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The Convergence of Antibiotic Contamination, Resistance, and Climate Dynamics in Freshwater Ecosystems 淡水生态系统中抗生素污染、抗药性和气候动态的融合
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/w16182606
Marcelo Pedrosa Gomes
The convergence of antibiotic contamination, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and climate dynamics poses a critical environmental and public health challenge. Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the persistent presence of antibiotics, which, coupled with rising global temperatures, accelerate the development and spread of AMR. This review examines the sources, pathways, and mechanisms through which antibiotics enter freshwater systems and how climate change exacerbates these processes. This review discusses this convergence’s ecological and human health impacts, highlighting the implications for biodiversity and public health. It also explored the current monitoring and mitigation strategies, including advanced oxidation processes, natural-based solutions, and policy interventions. Finally, this review identifies critical research gaps and proposes future directions for managing the intertwined threats of antibiotic contamination, resistance, and climate change. It emphasizes the need for integrated, multidisciplinary approaches to protect freshwater resources in an increasingly volatile global environment.
抗生素污染、抗菌药耐药性(AMR)和气候动态的交汇构成了严峻的环境和公共卫生挑战。淡水生态系统正日益受到抗生素持续存在的威胁,而抗生素的存在加上全球气温的升高,加速了 AMR 的发展和传播。本综述探讨了抗生素进入淡水系统的来源、途径和机制,以及气候变化如何加剧这些过程。本综述讨论了这种融合对生态和人类健康的影响,强调了对生物多样性和公共卫生的影响。它还探讨了当前的监测和缓解策略,包括高级氧化过程、基于自然的解决方案和政策干预。最后,本综述指出了关键的研究缺口,并提出了管理抗生素污染、抗药性和气候变化等相互交织的威胁的未来方向。它强调了在日益动荡的全球环境中保护淡水资源需要综合、多学科的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Sensitivity Analysis and Parameterization of Gridded and Lumped Models Representation for Heterogeneous Land Use and Land Cover 针对异质土地利用和土地覆盖的网格模型和块状模型表示的灵敏度分析和参数化
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/w16182608
Prakash Pudasaini, Thaine H. Assumpção, Andreja Jonoski, Ioana Popescu
Hydrological processes can be highly influenced by changes in land use land cover (LULC), which can make hydrological modelling also very sensitive to land cover characterization. Therefore, obtaining up-to-date LULC data is a crucial process in hydrological modelling, and as such, different sources of LULC data raises questions on their quality and applicability. This is especially true with new data sources, such as citizen science-based land cover maps. Therefore, this research aims to explore the influence of LULC data sources on hydrological models via their parameterization and by performing sensitivity analyses. Kiffissos catchment, in Greece, a poorly gauged and highly urbanized basin including the city of Athens, is the case study area. In total, 12 continuous hydrological models were developed by mainly varying their structure and parametrization (lumped and gridded) and using three LULC datasets: coordination of information on the environment (CORINE), Urban Atlas and Scent (citizen-based). It was found that excess precipitation is negligibly contributed to by soil saturation and is dominated by the runoff over impervious areas. Therefore, imperviousness was the main parameter influencing both sensitivity to land cover and parameterization. Lastly, although the parametrization as lumped and gridded models affected the representation of hydrological processes in pervious areas, it was not relevant in terms of excess precipitation.
