Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240126-00091
L Zou, C Zhang, L Tong, X Liu, J Ma, J G Wang, F Wang, X Gao, L Xi, J M Zhang
The study focused on individuals with influenza-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, and other respiratory symptoms) in three kindergartens in Tongzhou District, Beijing City, in April 2023. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected, and real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR was used to detect common respiratory pathogens in the collected specimens. Positive specimens were subjected to sequencing analysis of the highly variable region of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) G protein, homology analysis and phylogenetic tree analysis. A total of 25 fever cases were collected from 3 kindergartens, aged 3-8 years old, with an age M (Q1, Q3) of 4 (3.5, 5) years old. Ten confirmed cases of HRSV positive were screened and detected using the fluorescent quantitative PCR method, with a total detection rate of 40% (10/25). Typing identification and sequencing analysis confirmed that the main epidemic type was HRSV subtype B, which was highly homologous and closely related to previous epidemic strains in the region. Through pathogen investigation and analysis, it was preliminarily determined that this epidemic was dominated by HRSV subtype B.
{"title":"[Pathogenic investigation of human respiratory syncytial virus infection in kindergarten children in Tongzhou District, Beijing City in 2023].","authors":"L Zou, C Zhang, L Tong, X Liu, J Ma, J G Wang, F Wang, X Gao, L Xi, J M Zhang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240126-00091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240126-00091","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The study focused on individuals with influenza-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, and other respiratory symptoms) in three kindergartens in Tongzhou District, Beijing City, in April 2023. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected, and real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR was used to detect common respiratory pathogens in the collected specimens. Positive specimens were subjected to sequencing analysis of the highly variable region of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) G protein, homology analysis and phylogenetic tree analysis. A total of 25 fever cases were collected from 3 kindergartens, aged 3-8 years old, with an age <i>M</i> (<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>, <i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>) of 4 (3.5, 5) years old. Ten confirmed cases of HRSV positive were screened and detected using the fluorescent quantitative PCR method, with a total detection rate of 40% (10/25). Typing identification and sequencing analysis confirmed that the main epidemic type was HRSV subtype B, which was highly homologous and closely related to previous epidemic strains in the region. Through pathogen investigation and analysis, it was preliminarily determined that this epidemic was dominated by HRSV subtype B.</p>","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1150-1153"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240111-00044
Q L Yin, X Yu, X Li, B Fang, X L Zhang, M W Peng, G J Ye, L L Liu
Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) in patients with acute respiratory infection (ARIs) in sentinel hospitals of the Hubei influenza surveillance network from 2016 to 2023. Methods: ARIs samples [including influenza-like cases (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI)] were collected from influenza surveillance sentinel hospitals in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2023, and case information was collected. HRSV virus nucleic acid typing was performed by fluorescence quantitative PCR method, and the data were collated, plotted and analyzed. Results: From 2016 to 2023, 12 779 cases of ILI and 9 166 cases of SARI were collected. The positive rate of HRSV was the highest in<5 years of age group [15.77% (168/1 065)], among which the positive rate was the highest in 2 to 5 years of age group of ILI cases [13.60% (31/228)], and the positive rate was the highest in 0 to 2 years of age group of SARI cases [25.97% (60/231)] (all P values<0.001). The positive rate of HRSV in SARI cases was 2.31%-25.97%, higher than that in ILI cases (0-13.60%) (P=0.016). HRSV was prevalent in autumn and winter from 2016 to 2020 and in spring in 2023. Alternating epidemics of HRSV virus type A and B in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2023 (dominant epidemics of type B in 2016 and 2020; dominant epidemics of type A in 2017-2019 and 2023). Conclusion: SARI and ILI patients under five years old are the main infection groups of HRSV. The seasonal prevalence characteristics of HRSV in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2023 shift from autumn and winter to spring.
