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2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)最新文献

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Prediction of current in a substation in order to schedule thermography 预测变电站的电流,以便安排热成像
Per Westerlund, P. Hilber, T. Lindquist
It is important to predict the current in a line in the electrical grid for example when planning thermography or handling dynamic rating. This paper takes data from a Swedish substation from 10 years and applies analysis of variance (ANOVA) to construct a linear model. The factors are the time of the day, the day of the week and the week number. About two thirds of the variance in the data can be explained by the model, but the means are too low to attain a current of at least one third of the current for which the equipment is rated. Thus the model is not good enough to plan thermography for the studied bay in the substation. However the model is able to predict the current and can also be used to predict power flows in the electric network.
在规划热成像或处理动态额定值时,预测电网线路中的电流是很重要的。本文选取瑞典某变电站10年的数据,运用方差分析(ANOVA)建立线性模型。因子是一天中的时间,一周中的哪一天和周数。数据中大约三分之二的差异可以用模型来解释,但方法太低,无法达到设备额定电流的至少三分之一。因此,该模型不能很好地为所研究的变电所进行热成像规划。然而,该模型能够预测电流,也可用于预测电网中的潮流。
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引用次数: 1
Net transfer capacity assessment using point estimate method for probabilistic power flow 基于点估计法的概率潮流净输电容量评估
F. Adinolfi, S. Massucco, M. Saviozzi, F. Silvestro, E. Ciapessoni, D. Cirio, A. Pitto
Nowadays the management of interconnected transmission systems requires security assessment methods able to consider uncertainties due to the increasing presence of renewable generation. Furthermore, also the electrical demand is characterized by a certain level of variability which affects the accuracy of the expected consumption profiles. Thus, probabilistic approaches are an interesting research field to improve reliability of operational planning on future power systems. This work proposes a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of the Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) between interconnected power grids. The method considers the forecast uncertainties on renewable generation and load consumption, by exploiting the Point Estimate Method (PEM) coupled with Third-order Polynomial Normal Transformation (TPNT). The proposed procedure is applied on a benchmark IEEE test system and validated through comparison with a conventional technique.
如今,互联输电系统的管理要求安全评估方法能够考虑到由于可再生能源发电的增加而产生的不确定性。此外,电力需求还具有一定程度的可变性,这会影响预期消费概况的准确性。因此,提高未来电力系统运行规划可靠性的概率方法是一个有趣的研究领域。本文提出了一种评估互联电网间净传输容量(NTC)的概率方法。该方法利用点估计法(PEM)和三阶多项式正态变换(TPNT)相结合的方法,考虑了可再生能源发电和负荷消耗的预测不确定性。将该方法应用于一个IEEE基准测试系统,并与传统方法进行了对比验证。
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引用次数: 1
Introducing distributed learning approaches in wind power forecasting 在风电预测中引入分布式学习方法
P. Pinson
Renewable energy forecasting is now of core interest to both academics, who continuously propose new forecast methodologies, and forecast users for optimal operations and participation in electricity markets. In view of the increasing amount of data being collected at power generation sites, thanks to substantial deployment of generating capacities and increased temporal resolution, it may now be possible to build large models accounting for all space-time dependencies. This will eventually allow to significantly improve the quality of short-term renewable power forecasts. However, in practice, it is often the case that operators of these generation sites do not want to share their data due to competitive interests. Consequently, approaches to privacy-preserving distributed learning are proposed and investigated here. These permit to take advantage of all potential data collected by others, without having to ever share any data, by decomposing the original large learning problem into a number of small learning problems that can be solved in a decentralized manner. As an example, emphasis is placed on Lasso-type estimation of autoregressive models with offsite observations. Different applications on medium to large datasets in Australia (22 wind farms) and France (85 wind farms) are used to illustrate the interest and performance of our proposal.
可再生能源预测现在是两位学者的核心兴趣,他们不断提出新的预测方法,并预测用户的最佳运营和参与电力市场。由于发电能力的大量部署和时间分辨率的提高,在发电场址收集的数据越来越多,现在有可能建立考虑到所有时空依赖性的大型模型。这最终将显著提高短期可再生能源预测的质量。然而,在实践中,由于竞争利益的原因,这些发电站点的运营商往往不愿意分享他们的数据。因此,本文提出并研究了保护隐私的分布式学习方法。通过将原始的大型学习问题分解为许多可以以分散的方式解决的小型学习问题,这些方法允许利用其他人收集的所有潜在数据,而不必共享任何数据。作为一个例子,重点放在lasso型估计的自回归模型与非现场观测。在澳大利亚(22个风电场)和法国(85个风电场)的大中型数据集上的不同应用被用来说明我们的建议的兴趣和性能。
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引用次数: 13
Improving the efficiency of maintenance and repair of electrical network equipment 提高电网设备的维护维修效率
E. Rychagova, V. Levin
The problem of distributive electric network operation upgrading efficiency in terms of selecting the optimum strategy of maintenance of its components is considered. Maintenance and repair of the distributive network components are controllable random processes. For its description the homogeneous semi-Markov model with discrete conditions and continuous time is developed. Based on the complex criterion “expenses - reliability” the optimization of the transmission and distribution equipment maintenance is carried out.
