Pub Date : 2024-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101851
Cristobal Bistuer-Talavera , Joan Llobet-Dalmases , Dolors Plana-Erta , Jorge M. Uribe
The renewable energy transition depends heavily on capital structure decisions of energy firms. Most previous research has focused on the decisions of oil companies. This study investigates the financing of new investment in the Spanish renewable energy sector, including decisions about: i) equity versus debt, ii) short versus long-term debt, and iii) equity issuances versus retained earnings for new investment. Our analysis is based on data from over 22,000 energy firms from 2008 to 2021 and shows that these firms prefer debt over equity (more than 90% of changes in assets are financed through increasing debt) and have extended the term of the debt over the period studied (reaching a maximum of almost 73% long-term debt in 2021). The deployment of retained earnings is less usual than raising new equity capital. Our analysis points to a generalized use of project finance to support new investments. Policymakers should focus on increasing financing through equity and thus diversifying the financial risk of the energy transition. In addition, a supportive fiscal policy and a stable regulatory environment are desirable for achieving this goal.
{"title":"Capital structure decisions in the energy transition: Insights from Spain","authors":"Cristobal Bistuer-Talavera , Joan Llobet-Dalmases , Dolors Plana-Erta , Jorge M. Uribe","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101851","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101851","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The renewable energy transition depends heavily on capital structure decisions of energy firms. Most previous research has focused on the decisions of oil companies. This study investigates the financing of new investment in the Spanish renewable energy sector, including decisions about: i) equity versus debt, ii) short versus long-term debt, and iii) equity issuances versus retained earnings for new investment. Our analysis is based on data from over 22,000 energy firms from 2008 to 2021 and shows that these firms prefer debt over equity (more than 90% of changes in assets are financed through increasing debt) and have extended the term of the debt over the period studied (reaching a maximum of almost 73% long-term debt in 2021). The deployment of retained earnings is less usual than raising new equity capital. Our analysis points to a generalized use of project finance to support new investments. Policymakers should focus on increasing financing through equity and thus diversifying the financial risk of the energy transition. In addition, a supportive fiscal policy and a stable regulatory environment are desirable for achieving this goal.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101851"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142529548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101849
Qi Tian , Tao Zhao , Rong Yuan
This study analyzes the nexus of electricity infrastructure investment (EII), rural household income, and household carbon emissions (HCEs) using panel data from China's 30 provinces from 2003 to 2020. Firstly, we consider the impact of EII on the direct HCEs (DHCEs) caused by the direct consumption of fossil fuels and investigate the mediating effect of income level and income variance. The empirical results show that the growth of EII reduces rural DHCEs through the transmission channels of income level, whereas income variance limits the negative relationship between EII and DHCEs. Then, we estimate the emissions embodied in household expenditure on goods and services of different income groups, that is, indirect HCEs (IHCEs), and develop a counterfactual scenario to assess the effects of EII on the total HCEs (the sum of DHCEs and IHCEs) in 2017. The scenario analysis indicates that without increased EII in 2017, the total national HCEs would increase by 0.9%, mainly due to the increased per capita HCEs of low-income groups (+11.6%). Besides, the total HCEs in ten provinces are influenced significantly by the change of income distribution driven by the change of EII, with Guangdong experiencing the largest decrease of HCEs (2.6 Mt) due to the movements of residents from the lower-income group to the lowest-income group. Thus, there is a trade-off between HCE reduction and poverty alleviation when developing EII in rural China.