{"title":"[Epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2023].","authors":"Q L Yin, X Yu, X Li, B Fang, X L Zhang, M W Peng, G J Ye, L L Liu","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240111-00044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240111-00044","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) in patients with acute respiratory infection (ARIs) in sentinel hospitals of the Hubei influenza surveillance network from 2016 to 2023. <b>Methods:</b> ARIs samples [including influenza-like cases (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI)] were collected from influenza surveillance sentinel hospitals in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2023, and case information was collected. HRSV virus nucleic acid typing was performed by fluorescence quantitative PCR method, and the data were collated, plotted and analyzed. <b>Results:</b> From 2016 to 2023, 12 779 cases of ILI and 9 166 cases of SARI were collected. The positive rate of HRSV was the highest in<5 years of age group [15.77% (168/1 065)], among which the positive rate was the highest in 2 to 5 years of age group of ILI cases [13.60% (31/228)], and the positive rate was the highest in 0 to 2 years of age group of SARI cases [25.97% (60/231)] (all <i>P</i> values<0.001). The positive rate of HRSV in SARI cases was 2.31%-25.97%, higher than that in ILI cases (0-13.60%) (<i>P</i>=0.016). HRSV was prevalent in autumn and winter from 2016 to 2020 and in spring in 2023. Alternating epidemics of HRSV virus type A and B in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2023 (dominant epidemics of type B in 2016 and 2020; dominant epidemics of type A in 2017-2019 and 2023). <b>Conclusion:</b> SARI and ILI patients under five years old are the main infection groups of HRSV. The seasonal prevalence characteristics of HRSV in Hubei Province from 2016 to 2023 shift from autumn and winter to spring.</p>","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1129-1134"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240131-00106
H Y Shi, K L Zheng, C E Fan, H J Cai, T T Ma, H Y Ning, H T Wang, J J Zhang, X Y Wang
Methods: A total of 392 patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis were selected from the population of the epidemiological investigation project of allergic diseases in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. The project was led by Department of Allergy, Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, and assisted by Hohhot First Hospital from April to May 2023. The patients were randomly divided into a spleen aminopeptide group (296 cases) and control group (96 cases) at a ratio of 3∶1, and the enrollment period was from June 1 to 14, 2023. The treatment group was treated with spleen aminopeptide oral solution for 12 weeks starting from 4-6 weeks (±7 days) before the pollen dispersal period, while the control group was treated with a simulated agent of spleen aminopeptide oral solution. Both the treatment group and the control group were treated with oral antihistamines and/or nasal glucocorticoids as needed during the pollen dispersal period. Evaluate the therapeutic effect by comparing the symptom scores, drug scores and quality of life scores of the two groups, and detect the expression levels of cytokines in serum. Symptom scores, quality of life scores, drug scores and laboratory results were compared by independent sample t test/Kruskal-Wallis test and χ2 test/Fisher's exact test. Results: Compared with the control group, spleen aminopeptide treatment for 12 weeks significantly improved symptoms of nasal congestion [M(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. 2(1, 3), H=6.308, P<0.05], nasal itching [M(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. 2(1, 3), H=4.966, P<0.05], sneezing [M(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. 2(1, 3), H=5.245, P<0.05], runny nose [M(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. 2(1, 3), H=5.41, P<0.05] and tearing [M(Q1,Q3):1(0, 2) vs. 1(0, 3), H=4.664, P<0.05]. At 12 weeks of treatment, the scores of nasal symptoms and ocular symptoms in control group and experimental group were significantly increased compared with baseline (P<0.05). In experimental group, nasal congestion [M(Q1,Q3):1(0, 1) vs. 1(0, 2), H=4.042, P<0.05], eye itching/foreign body sensation/redness symptom scores [M(Q1,Q3):1(0, 2) vs. 1(0, 2), H=5.302, P<0.05] and total scores [M(Q1,Q3):4(-1, 9) vs. 5(0, 12.5), H=3.958, P<0.05] were significantly increased. The antihistamine drug score of the splenic peptide treatment group at 6 weeks were lower than that of the control group (H=4.232, P<0.05). After 12 weeks of treatment, the antihistamine drug score [M(Q1
研究方法从内蒙古呼和浩特市过敏性疾病流行病学调查项目人群中选取 392 例季节性过敏性鼻炎患者。该项目由首都医科大学附属北京世纪坛医院变态反应科牵头,呼和浩特市第一医院协助,时间为2023年4月至5月。患者按3∶1的比例随机分为脾氨肽组(296例)和对照组(96例),入组时间为2023年6月1日至14日。治疗组在花粉传播期前 4-6 周(±7 天)开始使用健脾氨肽口服液治疗 12 周,对照组使用健脾氨肽口服液模拟制剂治疗。在花粉传播期间,治疗组和对照组均根据需要口服抗组胺药和/或鼻用糖皮质激素。通过比较两组的症状评分、药物评分和生活质量评分,并检测血清中细胞因子的表达水平,评价治疗效果。通过独立样本 t 检验/Kruskal-Wallis 检验和 χ2 检验/Fisher's exact 检验比较症状评分、生活质量评分、药物评分和实验室结果。结果与对照组相比,脾氨肽治疗12周可明显改善鼻塞症状[M(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. M(Q1,Q3):2(1, 3), H2(1, 3), H=6.308, PM(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. 2(1, 3), H=4.966, PM(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. 2(1, 3), H=5.245, PM(Q1,Q3):2(1, 2) vs. 2(1, 3), H=5.41, PM(Q1,Q3):1(0, 2) vs. 1(0, 3), H=4.966.1(0, 3), H=4.664, PM(Q1,Q3):1(0, 1) vs. 1(0, 2), H=4.042, PM(Q1,Q3):1(0, 2) vs. 1(0, 2), H=5.302, PM(Q1,Q3):4(-1, 9) vs. 5(0, 12.5), H=3.958, PH=4.232, PM(Q1,Q3):10(0, 24) vs. 19(2, 36.5), H=6.67, PM(Q1,Q3):28.5(5, 77.5) vs. 46(6, 155.5), H=3.995, Pvs.0.85±1.67,H=10.08, Pvs.0.94±1.73,H=5.196, PConclusions:脾氨肽口服液早期治疗可明显改善季节性过敏性鼻炎患者的鼻部和眼部症状,减少发病期的药物使用,提高生活质量。它可能通过降低患者血清中 IL-17A 的表达水平而发挥免疫调节作用。研究目的对内蒙古呼和浩特市季节性过敏性鼻炎的预防和治疗进行研究,评估脾氨肽口服液对季节性过敏性鼻炎的预防和治疗效果,并探讨其相关机制。
