We present a simple, finite-state search model to understand how the cross-sectional distribution of money affects its value. We first document a network effect: the value of a given unit of money is higher when its distribution is even, rather than skewed. We also find some distributions to be destabilizing: there is strong incentive to form coalitions to“repudiate the incumbent and re-issue new currency” when the distribution is skewed. In this regard, we suggest that conventional “Nash” monetary equilibria be refined to be “coalition-proof” in the spirit of Bernheim et al. (1987). Our approach highlights the merits of investigating non-stationary distributions per se, as opposed to (the typically favored) steady states. This approach is designed to be especially pertinent in the context of private issuance of money, in particular, cryptocurrencies.
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Korean Abstract: 이 글은 현재의 북한 경제체제에 대해 일정한 개념틀을 가지고 설명을 제시하는 것을 연구의 주된 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 북한 경제주체들의 행동양식 및 이들의 상호작용에 분석의 초점을 맞추고, 북한 경제체제에 관한 북한경제 전문가 설문결과를 실시해 그 결과를 활용한다. 북한의 현재 경제체제는 사회주의 국가들의 경제개혁 단계에서 나타나는 현상들과 공통점과 상이점이 동시에 관찰되었다. 전문가 평가에서도 북한 경제개혁의 보편성을 강조하는 전문가와 특수성을 강조하는 전문가들이 갈렸다. 전자의 경우, 개혁의 내용이 다른 사회주의 국가와 유사하다는 점, 특히 자원배분 메커니즘이 계획 위주에서 계획/시장 병행으로 전환하고 있다는 점을 강조했다. 후자의 경우, 북한의 특수성은 예컨대 3대 세습과 같이 정치적 측면에서 두드러지며, 경제적으로는 가격/소유권 등 부문별 개혁의 불균등성, 현실 변화의 사후적 승인으로서의 성격 등을 지적했다. 또한 이러한 계획/시장 병존의 체제가 형성된 데는 경제난, 재정난이라는 배경이 중요하지만 북한 특유의 ‘자력갱생’ 방침도 결코 무시할 수 없는 핵심적 요인이다. 특히 ‘자력갱생’ 방침으로 인해 국가뿐 아니라 기업, 개인, 기관, 지방이 경제의 핵심 5주체를 형성하게 되면서 이들이 시장화의 진전과 이해관계를 같이 하게 되었다는 점이 중요하다. 나아가 권력층, 돈주(錢主)가 공생관계를 형성하면서 이들의 경제활동이 현재와 같은 경제체제를 이끌어가는 핵심 동력을 형성하게 되는 등 현재 경제체제는 일시적이 아닌 구조적인 성격, 나아가 불가역적인 성격을 가지게 되었다. English Abstract: In this paper, we try to explain the economic system in North Korea using a conceptual framework. To this end, we focus on the behavior patterns of North Korean economic agents and their interactions, conduct a questionnaire survey of North Korean economic experts about the North Korean economic system, and then utilize the results. In North Korea’s current economic system, both similarities and differences with certain phenomena displayed at various stages of economic reform in socialist nations were observed at the same time. Experts’ evaluations were divided. There were those who emphasized the universality of North Korea’s economic reforms, and those who emphasized its peculiarities. In the former case, it was emphasized that the content of North Korean reforms is similar to that seen in other socialist countries, especially in that the resource allocation mechanism was shifting from plan-oriented to plan and market parallel. In the latter case, North Korea's peculiarity stands out because of its political aspects, such as the third generation hereditary succession, and they noted the inequality of reforms by sector, such as price/ownership economically, and the nature of post-mortem approval of changes that have already occurred. In addition, the background of economic and financial difficulties is important for the formation of these plans / market coexistence systems. However, the policy of “self-rehabilitation” peculiar to North Korea is also a core factor that cannot be ignored. In particular, it is important that companies, individuals, institutions, and provinces, as well as the state, form the five core economic actors of the “self-rehabilitation” policy, and that they share an interest in the progress of marketization. Furthermore, the current economic system has a structural and irreversible character, rather than a temporary character, as the power class and the donju form a symbiotic relationship. Their economic activities form the core driving force behind the current economic system.
Korean Abstract:这篇文章的主要目的是对目前的北韩经济体制以一定的概念框架进行说明。为此，将把分析的焦点放在北韩经济主体的行动方式及他们的相互作用上，实施有关北韩经济体制的北韩经济专家问卷调查结果，并灵活运用其结果。北韩目前的经济体制与社会主义国家经济改革阶段出现的现象同时得到了观察。在专家评价中，强调北韩经济改革普遍性的专家和强调特殊性的专家也有所不同。前者强调，改革的内容与其他社会主义国家相似，特别是资源分配机制正在从计划为主转换为计划/市场并行。在后一种情况下，他指出了北韩的特殊性像三代世袭一样在政治方面非常突出，在经济上价格/所有权等各部门改革的不均等性，作为事后承认现实变化的性质等。另外，形成这种计划/市场并存的体制，经济困难、财政困难的背景固然重要，但北韩特有的“自力更生”方针也是不可忽视的核心因素。特别是，由于“自力更生”方针，不仅是国家，企业、个人、机构、地方也形成了经济的“核心五主体”，使这些人与市场化的进展达成了共同的利害关系，这一点非常重要。随着权力阶层、大个子形成共生关系，他们的经济活动形成了引领现在这种经济体制的核心动力，现在的经济体制不是暂时的，而是结构性的，甚至是不可逆转的。英语Abstract: In this paper, we try to explain the economic system In North Korea using a conceptual framework。To this end, we focus on the behavior patterns of North Korean economic agents and their interactions，conduct a questionnaire survey of North Korean经济experts about the North Korean economic system, and then utilize the results。In North Korea ' s current economic system, both similarities and differences with certain phenomena displayed at various stages of economic reform In socialist nations were observed at the same time。experts ' evaluations were divided。There were those who emphasized the universality of North Korea ' s economic reforms, and those who emphasized its peculiarities。the former case, it was emphasized that the content of North Korean reforms is similar to that seen In other socialist countriesespecially in that the resource allocation mechanism was shifting from plan-oriented to plan and market parallel。North Korea's peculiarity stands out because of its political aspects, such as the third generation hereditary succession, and they noted the inequality of reforms by sector，such as price/ownership economically, and the nature of post-mortem approval of changes that have already occurred。the background of economic and financial difficulties is important for the formation of these plans / market coexistence systems。However, the policy of " self-rehabilitation " peculiar to North Korea is also a core factor that cannot be ignored。In particular, it is important that companies, individuals, institutions, and provinces, as well as the state, form the five core economic actors of the " self-rehabilitation " policy，and that they share an interest in the progress of marketization。Furthermore, the current economic system has a structural and irreversible character, rather than a temporary character, as the power class and the donju form a symbiotic relationship。Their economic activities form the core driving force behind the current economic system。
