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Running Out of Water and Options? An Assessment of Current Drought and Water Scarcity Management Options in England and Wales 没有水和选择?英格兰和威尔士当前干旱和缺水管理方案评估
Pub Date : 2018-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3245965
Kevin Grecksch
Droughts are a recurring feature of UK climate. This paper asks what drought and water scarcity management options are currently applied in England and Wales and contrasts it with international literature. This research will also deviate from the standard differentiation of supply versus demand options and present a new classification focussing on different stakeholder groups or overarching water governance issues. This new typology helps identifying weaknesses in current drought and water scarcity management. The literature review shows a tendency towards proactive measures that focus on cross-sectoral collaboration, abstractor groups and valuing water. In contrast, the results for England and Wales, based on an analysis of water companies’ Water Resources Management Plans, show that only a limited number of the international available options are applied and that the currently applied options focus on restricting water use in times of drought but focus less on preventing droughts in a larger context of water governance. Thus, to tackle future challenges such as climate change and population growth, water companies and regulators should embrace the introduction of more proactive drought management options.
干旱是英国气候的一个反复出现的特征。本文询问了英格兰和威尔士目前采用的干旱和水资源短缺管理方案,并将其与国际文献进行了对比。这项研究也将偏离供应与需求选项的标准区分,并提出一种新的分类,侧重于不同的利益相关者群体或总体水治理问题。这种新的类型有助于确定当前干旱和缺水管理中的弱点。文献综述显示了一种积极措施的趋势,这些措施侧重于跨部门合作、抽象群体和重视水。相比之下,基于对水务公司水资源管理计划的分析,英格兰和威尔士的结果表明,只有有限数量的国际可用选择得到了应用,而且目前应用的选择侧重于在干旱时期限制用水,但较少关注在更大的水治理背景下预防干旱。因此,为了应对气候变化和人口增长等未来的挑战,水务公司和监管机构应该采用更积极主动的干旱管理方案。
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引用次数: 2
Natural Resources, Economic Growth and Geography 自然资源、经济增长与地理
Pub Date : 2018-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3241982
Rafael González‐Val, F. Pueyo
Abstract Worldwide materials extraction increased by a factor of 8.4 over the course of the 20th century. In the meantime, global GDP and population increased by factors of about 22 and 4, respectively. This reveals that one of the key factors driving the increase in the exploitation of the resources was the growth in world population, although mitigated by the reduction in the intensity in the use of the resources in production. In this paper, we present a model that combines the theory of endogenous growth and the economy of natural resources, but taking into account the geographical distribution of economic activity. Indeed, the New Economic Geography provides insights about two elements that, although speeding up GDP growth, can curb the pressure on natural resources, namely the reduction in transports costs and a boost to pace of innovation.
在20世纪,世界范围内的物质开采增加了8.4倍。与此同时,全球GDP和人口分别增长了约22倍和4倍。这表明,推动资源开发增加的关键因素之一是世界人口的增长,尽管这种增长因生产中资源使用强度的降低而有所缓解。在本文中,我们提出了一个结合内生增长理论和自然资源经济的模型,但考虑了经济活动的地理分布。事实上,《新经济地理》提供了关于两个因素的见解,即降低运输成本和加快创新步伐,这两个因素虽然可以加快GDP增长,但可以抑制对自然资源的压力。
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引用次数: 41
Analysis of the International Responsibility System of Climate Change 气候变化国际责任体系分析
Pub Date : 2018-08-25 DOI: 10.12944/CWE.13.2.04
Mona Davanlou, Poorhashemi Seyed Abbas, A. Zare, M. Abdollahi
International state responsibility is one of the most attractive and most important and, at the same time, the most complex area of international law, and its precise explanation, as well as its commitment, plays a great role in the development of international law enforcement. Today, climate change is one of the common and significant concerns of the international community. Despite the sensitivity and importance of the issue, there has been no significant correlation to solve this problem. With regard to the international law approach, this study seeks to use the subject of international responsibility as an effective mechanism for combating climate change. Moreover, it tries to address Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Consensus in addition to brief look at the past, focusing on recent developments on climate change, and relying on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in order to summarize the latest achievements of international law in this field. Besides, it also discusses the effective liability of the states that can prevent and compensate for these changes.
