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The Theory of Change for the CSA Approach: A Guide to Evidence-Based Implementation at the Country Level CSA方法的变革理论:国家层面基于证据的实施指南
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3300001
A. Arslan
This module articulates a theory of change for climate-smart agriculture. The theory of change serves as a foundation for a step-by-step guide for implementing a national climate-smart agricultural strategic framework. The first section of the module describes the elements of the theory of change. Based on this theory, the second section lays out the steps that need be followed to establish the required evidence base to support climate-smart agriculture planning and implementation. These steps are associated with five distinct activities: stocktaking of challenges and options; identifying potential climate-smart agriculture interventions; expanding the evidence base for climatesmart agriculture objectives; assessing barriers to adoption; costing interventions; and prioritizing and planning for country-owned climate-smart agriculture strategies. The third section highlights some of the key capacities that need to be developed to build and sustain a national climate-smart agriculture strategy and integrate climate-smart agriculture into policies that extend beyond specific projects and programmes.
本模块阐述了气候智能型农业的变化理论。变化理论为逐步实施国家气候智慧型农业战略框架提供了基础。该模块的第一部分描述了变化理论的要素。基于这一理论,第二部分列出了为支持气候智慧型农业规划和实施而建立所需证据基础所需遵循的步骤。这些步骤与五项不同的活动有关:盘点挑战和选择;确定潜在的气候智能型农业干预措施;扩大气候智能型农业目标的证据基础;评估采用的障碍;价格干预措施;优先考虑和规划国家自主的气候智能型农业战略。第三部分强调了为制定和维持国家气候智慧型农业战略,并将气候智慧型农业纳入具体项目和计划以外的政策,需要发展的一些关键能力。
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引用次数: 1
Socio-Economic Determinism and Climate Change 社会经济决定论与气候变化
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.22158/ASIR.V1N2P131
Jan-Erik Lane
The global warming problematic is in reality decided not by the UNFCCC or IPCC with its mastodon meetings. The decisive players are the states of the following BIG polluters of CO2: China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia Mexico, South Korea, Canada, Australia and the US, despite the fact that its present government already has defected from the common pool regime, set up in Paris 2017, These countries together with international shipping and aviation are putting out more than 50% of the CO2s. However, they are little interested, because they emphasize the policy-making of socio-economic development, either economic growth with rich countries or the “catch-up” strategy with poor or emerging economies. Resilience will decide which countries can support the consequences of climate change.
全球变暖问题实际上不是由联合国气候变化框架公约或政府间气候变化专门委员会召开的乳齿象会议决定的。决定性的参与者是以下二氧化碳排放大国:中国、印度、印度尼西亚、巴西、俄罗斯、墨西哥、韩国、加拿大、澳大利亚和美国,尽管其现任政府已经脱离了2017年在巴黎建立的共同储备制度,这些国家与国际航运和航空一起排放了50%以上的二氧化碳。然而,他们不感兴趣,因为他们强调社会经济发展的决策,要么是富裕国家的经济增长,要么是贫穷或新兴经济体的“追赶”战略。适应力将决定哪些国家能够承受气候变化带来的后果。
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引用次数: 0
Defining the Roles of the Public and Private Sector in Risk Communication, Risk Reduction, and Risk Transfer 确定公共和私营部门在风险沟通、风险降低和风险转移中的角色
Pub Date : 2017-05-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3029630
C. Kousky, H. Kunreuther
Insurance is an essential component of household and community resilience: it protects insureds financially against disaster losses, can encourage investments in cost-effective mitigation measures through premium reductions, and facilitates rebuilding of property and long-term recovery following a disaster via claim payments. Private insurers face challenges in providing protection against low-probability, high-consequence events, however, and the perceived market failures have led governments around the world to create various (quasi to fully) public insurance entities, often designed as public–private partnerships. This paper synthesizes findings from six papers and the resulting discussion at a November 2016 workshop, “Improving Disaster Financing: Evaluating Policy Interventions in Disaster Insurance Markets.” Participants evaluated disaster insurance programs for flood, earthquake, and terrorism losses, as well as comprehensive homeowners policies. This paper discusses the difficulties in providing protection against these types of disasters and suggests ways to improve public-private partnerships for disaster financing in three interrelated areas: (1) risk communication, (2) risk reduction, and (3) risk transfer. The paper concludes with a proposal for a comprehensive insurance program that could harness the benefits of both the public and private sectors.
