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One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area 一种货币,多种市场:欧元区的货币传导与住房融资
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3652496
G. Corsetti, João B. Duarte, Samuel Mann
We study the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. We develop a methodology to assess the degree of heterogeneity, which we find to be low in financial variables and output, but significant in consumption, consumer prices, and variables related to local housing and labor markets. Building a small open economy model featuring a housing sector and calibrating it to Spain, we show that varying the share of adjustable-rate mortgages and loan-to-value ratios explains up to one-third of the cross-country heterogeneity in the responses of output and private consumption.
我们使用动态因素模型和高频识别来研究欧元区国家间货币冲击的传导。我们开发了一种评估异质性程度的方法,我们发现金融变量和产出的异质性程度较低,但在消费、消费者价格以及与当地住房和劳动力市场相关的变量方面却很重要。我们建立了一个以住房部门为特征的小型开放经济模型,并将其与西班牙进行了校正,结果表明,不同比例的可调利率抵押贷款和贷款与价值比率解释了产出和私人消费反应中高达三分之一的跨国异质性。
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引用次数: 5
Short-termist Investment and Time Preferences 短期投资和时间偏好
Pub Date : 2020-05-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3810880
Wolfgang Breuer, Andreas Knetsch, A. Salzmann
This paper investigates the effect of shareholder and manager time preferences on short-termist investment behavior. Our theoretical analysis shows that managerial future orientation curtails short-termism whereas shareholder patience exacerbates it. We test these predictions by comparing the effects of time preferences on investment horizons of listed and unlisted firms in a sample of European firms. Based on the assumption that unlisted firms suffer from less asymmetric information, the effects of future orientation on investment horizons that are exclusive to listed firms provide weak support for our hypotheses. When considering future orientation on a national level, we find some evidence for firms in more future-oriented countries investing more long-term oriented. We can however not confirm the widespread notion that firms in more future-oriented countries suffer from less short-termism.
本文研究了股东和管理者的时间偏好对短期投资行为的影响。我们的理论分析表明,管理层的未来取向抑制了短期主义,而股东的耐心则加剧了短期主义。我们以欧洲公司为样本,通过比较时间偏好对上市公司和非上市公司投资期限的影响来检验这些预测。基于非上市公司信息不对称程度较低的假设,未来导向对上市公司投资视野的影响为我们的假设提供了微弱的支持。当考虑国家层面的未来导向时,我们发现一些证据表明,更面向未来的国家的企业投资更倾向于长期导向。然而,我们无法证实一种普遍的观念,即更面向未来的国家的公司较少遭受短期主义的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Ползите от задължително нефинансово отчитане без единна рамка за оповестяване (The Benefits of Mandatory Non-Financial Reporting Without a Single Disclosure Framework)
Pub Date : 2020-05-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3677255
A. Atanasov
Bulgarian abstract: Целта на тази публикация е да предостави критичен анализ на приложимостта на Европейската директива за нефинансово отчитане и по-специално на прилаганите рамки за нефинансово оповестяване. Резултатите от изследването, основани на преглед на специализираната литература и анализ на приложимите в момента рамки за докладване, показват широк спектър от използваните рамки за разкриване на нефинансова информация. На тази основа се стига до заключението, че е необходима единна рамка за докладване на нефинансова информация, тъй като използването на множество рамки създава предпоставки за несъпоставимост на разкритата информация, от една страна, и дава възможност за формално изпълнение на изискванията на европейската Директива от друга. English abstract: The purpose of this publication is to provide a critical analysis of the applicability of the European Non-Financial Reporting Directive, and in particular of the non-financial disclosure framework applied. The results of the study, based on a literature review of the specialized literature and analysis of currently applicable reporting frameworks, show a wide range of disclosure frameworks used. On this basis, it is concluded that a single framework for non-financial information disclosure is needed, since the use of multiple disclosure frameworks creates prerequisites for the incompatibility of disclosed information on the one hand and enables the formal fulfillment of the requirements of the European Directive on the other.
