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Decision-making by power generators with alternative carbon allowance trading pathways: A case study of China 碳配额交易路径下发电企业的决策——以中国为例
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2026.102146
Yue Zhang , Xin-gang Zhao , Xiao-yu Li , Xuan Liu , Hao-yuan Liu
Carbon allowance trading by power generation enterprises, facilitated through both internal and external markets, is a crucial mechanism for harmonizing carbon allowances in accordance with trading policies. Various trading pathways significantly affect these enterprises' decisions to reduce emissions. This paper examines the carbon emission reduction decisions of participants in the Chinese power generation industry under varying carbon allowance trading pathways. The Stackelberg game model is employed to analyze the challenges faced by the power generation industry in reducing carbon emissions, which comprises larger firms with a larger installed capacity and smaller power generation companies. The research indicates that: (1) when considering external carbon trading exclusively, variations in carbon abatement cost coefficients allow the two parties to adopt substitutable roles to mitigate supply shortages in the market; (2) when internal and external carbon trading paths coexist, they can effectively buffer external market shocks and curb large profit fluctuations, and (3) carbon trading price volatility and allowance sufficiency significantly affect the economic outcomes of power firms. Carbon trading prices determine corporate profits, while the scarcity of allowances affects firms' marginal decisions more indirectly. A smaller installed capacity is more vulnerable to external price volatility and institutional constraints. (4) The adjustment of carbon allowance allocation significantly moderates the behavior of power producers. Under allowance scarcity and high abatement costs, high cost subjects take the initiative to withdraw from the market. In contrast, low-cost subjects benefit from carbon allowance trading or market pricing, resulting in the redistribution of resources and profits.
发电企业通过内部和外部市场进行碳配额交易,是根据交易政策协调碳配额的重要机制。不同的交易途径显著影响这些企业的减排决策。本文考察了不同碳配额交易路径下中国发电行业参与者的碳减排决策。采用Stackelberg博弈模型分析发电行业在减少碳排放方面面临的挑战,该行业包括装机容量较大的大型企业和规模较小的发电企业。研究表明:(1)当只考虑外部碳交易时,碳减排成本系数的变化允许交易双方采用替代角色来缓解市场供应短缺;(2)内外碳交易路径共存时,能有效缓冲外部市场冲击,抑制利润大幅波动;(3)碳交易价格波动和配额充分性显著影响电力企业的经济产出。碳交易价格决定企业利润,而配额的稀缺性更间接地影响企业的边际决策。装机容量较小更容易受到外部价格波动和体制限制的影响。(4)碳配额分配的调整显著调节了发电企业的行为。在补贴稀缺和减排成本高的情况下,高成本主体主动退出市场。相比之下,低成本主体从碳配额交易或市场定价中获益,从而导致资源和利润的再分配。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the carbon price shock: Electricity costs and employment reallocation in Europe 应对碳价格冲击:欧洲的电力成本和就业再分配
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2026.102144
Gert Bijnens , John Hutchinson , Arthur Saint Guilhem
Investments in renewable energy and carbon taxes aim to combat global warming but could significantly raise electricity prices, adversely affecting manufacturing employment. Analyzing over 200,000 firms, we find that the likelihood of job losses or reallocation increases with reliance on electricity as a production input, affecting regions such as Southern Germany and Northern Italy most. Financially constrained firms are particularly vulnerable, suggesting a role for monetary policy in mitigating the adverse employment effects of higher carbon prices. Fiscal strategies should carefully balance environmental objectives and equitable labor market outcomes, given the benefits of renewable energy and the need to shift employment not only across sectors but also between regions. Such a balanced approach is essential to limit the long-term distributional impacts of higher electricity prices caused by the “carbon shock,” i.e. a carbon-policy-driven price increase.
对可再生能源和碳税的投资旨在对抗全球变暖,但可能会大幅提高电价,对制造业就业产生不利影响。通过对20多万家公司的分析,我们发现,随着对电力作为生产投入的依赖,失业或重新分配的可能性增加,德国南部和意大利北部等地区受到的影响最大。财政拮据的公司尤其容易受到影响,这表明货币政策在减轻高碳价格对就业的不利影响方面发挥着作用。考虑到可再生能源的好处,以及不仅跨部门、跨地区转移就业的必要性,财政战略应谨慎平衡环境目标和公平的劳动力市场结果。这种平衡的方法对于限制“碳冲击”(即碳政策驱动的价格上涨)造成的高电价的长期分配影响至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Policy note: Mobilising private capital for European grids 政策说明:为欧洲电网调动私人资本
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2026.102142
Sabine Landwehr-Zloch, Markus Hehn
Achieving climate neutrality in the EU by 2050 will require an unprecedented expansion of cross-border electricity grids. However, the current investment model, which is dominated by national transmission system operators and characterised by limited public budgets, is leading to a persistent financing gap.
