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Scenario approach to the assessment of development prospects of the Russian regions 采用情景法评估俄罗斯各地区的发展前景
Pub Date : 2022-05-26 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-81-91
N. Mikheeva
The article describes the features of building and assessment of spatial development scenarios in long-term forecasts. The author used the scenario approach for qualitative and quantitative assessment of alternative strategies for regional development within the framework of the macroeconomic forecast for the development of the Russian economy. Further, the author analyzed the experience of developing spatial scenarios for the EU countries and Russia. Next, the longterm regional trends are presented, which, due to the high inertia of space, will determine spatial development in the future. The author also describes modern problems that significantly impact the choice of strategies for the regions. Prospects for spatial development the author assessed in the framework of three forecast scenarios. For two options of the macroeconomic forecast, the author calculated quantitative estimates of the spatial development parameters characterizing the scenarios. Relevant calculations the author performed using macroeconomic and interregional forecasting and analytical models. Finally, the author showed the advantages of the scenario of balanced growth from the standpoint of implementing national goals of social and economic development.
本文阐述了长期预测中空间发展情景的构建和评估的特点。作者在俄罗斯经济发展的宏观经济预测框架内,使用情景方法对区域发展备选战略进行定性和定量评估。在此基础上,分析了欧盟国家和俄罗斯空间情景发展的经验。其次,提出了区域的长期趋势,由于空间的高度惯性,这将决定未来的空间发展。作者还描述了显著影响区域战略选择的现代问题。在三种预测情景框架下对空间发展前景进行了评估。对于两种宏观经济预测方案,作者计算了表征情景的空间发展参数的定量估计值。作者使用宏观经济和区域间预测和分析模型进行了相关计算。最后,从实现国家经济社会发展目标的角度,分析了平衡增长情景的优势。
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引用次数: 1
The Possibility of Identifying Alpha-Companies by Statistical Methods on the Example of the ExpressLogistics Market In Russia 用统计方法识别阿尔法公司的可能性——以俄罗斯快递物流市场为例
Pub Date : 2022-05-26 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-73-80
V. Vertogradov
The article attempts to evaluate the use of the conventional statistical apparatus to identify alpha companies in the Russian express logistics market. According to the theory of economic dominance, Alpha-companies occupy dominant positions in industry markets due to access to the cheapest resources and institutional advantages that allow them to build barriers to other players. Identification of such companies has traditionally been carried out by an expert method, including based on insider information, not available to external market players. The author describes the traditional tools used to identify the dominant market players [concentration indices (CR), Lind (L) and Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI)], made calculations based on official statistics, data from open ratings and other available benchmarks for the express delivery industry in Russia, as well as a comparison with the results of determining alpha companies by an expert method. The author formulated hypotheses to explain the reasons for situations when companies with dominant capabilities are not interested in realizing their potential in a small market. Additionally, the author used some assumptions about the role of institutions regulating the market in case of sharp changes in market conditions.
本文试图利用传统的统计仪器来评估俄罗斯快递物流市场中的阿尔法公司。根据经济支配理论,阿尔法公司在行业市场中占据支配地位,因为它们可以获得最便宜的资源和制度优势,使它们能够对其他参与者建立障碍。这些公司的识别传统上是通过专家方法进行的,包括基于外部市场参与者无法获得的内幕信息。作者描述了用于识别主导市场参与者的传统工具[集中度指数(CR), Lind (L)和Herfindahl-Hirschman (HHI)],根据官方统计数据,公开评级数据和俄罗斯快递行业其他可用基准进行计算,并与专家方法确定alpha公司的结果进行了比较。作者提出假设来解释具有优势能力的公司在小市场中不愿意发挥其潜力的原因。此外,作者还对市场条件急剧变化时机构调节市场的作用作了一些假设。
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引用次数: 0
Integral System of Assessment Indexes of the MilitaryIndustrial Complex Enterprises’ Innovative Potential 军工综合体企业创新潜力综合评价指标体系
Pub Date : 2022-05-26 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-92-104
L. Kupriyanova, Ju. N. Sinkova
The aim of this article is a presentation of the methodologies used in the assessment of the innovative potential of the military-industrial complex enterprises. They are based on the integrated index. We achieved this purpose by listing the showings of the innovative potential assessment of the military-industrial complex enterprises, describing methods of their calculation, and reducing them to the consolidated tool. The academic novelty of our study comes down to studying the modern methodologies of the innovative potential assessment based on the integrated index and creating it for the military-industrial complex enterprises. The study results are as follows — integrated methodologies of the innovative potential assessment of the military-industrial complex enterprises and creation of the author’s methodology of the innovative potential assessment of the military-industrial complex enterprises based on the innovative potential assessment of the military-industrial complex enterprises.
