Utilities Policy最新文献

英文中文

Capital structure decisions in the energy transition: Insights from Spain 能源转型中的资本结构决策：西班牙的启示

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101851

Cristobal Bistuer-Talavera , Joan Llobet-Dalmases , Dolors Plana-Erta , Jorge M. Uribe

The renewable energy transition depends heavily on capital structure decisions of energy firms. Most previous research has focused on the decisions of oil companies. This study investigates the financing of new investment in the Spanish renewable energy sector, including decisions about: i) equity versus debt, ii) short versus long-term debt, and iii) equity issuances versus retained earnings for new investment. Our analysis is based on data from over 22,000 energy firms from 2008 to 2021 and shows that these firms prefer debt over equity (more than 90% of changes in assets are financed through increasing debt) and have extended the term of the debt over the period studied (reaching a maximum of almost 73% long-term debt in 2021). The deployment of retained earnings is less usual than raising new equity capital. Our analysis points to a generalized use of project finance to support new investments. Policymakers should focus on increasing financing through equity and thus diversifying the financial risk of the energy transition. In addition, a supportive fiscal policy and a stable regulatory environment are desirable for achieving this goal.

可再生能源转型在很大程度上取决于能源公司的资本结构决策。以往的研究大多侧重于石油公司的决策。本研究调查了西班牙可再生能源行业新投资的融资情况，包括以下决策：i) 股权与债务；ii) 短期债务与长期债务；iii) 新投资的股权发行与留存收益。我们的分析基于 2008 年至 2021 年期间 22,000 多家能源企业的数据，结果表明，这些企业更倾向于债务而非股权（90% 以上的资产变化是通过增加债务融资的），并在研究期间延长了债务期限（2021 年达到最大值，近 73% 为长期债务）。与筹集新的权益资本相比，留存收益的调配并不常见。我们的分析表明，企业普遍使用项目融资来支持新投资。政策制定者应重视增加股权融资，从而分散能源转型的金融风险。此外，支持性的财政政策和稳定的监管环境也是实现这一目标的理想条件。

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引用次数: 0

The nexus of electricity infrastructure investment, household income, and carbon emissions in rural China 中国农村地区电力基础设施投资、家庭收入与碳排放之间的关系

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101849

Qi Tian , Tao Zhao , Rong Yuan

This study analyzes the nexus of electricity infrastructure investment (EII), rural household income, and household carbon emissions (HCEs) using panel data from China's 30 provinces from 2003 to 2020. Firstly, we consider the impact of EII on the direct HCEs (DHCEs) caused by the direct consumption of fossil fuels and investigate the mediating effect of income level and income variance. The empirical results show that the growth of EII reduces rural DHCEs through the transmission channels of income level, whereas income variance limits the negative relationship between EII and DHCEs. Then, we estimate the emissions embodied in household expenditure on goods and services of different income groups, that is, indirect HCEs (IHCEs), and develop a counterfactual scenario to assess the effects of EII on the total HCEs (the sum of DHCEs and IHCEs) in 2017. The scenario analysis indicates that without increased EII in 2017, the total national HCEs would increase by 0.9%, mainly due to the increased per capita HCEs of low-income groups (+11.6%). Besides, the total HCEs in ten provinces are influenced significantly by the change of income distribution driven by the change of EII, with Guangdong experiencing the largest decrease of HCEs (2.6 Mt) due to the movements of residents from the lower-income group to the lowest-income group. Thus, there is a trade-off between HCE reduction and poverty alleviation when developing EII in rural China.

本研究利用 2003-2020 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，分析了电力基础设施投资（EII）、农村家庭收入和家庭碳排放（HCEs）之间的关系。首先，我们考虑了电力基础设施投资对化石燃料直接消费所导致的直接家庭碳排放（DHCEs）的影响，并研究了收入水平和收入差异的中介效应。实证结果表明，经济信息基础设施的增长通过收入水平的传导渠道减少了农村的直接高危排放，而收入差异则限制了经济信息基础设施与直接高危排放之间的负相关关系。然后，我们估算了不同收入群体在商品和服务方面的家庭支出所体现的排放量，即间接家庭经济支出（IHCEs），并制定了一个反事实情景，以评估 2017 年经济信息基础设施对总家庭经济支出（家庭商品和服务支出与间接家庭经济支出之和）的影响。情景分析表明，如果 2017 年的经济保险指数没有增加，全国的家庭经济支出总额将增加 0.9%，这主要是由于低收入群体的人均家庭经济支出增加（+11.6%）。此外，十个省份的 HCEs 总量受到 EII 变化带动的收入分配变化的显著影响，其中广东的 HCEs 减少最多（260 万），原因是居民从低收入群体向最低收入群体流动。因此，在中国农村发展经济信息基础设施时，需要在减少 HCE 和扶贫之间做出权衡。