保险是家庭和社区抗灾能力的重要组成部分:它在经济上保护被保险人免受灾害损失,可以通过降低保费鼓励投资于具有成本效益的减灾措施,并通过索赔支付促进灾后财产重建和长期恢复。然而,私营保险公司在提供针对低概率、高后果事件的保护方面面临挑战,而市场失灵已导致世界各国政府创建各种(准到完全)公共保险实体,通常被设计为公私合作伙伴关系。本文综合了六篇论文的研究结果以及2016年11月“改善灾害融资:评估灾害保险市场的政策干预”研讨会上的讨论结果。与会者评估了针对洪水、地震和恐怖主义损失的灾害保险计划,以及全面的房主政策。本文讨论了针对这类灾害提供保护的困难,并提出了在三个相互关联的领域改善灾害融资公私伙伴关系的方法:(1)风险沟通,(2)风险降低,(3)风险转移。该报告最后提出了一项综合保险计划的建议,该计划可以利用公共和私营部门的利益。
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引用次数: 6
Stock Market Reaction to Supply Chain Disruptions from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake 股市对2011年东日本大地震造成的供应链中断的反应
Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2959681
K. B. Hendricks, B. Jacobs, V. Singhal
Problem definition: This paper provides empirical evidence on the effect of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) on the financial performance of firms. Academic/practical relevance: The GEJE was characterized as the most significant disruption ever for global supply chains. In its aftermath, there was a great deal of debate about the risks and vulnerabilities of global supply chains, and there were calls to redesign and restructure supply chains. Methodology: We empirically estimate the effect of the GEJE on the stock prices of firms. Our analyses are based on a global sample of 470 firms collected from articles and announcements in the business press that identify affected firms, as well as 382 firms that are not mentioned in the business press but are in industries potentially subject to contagion or competitive effects. Results: We estimate that firms experiencing supply chain disruptions as a result of the GEJE lost on average 5.21% of their shareholder value during the one-month period after the GEJE. For Japanese firms, the effect was much more severe with an average 9.32% loss in shareholder value. Non-Japanese firms averaged a 3.73% loss in shareholder value. We also find that upstream and downstream supply chain propagation effects from the GEJE are negative, and the contagion effect on firms related to the nuclear industry is very negative. For firms in the rebuilding industries or competitors to firms affected by the GEJE, the competitive effect from the GEJE is positive. Managerial implications: The loss suffered by both Japanese firms and non-Japanese firms experiencing supply chain disruptions as a result of the GEJE is economically significant. Although the loss is more severe for firms whose operations were directly affected by the GEJE, it is also significant for firms who experienced indirect effects from their upstream and downstream supply chain partners, further confirming the importance of supply chain risk mitigation strategies.