本文的目的是介绍在评估军事工业综合企业的创新潜力时所使用的方法。它们是基于综合指数的。我们通过列出军工综合体企业创新潜力评估的表现,描述其计算方法,并将其简化为综合工具,实现了这一目的。本文研究的学术新颖性在于研究了基于综合指标的军工综合体企业创新潜力评价的现代方法,并将其应用于军工综合体企业。研究结果如下:综合军工综合体企业创新潜力评价方法,并在军工综合体企业创新潜力评价的基础上创建了笔者的军工综合体企业创新潜力评价方法。
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引用次数: 0
The Architecture of Labour Relations in Socio-Economic Ecosystems 社会经济生态系统中的劳动关系架构
Pub Date : 2022-05-26 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-62-72
R. Khabibullin
The article presents a conceptual approach to the formation and development of labour relations in the context of socio-economic systems. The author shows that ecosystems as integrated organizational and economic structures, which developed intra-industry and inter-industry cooperative ties characterize functioning, consisting mainly of intelligent firms. In this regard, ecosystem management should be carried out not by directive methods, as in traditional business structures, but based on participatory governance and self-government principles, which also affects the specifics of human resource management. The author formulated the top-priority management tasks in the field of increasing the intellectual potential of ecosystem workers and methods for increasing the loyalty and involvement of personnel and highlighted the problems of labour relations arising in the conditions of ecosystem employment.
本文提出了在社会经济制度背景下劳动关系形成和发展的概念方法。生态系统是一种综合的组织和经济结构,具有产业内和产业间合作关系的特征,主要由智能企业组成。在这方面,生态系统管理不应像传统商业结构那样采用指导性方法,而应以参与性治理和自治原则为基础,这也影响到人力资源管理的具体情况。作者制定了提高生态系统工作人员智力潜力领域的首要管理任务,以及提高人员忠诚度和参与度的方法,并强调了在生态系统就业条件下出现的劳资关系问题。
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引用次数: 0
Business Processes Modelling of Crowdinvesting Platforms Based on Assets’ Tokenization 基于资产代币化的众投平台业务流程建模
Pub Date : 2022-05-25 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-45-61
E. Popov, A. Veretennikova, S. Fedoreev
The rapid development of digital platforms, the formation of new business models of interaction between the economics agents, as well as the problem of increasing the efficiency of resources have generated the need to develop new approaches to the exchange of resources using modern digitalization opportunities. The purpose of our study is to develop models of business processes for the exchange of financial resources on crowdinvesting platforms using tokenization. The research subject is the economic relations between transactions on crowdinvesting platforms participants. The authors proposed a typology of business processes of crowdinvesting platforms, taking into account the type of transaction scenario (credit (closed) and speculative (opened)), which allows grouping the processes of exchange of financial assets allocated by the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance. In addition, traditional models of financial assets exchange on a crowdinvesting platform are described. We proposed models of the exchange of financial assets on a crowdinvesting platform considering the tokenization process. Also, we substantiated that the tokenization will significantly increase the liquidity of over-the-counter securities, shares of non-public joint-stock companies, investments in real estate construction projects. The theoretical significance of the results obtained lies in expanding the theoretical and methodological basis for the development of the sharing economy in the financial area. The practical relevance of the proposed model is in the possibility of its application in improving the processes of exchanging financial resources on crowdinvesting platforms.