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引用次数: 0
EU Banking in the COVID-19 Crisis: Time for a 'New Deal' 新冠肺炎危机中的欧盟银行业:是时候出台“新政”了
Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3610653
P. Nathanial, L. van der Heyden
The current COVID-19 sanitary and economic crisis requires a “New Deal” between EU governments and EU banks: EU banks agree to partner with governments in enabling the effective transmission of the government’s vital financial support to the real economy in exchange for a transformation of the EU banking sector. This deal consists of a quid pro quo: governments condition the transmission via the banking sector of considerable monies to the real economy on a rationalization of the EU banking sector, which thus would become part of the post-COVID-19 “new normal.”To be successful, this unparalleled support of the EU economy will come with governmental guarantees and fees for banking services. Banks partnering in the salvage operation would be required to review and render their business models “fit for purpose.” A three-layered banking ecosystem in the EU should thus emerge one serving large corporates across the EU and also abroad, a second serving particular geographies and industries, and a third one more focused on retail clients and communities. Given the EU's openness and size, the region should host several banks of global standing and reach. The COVID-19 crisis is also an opportune time to enhance EU capital markets as a complement to the banking sector, especially with London's departure as a European financial center. The necessity of this project has been stated by many; COVID-19 has made it imperative to act. If this “New EU Banking Deal” deal does not materialize, the EU saga will include one more lost opportunity. More importantly, the consequences for both the banking sector and the entire EU financial and economic systems risk being dire. EU and banking authorities will have added to the costs of the economic and health catastrophes unfolding in front of us. Effective EU governance has never been more necessary in the face of major global issues such as COVID-19, climate change, and North-South migration. Now is the time for EU nations and their leaders in the public and private sectors to agree to a more robust financial union serving the EU population and its corporations. In doing so, the EU leadership will have met the growing concerns of an impatient EU public querying the purpose and value of the EU project.
当前的COVID-19卫生和经济危机需要欧盟政府和欧盟银行之间的“新政”:欧盟银行同意与政府合作,使政府的重要金融支持有效地传递给实体经济,以换取欧盟银行业的转型。该协议包括交换条件:各国政府以欧盟银行业的合理化为条件,通过银行业向实体经济输送大量资金,这将成为后covid -19“新常态”的一部分。为了取得成功,这种对欧盟经济无与伦比的支持将伴随着政府担保和银行服务费。参与救助行动的银行将被要求审查并使其商业模式“符合目的”。因此,欧盟应该出现一个三层的银行生态系统,一层服务于欧盟和国外的大型企业,第二层服务于特定的地区和行业,第三层更侧重于零售客户和社区。鉴于欧盟的开放性和规模,该地区应该拥有几家具有全球地位和影响力的银行。新冠肺炎危机也是加强欧盟资本市场作为银行业补充的好时机,特别是在伦敦退出欧洲金融中心的背景下。许多人都指出了这个项目的必要性;COVID-19使我们必须采取行动。如果这项“新欧盟银行业协议”不能实现,欧盟的传奇将包括又一个失去的机会。更重要的是,对银行业和整个欧盟金融和经济体系的后果可能是可怕的。欧盟和银行当局将增加摆在我们面前的经济和健康灾难的成本。面对新冠肺炎疫情、气候变化、南北移民等重大全球性问题,有效的欧盟治理从未像现在这样必要。现在是时候让欧盟国家及其公共和私营部门领导人同意建立一个更强大的金融联盟,为欧盟民众和企业服务。这样做,欧盟领导人将满足不耐烦的欧盟公众日益增长的担忧,他们质疑欧盟项目的目的和价值。
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引用次数: 2
Shareholder Return of the Euro Stoxx 50 Companies: 2004 – 2020 欧洲斯托克50指数公司的股东回报:2004 - 2020
Pub Date : 2020-05-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3600217
Pablo Fernández, Eduardo de Apellániz
We calculate the shareholder returns of the companies in the Euro Stoxx 50 in the period 2004 - April 2020. We analyze 62 companies: 47 that were in the Euro Stoxx 50 in April 2020 and had trading records since December 2004 and 15 companies that had been in the Euro Stoxx 50 in the period. In the period December 2004-April 30, 2020, 19 companies had negative return and the average annual return was 4,8%. In the first four months of 2020, 6 companies had positive return and the average return was -24,4%. In the period December 2018-April 30, 2020, 26 companies had positive return and the average return was -3,2%. The correlation of return (December 2004-April 30, 2020) and Market Cap. in 2004 was -38%. The correlation of return (December 2018-April 30, 2020) and Market Cap. in 2018 was 43%. 34 companies had a price decrease (including dividends received) in the period 2004 – April 30, 2020 higher than 60%, 46 companies higher than 50% and 55 companies higher than 40%.
