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Assessing the Hydrologic Response of a Major Drinking Water Reservoir to Extreme Flood Events and Climate Change Using SWAT and OASIS 利用 SWAT 和 OASIS 评估一个主要饮用水水库对极端洪水事件和气候变化的水文响应
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/w16182572
Supria Paul, Soni M. Pradhanang, Thomas B. Boving
Extreme flood events present a significant challenge for operators and managers of large drinking water reservoirs. Detailed flood response analysis can predict the hydrology response of a reservoir to changing climate conditions and can aid in managing the reservoir in anticipation of extreme events. Herein, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed model, was used in conjunction with a reservoir management model, the Operational Analysis and Simulation of Integrated Systems (OASIS) model, to evaluate extreme flood events across a set of initial reservoir storage capacities across various CMIP6 climate scenarios. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with PRISM climate data in conjunction with land and soil cover data and multi-site gauged stream discharges. The validated model demonstrated satisfactory performance (NSE = 0.55 and R2 = 0.56) for total reservoir inflow. The resulting inflow values from SWAT were utilized to set up a calibrated/validated OASIS model (NSE = 0.55 and R2 = 0.68). OASIS was then used to assess alternative operating rules for the reservoir under varying climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and extreme events (synthetic hurricanes). Focusing on a major reservoir in the Northeastern United States, the analysis of the reservoir response was based on (1) reservoir volume–elevation curve, (2) daily reservoir inflow, (3) daily precipitation, (4) spillway flow, and (5) reservoir evaporation. Projected future scenarios indicate a >20% increase in precipitation in April compared to historical records, coupled with likely reduced runoff from November to March. With extreme conditions most likely in the month of April, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections suggest that most scenarios result in a 10–15% increase in the mean of 3D30Y runoff volumes, and a 150% increase under the most extreme conditions. For 7D30Y runoff volumes in April, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 analyses reveal an increased likelihood of the reservoir elevation reaching overspill flow levels during the latter half of the simulation period (2020 to 2080). Our findings indicate that simulations with SWAT coupled with OASIS can assist reservoir managers in regulating water levels in anticipation of extreme precipitation events.
极端洪水事件给大型饮用水水库的运营和管理者带来了巨大挑战。详细的洪水响应分析可以预测水库对不断变化的气候条件的水文响应,并有助于在预测极端事件时对水库进行管理。在本文中,水土评估工具(SWAT)这一流域模型与水库管理模型(综合系统运行分析与仿真模型(OASIS))结合使用,对各种 CMIP6 气候情景下一组初始水库库容的极端洪水事件进行了评估。SWAT 模型利用 PRISM 气候数据、土地和土壤覆盖数据以及多站点测量的溪流排水量进行了校准和验证。经过验证的模型在水库总流量方面表现令人满意(NSE = 0.55,R2 = 0.56)。利用 SWAT 得出的流入量值建立了校准/验证的 OASIS 模型(NSE = 0.55 和 R2 = 0.68)。然后,利用 OASIS 评估不同气候情景(RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5)和极端事件(合成飓风)下水库的替代运行规则。以美国东北部的一个主要水库为重点,对水库响应的分析基于 (1) 水库容积-高程曲线、(2) 每日水库流入量、(3) 每日降水量、(4) 溢洪道流量和 (5) 水库蒸发量。预测的未来情景表明,与历史记录相比,4 月份的降水量将增加 20%以上,同时 11 月至次年 3 月的径流量可能会减少。由于 4 月份最有可能出现极端情况,RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 预测表明,大多数情况下,3D30Y 径流量的平均值会增加 10-15%,在最极端的情况下会增加 150%。对于 4 月份的 7D30Y 径流量,RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 分析表明,在模拟期的后半段(2020 年至 2080 年),水库水位达到溢流水平的可能性增加。我们的研究结果表明,利用 SWAT 和 OASIS 进行模拟可以帮助水库管理者在预测极端降水事件时调节水位。
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引用次数: 0
Zinc Oxide/Moringa Oleifera Gum-Grafted L-Methionine-Functionalized Polyaniline Bionanocomposites for Water Purification 用于水净化的氧化锌/油橄榄树胶接枝 L-蛋氨酸功能化聚苯胺仿生复合材料
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/w16182576
Mohd Saquib Tanweer, Zafar Iqbal, Adil Majeed Rather, Masood Alam