{"title":"[Application study on the prevention and treatment of spleen aminopeptide oral solution on seasonal allergic rhinitis].","authors":"H Y Shi, K L Zheng, C E Fan, H J Cai, T T Ma, H Y Ning, H T Wang, J J Zhang, X Y Wang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240131-00106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240131-00106","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Methods:</b> A total of 392 patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis were selected from the population of the epidemiological investigation project of allergic diseases in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia. The project was led by Department of Allergy, Beijing Shijitan Hospital, Capital Medical University, and assisted by Hohhot First Hospital from April to May 2023. The patients were randomly divided into a spleen aminopeptide group (296 cases) and control group (96 cases) at a ratio of 3∶1, and the enrollment period was from June 1 to 14, 2023. The treatment group was treated with spleen aminopeptide oral solution for 12 weeks starting from 4-6 weeks (±7 days) before the pollen dispersal period, while the control group was treated with a simulated agent of spleen aminopeptide oral solution. Both the treatment group and the control group were treated with oral antihistamines and/or nasal glucocorticoids as needed during the pollen dispersal period. Evaluate the therapeutic effect by comparing the symptom scores, drug scores and quality of life scores of the two groups, and detect the expression levels of cytokines in serum. Symptom scores, quality of life scores, drug scores and laboratory results were compared by independent sample <i>t</i> test/Kruskal-Wallis test and <i>χ</i><sup>2</sup> test/Fisher's exact test. <b>Results:</b> Compared with the control group, spleen aminopeptide treatment for 12 weeks significantly improved symptoms of nasal congestion [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):2(1, 2) <i>vs.</i> 2(1, 3), <i>H</i>=6.308, <i>P</i><0.05], nasal itching [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):2(1, 2) <i>vs.</i> 2(1, 3), <i>H</i>=4.966, <i>P</i><0.05], sneezing [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):2(1, 2) <i>vs.</i> 2(1, 3), <i>H</i>=5.245, <i>P</i><0.05], runny nose [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):2(1, 2) <i>vs.</i> 2(1, 3), <i>H</i>=5.41, <i>P</i><0.05] and tearing [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):1(0, 2) <i>vs.</i> 1(0, 3), <i>H</i>=4.664, <i>P</i><0.05]. At 12 weeks of treatment, the scores of nasal symptoms and ocular symptoms in control group and experimental group were significantly increased compared with baseline (<i>P</i><0.05). In experimental group, nasal congestion [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):1(0, 1) <i>vs.</i> 1(0, 2), <i>H</i>=4.042, <i>P</i><0.05], eye itching/foreign body sensation/redness symptom scores [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):1(0, 2) <i>vs.</i> 1(0, 2), <i>H</i>=5.302, <i>P</i><0.05] and total scores [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>):4(-1, 9) <i>vs.</i> 5(0, 12.5), <i>H</i>=3.958, <i>P</i><0.05] were significantly increased. The antihistamine drug score of the splenic peptide treatment group at 6 weeks were lower than that of the control group (<i>H</i>=4.232, <i>P</i><0.05). After 12 weeks of treatment, the antihistamine drug score [<i>M</i>(<i>Q</i><sub>1</su","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1219-1229"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240104-00016
Y L Liang, W Z Wei, Q Z Hou, K K Huang, J Z Liao, J Liao, B Yi
The present study aims to screen and evaluate the early clinical predictors for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in Hunan province. A cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2023 to October 2023 to collect data on long-term T2DM patients who settled in Hunan province and were treated in the Department of Geriatrology at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. The patients were grouped according to the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scale. Basic patient information and multiple serum markers were collected, and differences between groups were compared using one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis (KW) tests. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to assess risk factors and Nomogram models were constructed. The logistic regression analysis showed that years of education and serum levels of 1, 5-AG were related factors for the progression of T2DM to T2DM with MCI, and body weight, years of education and FPN levels affected the progression of T2DM with MCI to T2DM with dementia. Based on this, two Nomogram risk prediction models were established. The area under the curve (AUC) of the Nomogram model predicting T2DM progression to T2DM combined with MCI was 0.741, and the AUC of the Nomogram model predicting T2DM combined with MCI progression to T2DM combined with dementia was 0.734. The calibration curves (DCA) of the two models in the training and validation sets were symmetrically distributed near the diagonal line, indicating that the models in the training and validation sets could match each other. In summary, body weight, years of education, and serum HDL-3, FPN, and 1, 5-AG levels are associated with the development of MCI and dementia in T2DM patients. The Nomogram models constructed based on these factors can predict the risk of MCI and dementia in T2DM patients, providing a basis for clinical decision-making.
