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Self-Reported Weather Shocks and Extreme Weather Data: Evidence From Vietnam 自我报告的天气冲击和极端天气数据:来自越南的证据
Pub Date : 2019-12-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3507541
Trung-Thanh Nguyen
Analysis of rural vulnerability to weather shocks requires an accurate exposure record. Both self-reported and weather data records have been used with potential biases. We are the first to evaluate these biases by constructing two comparable records: self-reported weather shocks from a rural household panel dataset and measured weather shocks from weather data. Despite their positive relationship and similar average welfare effects, the two records display a large discrepancy. Being endogenous, the self-reported record introduces the attenuation bias in analysing non-farm diversification in response to shocks. We suggest to instrument the self-reported shock with the measured shock for better analytical quality.
分析农村对天气冲击的脆弱性需要准确的暴露记录。自我报告和天气数据记录都存在潜在的偏差。我们首先通过构建两个可比较的记录来评估这些偏差:来自农村家庭面板数据集的自我报告天气冲击和来自天气数据的测量天气冲击。尽管两者之间存在正相关关系,平均福利效应相似,但这两项记录显示出很大的差异。由于是内生的,自我报告记录在分析应对冲击的非农业多样化时引入了衰减偏差。我们建议将自我报告的冲击与测量的冲击一起测量,以提高分析质量。
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引用次数: 0
Performance Evaluation of Public Transportation System: Analyzing the Case of Dhaka, Bangladesh 公共交通系统绩效评价:以孟加拉国达卡为例分析
Pub Date : 2019-08-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3560667
R. Ahasan, A. Kabir
Performance evaluation of the public transportation system is gaining substantial importance and becoming a prerequisite to making the emerging urban life sustainable. Despite the presence of public transportation since the 1960s, efforts had never been made to evaluate the efficiency of the system in Dhaka city, the capital of Bangladesh. This research was conducted using performance measurement indicators that are detailed and indispensable in appraising the socio-economic condition of Dhaka city to assess the existing condition and performance of the public transportation system. Service and system efficiency, along with cost, utilization, and network efficiency were measured from both passengers and operator’s perspective for the evaluation process. The quality and the Level of Service found to be meager, which is the same in the case of efficiency for the system, network, and cost. The exception was observed only with the utilization of some system features. The single major cause related to every other problem of the existing transportation situation in the city found to be the congestion in the streets. However, the promising fact about the present system is the initiation of mass rapid transit options and the preparation of separate policy for the public transportation system of Dhaka.
公共交通系统的性能评估越来越重要,并成为使新兴城市生活可持续发展的先决条件。尽管自1960年代以来就有了公共交通工具,但从未努力评价孟加拉国首都达卡市的公共交通系统的效率。本研究使用绩效测量指标进行,这些指标在评估达卡市的社会经济状况时是详细和不可或缺的,以评估公共交通系统的现有状况和绩效。在评估过程中,从乘客和运营商的角度衡量了服务和系统效率,以及成本、利用率和网络效率。服务的质量和水平是贫乏的,在系统、网络和成本的效率方面也是如此。只有在使用某些系统特性时才观察到例外情况。与城市现有交通状况的所有其他问题相关的唯一主要原因是街道拥堵。然而,目前系统的一个有希望的事实是,开始了大规模快速运输的选择,并为达卡的公共交通系统制订了单独的政策。
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引用次数: 5
Governing the 'Good Citizen' and Shaping the 'Model City' to Tackle Climate Change: Materiality, Economic Discourse and Exemplarity 治理“好公民”和塑造“模范城市”以应对气候变化:物质性、经济话语和范例性
Pub Date : 2019-07-31 DOI: 10.1108/sampj-02-2018-0038
Roger Berquier, Delphine Gibassier
PurposeCities are key actors in the fight against climate change. They have developed integrated strategies harnessing the power of information and communication technologies (ICT) as part of the move towards smart(er) cities. In spite of our knowledge of the role of technological infrastructure in tackling climate change, the role of governance mechanisms to actively pursue environmental sustainability is often understated. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analyse governmentality mechanisms developed by a small town in Europe to render energy savings and new energy sources visible and to create new identities with which the citizen and other cities could then identify with, thereby participating in the fight against climate change.Design/methodology/approachData were gathered through non-participant observation, interviews and access to internal data from the city’s energy control project.FindingsThe outcome of these governmentality mechanisms was to create two new identities: the “good citizen”, responsible to lower his impact on climate change, and the “model city”, a laboratory that would serve as a guide for future policies to tackle climate change at the city level. While the “model city” was successful and identification happened with other small cities taking example from it, the “good citizen” failed and inhabitants did not identify with this role model that was defined for them as a way to participate in the fight against climate change.Practical implicationsThis case study is a concrete example, based on a longitudinal study, of a city’s strategy and actions on climate change. Other small cities will be able to use this case study to gauge their possibilities for action on climate change. Notably, it is an example of how a network of mechanisms can achieve results in CO2 emissions reduction. It also demonstrates the difficulty to enrol citizens into an environmental sustainability scheme.Social implicationsThis paper has implications for how climate change can be tackled in rural areas by small cities. While the role of organizations and large cities (e.g. C40 city network) has been acknowledged, there is a possibility for smaller local actors to act upon grand challenges with local strategies and their own governmentality mechanisms.Originality/valueThe case study contributes to the literature on cities, bringing new insights into how they can become actors of climate change beyond acting on internal controls, and the literature on governmentality by demonstrating how mechanisms can act upon a population without being calculative.