This study evaluates the preparation of novel ternary functional adsorbents based on polyaniline, zinc oxide nanoparticles, and moringa oleifera gum to produce zinc oxide/Moringa oleifera gum-grafted L-methionine-functionalized polyaniline bionanocomposites (ZM-g-Pani) and employed to sequestrate divalent metal ions (Cd2+, Hg2+ and Pb2+) from wastewater samples. The morphological and structural properties of ZM-g-Pani were exploited using FT-IR, FE-SEM/EDS, TEM, and XRD. FT-IR and FE-SEM studies show that the as prepared nanocomposite has an abundant number of reactive groups and a porous structure, thus demonstrating outstanding divalent metal cation removal. FT-IR study confirms that the attachment of L-methionine to polyaniline is facilitated by the C-S linkage. Both TEM and FE-SEM techniques confirmed the clustered granules of ZnO over the surface of polyaniline, which ultimately provided more surface area to adsorb metal ions. The study demonstrated that Cd2+, Hg2+ and Pb2+ ions could undergo physical sorption and chemisorption simultaneously during the adsorption process. The maximum adsorption capacity was 840.33, 497.51, and 497.51 mg/g for Cd2+, Hg2+, and Pb2+, respectively. The impact of co-existing ions, including NO3–, PO43–, SO42–, Cl–, Na+, Cu2+, and Al3+, showed that there were no notable alterations in the adsorption of the selected metal ions with ZM-g-Pani. ZM-g-Pani showed eight successive regeneration cycles for Cd2+, Hg2+, and Pb2+ with more than 85% removal efficiency.
本研究评估了基于聚苯胺、纳米氧化锌颗粒和油杉树胶的新型三元功能吸附剂的制备情况,以制备氧化锌/油杉树胶接枝 L-蛋氨酸功能化聚苯胺仿生复合材料(ZM-g-Pani),并用于吸附废水样品中的二价金属离子(Cd2+、Hg2+ 和 Pb2+)。FT-IR 和 FE-SEM 研究表明,所制备的纳米复合材料具有大量的活性基团和多孔结构,因此对二价金属阳离子的去除效果显著。傅立叶变换红外光谱研究证实,L-蛋氨酸与聚苯胺的连接是通过 C-S 连接实现的。TEM 和 FE-SEM 技术都证实了聚苯胺表面的 ZnO 颗粒成簇,最终为吸附金属离子提供了更大的表面积。研究表明,在吸附过程中,Cd2+、Hg2+ 和 Pb2+ 离子可同时进行物理吸附和化学吸附。Cd2+、Hg2+ 和 Pb2+ 的最大吸附容量分别为 840.33、497.51 和 497.51 mg/g。共存离子(包括 NO3-、PO43-、SO42-、Cl-、Na+、Cu2+ 和 Al3+)的影响表明,ZM-g-Pani 对所选金属离子的吸附没有明显变化。ZM-g-Pani 对 Cd2+、Hg2+ 和 Pb2+ 连续进行了八次再生循环,去除率超过 85%。
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引用次数: 0
Common Carp (Cyprinus carpio) Reinvasion and Population Expansion in Lake Winona: A Modified Urban Floodplain Lake in Minnesota, USA 维诺纳湖中鲤鱼(Cyprinus carpio)的再入侵和种群扩张:美国明尼苏达州一个改良型城市洪泛区湖泊
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/w16182571
Neal D. Mundahl, Avery C. Schnaser, Christopher M. Kluzak, McKenzie L. Henkelman
Common or European carp (Cyprinus carpio) were eliminated from Lake Winona during a 1973 lake reclamation project. Multiple efforts to prevent their return and eliminate spawning opportunities have failed. Carp have remained in the lake for the past 50 years, but more recent observations of spawning activity in the lake suggest that their numbers have increased. We used shoreline electrofishing data from Lake Winona (2005–2021), along with carp abundance and effects models, to estimate the abundance of carp in Lake Winona, and to evaluate the need for future carp management within the lake. Carp size (mean TL = 614 mm, mean weight = 3.42 kg) did not differ between eastern and western basins, but densities were three times higher in the western basin (105 compared to 34 fish/hectare), and carp had significantly higher relative weights in the western (117%) versus the eastern (107%) basin. Carp biomass estimates for the eastern (116 kg/hectare) and western (360 kg/hectare) basins suggest that the lake may soon experience significant declines in macrophyte cover and other ecological damage associated with that loss. With an estimated adult carp population of >6900 fish and a carp biomass (23,750 kg) 1.5 times greater than the biomass of all carp killed during the 1973 reclamation, carp management activities (e.g., fish removal and spawning migration barriers) should be initiated soon to protect the Lake Winona game fish community.