{"title":"[Screening and evaluation of clinical predictors of type 2 diabetes mellitus with cognitive impairment].","authors":"Y L Liang, W Z Wei, Q Z Hou, K K Huang, J Z Liao, J Liao, B Yi","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240104-00016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240104-00016","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The present study aims to screen and evaluate the early clinical predictors for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia in Hunan province. A cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2023 to October 2023 to collect data on long-term T2DM patients who settled in Hunan province and were treated in the Department of Geriatrology at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University. The patients were grouped according to the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scale. Basic patient information and multiple serum markers were collected, and differences between groups were compared using one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis (KW) tests. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to assess risk factors and Nomogram models were constructed. The logistic regression analysis showed that years of education and serum levels of 1, 5-AG were related factors for the progression of T2DM to T2DM with MCI, and body weight, years of education and FPN levels affected the progression of T2DM with MCI to T2DM with dementia. Based on this, two Nomogram risk prediction models were established. The area under the curve (AUC) of the Nomogram model predicting T2DM progression to T2DM combined with MCI was 0.741, and the AUC of the Nomogram model predicting T2DM combined with MCI progression to T2DM combined with dementia was 0.734. The calibration curves (DCA) of the two models in the training and validation sets were symmetrically distributed near the diagonal line, indicating that the models in the training and validation sets could match each other. In summary, body weight, years of education, and serum HDL-3, FPN, and 1, 5-AG levels are associated with the development of MCI and dementia in T2DM patients. The Nomogram models constructed based on these factors can predict the risk of MCI and dementia in T2DM patients, providing a basis for clinical decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1184-1190"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983450","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231212-00433
K L Chen, J C Jiang, W C Jiang, L J Wang, S W Li, Z W Liu, Y Y Gu, G J Zhang
Objective: To establish and verify a diagnostic model for distinguishing multiple sclerosis (MS) from other neurological diseases with similar symptoms by usingcerebrospinal fluid oligoclonal band (CSF-OCB)combined with IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators and biochemical markers. Methods: Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients admitted to the Neurology Department of Beijing Tiantan Hospital affiliated with Capital Medical University from January 2014 to December 2022 were selected as the case group, while patients with similar neurological symptoms were selected as the control group. Using the case-control study design, a retrospective analysis was conducted on the detection of age, gender, oligoclonal bands in cerebrospinal fluid, IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators and biochemical indicators for all study subjects. The differential diagnosis model was determined by the multiple logistic regression analysis, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the diagnostic efficiency of the differential diagnosis model for neurological diseases with similar symptoms to MS and other conditions. Results: This study included 167 patients in the case group and 335 patients in the control group, of which 128 patients in the case group and 265 patients in the control group were used to construct the model, and 39 patients in the case group and 70 patients in the control group were used for model validation. The differential diagnostic model constructed by a multivariate logistic regression model was Y=0.871×CSF-OCB-0.051×CSFprotein-0.231×CSFchloride+1.183×gender-0.036×LDH+35.770. The model showed that the area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity were respectively 0.916, 87.3% and 87.6%. The Delong test results showed that the diagnostic efficacy of the model was significantly different from OCB, IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators, and OCB combined with IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators (P<0.05). The new model validation showed that the actual diagnostic consistency rate for the MS group was 84.6%, while the actual diagnostic consistency rate for the control group was 90.0%. Conclusion: This study combines OCB, IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators, and biochemical indicators to establish a diagnostic prediction model for neurological diseases with similar clinical symptoms in MS. This model may have good differential diagnostic value and can better assist clinical diagnosis in the early stages of disease progression in MS patients.
{"title":"[The combined application of oligoclonal bands in cerebrospinal fluid and IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators and biochemical markers in the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis].","authors":"K L Chen, J C Jiang, W C Jiang, L J Wang, S W Li, Z W Liu, Y Y Gu, G J Zhang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231212-00433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231212-00433","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To establish and verify a diagnostic model for distinguishing multiple sclerosis (MS) from other neurological diseases with similar symptoms by usingcerebrospinal fluid oligoclonal band (CSF-OCB)combined with IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators and biochemical markers. <b>Methods:</b> Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients admitted to the Neurology Department of Beijing Tiantan Hospital affiliated with Capital Medical University from January 2014 to December 2022 were selected as the case group, while patients with similar neurological symptoms were selected as the control group. Using the case-control study design, a retrospective analysis was conducted on the detection of age, gender, oligoclonal bands in cerebrospinal fluid, IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators and biochemical indicators for all study subjects. The differential diagnosis model was determined by the multiple logistic regression analysis, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the diagnostic efficiency of the differential diagnosis model for neurological diseases with similar symptoms to MS and other conditions. <b>Results:</b> This study included 167 patients in the case group and 335 patients in the control group, of which 128 patients in the case group and 265 patients in the control group were used to construct the model, and 39 patients in the case group and 70 patients in the control group were used for model validation. The differential diagnostic model constructed by a multivariate logistic regression model was Y=0.871×CSF-OCB-0.051×CSFprotein-0.231×CSFchloride+1.183×gender-0.036×LDH+35.770. The model showed that the area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity were respectively 0.916, 87.3% and 87.6%. The Delong test results showed that the diagnostic efficacy of the model was significantly different from OCB, IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators, and OCB combined with IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators (<i>P</i><0.05). The new model validation showed that the actual diagnostic consistency rate for the MS group was 84.6%, while the actual diagnostic consistency rate for the control group was 90.0%. <b>Conclusion:</b> This study combines OCB, IgG intrathecal synthesis indicators, and biochemical indicators to establish a diagnostic prediction model for neurological diseases with similar clinical symptoms in MS. This model may have good differential diagnostic value and can better assist clinical diagnosis in the early stages of disease progression in MS patients.</p>","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1171-1176"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983454","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231113-00338
S R Wu, Y F Wang, D D Li
Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) laboratory tests are important for diagnosing central nervous system (CNS) diseases. Research on intrathecal immunoglobulin-related indexes has gradually attracted attention. The antibody index, which corrects for the effect of individual blood-brain barrier function on CSF antibody test results, is of great significance in the differential diagnosis, efficacy monitoring and prognostic assessment of CNS diseases. It is expected to become a new index for the diagnosis of CNS diseases. This article reviews the concept of antibody index and the research progress of differential diagnosis and treatment of various CNS diseases in order to provide references for the diagnosis, efficacy monitoring and disease progression assessment of CNS diseases.
