Sovereign external assets (SEAs) comprise foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The global stock of reserves reached 7 $trn in the second quarter of 2008, but data on SWF are rather elusive. Our estimation puts the SWFs at around 2,5 $trn dollars by 2007 and in the last years they have grown at a high pace, fostered by high commodity prices. Therefore, SEAs have surpassed the 10 $trn mark (around 5% of global assets and 15% of global GDP). This paper argues that reserves and SWF assets should be jointly considered for the assessment of global imbalances. Both are official capital outflows from developing to developed countries, both hinder internal adjustment in current account surplus countries, both help to cover the financing needs of deficit countries, in particular in the US, and, therefore, both contribute to sustain global imbalances. The importance of SEAs in financing the external imbalances of the US has been widely recognised but scantly measured. Our rule-of-thumb calculations suggests that they have greatly increased their importance in the last years, having surpassed the US$ trillion increase in 2007; relative to US financing needs, this amount represents around a 135% and 50% of net and gross needs, respectively, in 2007. Reserves have in the last years contributed 80% and SWFs 20%.Looking ahead, two main conclusions can be put forward: 1) the relative importance SWFs in the financing of the US deficits and global imbalances is set to increase (also relative to reserves), but this is conditional to commodity prices remaining at high levels. On the one hand, the economic motivation of SWFs -intertemporal smoothing- is more palatable than that of reserves (exchange rate management), despite political concerns on SWFs; on the other hand, SWFs do not have significant internal costs, contrary to reserves, whose monetary and fiscal costs are increasing in the margin; 2) SEAs can well buttress US financial needs in the years ahead, providing resilience to the global imbalances. Dramatic shifts in the pace of SEAs accumulation -due for instance to an adjustment of commodity prices- or in the investment allocation would jeopardise these prospects.
{"title":"Sovereign External Assets and the Resilience of Global Imbalances","authors":"Enrique Alberola, José María Serena","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1338064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1338064","url":null,"abstract":"Sovereign external assets (SEAs) comprise foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). The global stock of reserves reached 7 $trn in the second quarter of 2008, but data on SWF are rather elusive. Our estimation puts the SWFs at around 2,5 $trn dollars by 2007 and in the last years they have grown at a high pace, fostered by high commodity prices. Therefore, SEAs have surpassed the 10 $trn mark (around 5% of global assets and 15% of global GDP). This paper argues that reserves and SWF assets should be jointly considered for the assessment of global imbalances. Both are official capital outflows from developing to developed countries, both hinder internal adjustment in current account surplus countries, both help to cover the financing needs of deficit countries, in particular in the US, and, therefore, both contribute to sustain global imbalances. The importance of SEAs in financing the external imbalances of the US has been widely recognised but scantly measured. Our rule-of-thumb calculations suggests that they have greatly increased their importance in the last years, having surpassed the US$ trillion increase in 2007; relative to US financing needs, this amount represents around a 135% and 50% of net and gross needs, respectively, in 2007. Reserves have in the last years contributed 80% and SWFs 20%.Looking ahead, two main conclusions can be put forward: 1) the relative importance SWFs in the financing of the US deficits and global imbalances is set to increase (also relative to reserves), but this is conditional to commodity prices remaining at high levels. On the one hand, the economic motivation of SWFs -intertemporal smoothing- is more palatable than that of reserves (exchange rate management), despite political concerns on SWFs; on the other hand, SWFs do not have significant internal costs, contrary to reserves, whose monetary and fiscal costs are increasing in the margin; 2) SEAs can well buttress US financial needs in the years ahead, providing resilience to the global imbalances. Dramatic shifts in the pace of SEAs accumulation -due for instance to an adjustment of commodity prices- or in the investment allocation would jeopardise these prospects.","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130592983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Shock and Awe: Institutional Change, Neoliberalism, and Disaster Capitalism","authors":"Art Carden","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1302446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1302446","url":null,"abstract":"This essay examines some of the key claims made in Naomi Klein's \"The Shock Doctrine.