我们计算了2004年至2020年4月期间欧洲斯托克50指数成份股公司的股东回报。我们分析了62家公司:47家在2020年4月进入欧洲斯托克50指数,自2004年12月以来的交易记录;15家在此期间进入欧洲斯托克50指数。在2004年12月至2020年4月30日期间,19家公司的回报率为负,平均年回报率为4.8%。2020年前4个月,6家公司实现了正回报,平均回报率为- 24.4%。在2018年12月至2020年4月30日期间,26家公司实现了正回报,平均回报率为- 3.2%。2004年12月至2020年4月30日的收益率与2004年市值的相关性为-38%。2018年12月至2020年4月30日的回报率与市值的相关性为43%。2004年至2020年4月30日期间,34家公司的股价下跌幅度(包括股息)超过60%,46家公司的股价下跌幅度超过50%,55家公司的股价下跌幅度超过40%。
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引用次数: 0
The Co-holding Puzzle: New Evidence from Transaction-Level Data 共同持有难题:来自交易级数据的新证据
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3607560
John Gathergood, Arna Olafsson
Using detailed and highly-disaggregated data on spending, income, bank account balances, and consumer credit, we examine the tendency of individuals to "co-hold", i.e., to simultaneously hold low-interest liquid deposit balances and high-interest debt in the form of overdrafts. The disaggregated nature of the data allows us to calculate co-holding at daily frequency, while prior studies have relied on more aggregated measures. Daily measures reveal that co-holding is less common than these prior studies have documented, occurring on approximately 15% of individual A? days in our baseline calculations. Most spells of co-holding are also short, lasting less than one calendar month. The detailed data allow us to examine the empirical relevance of the competing explanations for co-holding. When brought to the data, we find that co-holding appears to be driven by behavioral rather than rational forces. More specifically, we find evidence in support of explanations for co-holding based upon mental accounting while we find rational explanations for co-holding to be empirically much less relevant.
利用详细的、高度分类的支出、收入、银行账户余额和消费信贷数据,我们研究了个人“共同持有”的趋势,即同时持有低利率的流动存款余额和透支形式的高利率债务。数据的分类性质使我们能够计算每日频率的共同持有,而先前的研究依赖于更多的汇总措施。每日测量显示,共同持有的情况并不像之前的研究所记录的那样普遍,大约发生在15%的A?在我们的基线计算中。大多数共同持有的时间也很短,持续时间不到一个月。详细的数据使我们能够检验共同持有的竞争解释的经验相关性。当涉及到数据时,我们发现共同持有似乎是由行为而非理性力量驱动的。更具体地说,我们找到了支持基于心理会计的共同持有解释的证据,而我们发现共同持有的理性解释在经验上的相关性要小得多。
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引用次数: 6
Classical Option Pricing and Some Steps Further 经典期权定价及其进一步发展
Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3587369
Victor Olkhov
This paper modifies single assumption in the base of classical option pricing model and derives further extensions for the Black-Scholes-Merton equation. We regard the price as the ratio of the cost and the volume of market transaction and apply classical assumptions on stochastic Brownian motion not to the price but to the cost and the volume. This simple replacement leads to 2-dimensional BSM-like equation with two constant volatilities. We argue that decisions on the cost and the volume of market transactions are made under agents expectations. Random perturbations of expectations impact the market transactions and through them induce stochastic behavior of the underlying price. We derive BSM-like equation driven by Brownian motion of agents expectations. Agents expectations can be based on option trading data. We show how such expectations can lead to nonlinear BSM-like equations. Further we show that the Heston stochastic volatility option pricing model can be applied to our approximations and as example derive 3-dimensional BSM-like equation that describes option pricing with stochastic cost volatility and constant volume volatility. Diversity of BSM-like equations with 2 – 5 or more dimensions emphasizes complexity of option pricing problem. Such variety states the problem of reasonable balance between the accuracy of asset and option price description and the complexity of the equations under consideration. We hope that some of BSM-like equations derived in this paper may be useful for further development of assets and option market modeling.
本文在修正经典期权定价模型的基础上,对Black-Scholes-Merton方程进行了进一步的推广。我们将价格视为市场交易的成本与交易量之比,并将经典的随机布朗运动假设应用于成本和交易量而不是价格。这种简单的替换产生了具有两个恒定波动率的二维bsm类方程。我们认为,成本和市场交易量的决策是在代理人的预期下做出的。预期的随机扰动影响市场交易,并通过它们诱发基础价格的随机行为。我们导出了由agent期望的布朗运动驱动的类bsm方程。代理人期望可以基于期权交易数据。我们展示了这样的期望如何导致非线性bsm样方程。进一步,我们证明了赫斯顿随机波动率期权定价模型可以应用于我们的逼近,并作为例子推导了三维bsm式方程,该方程描述了随机成本波动率和恒定量波动率的期权定价。2 - 5维或更多维类bsm方程的多样性强调了期权定价问题的复杂性。这种多样性说明了资产和期权价格描述的准确性与所考虑的方程的复杂性之间的合理平衡问题。我们希望本文推导的一些类bsm方程对资产和期权市场建模的进一步发展有所帮助。
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引用次数: 7
Stock Picking with Machine Learning 用机器学习选股
Pub Date : 2020-04-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3607845
D. Wolff, F. Echterling
We analyze machine learning algorithms for stock selection. Our study builds on weekly data for the historical constituents of the S&P500 over the period from January 1999 to March 2021 and builds on typical equity factors, additional firm fundamentals, and technical indicators. A variety of machine learning models are trained on the binary classification task to predict whether a specific stock outperforms or underperforms the cross‐sectional median return over the subsequent week. We analyze weekly trading strategies that invest in stocks with the highest predicted outperformance probability. Our empirical results show substantial and significant outperformance of machine learning‐based stock selection models compared to an equally weighted benchmark. Interestingly, we find more simplistic regularized logistic regression models to perform similarly well compared to more complex machine learning models. The results are robust when applied to the STOXX Europe 600 as alternative asset universe.
