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The Nexus between Buyback, Business Cycle, and Stock Market Volatility 股票回购、经济周期和股市波动之间的关系
Pub Date : 2020-07-20 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-2-3
F. Hamouda, R. Riahi, Tarek Sadraoui
Financial crisis shows significant uncertainties in corporate financing conditions. This study draws on economic conditions toask if buyback programs are related to the business cycle and the stock market volatility. The results show both unidirectional and bidirectional causality between buyback, business cycle and stock market volatility. It also shows that financial crisis plays an important role, suggesting that firms increase their buyback depending on their economic condition.
金融危机显示了企业融资环境的重大不确定性。本研究利用经济条件来询问回购计划是否与商业周期和股票市场波动有关。结果表明,股票回购与经济周期和股市波动之间存在单向和双向的因果关系。金融危机在企业回购中起着重要的作用,这表明企业的回购规模取决于其经济状况。
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引用次数: 2
Cascade Artificial Neural Networks for Modeling Economic Performance: A New Perspective 级联人工神经网络模拟经济绩效:一个新视角
Pub Date : 2020-06-02 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-2-2
A. Mohamed
This paper discusses a new representation for efficiency frontier method through a proposed algorithm for augmented feed forward back propagation neural network models, to estimate the economic performance, and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in Egyptian economy, using a quarter time series data from 1990Q1 to 2019Q2. In this study I develop artificial neural network models - ANN - in line with the conditions of the Egyptian economy, by building an optimal efficiency frontier and then comparing the actual performance of the Egyptian economy with that limit, which includes the lowest possible variations for both inflation and output. As for the new contribution to this study, it is to calculate the optimal inflation rate and the optimal output level in the Egyptian economy through a model that combines the higher predictive power of feed forward neural network models, and the high explanatory power of a stationary or random walk stochastic models, in order to obtain the fitted values of the optimal output level, and the optimal inflation rate. It is clear from the results of the study, the extent of the essential congruence between the actual Egyptian economic performance during the study period and the economic performance index that was built through the new contribution of this study.
本文通过提出的增强前馈-反向传播神经网络模型算法,讨论了效率前沿法的一种新的表示形式,并使用1990年第一季度至2019年第二季度的季度时间序列数据来估计埃及经济的经济绩效和宏观经济政策的有效性。在这项研究中,我根据埃及的经济状况开发了人工神经网络模型——ANN,通过建立一个最优效率边界,然后将埃及经济的实际表现与该极限进行比较,其中包括通货膨胀和产出的最低可能变化。本研究的新贡献在于,通过结合前馈神经网络模型较高的预测能力和平稳或随机游走随机模型较高的解释能力的模型,计算埃及经济的最优通货膨胀率和最优产出水平,从而得到最优产出水平和最优通货膨胀率的拟合值。从研究结果中可以清楚地看出,研究期间埃及实际经济表现与通过本研究的新贡献构建的经济绩效指标之间的本质一致性程度。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the Efficiency of Hospital’s Cardiology Wards Using the Free Disposal Hull Approach 用自由处置船体法衡量医院心脏病病房效率
Pub Date : 2020-04-09 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-2-1
C. Arfa, Hervé Leleu, H. Romdhane, C. V. Mosseveld, Tarek Sadraoui
The assessment of efficiency of public hospitals in Tunisia is almost missing. Actually, the efficient utilization of existing resources becomes crucial for strengthening the healthcare delivery. The objective of this study was to measure technical efficiency of five cardiology wards, using an innovative nonparametric approach through an aggregated efficiency at patient level. It can assist practitioners to understand the underlying causes of clinical practice inefficiency. Linearized Free Disposal Hull using the non-radial input directional distance function provide a efficiency scores at the patient level and aggregate scores at ward’s level. The cardiology wards operate at high inefficiency. Through the 217-treated diagnosis' disease, 50 are the greatest sources of inefficiency. Each ward could save more than 50% of inputs used. The decision makers can ensure the optimum utilization of the available resources through a new design of the management and clinical practices of these wards. High inefficiency is due to the lack evaluation, accountability and effective management of public hospitals.