{"title":"북한의 경제체제에 관한 연구: 실태와 평가 (A Study on North Korea’s Econonic System: Actual Conditions and Evaluation)","authors":"Moon-soo Yang, S. Lim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3913767","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3913767","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 이 글은 현재의 북한 경제체제에 대해 일정한 개념틀을 가지고 설명을 제시하는 것을 연구의 주된 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 북한 경제주체들의 행동양식 및 이들의 상호작용에 분석의 초점을 맞추고, 북한 경제체제에 관한 북한경제 전문가 설문결과를 실시해 그 결과를 활용한다. 북한의 현재 경제체제는 사회주의 국가들의 경제개혁 단계에서 나타나는 현상들과 공통점과 상이점이 동시에 관찰되었다. 전문가 평가에서도 북한 경제개혁의 보편성을 강조하는 전문가와 특수성을 강조하는 전문가들이 갈렸다. 전자의 경우, 개혁의 내용이 다른 사회주의 국가와 유사하다는 점, 특히 자원배분 메커니즘이 계획 위주에서 계획/시장 병행으로 전환하고 있다는 점을 강조했다. 후자의 경우, 북한의 특수성은 예컨대 3대 세습과 같이 정치적 측면에서 두드러지며, 경제적으로는 가격/소유권 등 부문별 개혁의 불균등성, 현실 변화의 사후적 승인으로서의 성격 등을 지적했다. 또한 이러한 계획/시장 병존의 체제가 형성된 데는 경제난, 재정난이라는 배경이 중요하지만 북한 특유의 ‘자력갱생’ 방침도 결코 무시할 수 없는 핵심적 요인이다. 특히 ‘자력갱생’ 방침으로 인해 국가뿐 아니라 기업, 개인, 기관, 지방이 경제의 핵심 5주체를 형성하게 되면서 이들이 시장화의 진전과 이해관계를 같이 하게 되었다는 점이 중요하다. 나아가 권력층, 돈주(錢主)가 공생관계를 형성하면서 이들의 경제활동이 현재와 같은 경제체제를 이끌어가는 핵심 동력을 형성하게 되는 등 현재 경제체제는 일시적이 아닌 구조적인 성격, 나아가 불가역적인 성격을 가지게 되었다. English Abstract: In this paper, we try to explain the economic system in North Korea using a conceptual framework. To this end, we focus on the behavior patterns of North Korean economic agents and their interactions, conduct a questionnaire survey of North Korean economic experts about the North Korean economic system, and then utilize the results. In North Korea’s current economic system, both similarities and differences with certain phenomena displayed at various stages of economic reform in socialist nations were observed at the same time. Experts’ evaluations were divided. There were those who emphasized the universality of North Korea’s economic reforms, and those who emphasized its peculiarities. In the former case, it was emphasized that the content of North Korean reforms is similar to that seen in other socialist countries, especially in that the resource allocation mechanism was shifting from plan-oriented to plan and market parallel. In the latter case, North Korea's peculiarity stands out because of its political aspects, such as the third generation hereditary succession, and they noted the inequality of reforms by sector, such as price/ownership economically, and the nature of post-mortem approval of changes that have already occurred. In addition, the background of economic and financial difficulties is important for the formation of these plans / market coexistence systems. However, the policy of “self-rehabilitation” peculiar to North Korea is also a core factor that cannot be ignored. In particular, it is important that companies, individuals, institutions, and provinces, as well as the state, form the five core economic actors of the “self-rehabilitation” policy, and that they share an interest in the progress of marketization. Furthermore, the current economic system has a structural and irreversible character, rather than a temporary character, as the power class and the donju form a symbiotic relationship. Their economic activities form the core driving force behind the current economic system.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130088091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 글로벌 금융위기 이후 우리나라 재화 수출의 글로벌 소득 에 대한 탄력성이 하락한 원인을 분석한다. 2000년~2019년 국제산업연관 표를 이용하여 우리 재화 수출의 소득탄력성 변동 요인을 분해한 결과, 국 제생산구조 변화와 글로벌 최종수요구조 변화 모두 소득탄력성 하락 요인 으로 작용하였으나 국제생산구조 변화의 영향이 상대적으로 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 국제생산구조 변화는 미국, 중국 등 주요국에서 교역유발 효과 가 낮은 서비스 중간투입 비중이 상승하는 방향으로 기술구조가 변화하는 가운데 중국에서 중간투입재 국산화가 지속적으로 진행된 데 주로 기인하 였다. 또한 글로벌 최종수요구조 변화는 글로벌 서비스 수요 증가, 최종재 에 대한 수입대체를 통해 우리 재화 수출의 소득탄력성을 낮추는 것으로 분석되었으며 신흥국 경제 비중 증가에 따른 부정적 영향은 나타나지 않았 다. 향후에도 글로벌 경제의 서비스 비중 상승, 글로벌 공급망 리스크 축소 등에 따른 자국 생산 제품으로의 수요 대체는 우리나라 재화 수출의 소득 탄력성을 낮춤으로써 글로벌 경기 회복 시에도 우리나라 수출 확대에 제약 요인으로 작용할 가능성이 있다 하겠다. English Abstract: This paper investigates the causes of decline in the elasticity of Korea’s goods exports with respect to global income in the post global financial crisis. Using international input-output tables from the years 2000 to 2019, I show that both the change in the international production structure and the change in the global final demand structure contributed to the decrease in the income elasticity, with the effect of the former relatively larger. The effect of the change in the international production structure on the income elasticity was driven by the steady localization of intermediate inputs in China, while the technological structure in countries such as the United States and China changed in higher input share of services which are low trade-inducing. In addition, the change in the global final demand structure was found to lower the income elasticity through increased service demand and substitution for imported goods. However, there were no negative effects from the increased share of emerging economies in global final demand. In the future, continuing expansion of service sectors in global economy and the localization of production to reduce global supply chain risks are likely to constrain the expansion of Korea’s exports even during a global economic recovery.