{"title":"[Research progress on antibody index in the diagnosis and treatment of central nervous system diseases].","authors":"S R Wu, Y F Wang, D D Li","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231113-00338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231113-00338","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) laboratory tests are important for diagnosing central nervous system (CNS) diseases. Research on intrathecal immunoglobulin-related indexes has gradually attracted attention. The antibody index, which corrects for the effect of individual blood-brain barrier function on CSF antibody test results, is of great significance in the differential diagnosis, efficacy monitoring and prognostic assessment of CNS diseases. It is expected to become a new index for the diagnosis of CNS diseases. This article reviews the concept of antibody index and the research progress of differential diagnosis and treatment of various CNS diseases in order to provide references for the diagnosis, efficacy monitoring and disease progression assessment of CNS diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1197-1203"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240308-00198
Y Z Qin, Y L Shen, A W Liu, J J Wu, L F Miu, Q Fang, C X Shuai, L Jin
Objective: To investigate the genetic subtypes and drug resistance monitoring of newly reported human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS virus in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2023. Methods: An observational design study was used to collect blood samples from patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in the AIDS Prevention and Control Department of Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2020 to December 2023.The HIV-1 pol gene was amplified by reverse transcription-nested PCR, and the genetic subtypes were identified by phylogenetic tree analysis using MEGA 7.0 software. The mutation sites of drug resistance were analyzed by the online software tool of Stanford University's HIV Drug resistance database. The influencing factors of drug resistance before treatment were analyzed by multivariate logistic analysis. Results: A total of 335 plasma samples were collected, and 332 HIV-1 pol gene sequences were obtained successfully. The main gene subtypes were CRF01-AE, accounting for 35.55% (118/332), followed by CRF07-BC, B and B+C types [29.22% (97/332), 11.74% (39/332), 9.93% (33/332)]. The total drug resistance rate before treatment was 30.12%(32/100), and the drug resistance rate of protease inhibitor (PIs) in HIV-1 was 6.33% (21/332). The drug resistance rate of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) before treatment was 6.33% (21/332). The drug resistance rate of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) before treatment was 17.47% (58/332).The comparison of drug resistance rate of different drug types showed statistical significance (χ2=30.435, P<0.05).Among the 100 cases of drug resistance, the main mutation point of HIV-1 protease inhibitor was Q58E (21.00%), and the main mutation point of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor was M184V/I (6.00%). Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance mutation points mainly K103N (22.00%).There were statistically significant differences in the starting time of antiviral therapy, the number of CD4+T cells at baseline and the drug resistance rate of gene subtypes (the chi-square values are respectively 24.152, 32.516, 11.652, P<0.05).Multivariate logistic analysis showed that the baseline CD4+T cell count was <200/μl, subtype B, subtype B+C, CRF01-AE subtype, CRF55-01B subtype and 01-BC subtype was the influential factor of drug resistance before treatment (the chi-square values are respectively 4.577, 8.202, 4.416, 5.206, 7.603 and 4.804, P<0.05). Conclusion: The newly reported HIV/AIDS population in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2023 has a variety of viral gene subtypes, and NNRTIs are the main types of drug resistance gene mutations before treatment. Attention should be paid to the number of baseline CD4+T cells, the duration of antiviral treatment, and the distribution of gene subtypes to reduce the drug resistance of HIV/AIDS