水文过程受土地利用、土地覆被 (LULC) 变化的影响很大,这使得水文建模对土地覆被特征非常敏感。因此,获取最新的 LULC 数据是水文建模的关键步骤,而不同来源的 LULC 数据在质量和适用性方面都存在问题。新的数据源(如基于公民科学的土地覆被图)尤其如此。因此,本研究旨在通过参数化和敏感性分析,探讨 LULC 数据源对水文模型的影响。希腊的 Kiffissos 流域是一个包括雅典市在内的测量条件较差、城市化程度较高的流域。共开发了 12 个连续水文模型,主要是通过改变其结构和参数化(整块和网格化),并使用三个 LULC 数据集:环境信息协调(CORINE)、城市地图集和气味(基于公民)。研究发现,土壤饱和对过量降水的影响微乎其微,主要是不透水区域的径流。因此,不透水是影响土地覆被敏感性和参数化的主要参数。最后,虽然参数化为块状模型和网格模型会影响对不透水区域水文过程的表述,但与超量降水无关。
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引用次数: 0
Hydraulic and Hydrogeochemical Characterization of Carbonate Aquifers in Arid Regions: A Case from the Western Desert, Egypt 干旱地区碳酸盐含水层的水力和水文地质化学特征:埃及西部沙漠案例
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/w16182610
Mahmoud M. Khalil, Mostafa Mahmoud, Dimitrios E. Alexakis, Dimitra E. Gamvroula, Emad Youssef, Esam El-Sayed, Mohamed H. Farag, Mohamed Ahmed, Peiyue Li, Ahmed Ali, Esam Ismail
Using geochemical and pumping test data from 80 groundwater wells, the chemical, hydrologic, and hydraulic properties of the fractured Eocene carbonate aquifer located west of the Al-Minya district, the Western Desert, Egypt, have been characterized and determined to guarantee sustainable management of groundwater resources under large-scale desert reclamation projects. The hydrochemical data show that groundwater from the fractured Eocene carbonate aquifer has a high concentration of Na+ and Cl− and varies in salinity from 2176 to 2912 mg/L (brackish water). Water–rock interaction and ion exchange processes are the most dominant processes controlling groundwater composition. The carbonate aquifer exists under confined to semi-confined conditions, and the depth to groundwater increases eastward. From the potentiometric head data, deep-seated faults are the suggested pathways for gas-rich water ascending from the deep Nubian aquifer system into the overlying shallow carbonate aquifer. This mechanism enhances the dissolution and karstification of carbonate rocks, especially in the vicinity of faulted sites, and is supported by the significant loss of mud circulation during well drilling operations. The average estimated hydraulic parameters, based on the analysis of step-drawdown, long-duration pumping and recovery tests, indicate that the Eocene carbonate aquifer has a wide range of transmissivity (T) that is between 336.39 and 389,309.28 m2/d (average: 18,405.21 m2/d), hydraulic conductivity (K) between 1.31 and 1420.84 m/d (average: 70.29 m/d), and specific capacity (Sc) between 44.4 and 17,376.24 m2/d (average: 45.24 m2/d). On the other hand, the performance characteristics of drilled wells show that well efficiency ranges between 0.47 and 97.08%, and well losses range between 2.92 and 99.53%. In addition to variations in carbonate aquifer thickness and clay/shale content, the existence of strong karstification features, i.e., fissures, fractures or caverns, and solution cavities, in the Eocene carbonate aquifer are responsible for variability in the K and T values. The observed high well losses might be related to turbulent flow within and adjacent to the wells drilled in conductive fracture zones. The current approach can be further used to enhance local aquifer models and improve strategies for identifying the most productive zones in similar aquifer systems.
利用来自 80 口地下水井的地球化学和抽水试验数据,对位于埃及西部沙漠 Al-Minya 区以西的断裂始新世碳酸盐含水层的化学、水文和水力特性进行了描述和确定,以确保在大规模沙漠开垦项目中对地下水资源进行可持续管理。水化学数据显示,来自断裂的始新世碳酸盐含水层的地下水具有较高的 Na+ 和 Cl- 浓度,盐度从 2176 毫克/升到 2912 毫克/升(咸水)不等。水与岩石的相互作用和离子交换过程是控制地下水成分的最主要过程。碳酸盐含水层存在于封闭到半封闭条件下,地下水深度向东增加。根据水位数据,深层断层是富含气体的水从深层努比亚含水层系统上升到上覆浅层碳酸盐含水层的途径。这一机制促进了碳酸盐岩的溶解和岩溶化,尤其是在断层附近,钻井过程中泥浆循环的大量流失也证明了这一点。根据阶梯式降水、长时间抽水和回采试验分析得出的平均估计水力参数表明,始新世碳酸盐岩含水层的渗透率(T)范围很宽,介于 336.39 至 389,309.0 之间。39 至 389,309.28 平方米/日(平均值:18,405.21 平方米/日)之间,导水性(K)在 1.31 至 1420.84 平方米/日(平均值:70.29 平方米/日)之间,比容(Sc)在 44.4 至 17,376.24 平方米/日(平均值:45.24 平方米/日)之间。另一方面,钻井的性能特征显示,油井效率在 0.47 至 97.08% 之间,油井损失在 2.92 至 99.53% 之间。除了碳酸盐含水层厚度和粘土/页岩含量的变化外,始新世碳酸盐含水层中存在的强烈岩溶化特征,即裂隙、裂缝或溶洞,也是造成 K 值和 T 值变化的原因。观测到的高井损可能与在导电断裂带钻井内部和附近的湍流有关。目前的方法可进一步用于加强当地含水层模型,并改进战略,以确定类似含水层系统中最具生产力的区域。