目标是应对气候变化的关键行动者。他们已经制定了综合战略,利用信息和通信技术(ICT)的力量,作为迈向智能(er)城市的一部分。尽管我们知道技术基础设施在应对气候变化方面的作用,但积极追求环境可持续性的治理机制的作用往往被低估。因此,本文的目的是分析欧洲一个小镇开发的治理机制,使节能和新能源可见,并创造公民和其他城市可以认同的新身份,从而参与应对气候变化的斗争。设计/方法/方法通过非参与式观察、访谈和访问城市能源控制项目的内部数据来收集数据。这些治理机制的结果是创造了两种新的身份:“好公民”,负责降低自己对气候变化的影响;“模范城市”,一个实验室,将为未来在城市层面应对气候变化的政策提供指导。虽然“模范城市”是成功的,其他小城市也以此为榜样,但“好公民”却失败了,居民们并不认同这个为他们定义的参与应对气候变化的榜样。本案例研究是一个基于纵向研究的城市应对气候变化战略和行动的具体案例。其他小城市将能够利用这一案例研究来衡量它们采取行动应对气候变化的可能性。值得注意的是,这是一个机制网络如何在减少二氧化碳排放方面取得成果的例子。这也表明了让公民参与环境可持续性计划的困难。这篇论文对小城市如何在农村地区应对气候变化具有启示意义。虽然组织和大城市(例如C40城市网络)的作用已经得到承认,但较小的地方行动者有可能通过地方战略和自己的治理机制来应对重大挑战。原创性/价值本案例研究对城市相关文献做出了贡献,为城市如何在内部控制之外成为气候变化的参与者提供了新的见解,并通过展示机制如何在不经过计算的情况下作用于人口,为治理相关文献提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 9
Climate Change and the Public Trust Doctrine in Oregon: A Law Professors' Amicus Brief 俄勒冈州的气候变化和公共信托原则:一位法学教授的法庭之友简报
Pub Date : 2019-07-16 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3420549
M. Blumm, M. Wood
This brief to the Oregon Supreme Court supports youth plaintiffs' claims that the state's failure to develop and implement a scientifically based plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid a climate catastrophe violates the state's public trust doctrine. The brief reviews the history and application of the state's public trust doctrine in some detail. One-hundred and seven law professors from all over the country and the world signed on to the brief.