\"","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133829632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Warnings to the broad population in an emergency situation, irrespective of location and condition, is a public policy responsibility. Public wireless networks offer now the opportunity to deliver emergency warnings in this way with explanations, because in many countries the mobile penetration rates and coverage are higher than any other access form. The paper summarizes the analysis of the selection process between Short messaging services (SMS) and Cell Broadcast (CB) messaging in the context of Denmark based on end user requirements, stakeholder roles and case-based analysis. It demonstrates the many technical, cost-benefit and other trade-offs needed in supporting the population now with a dependable and wide-spread technology. This research is the basis for a national policy
{"title":"Emergency Messaging to General Public Via Public Wireless Networks","authors":"L. Pau, P. Simonsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1432875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1432875","url":null,"abstract":"Warnings to the broad population in an emergency situation, irrespective of location and condition, is a public policy responsibility. Public wireless networks offer now the opportunity to deliver emergency warnings in this way with explanations, because in many countries the mobile penetration rates and coverage are higher than any other access form. The paper summarizes the analysis of the selection process between Short messaging services (SMS) and Cell Broadcast (CB) messaging in the context of Denmark based on end user requirements, stakeholder roles and case-based analysis. It demonstrates the many technical, cost-benefit and other trade-offs needed in supporting the population now with a dependable and wide-spread technology. This research is the basis for a national policy","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133302057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cyclical fluctuations in economic activity have moderated over time but the extent and dynamics of volatility remain different across OECD countries. A reason behind this heterogeneity is that countries exhibit different degrees of resilience in the face of common shocks. This paper traces divergences in resilience back to different policy settings and institutions in labour, product and financial markets. Using pooled regression analysis across 20 OECD countries over the period 1982-2003, the paper identifies the impact of policy settings on two dimensions of resilience: the impact effect of a shock and its subsequent persistence. Policies and institutions associated with rigidities in labour and product markets are found to dampen the initial impact of shocks but to make their effects more persistent, while policies allowing for deep mortgage markets lower persistence and thereby improve resilience. Combining these two dimensions of resilience, the paper then uses the estimated equations to derive indicators of resilience for the OECD countries concerned, based on their current or recent policy settings. Three groups of countries emerge. In English-speaking countries, simulations suggest shocks have a significant initial effect on activity but this impact then dies out relatively quickly. By contrast, in many continental European countries the initial impact of shocks is cushioned but their effect linger for longer, with the cumulated output loss tending to be larger than in English-speaking countries. Finally a few, mostly small, European countries combine cushioning of the initial shock with a fairly quick return to baseline. Politiques structurelles et resilience economique aux chocs Bien que les fluctuations cycliques de l'activite se soient attenuees au cours des annees recentes, leur ampleur et leur evolution continuent de differer sensiblement entre pays de l'OCDE. L'une des explications a cette heterogeneite est que les pays affichent differents degres de resilience a des chocs communs. Cet article explore la contribution des politiques et des institutions sur les marches financiers, du travail et des biens et services a ces ecarts de resilience. A partir de regressions sur un panel de 20 pays de l'OCDE portant sur la periode 1982-2003, l'article identifie l' impact des politiques sur deux dimensions de la resilience : l'effet d'un choc a l'impact et sa persistance ulterieure. Il ressort que les politiques et les institutions entrainant des rigidites sur les marches du travail et des biens et services attenuent l'impact initial d'un choc mais rendent cet effet plus persistant, tandis que des politiques favorisant le developpement des marches hypothecaires reduisent la persistance et ainsi ameliorent la resilience. Combinant ces deux dimensions de la resilience, l'article utilise ensuite les equations estimees pour construire des indicateurs de resilience pour chacun des pays de l'OCDE concernes, sur la base de leurs politiques et de leu
