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Equity to Financial Liabilities Ratio and Annualized Ten-Year Change of Total Equity or Equity Market Price Index 权益对金融负债比率和总权益十年年化变动或股票市场价格指数
Pub Date : 2020-08-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3629067
Aki Lappalainen
In this paper, I show that the relationship between equity to financial liabilities ratio of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, United States and Eurozone and annualized ten-year forward change of total value of equity of the country or corresponding equity market price index is linear and that the ratio has, for most of the countries and indices of this study, high predictive power on the future change of total value of equity or equity market index. I also examine the in-the-sample and out-of-the-sample forecasts of the ratio for every equity market price index and analyze the shape and values of the first integral function of the linear regression line between the ratio and the index.
在本文中,我证明了芬兰、瑞典、挪威、德国、法国、英国、西班牙、意大利、美国和欧元区的股权与金融负债率与该国股权总价值或相应的股票市场价格指数的年化十年远期变化之间的关系是线性的,并且对于本研究的大多数国家和指数而言,该比率对股权总价值或股票市场指数的未来变化具有较高的预测能力。我还检查了每个股票市场价格指数的样本内和样本外的比率预测,并分析了比率与指数之间线性回归线的第一个积分函数的形状和值。
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引用次数: 4
The Passing from the Classical to the Extended Form of the Holiday Effect on the Euronext 假日效应对泛欧交易所的影响从古典到延伸
Pub Date : 2020-07-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3657040
R. Stefanescu, Ramona Dumitriu
In some circumstances, the classical form of the Holiday Effect, consisting in abnormal returns that occur one trading day before and one trading day after a public holiday, could be replaced by an extended form, in which abnormal returns are found in an enlarged time interval. This paper explores the presence of the classical and the extended form of the Holiday Effect on four indexes of the Euronext capital market: AEX, CAC 40, ISEQ 20 and PSI 20. We perform this investigation for two periods: January 2000 - December 2011 and January 2012 - June 2020. For the first period the results suggest that classical form of the Holiday Effect predominated. Instead, for the second period we found abnormal returns in enlarged time intervals.
在某些情况下,假日效应的经典形式,即在公共假期的前一个交易日和后一个交易日出现异常收益,可以被一种扩展形式所取代,即在更大的时间间隔内发现异常收益。本文探讨了假日效应在泛欧交易所AEX、CAC 40、ISEQ 20和PSI 20四个指数中的经典和扩展形式。我们进行了两个时期的调查:2000年1月至2011年12月和2012年1月至2020年6月。在第一个时期,结果表明传统形式的假日效应占主导地位。相反,在第二个时期,我们发现在扩大的时间间隔内出现了异常回报。
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引用次数: 1
On Regression of Total Value of Equity Toward Total Value of Debt in Europe 欧洲股权总价值对债务总价值的回归研究
Pub Date : 2020-07-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3653107
Aki Lappalainen
Results of Lappalainen (2020a, 2020b) suggest that total value of equity regresses toward total value of debt over time in the USA. Using methodology similar to Lappalainen (2020a, 2020b), I study if this regression is observable in 26 European countries and in Eurozone. I find that the regression is observable in Eurozone, Czechia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom but unobservable in Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. For the remaining countries Austria, Belgium, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, the results are mixed.
