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Spillover Effects of Regional Apartment Business Cycles Using Factor-Augmented VAR Model 基于因子增强VAR模型的区域公寓经济周期溢出效应研究
Pub Date : 2019-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2019.27.3.147
Doowon Bang, HyuckShin Kwon, M. Kim
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引用次数: 1
A Study on the Foundations for Continued Growth of French Social Housing and Recent Policy Dilemma 法国社会住房持续增长的基础及近期政策困境研究
Pub Date : 2019-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2019.27.3.5
Mee-Youn Jin, Kyeongsu Kim
The purpose of this study is to examine the characteristics of the generalist social housing model in France, factors behind the continued growth of French social housing, and how current social housing issues are being addressed by the French government. The generalist social housing model is primarily characterized by three ways of supplying social housing, which differentiate target beneficiaries, the government support structure that does not limit the participants in social housing supply initiatives, and the supply ecosystem that provides various solutions to meet the diverse needs of each local community. The continued growth of social housing is attributed to funds raised through savings accounts based on social solidarity, which are then redistributed by CDC, the 1% employer's housing fund and the well-structured governance system. Above all, the French government’s continued expansion of social housing despite changes in time and administration is an achievement and power of the consensus reached by the people, businesses, and political leaders of France. In response to recent issues raised about the effectiveness, efficiency, and distributive equity of social housing sector, the French government came up with various solutions, such as strengthening the qualification standards for beneficiaries, streamlining processes and methods, strengthening the right to housing, increasing protection of vulnerable groups, and narrowing regional gaps. However, a growing number of low-income households, dwindling financial support, and increasing self-financing burdens imposed on suppliers may threaten the sustainability of the generalist model and hamper the expansion of social housing supply.
本研究的目的是研究法国通用型社会住房模式的特点,法国社会住房持续增长背后的因素,以及法国政府如何解决当前的社会住房问题。通用型社会住房模式的主要特征是提供社会住房的三种方式,这区分了目标受益人,政府支持结构不限制社会住房供应计划的参与者,以及提供各种解决方案以满足每个当地社区多样化需求的供应生态系统。社会住房的持续增长归功于基于社会团结的储蓄账户筹集的资金,这些资金随后由CDC、1%的雇主住房基金和结构良好的治理体系重新分配。最重要的是,法国政府不顾时间和行政的变化,继续扩大社会住房,这是法国人民、企业和政治领导人达成共识的成果和力量。法国政府针对最近社会住房领域的有效性、效率性、分配公平性等问题,提出了强化受惠者资格标准、简化程序和方法、强化住房权、加强弱势群体保护、缩小地区差距等多种解决方案。然而,越来越多的低收入家庭、越来越少的财政支持和越来越多的供应商自筹资金负担可能会威胁到通才模式的可持续性,并阻碍社会住房供应的扩大。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Factors Influencing Rate of Return of New Stay REITs - Focusing on the Comparison with Rent-based REITs - 新住宿型REITs回报率影响因素研究——以与租金型REITs比较为中心
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.2.91
Jun-hyung Kim, Sung-soo Koh
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引用次数: 0
Long-Term Relationship between the Gap in User-Rental Costs and Housing Prices 用户租赁成本差距与房价的长期关系
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.2.63
Seungryul Ma
we conducted this study to confirm the long-term relationship between the home owner’s user cost() and renter’s rental cost() of the same house as well as confirming the long-term relationship between the value of ( ) and housing price(). To do this, after building reasonable formulas to calculate the values of  and  varied by time t, we analyzed the values of  and  by region. In the end, we presented the future forecasted values of ( ) and . Related to the long-term relationship between  and , it is expected that the demand for home buying would increase when the situation of < lasted. On the contrary, the demand for home buying would decrease when the situation of > lasted. Meanwhile, the potential home buyer could prefer renting to buying the same home when the growth rate of house price is lower than average growth rate. This period is expected to be highly related to the period when the situation of > lasted, and in our analysis, we could confirm this close relationship. It is expected that the analyzed results of the long-term relationship between ( ) and  as well as the forecasting method we used in our analysis could be used as a meaningful indicator to estimate the future direction of housing market environment by region in advance.
