This paper is devoted to the different simulation approaches that are described with an example of a basic conceptual inventory control model. The common feature of all simulation is the fact that the results can be acquired only through the processing on a computer with special simulation tools. The ways of creating these programs depend on the chosen philosophy (paradigm) of simulation modelling, and on a corresponding to this paradigm program package used to build a certain model. The authors propose the methodology for selecting simulation paradigms, depending on the simulated inventory control task.
{"title":"The Use of Discrete Rate Simulation Paradigm to Build Models of Inventory Control Systems","authors":"A. Muravjovs, J. Tolujevs, I. Yatskiv","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.115","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is devoted to the different simulation approaches that are described with an example of a basic conceptual inventory control model. The common feature of all simulation is the fact that the results can be acquired only through the processing on a computer with special simulation tools. The ways of creating these programs depend on the chosen philosophy (paradigm) of simulation modelling, and on a corresponding to this paradigm program package used to build a certain model. The authors propose the methodology for selecting simulation paradigms, depending on the simulated inventory control task.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"133 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127308950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Human errors are one of the main sources of many problems related to the reliability of mining machines. Occurrence of human errors is caused by the actions as failure (omission, unsuccessful attempt) to execute a required function, wrong decision in a response on certain problem, performing of function that shouldn't be executed, unsuccessful in recognition (observation, revealing) of a dangerous condition that requires corrective measures, bad timing and bad response on unpredicted circumstances. Integration both of approaches to human factor analysis: top-down (Causes-effect diagram and 5 Why?) and bottom-up (event tree analysis) for mining machines maintenance operations effectiveness improvement is considering in the paper. The method of Causes-effect diagram and 5 Why? are used in the subject investigation to detect and systematize human factors (human errors) that affect the results performing for the mining machines maintenance operation, i.e. sources that cause a maintenance problem. Event Tree Analysis is used as additional method in regard to Causes-effect diagram and 5 Why?. This method described certain logical events which come from primary initial event -- error of maintainer. Event tree is in the subject investigation developed in order to find modes for mitigation waste (injury).
{"title":"Human Factor in Mining Machines Maintenance Operations","authors":"L. Papic, S. Kovacevic","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.80","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.80","url":null,"abstract":"Human errors are one of the main sources of many problems related to the reliability of mining machines. Occurrence of human errors is caused by the actions as failure (omission, unsuccessful attempt) to execute a required function, wrong decision in a response on certain problem, performing of function that shouldn't be executed, unsuccessful in recognition (observation, revealing) of a dangerous condition that requires corrective measures, bad timing and bad response on unpredicted circumstances. Integration both of approaches to human factor analysis: top-down (Causes-effect diagram and 5 Why?) and bottom-up (event tree analysis) for mining machines maintenance operations effectiveness improvement is considering in the paper. The method of Causes-effect diagram and 5 Why? are used in the subject investigation to detect and systematize human factors (human errors) that affect the results performing for the mining machines maintenance operation, i.e. sources that cause a maintenance problem. Event Tree Analysis is used as additional method in regard to Causes-effect diagram and 5 Why?. This method described certain logical events which come from primary initial event -- error of maintainer. Event tree is in the subject investigation developed in order to find modes for mitigation waste (injury).","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127917626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The energy turnaround in Europe increases the importance of wind speed as well as power predictions. This article provides a review of different forecasting approaches for wind speed and wind power. Moreover, recent time series models are discussed in more detail. The focus of this article are accurate short-and medium-term wind speed and power predictions. Finally, recent wind speed and power out-of-sample results are discussed and the problem of asymmetric loss is covered within this article. Precisely, over-and underestimation of wind power predictions have to be weighted in a different way. Therefore, it is reasonable to introduce an asymmetric accuracy measure. To cover the impact of asymmetric loss on wind speed and power predictions, a small example is presented which covers forecasts up to 24 hours.
{"title":"Wind Speed and Power Forecasting - A Review and Incorporating Asymmetric Loss","authors":"D. Ambach, P. Vetter","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.29","url":null,"abstract":"The energy turnaround in Europe increases the importance of wind speed as well as power predictions. This article provides a review of different forecasting approaches for wind speed and wind power. Moreover, recent time series models are discussed in more detail. The focus of this article are accurate short-and medium-term wind speed and power predictions. Finally, recent wind speed and power out-of-sample results are discussed and the problem of asymmetric loss is covered within this article. Precisely, over-and underestimation of wind power predictions have to be weighted in a different way. Therefore, it is reasonable to introduce an asymmetric accuracy measure. To cover the impact of asymmetric loss on wind speed and power predictions, a small example is presented which covers forecasts up to 24 hours.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126619347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Volochiy, O. Mulyak, L. Ozirkovskyi, V. Kharchenko
Providing the high availability level for the Instrumentation and Control (I&C) Systems in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) is highly important. The availability of the critical NPP I&C systems depends on the hardware and software reliability behavior. The high availability of the I&C systems is ensured by the following measures: structural redundancy with choice of the I&C system configurations (two comparable sub-systems in the I&C system, majority voting "2oo3", "2oo4", etc.), maintenance of the I&C system, which implies the repair (changing) of no operational modules, using the N-version programming, software updates, automatic software restart after temporary interrupts caused by the hardware fault. This paper proposes solution of the following case: the configuration of the fault-tolerant I&C system with known reliability indexes of hardware (failure rate and temporary failure rate) is chosen, the maintenance strategy of hardware (mean time to repair, numbers of repair) is specified. In these circumstances it is important to determine quantitative requirements to software reliability: number of software updates during operation I&C system, acceptable duration of the new software version development, acceptable duration of the automatic software restart, determination of acceptable failure rate for each software version. The value of the operational software parameters is determined for the specified availability level of the I&C system. The planned number of software updates determines the duration of testing in order to identify and correct the design faults. Duration of the software testing is limited to the moment when predicted model shows a specified number of hidden (undetected) design faults. To solve this issue, the availability model of the fault-tolerant I&C system was developed in the discrete-continuous stochastic system form. We have estimated the influence of the I&C system on the operational software parameters. Two configurations of I&C systems are presented in this paper: two comparable sub-systems in I&C system, and I&C system with majority voting "2oo3".