对突尼斯公立医院效率的评估几乎缺失。实际上,有效利用现有资源对于加强医疗保健服务至关重要。本研究的目的是测量五个心脏病病房的技术效率,采用创新的非参数方法,通过患者水平的综合效率。它可以帮助从业者了解临床实践效率低下的根本原因。使用非径向输入定向距离函数的线性化自由处置船体提供了患者水平的效率得分和病房水平的总得分。心脏病病房的运作效率很低。在217种被治疗的诊断疾病中,有50种是效率低下的最大根源。每个病房可以节省50%以上的投入物。决策者可以通过对这些病房的管理和临床实践的新设计来确保现有资源的最佳利用。低效率是由于公立医院缺乏评价、问责和有效管理。
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引用次数: 2
World Oil Fluctuation and Vietnamese Stock Market Index 世界石油波动与越南股市指数
Pub Date : 2020-03-09 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-1-5
Khanh Nguyen Thi Van
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of world oil price on Vietnamese stock market index. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL model) on the monthly data during the period over Jul 2000- Jun 2019, collected from Stock markets and Finance News and Vndirect joint stock company news. Evidence from the study shows that world oil price does not only impact on Vietnamese stock market index in short run but world oil price on Vietnamese stock market index also have a long-run equilibrium relationship. In short run, world oil price shows sometimes a negative, sometimes a positive influence on Vietnamese stock market index. While in long run, the nexus of world oil price on Vietnamese stock market index is steadily positive.
本文的目的是研究世界石油价格对越南股市指数的影响。使用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL模型)对2000年7月至2019年6月期间的月度数据进行分析,这些数据收集自股票市场和金融新闻以及Vndirect股份公司新闻。研究结果表明,世界石油价格不仅在短期内对越南股市指数产生影响,而且世界石油价格对越南股市指数也存在长期均衡关系。从短期来看,世界油价对越南股市指数的影响有时是负面的,有时是正面的。而从长期来看,世界石油价格对越南股市指数的影响是稳定的。
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引用次数: 0
Political Risk Factors on Perfomance of Public Private Partnership Renewable Energy Projects: The Case of Geothermal Renewable Enrgy Projects in Kenya 公私合作可再生能源项目绩效的政治风险因素:以肯尼亚地热可再生能源项目为例
Pub Date : 2020-03-09 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-1-4
K. Odhiambo, C. Rambo, Stephen Lucas Okello
To solve the problem of limited fiscal funds and demand for energy, PPP has been touted as an effective approach. However political risks have been blamed for failure to attract private investments in equally measure as their developed partners. This article looked at political risks influencing the performance of PPP renewable energy projects in Kenya. The study adopted a pragmatic paradigm and employed a mixed methods approach, correlational and descriptive survey design. Quantitative data was collected by use of a self-administered questionnaire and an interview guide was used to collect qualitative data. A sample size of 263 respondents was drawn from a target population of 769 using the Yamane formula. For descriptive statistics the study used the mean and standard deviation. For inferential statistics the study used Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation (r) and Multiple Regression while the F-tests were used in hypothesis testing. The study established a significant influence of political risks r = 0.572, F (1,205) = 99.771, R2 = 0.327 at p<.05 H0 was rejected. The study concluded that there was a significant influence of political risks on the performance of PPP renewable energy projects in Kenya. Based on this finding the study recommends sustainable political stability.
为了解决财政资金有限和能源需求不足的问题,PPP被认为是一种有效的方式。然而,政治风险一直被指责为未能像发达国家那样吸引私人投资的原因。本文着眼于影响肯尼亚PPP可再生能源项目绩效的政治风险。本研究采用了语用研究范式,采用了相关调查和描述性调查相结合的方法。定量数据采用自填问卷收集,定性数据采用访谈指南收集。使用Yamane公式从769名目标人群中抽取了263名受访者。对于描述性统计,研究使用均值和标准差。对于推理统计,研究使用Pearson积差相关(r)和多元回归,而f检验用于假设检验。研究建立了政治风险的显著影响r = 0.572, F (1,205) = 99.771, R2 = 0.327, p< 0.05H0被拒绝。研究得出结论,政治风险对肯尼亚PPP可再生能源项目的绩效有显著影响。基于这一发现,该研究建议维持政治稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Relationship between Capital Structure and Banks’ Performance; an Evidence of Banks Listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange 资本结构与银行绩效的关系研究在加纳证券交易所上市的银行证明
Pub Date : 2020-01-20 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-1-3
Bright Obuobi, Xiaoqing Li, Emmanuel Nketiah, Faustina Awuah, E. Boateng, A. Sampene, J. Wiredu, J. Ashun, Gibbson Adu-Gyamfi, M. Adjei
The capital structure of an organization is potentially one of its most important choices. The success of every organization depends on its capital mix or structure. This places a greater responsibility on financial managers to decide the best capital combination that will maximize shareholders’ wealth. Due to the abstract nature of capital structure in an organization, this paper attempts to examine the influence of capital structure on the financial performance of banks in Ghana. The study uses debt ratio (DR) as proxy for banks capital structure and uses return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and earning per share (EPS) as proxies for banks performance measurement in the country understudy. The study sampled 7 banks out of the 11 banks listed on the Ghana stock exchange (as at 2017) over a seven-year period from 2008 to 2014 and data from their respective annual financial statements were extracted. It was concluded that capital structure has a negative effect on banks performance as the results confirms various studies reviewed.
