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Decarbonising Italy's district heating and cooling sector: drivers, barriers, and opportunities from stakeholder perspectives 意大利区域供热和供冷行业的脱碳:利益相关者视角的驱动因素、障碍和机遇
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102115
Paola Caputo , Giulio Ferla , Benedetta Mura , Nicola Cesare Di Nunzio
Even if in Italy district heating and cooling (DHC) accounts for only a small share of thermal energy demand, the sector, primarily based on fossil fuels, is expected to grow. Therefore, increasing the share of DHC and decarbonising the DHC sector are crucial for Italy's climate targets. This paper identifies the main barriers and drivers for Italy's DHC sector through a hybrid approach combining a normative review with direct engagement. Among others, the EU-funded SupportDHC project includes activities to highlight technical and non-technical barriers, supported by a structured capacity-building programme with key Italian operators and stakeholders, such as local administrators, associations, and authorities. Results underscore regulatory uncertainty, fragmented planning processes, insufficient economic incentives, technical integration issues, and limited public awareness as major obstacles. Stakeholders' collaboration proved effective in shaping consensus-based solutions, such as clearer policy frameworks, streamlined procedures, and enhanced investment mechanisms. The study concludes that integrating structured stakeholders' participation into policy and planning processes can substantially accelerate the expansion and decarbonisation of Italy's DHC systems.
即使在意大利,区域供热和供冷(DHC)仅占热能需求的一小部分,但该行业(主要基于化石燃料)预计将增长。因此,增加DHC的份额并使DHC部门脱碳对意大利的气候目标至关重要。本文通过将规范审查与直接参与相结合的混合方法,确定了意大利DHC部门的主要障碍和驱动因素。除此之外,欧盟资助的SupportDHC项目包括强调技术和非技术障碍的活动,由意大利主要运营商和利益相关者(如当地管理员、协会和当局)的结构化能力建设计划提供支持。结果强调,监管不确定性、规划过程碎片化、经济激励不足、技术整合问题和公众意识有限是主要障碍。事实证明,利益攸关方的合作在形成基于共识的解决方案方面是有效的,例如更明确的政策框架、简化的程序和加强的投资机制。该研究的结论是,将有组织的利益相关者参与到政策和规划过程中可以大大加速意大利DHC系统的扩张和脱碳。
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引用次数: 0
Factors shaping the expert perceptions of small modular reactors in Korea and Japan 影响专家对韩国和日本小型模块化反应堆看法的因素
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102109
Kirara Kashihara , Bonjun Koo , Seoyong Kim , Tadahiro Shibutani
As global decarbonization intensifies, nuclear energy has received renewed attention, primarily through small modular reactors (SMRs). Although prior studies have highlighted post-Fukushima shifts in nuclear perceptions, there are limited details regarding the factors driving SMR adoption. This study examines the factors influencing nuclear experts' perceptions of SMRs from the perspectives of nuclear experts in South Korea and Japan, two nations where nuclear power policies and public perceptions have evolved significantly since the Fukushima Daiichi disaster. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we evaluated four primary criteria—safety, economic feasibility, environmental impact, and social factors—through surveys of 45 Korean and 18 Japanese experts. The results indicated that safety is the primary driver in both contexts, with a particular focus on accident prevention and the secure and stable operation of reactors. However, Korean experts tended to emphasize waste management and greenhouse gas reduction, aligning with the country's focus on decarbonization, whereas Japanese experts underscored cost-effectiveness and cybersecurity, consistent with heightened risk awareness following the Fukushima disaster. These findings highlight that robust policy frameworks, clear incentives, and communication strategies are crucial for fostering public trust and accelerating SMR adoption. In nations where public skepticism regarding nuclear energy is high, transparency in risk management and alignment with broader clean energy objectives can reinforce perceptions. By integrating qualitative insights from expert hearings with quantitative AHP-based surveys, this study provides guidance to policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers as they consider the feasibility of SMRs in the transition to a more sustainable energy future.