我们进行了这项研究,以确认房主的使用成本()和租房者的租赁成本()之间的长期关系,以及()的价值和房价()之间的长期关系。为此,我们建立了合理的公式,计算出随着时间t的变化,我们分析了不同地区的oy和的值。最后给出了()和的未来预测值。考虑到和之间的长期关系,预计当的情况持续下去时,购房需求将会增加。同时,当房价增长率低于平均增长率时,潜在购房者可能更倾向于租房而不是买房。预计这一时期与o_>情况持续的时期高度相关,在我们的分析中,我们可以证实这种密切的关系。期望()和()之间的长期关系的分析结果,以及我们在分析中使用的预测方法,可以作为一个有意义的指标,提前估计各地区住房市场环境的未来走向。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Influence Factors on Residential Mobility Plan to Non-Capital Area of Households in Capital Area 首都地区居民向非首都地区迁移计划的影响因素研究
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.2.117
Mihwa Lim
The residential mobility of households to the metropolitan area has led to the rapid rise in house prices, traffic congestion, and environmental problems in urbanized locations. On the other hand, in the case of non-metropolitan areas, there are many problems due to population decline and a shrinking urban scale. To solve such urban problems, it is necessary to explore residential mobility. This study empirically analyzed the factors affecting the residential mobility plan of households in the capital area, and migration to the non-capital area through the five-year Korea Housing Survey. According to the results of this study, the characteristics of households that are planning to move to non-capital areas are as follows: Rental households in the capital area, households without school-aged children, households with a low living cost compared to living expenses, and households that are planning to own a house. Considering that these characteristics were significant, while the age of the household resident and other household characteristics were not significant, it can be implied that, in the case of the non-capital area, residential mobility is not due to the voluntary choice of households to reside in the capital area. Rather it is because households face housing instability due to their economic capacity and current lease situation, thus they choose to move to a non-capital area in the hopes of a stable residential life through the ownership of a house. This is a result of the need to differentiate the housing policy in the non-capital area from that in the capital area.
家庭向大都市地区的迁移导致了房价的快速上涨、交通拥堵和城市化地区的环境问题。另一方面,在非大都市地区,由于人口减少和城市规模缩小,存在许多问题。为了解决这些城市问题,有必要探索居民的流动性。本研究通过为期五年的韩国住房调查,实证分析了影响首都地区家庭迁居计划和向非首都地区迁移的因素。根据此次调查结果,计划迁移到非首都地区的家庭的特点是:首都地区的租赁家庭、没有学龄子女的家庭、与生活费相比生活费用较低的家庭、计划拥有住房的家庭。考虑到这些特征是显著的,而住户的年龄和其他住户特征不显著,可以暗示,在非首都地区,居民流动不是由于住户自愿选择居住在首都地区。而是由于家庭的经济能力和目前的租赁情况,他们面临住房不稳定的问题,因此他们选择搬到非首都地区,希望通过拥有房屋来稳定的居住生活。这是因为要区分首都地区和非首都地区的住房政策。
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引用次数: 1
A Study on the Impact of Living Floor on the Price of an Apartment using a Spatio-temporal Model 居住楼层对公寓价格影响的时空模型研究
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.2.5
Kyung-Sook Lee, Se-won Park, Jeong Tae-Yun
This study analyzes the impact of living floor on the price of an apartment using 3,249 price data sample of apartments traded in Sejong city in 2017. In addition to a traditional regression analysis, we employ a spatial lag model, and a spatio-temporal model to consider the prices of neighboring apartments. Among these, spatio-temporal model turned out to be the fittest since its log likelihood was the biggest with having the smallest AIC and SC value. In regard to living floor which is our main concern, we made a dummy variable per 3- floor- unit with having 1-3 floor unit as our reference variable, and the highest dummy being 28-30 floor unit dummy. We controlled such variables as size, total floor, age, squared age, the number of households, parking lot capacity, stair type apartment dummy, distance from government complex, distance from Daejon city hall, BTR dummy, brand name dummy, and time fixed effect dummy which can also affect the price. As results, we found that except for the number of households variable and time fixed effect variables, most variables were significant with 1% level. Especially, living floor dummy of our interest showed that except for 19-21 floor dummy, the higher the floor, the higher the price. This result is different from literature where living floor raises the price up to a certain point of floor, but after the point the price rather declines. This may be because the residents in Sejong city are comparatively young, on average, and they may favor high living floors which can provide good environmental benefits. Besides, the coefficient of relative living floor (living floor/total floor) was bigger than that of living floor, which shows that apartment purchasers value relative height of living floor more than just the height of living floor.
