans to SMEs in various EEA Member States. Some Member States take a rather strict approach and consider the origination of loans as a pure banking activity (the so-called ‘banking monopoly’), whereas others also allow non-banking entities to grant loans in their domestic markets. This causes a fragmented landscape for loan-originating funds in which loan-originating fund managers are, in practice, forced to strategically focus themselves on a few (big) EEA domestic markets. As a response to loan-originating funds gaining traction with the EEA, a number of EEA Member States have opened up their ‘banking monopoly’ to boost lending to SMEs by loan-originating fund managers. Despite having the same objective, the regimes on the national level are not necessarily consistent and the current ‘goldplating’ of national AIFMD product laws makes the pan-EU origination of loans for loan-originating fund managers challenging. Furthermore, the regulatory strings attached to the ELTIFR, EuVECAR and EuSEFR have so far offered little help in remedying this fragmented landscape. In an attempt to investigate the current landscape, ESMA conducted research into national loan- originating fund product regimes and issued an opinion related to that. Although the mood is reasonably optimistic, no harmonized EU proposal is yet in place. This contribution seeks to contribute by developing pan-EU standards to facilitate the growth of lending to SMEs and soliciting capital from EEA investors by pan-European loan-originating funds. To that end, section 2 discusses the differences between 'loan funds', loan-originating funds' and 'loan-participating funds'. Section 3 focuses on the EU banking law restrictions, as implemented by Member States under their CRD IV national implementations, for loan-originating funds and section 4 on the differences between loan-originating funds versus banks in terms of investor versus deposit
在过去几年中,欧洲AIF行业见证了对贷款发起基金的兴趣激增。监管和经济方面都推动了这一趋势。《巴塞尔协议III》(Basel III)对传统贷款银行施加的更严格监管和更高的资本要求,降低了银行发放贷款的能力。中小企业贷款尤其如此。与大企业不同,中小企业没有广泛的融资选择,例如债券和上市债务工具。鉴于欧洲中小企业对银行融资的依赖,这造成了融资市场的巨大缺口。此外,机构投资者一直在寻求在低利率环境下实现资产多元化,以寻求收益。这正是欧洲贷款基金管理公司成功涉足的领域。欧洲经济区贷款发起基金目前的主要问题是,成员国以不同的方式实施了CRD IV,限制了贷款发起基金经理向各欧洲经济区成员国的中小企业提供贷款。一些成员国采取相当严格的做法,将贷款的发放视为纯粹的银行活动(所谓的“银行垄断”),而其他成员国也允许非银行实体在其国内市场发放贷款。这导致贷款发起基金的格局支离破碎,在这种情况下,贷款发起基金经理实际上被迫在战略上专注于几个(大的)欧洲经济区国内市场。作为对贷款发起基金在欧洲经济区获得牵引力的回应,一些欧洲经济区成员国已经开放了它们的“银行垄断”,以促进贷款发起基金管理公司向中小企业提供贷款。尽管具有相同的目标,但国家层面的制度并不一定一致,目前国家AIFMD产品法律的“镀金”使得泛欧盟贷款发起基金经理的贷款具有挑战性。此外,ELTIFR、EuVECAR和euusefr附加的监管条件迄今为止在弥补这种碎片化格局方面几乎没有帮助。为了调查目前的情况,ESMA对国家贷款发起基金产品制度进行了研究,并发表了相关意见。尽管人们的情绪相当乐观,但欧盟尚未出台统一的提案。这项贡献旨在通过制定泛欧盟标准来促进中小企业贷款的增长,并通过泛欧洲贷款发起基金向欧洲经济区投资者募集资金。为此,第2节讨论了“贷款基金”、“贷款发起基金”和“贷款参与基金”之间的区别。第3节侧重于欧盟银行法对贷款发起基金的限制,由成员国根据其CRD IV国家实施实施,第4节侧重于贷款发起基金与银行在投资者与存款保护和系统风险方面的差异。第5节分析了目前支离破碎的欧洲贷款来源基金框架。第6节为贷款发起基金提出了一个连贯的公平竞争环境的欧洲法律框架,为此类基金创造一个可行的欧盟市场,第7节得出结论。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
European Finance eJournal
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