This Policy Note introduces a novel EU-wide regulatory-financial framework – a harmonised congestion-revenue-based cap-and-floor regime – designed to systematically mobilise diverse sources of private capital across all phases of grid development. By combining regulatory innovation with a multi-phase investment logic and separating asset ownership from system operation, the model opens the market to non-traditional investors while safeguarding system integrity. Unlike existing national regimes, the proposed structure aligns risk allocation, revenue regulation, and investor participation across Member States. Building on insights from transition finance research, the framework translates Europe's decarbonisation goals into a deployable investment architecture that links financial system diversity with effective and efficient grid development.
Aligned with Action 9 of the EU Action Plan for Grids and the revised TEN-E Regulation, the paper provides a tangible and scalable policy pathway to close the interconnector investment gap, enhance capital-market access, and accelerate Europe's grid transformation in support of climate neutrality.
到2050年,要在欧盟实现气候中和,就需要前所未有地扩大跨境电网。然而,目前的投资模式——由国家输电系统运营商主导,公共预算有限——正在导致持续的融资缺口。本政策说明介绍了一个新的欧盟范围内的监管金融框架——一个协调的基于拥堵收入的上限和下限制度——旨在系统地动员电网发展各个阶段的各种私人资本来源。该模式将监管创新与多阶段投资逻辑相结合,将资产所有权与系统运营分离,在保证系统完整性的同时,向非传统投资者开放市场。与现有的国家制度不同,拟议的结构使各成员国的风险分配、收入监管和投资者参与保持一致。该框架以转型金融研究的见解为基础,将欧洲的脱碳目标转化为可部署的投资架构,将金融体系多样性与有效和高效的电网发展联系起来。根据欧盟电网行动计划的行动9和修订后的TEN-E法规,该文件提供了一个切实可行的可扩展的政策途径,以缩小互联投资差距,加强资本市场准入,并加速欧洲电网转型,以支持气候中和。
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引用次数: 0
Electricity market restructuring in Thailand: Challenges and emerging policies 泰国电力市场重组:挑战与新政策
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102141
Paphangkon Thainthadaphat , Nopbhorn Leeprechanon , Tirapot Chandarasupsang , Annop Tananchana
Thailand is transitioning from a monopolistic electricity sector toward a more competitive market to improve efficiency, ensure fair cost allocation, and support national greenhouse gas reduction targets. This shift has accelerated the integration of renewable energy technologies at the distribution level and the adoption of policies such as Direct Power Purchase Agreements (Direct PPAs), Third Party Access (TPA), and Renewable Energy Communities (RECs). However, high penetration of variable renewable energy introduces supply uncertainty and operational complexity, posing challenges to grid stability. In the absence of a wholesale electricity market, Thailand must restructure its electricity system with a focus on distribution-level dynamics, where most new participants are connected. This paper examines key aspects of electricity market restructuring in Thailand, including the unbundling of regulated and non-regulated businesses, market design, balancing and settlement mechanisms, cost-reflective tariffs with equity considerations, and the creation of neutral market facilitation platforms. It proposes a system architecture tailored to emerging technologies and actors, addressing technical constraints and institutional realities. Drawing on international experience while reflecting domestic conditions, the study offers policy recommendations for a more inclusive, flexible, and sustainable electricity market. Its findings aim to guide Thailand's reform agenda and inform broader transition strategies in similar developing country contexts.
