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Dynamic Patterns of Structural Change and Economic Growth during the High Growth Regime in India: A Panel Data Analysis 印度高增长时期结构变化与经济增长的动态模式:面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2015-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-3-2-4
M. R. Singariya
Using panel data collected from the CSO for thirty two states and UTs of India for the recent period of 2004-05 to 2013-14 at the constant 2004-05 prices, the present paper highlights the effect of structural change on economic growth. We examine these relationships in an augmented Chenery-Syrquin Model, and test whether the high income states, EAG (Empowered Action Group) States and high densely states have had any structural impact and what type of structural trends have been adopted by the economy in such a high growth period. Results of random effect model show that any increases in the shares of manufacturing sector and industrial sectors (mining and Quarrying, manufacturing and construction) have significant positive effect on economic growth (Income Coefficient), while the patterns of industrial sector has significant positive effects on population density (Size Coefficient). However, the coefficient of population density is insignificant yet positive for manufacturing orientation. These relationships suggest that most densely populated states can achieve economies of scale, resource endowments and scale of domestic demand easily and hence population density plays an important role in the patterns of industrial and manufacturing development. The time trend seems to have significant negative association with industrial orientation and dummy for high income states has significant positive association with service sector and significant negative association with agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
本文利用中央统计局收集的2004-05年至2013-14年期间印度32个邦和自治区的面板数据,以2004-05年的恒定价格为基础,强调了结构变化对经济增长的影响。我们在增强型切尼-西奎因模型中检验了这些关系,并检验了高收入州、EAG(授权行动组)州和人口密度高的州是否产生了结构性影响,以及在如此高增长时期,经济采用了哪种类型的结构性趋势。随机效应模型的结果表明,制造业和工业部门(采矿业、制造业和建筑业)份额的增加对经济增长(收入系数)有显著的正影响,而工业部门的格局对人口密度(规模系数)有显著的正影响。人口密度对制造业取向的影响不显著,但对制造业取向的影响为正。这些关系表明,人口最密集的国家更容易实现规模经济、资源禀赋和国内需求规模,因此人口密度在工业和制造业发展模式中起着重要作用。时间趋势与产业取向呈显著负相关,高收入州与服务业呈显著正相关,与农业和制造业呈显著负相关。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of ADP on GDP in Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach ADP对孟加拉国GDP的影响:协整方法
Pub Date : 2015-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-3-2-1
M. Uddin, N. Chowdhury, Mudabber Ahmed
The main purpose of this paper is to introduce and interpret the relation between governments Annual Development Programme (ADP) and economic growth. ADP traditionally holds the main structure of Bangladesh economy. We consider ADP is the main determinant of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Bangladesh and also consider the Gross Capital Formation (GCF) for more reliable results. This paper uses various econometric tools where time series analysis is gained main focus to find out the proper result. According to our result, there is a positive impact of ADP on economic development. Findings point out that keeping the high level of public planning in Bangladesh together with improvement in institutional surroundings would be beneficial for economic growth. It has been widely documented that ADP can promote economic growth, when it is efficiently handled by the authority.
本文的主要目的是介绍和解释政府年度发展计划(ADP)与经济增长之间的关系。ADP传统上是孟加拉国经济的主要结构。我们认为ADP是孟加拉国国内生产总值(GDP)的主要决定因素,同时也考虑总资本形成(GCF)以获得更可靠的结果。本文运用了多种计量经济工具,并以时间序列分析为重点,寻找合适的结果。根据我们的研究结果,ADP对经济发展有积极的影响。调查结果指出,在孟加拉国保持高水平的公共规划,同时改善体制环境,将有利于经济增长。广泛的文献证明,当当局有效地处理ADP时,ADP可以促进经济增长。
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引用次数: 4
Identification of the Educational Clusters in the Regional Economy: Theory, Methodology and Research Results (in Example of Perm Krai) 区域经济中教育集群的识别:理论、方法与研究成果(以彼尔姆边疆区为例)
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-4-7
Kovaleva T.Yu., V. G. Baleevskih
Article provides an algorithm and defined criteria for the identification of educational clusters in the regional economy, adapted to the Russian reality. Identification of the leading industries as promising regional educational clusters in the economy of Perm Krai conducted on the basis of quantitative Shift-Share analysis and the calculation of the localization coefficient. Statistical base of the research were materials of the central statistical database of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for 2007-2012 years by employment indicators. Qualitative diagnosis of educational clusters allowed to establish the shape and direction of development of strategic partnership in the educational system in the region, to identify the factors of competition. As a result, by applying a set of quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis of cluster, authors found that in the economy of Perm Krai has four potential educational clusters to be formed, the development of which should be a priority of educational policy in the region.
