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Nonlinear Influence of Apartment Housing Prices Uncertainty on Apartment Jeonse Prices 公寓房价不确定性对公寓全租价格的非线性影响
Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.4.93
Sangbae Kim, Seung-A Lee
The purpose of this study is to examine the nonlinear relationship between apartment jeonse price index and volatilities of apartment housing prices in Korea. We adopt a logistic smooth transition autoregressive(LSTAR) model and use apartment housing price volatility as a transition variable. To do this, we utilize the apartment jeonse price index and apartment housing price index, while the sample period ranges from May 1995 to March 2022. In this paper, the EGARCH model is used to estimate apartment housing prices volatility due to the asymmetry of volatility. We find from the estimation results of nonlinearity that nonlinear models are more appropriate than linear models to capture the dynamic properties of apartment jeonse price index. In addition, the empirical result of the nonlinear LSTAR model shows that the apartment jeonse prices increase in a situation where apartment housing price uncertainty is high. In addition, when we examine the effect of the changes in interest rate on the jeonse prices, we found that the effect of interest rate is statistically insignificant in the LSTAR model, while the changes in interest rate affects the jeonse prices negatively in the linear model. Overall, our result suggests that for the stability of the apartment jeonse prices, it is necessary to minimize uncertainties in apartment housing prices.
本研究的目的是检验韩国公寓全租价格指数与公寓房价波动之间的非线性关系。本文采用logistic平滑过渡自回归(LSTAR)模型,并以公寓房价波动作为过渡变量。为此,我们使用了公寓全租价格指数和公寓住宅价格指数,样本时间为1995年5月至2022年3月。由于波动的不对称性,本文采用EGARCH模型来估计公寓房价的波动。从非线性的估计结果中发现,非线性模型比线性模型更适合于反映公寓全租价格指数的动态特性。此外,非线性LSTAR模型的实证结果表明,在公寓房价不确定性较高的情况下,公寓全租价格会上涨。此外,当我们检验利率变化对全租价格的影响时,我们发现利率的影响在LSTAR模型中统计上不显著,而利率变化对全租价格的影响在线性模型中为负。综上所述,为了公寓全租价格的稳定,有必要将公寓房价的不确定性降到最低。
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引用次数: 1
How has the Housing Status of the Middle-Income Class Changed over the Past Decade? 在过去十年中,中等收入阶层的住房状况发生了怎样的变化?
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.3.141
Mee-Youn Jin, Kyung-Ae Lee, Kyeongsu Kim
This article explores the middle class segment of the population in terms of housing status. The middle class is defined as those living in households with incomes ranging between 75% and 200% of the national median presented by the OECD (2019). The housing status is operationally defined by compounding three factors: housing tenure types, housing-related debt, and real estate assets. Microdata from the Household Welfare Financial Survey (2012~2021) of the National Statistical Office were used in the analysis. The main results of identifying the role of housing in maintaining and reproducing the middle class over the past decade are as follows. First, although the proportion of middle-class population has somewhat increased recently, this does not mean that the economic contributions of the middle class has increased. Consequently, it is necessary to develop new indicators that can represent a society with a sizable middle class. Second, housing polarization, which is being differentiated within the middle class, was clearly revealed. Addressing the missing middle issues or marginalized middle class, it is necessary to identify the policy needs and prepare preemptive measures such as expanding affordable housing and alleviating the housing cost burden. Third, in the recent global discourse on housing, South Korea was no exception. The middle class with housing loans become richer compared to middle class without housing loans. Those in the middle class with real estate assets become richer than those without. On the other hand, for the middle class without home ownership but who took out housing loans for rent, the house only represents a debt to be paid back and an object to be struggled with.