泰国正在从垄断的电力部门向更具竞争力的市场转型,以提高效率,确保公平的成本分配,并支持国家温室气体减排目标。这一转变加速了可再生能源技术在配电层面的整合,以及直接购电协议(Direct PPAs)、第三方接入(TPA)和可再生能源社区(RECs)等政策的采用。然而,可变可再生能源的高渗透率带来了供应的不确定性和运行的复杂性,对电网的稳定性提出了挑战。在缺乏批发电力市场的情况下,泰国必须重组其电力系统,重点关注配电层面的动态,因为大多数新参与者都是连接在一起的。本文研究了泰国电力市场重组的关键方面,包括受监管和不受监管业务的分拆、市场设计、平衡和结算机制、考虑公平因素的成本反射关税,以及建立中立的市场便利化平台。它提出了一个针对新兴技术和行动者的系统架构,解决了技术限制和体制现实。本研究在借鉴国际经验的同时,也反映了国内的实际情况,为建立更具包容性、灵活性和可持续性的电力市场提出了政策建议。其研究结果旨在指导泰国的改革议程,并为类似发展中国家的更广泛转型战略提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-01-01
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引用次数: 0
Competition and synergy effects of the horizontal integration for regional ports 区域港口横向整合的竞争与协同效应
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102134
Junjin Wang, Kangrui Xu
This paper explores the interaction between homogeneous service competition and cooperation in the context of horizontal integration among regional ports. A three-stage non-cooperative game model is proposed to systematically examine this intricate relationship. The results indicate that regional port integration reduces port service fees and freight rates while simultaneously increasing freight volumes. Notably, the reduction in port service fees achieved through collective integration effort may not substantially exceed that achieved by a single port, because in the early stage of regional port integration, the strong competition effect often outweighs the relatively weak synergy effect. The relative dominance of the competition effect over the synergy effect impacts both the stability of the system equilibrium and the conflict between individual optimization and system objectives. When the competition effect surpasses the synergy effect, the integration effort resembles the Prisoner's Dilemma, leading to a lose-lose outcome. Conversely, when the synergy effect outweighs the competition effect, the integration effort reaches a Pareto optimum, resulting in a mutually beneficial win-win outcome. Furthermore, the stronger regional port consistently exhibits economies of scale and dominates the social welfare, while the weaker port may need to actively engage in integration effort, depending on the disparity in port capabilities.
本文探讨区域港口横向整合背景下同质服务竞争与合作的互动关系。提出了一个三阶段非合作博弈模型来系统地考察这种复杂的关系。结果表明,区域港口一体化降低了港口服务费和运价,同时增加了货运量。值得注意的是,通过集体整合实现的港口服务费的降低可能不会大大超过单个港口的降低,因为在区域港口整合的早期阶段,强大的竞争效应往往超过相对较弱的协同效应。竞争效应对协同效应的相对优势既影响了系统均衡的稳定性,也影响了个体优化与系统目标的冲突。当竞争效应超过协同效应时,整合努力类似于囚徒困境,导致双输的结果。相反,当协同效应大于竞争效应时,整合努力达到帕累托最优,从而产生互利共赢的结果。此外,实力较强的区域港口始终表现出规模经济并主导社会福利,而实力较弱的港口可能需要积极参与一体化努力,这取决于港口能力的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating residential drinking water bills across small and medium-sized municipal systems 调查中小型市政系统的居民饮用水账单
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102138
Laura Medwid , Kate Albrecht , Deborah Anne Carroll , Christelle Khalaf , Dan Huang , Jun Li , Jason Mitchnick , Daniel Zoh
Empirical studies of water utilities often focus on large urban systems, in part because data on smaller providers are limited. This paper contributes to the literature on small and medium-sized water systems by leveraging novel data collected through direct outreach to primary governmental community water systems (CWSs) in Illinois, outside the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Specifically, the analysis focuses on municipalities that provide drinking water to populations of 10,000 or fewer. Using a hierarchical linear model that accounts for similarities among CWSs inherent to reliance on comparable water sources and provision methods, the paper examines how system attributes, billing policy and practices, infrastructure financing, and municipal characteristics relate to standardized residential water bills. The findings suggest that rate structure types, billing frequency, sewer service provision, and peer pricing are correlated with water bills issued by small- and medium-sized systems. Further, water source and provision characteristics are strongly associated with water bills, with municipalities sourcing from groundwater charging the least, compared to other source and provision categories. Overall, except for average household size, municipal characteristics are not associated with water bills.