{"title":"[Analysis of virus gene subtypes and drug resistance monitoring results of newly reported HIV/AIDS population in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2023].","authors":"Y Z Qin, Y L Shen, A W Liu, J J Wu, L F Miu, Q Fang, C X Shuai, L Jin","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240308-00198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240308-00198","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To investigate the genetic subtypes and drug resistance monitoring of newly reported human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS virus in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2023. <b>Methods:</b> An observational design study was used to collect blood samples from patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in the AIDS Prevention and Control Department of Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 2020 to December 2023.The HIV-1 pol gene was amplified by reverse transcription-nested PCR, and the genetic subtypes were identified by phylogenetic tree analysis using MEGA 7.0 software. The mutation sites of drug resistance were analyzed by the online software tool of Stanford University's HIV Drug resistance database. The influencing factors of drug resistance before treatment were analyzed by multivariate logistic analysis. <b>Results:</b> A total of 335 plasma samples were collected, and 332 HIV-1 pol gene sequences were obtained successfully. The main gene subtypes were CRF01-AE, accounting for 35.55% (118/332), followed by CRF07-BC, B and B+C types [29.22% (97/332), 11.74% (39/332), 9.93% (33/332)]. The total drug resistance rate before treatment was 30.12%(32/100), and the drug resistance rate of protease inhibitor (PIs) in HIV-1 was 6.33% (21/332). The drug resistance rate of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) before treatment was 6.33% (21/332). The drug resistance rate of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) before treatment was 17.47% (58/332).The comparison of drug resistance rate of different drug types showed statistical significance (<i>χ</i><sup>2</sup>=30.435, <i>P</i><0.05).Among the 100 cases of drug resistance, the main mutation point of HIV-1 protease inhibitor was Q58E (21.00%), and the main mutation point of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor was M184V/I (6.00%). Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance mutation points mainly K103N (22.00%).There were statistically significant differences in the starting time of antiviral therapy, the number of CD4<sup>+</sup>T cells at baseline and the drug resistance rate of gene subtypes (the chi-square values are respectively 24.152, 32.516, 11.652, <i>P</i><0.05).Multivariate logistic analysis showed that the baseline CD4<sup>+</sup>T cell count was <200/μl, subtype B, subtype B+C, CRF01-AE subtype, CRF55-01B subtype and 01-BC subtype was the influential factor of drug resistance before treatment (the chi-square values are respectively 4.577, 8.202, 4.416, 5.206, 7.603 and 4.804, <i>P</i><0.05). <b>Conclusion:</b> The newly reported HIV/AIDS population in Anhui Province from 2020 to 2023 has a variety of viral gene subtypes, and NNRTIs are the main types of drug resistance gene mutations before treatment. Attention should be paid to the number of baseline CD4<sup>+</sup>T cells, the duration of antiviral treatment, and the distribution of gene subtypes to reduce the drug resistance of HIV/AIDS","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1204-1212"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240305-00188
S L Hu, Y Yu, W Y Zhang, Y J Zhang, R P Li, A Q Xu, Z H Yang
In order to understand the knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of vaccination against influenza, pneumonia, human papillomavirus (HPV), herpes zoster (HZ), COVID-19, and hepatitis B among staff of vaccination units in Shandong Province, a sample survey was conducted among 797 staffs of adult vaccination units in 12 counties (cities and districts) of Shandong Province from August to September 2022. The results showed that the respondents had the highest total score of knowledge and attitude for the COVID-19 vaccine, with the M (Q1, Q3) of 23 (20, 25) and 10 (10, 10), respectively, and had the lowest score of knowledge and attitude for the herpes zoster vaccine, with the M (Q1, Q3) of 19 (15, 22) and 8 (8, 10), respectively. The vaccine-related knowledge point"vaccine applicable population"had the highest score, with the M (Q1,Q3) of 26 (23, 30). The "contraindications/adverse reactions" and "adverse reaction management" had the lowest score, with the M (Q1, Q3) of 24 (20, 29) and 24 (20, 28), respectively. About 89.71% of respondents received one adult vaccine within two years at least. The principal driver for vaccination of 53.58% of recipients was their understanding of vaccines, which was"it was necessary to receive the vaccine". About 66.00% of respondents who had not received any adult vaccine in the past two years had insufficient awareness of the necessity of vaccination and believed that they were in good health and did not need to receive it. In summary, the staff of adult vaccination units in Shandong Province have a poor understanding of the herpes zoster vaccine in terms of vaccines and a relatively poor understanding of"contraindications/adverse reaction and management"in adult vaccination knowledge points.
