Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-113-2-128-149
V. Salnikov, S. Polyakova, А. Ullman, A. Kauazov, M. Tursumbayeva, D. Kisebayev, D. Miskiv, E. Beldeubayev, G. Musralinova, S. Kozhagulov
The main approaches and methods of studying the characteristics and conditions of atmospheric pollution on the example of Western Kazakhstan are considered. The classification and grouping of applied approaches by topics, methods, time intervals and other relevant criteria was conducted. An analysis of the available information on the sources and volumes of emissions into the atmosphere, as well as on the systems for monitoring the pollution of the air basin, was carried out. It is shown that to increase the effectiveness of the atmospheric air quality management system, it is expedient to use a complex approach taking into account the influence of meteorological factors and synoptic conditions that determine different levels of pollution. An analytical review of modern methods of modeling the spread of pollutants in atmospheric air showed the feasibility of using statistical methods integrated with deep machine learning and the Eulerian continuum model of turbulent diffusion. The obtained conclusions will allow further use of an integrated approach to improve the atmospheric air quality management system of the studied region.
{"title":"AIR QUALITY MONITORING IN THE WEST KAZAKHSTAN REGION: PRINCIPLES, METHODS, APPROACHES","authors":"V. Salnikov, S. Polyakova, А. Ullman, A. Kauazov, M. Tursumbayeva, D. Kisebayev, D. Miskiv, E. Beldeubayev, G. Musralinova, S. Kozhagulov","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-113-2-128-149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-113-2-128-149","url":null,"abstract":"The main approaches and methods of studying the characteristics and conditions of atmospheric pollution on the example of Western Kazakhstan are considered. The classification and grouping of applied approaches by topics, methods, time intervals and other relevant criteria was conducted. An analysis of the available information on the sources and volumes of emissions into the atmosphere, as well as on the systems for monitoring the pollution of the air basin, was carried out. It is shown that to increase the effectiveness of the atmospheric air quality management system, it is expedient to use a complex approach taking into account the influence of meteorological factors and synoptic conditions that determine different levels of pollution. An analytical review of modern methods of modeling the spread of pollutants in atmospheric air showed the feasibility of using statistical methods integrated with deep machine learning and the Eulerian continuum model of turbulent diffusion. The obtained conclusions will allow further use of an integrated approach to improve the atmospheric air quality management system of the studied region.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":"49 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141808872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-24DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-113-2-67-80
K. Abramov, Y. Kuchin, E. Mukhamedieva, N. Yunicheva
The determination of technological acidification zones in uranium deposits during leaching is necessary for precise control and optimization of the uranium extraction process. Incorrect determination of the technological acidification zone can lead to excessive use of acidic reagents, which not only increases costs, but also can cause undesirable environmental consequences. The paper proposes an approach to solving issues related to the manual determination of zones of technological acidification in uranium deposits in Kazakhstan. The approach includes the study of machine learning algorithms to automate the identification of these critical areas. The use of artificial neural network (ANN) models and the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) model has shown its effectiveness in automating and improving the identification of these important zones during the mining of uranium deposits by underground borehole leaching. Thus, the accuracy of acidification intervals according to the F1-score metric for the ANN model is 0,75, and for the XGB model it is 0,80.
