The growing integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Thailand is primarily driven by declining system costs and incentive schemes. This trend has concurrently led to the challenge of “invisible” PV installations. These installations fall into two categories: (1) exceeding the contracted specification, and (2) unnotified behind-the-meter connections that result in unintended meter reversal (‘meter-run-backward’). This study examines the financial evaluation of invisible PV installations by comparing their profitability with that of business-as-usual (BAU) projects. The analysis focuses on both centralized and residential PV systems under various incentive schemes, including Net Billing and Net Energy Metering.
Our finding reveals a significant economic distortion that the Net Present Value (NPV) of a centralized PV project incorporating hidden (invisible) capacity can increase by as much as 20.54 % relative to a baseline scenario, representing an average 6.53 % improvement over BAU compliance. Similarly, residential systems integrating invisible PV capacity achieve an average NPV enhancement of 26 % compared to BAU projects. To mitigate this issue, this research proposes a minimization strategy featuring an on-top penalty fee. Sensitivity analysis shows that the proposed fee structure, when strategically set within the 0.07–0.08 USD/kWh range, achieves the reduction in unauthorized project returns. This range is set explicitly below the average retail tariff rate but above the system's Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), thereby promoting fairness while effectively disincentivizing invisible PV adoption and addressing a critical gap in energy policy.
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