Korean Abstract:本研究分析了全球金融危机以后我国货物出口对全球收入弹性下降的原因。2000年~ 2019年国际产业关系表,利用我们的货物出口的收入弹性变动因素分解的结果,国际生产结构变化和全球最终需求结构变化都收入弹性下降因素起作用,但国际生产结构变化的影响相对更大的显示。国际生产结构变化的主要原因是，美国、中国等主要国家的技术结构向贸易诱发效果低的服务中间投入比重上升的方向变化，而中国的中间投入材料国产化持续进行。另外，据分析，全球最终需求结构的变化通过全球服务需求的增加和最终产品的进口替代，降低了韩国商品出口的收入弹性，并没有出现新兴国家经济比重增加带来的负面影响。未来服务全球经济的比重也上升,全球供应链风险减少等替代带来的本国生产的产品,需要的我国货物出口的收入弹性,降低全球经济复苏时也会对我国扩大出口制约因素有可能。英语:This paper investigates of decline in the elasticity of Korea ' s goods exports with respect to global income in the post global financial crisis。国际目录表从2000年到2019年I show that both the change in the international production structure and the change in the global final demand structure contributed to the decrease in the income elasticity，with the effect of the former relatively larger。effect of The change in The international production structure on The income elasticity was driven by The steady localization of intermediate inputs in China;while the technological structure in countries such as the United States and China changed in higher input share of services which are low trade-inducing。In addition, the change In the global final demand structure was found to lower the income elasticity through increased service demand and substitution for imported goods霍维尔，there were no negative effects from the increased share of emerging economies in global final demand。in the future,continuing expansion of service sectors in global economy and the localization of production to reduce global supply chain risks are likely to constrain the expansion of Korea ' s exports even during aglobal economic site。
{"title":"우리 수출의 글로벌 소득탄력성 하락 요인 분석 (The Causes of Decline in the Income Elasticity of Korea’s Exports)","authors":"Kyungkeun Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3906981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3906981","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 글로벌 금융위기 이후 우리나라 재화 수출의 글로벌 소득 에 대한 탄력성이 하락한 원인을 분석한다. 2000년~2019년 국제산업연관 표를 이용하여 우리 재화 수출의 소득탄력성 변동 요인을 분해한 결과, 국 제생산구조 변화와 글로벌 최종수요구조 변화 모두 소득탄력성 하락 요인 으로 작용하였으나 국제생산구조 변화의 영향이 상대적으로 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 국제생산구조 변화는 미국, 중국 등 주요국에서 교역유발 효과 가 낮은 서비스 중간투입 비중이 상승하는 방향으로 기술구조가 변화하는 가운데 중국에서 중간투입재 국산화가 지속적으로 진행된 데 주로 기인하 였다. 또한 글로벌 최종수요구조 변화는 글로벌 서비스 수요 증가, 최종재 에 대한 수입대체를 통해 우리 재화 수출의 소득탄력성을 낮추는 것으로 분석되었으며 신흥국 경제 비중 증가에 따른 부정적 영향은 나타나지 않았 다. 향후에도 글로벌 경제의 서비스 비중 상승, 글로벌 공급망 리스크 축소 등에 따른 자국 생산 제품으로의 수요 대체는 우리나라 재화 수출의 소득 탄력성을 낮춤으로써 글로벌 경기 회복 시에도 우리나라 수출 확대에 제약 요인으로 작용할 가능성이 있다 하겠다. English Abstract: This paper investigates the causes of decline in the elasticity of Korea’s goods exports with respect to global income in the post global financial crisis. Using international input-output tables from the years 2000 to 2019, I show that both the change in the international production structure and the change in the global final demand structure contributed to the decrease in the income elasticity, with the effect of the former relatively larger. The effect of the change in the international production structure on the income elasticity was driven by the steady localization of intermediate inputs in China, while the technological structure in countries such as the United States and China changed in higher input share of services which are low trade-inducing. In addition, the change in the global final demand structure was found to lower the income elasticity through increased service demand and substitution for imported goods. However, there were no negative effects from the increased share of emerging economies in global final demand. In the future, continuing expansion of service sectors in global economy and the localization of production to reduce global supply chain risks are likely to constrain the expansion of Korea’s exports even during a global economic recovery.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124907042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
English Abstract: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
{"title":"The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns: Evidence from Inter-Korea Geopolitics","authors":"Jongmin Lee, Seohyun Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3904489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3904489","url":null,"abstract":"English Abstract: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"55 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122522162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
English Abstract: Long-term interest rates show considerable reactions to macroeconomic and monetary policy news. It is, however, difficult to be explained by standard rational expectations macro-finance models widely used in policy analyses. In this research, we demonstrate that private’s subjective beliefs and central bank credibility can account for the excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates using an estimated macro-finance model which incorporates private’s subjective perceptions on future real activity and inflation and endogenously evolving central bank credibility. We find that long-term rates respond stronger to macro shocks and shifts in private's perceptions regarding expected real activity and inflation when credibility is lower. In addition, the model simulation shows that 10-year yield varies substantially more when credibility is low.
{"title":"The Excess Sensitivity of Long-term Interest rates and Central Bank Credibility","authors":"Kwangyong Park","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3749778","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3749778","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English Abstract:</b> Long-term interest rates show considerable reactions to macroeconomic and monetary policy news. It is, however, difficult to be explained by standard rational expectations macro-finance models widely used in policy analyses. In this research, we demonstrate that private’s subjective beliefs and central bank credibility can account for the excess sensitivity of long-term interest rates using an estimated macro-finance model which incorporates private’s subjective perceptions on future real activity and inflation and endogenously evolving central bank credibility. We find that long-term rates respond stronger to macro shocks and shifts in private's perceptions regarding expected real activity and inflation when credibility is lower. In addition, the model simulation shows that 10-year yield varies substantially more when credibility is low.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130413989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 본고는 1955~2018년중 북한의 투자시계열을 구축하고 영구재고법으로 자본스톡을 추계한 후 이를 통해 북한의 경제성장 요인을 살펴본 것이다. 자본스톡은 건설자산과 설비자산을 구분하여 추정하였다.