在 1973 年的一次填湖工程中,鲤鱼(Cyprinus carpio)从维诺纳湖中消失。为防止鲤鱼返回并消除产卵机会而进行的多次努力均告失败。在过去的 50 年中,鲤鱼一直留在湖中,但最近对湖中产卵活动的观察表明,鲤鱼的数量有所增加。我们利用维诺纳湖(2005-2021 年)的沿岸电鱼数据以及鲤鱼丰度和效应模型,估算了维诺纳湖中鲤鱼的丰度,并评估了未来对湖中鲤鱼进行管理的必要性。东部流域和西部流域的鲤鱼体型(平均 TL = 614 毫米,平均重量 = 3.42 千克)没有差异,但西部流域的密度是东部流域的三倍(105 条/公顷,而东部流域为 34 条/公顷),而且西部流域的鲤鱼相对重量(117%)明显高于东部流域(107%)。东部流域(116 千克/公顷)和西部流域(360 千克/公顷)的鲤鱼生物量估计值表明,湖泊的大型植物覆盖率可能很快会大幅下降,并造成其他相关的生态破坏。据估计,鲤鱼成鱼数量超过 6900 尾,鲤鱼生物量(23,750 千克)是 1973 年填海期间被杀死的所有鲤鱼生物量的 1.5 倍,因此应尽快启动鲤鱼管理活动(如清除鱼类和产卵洄游障碍),以保护威诺纳湖的野生鱼类群落。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution and Quantitative Characterization of Stress and Displacement of Surrounding Rock Structure due to the Multiple Layers Backfill Mining under Loose Aquifers 松散含水层下多层回填采矿引起的围岩结构应力和位移的演变及定量表征
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/w16182574
Jiawei Liu, Wanghua Sui
Backfill mining is an important means of ensuring the high efficiency and safety of the coal mining under thin bedrock and loose aquifers. Based on the case study of Taiping Coalmine, the theoretical analysis of entropy and numerical modeling methods are adopted to establish the visualization model of temporal–spatial cube of stress and displacement induced by the multiple layers backfill mining. Moreover, the quantitative characterization and measurement framework of symmetric KL-divergence is established based on information entropy and mutual information. The results show that: (1) The non-uniformity of stress and displacement is enhanced due to the multiple layers backfill mining, showing certain fluctuation characteristics. (2) The KL-divergence of stress to displacement is slightly greater than that of displacement to stress, and the hotspot distribution law of stress–displacement related efficiency is consistent with KL-divergence. (3) The hotspots of stress entropy and the gap between stress entropy and displacement entropy in multiple layers backfill mining decrease obviously. (4) Stress plays a main role in displacement, and displacement is a linkage response to stress due to the coordinated deformation. Multiple layers backfill mining results in an enhanced correlation degree and more chaotic state between stress and displacement. The results will provide engineering geological basis for optimal design and safe production of backfill mining under loose aquifers.
