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CIRCULATION FEATURES OF PRECIPITATION FORMATION IN WINTER IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF KAZAKHSTAN IN THE CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE WARMING 气候变暖条件下哈萨克斯坦北部和南部冬季降水形成的环流特征
Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2022-104-1-31-39
V. Voyevodina, G. Turulina, S. Polyakova
The article considers the climatic parameters (precipitation and air temperature) that determine snowy and little snowy winters for the period from December to February of 1971 to 2020 years in the south of Kazakhstan. Graphs of the temporal course of atmospheric precipitation and air temperature for the study area were constructed and analyzed. The main statistical characteristics of atmospheric precipitation are calculated. A catalog of major precipitation anomalies (excess, deficit and norm) for the territory of South Kazakhstan has been compiled. A catalog of snowy warm and little snowy cold winters is presented based on the use of the complex criterion W for the study area. The circulation conditions for the formation of snowy and little snowy winters in the south of Kazakhstan are revealed by analyzing the Wangenheim-Girs circulation forms, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Blinova indices.
本文考虑了1971年至2020年12月至2月期间哈萨克斯坦南部多雪和少雪冬季的气候参数(降水和气温)。构建了研究区大气降水和气温的时间过程图,并进行了分析。计算了大气降水的主要统计特征。编制了南哈萨克斯坦境内主要降水异常(过量、不足和正常)的目录。基于复杂准则W,给出了研究区暖冬多雪和寒冬少雪的目录。通过对Wangenheim-Girs环流形式、北大西洋涛动和Blinova指数的分析,揭示了哈萨克斯坦南部多雪和少雪冬季形成的环流条件。
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引用次数: 0
RUNOFF DYNAMICS OF THE IRTYSH RIVER UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE 气候变化条件下的长江口河流径流动态
Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2022-104-1-65-82
A. Cherednichenko, V. Cherednichenko, D. Burlibaeva, A. Uysinbay, D. Kisebaev
The climatic dynamics of temperature and humidity in the region of Kazakhstan Altai and its influence on the runoff of the Irtysh (Ertys) river are considered. It is shown that climatic changes in the region generally reflect such changes in the territory of Kazakhstan, however, there are a number of features, consisting in the degree of severity of extremes and some of their delay in relation to central Kazakhstan. Surface runoff follows the dynamics of precipitation and temperature in the area of its formation. The time course of the runoff in the upper and middle reaches of the Irtysh is significantly different, which is the result of the influence of economic activity, as a result of which part of it is irretrievably taken. It has proven difficult to quantify runoff loss. A forecast is made of expected changes in runoff under the influence of climate change.
研究了哈萨克斯坦阿尔泰地区温湿度的气候动态及其对额尔齐斯河径流的影响。报告显示,该地区的气候变化一般反映了哈萨克斯坦境内的这种变化,但是,有一些特点,包括极端情况的严重程度和相对于哈萨克斯坦中部的一些延迟。地表径流遵循其形成地区降水和温度的动态变化。额尔齐斯河中上游径流的时间过程差异显著,这是经济活动影响的结果,部分径流被不可挽回地占用。事实证明,很难量化径流损失。对气候变化影响下径流的预期变化进行了预报。
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引用次数: 0
CHARACTERISTICS OF FOGS IN THE KAZAKHSTAN SECTOR OF THE CASPIAN SEA 里海哈萨克斯坦地区雾的特征
Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2022-104-1-9-16
Zhanar Naurozbayeva, G. Shishkina
In the research work, a statistical analysis of the fogs’ repeatability in the Kazakhstan sector of the Caspian Sea, continuous duration, wind speed and direction, relative humidity was carried out. Operational data of observations from the following stations were used: isl. Kulaly, Fort-Shevchenko, Aktau and Tushchibek. The research period was from 1970 till 2020. Statistical analysis made it possible to identify the highest frequency of occurrence by seasons, half-years, to estimate the continuous duration of fogs depending on the time of the year and the location of the observation point. The maximum duration of the phenomenon and the accompanying meteorological conditions are also noted. A comparative analysis of the Fort-Shevchenko and Aktau stations was carried out. This made it possible to highlight excellent areas of wind direction with the appearance of fogs. This is a consequence of different baro-circulation conditions for the formation of the phenomenon. In the conclusion of the work, that the highest frequency of fogs on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea is observed in the transitional seasons of the year, with the exception of Aktau station, which is located much farther south of the other stations. The longest continuous duration of fogs at the stations of Fort-Shevchenko, isl. Kulaly and Tushchibek are recorded in winter, up to 6...8 days. At Aktau station up to 6...8 days in the warm half of the year. Duration more than 60 hours on isl. Kulaly is celebrated during the cold season; the maximum duration in Aktau and Tushchibek in recent decades is significantly less than at other stations; a comparative analysis revealed that in Aktau the highest frequency of occurrence is in the western and eastern sectors, and in Fort Shevchenko in the northern.