随着全球脱碳的加剧,核能主要通过小型模块化反应堆(smr)重新受到关注。尽管先前的研究强调了福岛核事故后人们对核的看法发生了转变,但关于推动采用小型堆的因素的细节有限。本研究从韩国和日本的核专家的角度考察了影响核专家对小型反应堆看法的因素,这两个国家的核电政策和公众看法自福岛第一核电站灾难以来发生了重大变化。通过对45名韩国专家和18名日本专家的调查,我们使用层次分析法(AHP)评估了四个主要标准——安全性、经济可行性、环境影响和社会因素。结果表明,在这两种情况下,安全都是主要驱动因素,尤其关注事故预防和反应堆的安全稳定运行。然而,韩国专家倾向于强调废物管理和减少温室气体,这与该国对脱碳的关注相一致,而日本专家则强调成本效益和网络安全,这与福岛灾难后提高的风险意识相一致。这些发现突出表明,强有力的政策框架、明确的激励措施和沟通战略对于促进公众信任和加速采用小型管理系统至关重要。在公众对核能持高度怀疑态度的国家,风险管理的透明度以及与更广泛的清洁能源目标的一致性可以加强人们的看法。通过将专家听证会的定性见解与基于ahp的定量调查相结合,本研究为政策制定者、行业领导者和研究人员提供了指导,帮助他们考虑smr在向更可持续的能源未来过渡中的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring a paradox: Zero-negative electricity prices 衡量一个悖论:零负电价
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102108
Daniel Davi-Arderius , Tooraj Jamasb
The share of renewables and the number of hours with zero or negative prices in day-ahead markets are increasing in many countries. During these hours, some synchronous generators that are not scheduled are activated by system operators at a high cost to ensure minimum reliable operating conditions. As a result, customers experience a paradox when they see positive end costs during hours with zero-negative energy prices, which incentivizes them to reduce consumption when there is a surplus of renewable energy. We use ARMA-GARCH methods to analyze the costs of ancillary services in the Spanish power system (2023–2024) and their relationship with the hourly day-ahead prices and electricity demand. Cost of ancillary services increases by +0.045 €/MWh for each euro reduction in day-ahead prices, and by 0.182 €/MWh for each additional GWh of total scheduled energy demand. Our main conclusion is that, in a renewable-reliant system, electricity prices fail to signal customers, and the total operating system cost of electricity should consider the vertical sum of the energy cost and ancillary service cost. Similar results can be expected in other countries with a high share of renewable energy. Policy should prioritize reducing ancillary service costs to signal customers efficiently.
在许多国家,可再生能源的份额以及日前市场中零电价或负电价的小时数都在增加。在这段时间内,一些未被调度的同步发电机被系统操作员以高成本激活,以确保最低的可靠运行条件。因此,当客户在能源价格为零的情况下看到正的终端成本时,他们会遇到一个悖论,这激励他们在可再生能源过剩时减少消费。我们使用ARMA-GARCH方法来分析西班牙电力系统(2023-2024)的辅助服务成本及其与每小时日前价格和电力需求的关系。日前电价每降低1欧元,辅助服务成本就增加+0.045欧元/兆瓦时;计划总能源需求每增加1吉瓦时,辅助服务成本就增加0.182欧元/兆瓦时。我们的主要结论是,在一个依赖可再生能源的系统中,电价不能向客户发出信号,电力的总运营系统成本应该考虑能源成本和辅助服务成本的垂直总和。可再生能源占比较高的其他国家也会出现类似的结果。政策应优先考虑降低辅助服务成本,以有效地向客户发出信号。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Water Safety Plan outcomes and impacts in Bushenyi-Ishaka Municipality, Uganda 乌干达Bushenyi-Ishaka市水安全计划成果和影响评估
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102106
Christopher Kanyesigye , Giuliana Ferrero , Sara J. Marks , Charles B. Niwagaba , Robinah N. Kulabako , Frank Kansiime
The World Health Organization recommends Water Safety Plans (WSP) as the most effective means of ensuring safe drinking-water supply. WSP performance evaluation is necessary for improving water service delivery, scaling up, and motivating the roll out of WSP. In this study, the evaluation of WSP development and implementation was done in Bushenyi-Ishaka Municipality, a mid-sized semi-rural town in southwestern Uganda. Training of operations staff and the WSP team was done. Performance indicator data were collected before, during, and after 18 months of WSP implementation to determine the changes attributable to this intervention. Structured semi-quantitative questionnaires were used for data collection, which consisted of 11 progressive outcome indicators categorized under operational and institutional changes, and 14 short-term impact indicators categorized under water supply change. Results showed that WSP implementation enabled improvement in infrastructure, operational monitoring, customer engagement meetings, and training. Implementation of WSP did not result in improved catchment management, development and review of standard operating procedures and holding of internal meetings. Regarding short-term impacts, there was a significant improvement in compliance levels with drinking water quality standards, continuity of water supply, and customer satisfaction, as assessed by the frequency of complaints. There was, however, a significant reduction in the revenue-cost ratio (p = 0.001), likely due to an inadequate budget for implementing service expansion.