本文提出了一种适合俄罗斯实际的区域经济教育集群识别算法和标准。在定量偏移-份额分析和本土化系数计算的基础上,对彼尔姆边疆区经济中具有发展潜力的区域教育集群主导产业进行了识别。本研究的统计依据是2007-2012年俄罗斯联邦国家统计局中央统计数据库的就业指标资料。对教育集群进行定性诊断,确立区域内教育系统战略伙伴关系的形态和发展方向,识别竞争因素。因此,笔者运用一套定量和定性的集群分析方法发现,在彼尔姆边疆区经济中存在四个潜在的教育集群,其发展应成为该地区教育政策的优先事项。
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引用次数: 4
Does Remittance in Nepal Cause Gross Domestic Product? An Empirical Evidence Using Vector Error Correction Model 尼泊尔的汇款是否影响国内生产总值?基于矢量误差修正模型的实证研究
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-5-1
K. Dhungel
This study aims to investigate short and long run causality between the variable gross domestic product and remittance. The study is based on the estimation of vector error correction model. Testing the unit root and the co-integration is the basic requirement for the estimation of vector error correction model. Further, it also has estimated remittance elasticity using ordinary least square method. The finding reveals that the contribution of remittance in gross domestic product is only 0.07%. It means a 1% change in remittance will change the gross domestic product by only 0.07%. It indicates that the remittance what Nepal received from its migrants is being consumed, not saved and invested in the productive sector that can create gainful employment to the generation to come. Evidence has not support the hypothesis of remittance causes gross domestic product in the long run but there is strong evidence about the short run causality running from remittance to gross domestic product. But opposite is true in reverse order. Gross domestic product causes remittance in both short and long run.
本研究旨在探讨变动的国内生产总值与汇款之间的短期和长期因果关系。该研究是基于矢量误差修正模型的估计。单位根检验和协整检验是矢量误差修正模型估计的基本要求。此外,还利用普通最小二乘法对汇款弹性进行了估计。结果表明,汇款对国内生产总值的贡献仅为0.07%。这意味着1%的汇款变化只会使国内生产总值变化0.07%。这表明尼泊尔从其移民那里收到的汇款正在被消费,而不是被储蓄和投资于能够为下一代创造有酬就业的生产部门。从长期来看,没有证据支持汇款导致国内生产总值的假设,但有强有力的证据表明,从汇款到国内生产总值之间存在短期因果关系。反之亦然。国内生产总值对汇款有短期和长期的影响。
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引用次数: 16
Estimation of Short and Long Run Equilibrium Coefficients in Error Correction Model: An Empirical Evidence from Nepal 误差修正模型中短期和长期均衡系数的估计:来自尼泊尔的经验证据
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-6-1
K. Dhungel
This study aims to investigate the short and long run equilibrium between the electricity consumption and foreign aid of Nepalese economy during 1974-2012. Unit root test, co-integration test and finally error correction model are the econometric tools to establish the relationship between electricity consumption and foreign aid. In addition to this ordinary least square method is used to find out the foreign aid elasticity and spurious regression. The findings reveal that the variables are non-stationary at their level and they become stationary in their first difference. There are two co-integration equations showing the long run relationship between electricity consumption and foreign aid. There is short and long run equilibrium as indicated by the statistically significant coefficient of foreign aid and error correction term. The long run elasticity coefficient reveals that the 1% change in foreign aid will change the electricity consumption by 0.46%. The results of ECM indicate that there is both short and long run equilibrium in the system. The coefficient of one period lag residual is negative and significant which represent the long run equilibrium. The coefficient is -0.336 meaning that system corrects its previous period disequilibrium at a speed of 33.6% annually to reach at the steady state.