{"title":"The nexus of electricity infrastructure investment, household income, and carbon emissions in rural China","authors":"Qi Tian , Tao Zhao , Rong Yuan","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study analyzes the nexus of electricity infrastructure investment (EII), rural household income, and household carbon emissions (HCEs) using panel data from China's 30 provinces from 2003 to 2020. Firstly, we consider the impact of EII on the direct HCEs (DHCEs) caused by the direct consumption of fossil fuels and investigate the mediating effect of income level and income variance. The empirical results show that the growth of EII reduces rural DHCEs through the transmission channels of income level, whereas income variance limits the negative relationship between EII and DHCEs. Then, we estimate the emissions embodied in household expenditure on goods and services of different income groups, that is, indirect HCEs (IHCEs), and develop a counterfactual scenario to assess the effects of EII on the total HCEs (the sum of DHCEs and IHCEs) in 2017. The scenario analysis indicates that without increased EII in 2017, the total national HCEs would increase by 0.9%, mainly due to the increased per capita HCEs of low-income groups (+11.6%). Besides, the total HCEs in ten provinces are influenced significantly by the change of income distribution driven by the change of EII, with Guangdong experiencing the largest decrease of HCEs (2.6 Mt) due to the movements of residents from the lower-income group to the lowest-income group. Thus, there is a trade-off between HCE reduction and poverty alleviation when developing EII in rural China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101849"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142529546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101848
Yanbin Li , Chang Liu , Jiani Wang , Yuan Wang , Xiuqi Yang , Yun Li
Data fraud affects the carbon emissions trading market order. This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model among environmental authorities, power generation enterprises, and third-party verification agencies; systematically analyzes the evolutionary laws and evolutionary stabilization strategies of the three parties; conducts simulation analysis and parameter impact analysis of four carbon emission accounting scenarios, explores the causes of data fraud and puts forward policy implications. The research can provide the theoretical basis for the Chinese government to improve the carbon emission regulation system and can also be used as a reference for other countries' carbon emission data quality control.
{"title":"Data fraud in the carbon emissions trading market: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis from China","authors":"Yanbin Li , Chang Liu , Jiani Wang , Yuan Wang , Xiuqi Yang , Yun Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Data fraud affects the carbon emissions trading market order. This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model among environmental authorities, power generation enterprises, and third-party verification agencies; systematically analyzes the evolutionary laws and evolutionary stabilization strategies of the three parties; conducts simulation analysis and parameter impact analysis of four carbon emission accounting scenarios, explores the causes of data fraud and puts forward policy implications. The research can provide the theoretical basis for the Chinese government to improve the carbon emission regulation system and can also be used as a reference for other countries' carbon emission data quality control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101848"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142529118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101845
Bojan Jovanović, Dragana Šarac, Nataša Čačić
Given the uncertain position and specific role of postal incumbents in Europe, creating a framework for mutual comparison is essential. In this regard, this study aims to develop a methodology that will compare their relevant performance. On the other hand, management and host countries can be promptly alerted if something hinders postal incumbents from providing optimal performance. Two methods have been applied: the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and its variation, Best-Middle-Worst (BMW)-TOPSIS, on a sample of 16 incumbents from the EU and candidate countries. The results indicate that a finer adjustment is achieved in terms of ranking by the BMW-TOPSIS method. An open question regarding the selection of postal incumbents is whether it is necessary to strictly adhere to the rule that the number of their attributes is less than or equal to half of the attributes of the Middle point. The example of Latvia shows that if an alternative contains values from which the Best point is composed, an exception can be made in the selection. The development of the Middle point provides an opportunity for a more in-depth analysis, especially in cases where the values of the criteria differ significantly. Unlike classical TOPSIS, it offers a clearer visualization that supports the understanding of postal incumbents and their performance.