本研究利用2017年世宗市交易公寓的3249个价格数据样本,分析了生活楼层对公寓价格的影响。在传统回归分析的基础上,本文采用空间滞后模型和时空模型来考虑相邻公寓的价格。其中,时空模型最适合,其对数似然最大,AIC和SC值最小。对于我们主要关注的居住楼层,我们以1-3层的单位作为参考变量,每3层设置一个虚拟变量,最高的虚拟单位为28-30层的虚拟单位。我们控制了面积、总建筑面积、楼龄、平方楼龄、户数、停车场容量、楼梯型公寓模型、与政府大楼的距离、与大田市政厅的距离、BTR模型、品牌模型、时间固定效应模型等也会影响价格的变量。结果发现,除户数变量和时间固定效应变量外,大多数变量在1%水平上显著。特别是,我们感兴趣的生活楼层假人显示,除了19-21层的假人,楼层越高,价格越高。这一结果不同于文献中生活地板将价格提高到地板的某一点,但在这个点之后价格反而下降。这可能是因为,世宗市居民的平均年龄相对较低,而且他们更喜欢环境效益好的高层住宅。此外,相对居住层(居住层/总建筑层)的系数大于居住层的系数,说明公寓购买者更看重居住层的相对高度,而不仅仅是居住层的高度。
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引用次数: 1
Determinants of Housing Mortgage Prepayment in Korea: Using a Loan-Level Dataset 韩国住房抵押贷款提前支付的决定因素:使用贷款水平数据集
Pub Date : 2019-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.2.33
So-Young Lee, Seung-Chang Park, Chang-Moo Lee
This study empirically investigates housing mortgage prepayment behavior decisions in Korea. Using the loan-level data from 2013 to 2014, a Cox proportional hazard model and a shared frailty model which controls the effect of unobserved heterogeneity among local markets are estimated. The results show that there exists significant heterogeneity among the local markets. Ignoring this heterogeneity results in errors in estimating the prepayment behavior of borrowers. Estimation results show that the higher expected housing price change, the lower the hazard rate of prepayment and the higher collateral value change, the higher the hazard rate of prepayment. The sale for capital gains as well as refinance by option value may also cause prepayment. The greater the degree where the collateral value declines, the higher the hazard rate of prepayment. It means that distressed prepayment is an alternative when the collateral value declines. Estimation results also indicate that loan characteristics like LTV, loan amount, maturity period, grace period, and borrower characteristics like borrower’s age, income, credit rating are determinants of prepayment. Especially, low credit serves as a constraint on refinance.
本研究实证调查了韩国的住房抵押贷款提前支付行为决策。利用2013 - 2014年的贷款水平数据,估计了Cox比例风险模型和控制地方市场不可观测异质性影响的共享脆弱性模型。结果表明,地方市场之间存在显著的异质性。忽略这种异质性会导致在估计借款人的提前还款行为时出现错误。估计结果表明,预期房价变动越高,提前还款的风险率越低;抵押品价值变动越高,提前还款的风险率越高。出售股票以获得资本收益,以及通过期权价值进行再融资,也可能导致提前付款。抵押品价值下降的程度越大,提前支付的风险率越高。这意味着当抵押品价值下降时,不良贷款提前支付是一种选择。估算结果还表明,LTV、贷款金额、到期日、宽限期等贷款特征以及借款人年龄、收入、信用等级等借款人特征是提前还款的决定因素。特别是,低信贷对再融资起到了限制作用。
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引用次数: 1
A Study on Korea’s Public Rental Housing Policy Using Ghekière’s Social Housing System Typology 基于gheki<e:1>社会住房制度类型学的韩国公共租赁住房政策研究
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.31
Inyoung Bong, Hye Jin Choi
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引用次数: 0
Factors Affecting the Days on Market of Residential Real Estate in Seoul 影响首尔地区住宅房地产市场行情的因素
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2019.27.1.05
Jin-soo Ko, Seong-ho Choi, Seung-Chul Noh
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引用次数: 0
A Study on Influence of Gyeongju Earthquake on Preference of Apartment Height 庆州地震对公寓高度偏好的影响研究
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.24957/HSR.2019.27.1.53
Dong-Il Kim, Park,Sae-Won, Tae-yun Jeong
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies
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