本研究旨在探讨1974-2012年尼泊尔经济的电力消费与外援之间的短期和长期均衡。单位根检验、协整检验和误差修正模型是建立用电量与外援关系的计量工具。在此基础上,利用普通最小二乘法求解外援弹性和伪回归。研究结果表明,变量在其水平上是非平稳的,并且在其第一次差异中变得平稳。有两个协整方程显示了电力消费与外援之间的长期关系。从外援系数和误差修正项的统计显著性可以看出,中国经济存在短期和长期均衡。长期弹性系数表明,外援每变化1%,用电量就会变化0.46%。ECM结果表明,系统存在短期和长期平衡。一周期滞后残差系数为负且显著,代表长期均衡。该系数为-0.336,意味着系统以每年33.6%的速度纠正其前一时期的不平衡,以达到稳定状态。
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引用次数: 26
Evolution of the Innovation Process Models 创新过程模型的演化
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-4-1
Mikhaylova Anna Alekseevna
The article provides a review of the evolution of scientific concepts on the innovation process. Two main approaches to the innovation process are presented: linear and non-linear, and their distinctive features are defined. Within each approach the main types of models of the innovation process are considered. The stages of formation and development of a linear model of the innovation process are reviewed. Analyzed the influence of various factors on the occurrence of non-linear models of the innovation process. Highlighted the advantages and disadvantages of linear and non-linear approaches to the development of models of the innovation process. The effect of trends in the localization of the innovation process in the current models of the innovation process are studied. The modeling of the innovation process at the present stage is proposed to be considered as a complex, interactive, nonlinear localized learning process.
本文对创新过程中科学观念的演变进行了回顾。提出了创新过程的两种主要方法:线性和非线性,并定义了它们各自的特点。在每种方法中,都考虑了创新过程的主要模型类型。回顾了创新过程线性模型的形成和发展阶段。分析了各种因素对创新过程非线性模型发生的影响。重点介绍了线性和非线性方法在创新过程发展模型中的优缺点。研究了当前创新过程模型中趋势对创新过程定位的影响。提出将现阶段创新过程建模为一个复杂的、交互的、非线性的局部学习过程。
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引用次数: 9
Financial Development and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis 金融发展与经济增长:动态面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-2-1
Khalil Mhadhbi
This paper re-examines the empirical relationship between financial development and economic growth. The data cover the regressions according to the maximum of 110 countries and at least 10. It includes developing and developed countries. The study period extends from 1973 to 2012. Imports results obtained using the Generalized Method of Moments dynamic panel show that the variable that influence a significant and positive economic growth, whatever the sample is the variable that reflects the level of availability of the banking system. Contrary to that extent the credits granted by the financial system to the private sector, even if significant, has a negative influence on growth. Finally, the measure that reflects the financial deepening of the economy seems to depend positively on economic growth for developing countries and negatively for developed country.
本文重新考察了金融发展与经济增长之间的实证关系。这些数据涵盖了最多110个国家和至少10个国家的回归。它包括发展中国家和发达国家。研究时间从1973年到2012年。使用广义矩量法动态面板获得的进口结果表明,无论样本是什么,影响显著且积极的经济增长的变量都是反映银行系统可用性水平的变量。与此相反,金融体系向私营部门提供的信贷,即使规模很大,也会对经济增长产生负面影响。最后,反映经济金融深化的措施似乎对发展中国家的经济增长有积极的依赖,而对发达国家则有消极的依赖。
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引用次数: 39
An Exploration in to the Causal Relationship between Performance Inputs and Traffic of Major Ports in India: A Panel Data Analysis 印度主要港口绩效投入与交通流量因果关系的探讨:面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-2-3
T. Rajasekar, Malabika Deo, Rongzhe Ke
The present research work started with a very simple question: Is there a long run relationship and causality between port performance inputs and port traffic of major ports in India? The study is try to evaluate the long run relationship and causality between port performance inputs and port traffic with the sophisticated panel data models such as unit root, cointegration, error correction model, granger causality, impulse response function and variance decomposition tests of 12 major ports in India over the period of 1993 to 2012. Based on the analysis it is found that there exists long run relationship and causality between port performance inputs and port traffic. The study concluded that the evidence of long run relationship between performance inputs and total traffic, and causality of pre-berthing waiting time and operating expenses unidirectional with port traffic indicate that the major factors influencing port traffic. Over all the results imply that port performance variables that are having the co-integrating relationship with port traffic should be given priority for increasing the port traffic of major ports in India.