{"title":"Performance benchmarking of European postal incumbents with TOPSIS and BMW-TOPSIS","authors":"Bojan Jovanović, Dragana Šarac, Nataša Čačić","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101845","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101845","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the uncertain position and specific role of postal incumbents in Europe, creating a framework for mutual comparison is essential. In this regard, this study aims to develop a methodology that will compare their relevant performance. On the other hand, management and host countries can be promptly alerted if something hinders postal incumbents from providing optimal performance. Two methods have been applied: the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and its variation, Best-Middle-Worst (BMW)-TOPSIS, on a sample of 16 incumbents from the EU and candidate countries. The results indicate that a finer adjustment is achieved in terms of ranking by the BMW-TOPSIS method. An open question regarding the selection of postal incumbents is whether it is necessary to strictly adhere to the rule that the number of their attributes is less than or equal to half of the attributes of the Middle point. The example of Latvia shows that if an alternative contains values from which the Best point is composed, an exception can be made in the selection. The development of the Middle point provides an opportunity for a more in-depth analysis, especially in cases where the values of the criteria differ significantly. Unlike classical TOPSIS, it offers a clearer visualization that supports the understanding of postal incumbents and their performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101845"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142442114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101844
Benard M. Wabukala , Olvar Bergland , Nicholas Mukisa , Muyiwa S. Adaramola , Susan Watundu , Laura A. Orobia , Nichodemus Rudaheranwa
Reliable, accessible, affordable, and sustainable electricity systems are fundamental to modern and progressive economies. For developing societies, particularly those with fragile power generation capabilities and electricity networks, the electricity security metrics are incomparable and remain untested. A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method that follows an entropy-based weighting system is employed to quantitatively evaluate and construct an Electricity Security Index (ESI) for Uganda. Results reveal that Uganda is “moderately” electricity secure. Out of the maximum possible score of 100, a year-on-year analysis indicates that the ESI score was highest in 2007 (56) and the lowest was registered in 2015 (39). Based on the VIKOR technique, it is observed that electricity reliability contributes the most to the ESI, while electricity access contributes the least. Although expansion of electricity generation capacity is necessary, energy policies should, in equal measure, prioritize adequate investments in robust and modern transmission and distribution infrastructure. A riveting policy implication is that governance quality enhances a country's electricity system by reinforcing the other dimensions of electricity security.
可靠、方便、可负担和可持续的电力系统是现代和进步经济体的基础。对于发展中社会,尤其是那些发电能力和电网脆弱的社会,电力安全指标是无法比拟的,也是未经检验的。采用基于熵权系统的多标准决策(MCDM)方法,对乌干达的电力安全指数(ESI)进行了定量评估和构建。结果显示,乌干达的电力安全程度为 "中等"。在最高可能得分 100 分中,逐年分析表明,2007 年的 ESI 得分最高(56 分),2015 年最低(39 分)。根据 VIKOR 技术,可以看出电力可靠性对 ESI 的贡献最大,而电力供应对 ESI 的贡献最小。虽然扩大发电能力是必要的,但能源政策也应同样优先考虑对强大的现代化输配电基础设施进行适当投资。一个引人入胜的政策含义是,治理质量可以通过加强电力安全的其他方面来增强一个国家的电力系统。
{"title":"Electricity security in Uganda: Measurement and policy priorities","authors":"Benard M. Wabukala , Olvar Bergland , Nicholas Mukisa , Muyiwa S. Adaramola , Susan Watundu , Laura A. Orobia , Nichodemus Rudaheranwa","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101844","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101844","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliable, accessible, affordable, and sustainable electricity systems are fundamental to modern and progressive economies. For developing societies, particularly those with fragile power generation capabilities and electricity networks, the electricity security metrics are incomparable and remain untested. A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method that follows an entropy-based weighting system is employed to quantitatively evaluate and construct an Electricity Security Index (ESI) for Uganda. Results reveal that Uganda is “moderately” electricity secure. Out of the maximum possible score of 100, a year-on-year analysis indicates that the ESI score was highest in 2007 (56) and the lowest was registered in 2015 (39). Based on the VIKOR technique, it is observed that electricity reliability contributes the most to the ESI, while electricity access contributes the least. Although expansion of electricity generation capacity is necessary, energy policies should, in equal measure, prioritize adequate investments in robust and modern transmission and distribution infrastructure. A riveting policy implication is that governance quality enhances a country's electricity system by reinforcing the other dimensions of electricity security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101844"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142432082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101841
Mihaela Simionescu , Javier Cifuentes-Faura
Energy policies to address fuel poverty must consider digital transformation, as the entire policy framework needs to be managed as an interconnected system. This analysis explores how internet development and renewable energy consumption affected energy poverty in Central and Eastern European countries. By applying mean group estimators and quantile regression, the study shows that better internet access and foreign direct investment reduce energy poverty, as evidenced by fewer utility bill arrears and more households maintaining warmth. These results highlight the need for a unified policy integrating digital and renewable energy strategies to address energy poverty effectively.