这份提交给俄勒冈州最高法院的摘要支持了青年原告的主张,即该州未能制定和实施一项基于科学的计划来减少温室气体排放,以避免气候灾难,违反了该州的公共信托原则。简要地回顾了国家公共信托原则的历史和应用。来自全国和世界各地的107位法学教授在这份摘要上签了名。
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引用次数: 0
Reassessing Sampling Bias in Climate-Conflict Research 重新评估气候冲突研究中的抽样偏差
Pub Date : 2019-06-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3440207
Cullen S. Hendrix, Tasia Poinsatte
Is research into the links between climate change and conflict biased, and does this bias undermine our ability to draw conclusions about climate-conflict links? Adams et al. (2018, henceforth AIBD) argue the literature on climate-conflict links suffers from endemic sample selection bias. Because of this, the literature overstates links between climate change and conflict. In this article, we revisit the issue of sampling bias in climate-conflict research using a broader measure of scholarly interest based on bibliometric data from Google Scholar searches of some leading journals in the climate-conflict literature. We find i) weaker evidence of sampling on the dependent variable (armed conflict), but some sampling on types of conflict that fit with posited mechanisms and conflict typologies in the climate-conflict literature, and argue that some oversampling of conflict-prone cases may be a warranted; ii) researchers are sampling on the independent variable, with countries more exposed to climate stress receiving more attention; and iii) even stronger evidence of a streetlight effect, with former British colonies and countries of more general interest to scholars and the international community — as proxied by country-specific studies indexed by the Library of Congress and UNESCO World Heritage Sites — receiving greater attention. Thus, our findings both confirm and challenge existing conclusions in the debate over sampling bias in climate-conflict research. While researchers are sampling on climate change stress, the streetlight effect is stronger than previously suggested. This streetlight effect poses significant challenges for research and policy communities: how confidently can we generalize from well-studied cases? Does the streetlight effect diminish our ability to identify the specific economic, political, and social contexts in which climate-related conflicts occur? And finally, should funding agencies take the accumulating evidence for a streetlight effect into account when making funding decisions and prioritizing particular countries and world regions?
对气候变化和冲突之间联系的研究是否存在偏见?这种偏见是否会削弱我们得出气候冲突联系结论的能力?Adams等人(2018年,以下简称AIBD)认为,关于气候冲突联系的文献存在地方性的样本选择偏差。正因为如此,文献夸大了气候变化和冲突之间的联系。在这篇文章中,我们重新审视了气候冲突研究中的抽样偏差问题,使用了更广泛的学术兴趣测量方法,该方法基于Google Scholar对气候冲突文献中一些主要期刊的文献计量数据的搜索。我们发现i)对因变量(武装冲突)进行抽样的证据较弱,但对符合气候冲突文献中假设的机制和冲突类型的冲突类型进行了一些抽样,并认为对容易发生冲突的情况进行一些过度抽样可能是有必要的;Ii)研究人员正在对自变量进行抽样,更容易受到气候压力的国家受到更多关注;iii)路灯效应的证据更加有力,前英国殖民地和学者和国际社会更普遍感兴趣的国家——以美国国会图书馆和联合国教科文组织世界遗产名录上的国别研究为代表——受到了更多的关注。因此,我们的研究结果既证实了气候冲突研究中抽样偏差争论中的现有结论,也对其提出了挑战。虽然研究人员正在对气候变化压力进行抽样调查,但路灯的影响比之前认为的要大。这种路灯效应给研究和政策团体带来了重大挑战:我们如何自信地从经过充分研究的案例中得出结论?路灯效应是否削弱了我们识别气候相关冲突发生的具体经济、政治和社会背景的能力?最后,资助机构在做出资助决定和优先考虑特定国家和世界地区时,是否应该考虑到路灯效应的累积证据?
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引用次数: 2
Paying for Mitigation: How New Zealand Can Contribute to Others’ Efforts 为缓解付出代价:新西兰如何为其他国家的努力作出贡献
Pub Date : 2019-04-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3477065
Suzi Kerr, Catherine Leining
Purchasing international emission reductions (IERs) can help New Zealand make a more ambitious and cost-effective contribution toward global climate change mitigation and support developing countries in accelerating their low-emission transition. However, New Zealand must avoid past mistakes by ensuring international purchasing does not derail its own decarbonisation pathway. Furthermore, the Paris Agreement has fundamentally changed how countries will trade IERs over the 2021–30 period. This working paper, which evolved under Motu’s ETS Dialogue process from 2016 to 2018, focuses on how we can balance our international and domestic mitigation efforts. It explores how many IERs we may want, how we should integrate international mitigation support with participants’ obligations under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), and what mechanisms we can use to fund international mitigation effectively. Fundamentally, the New Zealand government will need to ensure that all IERs counted toward its targets and accepted in the NZ ETS have environmental integrity and are both approved and not double counted by seller and buyer governments. This paper presents a working model for New Zealand’s purchase of IERs, in which the quantity is controlled by government, purchasing is managed by government for the foreseeable future (with potential participation by private entities), and the quantity is factored into decisions on the NZ ETS cap and price management mechanisms. If NZ ETS participants are able to purchase IERs in the future, then a quantity limit should apply as a percentage of the surrender obligation and the volume should offset other supply under the cap. The paper also highlights an innovative “climate team” mechanism for international climate change cooperation that could facilitate purchasing by the New Zealand government. Two companion working papers address interactions between decisions on international purchasing and the choice of NZ ETS cap and price management mechanisms. The three working papers elaborate on an integrated proposal for managing unit supply, prices, and linking in the NZ ETS that was presented in Kerr et al. (2017).