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引用次数: 0

Data fraud in the carbon emissions trading market: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis from China 碳排放交易市场中的数据欺诈：来自中国的三方演化博弈分析

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101848

Yanbin Li , Chang Liu , Jiani Wang , Yuan Wang , Xiuqi Yang , Yun Li

Data fraud affects the carbon emissions trading market order. This paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model among environmental authorities, power generation enterprises, and third-party verification agencies; systematically analyzes the evolutionary laws and evolutionary stabilization strategies of the three parties; conducts simulation analysis and parameter impact analysis of four carbon emission accounting scenarios, explores the causes of data fraud and puts forward policy implications. The research can provide the theoretical basis for the Chinese government to improve the carbon emission regulation system and can also be used as a reference for other countries' carbon emission data quality control.

数据造假影响碳排放权交易市场秩序。本文构建了环保部门、发电企业和第三方核查机构三方的演化博弈模型，系统分析了三方的演化规律和演化稳定策略，对四种碳排放核算情景进行了仿真分析和参数影响分析，探讨了数据造假的成因，并提出了政策启示。该研究可为中国政府完善碳排放监管体系提供理论依据，也可为其他国家的碳排放数据质量控制提供参考。

引用次数: 0

Performance benchmarking of European postal incumbents with TOPSIS and BMW-TOPSIS 利用 TOPSIS 和 BMW-TOPSIS 对欧洲邮政现有企业的绩效进行基准测试

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101845

Bojan Jovanović, Dragana Šarac, Nataša Čačić

Given the uncertain position and specific role of postal incumbents in Europe, creating a framework for mutual comparison is essential. In this regard, this study aims to develop a methodology that will compare their relevant performance. On the other hand, management and host countries can be promptly alerted if something hinders postal incumbents from providing optimal performance. Two methods have been applied: the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and its variation, Best-Middle-Worst (BMW)-TOPSIS, on a sample of 16 incumbents from the EU and candidate countries. The results indicate that a finer adjustment is achieved in terms of ranking by the BMW-TOPSIS method. An open question regarding the selection of postal incumbents is whether it is necessary to strictly adhere to the rule that the number of their attributes is less than or equal to half of the attributes of the Middle point. The example of Latvia shows that if an alternative contains values from which the Best point is composed, an exception can be made in the selection. The development of the Middle point provides an opportunity for a more in-depth analysis, especially in cases where the values of the criteria differ significantly. Unlike classical TOPSIS, it offers a clearer visualization that supports the understanding of postal incumbents and their performance.

鉴于欧洲邮政运营商的不确定地位和特殊作用，建立一个相互比较的框架至关重要。为此，本研究旨在制定一种方法，对它们的相关绩效进行比较。另一方面，如果有什么因素阻碍了邮政企业提供最佳服务，管理部门和东道国可以及时得到提醒。在对欧盟和候选国的 16 个邮政企业进行抽样调查时，采用了两种方法："与理想方案相似度排序技术"（TOPSIS）及其变体 "最佳-中间-最差（BMW）-TOPSIS"。结果表明，BMW-TOPSIS 方法在排序方面实现了更精细的调整。关于邮政现任者的选择，一个尚未解决的问题是，是否有必要严格遵守其属性数小于或等于中间点属性数一半的规则。拉脱维亚的例子表明，如果一个备选方案包含了由最佳点组成的值，那么在选择时就可以破例。中间点的发展为更深入的分析提供了机会，特别是在标准值相差很大的情况下。与传统的 TOPSIS 方法不同的是，它提供了一种更清晰的可视化方法，有助于了解邮政现任者及其表现。

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引用次数: 0

Electricity security in Uganda: Measurement and policy priorities 乌干达的电力安全：衡量和政策优先事项

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101844

Benard M. Wabukala , Olvar Bergland , Nicholas Mukisa , Muyiwa S. Adaramola , Susan Watundu , Laura A. Orobia , Nichodemus Rudaheranwa