{"title":"The digital economy and energy poverty in Central and Eastern Europe","authors":"Mihaela Simionescu , Javier Cifuentes-Faura","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101841","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101841","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy policies to address fuel poverty must consider digital transformation, as the entire policy framework needs to be managed as an interconnected system. This analysis explores how internet development and renewable energy consumption affected energy poverty in Central and Eastern European countries. By applying mean group estimators and quantile regression, the study shows that better internet access and foreign direct investment reduce energy poverty, as evidenced by fewer utility bill arrears and more households maintaining warmth. These results highlight the need for a unified policy integrating digital and renewable energy strategies to address energy poverty effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101841"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-08DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101842
Miriam Tourgeman, Chen Cohen, Ofir Rubin
Despite global efforts, many countries struggle to meet renewable energy targets. In 2022, Israel's renewable energy accounted for only 10% of its electricity generation despite its abundant solar resources. This study analyzes the outcomes of three tenders for photovoltaic (PV) facilities aimed at advancing national renewable energy goals. The results reveal lower production costs but increased market concentration, with a 50% reduction in the number of winning firms, consolidating around major players. While efficiency has improved, the exit of smaller, less competitive firms raises concerns about long-term dominance. Cournot oligopoly simulations predict rising concentration and market power.
{"title":"Preserving competition and economic welfare in Israel's PV market","authors":"Miriam Tourgeman, Chen Cohen, Ofir Rubin","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101842","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101842","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite global efforts, many countries struggle to meet renewable energy targets. In 2022, Israel's renewable energy accounted for only 10% of its electricity generation despite its abundant solar resources. This study analyzes the outcomes of three tenders for photovoltaic (PV) facilities aimed at advancing national renewable energy goals. The results reveal lower production costs but increased market concentration, with a 50% reduction in the number of winning firms, consolidating around major players. While efficiency has improved, the exit of smaller, less competitive firms raises concerns about long-term dominance. Cournot oligopoly simulations predict rising concentration and market power.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101842"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-07DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101843
Alexander Wimmers , Christian von Hirschhausen
With nuclear reactor fleets continuously aging, the decommissioning of closed reactors is gaining increasing attention. In nuclear decommissioning, technical, organizational, and regulatory challenges lead to long project durations and cost escalations. This paper attempts to examine the organizational efficiencies in nuclear decommissioning by applying the framework of the "system good" analysis and assessments based on new institutional economics. It compares the former parent-body-organization model practiced in the United Kingdom with current approaches observed in the United States, highlighting potential gains and policy recommendations for private sector involvement in nuclear decommissioning. Inefficiencies experienced in the United Kingdom include regulatory issues, private actors' opportunism, and information asymmetries. Comparatively, the models observed in the United States show fewer such issues, but regulators should address potential profit-driven shortcuts and funding adequacy.