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引用次数: 0
Transforming Hydrology Python Packages into Web Application Programming Interfaces: A Comprehensive Workflow Using Modern Web Technologies 将水文 Python 软件包转化为网络应用编程接口:使用现代网络技术的综合工作流程
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/w16182609
Sarva T. Pulla, Hakan Yasarer, Lance D. Yarbrough
The accessibility and deployment of complex hydrological models remain significant challenges in water resource management and research. This study presents a comprehensive workflow for converting Python-based hydrological models into web APIs, addressing the need for more accessible and interoperable modeling tools. The workflow leverages modern web technologies and containerization to streamline the deployment process. The workflow was applied to three distinct models: a GRACE downscaling model, a synthetic time series generator, and a MODFLOW groundwater model. The implementation process for each model was completed in approximately 15 min with a reliable internet connection, demonstrating the efficiency of the approach. The resulting APIs provide standardized interfaces for model execution, progress tracking, and result retrieval, facilitating integration with various applications. This workflow significantly reduces barriers to model deployment and usage, potentially broadening the user base for sophisticated hydrological tools. The approach aligns hydrological modeling with contemporary software development practices, opening new avenues for collaboration and innovation. While challenges such as performance scaling and security considerations remain, this work provides a blueprint for making complex hydrological models more accessible and operational, paving the way for enhanced research and practical applications in hydrology.
复杂水文模型的可访问性和部署仍然是水资源管理和研究中的重大挑战。本研究介绍了一种将基于 Python 的水文模型转换为网络应用程序接口的综合工作流程,以满足对更易于访问和可互操作的建模工具的需求。该工作流程利用现代网络技术和容器化来简化部署过程。该工作流适用于三种不同的模型:GRACE 降尺度模型、合成时间序列生成器和 MODFLOW 地下水模型。在可靠的互联网连接条件下,每个模型的实施过程大约在 15 分钟内完成,这证明了该方法的高效性。由此产生的应用程序接口为模型执行、进度跟踪和结果检索提供了标准化接口,便于与各种应用程序集成。这种工作流程大大减少了模型部署和使用的障碍,有可能扩大复杂水文工具的用户群。这种方法将水文建模与当代软件开发实践相结合,为合作与创新开辟了新途径。虽然性能扩展和安全考虑等挑战依然存在,但这项工作为使复杂的水文模型更易于访问和操作提供了蓝图,为加强水文研究和实际应用铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive Resilience Assessment Framework for Water Distribution Networks 配水管网抗灾能力综合评估框架
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/w16182611
Joana Carneiro, Dália Loureiro, Marta Cabral, Dídia Covas
A novel comprehensive resilience assessment framework for drinking water systems is proposed integrating different resilience perspectives (i.e., robustness, autonomy, flexibility, reliability, preparedness and recovery), oriented by objectives, criteria and metrics, applicable at the tactical level. The resilience assessment framework is applied to a Portuguese real water distribution network, enabling the evaluation of the system’s resilience. The infrastructure dimension is the main contributor to the low resilience results, particularly in terms of infrastructural robustness, as the infrastructure has exceeded the average service life and has low rehabilitation rates. In terms of autonomy, the system highly depends on external water and energy sources. Regarding the service dimension, most of the drinking water available is used for non-potable uses (e.g., irrigation), without alternative sources. The detailed diagnosis identified network area R6 as the priority area. Assets rehabilitation, increasing storage capacity, finding alternative water and energy sources, and minimizing non-potable uses are relevant improvement measures that promote the reinforcement of the system’s resilience. The resilience assessment framework is a very useful tool for the daily and tactical management of drinking water systems.