추정 결과 북한의 자본스톡은 1955년 이후 1989년까지 빠르게 증가하다 1990년대에 크게 감소하였으며 2000년대 이후 다시 회복되었다. 북한의 자본스톡은 2018년 현재 1989년보다 24% 높은 수준이고, GDP의 3.9배로 선진국에서 일반적으로 관측되는 3배 수준보다 많은 것으로 추정되었다. 2018년 현재 전체 자본스톡 가운데 설비자산이 8%에 불과하였는데 이는 남한의 1970~90년 평균 수준인 32%와 대비되는 모습이다.
성장회계 분석 결과 북한은 경제성장 초기에 외연적 성장을 달성하기도 하였으나 이후 총요소생산성 감소에 주로 기인하여 성장이 정체되거나 부진한 회복세를 보인 것으로 나타났다. 1990년대 경제위기를 겪었으며 2000년 이후에는 투입 증가율이 낮아진 가운데 생산성 부진이 지속되면서 저성장 기조가 유지되었다. 2017년 이후에는 제재 여파로 투입증가율이 더욱 낮아지고 생산성이 크게 감소하여 경제성장률이 급락하였다. 한편 빈곤의 덫과 유휴자본의 특징을 보인 북한의 1990년대 경제위기 이후는 레온티에프 생산함수에 기반한 해로드-도마 성장모형으로 해석해 볼 수 있다.
북한은 현재 자본재 금수조치로 성장여건이 크게 악화된 상황인 만큼 기업소와 농장의 소유구조 및 운영방식의 혁신을 통해 생산성과 효율성, 창의성을 증진하는 제도개선이 요구되고 있다. 또한 북한이 경제침체로부터 벗어나려면 인적 물적 자본 축적이 필수적인 만큼 선진국의 자본과 기술 도입을 위해 대외관계 개선 및 적극적 개방정책이 시급해 보인다.
본고의 추정에도 불구하고 개별자산의 역사적 축적과정과의 비교, 디플레이터 산출, 성장 추정에 사용되는 물량자료의 정확성 제고 등을 위한 노력이 계속되어야 한다. 특히 본고의 자본스톡 추정은 북한의 여타 거시통계의 추정 개선 작업과 연계된 만큼 아직 미완성의 잠정치로 이해되어야 한다.
English Abstract: This study aims to estimate the capital stock in North Korea from 1955 to 2018, based on the perpetual inventory method, and then to explain its economic growth. The capital stock is estimated by decomposing it into construction assets and equipment assets.
Estimates show that North Korea's capital stock increased rapidly from 1955 to 1989, then decreased significantly in the 1990s, and recovered since the 2000s. The capital stock estimate as of 2018 stands at 24% higher than that in 1989. The capital stock/GDP ratio as of 2018 is around 3.9 times, which is higher than 3.0, the ratio commonly observed in many advanced economies. The estimated share of equipment capital within total capital is only 8% as of 2018, which compares with the corresponding rate (32%) during the 1970-1990 period in South Korea.
Growth accounting analysis shows that North Korea achieved a rapid input-led growth in the early stages of economic growth, but has since shown stagnant or sluggish growth, due mainly to a drop in total factor productivity. It suffered from the economic crisis in the 1990s, and after 2000 the low growth pattern was maintained as productivity continued to remain sluggish amid a lower input growth rate. Since 2017, the economic growth rate has plummeted due to a further drop in the input growth rate and a significant drop in productivity in the wake of sanctions. We believe that the negative GDP growth rate during the so-called “Arduous March Period,” and the low growth seen in succeeding periods that has been characterized by idle capacity with a poverty trap, can be explained by a Harrod (1939)-Domar (1946) model based on the Leontief production function as outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995).
As North Korea's growth conditions have deteriorated significantly due to the embargo on capital goods, it is required to improve its s
Korean Abstract:本库在1955年至2018年期间建立北韩投资系列，通过永久库存法推算资本股票后，通过此分析了北韩经济增长的因素。资本股票是将建设资产和设备资产分开推定的。据推测，北韩的资本股票从1955年到1989年迅速增加，90年代大幅减少，2000年以后重新恢复。据推测，截至2018年，北韩的资本股票比1989年高出24%，达GDP的3.9倍，比发达国家普遍观测到的3倍还多。截至2018年，在所有资本股票中，设备资产仅占8%，这与韩国1970年至1990年的平均水平32%形成对比。增长会计分析结果显示，北韩在经济增长初期曾实现过外延增长，但此后因总要素生产性减少，增长停滞或呈现出萧条的恢复趋势。20世纪90年代经历了经济危机，2000年以后投入增加率有所下降，生产效率持续不振，从而维持了低增长基调。2017年以后，受制裁影响，投入增加率进一步下降，生产效率大幅下降，经济增长率暴跌。另外，表现出贫困陷阱和闲置资本特征的北韩90年代经济危机以后，可以解释为以莱昂蒂夫生产函数为基础的哈罗德-马马增长模型。北韩目前因资本货物禁运措施，增长条件大幅恶化，因此需要通过企业和农场的所有结构及运营方式的革新，改善提高生产效率和创意性的制度。另外，北韩要想摆脱经济停滞局面，必须积累人力、物力、资本，因此，为引进发达国家的资本和技术，急需改善对外关系并积极开放政策。虽然本库进行了推测，但应该继续为提高与个别资产的历史积累过程进行比较、计算平减指数、推测增长所使用的物量资料的准确性而努力。特别是，本库的资本股票推测与北韩其他宏观统计的推测改善工作相联系，因此应该理解为尚未完成的暂定政治。英语:This study aims to estimate the capital stock in North Korea from 1955 to 2018, based on the perpetual inventory method, and then to explain its economic growth。The capital stock is estimated by decomposing it into construction assets and equipment assets。Estimates show that North Korea's capital stock increased rapidly from 1955 to 1989, then decreased significantly in the 1990s, and recovered since the 2000s。The capital stock estimate as of 2018 stands at 24% higher than that in 1989。The capital stock/GDP ratio as of 2018 is around 3.9 times, which is higher than 3.0, The ratio commonly observed in many advanced economies。The estimated share of equipment capital within total capital is only 8% as of 2018, which compares with The corresponding rate (32%) during The 1970-1990 period in South Korea。Growth accounting analysis shows that North Korea achieved a rapid input-led Growth in the early stages of economic Growth, but has since shown stagnant or sluggish Growth;due mainly to a drop in total factor productivity。It suffered from the economic crisis in the 1990s, and after 2000 the low growth pattern was maintainued as productivity continued to remain sluggish amid a lower input growth rate。Since 2017, the economic growth rate has plummeted due to a further drop in the input growth rate and a significant drop in productivity in the wake of sanctions。