在浸出过程中确定铀矿床的工艺酸化区对于精确控制和优化铀提取工艺非常必要。工艺酸化区的不正确确定会导致酸性试剂的过度使用，这不仅会增加成本，还会造成不良的环境后果。本文提出了一种方法来解决人工确定哈萨克斯坦铀矿床技术酸化区的相关问题。该方法包括研究机器学习算法，以自动识别这些关键区域。人工神经网络（ANN）模型和极端梯度提升（XGB）模型的使用表明，在通过地下钻孔沥滤法开采铀矿床期间，其在自动识别和改进这些重要区域的识别方面非常有效。因此，根据 F1 分数指标，ANN 模型的酸化区间准确度为 0.75，XGB 模型的准确度为 0.80。
{"title":"DETERMINATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL OXIDATION ZONES AT URANIUM DEPOSITS IN KAZAKHSTAN USING MACHINE LEARNING METHODS MACHINE LEARNING","authors":"K. Abramov, Y. Kuchin, E. Mukhamedieva, N. Yunicheva","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-113-2-67-80","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-113-2-67-80","url":null,"abstract":"The determination of technological acidification zones in uranium deposits during leaching is necessary for precise control and optimization of the uranium extraction process. Incorrect determination of the technological acidification zone can lead to excessive use of acidic reagents, which not only increases costs, but also can cause undesirable environmental consequences. The paper proposes an approach to solving issues related to the manual determination of zones of technological acidification in uranium deposits in Kazakhstan. The approach includes the study of machine learning algorithms to automate the identification of these critical areas. The use of artificial neural network (ANN) models and the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) model has shown its effectiveness in automating and improving the identification of these important zones during the mining of uranium deposits by underground borehole leaching. Thus, the accuracy of acidification intervals according to the F1-score metric for the ANN model is 0,75, and for the XGB model it is 0,80.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":"16 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141809246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-19DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-133-143
Zhanar O. Ozgeldinova, Altyn A. Zhanguzhina, Zhandos Mukaev, Meruert Ulykpanova, Zharas Berdenov
During the scientific investigation, woody species of forest vegetation were identified and a map of forest vegetation in the Kostanay region was produced using various data sources: field materials, Earth remote sensing data, and ArcGIS10.9 software. An algorithm was developed to detect tree species based on Landsat 9 satellite imagery, characterized by high spatial resolution. Recognition of dominant tree species was performed using various combinations of spectral bands from Landsat 9 imagery, analysis of vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI) across different seasons, and supervised local adaptive classification. The obtained data were validated against field research materials (August-September 2023) and forest management records. The chosen algorithm implements contemporary approaches to acquiring and processing necessary data from satellite remote sensing imagery. Further differentiation and creation of the forest vegetation map of the Kostanay region were based on the established map of tree species, digital elevation model, geological-geomorphological features, field research, thematic maps, and physical geography of the region. As a result of the conducted research, six classes of forest stands were delineated in the Kostanay region, including light-coniferous and deciduous tree species such as pine, birch, aspen, larch, shrubbery, and meadow vegetation. These research findings and the algorithm developed can be applied to other study areas and hold practical significance.
{"title":"DETERMINING THE SPECIES COMPOSITION OF FOREST VEGETATION IN THE KOSTANAY REGION USING REMOTE SENSING DATA","authors":"Zhanar O. Ozgeldinova, Altyn A. Zhanguzhina, Zhandos Mukaev, Meruert Ulykpanova, Zharas Berdenov","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-133-143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-133-143","url":null,"abstract":"During the scientific investigation, woody species of forest vegetation were identified and a map of forest vegetation in the Kostanay region was produced using various data sources: field materials, Earth remote sensing data, and ArcGIS10.9 software. An algorithm was developed to detect tree species based on Landsat 9 satellite imagery, characterized by high spatial resolution. Recognition of dominant tree species was performed using various combinations of spectral bands from Landsat 9 imagery, analysis of vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI) across different seasons, and supervised local adaptive classification. The obtained data were validated against field research materials (August-September 2023) and forest management records. The chosen algorithm implements contemporary approaches to acquiring and processing necessary data from satellite remote sensing imagery. Further differentiation and creation of the forest vegetation map of the Kostanay region were based on the established map of tree species, digital elevation model, geological-geomorphological features, field research, thematic maps, and physical geography of the region. As a result of the conducted research, six classes of forest stands were delineated in the Kostanay region, including light-coniferous and deciduous tree species such as pine, birch, aspen, larch, shrubbery, and meadow vegetation. These research findings and the algorithm developed can be applied to other study areas and hold practical significance.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 385","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140682442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-19DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-54-64
Alexander Cherednichenko, Vladimir Cherednichenko, Inkar Ashim
The climatic potential of the north-west of the Republic of Kazakhstan and its dynamics for the period until 2050 in connection with climate change are assessed. For the analysis, data from four meteorological stations in the Aktobe region and one in the West Kazakhstan region were used. The region is characterized by high summer and fairly low winter temperatures. The amount of precipitation, 180...295 mm/year, is not enough for sustainable rainfed agriculture, however, with the presence of irrigation, successful cultivation of a wide range of crops is possible. The region’s territory is used mainly for pastures. Our modeled expected changes in temperature and precipitation by decades for the period up to 2050 show that we should expect a further increase in temperature about 0.4 °C per decade and some increase in precipitation by 2...4 mm / decade, which does not compensate, however, evaporation costs.