数字平台的快速发展,经济主体之间互动的新商业模式的形成,以及提高资源效率的问题,都需要开发利用现代数字化机会进行资源交换的新方法。我们研究的目的是开发使用代币化的众投平台上金融资源交换的业务流程模型。研究对象是众筹平台上交易参与者之间的经济关系。作者提出了一个众筹平台业务流程的类型学,考虑到交易场景的类型(信贷(封闭)和投机(开放)),它允许对剑桥替代金融中心分配的金融资产交换过程进行分组。此外,对众投平台金融资产交换的传统模式进行了描述。我们提出了考虑代币化过程的众投平台金融资产交换模型。此外,我们证实了代币化将显著增加场外证券、非上市股份公司股票、房地产建设项目投资的流动性。所得结果的理论意义在于拓展了共享经济在金融领域发展的理论和方法基础。所提出的模型的实际意义在于,它有可能应用于改善众筹平台上的金融资源交换过程。
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引用次数: 1
Visual Experiment Results (About the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences) 视觉实验结果(关于2021年诺贝尔经济学奖)
Pub Date : 2022-05-25 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-6-16
Y. Voronov
The article is devoted to analysing the achievements of the laureates of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2021. The author described the methods of natural experiment used by the laureates in their research. Further, the author noted the differences between different types of experiments: laboratory, field, computer and mental (thought, imaginary). The author described details of two of their studies (which have become classic) on the consequences for the labour market of the influx of immigrants and the increase in the minimum wage. The methods and results of the laureates’ research on assessing the consequences of state programs and structural decisions are also analysed. In conclusion, the author considered new experimental and econometric research methods, which the laureates have significantly improved. In particular, it concerns the method of counter samples and an example from the author’s research using this method.
本文将分析2021年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的成就。作者介绍了获奖者在研究中使用的自然实验方法。此外,作者注意到不同类型的实验之间的差异:实验室,现场,计算机和心理(思想,想象)。提交人详细介绍了他们关于移民涌入和提高最低工资对劳动力市场的影响的两项研究(已成为经典)。本文还分析了获奖者在评估国家计划和结构性决策后果方面的研究方法和结果。综上所述,作者考虑了新的实验和计量经济学研究方法,这些方法都得到了获奖者的显著改进。特别介绍了反样本法,并给出了笔者使用该方法进行研究的一个实例。
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引用次数: 0
On Achieving Strategic Goals and Ensuring the Security of Modern Russia 论实现战略目标与保障现代俄罗斯安全
Pub Date : 2022-05-25 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-17-27
S. V. Kazantsev
The strategic objectives of the subject (a person, a group of individuals, an estate, a class, a nation, a community, a state, groups of states, a society) are determined mainly by the conditions in which the subject is located. It includes its specifications (including traditions, worldview, level of development, and available knowledge) by its capabilities and opportunities. Changing even one of the listed factors can cause a change in goals. The paper presents the results of a study of the movement towards achieving vital goals that society sets for the long term: society’s strategic goals. The goal of society in this study the author understood as a specific image (representation) of the result formed by society, which it strives to achieve. The author assessed the speed and nature of the movement towards achieving the constituent components of the strategic goals of the Russian Federation — preserving the nation and increasing the economic power of the country. Statistical data of the World Bank and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation from 1992 to 2020 served as initial information for calculations. The calculations performed showed that the movement towards achieving the set goals was of an oscillatory nature, and the amplitude of fluctuations in time tended to decrease. The latter indicates a slowdown in the speed of approaching the set goals.