Reliable, accessible, affordable, and sustainable electricity systems are fundamental to modern and progressive economies. For developing societies, particularly those with fragile power generation capabilities and electricity networks, the electricity security metrics are incomparable and remain untested. A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method that follows an entropy-based weighting system is employed to quantitatively evaluate and construct an Electricity Security Index (ESI) for Uganda. Results reveal that Uganda is “moderately” electricity secure. Out of the maximum possible score of 100, a year-on-year analysis indicates that the ESI score was highest in 2007 (56) and the lowest was registered in 2015 (39). Based on the VIKOR technique, it is observed that electricity reliability contributes the most to the ESI, while electricity access contributes the least. Although expansion of electricity generation capacity is necessary, energy policies should, in equal measure, prioritize adequate investments in robust and modern transmission and distribution infrastructure. A riveting policy implication is that governance quality enhances a country's electricity system by reinforcing the other dimensions of electricity security.

可靠、方便、可负担和可持续的电力系统是现代和进步经济体的基础。对于发展中社会，尤其是那些发电能力和电网脆弱的社会，电力安全指标是无法比拟的，也是未经检验的。采用基于熵权系统的多标准决策（MCDM）方法，对乌干达的电力安全指数（ESI）进行了定量评估和构建。结果显示，乌干达的电力安全程度为 "中等"。在最高可能得分 100 分中，逐年分析表明，2007 年的 ESI 得分最高（56 分），2015 年最低（39 分）。根据 VIKOR 技术，可以看出电力可靠性对 ESI 的贡献最大，而电力供应对 ESI 的贡献最小。虽然扩大发电能力是必要的，但能源政策也应同样优先考虑对强大的现代化输配电基础设施进行适当投资。一个引人入胜的政策含义是，治理质量可以通过加强电力安全的其他方面来增强一个国家的电力系统。

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引用次数: 0

The digital economy and energy poverty in Central and Eastern Europe 中欧和东欧的数字经济与能源贫困

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101841

Mihaela Simionescu , Javier Cifuentes-Faura

Energy policies to address fuel poverty must consider digital transformation, as the entire policy framework needs to be managed as an interconnected system. This analysis explores how internet development and renewable energy consumption affected energy poverty in Central and Eastern European countries. By applying mean group estimators and quantile regression, the study shows that better internet access and foreign direct investment reduce energy poverty, as evidenced by fewer utility bill arrears and more households maintaining warmth. These results highlight the need for a unified policy integrating digital and renewable energy strategies to address energy poverty effectively.

解决燃料贫困问题的能源政策必须考虑数字化转型，因为整个政策框架需要作为一个相互关联的系统来管理。本分析探讨了互联网发展和可再生能源消费如何影响中东欧国家的能源贫困问题。通过应用均值组估计和量阶回归，研究表明，更好的互联网接入和外国直接投资减少了能源贫困，这体现在拖欠水电费的情况减少了，更多的家庭保持了温暖。这些结果突出表明，有必要制定一项整合数字和可再生能源战略的统一政策，以有效解决能源贫困问题。

引用次数: 0

Preserving competition and economic welfare in Israel's PV market 维护以色列光伏市场的竞争和经济福利

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101842

Miriam Tourgeman, Chen Cohen, Ofir Rubin

Despite global efforts, many countries struggle to meet renewable energy targets. In 2022, Israel's renewable energy accounted for only 10% of its electricity generation despite its abundant solar resources. This study analyzes the outcomes of three tenders for photovoltaic (PV) facilities aimed at advancing national renewable energy goals. The results reveal lower production costs but increased market concentration, with a 50% reduction in the number of winning firms, consolidating around major players. While efficiency has improved, the exit of smaller, less competitive firms raises concerns about long-term dominance. Cournot oligopoly simulations predict rising concentration and market power.

尽管全球都在努力，但许多国家仍难以实现可再生能源目标。2022 年，尽管以色列拥有丰富的太阳能资源，但其可再生能源发电量仅占其发电量的 10%。本研究分析了旨在推进国家可再生能源目标的三次光伏设施招标的结果。结果显示，生产成本降低了，但市场集中度却提高了，中标企业数量减少了 50%，主要企业被整合在一起。虽然效率有所提高，但规模较小、竞争力较弱的企业的退出引发了对长期主导地位的担忧。库诺寡头垄断模拟预测了集中度和市场力量的上升。

引用次数: 0

Organizational models for the decommissioning of nuclear power plants: Lessons from the United Kingdom and the United States 核电站退役的组织模式：英国和美国的经验教训