Lappalainen (2020a, 2020b)的结果表明,在美国,随着时间的推移,股权总价值向债务总价值回归。使用类似于Lappalainen (2020a, 2020b)的方法,我研究了这种回归是否在26个欧洲国家和欧元区可见。我发现,在欧元区、捷克、芬兰、法国、德国、爱尔兰、意大利、荷兰、瑞典和英国,这种回归是可以观察到的,但在保加利亚、塞浦路斯、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、葡萄牙、斯洛文尼亚和西班牙,这种回归是不可观察到的。其余的国家,奥地利、比利时、希腊、匈牙利、拉脱维亚、卢森堡、马耳他、波兰、罗马尼亚和斯洛伐克,结果好坏参半。
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引用次数: 0
Repo and Reverse Repo Activity of European Banks – Market Activity, Accounting and Disclosure 欧洲银行的回购和逆回购活动——市场活动、会计和披露
Pub Date : 2020-07-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3650388
Edgar Loew, Annika Patricia Michelle Riegel
Repurchase agreements are money market instruments that are used widely and for various purposes due to their simplicity and flexibility. The European repo market is quite concentrated, as 80% of the transactions is conducted be-tween the top 20 banks and 61.9% of the collaterals used in the European repo market are originated in the Eurozone. Especially, for Europe the repo market is more important than ever, as it reached an all-time high of EUR 7,351 billion in June 2018. Even though the repo market is quite extensive and important, with respect to repos, there has no literature been found, which deals with the disclosure requirements of IFRS 7 in the European banking industry so far. How disproportionate the attention paid to repos is, becomes apparent by examining the financial statement of one German bank. It was noticed, that the information provided on repos was not too extensive, even though repos ac-counted for approximately 39% of the bank’s total assets. The example of Lehman Brothers shows how important it is to formulate appropriate accounting standards that actually reflect the true nature of transactions. The extent of the financial crisis of 2007-2008 may have been reduced, if their troubled situation would have been disclosed honestly in the first place. As the mandatory requirements of IFRS 7 should ensure, that sufficient and decision-useful information to enable users of financial statements to under-stand the risks arising from repos is disclosed, the first step is to review, if the mandatory requirements are fulfilled. 38 IFRS 7 criteria were derived from these mandatory requirements. Besides these mandatory criteria, some supplementary information was gathered. The sample which was examined within this empirical analysis consists of 66 banks from 19 European countries. It will be shown from the 5-year averages that European banks only complied on average with 54%, i.e. only slightly more than half of the mandatory disclosure requirements of IFRS 7, which apply to repos.
回购协议是一种货币市场工具,由于其简单和灵活,被广泛用于各种目的。欧洲回购市场相当集中,80%的交易在前20家银行之间进行,欧洲回购市场使用的抵押品中有61.9%来自欧元区。特别是,对于欧洲来说,回购市场比以往任何时候都更加重要,因为它在2018年6月达到了73510亿欧元的历史新高。尽管回购市场是相当广泛和重要的,但在回购方面,迄今为止还没有发现关于IFRS 7在欧洲银行业披露要求的文献。通过检查一家德国银行的财务报表,人们对回购的关注是多么不成比例。值得注意的是,尽管回购约占银行总资产的39%,但所提供的关于回购的信息并不太广泛。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的例子表明,制定真正反映交易真实性质的适当会计准则是多么重要。如果它们的困境一开始就能被诚实地披露出来,2007-2008年金融危机的严重程度可能会降低。由于IFRS 7的强制性要求应确保披露充分且对决策有用的信息,以使财务报表使用者能够了解回购产生的风险,因此,如果符合强制性要求,第一步是复核。38项IFRS 7准则源自这些强制性要求。除了这些强制性标准外,还收集了一些补充资料。在这一实证分析中检验的样本包括来自19个欧洲国家的66家银行。从5年平均值来看,欧洲银行平均只遵守了54%,即仅略高于适用于回购的IFRS 7强制披露要求的一半。
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引用次数: 0
Kicking the Can Down the Road: Government Interventions in the European Banking Sector 把罐子踢到路上:政府对欧洲银行业的干预
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/W27537
V. Acharya, Maximilian Jager, Sascha Steffen, L. Steinruecke
We analyze government interventions in the eurozone banking sector during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Using a novel data set, we document that fiscally constrained governments “kicked the can down the road” by providing banks with guarantees instead of fully-fledged recapitalizations. We econometrically address the endogeneity associated with bailout decisions in identifying their consequences. We find that forbearance prompted undercapitalized banks to shift their assets from loans to risky sovereign debt and engage in zombie lending, resulting in weaker credit supply, elevated risk in the banking sector, and, eventually, a greater reliance on liquidity support from the European Central Bank.
我们分析了2008-2009年金融危机期间政府对欧元区银行业的干预。我们使用一个新的数据集证明,财政拮据的政府通过向银行提供担保而不是全面的资本重组,“把罐子踢到了后面”。我们用计量经济学的方法解决了与救助决策相关的内生性问题,以确定其后果。我们发现,容忍促使资本不足的银行将其资产从贷款转移到风险较高的主权债务,并参与僵尸贷款,导致信贷供应减弱,银行业风险上升,并最终更加依赖欧洲央行的流动性支持。
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引用次数: 50
Who Takes the Ecb's Targeted Funding? 谁会接受欧洲央行的定向融资?