{"title":"Automation of Quantitative Requirements Determination to Software Reliability of Safety Critical NPP I&C Systems","authors":"B. Volochiy, O. Mulyak, L. Ozirkovskyi, V. Kharchenko","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.62","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.62","url":null,"abstract":"Providing the high availability level for the Instrumentation and Control (I&C) Systems in Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) is highly important. The availability of the critical NPP I&C systems depends on the hardware and software reliability behavior. The high availability of the I&C systems is ensured by the following measures: structural redundancy with choice of the I&C system configurations (two comparable sub-systems in the I&C system, majority voting \"2oo3\", \"2oo4\", etc.), maintenance of the I&C system, which implies the repair (changing) of no operational modules, using the N-version programming, software updates, automatic software restart after temporary interrupts caused by the hardware fault. This paper proposes solution of the following case: the configuration of the fault-tolerant I&C system with known reliability indexes of hardware (failure rate and temporary failure rate) is chosen, the maintenance strategy of hardware (mean time to repair, numbers of repair) is specified. In these circumstances it is important to determine quantitative requirements to software reliability: number of software updates during operation I&C system, acceptable duration of the new software version development, acceptable duration of the automatic software restart, determination of acceptable failure rate for each software version. The value of the operational software parameters is determined for the specified availability level of the I&C system. The planned number of software updates determines the duration of testing in order to identify and correct the design faults. Duration of the software testing is limited to the moment when predicted model shows a specified number of hidden (undetected) design faults. To solve this issue, the availability model of the fault-tolerant I&C system was developed in the discrete-continuous stochastic system form. We have estimated the influence of the I&C system on the operational software parameters. Two configurations of I&C systems are presented in this paper: two comparable sub-systems in I&C system, and I&C system with majority voting \"2oo3\".","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126950237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The stochastic models of complex machines are built and used in acceptance testing to estimate the technical state of the machines after they have been assembled. The modelling method is based on the multivariate analysis of time series values of the machine diagnostic parameters. The working hypothesis is the following. The non-stationary time series of informative diagnostic machine parameters which characterize the working capacity and reliability of the machine are connected with each other by the stationary statistical dependencies. Identification of the changes in the dependencies is the basis for the proposed information technology to check the performance of the tested machines.
{"title":"Stochastic Models in Acceptance Testing for Complex Machines","authors":"E. Pervukhina, Konstantin Osipov, V. Golikova","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.25","url":null,"abstract":"The stochastic models of complex machines are built and used in acceptance testing to estimate the technical state of the machines after they have been assembled. The modelling method is based on the multivariate analysis of time series values of the machine diagnostic parameters. The working hypothesis is the following. The non-stationary time series of informative diagnostic machine parameters which characterize the working capacity and reliability of the machine are connected with each other by the stationary statistical dependencies. Identification of the changes in the dependencies is the basis for the proposed information technology to check the performance of the tested machines.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116787963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper considers the methodology for the evaluation of aging and degradation of equipment during the designed operational lifecycle. Conclusions are applicable when extending the designed operational lifecycle of nuclear power plants and facilities with long operational lifecycle (30 years or more). Analysis of possible mechanisms of aging of equipment is carried out. As an example, the evaluation of aging and degradation of sealed enclosure system of nuclear power plant localizing safety system is shown. The conservative methods of evaluation of the arising stresses are applied.
{"title":"Modeling and Evaluation of the Aging and Degradation Process","authors":"V. Skliarov","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.36","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the methodology for the evaluation of aging and degradation of equipment during the designed operational lifecycle. Conclusions are applicable when extending the designed operational lifecycle of nuclear power plants and facilities with long operational lifecycle (30 years or more). Analysis of possible mechanisms of aging of equipment is carried out. As an example, the evaluation of aging and degradation of sealed enclosure system of nuclear power plant localizing safety system is shown. The conservative methods of evaluation of the arising stresses are applied.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115616022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Source diversification is known to be potentially beneficial in the presence of random yields. Such is even more the case with global sourcing. This Note poses the following question: How much should a newsvendor order from each supplier if these suppliers either deliver the entire amount ordered from them or nothing? We address this question for equally (un) reliable suppliers, as well as for two suppliers of unequal reliability, and contrast it with a situation of a single supplier.