世界卫生组织建议将水安全计划作为确保安全饮用水供应的最有效手段。科进绩效评估对于改善供水服务交付、扩大规模和推动科进的推广是必要的。在这项研究中,对WSP的开发和实施进行了评估,该评估是在乌干达西南部的一个中型半农村城镇Bushenyi-Ishaka市进行的。对操作人员和科进团队进行了培训。在实施WSP之前、期间和之后的18个月收集了绩效指标数据,以确定该干预措施导致的变化。数据收集采用结构化半定量问卷,其中包括11个业务和制度变化分类的渐进式结果指标和14个供水变化分类的短期影响指标。结果显示,WSP的实施在基础设施、操作监控、客户参与会议和培训方面进行了改进。水务服务计划的实施并没有改善集水区的管理、制订和检讨标准作业程序,以及举行内部会议。就短期影响而言,在符合饮用水水质标准的水平、供水的连续性和顾客满意度(以投诉频率衡量)方面均有显著改善。然而,收入成本比显著降低(p = 0.001),可能是由于执行服务扩展的预算不足。
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引用次数: 0
Sectoral and macroeconomic implications of reducing implicit power sector subsidies in developing countries: Insights from Ethiopia 减少发展中国家隐性电力部门补贴的部门和宏观经济影响:来自埃塞俄比亚的见解
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102110
Amsalu Woldie Yalew
Policy reforms targeting implicit subsidies to public power utilities are expected to have repercussions on the electricity sector, as well as the rest of the economy. This study aims to glean insights into the potential direct and indirect effects of reforming implicit power sector subsidies in the context of low-income countries. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, it is demonstrated that a hypothetical reduction in implicit subsidies in Ethiopia would increase the share of off-grid sources in the total electricity supply and enhance production efficiency in the grid electricity sector, with no substantial impact on GDP.
针对公共电力公司隐性补贴的政策改革,预计将对电力行业以及其他经济领域产生影响。本研究旨在深入了解在低收入国家背景下改革电力部门隐性补贴的潜在直接和间接影响。使用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,证明了假设埃塞俄比亚隐性补贴的减少将增加离网源在总电力供应中的份额,并提高电网电力部门的生产效率,而对GDP没有实质性影响。
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引用次数: 0
Shaping electricity end-user behaviour for demand response using the COM-B model 利用COM-B模型塑造电力终端用户的需求响应行为
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102087
Daniele Stampatori , Sanchayan Banerjee , José Pablo Chaves Ávila
Electricity end users can contribute to the secure operation of the future power system by aligning their electricity consumption with the overall system's needs. To facilitate this, end users should receive economic signals that are economically optimal and behaviourally salient to guide their decisions. In fact, end users may not respond to economic signals solely based on economic evaluations. We propose a conceptual framework that describes ways in which key stakeholders can influence end-user behaviour in demand response programmes. We do this in two steps. First, we identify key stakeholders by examining demand response contracts. Second, we categorise literature on end-user behaviour in electricity demand response through the established Capability, Opportunity, Motivation – Behaviour (COM-B) model. We extend this model by integrating behaviourally informed tools that stakeholders can employ to facilitate end-user participation in demand response programmes. Our setup enables policymakers to better understand key behavioural determinants, allowing them to design behaviourally informed energy policies for demand response.