在研究工作中,对里海哈萨克斯坦地区雾的可重复性、持续时间、风速和风向、相对湿度进行了统计分析。使用了下列站点的观测业务数据:isl。库拉利,舍甫琴科堡,阿克套和图什奇别克。研究时间为1970年至2020年。通过统计分析,可以按季节、半年确定雾的最高发生频率,并根据一年中的时间和观测点的位置估计雾的持续时间。该现象的最长持续时间和伴随的气象条件也被记录下来。对舍甫琴科堡站和阿克套站进行了比较分析。这使得突出风向的优秀区域与雾的外观成为可能。这是形成该现象的不同气压环流条件的结果。在这项工作的结论中,除了阿克套站外,里海东部海岸的雾出现频率最高的是在一年中的过渡季节,阿克套站位于其他站的南部更远的地方。在舍甫琴科堡的气象站,雾的持续时间最长。Kulaly和Tushchibek在冬季有记录,高达6…8天。在阿克套站到6点…一年中温暖的半年有8天。在岛上停留时间超过60小时。Kulaly在寒冷的季节庆祝;近几十年来阿克套和图什奇别克的最大持续时间明显短于其他监测站;一项比较分析显示,在阿克套,发生频率最高的是西部和东部地区,而在北部的舍甫琴科堡。
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引用次数: 0
FORECASTING OF THE MAIN ELEMENTS OF THE FLOOD WATER 预测洪水的主要要素
Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2022-104-1-95-102
M. Moldakhmetov, L. Makhmudova, G. Kambarbekov, M. Zhulkainarova
The article substantiates that the process of implementing flood monitoring and forecasting will optimize the process of preparing for the onset of high water, determining the composition, deadlines and other features of preventive measures for timely and prompt notification of the population about the risk of flooding of the territory. The scientific study presents the results of forecasting the volume of spring flood runoff using regression analysis. The predicted values calculated using correlation and regression analysis of multidimensional data (multiple regression equation) showed fairly close values with the actually observed values, with a satisfactory correlation over a long-term period (R=0,76 for Yesil – Turgen; R=0,72 for Yesil – Nur-Sultan). The conclusion is made that the most simple methods of analysis and prediction of runoff are used in terms of the quality of the forecast information provided are not inferior to the forecasts obtained using complex physically based models.