{"title":"Procurement from Global, Unreliable, All-or-Nothing Suppliers","authors":"Y. Gerchak","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.86","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.86","url":null,"abstract":"Source diversification is known to be potentially beneficial in the presence of random yields. Such is even more the case with global sourcing. This Note poses the following question: How much should a newsvendor order from each supplier if these suppliers either deliver the entire amount ordered from them or nothing? We address this question for equally (un) reliable suppliers, as well as for two suppliers of unequal reliability, and contrast it with a situation of a single supplier.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114604772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Extreme statistics naturally arise in many problems of reliability and survival analysis. In this paper, we obtain several inequalities for the expectation of extreme statistics of a random sample drawn from a distribution with monotone hazard rate. Such distributions are important in many applications and are of special interest. The inequalities are sharp and can be used, in particular, in some characterization problems.
{"title":"Some Inequalities for Distributions with Monotone Hazard Rate","authors":"N. Ushakov, V. Ushakov","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.56","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.56","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme statistics naturally arise in many problems of reliability and survival analysis. In this paper, we obtain several inequalities for the expectation of extreme statistics of a random sample drawn from a distribution with monotone hazard rate. Such distributions are important in many applications and are of special interest. The inequalities are sharp and can be used, in particular, in some characterization problems.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122629419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper presents an overview of applications of a new special technique to reliability assessment for complex multi-state system. The system and its components can have different performance levels ranging from perfect functioning to complete failure. Straightforward Markov method applied to solve the problem will require building of the system model with great number of states and solving a corresponding system of differential equations. Lz-transform method, which is used for reliability assessment, drastically simplified the solution. Instead of straightforward finding of the resulting output stochastic process for entire Multi-state system (MSS) the method proposed finding Lz-transform of this output process, which is essentially simpler because of using Ushakov's Universal Generating Operator. Some reliability indices such as availability, expected performance, etc. may be found from the expression of this Lz-transform. In order to find other indices such as reliability function, mean time to failure etc. inverse LZ-transform is using that completely reveals underlying output process. This special technique is called as Extended Universal Generating Function Technique. The technique was already applied to multi-state system reliability analysis in some research works. The paper presents an overview of this accumulated experience.
{"title":"Application of Extended Universal Generating Function Technique to Dynamic Reliability Analysis of a Multi-state System","authors":"A. Lisnianski","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.12","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents an overview of applications of a new special technique to reliability assessment for complex multi-state system. The system and its components can have different performance levels ranging from perfect functioning to complete failure. Straightforward Markov method applied to solve the problem will require building of the system model with great number of states and solving a corresponding system of differential equations. Lz-transform method, which is used for reliability assessment, drastically simplified the solution. Instead of straightforward finding of the resulting output stochastic process for entire Multi-state system (MSS) the method proposed finding Lz-transform of this output process, which is essentially simpler because of using Ushakov's Universal Generating Operator. Some reliability indices such as availability, expected performance, etc. may be found from the expression of this Lz-transform. In order to find other indices such as reliability function, mean time to failure etc. inverse LZ-transform is using that completely reveals underlying output process. This special technique is called as Extended Universal Generating Function Technique. The technique was already applied to multi-state system reliability analysis in some research works. The paper presents an overview of this accumulated experience.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"152 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123282261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Y. Klochkov, A. Volgina, E. Klochkova, Sergey S. Dementiev
Quality Functions Deployment (QFD) is a mechanism which helps to provide product competitiveness. But we should not oversee the fact that this approach is based on the analysis of consumers' opinions, therefore specifics of human perception should be considered while using QFD. From the Weber-Fechner law it is known that improvement of one of product characteristics does not always lead to changes in consumer perception of product qualities. Therefore, consumer assessment of product quality as well as comparison of two competing products should be used in calculations considering the Weber-Fechner law. The fact that consumer assessment should not be used as a linear scale leads to revision of importance calculation of product characteristics and to the need of specifying plans of product improvement.
{"title":"Human Factor in Quality Function Deployment","authors":"Y. Klochkov, A. Volgina, E. Klochkova, Sergey S. Dementiev","doi":"10.1109/SMRLO.2016.81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SMRLO.2016.81","url":null,"abstract":"Quality Functions Deployment (QFD) is a mechanism which helps to provide product competitiveness. But we should not oversee the fact that this approach is based on the analysis of consumers' opinions, therefore specifics of human perception should be considered while using QFD. From the Weber-Fechner law it is known that improvement of one of product characteristics does not always lead to changes in consumer perception of product qualities. Therefore, consumer assessment of product quality as well as comparison of two competing products should be used in calculations considering the Weber-Fechner law. The fact that consumer assessment should not be used as a linear scale leads to revision of importance calculation of product characteristics and to the need of specifying plans of product improvement.","PeriodicalId":254910,"journal":{"name":"2016 Second International Symposium on Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering, Life Science and Operations Management (SMRLO)","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122824838","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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