针对饮用水系统提出了一个新颖的综合复原力评估框架,该框架整合了不同的复原力视角(即稳健性、自主性、灵活性、可靠性、准备性和恢复性),以目标、标准和指标为导向,适用于战术层面。该复原力评估框架适用于葡萄牙的一个实际供水网络,可对系统的复原力进行评估。基础设施方面是导致复原力低下的主要原因,特别是在基础设施的稳健性方面,因为基础设施已经超过了平均使用寿命,而且修复率很低。在自主性方面,系统高度依赖外部水源和能源。在服务方面,大部分可用饮用水被用于非饮用水用途(如灌溉),没有替代水源。详细分析确定 R6 管网区为优先领域。修复资产、增加储水能力、寻找替代水源和能源、尽量减少非饮用水的使用,这些都是促进加强系统恢复能力的相关改进措施。复原力评估框架是对饮用水系统进行日常和战术管理的一个非常有用的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis and Identification of Eccentricity of Axial-Flow Impeller by Variational Mode Decomposition 用变量模式分解分析和识别轴流叶轮的偏心率
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/w16182605
Houyu Zhang, Yingbo Guan, Zilong Hu, Weilong Guang, Di Zhu, Ran Tao, Ruofu Xiao
The axial-flow impellers are widely applied to industry due to their excellent hydraulic performance and simple structure, but they may be affected by their eccentricity during operation. This study compared and studied the effects of the axial-flow eccentricity of an impeller on hydraulic performance, impeller radial force, and downstream pressure pulsation of the unit. The research results indicate that impeller eccentricity has a small effect on hydraulic performance. Compared with the design conditions, the efficiency, power, and head changes caused by impeller eccentricity are all less than 1%, but the impeller eccentricity leads to a sharp increase in the radial force of the impeller. Under the design conditions, the average value of the radial force of the impeller is 31.38 N; under eccentric conditions, the average value of the radial force of the impeller increased by nine times, reaching 316.30 N. By analyzing the pressure pulsation signals decomposed by the VMD method, it is shown that the influence of eccentricity on pressure pulsation is mainly reflected in the increase in impeller frequency on pressure pulsation. Under design conditions, the corresponding amplitude of the impeller frequency is 2.6; under eccentric conditions, the amplitude corresponding to the impeller frequency increased by 100 times, reaching 274.4. This study elucidates the specific effects of axial impeller eccentricity, providing theoretical guidance for the safe and stable operation of axial-flow units, and has important engineering significance.
轴流式叶轮因其优异的水力性能和简单的结构被广泛应用于工业领域,但其在运行过程中可能会受到偏心的影响。本研究比较并研究了叶轮的轴向偏心对水力性能、叶轮径向力和机组下游压力脉动的影响。研究结果表明,叶轮偏心率对水力性能的影响较小。与设计工况相比,叶轮偏心引起的效率、功率和水头变化均小于 1%,但叶轮偏心导致叶轮径向力急剧增加。设计工况下,叶轮径向力的平均值为 31.38 N,而在偏心工况下,叶轮径向力的平均值增加了 9 倍,达到 316.30 N。通过分析用 VMD 方法分解的压力脉动信号,可以看出偏心对压力脉动的影响主要体现在叶轮频率的增加对压力脉动的影响。在设计工况下,叶轮频率对应的幅值为 2.6;在偏心工况下,叶轮频率对应的幅值增加了 100 倍,达到 274.4。该研究阐明了轴流叶轮偏心的具体影响,为轴流机组的安全稳定运行提供了理论指导,具有重要的工程意义。
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引用次数: 0
Optimization of Advance Drainage Borehole Layout Based on Visual Modflow 基于可视化模型流程的超前排水钻孔布局优化
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/w16182613
Yue Li, Yunpeng Zhang, Yajie Ma, Fangang Meng
It is an effective measure to prevent water damage in coal mines in order to construct drainage boreholes in water-filled aquifers of a working face roof. The hydrogeological parameters of the roof water-filled aquifer and the parameters of the drainage borehole are closely related to the underground drainage effect. Taking the 3085 working face of the Donghuantuo Mine in Kailuan as an example, the influence degree of hydrogeological parameters and hydrophobic borehole parameters on the amount of drainage water was analyzed using the generalized gray correlation degree. Based on Visual Modflow, the 3D groundwater visualization model was established and the dredging borehole was generalized into the pumping borehole. By changing the main influencing factors, the design optimization of the advanced hydrophobic borehole was discussed. The results showed that the aquifer thickness had a great influence on the amount of water discharged, and the influence degree of the sharp angle between the formation and the direction of drilling, the depth of the final hole, the azimuth angle of drilling, the dip angle of drilling, the elevation of the final hole and the elevation of the borehole on the amount of water discharged decreased successively. Based on the simulation calculation, it could be observed that the hydrophobic borehole should be placed in a position with a larger accumulated thickness of the aquifer to have a better effect of hydrophobic depressurization.