我们believe that the negative GDP growth rate during the so-called " Arduous March Period "and the low growth seen in succeeding periods that has been characterized by idle capacity with a poverty trap;can be explained by a Harrod (1939)-Domar (1946) model based on the Leontief production function as outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin(1995)。As North Korea's growth conditions have deteriorated significantly due to the embargo on capital goods, it is required to improve its system that promotes productivity，efficiency and creativity through innovation in the ownership structure and management of farms and enterprises。More favorable foreign relations and an active opening policy are also necessary to attract foreign investment and technology，which is essential for human and physical capital accumulation and the resulting economic growth。Despite the estimates of this study, efforts should continue to be made to
{"title":"북한의 자본스톡 추정 및 시사점 (Estimating Capital Stock in North Korea and Its Implications)","authors":"H. Pyo, Minjung Kim","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3727104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3727104","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Korean Abstract:</b> 본고는 1955~2018년중 북한의 투자시계열을 구축하고 영구재고법으로 자본스톡을 추계한 후 이를 통해 북한의 경제성장 요인을 살펴본 것이다. 자본스톡은 건설자산과 설비자산을 구분하여 추정하였다.<br><br>추정 결과 북한의 자본스톡은 1955년 이후 1989년까지 빠르게 증가하다 1990년대에 크게 감소하였으며 2000년대 이후 다시 회복되었다. 북한의 자본스톡은 2018년 현재 1989년보다 24% 높은 수준이고, GDP의 3.9배로 선진국에서 일반적으로 관측되는 3배 수준보다 많은 것으로 추정되었다. 2018년 현재 전체 자본스톡 가운데 설비자산이 8%에 불과하였는데 이는 남한의 1970~90년 평균 수준인 32%와 대비되는 모습이다. <br><br>성장회계 분석 결과 북한은 경제성장 초기에 외연적 성장을 달성하기도 하였으나 이후 총요소생산성 감소에 주로 기인하여 성장이 정체되거나 부진한 회복세를 보인 것으로 나타났다. 1990년대 경제위기를 겪었으며 2000년 이후에는 투입 증가율이 낮아진 가운데 생산성 부진이 지속되면서 저성장 기조가 유지되었다. 2017년 이후에는 제재 여파로 투입증가율이 더욱 낮아지고 생산성이 크게 감소하여 경제성장률이 급락하였다. 한편 빈곤의 덫과 유휴자본의 특징을 보인 북한의 1990년대 경제위기 이후는 레온티에프 생산함수에 기반한 해로드-도마 성장모형으로 해석해 볼 수 있다. <br><br>북한은 현재 자본재 금수조치로 성장여건이 크게 악화된 상황인 만큼 기업소와 농장의 소유구조 및 운영방식의 혁신을 통해 생산성과 효율성, 창의성을 증진하는 제도개선이 요구되고 있다. 또한 북한이 경제침체로부터 벗어나려면 인적 물적 자본 축적이 필수적인 만큼 선진국의 자본과 기술 도입을 위해 대외관계 개선 및 적극적 개방정책이 시급해 보인다.<br><br>본고의 추정에도 불구하고 개별자산의 역사적 축적과정과의 비교, 디플레이터 산출, 성장 추정에 사용되는 물량자료의 정확성 제고 등을 위한 노력이 계속되어야 한다. 특히 본고의 자본스톡 추정은 북한의 여타 거시통계의 추정 개선 작업과 연계된 만큼 아직 미완성의 잠정치로 이해되어야 한다.<br><br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> This study aims to estimate the capital stock in North Korea from 1955 to 2018, based on the perpetual inventory method, and then to explain its economic growth. The capital stock is estimated by decomposing it into construction assets and equipment assets.<br><br>Estimates show that North Korea's capital stock increased rapidly from 1955 to 1989, then decreased significantly in the 1990s, and recovered since the 2000s. The capital stock estimate as of 2018 stands at 24% higher than that in 1989. The capital stock/GDP ratio as of 2018 is around 3.9 times, which is higher than 3.0, the ratio commonly observed in many advanced economies. The estimated share of equipment capital within total capital is only 8% as of 2018, which compares with the corresponding rate (32%) during the 1970-1990 period in South Korea. <br><br>Growth accounting analysis shows that North Korea achieved a rapid input-led growth in the early stages of economic growth, but has since shown stagnant or sluggish growth, due mainly to a drop in total factor productivity. It suffered from the economic crisis in the 1990s, and after 2000 the low growth pattern was maintained as productivity continued to remain sluggish amid a lower input growth rate. Since 2017, the economic growth rate has plummeted due to a further drop in the input growth rate and a significant drop in productivity in the wake of sanctions. We believe that the negative GDP growth rate during the so-called “Arduous March Period,” and the low growth seen in succeeding periods that has been characterized by idle capacity with a poverty trap, can be explained by a Harrod (1939)-Domar (1946) model based on the Leontief production function as outlined in Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995). <br><br>As North Korea's growth conditions have deteriorated significantly due to the embargo on capital goods, it is required to improve its s","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124941664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We explore how credit market frictions matter for the coessentiality of money and credit. There are high-productivity and low-productivity borrowers. Limited commitment can yield a one-for-one credit limit in accordance with a borrower's productivity. An adverse selection problem caused by asymmetric information, however, makes lenders impose the credit limit of a low-productivity borrower on a high-productivity borrower. If productivities differ su fficiently between borrowers, a high-productivity borrower is credit-constrained and is willing to hold money to compensate for the deficiency of her credit limit, but a low-productivity borrower is not. This eventually implies the coessentiality of money and credit in the sense that the use of both improves the allocation from a social welfare perspective.
