Pub Date : 2019-02-28DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.83
Moosang Cho, Joo-ha Nam
This study examines the existence of explosive bubbles in house prices. Even if there is a bubble in the house prices, as long as it is not explosive, we can not conclude that there exists a bubble only based on the fact that house prices soar or are too high because house prices can be restored to a proper level after a certain period of adjustment. Therefore, using Information Error model, we measure the bubble term, which is defined as the gap between the intrinsic value explained by the market fundamentals and the market price, and then check whether there is an explosive bubble by Survival analysis. Housing Sales Price Index as a dependent variable, and explanatory variables such as not only Jeonse Price Index but also Sales-Jeonse Prices ratio, which reflect properly the relation between sales and rental prices, are included for Information Error model. Survival analysis is performed by an exogenous as well as an endogenous bubble model. Survival times of bubbles are assumed to be independent of market fundamentals in exogenous bubbles model while dependent in endogenous bubbles model. Samples are the period from January 1987 to December 2017 and six sub sample periods. Regional ranges are for the four regions of the whole country, the six metropolitan cities, Seoul Gangnam, and Seoul Gangbuk. For the exogenous bubbles model, 'Not' in the whole sample 'nor' any sub-samples, the existence of explosive bubbles was found. For the endogenous bubbles model in which ‘interest rate’ are used as market fundamental variables, shape parameter is estimated to be . Values of the shape parameter, , with larger than 2 are not found in both of exogenous and endogenous bubbles model of Survival analysis, so we can not find any evidence supporting existence of explosive bubbles. It implies that there are no explosive but stable bubbles in any sub-sample, and the bubbles become extinct over time.
{"title":"An Estimation of Explosive Bubbles in House Prices","authors":"Moosang Cho, Joo-ha Nam","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.83","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the existence of explosive bubbles in house prices. Even if there is a bubble in the house prices, as long as it is not explosive, we can not conclude that there exists a bubble only based on the fact that house prices soar or are too high because house prices can be restored to a proper level after a certain period of adjustment. Therefore, using Information Error model, we measure the bubble term, which is defined as the gap between the intrinsic value explained by the market fundamentals and the market price, and then check whether there is an explosive bubble by Survival analysis. Housing Sales Price Index as a dependent variable, and explanatory variables such as not only Jeonse Price Index but also Sales-Jeonse Prices ratio, which reflect properly the relation between sales and rental prices, are included for Information Error model. Survival analysis is performed by an exogenous as well as an endogenous bubble model. Survival times of bubbles are assumed to be independent of market fundamentals in exogenous bubbles model while dependent in endogenous bubbles model. Samples are the period from January 1987 to December 2017 and six sub sample periods. Regional ranges are for the four regions of the whole country, the six metropolitan cities, Seoul Gangnam, and Seoul Gangbuk. For the exogenous bubbles model, 'Not' in the whole sample 'nor' any sub-samples, the existence of explosive bubbles was found. For the endogenous bubbles model in which ‘interest rate’ are used as market fundamental variables, shape parameter is estimated to be . Values of the shape parameter, , with larger than 2 are not found in both of exogenous and endogenous bubbles model of Survival analysis, so we can not find any evidence supporting existence of explosive bubbles. It implies that there are no explosive but stable bubbles in any sub-sample, and the bubbles become extinct over time.","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122851537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-02-28DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.113
Lee Youngsoo
This paper examines the dynamic impact of monetary policy shocks on the Korean housing market using a Bayesian VAR model. I identify the monetary policy shocks by imposing a mixture of zero, range, and sign restrictions on the responses of variables, and analyze the impact of the shocks by means of impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions. Data covers the period from January 2006 to December 2017. The results are as follows: First, monetary policy shocks give rise to bigger impacts on housing transaction volume than on housing price. Second, monetary policy shocks bring about larger effects on the housing market than on the macro goods market. Third, the impacts of monetary policy shocks on housing price get profoundly bigger with the inclusion of the financial crisis period data. Fourth, the effects of monetary policy shocks can be overrated if we do not set the proper limits to the range of mortgage rate change.
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Housing Market: Bayesian VAR Analysis using Sign Restrictions","authors":"Lee Youngsoo","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.113","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the dynamic impact of monetary policy shocks on the Korean housing market using a Bayesian VAR model. I identify the monetary policy shocks by imposing a mixture of zero, range, and sign restrictions on the responses of variables, and analyze the impact of the shocks by means of impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions. Data covers the period from January 2006 to December 2017. The results are as follows: First, monetary policy shocks give rise to bigger impacts on housing transaction volume than on housing price. Second, monetary policy shocks bring about larger effects on the housing market than on the macro goods market. Third, the impacts of monetary policy shocks on housing price get profoundly bigger with the inclusion of the financial crisis period data. Fourth, the effects of monetary policy shocks can be overrated if we do not set the proper limits to the range of mortgage rate change.","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131620097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-30DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.131
Hyun-Young Kim, Kyupil Yeon, Young-man Lee
{"title":"Smoothing of Jeonse Rental Price Index and Jeonse Transaction Volume - The Case of Condominiums in Seoul -","authors":"Hyun-Young Kim, Kyupil Yeon, Young-man Lee","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.131","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127640507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-30DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.79
Jun-hyung Kim, Sung-soo Koh
{"title":"A Study on the Determinants of Loan Spread for REITs","authors":"Jun-hyung Kim, Sung-soo Koh","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.79","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127421560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-30DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.179
Myong-kyo Suh, Hyung-joo Kim
The analyses of circulating and causal relationship between the housing and the construction business cycles were conducted by using the HP filter and impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis using the VAR model on variables representing the South Korean housing and construction market and macroeconomic variables for a period from 1986 to 2017. The results show that the average business cycle length was found to be around 5~6 years, with the period of expansion being 1.3~1.5 times longer than that of recession, in the housing market and approximately 6~7 years in the construction industry. And while the amplitude is ever decreasing. those of rental prices, apartment prices, Seoul prices and construction orders were found to relatively large. The leading and lagging relationship of variables were analyzed in the following order: interest rate → GDP → housing price → construction order → construction investment, and the interest rate had a significant influence in the negative (-) direction on all variables. These findings point to the availability that a market mechanism is in operation, which helps economic players including the government obtain information and execute actions more accurately and quickly than in the past. Also, the government’s policy to focus on the risk variables, which are relatively bigger amplitudes, will be more effective. It also suggests that the construction market can be predicted to a certain extent through the current cyclical phase of the housing market and it is necessary to respond very sensitively to interest rate fluctuations.