回填开采是保证薄基岩和松散含水层下煤炭高效安全开采的重要手段。基于太平煤矿的案例研究,采用熵的理论分析和数值建模方法,建立了多层回填开采诱发应力和位移的时空立方体可视化模型。此外,基于信息熵和互信息,建立了对称 KL-发散的定量表征和测量框架。结果表明(1)多层回填开采导致应力和位移的非均匀性增强,呈现出一定的波动特征。(2)应力与位移的 KL 发散略大于位移与应力的 KL 发散,应力与位移相关效率的热点分布规律与 KL 发散一致。(3)多层回填开采的应力熵热点及应力熵与位移熵的差距明显减小。(4)应力对位移起主要作用,位移是协调变形对应力的联动响应。多层回填开采使应力与位移之间的相关性增强,更趋于混沌状态。研究结果将为松散含水层下回填采矿的优化设计和安全生产提供工程地质依据。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of an Ensemble Inflow-Prediction System for Upstream Reservoirs in Sai River, Japan 日本西河上游水库流量集合预测系统研究
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/w16182577
Katsunori Tamakawa, Shigeru Nakamura, Cho Thanda Nyunt, Tomoki Ushiyama, Mohamed Rasmy, Keijiro Kubota, Asif Naseer, Eiji Ikoma, Toshihiro Nemoto, Masaru Kitsuregawa, Toshio Koike
In this study, an ensemble inflow-prediction system was developed for a hydropower-generation dam in the upper Sai River basin, and the accuracy of ensemble inflow prediction, which is important for efficient dam operation, was investigated. First, the Water and Energy Based Distributed Hydrological Model for Snow (WEB-DHM-S), a hydrological model developed for the Sai River basin, can represent the hydrological process from warm to cold seasons. Next, a system was developed on the Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) to predict inflows into the dam by inputting real-time meteorological data and ensemble rainfall forecast data into WEB-DHM-S. The WEB-DHM-S was calibrated and validated over a 3-year period from August 2015 to July 2018, and showed good agreement with observed inflows from base flow to peak flow and snowmelt runoff in each year. The results of inflow forecasting during frontal rainfall in August 2021 by inputting ensemble rainfall forecasts up to 39 h ahead showed that at the Inekoki Dam site, the total inflow (volume) to the peak was predicted with an accuracy of within 20% at 30 h, 24 h, 18 h, 12 h, and 6 h before the peak. These ensemble inflow forecasts can help optimize dam operations.
本研究为赛河流域上游的一个水力发电大坝开发了一个集合流入量预测系统,并研究了集合流入量预测的准确性,这对大坝的高效运行非常重要。首先,为赛河流域开发的水文模型 "基于水和能量的雪地分布式水文模型(WEB-DHM-S)"可代表从暖季到冷季的水文过程。接下来,在数据集成与分析系统(DIAS)上开发了一个系统,通过向 WEB-DHM-S 输入实时气象数据和集合降雨预报数据来预测流入大坝的流量。WEB-DHM-S 在 2015 年 8 月至 2018 年 7 月的 3 年期间进行了校核和验证,结果显示与每年从基流到峰值流量和融雪径流的观测流入量吻合良好。在 2021 年 8 月锋面降雨期间,通过提前 39 小时输入集合降雨预报进行流入量预报的结果表明,在伊内科基大坝站点,在峰值前 30 小时、24 小时、18 小时、12 小时和 6 小时预测峰值总流入量(体积)的准确率在 20% 以内。这些集合流入量预测有助于优化大坝运行。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Distribution and Health Risk Assessment of Saline Water Intrusion and Potentially Hazardous Pollutants in a Coastal Groundwater Environment 沿海地下水环境中盐水入侵和潜在有害污染物的空间分布与健康风险评估
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/w16182573
Zengbing Sun, Xiao Yang, Sen Liu, Jiangbo Wang, Mingbo Li
In coastal plains, saline water intrusion (SWI) and potentially hazardous pollutants are harmful to local human health. The southern Laizhou Bay has become a typical representative of the northern silty coast due to its extensive silt sedimentation and the significant impact of human activities. This research focuses on a portion of the southern Laizhou Bay, using GIS-based spatial analysis, water quality index methods and health risk assessments to evaluate the impact of saltwater intrusion and potential hazardous pollutants. The results show that the groundwater in the study area is significantly impacted by saline water intrusion, leading to major ion concentrations that far exceed World Health Organization (WHO) standards. The groundwater chemical types of brine and brackish water in the study area are mainly Cl-Na, and the main chemical types of fresh water are HCO3-Ca·Na. The average concentration sequence of the main ions in groundwater is K+ > HCO3− > Cl− > Na+ > SO42− > Ca2+ > Mg2+. The average hazard quotient (HQ) sequence in typical pollutants is Cl− > F− > NO3-N > Se > Mn > NO2-N > Cu > Pb > Zn > Fe, and the carcinogenic risk (CR) sequence caused by carcinogenic heavy metals is Cd > As > Cr. The noncarcinogenic health risk area is mainly distributed in the northwest of the study area, while the potential carcinogenic risk area is in the central region. The Cl is the greatest noncarcinogenic risk to adults and children. The mean HQ values for adults and children were 95.69 and 146.98, indicating a significant noncarcinogenic risk. The mean CR values for adults and children were 0.00037 and 0.00057, suggesting a relatively low carcinogenic risk. SWI is the main influencing factor on human health; therefore, it is necessary to prevent and control SWI. Moreover, potentially hazardous pollutants are carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks and are caused by agriculture, industry and other human activities. The findings of this research offer scientific insights for groundwater pollution control and saline water intrusion management in similar coastal areas.