在工作面顶板充水含水层中打排水钻孔,是防止煤矿水害的有效措施。顶板充水含水层的水文地质参数和排水钻孔的参数与井下排水效果密切相关。以开滦东黄土矿3085工作面为例,利用广义灰色关联度分析了水文地质参数和疏水钻孔参数对排水量的影响程度。基于 Visual Modflow,建立了三维地下水可视化模型,并将掘进钻孔概化为抽水钻孔。通过改变主要影响因素,讨论了先进疏水钻孔的优化设计。结果表明,含水层厚度对出水量影响较大,地层与钻孔方向的锐角、终孔深度、钻孔方位角、钻孔倾角、终孔高程和钻孔高程对出水量的影响程度依次减小。根据模拟计算可知,疏水钻孔应布置在含水层累积厚度较大的位置,以获得更好的疏水降压效果。
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引用次数: 0
The Temperature-Influenced Scaling Law of Hydraulic Conductivity of Sand under the Centrifugal Environment 离心环境下砂的导水性受温度影响的缩放规律
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/w16182596
Jianjian He, Xihao Jiang, Yubing Wang
Accurate characterization of soil hydraulic conductivity influenced by temperature under a centrifugal environment is important for hydraulic and geotechnical engineering. Therefore, a temperature-influenced scaling law for hydraulic conductivity of soil in centrifuge modeling was deduced, and a temperature-controlled falling-head permeameter apparatus specifically designed for centrifuge modeling was also developed. Subsequently, a series of temperature-controlled falling-head tests were conducted under varying centrifugal accelerations to achieve the following objectives: (1) examine the performance of the apparatus, (2) investigate the influence of temperature and centrifugal acceleration on the hydraulic conductivity of sand and its scaling factor, and (3) validate the proposed scaling law for hydraulic conductivity. The main conclusions of the study are as follows. Firstly, the apparatus demonstrated good sealing and effectively controlled the temperature of both the soil specimen and the fluid. Secondly, the hydraulic conductivity of sand was not constant but varied over time, likely due to the presence of radial seepage in addition to vertical seepage as the test progressed. Thirdly, temperature significantly influenced the hydraulic conductivity of sand and its scaling factor under the same centrifugal acceleration. Therefore, it is essential to closely monitor the temperature of models during centrifugal tests. Finally, the measured and calculated values of the scaling factor index for the hydraulic conductivity of sand showed good agreement, verifying the proposed scaling law.
在离心环境下,准确描述受温度影响的土壤导水性对于水利和岩土工程非常重要。因此,我们推导出了离心机建模中受温度影响的土壤导水性缩放定律,并开发了专为离心机建模设计的温控落头式渗透仪。随后,在不同离心加速度条件下进行了一系列温控落头试验,以实现以下目标:(1)检验仪器的性能;(2)研究温度和离心加速度对砂土导水率及其缩放因子的影响;(3)验证所提出的导水率缩放定律。研究的主要结论如下。首先,仪器具有良好的密封性,能有效控制土壤试样和流体的温度。其次,砂的水力传导性并非恒定不变,而是随时间而变化,这可能是由于随着试验的进行,除了垂直渗流外,还存在径向渗流。第三,在相同的离心加速度下,温度对沙子的水力传导率及其缩放因子有很大影响。因此,在离心试验过程中必须密切监测模型的温度。最后,砂的水力传导性缩放因子指数的测量值和计算值显示出良好的一致性,验证了所提出的缩放定律。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Trends of Standardized Drought Indices in Sicily Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data (1950–2023) 利用ERA5-陆地再分析数据分析西西里岛标准化干旱指数的时空趋势(1950-2023 年)
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/w16182593
Tagele Mossie Aschale, Antonino Cancelliere, Nunziarita Palazzolo, Gaetano Buonacera, David J. Peres
In this study, a spatiotemporal analysis of drought occurrence and trends across Sicily using ERA50-Land continuous gridded data is carried out. We first use the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions at various time scales from 1950 to 2023. Then, the Modified Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect trends and Sen’s slope estimator was used to quantify their magnitude. An analysis of the historical series confirms that 2002 was the most severe drought year, impacting all time scales from short-term to long-term. The spatial analysis revealed that the western regions of Sicily experienced the highest severity and frequency of drought events. In contrast, the northeastern regions were less severely affected compared with the other parts of the island. The analysis detects significant increasing trends in SPI values in the eastern coastal areas of the island, which are related to a possible historical increase in precipitation. On the other hand, the analysis of the SPEI indicates significant decreasing trends in the western part of the island, which are mainly related to increased evapotranspiration rates. These results are partially consistent with previous analyses of future climate change scenarios, where changes in the SPEI values in the island are projected to be way clearer than changes in SPI values.