{"title":"Credit Market Frictions and Coessentiality of Money and Credit","authors":"Ohik Kwon, Man-jong Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3725288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3725288","url":null,"abstract":"We explore how credit market frictions matter for the coessentiality of money and credit. There are high-productivity and low-productivity borrowers. Limited commitment can yield a one-for-one credit limit in accordance with a borrower's productivity. An adverse selection problem caused by asymmetric information, however, makes lenders impose the credit limit of a low-productivity borrower on a high-productivity borrower. If productivities differ su fficiently between borrowers, a high-productivity borrower is credit-constrained and is willing to hold money to compensate for the deficiency of her credit limit, but a low-productivity borrower is not. This eventually implies the coessentiality of money and credit in the sense that the use of both improves the allocation from a social welfare perspective.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116739505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 2000~2017년 중의 통계청 광업제조업조사를 이용하여 제조업 부문에서의 수출과 총요소생산성 간 관계를 실증분석하였다. 분석결과, 수출과 생산성 간에는 양의 상관관계가 존재하는 것으로 추정되었는데, 이러한 관계는 수출과 생산성이 동반 증가하는 효과보다는 수출과 생산성이 동반 감소하는 효과와 더 밀접한 관련을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 분석결과에서는 수출 변화가 특정 집단의 생산성 분포에도 영향을 주는 것으로 추정되었는데, 특히 법인사업체와 생산성이 높은 집단이 수출 증가율 하락에 더 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 수출 증가율이 하락하는 경우에 생산성이 둔화될 수 있는 경로의 하나로 요소투입의 비가역성에 주목하였다. 산출량이 감소할 때 생산에 투입되는 요소가 유연하게 조정되지 않음으로써 요소투입의 비탄력성이 나타나는 업종에서는 수출 증가율이 하락할 때 생산성이 더 크게 둔화되는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 2010년대에 나타난 수출 부진과 생산성 둔화가 상호밀접한 관계가 있음을 실증적으로 밝혔다는 점에서 의의를 가진다. English Abstract: The Korean economy experienced a slowdown in both productivity growth and exports in the 2010s. Here we analyze the relationship between changes in exports and in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP). Our empirical analysis of data from the Mine and Manufacturing Survey (2000-2017) shows that there is a positive correlation between exports and productivity. We find that the positive correlation was stronger during periods in which exports decreased. We find that while the decrease in exports may have slowed or reduced the growth in productivity, the increase in exports did not necessarily increase productivity since 2000. In addition, we also find that changes in exports may affect the distribution of more productive producers, which are more likely to be affected by the decline in exports. We focus on the irreversibility of inputs as a possible explanation of the asymmetric relationship between exports and productivity growth. Our results show that in the input-inelastic sectors in which inputs are not flexibly adjusted, productivity declined further as export growth decreased.
Korean Abstract:本研究利用统计厅2000 - 2017年矿业制造业调查，对制造业部门的出口和总要素生产率之间的关系进行了实证分析。分析结果显示，出口和生产效率之间存在正相关关系，这种关系与出口和生产效率同时增加的效果相比，与出口和生产效率同时减少的效果有着更密切的关系。另外，分析结果还推测出口变化会对特定集团的生产效率分布产生影响，特别是法人企业和生产效率高的集团对出口增长率下降的反应更加敏感。本研究将要素投入的不可逆性作为出口增长率下降时生产效率下降的途径之一予以关注。在产量减少时，投入生产的因素没有得到灵活调整，出现要素投入非弹性的行业，在出口增加率下降时，生产率更趋钝化。本研究通过实证证明了2010年出现的出口不振和生产效率下降有着密切的关系，因此具有重大意义。英语Abstract: The Korean economy experienced a slowdown in both productivity growth and exports in The 2010s。Here we analyze the relationship between changes in exports and in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP)。Our empirical analysis of data from the Mine and Manufacturing Survey (2000-2017) shows that there is a positive correlation between exports and productivity。We find that the positive correlation was stronger during periods in which exports decreased。We find that while the decrease in exports may have slowed or reduced the growth in productivity, the increase in exports did not necessarily increase productivity since 2000。In addition, we also find that changes In exports may affect the distribution of more productive producers, which are more likely to be affected by the decline In exports。We focus on the irreversibility of inputs as a possible explanation of the asymmetric relationship between exports and productivity growth。Our results show that in the input-inelastic sectors in which inputs are not flexibly adjusted, productivity declined further as export growth decreased。
{"title":"제조업의 수출과 생산성 간 관계 분석: 사업체 자료 이용 (Export and Productivity: An Analysis of Plant-level Data)","authors":"Yoon-Soo Lee, Jin Ho Park","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3685550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3685550","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 2000~2017년 중의 통계청 광업제조업조사를 이용하여 제조업 부문에서의 수출과 총요소생산성 간 관계를 실증분석하였다. 분석결과, 수출과 생산성 간에는 양의 상관관계가 존재하는 것으로 추정되었는데, 이러한 관계는 수출과 생산성이 동반 증가하는 효과보다는 수출과 생산성이 동반 감소하는 효과와 더 밀접한 관련을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 분석결과에서는 수출 변화가 특정 집단의 생산성 분포에도 영향을 주는 것으로 추정되었는데, 특히 법인사업체와 생산성이 높은 집단이 수출 증가율 하락에 더 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서는 수출 증가율이 하락하는 경우에 생산성이 둔화될 수 있는 경로의 하나로 요소투입의 비가역성에 주목하였다. 산출량이 감소할 때 생산에 투입되는 요소가 유연하게 조정되지 않음으로써 요소투입의 비탄력성이 나타나는 업종에서는 수출 증가율이 하락할 때 생산성이 더 크게 둔화되는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 2010년대에 나타난 수출 부진과 생산성 둔화가 상호밀접한 관계가 있음을 실증적으로 밝혔다는 점에서 의의를 가진다. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: The Korean economy experienced a slowdown in both productivity growth and exports in the 2010s. Here we analyze the relationship between changes in exports and in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP). Our empirical analysis of data from the Mine and Manufacturing Survey (2000-2017) shows that there is a positive correlation between exports and productivity. We find that the positive correlation was stronger during periods in which exports decreased. We find that while the decrease in exports may have slowed or reduced the growth in productivity, the increase in exports did not necessarily increase productivity since 2000. In addition, we also find that changes in exports may affect the distribution of more productive producers, which are more likely to be affected by the decline in exports. We focus on the irreversibility of inputs as a possible explanation of the asymmetric relationship between exports and productivity growth. Our results show that in the input-inelastic sectors in which inputs are not flexibly adjusted, productivity declined further as export growth decreased.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114994732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hasan Isomitdinov, Vladimir Arčabić, Junsoo Lee, Youngjin Yun
English Abstract: This paper provides evidence of significant international co-movements of public debt in the form of the common global and regional factors. International events such as the global financial crisis and regional sovereign debt crises suggest the existence of global and regional factors that can generate synchronizations of public debt across different countries. In contrast with previous studies that are focused mostly on domestic economic fundamentals in explaining public debt, this paper finds distinct global factors in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, both from principal components analysis and the Bayesian dynamic factor model. We show that the global factor accounts for a significant fraction of the variation of public debt often more substantial than those explained by domestic variables in many countries. We also find significant regional factors in public debt, especially for the Eurozone member states.