在沿海平原,盐水入侵(SWI)和潜在的有害污染物对当地人类健康造成危害。莱州湾南部因其广泛的淤泥沉积和人类活动的重大影响,已成为北方淤泥质海岸的典型代表。本研究以莱州湾南部部分海域为研究对象,采用基于地理信息系统的空间分析、水质指数法和健康风险评估等方法,对海水入侵和潜在有害污染物的影响进行了评价。结果表明,研究区域的地下水受到盐水入侵的严重影响,导致主要离子浓度远远超过世界卫生组织(WHO)的标准。研究区地下水化学类型中盐水和咸水主要为 Cl-Na,淡水主要为 HCO3-Ca-Na。地下水中主要离子的平均浓度顺序为 K+ > HCO3- > Cl- > Na+ > SO42- > Ca2+ > Mg2+。典型污染物的平均危害商数(HQ)序列为 Cl- > F- > NO3-N > Se > Mn > NO2-N > Cu > Pb > Zn > Fe,致癌重金属的致癌风险(CR)序列为 Cd > As > Cr。非致癌健康风险区主要分布在研究区域的西北部,而潜在致癌风险区则在中部地区。Cl对成人和儿童的非致癌风险最大。成人和儿童的 HQ 平均值分别为 95.69 和 146.98,表明非致癌风险很大。成人和儿童的平均 CR 值分别为 0.00037 和 0.00057,表明致癌风险相对较低。SWI 是影响人类健康的主要因素,因此有必要预防和控制 SWI。此外,潜在有害污染物具有致癌和非致癌风险,是由农业、工业和其他人类活动造成的。本研究的结果为类似沿海地区的地下水污染控制和盐水入侵管理提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Emerging Contaminants in Landfill Leachate and Groundwater: A Case Study of Hazardous Waste Landfill and Municipal Solid Waste Landfill in Northeastern China 垃圾填埋场渗滤液和地下水中的新污染物:中国东北地区危险废物填埋场和城市固体废物填埋场案例研究
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/w16182575
Nan Zhang, Zhihao Zhang, Chunyang Li, Jiani Yue, Yan Su, Weiguo Cheng, Shoushan Sun, Xi Chen, Deyu Shi, Bo Liu
Emerging contaminants (ECs) present a significant risk to both the ecological environment and human health. Landfill leachate (LL) often contains elevated EC levels, posing a potential risk to localized groundwater. This study aimed to characterize ECs in municipal solid waste landfills (MSWLs) and hazardous waste landfills (HWLs) in northeast (NE) China. One and three HWLs and MSWLs in NE China with varying types, operational years, and impermeable layers were selected as case studies, respectively. Statistical analysis of 62 indicators of nine ECs in leachate and the groundwater environment indicated the presence of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), antibiotics, alkylphenols (APs), and bisphenol A (BPA). The leachates of the four landfills exhibited elevated concentrations of ECs of 21.03 μg/L, 40.04 μg/L, 14.54 μg/L, and 43.05 μg/L for PFCs, antibiotics, Aps, and BPA, respectively. There was a positive correlation between the highest concentrations of ECs in groundwater and those in leachate as well as with operational duration of the landfill; in contrast, groundwater EC was negatively correlated with the degree of impermeability. This study can guide future management of ECs in landfills and hazardous waste sites in China, particularly in NE China.