本文从住房状况的角度探讨了人口中的中产阶级部分。中产阶级的定义是,家庭收入在经合组织(2019年)的全国中位数的75%至200%之间。住房状况在操作上由三个因素综合定义:住房使用权类型、住房相关债务和房地产资产。此次分析采用了统计厅“家庭福利财政调查(2012~2021年)”的微观数据。在过去十年中,确定住房在维持和再生产中产阶级中的作用的主要结果如下。首先,虽然中产阶级人口的比例最近有所增加,但这并不意味着中产阶级的经济贡献增加了。因此,有必要开发能够反映中产阶级规模庞大的社会的新指标。第二,中产阶层内部分化的住宅两极化现象明显。为了解决中产阶层的缺失或被边缘化问题,有必要明确政策需求,制定扩大保障房和减轻住宅费用负担等先发制人的对策。第三,在最近关于住房的全球讨论中,韩国也不例外。有住房贷款的中产阶级比没有住房贷款的中产阶级更富有。拥有房地产资产的中产阶级比没有房地产资产的中产阶级更富有。相反,对于没有住房的中产阶层来说,住房只是一种需要偿还的债务和一种需要挣扎的对象。
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引用次数: 0
The Thirty Years of the Housing Studies Review : A Text-Mining Approach 住房研究回顾三十年:文本挖掘方法
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.3.179
Soon Mahn Park, Ho Jin Lee, (Eun Sang Jung, S. You, Yeong Woo Nam, K. Ji
We analyze the research trend of the Housing Research Review over the period of 1993 to 2021. In particular, adopting text-mining methodologies: word frequency analysis, wordcloud technique, N-gram, and Topic Modeling, we analyze titles and keywords of all the papers on the journal. Based on those analyses, we find that words that the papers on the journal most frequently used over the past 30 years are ‘housing’ and ‘research’, which are followed by ‘price’, ‘househhold’ and ‘income’. Our word proximity analsyis shows the most-related keywords; housing prices, housing markets, fluctuations, and trading volume in terms of market and price structure; housing occupancy and household changes in terms of housing demand. Our analysis of Latent Dirichlet Allocation reveals six categories; ‘the ownership and apartments’, ‘price and space’, ‘real estate policy and regulation’, ‘household’s decision in housing market’, ‘regional characteristics evaluation’, and ‘residency and rental housing’. The most interested topics are related to ‘price’, and we confirm that the topics of interest has been changed over the decades; from ‘development and management’ and ‘rental housing and real estate’ to ‘public housing’. In addition, our analysis confirms that housing research on Housing Studies Review is comprehensive and includes a variety of housing topics.
我们分析了1993年至2021年期间住房研究评论的研究趋势。特别地,我们采用文本挖掘方法:词频分析、词云技术、N-gram和主题建模,对期刊上所有论文的标题和关键词进行分析。基于这些分析,我们发现,在过去30年里,该期刊上的论文中使用频率最高的词是“住房”和“研究”,其次是“价格”、“家庭”和“收入”。我们的单词接近度分析显示相关度最高的关键词;房价、住房市场、波动和交易量的市场和价格结构;住房入住率和住户住房需求的变化。我们对潜在狄利克雷分配的分析揭示了六个类别;“所有权与公寓”、“价格与空间”、“房地产政策与调控”、“住房市场中的居民决策”、“区域特征评价”、“居住与租赁住房”。最感兴趣的话题与“价格”有关,我们确认感兴趣的话题在过去的几十年里已经发生了变化;从“开发和管理”、“租赁住房和房地产”到“公共住房”。此外,我们的分析证实,住房研究评论的住房研究是全面的,包括各种住房主题。
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking the Role of Local Governments in Housing Policy: Focused on Public Rental Housing 重新思考地方政府在住房政策中的角色:以公共租赁住房为例
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.3.5
Hee-Jin Yang, Jun-hyung Kim, Do-Yeun Park, Nahyun Kim
Since housing is a location-fixed property, the causes and solutions for housing problems in each region are inevitably different. Accordingly, since the 1990s, when the local autonomy system began, there has been continued discussions on the necessity of localizing housing policies. However, the central government still plays a leading role in the planning and implementation of housing policies, and the local governments play a supportive role. While focusing on the public rental housing policies, this paper aims to identify the obstacles deterring the localization of housing policies and to suggest practical implications for expanding the role of local governments in public housing policies. Through in-depth interviews with major stakeholders such as local governments and local public enterprises, this paper argues that the local government’s comprehensive housing plan should be strengthened in terms of its status and role. In the proposed new system, local governments establish public rental housing policies in consideration of individual local conditions. The central government should present budget allocation standards so that local governments can reduce the financial burden of the supply and management of public rental housing.