文章证实,实施洪水监测和预报的过程将优化为高水位的到来做准备的过程,确定预防措施的组成、最后期限和其他特征,以便及时和迅速地向人民通报领土的洪水风险。科学地介绍了用回归分析预测春洪径流量的结果。利用多维数据的相关和回归分析(多元回归方程)计算出的预测值与实际观测值相当接近,在长期内具有令人满意的相关性(Yesil - Turgen的R= 0.76;Yesil - nurr - sultan的R=0,72)。结果表明,采用最简单的径流分析预测方法所提供的预报信息质量不低于采用复杂的物理模型所获得的预报结果。
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引用次数: 0
VISUALIZING THE CHANGE OF THE CASPIAN CASTLINE 想象里海线的变化
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2021-102-3-63-67
N. Mamayeva, M. Gede
The purpose of this work is to present the sea level data of the Caspian Sea, through a web browser with an interactive approach. Caspian Sea Level has undergone significant fluctuations over the last century. In this project, we tried to reconstruct the long-term changes in Caspian Sea Level for the period from 1900 to 2018 and show forecasts up to 2050. As a supplement to the main goal, an animated video of the Caspian Sea Level changes was recorded and uploaded on the webpage.
这项工作的目的是通过一个具有交互式方法的网络浏览器呈现里海的海平面数据。里海海平面在上个世纪经历了巨大的波动。在这个项目中,我们试图重建1900年至2018年期间里海海平面的长期变化,并显示到2050年的预测。作为主要目标的补充,录制了里海海平面变化的动画视频并上传到网页上。
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引用次数: 1
STUDY OF SNOW COVER IN THE TERRITORY OF THE ZHAIYK RIVER BASIN 扎伊克河流域境内积雪研究
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2021-103-4-29-37
B.T. Zhezdibaeva, A.T. Mamytova
The paper studies of the snow cover on the territory of the Zhaiyk river basin, which includes the following natural landscape zones: Mugodzhar Mountains, the Ural plateau, the Caspian lowland. The main task of this work is to determine the spatial variability of snow cover characteristics (snow cover height, snow water supply) and their temporal changes in the Zhaiyk River basin. The main source of studying the snow cover is the materials of direct observations on the hydrometeorological network of weather stations. Data on snow cover are taken from 1977 to 2020. The initial materials used were the dates of establishment and descent of a stable snow cover, the height of the snow on a constant rail, the density and water supply in the snow at 23 meteorological stations. According to the data for the last 40 years for the territory of the Zhaiyk river basin, it was found out that the dates of formation and destruction of the snow cover shifted in one direction, and the number of days with snow cover and the height of the snow cover did not change significantly.
本文研究了扎伊克河流域境内的积雪,包括以下自然景观带:Mugodzhar山脉,乌拉尔高原,里海低地。本文的主要任务是确定寨伊克河流域积雪特征(积雪高度、雪水量)的空间变异性及其时间变化。积雪研究的主要资料来源是气象站水文气象网的直接观测资料。积雪数据取自1977年至2020年。最初使用的资料是稳定积雪的建立和下降日期、固定轨道上的积雪高度、23个气象站的雪密度和水供应。根据扎伊克河流域近40年的数据,发现该流域积雪形成和破坏的时间呈一个方向移动,积雪日数和积雪高度变化不显著。
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引用次数: 0
DATA RECOVERY OF ANNUAL RIVER RUNOFF IN THE SYRDARYA RIVER BASIN 锡尔达里亚河流域年径流量数据恢复
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2021-100-1-17-26
T. Kazakbayeva
The data recovery of the annual runoff was carried out and correlation dependences were obtained, which were used to calculate the runoff rate for each of the selected rivers in the Syrdariya river basin. Differential integral curves were constructed from the runoff data using the variability index. When restoring the missing data on the annual runoff, the river-analogue method was applied. The actual series of observations are given for a longterm period. The base period was chosen from 1960 to 2015. Quantitative estimates of the effectiveness of bringing the average values to a multi-year period are also provided.