购买国际减排量可以帮助新西兰为减缓全球气候变化作出更有雄心和更具成本效益的贡献,并支持发展中国家加速其低排放转型。然而,新西兰必须避免过去的错误,确保国际采购不会破坏自己的脱碳之路。此外,《巴黎协定》从根本上改变了各国在2021年至2030年期间的贸易方式。这份工作文件是根据Motu的碳排放交易体系对话进程从2016年到2018年演变而来的,重点是我们如何平衡国际和国内的减排努力。它探讨了我们可能需要多少个国际减排机构,我们应该如何将国际减排支持与参与者在新西兰排放交易计划(NZ ETS)下的义务结合起来,以及我们可以利用哪些机制有效地为国际减排提供资金。从根本上说,新西兰政府需要确保所有计入其目标并在新西兰排放交易体系中被接受的IERs都具有环境完整性,并且得到卖方和买方政府的批准,而不是重复计算。本文提出了一个适用于新西兰碳排放权购买的工作模型,其中数量由政府控制,采购在可预见的未来由政府管理(私人实体可能参与),数量被纳入新西兰碳排放交易体系上限和价格管理机制的决策中。如果新西兰排放交易体系的参与者能够在未来购买IERs,那么数量限制应按照交出义务的百分比适用,并且数量应抵消上限下的其他供应。该文件还强调了国际气候变化合作的创新“气候团队”机制,该机制可以促进新西兰政府的购买。两份配套的工作文件讨论了国际采购决策与新西兰排放交易体系限额和价格管理机制选择之间的相互作用。这三篇工作论文详细阐述了Kerr等人(2017年)提出的管理新西兰碳排放交易体系单位供应、价格和链接的综合建议。
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引用次数: 16
Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Special Context to Paris Agreement 气候变化与可持续发展:《巴黎协定》的特殊背景
Pub Date : 2019-03-20 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3356829
P. Sharma, P. Payal
Sustainable development is basic requirement to cope up with the hazardous nature of climate change. Climate change and its consequences in our daily lives have been a universally recognized major problem since decades. We are experiencing varying weather patterns, rising sea levels, and extreme climate conditions day by day. It is rising due to excessive emissions of Greenhouse gases from several human development activities which is now at its highest level. The Paris Agreement brought the nations closer for the first time into a common cause of determined actions to combat climate change and encouraging enhanced support to developing countries in this regard. The Paris Agreement central aim is to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change. This paper is majorly focusing on governance of Goal 13 of SDGs which has been a matter of multi-decadal debate. After various significant agreements on climate change, Paris agreement 2015 was adopted by countries at COP 21 in Paris which underwent a great hostility of nations. This paper also includes the economic impact of Global Warming in the world.
可持续发展是应对气候变化危害性的基本要求。几十年来,气候变化及其对我们日常生活的影响一直是一个普遍公认的重大问题。我们每天都在经历不同的天气模式、海平面上升和极端气候条件。由于一些人类发展活动造成的温室气体的过度排放,目前处于最高水平,因此它正在上升。《巴黎协定》首次使各国更接近于采取坚定行动应对气候变化的共同事业,并鼓励在这方面加强对发展中国家的支持。《巴黎协定》的中心目标是加强全球对气候变化威胁的应对。本文主要关注可持续发展目标13的治理,这是一个几十年来争论的问题。在各种重要的气候变化协议之后,在巴黎第21届缔约方会议上,各国通过了《2015年巴黎协定》,这经历了各国的巨大敌意。本文还包括全球变暖对世界经济的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Seasonal and Periodic Autoregressive Time Series Models Used for Forecasting Analysis of Rainfall Data 季节性和周期性自回归时间序列模型用于降雨数据的预测分析
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.34218/ijaret.10.1.2019.023
S. Kaur, Madhuchanda Rakshit
The amount of rainfall received over an area is an important factor in assessing availability of water to meet various demands for agriculture, industry, irrigation, generation of hydroelectricity and other human activities. In our study, we consider seasonal and periodic time series models for statistical analysis of rainfall data of Punjab, India. In this research paper we apply the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Periodic autoregressive model to analyse the rainfall data of Punjab. For evaluation of the model identification and periodic stationarity the statistical tool used are PeACF and PePACF. For model comparison we use Root mean square percentage error and forecast encompassing test. The results of this research will provide local authorities to develop strategic plans and appropriate use of available water resources.