由于住房是一种地域性财产,因此各个地区住房问题产生的原因和解决办法必然是不同的。因此,从地方自治制度开始的20世纪90年代开始,有关住宅政策地方化必要性的讨论一直在持续。但是,中央政府在住房政策的规划和实施中仍然发挥主导作用,地方政府发挥支持作用。本文以公共租赁住房政策为重点,旨在找出阻碍住房政策本土化的障碍,并为扩大地方政府在公共住房政策中的作用提出现实意义。本文通过对地方政府和地方公共企业等主要利益相关者的深入访谈,认为地方政府的综合住房规划在地位和作用上都应该得到加强。在拟议的新制度中,地方政府根据各自的情况制定公共租赁住房政策。中央政府应制定预算分配标准,以减轻地方政府在公共租赁住房供应和管理方面的财政负担。
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引用次数: 1
Is the Decision to Move into a Public Rental House Related to the Residential Environment? : An Empirical Analysis of Happiness Housing 入住公租房是否与居住环境有关?:幸福住房的实证分析
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.3.43
Kyung-Ae Lee, Yong-Soon Kim, Kiseong Jeong, S. Won
Happy housing to promote housing stability for young people has recently faced the problem of a surge in long-term public prices. Given that happy housing is a residential welfare program in which large-scale government finances are administered, it is an important issue that the number of homes that have been vacant for a long time is increasing significantly. There are various causes for Gong-ga. This study analyzed the relationship between the residential environment in terms of location and the occurrence of public housing using GIS. According to the calculation of the integrated location accessibility index by geographical analysis of 4 places with 20% or more and 5% of the total number of houses, the location of happy housing complexes in Uijeongbu, Gimpo, and Dangjin in Gyeonggi Province was relatively poor. Based on these results, this study argued that it is necessary to closely examine the analysis of the residential environment using accurate geographic information data when establishing a future public rental housing supply plan.
为年轻人促进住房稳定的快乐住房最近面临着长期公共价格飙升的问题。“幸福住宅”是政府投入大量资金的居住福利事业,因此,长期空置的住宅数量大幅增加是一个重要问题。宫嘎的成因有很多。本研究利用GIS分析了居住环境的区位与公共住房的发生之间的关系。根据对住宅总数占5%、占20%以上的4个地区进行地理分析得出的综合区位可达性指数,京畿议政府、金浦、唐津等幸福住宅园区的区位相对较差。基于这些结果,本研究认为,在制定未来公共租赁住房供应计划时,有必要使用准确的地理信息数据仔细检查居住环境分析。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of Changes in Fertility Rate and Demographic Structure on Housing Prices: Centering on Dongtan New Town 生育率和人口结构变化对房价的影响——以东滩新城为中心
Pub Date : 2022-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.2.113
Yun-Hong Lee
As a result of analyzing the influence of variables related to the demographic structure, it was found that the price of apartments traded at a time when the total fertility rate was high, the lower the price. In the case of acetic age, the price of apartments traded at a time when the acetic age was higher was found to be lower. It was found that the ratio of single-person households had a negative effect on apartment transaction prices, and the ratio of double-person households had a positive effect on apartment transaction prices. These results suggest that transaction prices tend to fall as apartments traded at a time when the number of single-person households composed of unmarried or students increases. On the contrary, it was found that apartments traded at a time when more double-person households move in are more likely to rise in price. The elderly ratio was found to have no significant effect on apartment transaction prices, but the higher the price of apartments traded at a time when more people in their 60s moved in. In addition, it was found that the high proportion of people in their 60s moved in and apartment prices rose during the period when their transactions were concentrated, mainly in high-priced apartment complexes. These results suggest that changes in fertility rates and demographic structure have a significant impact on apartment prices in new cities. Therefore, it seems important to predict changes in the fertility rate and demographic structure of the region when deciding on apartment supply policies to prevent soaring apartment prices.