对自来水公司的实证研究往往集中在大型城市系统,部分原因是关于较小供应商的数据有限。本文通过利用通过直接联系伊利诺伊州芝加哥大都会区以外的主要政府社区供水系统(cws)收集的新数据,为中小型供水系统的文献做出了贡献。具体来说,该分析侧重于向10,000或更少人口提供饮用水的市政当局。本文使用了一个层次线性模型,该模型解释了CWSs对可比水源和供应方法的依赖所固有的相似性,并研究了系统属性、计费政策和实践、基础设施融资和市政特征与标准化住宅水费之间的关系。研究结果表明,费率结构类型、计费频率、下水道服务提供和同行定价与中小型系统的水费相关。此外,水源和供水特性与水费密切相关,与其他水源和供水类别相比,市政当局从地下水中取水收费最低。总的来说,除了平均家庭规模外,市政特征与水费无关。
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引用次数: 0
Grid assessment of community-driven renewable energy technology and storage integration in rural Yucatan, Mexico 墨西哥尤卡坦农村社区驱动的可再生能源技术和储能整合电网评估
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102139
Francisco Javier Mendoza-Vizcaino, O. Canto-Franco, Manuel Flota-Bañuelos, M.A. Escalante Soberanis
This study focuses on integrating renewable energy technologies and storage systems into Pixya’s rural electrical grid, a Mayan community in Yucatán, Mexico. The project aims to reduce reliance on the utility grid, ensure uninterrupted electricity and water supply, and alleviate energy poverty. Using a deterministic methodology, the study designs a hybrid system combining photovoltaic panels and lithium-ion batteries, enabling the community to operate autonomously during grid outages. The proposed system generates 100% of the community’s energy needs, provides up to 14 days of autonomy, and significantly reduces CO2 emissions. Simulations using HOMER Pro and DIgSILENT confirm the technical feasibility and ensure stable operation under both grid-on and off-grid modes. The economic analysis reveals a payback period of 8.35–13.45 years, contingent upon subsidies or grants, as traditional financing remains unfeasible. This range considers two distinct tariffs: the subsidised, low-consumption residential tariff (Tariff 1C) at US$0.0687/kWh and the non-subsidised domestic tariff (DAC type) at US$0.2943/kWh. A novel arrangement model (to develop a novel contract type) is proposed to enable self-supply and energy injection into the grid, addressing current regulatory barriers to autonomous operation. The project aligns with Mexico’s energy transition goals and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 7, promoting clean energy access and fostering community empowerment. However, successful implementation necessitates policy adjustments, external funding, and a shift from economic to social priorities to ensure equitable development for rural indigenous communities.
这项研究的重点是将可再生能源技术和存储系统整合到墨西哥Yucatán的玛雅社区Pixya的农村电网中。该项目旨在减少对公用电网的依赖,确保不间断的电力和水供应,并缓解能源贫困。使用确定性方法,该研究设计了一个结合光伏板和锂离子电池的混合系统,使社区能够在电网中断时自主运行。该系统可以满足社区100%的能源需求,提供长达14天的自主权,并显著减少二氧化碳排放。使用HOMER Pro和DIgSILENT进行的仿真验证了技术可行性,并确保在并网和离网模式下都能稳定运行。经济分析显示,回收期为8.35年至13.45年,取决于补贴或赠款,因为传统融资仍然不可行的。这个范围考虑了两种不同的关税:补贴的低消耗住宅关税(关税1C)为0.0687美元/千瓦时,非补贴的国内关税(DAC类型)为0.2943美元/千瓦时。提出了一种新的安排模型(开发一种新的合同类型),以实现电网的自我供应和能量注入,解决当前自主运行的监管障碍。该项目符合墨西哥的能源转型目标和联合国可持续发展目标7,旨在促进清洁能源的获取和促进社区赋权。然而,成功的执行需要政策调整、外部资金和从经济优先转向社会优先,以确保农村土著社区的公平发展。
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引用次数: 0
The sustainable economic growth implications of expanding the electricity network: can early investment reduce consumer costs and support greater GDP and jobs gains? 扩大电网对可持续经济增长的影响:早期投资能否降低消费者成本并支持更大的GDP和就业增长?