电力终端用户可以通过将其用电量与整个系统的需求保持一致,从而为未来电力系统的安全运行做出贡献。为了促进这一点,最终用户应该收到经济上最优和行为上显著的经济信号,以指导他们的决策。事实上,最终用户可能不会仅仅根据经济评价对经济信号作出反应。我们提出了一个概念性框架,描述了关键利益相关者在需求响应计划中影响最终用户行为的方式。我们分两步来做。首先,我们通过检查需求响应契约来确定关键的利益相关者。其次,我们通过建立的能力,机会,动机-行为(COM-B)模型对电力需求响应中终端用户行为的文献进行分类。我们通过整合利益相关者可以使用的行为信息工具来促进最终用户参与需求响应计划,扩展了这一模型。我们的设置使政策制定者能够更好地理解关键的行为决定因素,使他们能够根据需求响应设计符合行为的能源政策。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-sectoral effects of regulatory uncertainty: Lessons from Brazil 监管不确定性的跨部门影响:来自巴西的教训
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102105
Elias Cavalcante-Filho , Rodrigo De-Losso , Felipe Sande , José Roberto Savoia
This paper examines the multifaceted impact of regulatory changes on systemic risk within the affected sector and their contagion effects on other regulated industries. Using the sudden implementation of Brazilian legislation (Provisional Act No. 579/2012, which restructured the electricity sector) as a natural experiment, we assess whether such a policy shock increased market risk exposure for directly and indirectly affected firms. To estimate causal effects, we combine the Synthetic Control Method and Difference-in-Differences approaches, using CAPM betas as the measure of systemic risk for publicly traded firms between 2005 and 2018. The results indicate that PA579 significantly increased the systemic risk of electricity companies and also raised market risk in other regulated sectors, including highways, healthcare, gas, telephony, sanitation, and aviation. These findings highlight that abrupt regulatory interventions can propagate credibility shocks beyond their target sector, underscoring the importance of transparency and predictability in regulatory policy design.
本文考察了监管变化对受影响行业内系统性风险的多方面影响,以及它们对其他受监管行业的传染效应。利用巴西立法的突然实施(第579/2012号临时法案,该法案重组了电力部门)作为自然实验,我们评估了这种政策冲击是否会增加直接和间接受影响公司的市场风险敞口。为了估计因果关系,我们结合了综合控制方法和差分法,使用CAPM贝塔作为2005年至2018年间上市公司系统性风险的度量。结果表明,PA579显著增加了电力公司的系统性风险,也增加了其他受监管行业的市场风险,包括高速公路、医疗保健、天然气、电话、卫生和航空。这些研究结果强调,突然的监管干预可能会将信誉冲击传播到目标部门之外,从而强调了监管政策设计中透明度和可预测性的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A bi-level multi-objective optimization model for cross-provincial transfer fees to promote cooperation in renewable energy consumption 促进可再生能源消费合作的跨省转让费双层多目标优化模型
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102107
Juntao Zhen, Laijun Zhao, Chenchen Wang, Youfeng Cheng, Hongru Yi, Ke Wang
Under the guidance of peak carbon and neutrality goals and driven by its energy transition strategy, China introduced a renewable energy consumption responsibility mechanism. However, provinces currently act independently regarding electricity consumption, making it difficult to simultaneously reduce the costs of their renewable energy consumption responsibility weights (CRWs) while increasing electricity revenue. To solve this problem, we constructed a bi-level multi-objective cross-provincial renewable energy consumption transfer fees model (CTFM), in which the central government is the upper level and provincial governments are the lower level. The leader sets the prices for renewable energy consumption transfer fees to minimize the total cost caused by the CRWs and maximize electricity revenue within the cooperative region. Followers then respond to the leader's transfer fees by optimizing their electricity consumption strategies to reduce the cost of their CRW and increase electricity revenue. The model is solved using bi-level programming combined with a relaxation approach and is applied to a cooperative region comprising Beijing, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia. Compared with the independent approach, a transfer price of 0.351 CNY/kWh allowed the CTFM to reduce the fulfillment cost by 206.869 × 10^8 CNY (13.785 %) and increase electricity revenue by 1779.845 × 10^8 CNY (5.718 %). Sensitivity analysis showed how variations in provincial green electricity generation affected costs and revenues. Our results provide a reference for Chinese provinces to formulate cooperative electricity consumption strategies that balance costs and benefits, thereby promoting a green and low-carbon transition in the power sector.