对人口结构相关变量的影响进行分析的结果显示,在总生育率高的时期交易的公寓价格越低。在醋酸年龄的情况下,发现在醋酸年龄较高时交易的公寓价格较低。结果发现,单人户型比例对公寓交易价格有负向影响,双人户型比例对公寓交易价格有正向影响。这表明,在未婚或学生组成的单身家庭增加的时候,公寓交易价格往往会下降。相反,在两个人入住较多的时期进行交易的公寓,价格上涨的可能性较大。老人比率对公寓交易价格没有显著影响,但60多岁老人入住越多,公寓交易价格越高。另外,据调查,60多岁老人的迁入率较高,在他们的交易集中时期,公寓价格也有所上涨,主要集中在高价公寓园区。这些结果表明,生育率和人口结构的变化对新建城市的公寓价格有显著影响。因此,为了防止公寓价格暴涨,在制定公寓供应政策时,有必要预测生育率和人口结构的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Pricing the Right to Renew House Lease Contracts Using the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model 基于Black-Scholes期权定价模型的房屋租赁续约权定价
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.2.5
Seryoong Ahn
The right to renew house lease contracts, introduced with the amendment of the Housing Lease Protection Act in July 2020, refers to the right to renew the lease contract only if the lessee wishes to do so upon expiration of the initial lease contract. This study presents Korea’s first model that can directly evaluate the appropriate value of this right to renew house lease contracts. Specifically, this study presents a pricing model using the Black-Scholes model focusing on the characteristics of the renewal right as a call option. Unlike general stock options, these renewal rights are not traded separately in the market, so a model in which the value of renewal contract is included in the chonsei price is also presented. Subsequently, this model is expanded and examined wherein the chonsei price can be increased at a certain rate when the contract is renewed. In addition, the numerical results are presented by applying the baseline parameter values, although they largely depend on the volatility of the chonsei price.
随着2020年7月修改的《住宅租赁保护法》而引入的房屋租赁续租权,是指在原租赁合同到期后,只有承租人希望续租时,才能续租的权利。本研究提出了国内第一个可以直接评估房屋租赁续租权适当价值的模型。具体而言,本文利用Black-Scholes模型,针对续期权作为看涨期权的特点,提出了一个定价模型。与一般股票期权不同,这些续期权在市场上不单独交易,因此还提出了将续期合同价值包含在总股价中的模式。随后,对该模型进行了扩展和研究,该模型表明,在合同续签时,可以以一定的速度提高总世价格。此外,数值结果是通过应用基线参数值来呈现的,尽管它们在很大程度上取决于chonsei价格的波动。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Management Stability in Private Rental Housing Market 私人租赁住房市场管理稳定性研究
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.2.141
K. Kim, K. Ji, S. Choi, Choi Chang Gyu
This study analyzed the factors affecting the actual residence period of tenants using limited data, based on the recognition that the supply of private rental housing can play an important role in establishing housing stability for the middle-income class. The most important result confirmed by the empirical analysis is that the larger the amount of Jeonse-Deposit, which can be understood as the size of total housing services, the longer the period of residence becomes in the private rental housing markets. From the perspective of private rental housing management, it is understood that an increase in the total rental fee (Jeonse-Deposit) will help bring stability to management because it means an increase in sales volume as far as other conditions are the same. On the other hand, among the same size of total rental fee (Jeonse-Deposit), the higher the proportion of the monthly rent is, the shorter the residence period becomes. The size of the deposit and monthly rent are both related to the creditworthiness of the lessor and the lessee, so it is very important to properly adjust the proportion of monthly rent and deposit. Results of the empirical analysis also show that corporate tenants have longer tenancy than individual tenants, and that as the size of private rental housing increases, the tenancy period decreases.
本研究在认识到私人租赁住房供应对中等收入阶层住房稳定的重要作用的基础上,利用有限的数据分析了影响租户实际居住期限的因素。实证分析证实的最重要的结果是,全租押金(Jeonse-Deposit,可以理解为住房总服务规模)越大,私人租赁住房市场的居住期限越长。据了解,从私人租赁住宅经营的角度来看,在其他条件不变的情况下,提高租赁总费用(全租金)意味着销售量的增加,因此有利于经营的稳定性。相反,在租金总额相同的情况下,月租金所占比例越高,居住时间越短。押金和月租的大小都关系到出租人和承租人的信誉,所以适当调整月租和月租的比例是非常重要的。实证分析的结果还表明,企业租户的租期比个人租户长,并且随着私人租赁住房规模的增加,租期缩短。
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引用次数: 0
How do we understand and apply the unfamiliar ‘financialization of housing’ discussion in Korean context? 在韩国背景下,我们如何理解和应用不熟悉的“住房金融化”讨论?