主体(一个人、一群人、一个阶层、一个阶级、一个民族、一个社区、一个国家、一个国家集团、一个社会)的战略目标主要由主体所处的条件决定。它通过它的能力和机会包括它的规范(包括传统、世界观、发展水平和可用的知识)。即使改变其中的一个因素也会导致目标的改变。本文介绍了一项关于实现社会为长期设定的重要目标的运动的研究结果:社会的战略目标。在本研究中,作者将社会的目标理解为社会所形成的结果的具体形象(表征),并力求达到这种结果。作者评估了实现俄罗斯联邦战略目标的组成部分- -保护民族和增强国家经济实力- -的运动的速度和性质。1992年至2020年世界银行和俄罗斯联邦国家统计局的统计数据作为计算的初始资料。所进行的计算表明,实现既定目标的运动具有振荡性质,时间波动的幅度趋于减小。后者表明实现既定目标的速度有所放缓。
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引用次数: 0
Fintech as Accelerating Factor of Inclusive, Sustainable Development 金融科技:包容性、可持续发展的加速因素
Pub Date : 2022-05-25 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2022-16-1-28-44
A. Lopukhin, E. Plaksenkov, S. Silvestrov
This article focuses on the impact of the financial sector on inclusive, sustainable development. The paper aims to study the impact of the fintech industry and financial inclusion on the development of the financial system to achieve the UN SDGs. We discussed various approaches to the content of the “fintech” and “ecosystem” terms and offered an interpretation of the term “financial inclusion”. We used comparative and system analysis methods to study the publications of many authors who found that a developed and inclusive financial system affects the reduction of poverty and inequality, welfare and employment, consumer market, economic growth, sustainable development, etc. At the same time, we showed variants of the relationship between increased access to financial services and financial stability, which can both be positive and negative. The state of the financial services market in Russia, which ranks high in various ratings in terms of financial inclusion, is described in detail. Further, we considered the barriers to the growth of financial inclusion in Russia and ways to overcome them. The practical significance of the work lies in the possibility of its use in the development of key areas of financial market development. Next, more attention needs to be paid to regulatory influences on consumer behaviour in selecting services and their providers.
本文重点讨论金融部门对包容性、可持续发展的影响。本文旨在研究金融科技产业和普惠金融对金融体系发展的影响,以实现联合国可持续发展目标。我们讨论了对“金融科技”和“生态系统”术语内容的各种理解,并对“普惠金融”一词进行了解释。我们采用比较和系统分析的方法研究了许多作者的出版物,他们发现发达和包容性的金融体系对减少贫困和不平等、福利和就业、消费市场、经济增长、可持续发展等方面都有影响。与此同时,我们展示了增加金融服务可及性与金融稳定之间的各种关系,这种关系可能是积极的,也可能是消极的。详细描述了俄罗斯金融服务市场的状况,俄罗斯在金融包容性方面的各种评级中排名很高。此外,我们还考虑了俄罗斯普惠金融发展的障碍以及克服这些障碍的方法。该工作的现实意义在于其在金融市场发展的关键领域的发展中应用的可能性。其次,需要更多地注意监管对消费者选择服务及其提供者行为的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Factors of High-tech Industries Growth: A Case Study of the Late USSR 高技术产业成长因素分析——以苏联后期为例
Pub Date : 2022-01-29 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2021-15-4-58-73
D. Didenko, N. Grineva
Explanation of the role high-tech industries play in ensuring sustainable economic growth is significant in the contemporary environment. Also, it is relevant in theoretical discourses of modernization, neo-industrialization, and industrial policy that are similar in their structure. The purpose of the study is to assess the factors of dynamics of the most high-tech industries and the entire Soviet industry when having faced economic growth slowdown, with emphasis on institutional and technological components. The key hypothesis is that in the high-tech industries in the 1960s and 1980s, the institutional environment appeared to be a more significant factor than the technological level. The variety of the sources utilized includes calculations and estimates from the research literature and selected indicators from the official statistics. The econometric analysis of the data is based on an exogenous growth model in the form of the Cobb- Douglas production function, augmented with human capital in Mankiw, Romer, Weil (1992), modified in Didenko, Grineva (2020) by introducing variables that proxy for institutional and general technological dynamics. In this paper, we test it using lagged variables in per capita and rate-of-change terms. The marginal rate of technical substitution of physical by human capital, measured in such a way and indicating the flexibility of management of factors of production, exposed a stable level both in the entire industry of the USSR and its high-tech branches. At the same time, our key hypothesis found weak support.