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3644249
Olivier Vergote, T. Sugo
This paper investigates motives of banks to borrow funds from the ECB through its first two series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) allotted between September 2014 and March 2017. We quantify that the top-three parameters that determine banks’ take-up decisions are the price of the operation, the amount of eligible collateral of the bank, and the composition of that collateral. In particular, the opportunity for banks to transform their less liquid assets partly into liquid central bank reserves by pledging these assets as collateral with the central bank is a strong motive for take-up and suggests that accepting a broad set of collateral was important for the monetary easing provided by TLTROs. In addition, we find that the conditions attached to TLTRO participation and take-up played an important role in creating broad-based participation across banks of different financial strength and size.
本文研究了银行通过2014年9月至2017年3月分配的前两轮定向长期再融资操作(TLTROs)从欧洲央行借款的动机。我们量化了决定银行接受决定的前三个参数是操作的价格,银行合格抵押品的数量,以及抵押品的组成。特别是,银行有机会将流动性较差的资产部分转化为流动性较强的央行准备金,将这些资产作为抵押物向央行质押,这是一个强烈的动机,表明接受广泛的抵押物对tltro提供的货币宽松政策非常重要。此外,我们发现TLTRO参与和接受的附加条件在创造不同财务实力和规模的银行的广泛参与方面发挥了重要作用。
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引用次数: 5
“Is Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) efficient in weak form after introducing new indices from 2013?” “达卡证券交易所(DSE)在2013年推出新指数后,效率低下吗?”
Pub Date : 2020-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3764082
Md Khaled Hossain Rafi
Testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is considered one of the center points of modern financial economics. This research seeks to test the weak-form market efficiency of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) after the introduction of new indices from 2013 using DSE Broad Index (DSEX), DSE Shariah Index (DSES) and DSE selected 30 Index (DS30). Besides the primary objective of testing whether the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market shows efficiency in weak form or not i.e. market follows a random walk model or not after the introduction of new indices from 2013, this paper also widens its analysis on to test the impact of institutional factors in analyzing the volatility in the market and in exploring the relationship between risk and return.
有效市场假说的检验被认为是现代金融经济学的中心问题之一。本研究旨在测试达卡证券交易所(DSE)在2013年引入新指数后的弱形式市场效率,使用DSE广义指数(DSEX), DSE伊斯兰教指数(DSES)和DSE精选30指数(DS30)。除了测试达卡证券交易所(DSE)市场在2013年引入新指数后是否表现出弱形式的效率(即市场是否遵循随机漫步模型)的主要目标外,本文还将分析范围扩大到测试制度因素在分析市场波动和探索风险与收益关系方面的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Global Political Risk and International Stock Returns 全球政治风险与国际股票回报
Pub Date : 2020-06-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3242300
V. Gala, G. Pagliardi, S. Zenios
Using novel measures of politics-policy uncertainty we document predictable variation in stock market returns across countries. Country characteristics and existing global and local risk factors do not account for such predictability, leading to large abnormal returns, up to 15% per annum. We identify a global political risk factor (P-factor) commanding a risk premium of 11% per annum. Countries with high politics-policy uncertainty covary positively with the P-factor, thus earning higher average returns. Augmenting the global market portfolio with the P-factor significantly reduces pricing errors and improves cross-sectional fit. Politics-policy uncertainty affects returns through both cash flow and discount rate channels.
我们使用政治政策不确定性的新测量方法,记录了各国股市回报的可预测变化。国家特点以及现有的全球和当地风险因素没有考虑到这种可预测性,从而导致每年高达15%的巨大异常回报。我们发现全球政治风险因素(p因素)每年的风险溢价为11%。政治政策不确定性高的国家与p因子正相关,因此获得更高的平均回报。利用p因子扩大全球市场投资组合可显著减少定价误差并改善截面拟合。政治-政策的不确定性通过现金流和贴现率渠道影响回报。
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引用次数: 3
Finance in the Time of Coronavirus during 100 Days of Isolation: The Case of the European Stock Markets 隔离100天期间冠状病毒时期的金融:以欧洲股市为例
Pub Date : 2020-06-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3631517
N. Alber
This paper attempts to investigate the effects of Coronavirus spread on the European stock markets. Coronavirus spread has been measured by cumulative cases, new cases, cumulative deaths and new deaths, while abnormal return of stock market is measured according to market model. This has been applied on stock markets of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands Spain and UK, on daily basis during the period from Febreuary15, 2020 till May 24, 2020.

Results have NOT supported these anticipated effects using panel analysis according to GMM technique, for the whole research period. After splitting the research period into 7 sub-periods (2-weeks each), results indicate that abnormal return of stock market seems to be sensitive to Coronavirus cases more than deaths, and to Coronavirus cumulative indicators more than new ones.