{"title":"Circulating and Casual Relationship between Housing Business Cycle and Construction Business Cycle","authors":"Myong-kyo Suh, Hyung-joo Kim","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.179","url":null,"abstract":"The analyses of circulating and causal relationship between the housing and the construction business cycles were conducted by using the HP filter and impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis using the VAR model on variables representing the South Korean housing and construction market and macroeconomic variables for a period from 1986 to 2017. The results show that the average business cycle length was found to be around 5~6 years, with the period of expansion being 1.3~1.5 times longer than that of recession, in the housing market and approximately 6~7 years in the construction industry. And while the amplitude is ever decreasing. those of rental prices, apartment prices, Seoul prices and construction orders were found to relatively large. The leading and lagging relationship of variables were analyzed in the following order: interest rate → GDP → housing price → construction order → construction investment, and the interest rate had a significant influence in the negative (-) direction on all variables. These findings point to the availability that a market mechanism is in operation, which helps economic players including the government obtain information and execute actions more accurately and quickly than in the past. Also, the government’s policy to focus on the risk variables, which are relatively bigger amplitudes, will be more effective. It also suggests that the construction market can be predicted to a certain extent through the current cyclical phase of the housing market and it is necessary to respond very sensitively to interest rate fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"87 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124988545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-30DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.05
Mee-Youn Jin, Sanghee Choi
{"title":"A Study on the Conditions of Provision and Management of Gosi-won and Future Policy Direction","authors":"Mee-Youn Jin, Sanghee Choi","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.05","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129693832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-30DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.37
S. You
{"title":"Housing Starts in the Transition Period","authors":"S. You","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.37","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115485425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-30DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.109
Byeng Kuk Kim, Seoungwoo Shin
{"title":"A Study on the Spread of Guarantee Fee of Apartment Project Financing","authors":"Byeng Kuk Kim, Seoungwoo Shin","doi":"10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/HSR.2018.26.3.109","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128457139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-08-30DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2018.26.3.55
Kiseong Jeong
This study aims to examine the impact factors of the intention to live in Hangbok housing, focusing on the vulnerable in Incheon. As analysis method, Artificial neural network(ANN) and binomial logit model are used. Comparative analysis between the methods and synthesis were conducted. The main findings are as follows. First, based on the AUROC and prediction accuracy result, the statistical power of ANN model is better than those of the logit model. Second, important factors that affect the intention to move to Hangbok housing are newlyweds, monthly income, housing benefit recognition, and tenure type. Third, the factors of number of households, tenure type, moving plans, newlyweds, and housing support program have a significant and positive effect on the intention to move to Hangbok housing, while factors of age, social housing living, monthly income, debt status, housing benefit recognition have a negative influence on the intention. Next, it was found that newly-weds who are relatively young and need for housing support programs have a higher willingness to move in the public rental housing, compared to other household types. In addition, it can be seen that households who are currently living in the public rental housing in Incheon do not prefer to change the type of housing to a Hangbok housing.
{"title":"Application of Artificial Neural Network model to an Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Intention of the Vulnerable Class to move to Hangbok Housing in Incheon","authors":"Kiseong Jeong","doi":"10.24957/hsr.2018.26.3.55","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24957/hsr.2018.26.3.55","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to examine the impact factors of the intention to live in Hangbok housing, focusing on the vulnerable in Incheon. As analysis method, Artificial neural network(ANN) and binomial logit model are used. Comparative analysis between the methods and synthesis were conducted. The main findings are as follows. First, based on the AUROC and prediction accuracy result, the statistical power of ANN model is better than those of the logit model. Second, important factors that affect the intention to move to Hangbok housing are newlyweds, monthly income, housing benefit recognition, and tenure type. Third, the factors of number of households, tenure type, moving plans, newlyweds, and housing support program have a significant and positive effect on the intention to move to Hangbok housing, while factors of age, social housing living, monthly income, debt status, housing benefit recognition have a negative influence on the intention. Next, it was found that newly-weds who are relatively young and need for housing support programs have a higher willingness to move in the public rental housing, compared to other household types. In addition, it can be seen that households who are currently living in the public rental housing in Incheon do not prefer to change the type of housing to a Hangbok housing.","PeriodicalId":255849,"journal":{"name":"Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125393911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：