{"title":"DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE PARAMETERS IN THE NORTHWEST REGION OF KAZAKHSTAN","authors":"Alexander Cherednichenko, Vladimir Cherednichenko, Inkar Ashim","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-54-64","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-54-64","url":null,"abstract":"The climatic potential of the north-west of the Republic of Kazakhstan and its dynamics for the period until 2050 in connection with climate change are assessed. For the analysis, data from four meteorological stations in the Aktobe region and one in the West Kazakhstan region were used. The region is characterized by high summer and fairly low winter temperatures. The amount of precipitation, 180...295 mm/year, is not enough for sustainable rainfed agriculture, however, with the presence of irrigation, successful cultivation of a wide range of crops is possible. The region’s territory is used mainly for pastures. Our modeled expected changes in temperature and precipitation by decades for the period up to 2050 show that we should expect a further increase in temperature about 0.4 °C per decade and some increase in precipitation by 2...4 mm / decade, which does not compensate, however, evaporation costs.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140685688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Snow avalanches affect human economic and recreational activities in the mountains. In some avalanche-active winters, they cause significant damage and loss of life. As a result of many years of research, it was found that avalanches strongly depend on the meteorological and synoptic conditions of each individual winter. The main indicator of the danger of the current season is the total and maximum volumes of avalanches in a particular river basin. It strongly depends on the height and water content of the snow cover and the amount of precipitation. The correlation coefficients are 0.36...0.66. In some avalanche-prone winters (1965...66, 1986...87, 2016...17) in the river basin. In Kishi Almaty, the total volume of avalanches reaches 300...500 thousand m3, and in non-avalanche-hazardous winters it does not exceed 20...30 thousand m3. During the years of minimal solar and cyclonic activity in the studied avalanche basin, the highest snow cover heights and avalanche activity are observed. This is probably due to the fact that winter cyclones produce precipitation in the foothill areas in cold years. And the increase in snowfall and avalanche activity is more associated with spring warming and the beginning of snow melting. Studying the meteorological conditions of avalanche formation helps assess the potential danger of the current season. This is of practical importance for planning the work of tourist sites and operational rescue services in the mountains.
{"title":"TYPICATION OF WINTER IN ILE ALATAU BY SNOW CONDITION AND AVALANCHE ACTIVITY","authors":"Vitaly Zhdanov, Nuraily Kuzhageldina, Kamalbekova Aidana, Aldabergen Ulzhan","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-89-99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-89-99","url":null,"abstract":"Snow avalanches affect human economic and recreational activities in the mountains. In some avalanche-active winters, they cause significant damage and loss of life. As a result of many years of research, it was found that avalanches strongly depend on the meteorological and synoptic conditions of each individual winter. The main indicator of the danger of the current season is the total and maximum volumes of avalanches in a particular river basin. It strongly depends on the height and water content of the snow cover and the amount of precipitation. The correlation coefficients are 0.36...0.66. In some avalanche-prone winters (1965...66, 1986...87, 2016...17) in the river basin. In Kishi Almaty, the total volume of avalanches reaches 300...500 thousand m3, and in non-avalanche-hazardous winters it does not exceed 20...30 thousand m3. During the years of minimal solar and cyclonic activity in the studied avalanche basin, the highest snow cover heights and avalanche activity are observed. This is probably due to the fact that winter cyclones produce precipitation in the foothill areas in cold years. And the increase in snowfall and avalanche activity is more associated with spring warming and the beginning of snow melting. Studying the meteorological conditions of avalanche formation helps assess the potential danger of the current season. This is of practical importance for planning the work of tourist sites and operational rescue services in the mountains.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 35","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140685285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-19DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-47-53
A. Koshurnikov, V. Gagarin, Denis Frolov, G. Rzhanitsyn
The paper presents meteorological features in Moscow in the fall of 2023 and the first results of drilling and constructing a thermometric well in an open area without snow and vegetation cover at the Moscow State University meteorological observatory through the extraction of core samples from the well. Information is given on the moisture content, thermal conductivity and heat capacity of the soil, as well as the freezing temperature of the soil. Information is also provided on soil thermometry and the depth of seasonal freezing. All materials for thermophysical modeling of soil temperature have been collected and prepared
{"title":"DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMOMETRIC WELL ON A SITE WITHOUT SNOW AND VEGETATION COVER OF THE MSU METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATORY","authors":"A. Koshurnikov, V. Gagarin, Denis Frolov, G. Rzhanitsyn","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-47-53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-47-53","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents meteorological features in Moscow in the fall of 2023 and the first results of drilling and constructing a thermometric well in an open area without snow and vegetation cover at the Moscow State University meteorological observatory through the extraction of core samples from the well. Information is given on the moisture content, thermal conductivity and heat capacity of the soil, as well as the freezing temperature of the soil. Information is also provided on soil thermometry and the depth of seasonal freezing. All materials for thermophysical modeling of soil temperature have been collected and prepared","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 533","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140682589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-19DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-161-168
S. Alimkulov, A. Myrzakhmetov
This article discusses the structure and content of the passport of the rivers of Kazakhstan, which is based on the accounting of the main morphometric and morphological features of natural watercourses and their catchment basins. These features reflect the hydrographic characteristics, the definition of which is part of the task of mapping hydrological processes. Over time, the surface of river catchments undergoes changes due to a number of natural causes and anthropogenic activity, which accordingly changes the values of their morphometric characteristics. In this regard, dynamic characteristics need to be updated when there have been changes in water bodies or their catchments, which, when calculating hydrological characteristics, affect their accuracy. In this paper, the structure of the passport of the rivers of Kazakhstan is considered, which is a reference material, which combines information on rivers and temporary watercourses throughout the territories of Kazakhstan on water basins. In addition, it includes all natural watercourses with a length of more than 10 km and studied rivers with a length of less than 10 km. The certification of rivers is the first step, since the development of the form of passports of water bodies in the Republic of Kazakhstan is being carried out for the first time.