国际国家责任是国际法中最具吸引力和最重要的领域之一,同时也是最复杂的领域之一,对它的准确解释及其承诺在国际执法的发展中起着巨大的作用。当前,气候变化是国际社会共同关注的重大问题之一。尽管这个问题的敏感性和重要性,但解决这个问题还没有显著的相关性。关于国际法方法,本研究力求利用国际责任这一主题作为对付气候变化的有效机制。此外,本文在简要回顾过去的基础上,试图解决《京都议定书》和《巴黎共识》,重点关注气候变化的最新发展,并以《联合国气候变化框架公约》为依托,总结国际法在这一领域的最新成就。此外,还讨论了国家预防和补偿这些变化的有效责任。
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引用次数: 1
Land Grabbing in Europe? Socio-Cultural Externalities of Large-Scale Land Acquisitions in East Germany 欧洲的土地掠夺?东德大规模土地征用的社会文化外部性
Pub Date : 2018-08-20 DOI: 10.3390/LAND7030098
Ramona Bunkus, I. Theesfeld
Recently, we witnessed an immense increase in international land transactions in the Global South, a phenomenon slowly expanding in northern industrialized countries, too. Even though in Europe agriculture plays a decreasing economic role for rural livelihoods, the increases in land transactions by non-local, non-agricultural investors pervades rural life. Nevertheless, the underlying processes are not yet well understood. Large-scale land acquisitions describe such purchases and leases in a neutral way, while ‘land grabbing’ expresses negative consequences for rural people. We investigate whether and under which conditions the term land grabbing is justified for the phenomenon observed in Europe. We propose six socio-cultural criteria that scholars should consider to come to an initial classification: legal irregularities, non-residence of new owners, centralization in decision-making structures, treating land as an investment object, concentration of decision-power, and limited access to land markets. We supplement our findings with empirical material from East Germany, where such land acquisition processes occur. Our paper contributes to the ongoing discussion about agricultural structural change in Europe, which is intensified by increasing land prices and a new distribution of landownership but likewise strongly intertwined with rural development.
最近,我们看到全球南方国家的国际土地交易大幅增加,这一现象也在北方工业化国家缓慢扩大。尽管在欧洲,农业对农村生计的经济作用正在减弱,但非本地、非农业投资者的土地交易增加,在农村生活中随处可见。然而,潜在的过程还没有被很好地理解。大规模的土地征用以一种中立的方式描述了这种购买和租赁,而“土地掠夺”则表达了对农村人口的负面影响。我们调查在欧洲观察到的现象是否以及在哪些条件下,土地掠夺一词是合理的。我们提出了学者们应该考虑的六个社会文化标准来进行初步分类:法律违规、新业主非居住、决策结构的集中化、将土地视为投资对象、决策权集中和土地市场准入受限。我们用东德的经验材料补充了我们的发现,那里发生了这样的土地征用过程。我们的论文为正在进行的关于欧洲农业结构变化的讨论做出了贡献,这种变化因土地价格上涨和土地所有权的新分配而加剧,但同样与农村发展密切相关。
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引用次数: 39
Long Term Risk Governance: When Do Societies Act Before Crisis? 长期风险治理:社会何时在危机前采取行动?
Pub Date : 2018-08-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3230337
R. Shwom, R. Kopp
Many environmental problems entail a temporal dilemma. Societies benefit from resource use now that will have cumulative negative impacts on future generations. All too often, societies only act to address these risks after a crisis (such as a fisheries collapse or a river on fire) has occurred. Climate change presents a particularly challenging case since when society decides the harms are too great to withstand, reducing greenhouse gas emissions drastically will take time and society will be left to suffer, adapt, or undertake risky geoengineering. In this paper we ask the question: Under what conditions do societies act to address a long term risk before crisis? We draw from the literature in economics, psychology, sociology, and political science to provide a range of potential factors that would contribute to addressing long term risks. We find that long term risk governance is under-theorized and that existing relevant understandings are highly fragmented. We also find that empirical studies testing these theories are limited in number and have mixed results. We propose that case studies of long term risks that have been addressed could be a fruitful avenue forward in developing a more cohesive and empirically rooted theory of when societies address a future risk before a crisis point.