{"title":"[Knowledge, attitude and practices of adult vaccine among the staff of vaccination units in Shandong Province].","authors":"S L Hu, Y Yu, W Y Zhang, Y J Zhang, R P Li, A Q Xu, Z H Yang","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240305-00188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20240305-00188","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In order to understand the knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of vaccination against influenza, pneumonia, human papillomavirus (HPV), herpes zoster (HZ), COVID-19, and hepatitis B among staff of vaccination units in Shandong Province, a sample survey was conducted among 797 staffs of adult vaccination units in 12 counties (cities and districts) of Shandong Province from August to September 2022. The results showed that the respondents had the highest total score of knowledge and attitude for the COVID-19 vaccine, with the <i>M</i> (<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>, <i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>) of 23 (20, 25) and 10 (10, 10), respectively, and had the lowest score of knowledge and attitude for the herpes zoster vaccine, with the <i>M</i> (<i>Q</i><sub>1</sub>, <i>Q</i><sub>3</sub>) of 19 (15, 22) and 8 (8, 10), respectively. The vaccine-related knowledge point\"vaccine applicable population\"had the highest score, with the <i>M (Q</i><sub>1</sub>,<i>Q</i><sub>3</sub><i>)</i> of 26 (23, 30). The \"contraindications/adverse reactions\" and \"adverse reaction management\" had the lowest score, with the <i>M (Q</i><sub>1</sub>, <i>Q</i><sub>3</sub><i>)</i> of 24 (20, 29) and 24 (20, 28), respectively. About 89.71% of respondents received one adult vaccine within two years at least. The principal driver for vaccination of 53.58% of recipients was their understanding of vaccines, which was\"it was necessary to receive the vaccine\". About 66.00% of respondents who had not received any adult vaccine in the past two years had insufficient awareness of the necessity of vaccination and believed that they were in good health and did not need to receive it. In summary, the staff of adult vaccination units in Shandong Province have a poor understanding of the herpes zoster vaccine in terms of vaccines and a relatively poor understanding of\"contraindications/adverse reaction and management\"in adult vaccination knowledge points.</p>","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1252-1255"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231120-00354
L L Tian, B B Xing, Y M Zhang, J P Zhao
To investigate the strain composition and drug resistance characteristics of G+(Gram positive cocci) cocci causing bloodstream infections in the People's Hospital of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in recent years and provide a basis for the empirical and rational use of drugs for the prevention and treatment of bloodstream infections caused by G+cocci. The strain composition and drug-resistant characteristics of G+cocci isolated from positive blood culture specimens sent to various departments of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region People's Hospital from January 2015 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, and the higher detection rates of Staphylococcus hominis and Staphylococcus epidermidis, Enterococcus faecium and Enterococcus faecalis, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) were examined. MRSA and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) were comparatively analyzed for resistance. The resistance data were analyzed by Whonet 5.6 statistical software, the significance of difference was analyzed by SPSS 22.0 software, and the resistance rate was compared by χ2 test. The results showed that 1 209 strains of G+cocci, in terms of the composition ratio, from high to low, were mainly human staphylococci (32.5%,393/1 209), Staphylococcus epidermidis (27.8%, 336/1 209), Staphylococcus aureus (14.9%,180/1 209) and Enterococcus faecalis (10.6%, 128/1 209). Among them, the detection rate of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) (42.8%, 77/180) was lower than that of methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative staphylococcus (MRCNS) (71.5%, 608/850); and among enterococci, the detection rate of Enterococcus faecalis (71.5%, 128/179) was much higher than that of Enterococcus faecalis (28.5%, 51/179). For drug resistance, the resistance rate to five commonly used antimicrobial drugs, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, clindamycin and tetracycline, was higher in Staphylococcus hominis than in Staphylococcus epidermidis (χ2=7.152-64.080, P<0.05); however, for the aminoglycoside antimicrobial drug gentamicin, the rate of resistance in Staphylococcus humanus was lower than in Staphylococcus epidermidis, and the difference was statistically significant (χ2=11.895, P<0.05); no strains resistant to linezolid and vancomycin were found in both. Comparison of the resistance rates to seven antimicrobial drugs, gentamicin, rifampicin, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, clindamycin and tetracycline, was significantly higher in MRSA than in MSSA (χ2=6.169-56.941, P<0.05); however, the resistance rate to cotrimoxazole, MRSA (15.6%, 12/77) was significantly lower than that of MSSA (35.3%, 36/102), and the difference was statistically significant (χ2=5.155, P<0.05); MRSA and MSSA resistant to
{"title":"[Distribution and antibiotic resistance analysis of Gram positive cocci in bloodstream infections in a hospital in Inner Mongolia].","authors":"L L Tian, B B Xing, Y M Zhang, J P Zhao","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231120-00354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231120-00354","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>To investigate the strain composition and drug resistance characteristics of G<sup>+</sup>(Gram positive cocci) cocci causing bloodstream infections in the People's Hospital of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in recent years and provide a basis for the empirical and rational use of drugs for the prevention and treatment of bloodstream infections caused by G<sup>+</sup>cocci. The strain composition and drug-resistant characteristics of G<sup>+</sup>cocci isolated from positive blood culture specimens sent to various departments of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region People's Hospital from January 2015 to December 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, and the higher detection rates of Staphylococcus hominis and