在碳峰值和中和目标的指导下,在能源转型战略的推动下,中国推出了可再生能源消费责任机制。然而,目前各省在电力消费方面采取独立行动,很难在增加电力收入的同时降低其可再生能源消费责任权重(crw)的成本。为解决这一问题,本文构建了以中央政府为上一级,省级政府为下一级的双层多目标跨省可再生能源消费转移收费模型。领导者设定可再生能源消费转让费的价格,使crw造成的总成本最小,并使合作区域内的电力收益最大化。追随者通过优化他们的电力消费策略来响应领导者的转让费,从而降低他们的CRW成本,增加电力收入。该模型采用双层规划结合松弛法求解,并应用于北京、山东、河北、内蒙古四个合作区域。与独立方法相比,0.351元/千瓦时的转让价格使CTFM的履约成本降低206.869 × 10^8元(13.785%),电力收入增加1779.845 × 10^8元(5.718%)。敏感性分析显示了各省绿色发电的变化如何影响成本和收入。研究结果可为中国各省制定成本效益平衡的合作用电量战略,促进电力行业绿色低碳转型提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Techno-economic optimization of PV-battery systems in five Australian states 澳大利亚五个州光伏电池系统的技术经济优化
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102103
Omid Motamedisedeh , Sara Omrani , Robin Drogemuller , Geoffrey Walker , Faranak Zagia , Zahra Motamedi Sedeh
This paper presents a comprehensive techno-economic optimization model to examine how optimal configurations of residential PV-battery systems have evolved across five Australian states over a twelve-year period (2013/14 to 2024/25), driven by changes in policy, electricity tariffs, and technology costs. As the global leader in rooftop solar adoption, Australia offers a valuable case for understanding the long-term dynamics of distributed energy systems. Unlike previous studies that focus on a single metric or static analysis, this research provides three key contributions: (a) a multi-indicator framework that evaluates financial and technical performance using metrics such as Net Present Value, Selfe-Consumption and Selfe-Sufficiency ratios, Cost of Electricity, and Curtailed-Supply Fraction; (b) a long-term temporal analysis that compares optimal system configurations and performance indicators across twelve consecutive years; and (c) a geographically diverse case study across Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania to capture regional variation. Results show that PV systems consistently delivered substantial financial benefits across most states, with average IRRs of ∼20 % and household electricity costs reduced by around 35 %. The highest savings were observed in Queensland, where PV-battery systems cut household electricity costs by up to 72 % in 2023. In the early years, optimal PV sizes ranged from 4 to 6 kW but expanded to 15–16 kW in recent years due to declining technology costs. Battery adoption, which became financially viable only from 2023 onward, increased household self-sufficiency to an average of 60 % and up to 76 % in South Australia, although self-consumption fell to 30–40 % in some oversized systems. Tasmania was an outlier, where PV adoption was not financially attractive until after 2015, and batteries remained non-viable throughout the study period.