目前的研究工作从一个非常简单的问题开始:印度主要港口的港口绩效投入与港口交通之间是否存在长期关系和因果关系?本文采用单位根、协整、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系、脉冲响应函数和方差分解检验等复杂的面板数据模型,对1993 - 2012年印度12个主要港口的港口绩效输入与港口流量之间的长期关系和因果关系进行了评价。通过分析发现,港口绩效投入与港口流量之间存在着长期的因果关系。研究表明,绩效投入与总运量之间存在长期关系,靠泊前等待时间和运营费用与港口交通量单向存在因果关系,表明影响港口交通量的主要因素。总体而言,研究结果表明,要增加印度主要港口的港口交通量,应优先考虑与港口交通量协整关系的港口绩效变量。
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引用次数: 6
Trends of Economic Growth and Population Change in Rajasthan: A District Level Panel Data Investigation 拉贾斯坦邦经济增长和人口变化趋势:地区水平面板数据调查
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-1-3
M. R. Singariya
The present paper highlights the trends of economic growth in the economy of Rajasthan and discusses its relative share in the national economy of India. It reviews the trends of year-wise growth rate of per capita net national product in India, per capita net state domestic product for Rajasthan state and per capita net district domestic product for districts of Rajasthan for the period of 2004-05 to 2012-13. It is indicative of the fact that the economy of Rajasthan has registered many ups and downs in the growth trajectory, but the current decade is a period of fair stability and positive growth. Results of Random Effects Model suggest that one percentage point increase in population will be able to increase per capita NDDP by 1.125 percent for twenty nine districts of Rajasthan. District dummies show that higher per capita district domestic product districts like Rajsamand and Jaisalmer have a significant positive association while Jaipur, Alwar, Jodhpur, Barmer, Bharatpur and Sikar have a significant negative association with population. In low fifteen per capita income districts only Nagaur district was observed as negatively and significantly associated with population, while Baran, Bundi and Sirohi have been observed as significantly and positively associated with the population.
本文重点介绍了拉贾斯坦邦经济增长的趋势,并讨论了其在印度国民经济中的相对份额。它回顾了2004-05年至2012-13年期间印度人均国民生产净值、拉贾斯坦邦人均国内生产净值和拉贾斯坦邦地区人均国内生产净值的年增长率趋势。这表明,拉贾斯坦邦的经济在增长轨迹上经历了许多起伏,但目前的十年是一个相当稳定和正增长的时期。随机效应模型的结果表明,人口增加1个百分点将使拉贾斯坦邦29个县的人均NDDP增加1.125%。地区假人显示,人均国内产品较高的地区,如拉贾斯坦邦和斋萨尔梅尔,与人口有显著的正相关,而斋浦尔、阿尔瓦尔、杰特布尔、巴尔默、巴拉特普尔和西卡尔与人口有显著的负相关。在人均收入较低的15个县中,只有纳戈尔县与人口呈显著负相关,而巴兰、邦迪和西罗希则与人口呈显著正相关。
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引用次数: 0
Parametric Bootstrap Methods for Parameter Estimation in SLR Models 单反模型参数估计的参数自举方法
Pub Date : 2014-01-23 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-2-5-2
C. Acha
The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance of the bootstrap method on external sector statistics (ESS) in the Nigerian economy. It was carried out using the parametric methods and comparing them with a parametric bootstrap method in regression analysis. To achieve this, three general methods of parameter estimation: least-squares estimation (LSE) maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and method of moments (MOM) were used in terms of their betas and standard errors. Secondary quarterly data collected from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin 2012 from 1983-2012 was analyzed using by S-PLUS softwares. Datasets on external sector statistics were used as the basis to define the population and the true standard errors. The sampling distribution of the ESS was found to be a Chi-square distribution and was confirmed using a bootstrap method. The stability of the test statistic was also ascertained. In addition, other parameter estimation methods like R2, R2adj, Akaike Information criterion (AIC), Schwart Bayesian Information criterion (SBIC), Hannan-Quinn Information criterion (HQIC) were used and they confirmed that when the ESS was bootstrapped it turned out to be the best model with 98.9%, 99.9%, 84.9%, 85.4% and 86.7% respectively.
本研究的目的是调查在尼日利亚经济外部部门统计(ESS)的自举方法的性能。采用参数方法进行了分析,并与回归分析中的参数自举法进行了比较。为了实现这一目标,使用了三种常用的参数估计方法:最小二乘估计(LSE)、最大似然估计(MLE)和矩量法(MOM)。采用S-PLUS软件对1983-2012年尼日利亚中央银行统计公报收集的第二季度数据进行分析。使用外部部门统计数据集作为定义人口和真实标准误差的基础。发现ESS的抽样分布为卡方分布,并使用自举法进行了验证。还确定了检验统计量的稳定性。此外,我们还使用了R2、R2adj、Akaike信息准则(AIC)、Schwart Bayesian信息准则(SBIC)、Hannan-Quinn信息准则(HQIC)等参数估计方法,证实了ESS在启动时的最佳模型准确率分别为98.9%、99.9%、84.9%、85.4%和86.7%。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
international journal of research in computer application & management
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