许多环境问题造成了暂时的困境。社会受益于目前的资源利用,但对子孙后代将产生累积的负面影响。社会往往在危机(如渔业崩溃或河流着火)发生后才采取行动应对这些风险。气候变化是一个特别具有挑战性的案例,因为当社会认为危害太大而无法承受时,大幅减少温室气体排放将需要时间,社会将承受、适应或承担风险的地球工程。在本文中,我们提出了这样一个问题:在什么条件下,社会才能在危机发生前采取行动应对长期风险?我们从经济学、心理学、社会学和政治学的文献中提取了一系列有助于解决长期风险的潜在因素。我们发现长期风险治理理论不足,现有的相关理解是高度分散的。我们还发现,检验这些理论的实证研究数量有限,结果好坏参半。我们建议,对已经解决的长期风险进行案例研究,可能是一个富有成效的途径,有助于发展一种更具凝聚力和经验基础的理论,即社会何时在危机点之前解决未来风险。
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引用次数: 0
Rapid Damage Estimation with Iterative Improvements for Relief Resource Planning Post-Disasters 基于迭代改进的灾后救援资源规划快速损害评估
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3254748
R. Garg, Yuxin Zhang, Linda Golden, P. Brockett
Natural disasters can disrupt both the short-term and long-term living conditions of individuals in selected areas, and for any natural disaster selecting a large geographic area, there is always a shortage of funds and resources for relief and recovery. Moreover, the allocation of relief assistance is challenging due to difficulties in collecting accurate loss information during and immediately post-crisis. Thus, in this study, we present a data-driven decision-making framework for disaster management and provide a model for the rapid estimation of disaster losses using an iterative learning method. As disaster loss data are largely initially unavailable and only become available gradually, slowly, and sparsely over time, an iterative process is necessary for loss estimation and on-the-ground decision-making. We first train models to predict losses using single environmental factors (e.g., peak wind speed) for impacted locations and then use geospatial interpolation to estimate losses in those areas where actual loss data are missing. As real, verified loss data become available, we iteratively update all model parameters and estimates. To illustrate this technique, we use data from Hurricane Harvey, which hit the gulf coast area of the USA in 2017. The results demonstrate that iterative learning leads to quick convergence of loss estimation, with small magnitudes of estimation error. Additional tests demonstrate that the results are arguably robust, and we conclude with implications for future research.
自然灾害可以扰乱特定地区个人的短期和长期生活条件,对于任何选择较大地理区域的自然灾害,总是存在救济和恢复的资金和资源短缺。此外,由于难以在危机期间和危机后立即收集准确的损失资料,救灾援助的分配具有挑战性。因此,在本研究中,我们提出了一个数据驱动的灾害管理决策框架,并提供了一个使用迭代学习方法快速估计灾害损失的模型。由于灾害损失数据最初大部分是不可用的,并且随着时间的推移只能逐渐、缓慢和稀疏地获得,因此需要一个反复的过程来进行损失估计和实地决策。我们首先训练模型,使用单一环境因素(例如,峰值风速)来预测受影响地区的损失,然后使用地理空间插值来估计那些缺少实际损失数据的地区的损失。当真实的、经过验证的损失数据可用时,我们迭代地更新所有模型参数和估计。为了说明这种技术,我们使用了2017年袭击美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区的哈维飓风的数据。结果表明,迭代学习使得损失估计收敛速度快,估计误差较小。额外的测试表明,结果是可靠的,我们得出结论,对未来的研究有启示。
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引用次数: 0
Cheating under Regulation: Evidence from “Yin-and-Yang” Contracts on Beijing’s Housing Market 监管下的欺诈:来自北京房地产市场“阴阳”合同的证据
Pub Date : 2018-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3222487
Yanke Dai, Yang Xu
This paper reveals the role of Yin-and-Yang contracts in evading transaction regulations in China’s housing market. Using micro-observations of Beijing’s housing resales, we find buyers are engaged in “Yin-and-Yang” contracts with higher degree of under-reporting during “the most stringent regulation in history”. We then estimate the extra tax loss from this further under-reporting as an unexpected side effect of regulation policies. Moreover, since “Yin-and-Yang” contracts put more liquidity pressure on the buyers, we also investigate the potential crowding-out effect and enlarged inequality after regulation.