随着时间的推移，经济活动的周期性波动有所缓和，但经合组织国家之间波动的程度和力度仍然不同。这种异质性背后的一个原因是，面对共同的冲击，各国表现出不同程度的抵御能力。本文将韧性的差异追溯到劳动力、产品和金融市场的不同政策设置和制度。利用1982-2003年期间20个经合组织国家的汇总回归分析，本文确定了政策设置对弹性的两个维度的影响:冲击的影响效应及其随后的持续性。研究发现，与劳动力和产品市场刚性相关的政策和制度会抑制冲击的初始影响，但会使其影响更加持久，而允许深度抵押贷款市场的政策会降低持久性，从而提高弹性。结合弹性的这两个维度，本文然后使用估计的方程，根据有关经合组织国家当前或最近的政策设置，得出其弹性指标。出现了三组国家。模拟表明，在英语国家，冲击对经济活动有显著的初始影响，但这种影响随后相对较快地消失。相比之下，在许多欧洲大陆国家，冲击的最初影响得到缓冲，但其影响持续的时间更长，累积的产出损失往往比英语国家更大。最后，一些欧洲国家(大多是小国)将缓冲最初的冲击与相当快地恢复到基准水平结合起来。政治structurelles等弹性摘要辅助巧克力好,莱斯波动cycliques de l 'activite se的数字attenuees盟课程排最近,为了他们ampleur等进化延伸de不同sensiblement之间支付de l 'OCDE。L'une的解释是一种不同的异质性测试，它具有不同程度的弹性和不同程度的弹性。这篇文章探讨了政治、制度、金融市场、劳动力、服务业和经济弹性的贡献。第一部分对1982-2003年期间ocde的重要影响进行了回归分析，第一部分确定了政治影响对弹性的两个维度的影响:选择的影响和持久性文化的影响。伊尔公司,les中心等机构entrainant des rigidites苏尔les游行du阵痛et des attenuent好等服务的头文字d一个巧克力但是rendent cet(中央东部东京)effet +坚持不懈,tandis, des favorisant le开发署des政治游行hypothecaires reduisent la持久性等依照ainsi ameliorent拉韧性。结合弹性的两个维度，本文利用一系列的方程和时间来构建弹性指标，为经济和社会发展的关注提供弹性指标，为政治和制度的基础提供弹性指标。让我们来分析一下三个集团的公平分配情况。当英语为母语时，模拟结果表明，不同的选择不会对初始意义产生影响，而不同的选择则会迅速消散。与之相反的是，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”，“欧洲大陆人”是“欧洲大陆人”。最后，欧洲人的“小矮人”(quelques petits pays Europeens)和“小矮人”(elelques petits pays Europeens)的结合，是一种不受影响的模式，使它们的关系迅速恢复到平衡状态。
{"title":"Structural Policies and Economic Resilience to Shocks","authors":"R. Duval, J. Elmeskov, L. Vogel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1002508","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1002508","url":null,"abstract":"Cyclical fluctuations in economic activity have moderated over time but the extent and dynamics of volatility remain different across OECD countries. A reason behind this heterogeneity is that countries exhibit different degrees of resilience in the face of common shocks. This paper traces divergences in resilience back to different policy settings and institutions in labour, product and financial markets. Using pooled regression analysis across 20 OECD countries over the period 1982-2003, the paper identifies the impact of policy settings on two dimensions of resilience: the impact effect of a shock and its subsequent persistence. Policies and institutions associated with rigidities in labour and product markets are found to dampen the initial impact of shocks but to make their effects more persistent, while policies allowing for deep mortgage markets lower persistence and thereby improve resilience. Combining these two dimensions of resilience, the paper then uses the estimated equations to derive indicators of resilience for the OECD countries concerned, based on their current or recent policy settings. Three groups of countries emerge. In English-speaking countries, simulations suggest shocks have a significant initial effect on activity but this impact then dies out relatively quickly. By contrast, in many continental European countries the initial impact of shocks is cushioned but their effect linger for longer, with the cumulated output loss tending to be larger than in English-speaking countries. Finally a few, mostly small, European countries combine cushioning of the initial shock with a fairly quick return to baseline. Politiques structurelles et resilience economique aux chocs Bien que les fluctuations cycliques de l'activite se soient attenuees au cours des annees recentes, leur ampleur et leur evolution continuent de differer sensiblement entre pays de l'OCDE. L'une des explications a cette heterogeneite est que les pays affichent differents degres de resilience a des chocs communs. Cet article explore la contribution des politiques et des institutions sur les marches financiers, du travail et des biens et services a ces ecarts de resilience. A partir de regressions sur un panel de 20 pays de l'OCDE portant sur la periode 1982-2003, l'article identifie l' impact des politiques sur deux dimensions de la resilience : l'effet d'un choc a l'impact et sa persistance ulterieure. Il ressort que les politiques et les institutions entrainant des rigidites sur les marches du travail et des biens et services attenuent l'impact initial d'un choc mais rendent cet effet plus persistant, tandis que des politiques favorisant le developpement des marches hypothecaires reduisent la persistance et ainsi ameliorent la resilience. Combinant ces deux dimensions de la resilience, l'article utilise ensuite les equations estimees pour construire des indicateurs de resilience pour chacun des pays de l'OCDE concernes, sur la base de leurs politiques et de leu","PeriodicalId":265524,"journal":{"name":"Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125363926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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