对年径流量数据进行恢复,得到相关依赖关系,利用相关依赖关系计算出锡尔达里亚河流域各河流的径流量。利用变异指数构造了径流数据的微分积分曲线。在恢复年径流缺失数据时,采用河流模拟方法。实际的一系列观测是长期的。基期为1960年至2015年。还提供了将平均值纳入多年期的有效性的数量估计。
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引用次数: 0
STUDY OF THE MAIN CHARACTERISTICS AND INTRA-ANNUAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE WATER FLOW OF THE RIVERS OF THE TERRITORY ALMATY CITY 阿拉木图市境内河流流量的主要特征及年内分布研究
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2021-102-3-44-62
A. Chigrinets, K. K. Duskaev, А.А. Satmurzayev, А.Е. Insigenova, Zh.T. Salavatova
The article is devoted to the study of the flow of the rivers of the metropolis of Almaty. Small rivers of Almaty attract more and more attention every year, as their water resources are widely used for household and drinking needs, irrigation, energy, and for other purposes. The health and well-being of the population depends on their water content. The article analyzes in detail the conditions for the formation of the water flow of rivers crossing the urbanized territory of Almaty, climatic characteristics affecting the flow. The description of the methodology and the results of calculating the characteristics of the average annual water flow and intra-annual flow distribution are given. Changes in the characteristics of river flow caused by climatic factors of recent decades are estimated.
这篇文章致力于研究阿拉木图大都市的河流流量。阿拉木图的小河每年都受到越来越多的关注,因为它的水资源被广泛用于家庭和饮用需求、灌溉、能源和其他目的。人口的健康和福祉取决于他们的含水量。文章详细分析了阿拉木图城市化地区河流水流量的形成条件和影响水流量的气候特征。给出了计算年平均流量和年内流量分布特征的方法和结果。估计了近几十年来气候因素引起的河流流量特征的变化。
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引用次数: 0
THE DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC AIR QUALITY IN UST-KAMENOGORSK FOR THE PERIOD 2009...2019 2009 ~ 2019年ust-kamenogorsk大气质量动态评价
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2021-101-2-33-39
A.A. Kabdykadyrov, G. Mukanova, M. Dauletbaeva, N. Voronova
The article analyzes the dynamics of the content of the main pollutants in the atmosphere of Ust- Kamenogorsk for the period 2009...2019. Based on the results of the analysis of the dynamics of atmospheric air quality, it is concluded that during the time course of the study period, the average monthly concentrations of sulfur dioxide and formaldehyde in the surface layer of the atmosphere have increased, and cases with high atmospheric pollution according to MPC of hydrogen sulfide have become more frequent in the last 2...3 years. The practical significance of the results obtained can be used in the preparation, planning and practical implementation of comprehensive programs for improving the urban environment, as well as used for further regional assessment of the ecological state of the atmosphere.
本文分析了2009 ~ 2019年乌斯特-卡梅诺戈尔斯克大气中主要污染物含量的动态变化。大气质量动态分析结果表明,在研究期间,大气表层二氧化硫和甲醛的月平均浓度有所增加,根据硫化氢MPC计算的大气高污染病例在近20年来有所增加。3年。所得结果的现实意义可用于城市环境综合整治方案的编制、规划和实际实施,也可用于进一步的区域大气生态状况评价。
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引用次数: 0
ASSESSMENT OF THE QUALITY OF THE LAKE KOPA OF THE CITY OF KOKSHETAU BY HYDROCHEMICAL INDICATORS 用水化学指标评价科克谢陶市科帕湖水质
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.54668/2789-6323-2021-102-3-74-79
A. Sadvokasova, I. Fakhrudenova, T.S. Karnaukhova, R.M. Contrastinova
This article provides a brief description of the Kopa Lake in the Akmola region. The results of the study of the ecological state of the water body for 2018...2020 are presented. The analysis of the hydrochemical regime of water is carried out, the index of water pollution is determined. According to the data we received, the reservoir is exceeding the MPC in some indicators.
本文简要介绍了阿克莫拉地区的科帕湖。2018年水体生态状况研究结果…2020年是呈现。对水体的水化学状况进行了分析,确定了水体污染指标。根据我们收到的数据,储层在一些指标上超过了MPC。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Hydrometeorology and ecology
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