我们分析股票选择的机器学习算法。我们的研究基于1999年1月至2021年3月期间标准普尔500指数历史成分股的每周数据,并基于典型的股票因素、额外的坚实基本面和技术指标。在二元分类任务上训练了各种机器学习模型,以预测特定股票在随后一周的表现是优于还是低于横截面中位数回报。我们分析了每周的交易策略,这些策略投资于预期表现最好的股票。我们的实证结果显示,与同等权重的基准相比,基于机器学习的选股模型的表现显著优于其他模型。有趣的是,我们发现与更复杂的机器学习模型相比,更简单的正则化逻辑回归模型表现得同样好。当应用于斯托克欧洲600指数作为另类资产时,结果是稳健的。
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引用次数: 1
ICO vs. Equity Financing Under Imperfect, Complex and Asymmetric Information 信息不完全、复杂和不对称下的ICO与股权融资
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3539017
A. Miglo
This paper offers a model of a firm that raises funds for financing an innovative business project and chooses between ICO (initial coin offering) and equity financing. The model is based on information problems associated with both ICO and equity financing well documented in literature. The model provides several implications that have not yet been tested. For example we find that the message complexity can be benefitial for firms conducting ICOs. Also high-quality projects can use ICO as a signal of quality. Thirdly the average size of projects undertaking equity financing is larger than that of firms conducting ICO.
本文提供了一个公司为创新商业项目融资并在ICO(首次代币发行)和股权融资之间进行选择的模型。该模型基于文献中详细记录的与ICO和股权融资相关的信息问题。该模型提供了一些尚未经过检验的含义。例如,我们发现信息复杂性可能对进行ico的公司有利。此外,高质量的项目可以使用ICO作为质量的信号。第三,股权融资项目的平均规模大于ICO项目的平均规模。
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引用次数: 2
Bolsa en España. ITBM: 1940-2020 (27marzo), (Spanish Stock Exchange. ITBM. 1940-27 March 2020)
Pub Date : 2020-03-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3562943
Pablo Fernández, Eduardo de Apellániz
Spanish Abstract: El descenso de la Bolsa en Espana (ITBM) en el mes de marzo (hasta el viernes 27) ha sido un 22,9%. Es un importante descenso, pero los ha habido (de momento) mayores. Observando la evolucion bursatil de los ultimos 80 anos, se corrobora que la bolsa espanola ya ha tenido descensos muy superiores a los del mes de marzo de 2020. Se muestra la evolucion del ITBM desde 1940 hasta el 27 de marzo de 2020. Se utiliza el Indice Total de la Bolsa de Madrid (ITBM) porque el IBEX 35 solo tiene 31 anos de historia. Se muestra que la evolucion del ITBM y del IBEX 35 con dividendos es practicamente igual. English Abstract: The decrease in the Spanish Stock Market (ITBM) in the month of March (until Friday 27) has been 22.9%. It is a significant decline, but there have been (so far) greater. Observing the stock market evolution of the last 80 years, it is corroborated that the Spanish stock market has already had declines much higher than those of March 2020. The evolution of the ITBM from 1940 to March 27, 2020 is shown. The Total Index of the Madrid Stock Exchange (ITBM) is used because the IBEX 35 has only 31 years of history. The evolution of the ITBM and the IBEX 35 with dividends is shown to be practically the same.
西班牙股市(ITBM)在3月份(截至27日周五)下跌了22.9%。这是一个重要的下降,但(到目前为止)还出现了更大的下降。观察过去80年的股票交易所演变,可以证实,西班牙股票交易所的下跌幅度远远大于2020年3月的下跌幅度。显示了ITBM从1940年到2020年3月27日的演变。使用马德里证券交易所总指数(ITBM)是因为IBEX 35只有31年的历史。本文对ITBM和IBEX 35的股利趋势进行了分析。English Abstract: The decrease in The西班牙Stock Market (ITBM) in The month of March(直到Friday 27) has been 22.9%。这是一个重大的下降,但已经(到目前为止)更大了。观察过去80年股票市场的演变情况,可以证实,西班牙股票市场的降幅比2020年3月的降幅大得多。The evolution of The ITBM从1940年3月27日,2020年是日内瓦。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查局的数据,这个县的总面积,其中土地和(1.2%)水。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查,这个县的面积为。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
European Finance eJournal
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