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101843

Alexander Wimmers , Christian von Hirschhausen

With nuclear reactor fleets continuously aging, the decommissioning of closed reactors is gaining increasing attention. In nuclear decommissioning, technical, organizational, and regulatory challenges lead to long project durations and cost escalations. This paper attempts to examine the organizational efficiencies in nuclear decommissioning by applying the framework of the "system good" analysis and assessments based on new institutional economics. It compares the former parent-body-organization model practiced in the United Kingdom with current approaches observed in the United States, highlighting potential gains and policy recommendations for private sector involvement in nuclear decommissioning. Inefficiencies experienced in the United Kingdom include regulatory issues, private actors' opportunism, and information asymmetries. Comparatively, the models observed in the United States show fewer such issues, but regulators should address potential profit-driven shortcuts and funding adequacy.

随着核反应堆群不断老化，封闭反应堆的退役问题日益受到关注。在核退役过程中，技术、组织和监管方面的挑战导致项目工期延长、成本上升。本文试图运用基于新制度经济学的 "系统良好 "分析和评估框架，研究核退役的组织效率。本文比较了英国以前采用的母体组织模式和美国目前采用的方法，强调了私营部门参与核退役的潜在收益和政策建议。英国所经历的低效率包括监管问题、私人行为者的机会主义和信息不对称。相比之下，在美国观察到的模式显示此类问题较少，但监管机构应解决潜在的利润驱动捷径和资金充足问题。

引用次数: 0

Oil prices and the renewable energy transition: Empirical evidence from China 石油价格与可再生能源转型：中国的经验证据

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101840

Shahriyar Mukhtarov

This paper explores the effect of oil price, gross domestic product (GDP), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on renewable energy consumption in China from 1990 to 2020, utilizing the canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) method. The findings indicate that the oil price, GDP and CO2 emissions positively and significantly affect renewable energy consumption over the examined time frame. Numerically, a 1% increase in oil prices, GDP, and CO2 emissions results in a 0.16%, 0.39%, and 1.70% increase in renewable energy consumption, respectively. The positive effect of oil prices on renewable energy consumption can be seen as the cost advantage of renewable energy, which may grow with rising oil prices, leading to a rise in its adoption. The study underscores the significance of promoting renewable energy usage, emphasizing the need for policies that aid energy security and environmental sustainability.

本文利用典型协整回归（CCR）方法，探讨了 1990-2020 年间油价、国内生产总值（GDP）和二氧化碳排放量对中国可再生能源消费的影响。研究结果表明，在研究时段内，油价、GDP 和二氧化碳排放量对可再生能源消费有显著的正向影响。从数值上看，油价、国内生产总值和二氧化碳排放量每增加 1%，可再生能源消费量就会分别增加 0.16%、0.39% 和 1.70%。油价对可再生能源消费的积极影响可以看作是可再生能源的成本优势，这种优势可能会随着油价的上涨而增加，从而导致可再生能源的采用率上升。这项研究强调了推广使用可再生能源的重要意义，并强调需要制定有助于能源安全和环境可持续性的政策。

引用次数: 0

Effect of electricity policy uncertainty and carbon emission prices on electricity demand in China based on mixed-frequency data models 基于混合频率数据模型的电力政策不确定性和碳排放价格对中国电力需求的影响

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101825

Wanbo Lu , Qibo Liu , Jie Wang

This paper first constructs the electricity policy uncertainty (EPU) in China with textual methods and analyses the effect of the EPU and carbon emission prices (CEPs) on the total electricity demand. This paper also forecasts the demand for electricity in China with three mixed-frequency data models. The results show that the EPU index efficiently captures the uncertainty of China's electricity policy. The effects of EPU and CEPs on electricity demand are significant, and incorporating them into the forecasting model will improve the accuracy and timeliness. Moreover, compared with the ARMA model and LSTM neural networks, mixed-frequency data models perform better in electricity demand forecasting.

本文首先利用文本方法构建了中国电力政策不确定性（EPU），并分析了电力政策不确定性和碳排放价格（CEP）对电力总需求的影响。本文还利用三个混合频率数据模型对中国的电力需求进行了预测。结果表明，EPU 指数有效地捕捉了中国电力政策的不确定性。EPU 和 CEP 对电力需求的影响显著，将其纳入预测模型将提高预测的准确性和及时性。此外，与 ARMA 模型和 LSTM 神经网络相比，混合频率数据模型在电力需求预测中表现更好。

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