Staphylococcus epidermidis, Enterococcus faecium and Enterococcus faecalis, and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) were examined. MRSA and methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) were comparatively analyzed for resistance. The resistance data were analyzed by Whonet 5.6 statistical software, the significance of difference was analyzed by SPSS 22.0 software, and the resistance rate was compared by <i>χ</i><sup>2</sup> test. The results showed that 1 209 strains of G<sup>+</sup>cocci, in terms of the composition ratio, from high to low, were mainly human staphylococci (32.5%,393/1 209), Staphylococcus epidermidis (27.8%, 336/1 209), Staphylococcus aureus (14.9%,180/1 209) and Enterococcus faecalis (10.6%, 128/1 209). Among them, the detection rate of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) (42.8%, 77/180) was lower than that of methicillin-resistant coagulase-negative staphylococcus (MRCNS) (71.5%, 608/850); and among enterococci, the detection rate of Enterococcus faecalis (71.5%, 128/179) was much higher than that of Enterococcus faecalis (28.5%, 51/179). For drug resistance, the resistance rate to five commonly used antimicrobial drugs, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, clindamycin and tetracycline, was higher in Staphylococcus hominis than in Staphylococcus epidermidis (<i>χ</i><sup>2</sup>=7.152-64.080, <i>P</i><0.05); however, for the aminoglycoside antimicrobial drug gentamicin, the rate of resistance in Staphylococcus humanus was lower than in Staphylococcus epidermidis, and the difference was statistically significant (<i>χ</i><sup>2</sup>=11.895, <i>P<</i>0.05); no strains resistant to linezolid and vancomycin were found in both. Comparison of the resistance rates to seven antimicrobial drugs, gentamicin, rifampicin, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, clindamycin and tetracycline, was significantly higher in MRSA than in MSSA (<i>χ</i><sup>2</sup>=6.169-56.941, <i>P</i><0.05); however, the resistance rate to cotrimoxazole, MRSA (15.6%, 12/77) was significantly lower than that of MSSA (35.3%, 36/102), and the difference was statistically significant (<i>χ</i><sup>2</sup>=5.155, <i>P<</i>0.05); MRSA and MSSA resistant to ","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1242-1246"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-06DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231226-00496
L H Zhang, J Wang, B Yao, X Y Chu, Z D Sun, C F Ma
Objective: To construct a prediction model for the clinical supply of blood components in Xi'an City from 2023 to 2025. Methods: Based on the blood supply data of the Blood Management Information System of Shaanxi Provincial Blood Center from January 2013 to December 2022, a gray prediction model and an exponential curve fitting model were used to construct the prediction model, and the optimal prediction model was determined according to the error parameters of the relevant indicators of the model. The supply of blood components in Xi'an from 2023 to 2025 was predicted. Results: The fitting equations of the exponential curve fitting model to predict the supply of suspended red blood cells, platelets and cryoprecipitate in Xi'an were, x(1)(t+1)=1.16e0.04t,x(1)(t+1)=1.04e0.12t and x(1)(t+1)=1.01e1.10t, respectively. The mean absolute errors (mean relative errors) of the exponential curve fitting model in predicting the supply of suspended red blood cells, platelets and cryoprecipitate in Xi'an were 10 488.7 (0.05%), 2 114.9 (0.08%) and 3 089.6 (0.07%), respectively, which were lower than those of the gray prediction model, about 10 488.7 (3.44%), 2 152.78 (8.20%) and 3 441.35 (7.92%), respectively. The exponential curve fitting model predicted that the clinical supply of blood components in Xi'an would increase year by year from 2023 to 2025, and the clinical supply of suspended red blood cells, platelets, and cryoprecipitate in Xi'an would increase to 409 467 U, 69 818 therapeutic volume and 94 724 U, respectively by 2025. Conclusion: The exponential curve fitting model can make a good prediction of the clinical supply of blood components in Xi'an City.
{"title":"[Prediction of the clinical supply of blood components in Xi'an City from 2023 to 2025].","authors":"L H Zhang, J Wang, B Yao, X Y Chu, Z D Sun, C F Ma","doi":"10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231226-00496","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20231226-00496","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><b>Objective:</b> To construct a prediction model for the clinical supply of blood components in Xi'an City from 2023 to 2025. <b>Methods:</b> Based on the blood supply data of the Blood Management Information System of Shaanxi Provincial Blood Center from January 2013 to December 2022, a gray prediction model and an exponential curve fitting model were used to construct the prediction model, and the optimal prediction model was determined according to the error parameters of the relevant indicators of the model. The supply of blood components in Xi'an from 2023 to 2025 was predicted. <b>Results:</b> The fitting equations of the exponential curve fitting model to predict the supply of suspended red blood cells, platelets and cryoprecipitate in Xi'an were, <i>x</i><sup>(1)</sup>(<i>t</i>+1)=1.16e<sup>0.04</sup><i><sup>t</sup></i>,<i>x</i><sup>(1)</sup>(<i>t</i>+1)=1.04e<sup>0.12</sup><i><sup>t</sup></i> and <i>x</i><sup>(1)</sup>(<i>t</i>+1)=1.01e<sup>1.10</sup><i><sup>t</sup></i>, respectively. The mean absolute errors (mean relative errors) of the exponential curve fitting model in predicting the supply of suspended red blood cells, platelets and cryoprecipitate in Xi'an were 10 488.7 (0.05%), 2 114.9 (0.08%) and 3 089.6 (0.07%), respectively, which were lower than those of the gray prediction model, about 10 488.7 (3.44%), 2 152.78 (8.20%) and 3 441.35 (7.92%), respectively. The exponential curve fitting model predicted that the clinical supply of blood components in Xi'an would increase year by year from 2023 to 2025, and the clinical supply of suspended red blood cells, platelets, and cryoprecipitate in Xi'an would increase to 409 467 U, 69 818 therapeutic volume and 94 724 U, respectively by 2025. <b>Conclusion:</b> The exponential curve fitting model can make a good prediction of the clinical supply of blood components in Xi'an City.</p>","PeriodicalId":24033,"journal":{"name":"中华预防医学杂志","volume":"58 8","pages":"1213-1218"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141983411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}