本文揭示了阴阳合约在中国房地产市场规避交易规则中的作用。通过对北京住房转售的微观观察,我们发现,在“史上最严调控”时期,买家从事“阴阳”合同,低报程度更高。然后,我们将这种进一步少报的额外税收损失估计为监管政策的意外副作用。此外,由于“阴阳”合约给买家带来了更大的流动性压力,我们还研究了监管后潜在的挤出效应和扩大的不平等。
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引用次数: 3
Supporting Resilience to Natural Hazards in East Asia and the Pacific 支持东亚和太平洋地区抵御自然灾害的能力
Pub Date : 2018-01-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3103207
Janardhana Anjanappa
Natural hazards and its adverse implications on economic growth limit the progress of sectoral development at national and sub-national level. This is true in the context of East Asia and the Pacific which is highly exposed to such natural hazards. Therefore, the region is seeking co-operation in Disaster Risk Management (DRM) assessment and disaster risk financing and insurance. Considering the above, this study provides an overview of DRM practice in the region. The findings of the study suggest that the region is facing obstacles such as lack of knowledge and technical capacity limits the ability of many countries in East Asia and the Pacific to assess risks accurately and access to national multi-hazard risk assessment. Hence, there is a need for Investing in-country technical capacity, integrate risk information into the decision-making process, bridge the gap between stakeholders to build collective resilience and risk identification activities. In addition, sharing the risk information with key stakeholders will help to protect their assets. In the end, benchmarking activities in raising awareness from the governments will help to increase transparency and accountability.
自然灾害及其对经济增长的不利影响限制了国家和地方各级部门发展的进展。这在东亚和太平洋地区是正确的,这些地区高度暴露于这种自然灾害。因此,该地区正在寻求灾害风险管理(DRM)评估以及灾害风险融资和保险方面的合作。综上所述,本研究对该地区的DRM实践进行了概述。这项研究的结果表明,该地区正面临着诸如缺乏知识和技术能力等障碍,这限制了东亚和太平洋地区许多国家准确评估风险和获得国家多灾害风险评估的能力。因此,有必要投资于国内技术能力,将风险信息纳入决策过程,弥合利益攸关方之间的差距,以建立集体复原力和风险识别活动。此外,与关键利益相关者共享风险信息将有助于保护他们的资产。最后,提高政府意识的基准活动将有助于提高透明度和问责制。
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引用次数: 0
Natural Disasters, Social Protection, and Risk Perceptions 自然灾害、社会保护和风险认知
Pub Date : 2018-01-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3086868
P. Brown, A. Daigneault, Emilia Tjernstrom, Wenbo Zou
Natural disasters give rise to loss and damage and may affect subjective expectations about the prevalence and severity of future disasters. These expectations might then in turn shape individuals' investment behaviors, potentially affecting their incomes in subsequent years. As part of an emerging literature on endogenous preferences, economists have begun studying the consequences that exposure to natural disasters have on risk attitudes, perceptions, and behavior. We add to this field by studying the impact of being struck by the December 2012 Cyclone Evan on Fijian households' risk attitudes and subjective expectations about the likelihood and severity of natural disasters over the next 20 years. The randomness of the cyclone's path allows us to estimate the causal effects of exposure on both risk attitudes and risk perceptions. Our results show that being struck by an extreme event substantially changes individuals' risk perceptions as well as their beliefs about the frequency and magnitude of future shocks. However, we find sharply distinct results for the two ethnicities in our sample, indigenous Fijians and Indo-Fijians; the impact of the natural disaster aligns with previous results in the literature on risk attitudes and risk perceptions for Indo-Fijians, whereas they have little to no impact on those same measures for indigenous Fijians. To provide welfare implications for our results, we compare households' risk perceptions to climate and hydrological models of future disaster risk, and find that both ethnic groups over-infer the risk of future disasters relative to the model predictions. If such distorted beliefs encourage over-investment in preventative measures at the cost of other productive investments, these biases could have negative welfare impacts. Understanding belief biases and how they vary across social contexts may thus help decision makers design policy instruments to reduce such inefficiencies, particularly in the face of climate change.