{"title":"International Co-Movements and Determinants of Public Debt","authors":"Hasan Isomitdinov, Vladimir Arčabić, Junsoo Lee, Youngjin Yun","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3640087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3640087","url":null,"abstract":"<b>English Abstract:</b> This paper provides evidence of significant international co-movements of public debt in the form of the common global and regional factors. International events such as the global financial crisis and regional sovereign debt crises suggest the existence of global and regional factors that can generate synchronizations of public debt across different countries. In contrast with previous studies that are focused mostly on domestic economic fundamentals in explaining public debt, this paper finds distinct global factors in the public debt-to-GDP ratio, both from principal components analysis and the Bayesian dynamic factor model. We show that the global factor accounts for a significant fraction of the variation of public debt often more substantial than those explained by domestic variables in many countries. We also find significant regional factors in public debt, especially for the Eurozone member states.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123381786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 산업구조조정과 관련하여 나타나는 산업구조의 변화가 한국 경제의 고용 및 성장에 미치는 영향을 탐구하고자 한다. Lilien (1982)의 부문 이동가설에 의하면 산업구조의 변화는 노동시장에서 마찰적 실업을 발생하고 실업을 증가시키는 주요 요인이다. 그런데 마찰적 실업은 동시에 경기상황에 의해 영향을 받을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 산업구조조정이 고용에 미치는 효과를 경기변동과의 의존성을 고려하여 살펴보았다. 그리고 산업구조조정이 GDP 증가에 긍정적이라고 보는 Kuznets 가설과 이에 대립되는 Baumol 효과를 분석함으로써 산업구조조정이 경제 성장에 미치는 영향에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 우리나라의 경제활동조사, 사업체노동력조사, 그리고 거시경제자료를 사용하여 실시한 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 산업구조의 변화가 실업을 증가시키는 단기적 효과가 있으며 경기 수축 국면에서 구조조정의 효과가 더욱 크게 나타나서 우리나라의 경우에는 Lilien의 부문 이동가설이 실증적으로 유효한 것으로 판단되었다. 둘째, 산업구조조정은 구직과 구인(또는 실업과 빈 일자리)의 관계를 나타내는 베버리지 곡선을 이동시킴으로써 일자리 매칭의 효율성을 감소시키는 결과를 보였다. 특히, 경기변동에 따라 수축 국면에서 매칭 비효율성이 더욱 크게 나타났다. 셋째, 산업구조의 변화가 GDP 성장에 미치는 중장기적 효과가 유의하게 나타났으며 산업구조조정과 함께 자원의 재배치가 이루어지는데 생산성이 높은 부문으로 자원의 재배치가 이루어지면서 GDP 성장을 제고시킴으로써 Kuznets 가설에 부합하는 결과를 얻었다. 이러한 결과를 감안할 때, 4차 산업혁명을 견인할 수 있는 신산업중심으 로 빠르게 산업구조를 재편하는 정책을 추진할 경우 자원의 효율적 배분, 기술혁신 등을 통해 우리 경제의 성장세를 높이는 데 도움이 될 수 있을 것 으로 생각된다. 다만 이러한 산업구조조정 과정에서 단기적으로 유발되는 고용감소에 따른 충격을 완화하기 위해 노동의 유연‧안전성과 일자리 매 칭 효율성 증대 등의 정책을 모색할 필요성이 큰 것으로 판단된다. English Abstract: In this research, we explored the effects of changes in industrial structure due to industrial restructuring on employment and growth in the Korean economy. To that end, we first checked the impact of industrial restructuring on employment through Lilien’s sectoral shift hypothesis, considering the dependence of industrial restructuring on business cycles. As a result of the analysis, it was found that changes in the industrial structure had a short-term effect of increasing unemployment, and that the effects of industrial restructuring were even greater during the economic downturn. In light of these points, Lilien’s sectoral shift hypothesis seems to be valid in Korea. Next, we examined the effect of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Korea by analyzing which one between Kuznetz hypothesis and Baumol effect is dominant. As a result of this analysis, the medium- to long-term effects of changes in the industrial structure on the GDP growth rate were revealed to be significant. This shows that Kuznetz hypothesis that the growth rate will improve as the efficiency of resource allocation through industrial restructuring increases holds good in case of the Korean economy.