一个地区的降雨量是评估是否有足够的水来满足农业、工业、灌溉、水力发电和其他人类活动的各种需要的一个重要因素。在我们的研究中,我们考虑了季节和周期时间序列模型的统计分析,旁遮普邦,印度的降雨数据。本文采用季节自回归综合移动平均和周期自回归模型对旁遮普省的降水资料进行分析。用于评估模型识别和周期平稳性的统计工具是PeACF和PePACF。对于模型比较,我们使用均方根误差百分比和预测包含检验。这项研究的结果将为地方当局制定战略计划和适当利用现有水资源提供帮助。
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引用次数: 4
Future Climate Wealth of Nations 未来气候国家财富
Pub Date : 2018-10-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3275029
Julia M. Puaschunder
A 3-dimensional climate justice approach introduces to share the benefits and burden of climate change in an economically efficient, legally equitable and practically feasible way around the globe. Climate justice within a country pays tribute to low- and high income households carrying the same burden proportional to their dispensable income through consumption tax, progressive carbon taxation and a corporate inheritance tax. Climate change burden sharing between countries ensures those countries benefiting more from a warmer environment bear higher responsibility regarding climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate justice over time is proposed by an innovative bonds climate change burden sharing strategy (Puaschunder, 2018, forthcoming).
三维气候正义方法介绍了在全球范围内以经济高效、法律公平和实际可行的方式分享气候变化的利益和负担。通过消费税、累进碳税和企业遗产税,一个国家内的气候正义向承担与其可支配收入成比例的相同负担的低收入和高收入家庭致敬。各国之间分担气候变化负担,确保那些从环境变暖中受益更多的国家在减缓和适应气候变化方面承担更大的责任。一种创新的债券气候变化负担分担策略提出了随着时间的推移的气候正义(Puaschunder, 2018,即将出版)。
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引用次数: 2
Advances in Analyzing and Measuring Dynamic Economic Resilience 动态经济弹性分析与测度研究进展
Pub Date : 2018-10-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3271921
A. Rose, N. Dormady
This chapter places into the broader context of an analytical framework recent research findings and policy initiatives relating to dynamic economic resilience, which is usually defined as speeding up and/or shortening the duration of recovery from disasters. Our purpose is to offer insights into the operation and implications of both of these innovations. The first pertains to research that indicates that accelerating the pace of economic recovery has much greater potential for reducing disaster losses than does compressing its duration. The second pertains to supplementing the constructing and protecting of the built environment with the resilience strategy of embedding ways of repairing and reconstructing it more quickly in the aftermath of a disaster. We first provide a context for the analysis. We next explain why the standard definition of dynamic economic resilience should be augmented to consider the entire time-path of recovery. We then explain the concept of inherent dynamic economic resilience and indicate how both innovations help clarify its definition. We conclude with an outline of our ongoing research to measure dynamic economic resilience.
本章将更广泛的分析框架置于与动态经济复原力相关的最新研究成果和政策举措的背景下,动态经济复原力通常被定义为加速和/或缩短灾后恢复时间。我们的目的是对这两种创新的运作和影响提供见解。第一项研究表明,加快经济复苏的步伐比缩短灾难持续时间更有可能减少灾害损失。第二种是利用弹性策略来补充建筑环境的建设和保护,即在灾难发生后更快地修复和重建。我们首先为分析提供一个背景。接下来,我们将解释为什么动态经济弹性的标准定义应该扩大,以考虑复苏的整个时间路径。然后,我们解释了内在动态经济弹性的概念,并指出这两种创新如何有助于澄清其定义。最后,我们概述了我们正在进行的测量动态经济弹性的研究。
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引用次数: 10
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Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal
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