问题定义:本文提供了2011年东日本大地震(GEJE)对企业财务绩效影响的实证证据。学术/实践相关性:GEJE被认为是全球供应链有史以来最重大的中断。在危机之后,人们对全球供应链的风险和脆弱性进行了大量辩论,并呼吁重新设计和重组供应链。方法:实证分析了企业经济指标对企业股价的影响。我们的分析基于470家公司的全球样本,这些公司是从商业媒体的文章和公告中收集的,这些文章和公告确定了受影响的公司,以及382家未在商业媒体中提及但可能受到传染或竞争影响的行业的公司。结果:我们估计,由于GEJE而经历供应链中断的公司在GEJE后的一个月内平均损失了5.21%的股东价值。对日本公司来说,影响要严重得多,股东价值平均损失9.32%。非日本公司的股东价值平均损失3.73%。研究还发现,核电产业的上下游供应链传播效应为负,对核工业相关企业的传染效应为负。对于处于重建行业的企业或受新经济政策影响的企业的竞争对手而言,新经济政策的竞争效应为正。管理意义:日本公司和非日本公司遭受的损失都是经济上重大的,因为全球经济危机导致供应链中断。虽然对于业务直接受到全球经济一体化影响的公司来说,损失更为严重,但对于那些受到上下游供应链合作伙伴间接影响的公司来说,损失也很严重,这进一步证实了供应链风险缓解战略的重要性。
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引用次数: 62
Analysis of the Urban Expansion for the Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria 尼日利亚翁多州阿库雷市城市扩张分析
Pub Date : 2017-01-26 DOI: 10.18052/WWW.SCIPRESS.COM/ILSHS.75.41
E. Eke, M. Oyinloye, I. Olamiju
African cities are experiencing uncontrolled expansion. The focus of this paper is to evaluate the impact of urban expansion on landuse types of Akure for the period of 1972 to 2009. In analyzing the urban expansion of the city, 1972 MSS, 1986 Landsat Thematic ™ and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images for 2002 and 2009 satellite image captured from google earth website were used in a post classification comparison analysis to map the spatial dynamics of landuse/ land cover changes and identify the urban expansion of Akure. Questionnaire was also used to determine the factors responsible for the expansion of Akure. The findings showed a rapid expansion in the built-up area of Akure from 1.00% in 1972 to 2.46% in 1986, 2.46% in 1986 to 3.90% in 2002 with an annual growth rate of 10.63% and 3.66% due to increasing population of Akure within these periods respectively. Prediction made showed that the built-up of Akure would expand to 2.66% in 2022. The study recommends review of the outdated 1980 master plan and development control mechanism that will guide the rapid expansion that had been accompanied by loss of vegetation in Akure.
非洲城市正在经历不受控制的扩张。本文的重点是评价1972 - 2009年城市扩张对阿库雷土地利用类型的影响。利用1972年MSS、1986年Landsat Thematic™和Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) 2002年和2009年从google earth网站获取的卫星图像,进行分类后对比分析,绘制了阿库雷土地利用/土地覆盖变化的空间动态,并确定了城市扩张。问卷调查也被用来确定负责Akure扩张的因素。结果表明:1972年至1986年,阿库雷市建成区面积从1.00%迅速扩大到2.46%,1986年为2.46%,2002年为3.90%,年增长率分别为10.63%和3.66%。据预测,到2022年,阿库雷的建成率将扩大到2.66%。该研究建议审查过时的1980年总体规划和发展控制机制,这些规划和机制将指导伴随着阿库雷植被损失的快速扩张。
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引用次数: 9
Bike Sharing and Car Trips in the City: The Case of Healthy Ride Pittsburgh 城市中的自行车共享和汽车出行:以匹兹堡健康骑行为例
Pub Date : 2016-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2853543
K. Pelechrinis, Beibei Li, Sean Qian
With the ubiquitous development of mobile technologies, many cities today have installed mobile-enabled bike sharing systems - both publicly and privately owned - in an effort to nudge dwellers towards a more sustainable mode of transportation. However, there is little evidence - apart from anecdote stories - for the success of these systems. In this work we are focusing on analyzing the impact of a shared bike system on the parking demand. The latter can be thought of as a lower bound for the car trips generated towards a specific area and has implications towards potential substitution effects between driving and biking. In particular, we use data from Healthy Ride, the newly installed shared bike system in the city of Pittsburgh, combined with data we obtained from the Pittsburgh Parking Authority, and using the difference-in-differences framework we quantify the impact of the bike stations on the parking demand around them. Our findings provide evidence that even when controlling for the lost parking space (used to build the parking stations) the parking demand in the nearby areas was reduced by approximately 2%. This can have significant implications that shared bike systems can shift transportation modes, which consequently can have rippling effects for the economy and environment. In particular, our follow-up analyses indicate that the new bike share system could lead to a monthly reduction of 0.82 metric tones CO2 emissions per square mile, or approximately 4,381 metric tones of CO2 in the metro area of Pittsburgh!