从配电网部件维修优化策略选择的角度考虑配电网运行效率提升问题。配电网部件的维护与维修是一个可控的随机过程。为了对其进行描述,提出了具有离散条件和连续时间的齐次半马尔可夫模型。基于“费用-可靠性”的复杂准则,对输配电设备维修进行优化。
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引用次数: 0
Transmission Availability Data System (TADS) reporting and data analysis 传输可用性数据系统(TADS)报告和数据分析
M. Papic, M. Clemons, S. Ekisheva, J. Langthorn, T. Ly, M. Pakeltis, R. Quest, J. Schaller, D. Till, K. Weisman
This paper describes the inception and basic structure of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Transmission Availability Data System (TADS) and ongoing activities carried out by the NERC TADS Working Group (WG). TADS data was first collected in 2008 after the NERC Board of Trustees approved the collection of TADS data. This paper presents an overview of basic concepts incorporated into the TADS collection system to uniformly and consistently quantify the reliability performance of the North American bulk transmission system. This paper discusses the categorization of transmission outage events including basic definitions of reliability indicators. Additionally, analysis results obtained from outage data collected in TADS during the period 2010-2014 are presented.
本文介绍了北美电力可靠性公司(NERC)传输可用性数据系统(TADS)的起源和基本结构,以及NERC TADS工作组(WG)正在开展的活动。2008年,在NERC董事会批准收集TADS数据后,首次收集了TADS数据。本文概述了纳入TADS收集系统的基本概念,以统一和一致地量化北美大容量传输系统的可靠性性能。本文讨论了输电中断事件的分类,包括可靠性指标的基本定义。此外,本文还介绍了2010-2014年期间TADS收集的停电数据的分析结果。
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引用次数: 10
Probabilistic-based identification of coherent generators 基于概率的相干发生器识别
O. Gomez, G. Anders, C. J. Zapata
This paper proposes a new probabilistic identification method of coherent generators using Monte Carlo simulation and graph modeling. The simulation generates operating states defined by component availability, demand and generation. For each state, the electrical condition is assessed using AC power flow and community detection is applied to a graph representation of the system to detect the coherent generators groups. Finally, the probability of occurrence of each coherent generators group is computed. This methodology was tested on the IEEE 118-bus test system. Results shows that the approach is computationally simple and fast, which makes it very appealing for large power systems.
本文提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗仿真和图建模的相干发生器概率识别新方法。仿真生成由组件可用性、需求和生成定义的操作状态。对于每个状态,使用交流潮流评估电力状况,并将社区检测应用于系统的图表示以检测相干发电机组。最后,计算了各相干发生器群出现的概率。该方法在IEEE 118总线测试系统上进行了测试。结果表明,该方法计算简单,速度快,对大型电力系统具有很大的吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
Overvoltage risk analysis in distribution networks with high penetration of PVs 高渗透率光伏配电网的过电压风险分析
Saeed Alyami, Yang Wang, Caisheng Wang
Solar power has become one of the mainstream distributed renewable energy sources due to its clean and renewable feature and the global push for renewable energy. In a distribution network with high penetration of photovoltaics (PVs), overvoltage is a common and major issue that needs to be addressed to assure system reliability and security. Increasing interests have been given to real time operation of PVs to fully utilize PV generation capacity while the voltage is regulated within a proper range. However, little research has been done on exploring the overvoltage risk at the planning phase. This paper proposes a probabilistic method to evaluate the overvoltage risk in a distribution network with different PV capacity sizes under different load levels. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S test) is used to identify the most proper probability distributions for solar irradiance in different months. To increase accuracy, an iterative process is used to obtain the maximum allowable injection of active power from PVs. The effectiveness of proposed method is verified on a 33-bus system.