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.2.161
Kim Soo-hyun
One of the major topics in the world housing academia recently is ‘financialization of housing’. This discussion, which appeared in academia before and after the 2008 global financial crisis, has become one of the mainstream discourses in housing research from around 2015. The recent discussion on financialization of housing has expanded its scope from the issue of risk loans and household debt to the discussion on the concept of housing and capital circulation, the increase of private rents and the problem of multi-homeowners, and the alternative and practical tasks of financialization.This paper introduces the discussion of financialization of housing in the global housing academia, and explores how to understand and apply it in the context of Korea. While studies on housing finance are active in Korea, discussions on financialization of housing, which can be said to be more macroscopic and structural, are very rare. Therefore, along with an in-depth analysis of Korea's housing finance, this paper proposes researches on the relationship between asset disparity and inequality, and discussing asset-based welfare.
“住房金融化”是近年来世界住房学界讨论的热点问题之一。这一讨论在2008年全球金融危机前后出现在学术界,从2015年左右开始成为住房研究的主流话语之一。最近关于住房金融化的讨论,已经从风险贷款和家庭债务的问题,扩大到对住房概念和资金流通、私人租金上涨和多屋问题、金融化的替代性和实践性任务的讨论。本文介绍了全球住房学术界对住房金融化的讨论,并探讨了如何在韩国背景下理解和应用住房金融化。虽然韩国对住房金融的研究很活跃,但对住房金融化的讨论却很少,可以说是更宏观、更结构性的。因此,本文在对韩国住房金融进行深入分析的同时,提出了对资产差距与不平等关系的研究,并对资产福利进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Characteristics and Determinants of Successful Bids on Agricultural Land by Outsiders in Real Estate Auctions 房地产拍卖中外来者中标农用地的特征及影响因素研究
Pub Date : 2022-05-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2022.30.2.29
Geun-Joon Kim, Ro Seung-Han
The speculation of agricultural land by non-farmers in the recent LH Corporation scandal has raised a huge social issue and caused quite a stir. As the price of agricultural land is rising, it is used as a means of increasing property for a capital gain instead of farming, which is clearly confirmed in the percentage of outsiders purchasing agricultural land.Specifying these issues, this study investigates the characteristics of outsiders making a successful bid in agricultural land auctions and checks factors influencing their successful bids in the procedure of a real estate auction as one of the important ways to acquire land. As for methodology, the investigator examined 1,606 items of agricultural land (fields and paddies) that were auctioned off in court in five major areas around the nation between 2013~2017, dividing them according to outsiders and local people based on the addresses of successful bidders and conducting binary logistic regression analysis. The analysis results demonstrate that the percentage of outsiders in the successful bids of agricultural land was very high in real estate auctions and identified characteristic factors (waterfront areas, stake items, and so on) that had impacts on the successful bids of agricultural land by outsiders.
在最近的LH公司事件中,非农民的农地投机行为引发了巨大的社会问题,并引起了不小的轰动。随着农用地价格的上涨,农用地被用作增加财产以获得资本收益的手段,而不是耕作,这在外地人购买农用地的比例中得到了明确的证实。针对这些问题,本研究考察了外地人在农用地拍卖中中标的特点,并分析了影响外地人在房地产拍卖中中标的因素,房地产拍卖是获得土地的重要途径之一。方法方面,调查人员以2013~2017年在全国5个主要地区法院拍卖的1606件农地(田、水田)为对象,根据中标者的地址,按照外地人和当地居民划分,进行了二元逻辑回归分析。分析结果表明,在房地产拍卖中,外地人在农用地中标中所占的比例非常高,并确定了影响农用地中标的特征因素(滨水区、股权项目等)。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies
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