随着移动技术无处不在的发展,如今许多城市都安装了可移动的自行车共享系统——包括公共和私人拥有的——以推动居民采用更可持续的交通方式。然而,除了轶事故事之外,几乎没有证据表明这些系统取得了成功。在这项工作中,我们的重点是分析共享自行车系统对停车需求的影响。后者可以被认为是通往特定区域的汽车旅行的下限,并对驾驶和骑自行车之间的潜在替代效应有影响。特别地,我们使用了来自匹兹堡市新安装的共享自行车系统“健康骑行”的数据,并结合了我们从匹兹堡停车管理局获得的数据,并使用差异中的差异框架,我们量化了自行车站对周围停车需求的影响。我们的研究结果提供的证据表明,即使控制了停车空间的损失(用于建设停车场),附近地区的停车需求也减少了约2%。这可能会产生重大影响,共享单车系统可以改变交通方式,从而对经济和环境产生连锁反应。特别是,我们的后续分析表明,新的自行车共享系统可以导致每月每平方英里减少0.82公吨二氧化碳排放量,或在匹兹堡市区减少约4381公吨二氧化碳排放量!
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引用次数: 5
Chart Pattern in Climate Time Series Data 气候时间序列数据的图表模式
Pub Date : 2016-09-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3250759
J. Kaiser
The application of chart pattern, or technical, analysis to climate time series data is demonstrated. The technique is known in the field of finance to perform predictions of future changes in prices. It is shown that global average temperature anomalies (HadCRUT4) clearly formed an ascending triangle chart pattern during the period of global warming hiatus since 1998. Even feature details of the chart pattern have been found, including the steep increase which has been observed recently. Relevance and benefit of the chart pattern analysis to research in the global climate system -- or complex physical systems in general -- are discussed.
演示了图表模式或技术分析对气候时间序列数据的应用。这项技术在金融领域被认为是对未来价格变化的预测。结果表明,1998年以来全球变暖停滞期全球平均气温异常(HadCRUT4)明显形成上升三角形图。甚至图表形态的特征细节也被发现了,包括最近观察到的急剧上升。讨论了图表模式分析对全球气候系统或一般复杂物理系统研究的相关性和益处。
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引用次数: 0
Hurricanes, Economic Growth and Transmission Channels - Empirical Evidence for Developed and Underdeveloped Countries 飓风、经济增长和传播渠道——发达国家和不发达国家的经验证据
Pub Date : 2016-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2845284
Michael Berlemann, Daniela Wenzel
While the short-term growth consequences of natural disasters are comparatively well studied, there is little knowledge how disasters affect long-run growth. Based on truly exogenous storm indicators, derived from a meteorological database, we show that the growth effects of tropical storms go well beyond the short-term perspective. These negative growth effects of hurricanes are especially pronounced in underdeveloped countries which have comparatively little possibilities to protect against storm consequences. We show that the negative growth effects in underdeveloped countries are amplified by an increase in net fertility and a decrease in educational efforts in the aftermath of occurring hurricanes.
虽然自然灾害对短期增长的影响研究得比较充分,但灾害对长期增长的影响却知之甚少。基于来自气象数据库的真正外生风暴指标,我们表明热带风暴的增长效应远远超出了短期的观点。飓风对经济增长的负面影响在不发达国家尤其明显,因为这些国家防范风暴后果的可能性相对较小。我们表明,飓风发生后,净生育率的增加和教育努力的减少放大了不发达国家的负增长效应。
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引用次数: 4
Financing the Reconstruction of Public Capital after a Natural Disaster 自然灾害后公共资本重建的融资
Pub Date : 2016-06-21 DOI: 10.1596/1813-9450-7718
D. Bevan, C. Adam
When a natural disaster destroys public capital, these direct losses are exacerbated by indirect losses arising from reduced output while reconstruction takes place. These indirect losses may be much larger, relative to the direct ones, in low-income countries, because they lack the finance for rapid reconstruction. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to examine sovereign disaster risk insurance, increased taxation, and budget reallocation as alternative financing mechanisms for countries where increased borrowing is impractical. The analysis suggests that insurance may or may not be helpful, depending on detailed circumstances, and that budget reallocation is potentially very damaging. Raised taxation, if feasible, may be an attractive option.