由于其清洁、可再生的特点和全球对可再生能源的大力推动,太阳能发电已成为主流的分布式可再生能源之一。在光伏发电普及率高的配电网中,过电压是一个普遍而重要的问题,需要解决以保证系统的可靠性和安全性。在适当的电压调节范围内,光伏发电的实时运行以充分利用光伏发电容量已成为人们日益关注的问题。然而,对规划阶段的过电压风险进行探讨的研究很少。本文提出了一种概率方法来评估不同负荷水平下不同光伏容量规模配电网的过电压风险。采用K-S检验(Kolmogorov-Smirnov test)确定太阳辐照度在不同月份的最合适概率分布。为了提高精度,采用迭代法求出pv最大允许注入有功功率。在一个33总线系统上验证了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 5
Spinning reserve assessment via quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation with renewable sources 基于准序贯蒙特卡罗模拟的可再生能源旋转储备评价
A. M. Leite da Silva, Jose F. Costa Castro, R. A. Gonzalez-Fernandez
This paper presents a new methodology for assessing spinning reserve in generating systems with high penetration of renewable energy. A state-space model is proposed to represent the generation capacity failures and the intermittency of renewable sources based on historical scenarios. The uncertainty in the system supply is captured through risk indices that represent the probability of not meeting the short-term estimated demand. A security strategy associated with the probability distribution of reserve levels is also proposed to avoid the over-sizing of reserve capacity levels to handle unlikely extreme operating points. Risk indices are estimated via quasi-sequential MCS-CE (Monte Carlo Simulation via Cross-Entropy) method, where the corresponding parameters are optimally distorted based on CE concepts. The proposed method is applied to a modified version of the IEEE RTS-79 system to cope with renewable sources.
本文提出了一种新的可再生能源发电系统旋转储备评估方法。提出了一种基于历史情景的可再生能源发电容量失效和间歇性的状态空间模型。系统供给的不确定性是通过风险指数来体现的,这些风险指数表示不能满足短期估计需求的概率。提出了一种与储备水平概率分布相关联的安全策略,以避免储备能力水平过大以应对不可能出现的极端运行点。通过准序贯MCS-CE (Monte Carlo Simulation via Cross-Entropy)方法估计风险指标,其中相应的参数基于CE概念进行最优扭曲。将该方法应用于IEEE RTS-79系统的修改版本,以处理可再生能源。
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引用次数: 8
Probabilistic assessment of PMU integrity for planning of periodic maintenance and testing PMU完整性的概率评估,用于规划定期维护和测试
Tamara Becejac, P. Dehghanian, M. Kezunovic
The standard C37.118.1a-2014 has specified the permissible limits for PMU measurement errors under various static and dynamic test conditions. This paper proposes a statistical measure to evaluate the probability of PMU performance degradation with regards to certain standard requirements. The proposed approach is implemented using a field calibrator system for phasor measurement units (PMUs). Assessment of the test results provides an additional insight about: (a) whether the expected functionality and integrity of the PMUs is maintained over time; (b) which synchrophasor standard requirements are most vulnerable for a given device over time; (c) when the maintenance schedule needs to be expedited on certain PMUs based on observed performance degradation probabilities; and (d) the risks of loss of trustworthiness of various end-use synchrophasor-based applications. The applicability of the suggested technique is verified through implementation on several PMUs in a calibration and testing set-up.
标准C37.118.1a-2014规定了各种静态和动态测试条件下PMU测量误差的允许限值。本文提出了一种评估PMU性能在一定标准要求下下降概率的统计方法。该方法采用相量测量单元(pmu)的现场校准器系统实现。测试结果的评估提供了额外的见解:(a) pmu的预期功能和完整性是否随着时间的推移而保持;(b)随着时间的推移,哪个同步量标准要求对给定设备来说是最脆弱的;(c)根据观察到的性能退化概率,需要加快某些pmu的维修计划;(d)各种最终使用的基于同步量的应用程序失去可信度的风险。通过在校准和测试装置中的几个pmu上实施,验证了所建议技术的适用性。
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引用次数: 17
Probabilistic analysis of the effect of wind speed variations on power quality of power systems 风速变化对电力系统电能质量影响的概率分析
M. Amiri, B. Bagen, A. Gole
Power system probabilistic-based studies have been performed for many years and are widely accepted by researchers and utilities. Such studies are capable of considering uncertainties of power system such as random failures of equipment and uncertainties in load forecast. With the increase of the penetration of renewable energy sources to power systems, new and additional uncertainties are needed to be considered in power system analysis. This paper presents a study methodology for evaluating the effect of wind speed variations on the power quality of power systems. A Monte Carlo Simulation method is used in the studies described in this paper assuming wind speed follows a Weibull distribution. Power flow is performed using a commercial program.
基于电力系统概率的研究已经进行了多年,并被研究人员和电力公司广泛接受。这种研究能够考虑电力系统的不确定性,如设备的随机故障和负荷预测的不确定性。随着可再生能源对电力系统渗透率的增加,电力系统分析需要考虑新的和额外的不确定性。本文提出了一种评估风速变化对电力系统电能质量影响的研究方法。本文采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,假设风速服从威布尔分布。功率流是使用商业程序执行的。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
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