{"title":"PASSPORT OF THE RIVERS OF KAZAKHSTAN","authors":"S. Alimkulov, A. Myrzakhmetov","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-161-168","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-161-168","url":null,"abstract":"This article discusses the structure and content of the passport of the rivers of Kazakhstan, which is based on the accounting of the main morphometric and morphological features of natural watercourses and their catchment basins. These features reflect the hydrographic characteristics, the definition of which is part of the task of mapping hydrological processes. Over time, the surface of river catchments undergoes changes due to a number of natural causes and anthropogenic activity, which accordingly changes the values of their morphometric characteristics. In this regard, dynamic characteristics need to be updated when there have been changes in water bodies or their catchments, which, when calculating hydrological characteristics, affect their accuracy. In this paper, the structure of the passport of the rivers of Kazakhstan is considered, which is a reference material, which combines information on rivers and temporary watercourses throughout the territories of Kazakhstan on water basins. In addition, it includes all natural watercourses with a length of more than 10 km and studied rivers with a length of less than 10 km. The certification of rivers is the first step, since the development of the form of passports of water bodies in the Republic of Kazakhstan is being carried out for the first time.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 22","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140685757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of the article is to analyze the dynamics of air temperature, one of the most obvious indicators of climate change, and to determine the long-term trends of air temperature change in Kyzylorda region. Kyzylorda region is located in the south-west of Kazakhstan, is characterized by arid climate and belongs to the zone of ecological disaster. In this paper, the authors studied the changes in air temperature in the period from 1961 to 2020 based on the nonparametric statistical method of Mann–Kendall. The Mann-Kendall method is used to determine whether there is a monotonic trend in the studied data. The Mann–Kendall test is aimed at increasing the accuracy of the result of time series estimation and allows to determine the presence of a trend. The obtained results are characterized by a significant change in temperature in time series of Kyzylorda region. It is noted that for the selected period, to assess changes in the criterion Sen, the average annual temperature changes increased by 0.02...0.05°C. Seasonal trends showed an increase in average temperatures during the year, and the summer months significantly contributed to the warming observed in Kyzylorda region. The obtained data can serve as a basis for assessing both regional climate change and for assessing the ecological state, as meteorological parameters, namely air temperature is one of the important indicators in the study of atmospheric air pollution in Kyzylorda region.
{"title":"AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN KYZYLORDA REGION OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE PERIOD 1961...2020","authors":"Nazerke Abdolla, Ayman Nysanbayeva, Aizharyk Abdirazak","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-65-78","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-65-78","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the article is to analyze the dynamics of air temperature, one of the most obvious indicators of climate change, and to determine the long-term trends of air temperature change in Kyzylorda region. Kyzylorda region is located in the south-west of Kazakhstan, is characterized by arid climate and belongs to the zone of ecological disaster. In this paper, the authors studied the changes in air temperature in the period from 1961 to 2020 based on the nonparametric statistical method of Mann–Kendall. The Mann-Kendall method is used to determine whether there is a monotonic trend in the studied data. The Mann–Kendall test is aimed at increasing the accuracy of the result of time series estimation and allows to determine the presence of a trend. The obtained results are characterized by a significant change in temperature in time series of Kyzylorda region. It is noted that for the selected period, to assess changes in the criterion Sen, the average annual temperature changes increased by 0.02...0.05°C. Seasonal trends showed an increase in average temperatures during the year, and the summer months significantly contributed to the warming observed in Kyzylorda region. The obtained data can serve as a basis for assessing both regional climate change and for assessing the ecological state, as meteorological parameters, namely air temperature is one of the important indicators in the study of atmospheric air pollution in Kyzylorda region.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 43","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140685767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-19DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-16-25
Alexey Babkin, Vladimir Babkin, Azamat Madibekov, A. Mussakulkyzy, Alexander Cherednichenko
The study is devoted to the development and application of autocorrelation and general regression models for long-term forecasting of the Ural (Zhaiyk) River flow based on the analysis of multi-year fluctuations. The Ural River is an important water resource of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan, demonstrating significant variability in annual runoff, which affects various sectors of economic activity. In the course of the study, annual and monthly series of the river flow for the period from 1943 to 2010 were estimated using the autocorrelation method of Y.M. Alekhin. Based on these data, forecasts were made for the period from 2011 to 2015. The results show that autocorrelation models provide more accurate forecasts compared to models based on average values of series. The general regression model integrating monthly and annual data showed the best results, confirming the effectiveness of the combined approach in predicting hydrological characteristics. The scientific significance of the work is to improve the accuracy and reliability of the Ural River flow forecasts, which contributes to more effective water resources management in this region.