新出现的污染物(ECs)对生态环境和人类健康都构成重大风险。垃圾填埋场沥滤液(LL)中的EC含量通常较高,对局部地下水构成潜在风险。本研究旨在分析中国东北地区城市固体废物填埋场(MSWL)和危险废物填埋场(HWL)的导电率特征。研究分别选取了中国东北地区不同类型、不同运营年限和不同防渗层的 1 个和 3 个危险废物填埋场和城市固体废物填埋场作为案例。对渗滤液和地下水环境中的九项ECs的62个指标进行统计分析,结果表明存在全氟化合物(PFCs)、抗生素、烷基酚(APs)和双酚A(BPA)。四个垃圾填埋场渗滤液中的全氟化合物、抗生素、烷基酚和双酚 A 的 ECs 浓度分别为 21.03 μg/L、40.04 μg/L、14.54 μg/L 和 43.05 μg/L。地下水中氨基甲酸乙酯的最高浓度与沥滤液中氨基甲酸乙酯的最高浓度以及垃圾填埋场的运行时间呈正相关;相反,地下水氨基甲酸乙酯与防渗程度呈负相关。这项研究可为今后中国(尤其是东北地区)垃圾填埋场和危险废物场地的导电率管理提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Water Yield Services and Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios in Henan Province, China 中国河南省生态系统水产服务的时空动态及对未来土地利用情景的响应
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.3390/w16172544
Shuxue Wang, Tianyi Cai, Qian Wen, Chaohui Yin, Jing Han, Zhichao Zhang
Water yield (WY) service is the cornerstone of ecosystem functionality. Predicting and assessing the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on WY is imperative for a nation’s food security, regional economic development, and ecological environmental protection. This study aimed to evaluate the water yield (WY) service in Henan Province, China, using high-resolution (30 m) remote sensing land use monitoring data from four study years: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It also utilized the PLUS model to predict the characteristics of LULC evolution and the future trends of WY service under four different development scenarios (for 2030 and 2050). The study’s results indicated the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the Henan Province’s WY first increased and then decreased, ranging from 398.56 × 108 m3 to 482.95 × 108 m3. The southern and southeastern parts of Henan Province were high-value WY areas, while most of its other regions were deemed low-value WY areas. (2) The different land use types were ranked in terms of their WY capacity, from strongest to weakest, as follows: unused land, cultivated land, grassland, construction land, woodland, and water. (3) The four abovementioned scenarios were ranked, from highest to lowest, based on the Henan’s total WY (in 2050) in each of them: high-quality development scenario (HDS), business-as-usual scenario (BAU), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (ES). This study contributes to the advancement of ecosystem services research. Its results can provide scientific support for water resource management, sustainable regional development, and comprehensive land-use planning in Henan Province.
产水量(WY)服务是生态系统功能的基石。预测和评估土地利用/土地覆盖(LULC)变化对水产量的影响对于国家粮食安全、区域经济发展和生态环境保护至关重要。本研究旨在利用四个研究年份的高分辨率(30 米)遥感土地利用监测数据,对中国河南省的水资源产量(WY)服务进行评估:本研究旨在利用 1990、2000、2010 和 2020 这四个研究年份的高分辨率(30 米)土地利用遥感监测数据,对河南省的水资源产量服务进行评估。研究还利用 PLUS 模型预测了四种不同发展情景下(2030 年和 2050 年)土地利用、土地利用变化和水产服务的演变特征及未来趋势。研究结果如下(1)从 1990 年到 2020 年,河南省的 WY 量先增后减,从 398.56×108 m3 增至 482.95×108 m3。河南省南部和东南部为高 WY 值地区,其他大部分地区为低 WY 值地区。(2) 不同土地利用类型的水源涵养能力从强到弱依次为:未利用地、耕地、草地、建设用地、林地和水域。(3) 根据河南省 2050 年的总 WY,对上述四种情景进行了从高到低的排序:高质量发展情景 (HDS)、一切照旧情景(BAU)、耕地保护情景(CPS)和生态保护情景(ES)。本研究有助于推动生态系统服务研究。研究结果可为河南省水资源管理、区域可持续发展和土地利用综合规划提供科学支持。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution and Analysis of Water Yield under the Change of Land Use and Climate Change Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin in Henan Province 基于 PLUS-InVEST 模型的土地利用变化和气候变化下的产水量演变与分析:河南省黄河流域案例研究
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.3390/w16172551
Xiaoyu Ma, Shasha Liu, Lin Guo, Junzheng Zhang, Chen Feng, Mengyuan Feng, Yilun Li
Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the land use/cover change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario 1), ecological development priority (Scenario 2), and cropland development priority (Scenario 3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low-stress (SSP119), medium-stress (SSP245), and high-stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) by 2030, the water yield of Scenario 1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing Scenario 2 by 1.60 × 108 m3; (4) climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 54.95 × 108 m3 higher water yield than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies.