Korean Abstract:本研究将探讨与产业结构调整相关的产业结构变化对韩国经济的雇佣及增长产生的影响。根据Lilien(1982)的部门移动假设，产业结构的变化是劳动市场上发生摩擦性失业，增加失业的主要因素。但是，摩擦性失业同时也会受到经济状况的影响。本研究考虑了产业结构调整对雇佣产生的效果与经济变动的依赖性。通过分析认为产业结构调整对GDP增长有积极影响的Kuznets假说和与之相对的Baumol效果，还观察了产业结构调整对经济增长的影响。利用我国的经济活动调查、企业劳动力调查以及宏观经济资料实施的分析结果如下。第一，产业结构的变化具有增加失业的短期效果，在经济萎缩的局面下，结构调整的效果更大，在我国，Lilien的部门移动假设被判断为实证有效。第二，产业结构调整移动了体现求职和招聘(或失业和空工作岗位)关系的“贝弗里奇曲线”，从而降低了工作岗位配对的效率性。特别是，随着经济的变动，在萎缩局面中对配效率更大。第三,产业结构的变化对gdp增长的中长期效果留意地出现了,产业结构调整和资源的重新部署,生产率高的部门,形成资源的重新部署,形成提高gdp增长,使符合kuznets假说得到了。考虑到这样的结果，如果推进以能够带动第四次产业革命的新产业为中心迅速重组产业结构的政策，可以通过资源的有效分配、技术革新等，有助于提高韩国经济的增长势头。但据判断，在产业结构调整过程中，为缓解短期内雇用减少带来的冲击，有必要探索提高劳动灵活性、安全性和工作岗位分配效率等政策。English Abstract: In this research, we explored of changes In industrial structure due to industrial restructuring on employment and growth In the Korean economy。To that end, we first checked the impact of industrial restructuring on employment through Lilien ' s sectoral shift hypothis;considering the dependence of industrial restructuring on business cyclesa result of the analysis, it was found that changes in the industrial structure had a short-term effect of increasing unemployment;and that the effects of industrial restructuring were even greater during the economic downturn。In light of these points, Lilien ' s sectoral shift hypothesis seems to be valid In Korea。Next，我们examined the effect of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Korea by analyzing which one between Kuznetz hypothesis and Baumol effect is dominant。As a result of this analysis, the medium- to long-term effects of changes in the industrial structure on the GDP growth rate were revealed to be significant。This shows that Kuznetz hypothesis that the growth rate will improve as the efficiency of resource allocation through industrial restructuring increases holds good in case of the Korean economy。
{"title":"산업구조조정이 고용 및 성장에 미치는 영향 (The Effects of Industrial Restructuring on Employment and Growth)","authors":"Byeong-Hun Seo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3633617","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3633617","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 산업구조조정과 관련하여 나타나는 산업구조의 변화가 한국 경제의 고용 및 성장에 미치는 영향을 탐구하고자 한다. Lilien (1982)의 부문 이동가설에 의하면 산업구조의 변화는 노동시장에서 마찰적 실업을 발생하고 실업을 증가시키는 주요 요인이다. 그런데 마찰적 실업은 동시에 경기상황에 의해 영향을 받을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 산업구조조정이 고용에 미치는 효과를 경기변동과의 의존성을 고려하여 살펴보았다. 그리고 산업구조조정이 GDP 증가에 긍정적이라고 보는 Kuznets 가설과 이에 대립되는 Baumol 효과를 분석함으로써 산업구조조정이 경제 성장에 미치는 영향에 대해서도 살펴보았다. 우리나라의 경제활동조사, 사업체노동력조사, 그리고 거시경제자료를 사용하여 실시한 분석결과는 다음과 같다. \u0000 \u0000첫째, 산업구조의 변화가 실업을 증가시키는 단기적 효과가 있으며 경기 수축 국면에서 구조조정의 효과가 더욱 크게 나타나서 우리나라의 경우에는 Lilien의 부문 이동가설이 실증적으로 유효한 것으로 판단되었다. 둘째, 산업구조조정은 구직과 구인(또는 실업과 빈 일자리)의 관계를 나타내는 베버리지 곡선을 이동시킴으로써 일자리 매칭의 효율성을 감소시키는 결과를 보였다. 특히, 경기변동에 따라 수축 국면에서 매칭 비효율성이 더욱 크게 나타났다. 셋째, 산업구조의 변화가 GDP 성장에 미치는 중장기적 효과가 유의하게 나타났으며 산업구조조정과 함께 자원의 재배치가 이루어지는데 생산성이 높은 부문으로 자원의 재배치가 이루어지면서 GDP 성장을 제고시킴으로써 Kuznets 가설에 부합하는 결과를 얻었다. \u0000 \u0000이러한 결과를 감안할 때, 4차 산업혁명을 견인할 수 있는 신산업중심으 로 빠르게 산업구조를 재편하는 정책을 추진할 경우 자원의 효율적 배분, 기술혁신 등을 통해 우리 경제의 성장세를 높이는 데 도움이 될 수 있을 것 으로 생각된다. 다만 이러한 산업구조조정 과정에서 단기적으로 유발되는 고용감소에 따른 충격을 완화하기 위해 노동의 유연‧안전성과 일자리 매 칭 효율성 증대 등의 정책을 모색할 필요성이 큰 것으로 판단된다. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: In this research, we explored the effects of changes in industrial structure due to industrial restructuring on employment and growth in the Korean economy. To that end, we first checked the impact of industrial restructuring on employment through Lilien’s sectoral shift hypothesis, considering the dependence of industrial restructuring on business cycles. As a result of the analysis, it was found that changes in the industrial structure had a short-term effect of increasing unemployment, and that the effects of industrial restructuring were even greater during the economic downturn. In light of these points, Lilien’s sectoral shift hypothesis seems to be valid in Korea. Next, we examined the effect of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Korea by analyzing which one between Kuznetz hypothesis and Baumol effect is dominant. As a result of this analysis, the medium- to long-term effects of changes in the industrial structure on the GDP growth rate were revealed to be significant. This shows that Kuznetz hypothesis that the growth rate will improve as the efficiency of resource allocation through industrial restructuring increases holds good in case of the Korean economy.","PeriodicalId":251645,"journal":{"name":"Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute Research Paper Series","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122708453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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