{"title":"FORECASTS OF ANNUAL RUNOFF OF THE ZHAIYK RIVER (URAL) TAKING INTO ACCOUNT AUTOCORRELATION MODELS OF ITS MULTI-YEAR FLUCTUATIONS FOR INDIVIDUAL MONTHS","authors":"Alexey Babkin, Vladimir Babkin, Azamat Madibekov, A. Mussakulkyzy, Alexander Cherednichenko","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-16-25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-16-25","url":null,"abstract":"The study is devoted to the development and application of autocorrelation and general regression models for long-term forecasting of the Ural (Zhaiyk) River flow based on the analysis of multi-year fluctuations. The Ural River is an important water resource of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan, demonstrating significant variability in annual runoff, which affects various sectors of economic activity. In the course of the study, annual and monthly series of the river flow for the period from 1943 to 2010 were estimated using the autocorrelation method of Y.M. Alekhin. Based on these data, forecasts were made for the period from 2011 to 2015. The results show that autocorrelation models provide more accurate forecasts compared to models based on average values of series. The general regression model integrating monthly and annual data showed the best results, confirming the effectiveness of the combined approach in predicting hydrological characteristics. The scientific significance of the work is to improve the accuracy and reliability of the Ural River flow forecasts, which contributes to more effective water resources management in this region.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140683053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-19DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-110-120
Zhandos Mukaev, Zhanar O. Ozgeldinova, Altyn A. Zhanguzhina, Meruert Ulykpanova
The purpose of the study is a geoecological evaluation of the influence of recreational actions and of tourism on the characteristics of superficial waters in the recreational zone of Lake Alakol in the Abay region. Geoecological assessment of the quality of surface water in the recreational zone of the above-mentioned lake is important in the number of vacationers in recent years and the increasing intensity of recreational use. The article examines issues regarding the compound of heavy metals and other harmful metals and connections in the superficial waters of the recreational area of the above-mentioned lake. Data were obtained on the connections metals, nutrients and organic substances in the superficial waters of the recreational zone of the above-mentioned lake. The hydrochemical content of the water in the recreational zone of Lake Alakol was studied and analyzed and a comparative specification of the structure of contaminant in superficial waters was materialized out.
{"title":"GEOECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF SURFACE WATER QUALITY IN THE RECREATIONAL ZONE OF LAKE ALAKOL","authors":"Zhandos Mukaev, Zhanar O. Ozgeldinova, Altyn A. Zhanguzhina, Meruert Ulykpanova","doi":"10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-110-120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.54668/2789-6323-2024-112-1-110-120","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is a geoecological evaluation of the influence of recreational actions and of tourism on the characteristics of superficial waters in the recreational zone of Lake Alakol in the Abay region. Geoecological assessment of the quality of surface water in the recreational zone of the above-mentioned lake is important in the number of vacationers in recent years and the increasing intensity of recreational use. The article examines issues regarding the compound of heavy metals and other harmful metals and connections in the superficial waters of the recreational area of the above-mentioned lake. Data were obtained on the connections metals, nutrients and organic substances in the superficial waters of the recreational zone of the above-mentioned lake. The hydrochemical content of the water in the recreational zone of Lake Alakol was studied and analyzed and a comparative specification of the structure of contaminant in superficial waters was materialized out.","PeriodicalId":256870,"journal":{"name":"Hydrometeorology and ecology","volume":" 88","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140683641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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