Results provide that stock markets have reacted negatively to Coronavirus spread, where all of the 4 indicators seem to affect abnormal return of stock markets during the first and second period. Results don’t support any negative effects during the third and fourth periods. Starting from the fifth period, stock markets seem to be influenced negatively by “Relative Cumulative Coronavirus Deaths” (RCCD). Besides, country effect has been investigated, where stock markets of Germany, Netherlands and UK have been affected by Coronavirus spread during the second period. For Belgium, France, Italy and Spain, these effects have been supported during the fourth period.

A robustness check has been conducted using the 4 indicators of Coronavirus spread for each of the 7 periods. This has been applied on the 273 stocks of the 7 countries during the research period (100 days) and supports the effect of Coronavirus spread on abnormal returns of stock markets during the first and second periods. It’s important to pinpoint that this effect has been supported only for “Relative Cumulative Coronavirus Cases” (RCCC). Another robustness check has been conducted using market return instead of abnormal return, and supported this effect.

本文试图研究冠状病毒传播对欧洲股市的影响。用累计病例数、新增病例数、累计死亡人数和新增死亡人数来衡量冠状病毒的传播,用市场模型来衡量股市的异常回报。这已于2020年2月15日至2020年5月24日期间在比利时、法国、德国、意大利、荷兰、西班牙和英国的股票市场每日实施。在整个研究期间,根据GMM技术使用面板分析的结果不支持这些预期的影响。将研究周期分成7个子周期(每个子周期2周),结果表明,股市异常收益对冠状病毒病例的敏感性大于死亡病例,对冠状病毒累积指标的敏感性大于新发指标。结果表明,股市对冠状病毒传播的反应是负面的,在第一和第二阶段,4个指标似乎都影响了股市的异常回报。结果不支持在第三和第四阶段有任何负面影响。从第5个周期开始,股市似乎受到“冠状病毒相对累积死亡人数”(RCCD)的负面影响。此外,还调查了国家效应,德国、荷兰和英国的股票市场在第二阶段受到冠状病毒传播的影响。对于比利时、法国、意大利和西班牙,这些影响在第四个时期得到证实。对这7个时期中的每一个时期使用冠状病毒传播的4个指标进行了稳健性检查。这一结果在研究期间(100天)对7个国家的273只股票进行了分析,证实了新冠肺炎疫情对第一、第二阶段股市异常收益的影响。重要的是要指出,这种效应仅适用于“相对累积冠状病毒病例”(RCCC)。用市场收益代替异常收益进行稳健性检验,支持了这一效应。
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引用次数: 14
Should Denmark and Sweden Join the Banking Union? 丹麦和瑞典应该加入银行业联盟吗?
Pub Date : 2020-06-02 DOI: 10.1093/jfr/fjaa005
Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, D. Schoenmaker
An important policy discussion on joining the banking union is currently taking place in Denmark and Sweden. In this article we review the pros and cons of joining. The main rationale for joining the banking union is the importance of cross-border banking in the EU internal market. Reviewing the banking systems, we find that banks in Denmark and Sweden have the same cross-border characteristics as those in the euro area countries, suggesting a similar rationale for joining the banking union. Moreover, both countries have large banks which may be too big to save at country level, but not at the banking union level. Nevertheless, there are some governance concerns. While euro area countries have an automatic and full say in all banking union arrangements, the non-euro area countries (the ‘out’ countries) lack certain formal powers in ultimate decision-making; however, we find that this may be less of a problem in practice. If necessary, the ‘out’ countries would have the ‘nuclear option’ of leaving the banking union.
丹麦和瑞典目前正在就加入银行业联盟进行重要的政策讨论。在本文中,我们回顾了加入的利弊。加入银行业联盟的主要理由是跨境银行业在欧盟内部市场的重要性。回顾银行体系,我们发现丹麦和瑞典的银行与欧元区国家的银行具有相同的跨境特征,这表明加入银行业联盟的理由类似。此外,这两个国家都有大型银行,在国家层面上可能太大而无法拯救,但在银行业联盟层面上却并非如此。尽管如此,还是存在一些治理方面的问题。虽然欧元区国家在所有银行联盟安排中拥有自动和充分的发言权,但非欧元区国家(“脱欧”国家)在最终决策方面缺乏一定的正式权力;然而,我们发现这在实践中可能不是一个问题。如有必要,“脱欧”国家将有退出银行业联盟的“核选项”。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
European Finance eJournal
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