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102140
Antonios Katris, Anas Karkoutli, Karen Turner
In 2024, the UK Government introduced a statutory ‘Growth Duty’ on the energy industry regulator Ofgem. One implication is that industry actors must explain how proposed investments might enable sustainable economic growth processes when submitting their business plans as part of the regulated energy price control system. The first instance of this requirement affected the three GB electricity transmission owners (TOs) when submitting business plans in late 2024 for the RIIO-T3 period, which will run from April 2026 through to March 2031. This paper reports results and insights from independent research drawing on the investment plans of one of the three TOs in a set of economy-wide scenario simulations using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the UK economy. A central finding is that our results indicate that undertaking early, planned investment at pace in anticipation of projected rising electricity demand, in response to the UK Government's electrification policies, is likely to deliver substantially stronger GDP and employment outcomes than a reactionary investment approach. This outcome is due to both an increased scale of earlier investment and the early creation of some excess capacity, which introduces downward marginal pressure on electricity bills. Moreover, where the latter is sufficient to offset the user bill impacts of investment cost recovery, the net outcome for UK households becomes progressive. The commonly expected outcome of cost recovery through energy bills being regressive does, however, manifest if electricity prices do not adjust in a competitive manner.
2024年,英国政府对能源行业监管机构Ofgem引入了法定“增长税”。其中一个含义是,行业参与者在提交其商业计划作为受监管的能源价格控制系统的一部分时,必须解释拟议的投资如何能够实现可持续的经济增长过程。这一要求的第一个实例影响了3gb电力传输所有者(TOs)在2024年底提交RIIO-T3期间的商业计划时,该期间将从2026年4月持续到2031年3月。本文报告了独立研究的结果和见解,这些研究利用英国经济的动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,对三家TOs之一的投资计划进行了一组全经济情景模拟。一个重要的发现是,我们的研究结果表明,根据英国政府的电气化政策,在预计电力需求上升的情况下,尽早进行有计划的投资,可能会比保守的投资方式带来更强劲的GDP和就业结果。这一结果是由于早期投资规模的扩大和一些过剩产能的早期产生,这给电费带来了边际下行压力。此外,如果后者足以抵消投资成本回收对用户账单的影响,那么英国家庭的净结果将是渐进的。然而,如果电价不以竞争的方式调整,通过能源账单收回成本的普遍预期结果确实是递减的。
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引用次数: 0
Governance and market dynamics of P2P energy trading: Enhancing national strategies in Malaysia and Thailand P2P能源交易的治理和市场动态:加强马来西亚和泰国的国家战略
IF 4.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102102
Siripha Junlakarn , Phimsupha Kokchang , Stephanie Cheah Kay Ann , Tam Duc Dinh , Tan Chee Pin , Tan Wen Shan , Chong Yit Sean
Peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading is gaining global traction. However, its path in ASEAN is less understood, particularly in areas where it has not yet been commercialized. Implementation in contexts like Malaysia and Thailand, for instance, remains particularly under-examined. This study provides an in-depth comparative analysis using a comprehensive macro-meso-micro framework to examine how national policies, regulatory mechanisms, and actor-level interactions shape P2P solar energy trading systems. Based on 25 stakeholder interviews and secondary data, the study highlights significant differences in institutional coordination, commercialization strategies, and private sector involvement, while also indicating common challenges, such as regulatory barriers and outdated grid infrastructure. While Malaysia's centralized pilot stresses tariff-setting and regulatory control, Thailand's sandbox model promotes diverse participation and business model innovation. The results underscore the clear commercialization pathways, market restructuring, and smart grid investments necessary to support scalable and inclusive P2P energy trading. This study offers novel insights into how governance structures influence the diffusion of innovation and facilitate the development of decentralized energy markets. These findings offer valuable lessons for developing effective energy policies in other emerging economies.
点对点(P2P)能源交易正在获得全球的牵引力。然而,人们对其在东盟的路径知之甚少,特别是在尚未商业化的地区。例如,马来西亚和泰国等国的实施情况仍未得到充分审查。本研究采用宏观-中观-微观的综合框架,对国家政策、监管机制和行动者层面的互动如何影响P2P太阳能交易系统进行了深入的比较分析。基于25个利益相关者访谈和二手数据,该研究强调了机构协调、商业化战略和私营部门参与方面的重大差异,同时也指出了共同的挑战,如监管障碍和过时的电网基础设施。马来西亚的集中式试点强调关税设定和监管控制,而泰国的沙盒模式则促进多元化参与和商业模式创新。研究结果强调了明确的商业化途径、市场重组和智能电网投资对于支持可扩展和包容性的P2P能源交易是必要的。本研究对治理结构如何影响创新扩散和促进分散能源市场的发展提供了新颖的见解。这些发现为其他新兴经济体制定有效的能源政策提供了宝贵的经验。
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