本研究利用ERA50-Land连续网格数据对整个西西里岛的干旱发生情况和趋势进行了时空分析。我们首先使用标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)来评估 1950 年至 2023 年不同时间尺度的干旱状况。然后,采用修正的 Mann-Kendall 检验来检测趋势,并使用 Sen 的斜率估算器来量化趋势的程度。对历史序列的分析证实,2002 年是旱情最严重的一年,影响了从短期到长期的所有时间尺度。空间分析表明,西西里岛西部地区经历的干旱事件最为严重,频率也最高。相比之下,东北部地区与该岛其他地区相比受影响程度较轻。分析发现,该岛东部沿海地区的 SPI 值呈显著上升趋势,这可能与历史上降水量增加有关。另一方面,对 SPEI 的分析表明,该岛西部呈显著下降趋势,这主要与蒸散率增加有关。这些结果与之前对未来气候变化情景的分析部分吻合,在这些情景中,预计该岛 SPEI 值的变化比 SPI 值的变化要明显得多。
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引用次数: 0
An Early Warning System for Urban Fluvial Floods Based on Rainfall Depth–Duration Thresholds and a Predefined Library of Flood Event Scenarios: A Case Study of Palermo (Italy) 基于降雨深度-持续时间阈值和预定义洪水事件情景库的城市冲积洪水预警系统:巴勒莫(意大利)案例研究
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.3390/w16182599
Dario Pumo, Marco Avanti, Antonio Francipane, Leonardo V. Noto
Several cities are facing an increasing flood risk due to the coupled effect of climate change and urbanization. Non-structural protection strategies, such as Early Warning Systems (EWSs), have demonstrated significant potential in mitigating hydraulic risk and often become the primary option when the implementation of structural measures is impeded by the complexities of urban environments. This study presents a new EWS designed specifically for fluvial floods in the city of Palermo (Italy), which is crossed by the Oreto River. The system is based on the preliminary definition of various Flood Event Scenarios (FESs) as a function of typical precursors, such as rainfall forecasts, and antecedent wetness and river flow conditions. Antecedent conditions are derived from real-time water stage observations at an upstream river section, while rainfall forecasts are provided by the Italian National Surveillance Meteorological Bulletins with a preannouncement time of up to 36 h. An innovative feature of the system is the use of rainfall Depth–Duration Thresholds to predict the expected hydrograph peak, significantly reducing warning issuing times. A specific FES, immediately accessible from a pre-built library, can be linked to any combination of precursors. Each FES predicts the timing and location of the first points of flooding; flood-prone areas and water depths; and specific hazard maps for elements typically exposed in cities, such as people, vehicles, and buildings. The EWS has been tested on a historical flood event, demonstrating satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the location, extent, and severity of the flood.
由于气候变化和城市化的双重影响,一些城市正面临着越来越大的洪水风险。早期预警系统(EWS)等非结构性保护策略在减轻水力风险方面已显示出巨大潜力,当结构性措施的实施因城市环境的复杂性而受阻时,这些策略往往成为首要选择。本研究介绍了专为巴勒莫市(意大利)流洪设计的新型预警系统,巴勒莫市被奥雷托河(Oreto River)横穿。该系统基于各种洪水事件场景(FES)的初步定义,这些场景是典型前兆(如降雨预报)、前湿度和河流流量条件的函数。前兆条件来自上游河段的实时水位观测,而降雨预报则由意大利国家监测气象公报提供,预报时间长达 36 小时。该系统的一个创新功能是利用降雨深度-持续时间阈值来预测预期的水文峰值,从而大大缩短预警发布时间。特定的 FES 可立即从预建库中获取,并可与任何前兆的组合相连接。每个 FES 都能预测洪水首点的时间和位置;洪水易发区和水深;以及城市中通常暴露在外的元素(如人、车辆和建筑物)的具体危害图。EWS 已通过历史洪水事件的测试,在再现洪水位置、范围和严重程度方面的准确性令人满意。
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引用次数: 0
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