自然灾害造成损失和损害,并可能影响对未来灾害的普遍程度和严重程度的主观预期。这些预期可能反过来影响个人的投资行为,可能影响他们随后几年的收入。作为关于内生偏好的新兴文献的一部分,经济学家已经开始研究暴露于自然灾害对风险态度、认知和行为的影响。我们通过研究2012年12月遭受飓风“埃文”袭击对斐济家庭风险态度的影响,以及对未来20年自然灾害的可能性和严重程度的主观预期,进一步扩展了这一领域。气旋路径的随机性使我们能够估计暴露对风险态度和风险认知的因果影响。我们的研究结果表明,受到极端事件的袭击会极大地改变个人的风险感知,以及他们对未来冲击的频率和程度的信念。然而,我们发现样本中的两个种族,土著斐济人和印度-斐济人的结果截然不同;自然灾害的影响与先前文献中关于印裔斐济人的风险态度和风险认知的结果一致,而它们对土著斐济人的相同措施几乎没有影响。为了给我们的结果提供福利意义,我们比较了家庭对未来灾害风险的气候和水文模型的风险感知,发现两个种族群体都过度推断了相对于模型预测的未来灾害风险。如果这种扭曲的信念以牺牲其他生产性投资为代价,鼓励对预防性措施的过度投资,这些偏见可能会对福利产生负面影响。因此,了解信念偏见及其在不同社会背景下的差异,可能有助于决策者设计政策工具,以减少这种低效率,特别是在面对气候变化的情况下。
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引用次数: 122
Towards an Integrated Model of Livability of Public Spaces in Middle Income Neighborhoods 中等收入社区公共空间宜居性综合模式研究
Pub Date : 2017-11-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3163048
Mohamed Keleg, M. Salheen
The New Urban Agenda prioritized livability of public spaces through design and management. As the management of public spaces defines the role they play in neighborhoods and the ways people react to it. Accordingly, all city elements are being reshaped and altered in the new policies and strategies of cities to meet people's interests. Nasr city, a middle-income neighborhood, is characterized by abundance of green open spaces relative to other parts of Cairo. However, based on former surveys and observations conducted by the authors, there were some remarkably livable public spaces in the district on the contrary to the general situation of underused spaces. With further analysis of these spaces, it is claimed that there are two models of livability of public spaces in Nasr City; formal initiatives and temporal acts. This paper aims at investigating the two management models through investigating the provided commodity each model serves in relation to community's needs, their governance models, the beneficiaries, and the time usages. To propose an integrated model that fulfills the needs of the community and enhances the livability of middle income neighborhoods. This shall be achieved through spaces' mapping and observations as well as interviews and questionnaires of the different stakeholders.
《新城市议程》通过设计和管理优先考虑公共空间的宜居性。公共空间的管理定义了它们在社区中扮演的角色以及人们对它的反应方式。因此,在新的城市政策和战略中,所有的城市要素都在被重塑和改变,以满足人们的利益。纳斯尔市是一个中等收入社区,与开罗其他地区相比,它的特点是拥有丰富的绿色开放空间。然而,根据作者之前的调查和观察,该地区有一些非常宜居的公共空间,与空间未充分利用的总体情况相反。通过对这些空间的进一步分析,可以得出纳斯尔城公共空间的宜居性有两种模式;正式的倡议和暂时的行为。本文旨在通过调查两种管理模式所提供的商品与社区需求的关系、它们的治理模式、受益者和时间使用来研究这两种管理模式。提出一个满足社区需求的综合模式,提高中等收入社区的宜居性。这将通过空间的测绘和观察,以及对不同利益相关者的访谈和问卷调查来实现。
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引用次数: 0
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