解释高科技产业在确保可持续经济增长中的作用在当代环境中是重要的。在结构相似的现代化、新工业化、产业政策等理论话语中,也具有一定的相关性。这项研究的目的是评估在面临经济增长放缓时最高科技工业和整个苏联工业的动态因素,重点是体制和技术组成部分。关键假设是,在20世纪60年代和80年代的高技术产业中,制度环境似乎是比技术水平更重要的因素。所使用的各种来源包括来自研究文献的计算和估计以及来自官方统计的选定指标。数据的计量经济学分析基于Cobb- Douglas生产函数形式的外生增长模型,在Mankiw, Romer, Weil(1992)中增加了人力资本,在Didenko, Grineva(2020)中通过引入代表制度和一般技术动态的变量进行了修改。在本文中,我们使用人均和变化率方面的滞后变量来检验它。人力资本对实物的技术替代的边际率,以这种方式衡量,表明了生产要素管理的灵活性,在苏联的整个工业及其高科技部门中都有一个稳定的水平。与此同时,我们的关键假设没有得到足够的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Inequality of World Development as a Global Challenge: «Response» Models 作为全球挑战的世界发展不平等:«应对»模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-29 DOI: 10.26794/2220-6469-2021-15-4-74-87
V. Matyushok, S. Balashova
The inequality of world development as a global «challenge» creates instability of the world economy, leads to an increase in social tension, and along with the threat of climate change, is a priority problem for humankind. The study aims to reveal the parameters and dynamics of global inequality, show its direction, tendencies, and assess the Western and Chinese models («responses») to this challenge, which is a highly urgent scientific and practical task. The research methods are based on developing the concept of inequality in world development using quantitative and qualitative analysis following the «challenge-response» law. For quantitative analysis, we used modern methods of statistical analysis, in particular, quantile regressions. Based on the received results, we concluded and substantiated that the main challenge of our time is the inequality of world development, which has increased under the influence of the pandemic. We have shown that despite the decrease in the share of high-income countries (notably the G7 countries) in world GDP, the trend towards an increase in the gap in per capita income between high and middle-income countries has continued. We also revealed the indicator of labour share in GDP for high and middle-income countries, confirms the hypothesis of increasing inequality between capital owners and workers in several countries over the past 20 years, particularly the United States. We have shown that the Western model of the world order is not focused on solving inequality. The results obtained can be used to develop concepts and models for reducing global inequality.
世界发展的不平等作为一个全球性的“挑战”造成了世界经济的不稳定,导致社会紧张局势的增加,并与气候变化的威胁一起,是人类面临的一个优先问题。该研究旨在揭示全球不平等的参数和动态,显示其方向和趋势,并评估西方和中国的模型(“响应”)这一挑战,这是一项非常紧迫的科学和实践任务。研究方法基于发展世界发展不平等的概念,采用定量和定性分析,遵循“挑战-反应”规律。对于定量分析,我们使用了现代统计分析方法,特别是分位数回归。根据已取得的成果,我们得出结论并证实,我们时代的主要挑战是世界发展的不平等,这种不平等在这一流行病的影响下有所加剧。我们已经表明,尽管高收入国家(特别是七国集团国家)在世界GDP中的份额有所下降,但高收入国家和中等收入国家之间人均收入差距的扩大趋势仍在继续。我们还揭示了高收入和中等收入国家的GDP中劳动力份额的指标,证实了过去20年来几个国家,特别是美国,资本所有者和工人之间的不平等日益加剧的假设。我们已经表明,西方的世界秩序模式并没有专注于解决不平等问题。所得结果可用于发展减少全球不平等的概念和模型。
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引用次数: 1
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The world of new economy
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