当自然灾害摧毁公共资本时,这些直接损失会因重建期间产出减少而造成的间接损失而加剧。在低收入国家,由于缺乏快速重建的资金,这些间接损失可能比直接损失大得多。本文使用一个动态一般均衡模型来考察主权灾害风险保险、增加税收和预算再分配作为增加借贷不切实际的国家的替代融资机制。分析表明,保险可能有帮助,也可能没有帮助,这取决于具体情况,预算重新分配可能非常具有破坏性。如果可行的话,提高税收可能是一个有吸引力的选择。
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引用次数: 17
Infrastructure Financing and Urban Development in Nigeria 尼日利亚的基础设施融资和城市发展
Pub Date : 2016-05-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2784497
D. Dabara, Ankeli Ikpeme Anthony, J. Guyimu, E. Oladimeji, Oyeleke Oyediran
The availability of adequate infrastructure facilities is imperative for the overall economic development of any country. However, developing countries like Nigeria are particularly bedeviled by issues of adequate infrastructure financing and this has great consequences on its citizenry. The aim of this study is to evaluate infrastructure financing strategies and its effect on urban development in Nigeria with a view to providing information that will guide policy makers in the country particularly and similar developing economies in general in making informed decisions on their infrastructure investment strategies. The theoretical research approach was adopted for this study. The study revealed that inadequate investment in basic infrastructure (due to severe budget constraints) and the rapid rate of urbanization in Nigeria is putting considerable strain on the nation's limited infrastructure. Hence, there is a need for large and continuing amounts of investments in almost all areas of infrastructure in Nigeria. Similarly, investment in maintaining existing infrastructure has suffered gross neglect, leaving the country with degraded and inefficient infrastructure services; this is compounded by unprecedented urban growth in major urban centers such as Lagos, Abuja and Port-Harcourt. This has resulted into the explosion of informal settlements (slums) in and around these major cities. This ugly situation is occasioned by mainly lack of long-term funds for infrastructure financing; uncertain political/economic environment; fear of policy reversals by successive governments as typical infrastructure projects span over long periods, etc. In Nigeria, the government has been the sole financier of infrastructural projects and has often taken responsibility for implementation, operations and maintenance as well. There is a need for paradigm shift in this respect as this may not be the best way to execute/finance these projects. It is obvious that the government alone cannot adequately shoulder the responsibility of infrastructure financing, therefore, to ensure urban development in Nigeria; this study recommends the involvement of the private sector in infrastructure financing. Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) offer a promising solution to the financing needs of the country as it could attract foreign investments. It is recommended that infrastructure investments should be made in such a way as to recover the invested resources through a system of user charges. This means that the services of investment projects in the country should no more be continued as a free good.
充足的基础设施对任何国家的全面经济发展都是必不可少的。然而,像尼日利亚这样的发展中国家尤其受到充足基础设施融资问题的困扰,这对其公民产生了巨大影响。本研究的目的是评估基础设施融资战略及其对尼日利亚城市发展的影响,以期提供信息,指导该国特别是类似发展中经济体的决策者就其基础设施投资战略做出明智的决策。本研究采用理论研究的方法。该研究显示,尼日利亚对基础设施的投资不足(由于严重的预算限制)和城市化的快速发展给该国有限的基础设施带来了相当大的压力。因此,在尼日利亚几乎所有基础设施领域都需要大量和持续的投资。同样,维护现有基础设施的投资也受到严重忽视,使该国的基础设施服务退化和效率低下;拉各斯、阿布贾和哈科特港等主要城市中心前所未有的城市增长加剧了这种情况。这导致了这些主要城市及其周围非正式定居点(贫民窟)的激增。造成这种糟糕局面的主要原因是缺乏基础设施融资的长期资金;不确定的政治/经济环境;由于典型的基础设施项目跨度较长,对历届政府政策逆转的担忧等等。在尼日利亚,政府一直是基础设施项目的唯一资助者,并经常承担实施、运营和维护的责任。在这方面有必要进行范式转换,因为这可能不是执行/资助这些项目的最佳方式。因此,很明显,仅靠政府无法充分承担基础设施融资的责任,以确保尼日利亚的城市发展;本研究建议私营部门参与基础设施融资。公私伙伴关系(PPP)为该国的融资需求提供了一个有希望的解决方案,因为它可以吸引外国投资。建议在进行基础设施投资时,应通过用户收费制度收回所投资的资源。这意味着该国投资项目的服务不应再作为免费商品继续存在。
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引用次数: 3
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Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal
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