了解土地利用、气候变化和区域产水量之间的相互关系对于有效的水资源管理和生态系统保护至关重要。然而,对于水资源产量在不同土地利用方案和气候变化情况下如何演变的全面见解仍然难以捉摸。本研究在一个统一的框架内采用生态系统服务和权衡综合评估(InVEST)模型、斑块生成土地利用模拟(PLUS)模型和 Geodetector,以评估土地利用、产水量的动态及其与各种因素(气象、社会、经济等)的关系。为了预测黄河流域到 2030 年的土地利用/植被变化(LUCC)模式,考虑了三种情景:经济优先发展(情景 1)、生态优先发展(情景 2)和耕地优先发展(情景 3)。利用 CMIP6 数据构建了气候变化情景,分别代表低压力(SSP119)、中压力(SSP245)和高压力(SSP585)条件。结果显示如下(1) 2000-2020 年,河南省黄河流域以耕地为主,大量土地向不透水土地(建设用地)和林地转化;(2) 这一时期的产水量变化主要受气象因素影响,土地利用变化的影响可以忽略不计;(3) 到 2030 年,在不同土地利用方案中,方案 1 的产水量最高,略微超过方案 2 1.60 × 108 立方米;(4) 气候情景显示出显著差异,SSP126 的产水量比 SSP245 高 54.95 × 108 立方米,主要受降水驱动;(5) Geodetector 分析认为降水是影响最大的单一因素,气象和社会经济因素之间存在显著的相互作用。这些发现为决策者和研究人员制定土地利用和水资源管理战略提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive Zoning Strategies for Flood Disasters in China 中国洪水灾害综合分区战略
IF 3.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.3390/w16172546
Huipan Li, Yuan Wang, Liying Ping, Na Li, Peng Zhao
The frequency of global floods has increased, posing significant threats to economic development and human safety. Existing flood risk zoning studies in disaster prevention lack integration of the natural–economic–social chain and urban resilience factors. This study addresses this gap by constructing flood disaster risk and intensity indices using data from 31 provinces and 295 prefectural-level cities in China from 2011 to 2022. These indices incorporate natural (rainfall), economic (GDP), and social (population, built-up area) indicators to assess the flood likelihood and loss degree, providing comprehensive risk and intensity ratings. The study also examines the impact of resilience factors—environmental (green space), infrastructural (rainwater pipeline density), and natural resource (watershed areas)—on flood intensity. Findings reveal that high-risk regions are mainly in the Yangtze River Basin and southern regions, while high-intensity regions are primarily in the middle and lower Yangtze River and certain northwestern cities. Increasing rainwater pipeline density mitigates flood impacts in high-risk, high-intensity areas, while expanding green spaces and pipelines are effective in high-risk, low-intensity regions. This paper proposes a comprehensive flood hazard zoning mechanism integrating natural, economic, and social factors with urban resilience, offering insights and a scientific basis for urban flood management.
全球洪灾的频率不断增加,对经济发展和人类安全构成了重大威胁。现有的防灾洪水风险区划研究缺乏对自然-经济-社会链和城市抗灾能力因素的整合。为弥补这一不足,本研究利用 2011 年至 2022 年中国 31 个省和 295 个地级市的数据,构建了洪水灾害风险和强度指数。这些指数综合了自然(降雨量)、经济(GDP)和社会(人口、建成区面积)指标,评估了洪水发生的可能性和损失程度,提供了全面的风险和强度评级。研究还探讨了环境(绿地)、基础设施(雨水管道密度)和自然资源(流域面积)等复原力因素对洪水强度的影响。研究结果表明,高风险地区主要位于长江流域和南方地区,而高强度地区主要位于长江中下游和某些西北城市。在高风险、高强度地区,增加雨水管道密度可减轻洪水影响,而在高风险、低强度地区,扩大绿地和管道可有效减轻洪水影响。本文提出了一种将自然、经济和社会因素与城市抗灾能力相结合的综合洪水灾害分区机制,为城市洪水管理提供了启示和科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
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