{"title":"Organizational models for the decommissioning of nuclear power plants: Lessons from the United Kingdom and the United States","authors":"Alexander Wimmers , Christian von Hirschhausen","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101843","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101843","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With nuclear reactor fleets continuously aging, the decommissioning of closed reactors is gaining increasing attention. In nuclear decommissioning, technical, organizational, and regulatory challenges lead to long project durations and cost escalations. This paper attempts to examine the organizational efficiencies in nuclear decommissioning by applying the framework of the \"system good\" analysis and assessments based on new institutional economics. It compares the former parent-body-organization model practiced in the United Kingdom with current approaches observed in the United States, highlighting potential gains and policy recommendations for private sector involvement in nuclear decommissioning. Inefficiencies experienced in the United Kingdom include regulatory issues, private actors' opportunism, and information asymmetries. Comparatively, the models observed in the United States show fewer such issues, but regulators should address potential profit-driven shortcuts and funding adequacy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101843"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142420371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101840
Shahriyar Mukhtarov
This paper explores the effect of oil price, gross domestic product (GDP), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on renewable energy consumption in China from 1990 to 2020, utilizing the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) method. The findings indicate that the oil price, GDP and CO2 emissions positively and significantly affect renewable energy consumption over the examined time frame. Numerically, a 1% increase in oil prices, GDP, and CO2 emissions results in a 0.16%, 0.39%, and 1.70% increase in renewable energy consumption, respectively. The positive effect of oil prices on renewable energy consumption can be seen as the cost advantage of renewable energy, which may grow with rising oil prices, leading to a rise in its adoption. The study underscores the significance of promoting renewable energy usage, emphasizing the need for policies that aid energy security and environmental sustainability.
{"title":"Oil prices and the renewable energy transition: Empirical evidence from China","authors":"Shahriyar Mukhtarov","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the effect of oil price, gross domestic product (GDP), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on renewable energy consumption in China from 1990 to 2020, utilizing the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) method. The findings indicate that the oil price, GDP and CO2 emissions positively and significantly affect renewable energy consumption over the examined time frame. Numerically, a 1% increase in oil prices, GDP, and CO2 emissions results in a 0.16%, 0.39%, and 1.70% increase in renewable energy consumption, respectively. The positive effect of oil prices on renewable energy consumption can be seen as the cost advantage of renewable energy, which may grow with rising oil prices, leading to a rise in its adoption. The study underscores the significance of promoting renewable energy usage, emphasizing the need for policies that aid energy security and environmental sustainability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101840"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142359511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101825
Wanbo Lu , Qibo Liu , Jie Wang
This paper first constructs the electricity policy uncertainty (EPU) in China with textual methods and analyses the effect of the EPU and carbon emission prices (CEPs) on the total electricity demand. This paper also forecasts the demand for electricity in China with three mixed-frequency data models. The results show that the EPU index efficiently captures the uncertainty of China's electricity policy. The effects of EPU and CEPs on electricity demand are significant, and incorporating them into the forecasting model will improve the accuracy and timeliness. Moreover, compared with the ARMA model and LSTM neural networks, mixed-frequency data models perform better in electricity demand forecasting.
本文首先利用文本方法构建了中国电力政策不确定性(EPU),并分析了电力政策不确定性和碳排放价格(CEP)对电力总需求的影响。本文还利用三个混合频率数据模型对中国的电力需求进行了预测。结果表明,EPU 指数有效地捕捉了中国电力政策的不确定性。EPU 和 CEP 对电力需求的影响显著,将其纳入预测模型将提高预测的准确性和及时性。此外,与 ARMA 模型和 LSTM 神经网络相比,混合频率数据模型在电力需求预测中表现更好。
{"title":"Effect of electricity policy uncertainty and carbon emission prices on electricity demand in China based on mixed-frequency data models","authors":"Wanbo Lu , Qibo Liu , Jie Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101825","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jup.2024.101825","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper first constructs the electricity policy uncertainty (EPU) in China with textual methods and analyses the effect of the EPU and carbon emission prices (CEPs) on the total electricity demand. This paper also forecasts the demand for electricity in China with three mixed-frequency data models. The results show that the EPU index efficiently captures the uncertainty of China's electricity policy. The effects of EPU and CEPs on electricity demand are significant, and incorporating them into the forecasting model will improve the accuracy and timeliness. Moreover, compared with the ARMA model and LSTM neural networks, mixed-frequency data models perform better in electricity demand forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":23554,"journal":{"name":"Utilities Policy","volume":"91 ","pages":"Article 101825"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}