本文提出了一个全面的技术经济优化模型,以研究在政策、电价和技术成本变化的推动下,澳大利亚五个州在12年期间(2013/14至2024/25)住宅光伏电池系统的最佳配置是如何演变的。作为屋顶太阳能采用的全球领导者,澳大利亚为理解分布式能源系统的长期动态提供了一个有价值的案例。与以往专注于单一指标或静态分析的研究不同,本研究提供了三个关键贡献:(a)一个多指标框架,使用净现值、自用和自用比率、电力成本和缩减供应比例等指标评估财务和技术绩效;(b)连续12年比较最佳系统配置和性能指标的长期时间分析;(c)对昆士兰州、新南威尔士州、南澳大利亚州、维多利亚州和塔斯马尼亚州进行地理上多样化的案例研究,以捕捉地区差异。结果表明,光伏系统在大多数州持续带来可观的经济效益,平均内部收益率为20%,家庭电力成本降低了35%左右。省电最多的是昆士兰州,到2023年,那里的光伏电池系统将使家庭用电成本降低72%。在早期,最佳的光伏发电规模在4到6千瓦之间,但近年来由于技术成本的下降,扩大到15到16千瓦。从2023年开始,电池的采用才在经济上可行,将家庭自给率提高到平均60%,在南澳大利亚提高到76%,尽管在一些超大系统中,自给率下降到30 - 40%。塔斯马尼亚州是一个例外,在2015年之前,光伏的采用在经济上没有吸引力,在整个研究期间,电池仍然是不可行的。
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引用次数: 0
A synthesis of distributed energy resource impacts and regulatory responses with a focus on soft law 分布式能源影响和监管反应的综合,重点是软法律
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102104
Josh A. Dippenaar , Bernard Bekker , Kevin Foster , Megan Davies
The rapid proliferation of distributed energy resources (DERs), including solar PV, battery storage, and electric vehicles, is fundamentally transforming power systems worldwide. Regulatory frameworks for the grid integration of DERs have struggled to keep pace, resulting in widespread non-compliance and a range of technical and financial challenges. This paper introduces a novel, penetration-based synthesis that maps DER impacts – including distribution grid constraints, utility revenue pressures, system flexibility, and stability concerns according to the level of DER adoption. We foreground the role of soft law – non-binding guidelines, voluntary standards, and stakeholder coalitions – and the concept of transition work as critical mechanisms for adaptive regulation. Drawing on a systematic literature review and international case studies, we identify how these impacts emerge at different penetration levels and demonstrate how timely, flexible regulatory responses can mitigate risks. Our analysis shows that adaptive, equitable tariff design and collaborative institutional reform are essential for sustainable DER integration. We argue that soft law and transition work enable more responsive, anticipatory regulation than traditional hard law alone. These findings offer actionable pathways for policymakers, regulators, and utility managers seeking to address the evolving technical and institutional challenges of DER integration and accelerate the energy transition.
分布式能源(DERs)的迅速扩散,包括太阳能光伏、电池存储和电动汽车,正在从根本上改变全球的电力系统。DERs电网整合的监管框架一直在努力跟上步伐,导致广泛的不合规以及一系列技术和财务挑战。本文介绍了一种新颖的、基于渗透的综合方法,该方法可以根据采用DER的水平绘制DER影响图,包括配电网约束、公用事业收入压力、系统灵活性和稳定性问题。我们强调了软法律的作用——非约束性准则、自愿标准和利益相关者联盟——以及过渡工作的概念,它们是适应性监管的关键机制。通过系统的文献回顾和国际案例研究,我们确定了这些影响是如何在不同的渗透水平上出现的,并展示了及时、灵活的监管反应如何减轻风险。我们的分析表明,适应性、公平的关税设计和协作性的制度改革对于可持续的低成本地区一体化至关重要。我们认为,软法和过渡工作使监管比传统的硬法更有反应性和预见性。这些发现为政策制定者、监管机构和公用事业管理者提供了可行的途径,帮助他们解决分布式能源整合过程中不断变化的技术和制度挑战,并加速能源转型。
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