一个组织的资本结构可能是其最重要的选择之一。每个组织的成功都取决于它的资本组合或结构。这使得财务经理有更大的责任来决定最佳的资本组合,从而使股东的财富最大化。由于组织中资本结构的抽象性,本文试图考察资本结构对加纳银行财务绩效的影响。该研究使用负债率(DR)作为银行资本结构的代表,并使用资产回报率(ROA)、股本回报率(ROE)和每股收益(EPS)作为银行在该国绩效衡量的代表。该研究从2008年至2014年的7年期间,从加纳证券交易所上市的11家银行(截至2017年)中抽样了7家银行,并从各自的年度财务报表中提取了数据。得出的结论是,资本结构对银行业绩有负面影响,结果证实了各种研究综述。
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引用次数: 3
A Behavioral Portfolio Decision Model with Triangular Fuzzy Number Return and Investor’s Sentiment 具有三角模糊数收益和投资者情绪的行为投资组合决策模型
Pub Date : 2020-01-10 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-1-2
Qiansheng Zhang
This paper deals with a behavioral portfolio decision problem with triangular fuzzy number return. A fuzzy sentimental mean model for behavioral portfolio decision is proposed by taking into account investor’s sentiment and multiple mental accounts. The presented behavioral portfolio decision model maximizes the fuzzy sentimental mean value of portfolio return and ensures the portfolio return of each mental account exceeding the given minimum triangular fuzzy number level with a given possibility degree. Then, multiple programming models are designed to solve the optimal behavioral portfolio strategy. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed approach.
研究了一类具有三角模糊数回报的行为投资组合决策问题。提出了一种考虑投资者情绪和多重心理账户的模糊情感均值模型。所提出的行为投资组合决策模型使投资组合收益的模糊情感均值最大化,保证每个心理账户的投资组合收益在给定的可能性程度下超过给定的最小三角模糊数层次。然后,设计多个规划模型求解最优行为投资组合策略。最后,通过一个算例说明了所提方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
The Determinants of the Credit Risk in Developing Countries: An Empirical Study on Vietnamese Listed Banking Sector 发展中国家信用风险的决定因素:越南上市银行部门的实证研究
Pub Date : 2019-11-21 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-8-1-1
P. Ha
The research study is focusing on the determinants of credit risk in developing countries, Vietnam is one the most fastest growing economies in the world with the rate of roughtly 7 percent during the period of1986 – 2018. The bank system in the country has widely been expanded both quantity and quality. Using the secondary data in the period of 2009 – 2018 retrieving from Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), and General Statistics Office with the theoretical framework of bank’s non-performance loans (so-called credit risk), the results demonstrate that that real GDP growth rate is significantly and negatively correlated with the credit risk in the bank system. Loan growth in the current year and a previous year can negatively generate non-performing loans in this year. In addition, a larger bank can perfectly have a lower level of bankruptcy cost and a higher level of growth rate related to a lower level of credit risk. Further, the bad debt, inflation, and net interest margin can positively generate credit risk.
该研究的重点是发展中国家信贷风险的决定因素,越南是世界上增长最快的经济体之一,在1986年至2018年期间的增长率约为7%。我国的银行体系在数量和质量上都得到了广泛的扩展。利用2009 - 2018年从胡志明市证券交易所(HOSE)、河内证券交易所(HNX)和总统计局获取的二次数据,结合银行不良贷款(所谓的信用风险)的理论框架,结果表明,实际GDP增长率与银行系统的信用风险呈显著负相关。今年和前一年的贷款增长会对今年的不良贷款产生负面影响。此外,规模较大的银行完全可以拥有较低的破产成本水平和较高的增长率,这与较低的信用风险水平有关。此外,坏账、通货膨胀和净息差会产生正面的信用风险。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Health Production Function for the South Asian Countries 南亚国家卫生生产函数的估算
Pub Date : 2019-04-22 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-7-1-2
Istihak Rayhan, R. Hasan, M. Akter
The aim of this study is to estimate the health production function for the south Asian countries. The health production function expresses the functional relationship between health status and health care inputs, while life expectancy at birth has been widely used as an indicator of population health status of a country and health care inputs can be categorized into three broader categories named economic factors, social factors and environmental factors. It is a prior work to estimate health production function for the south Asian countries. A balanced panel data of seven South Asian countries are taken for the period of 1995-2015 from World Development Indicator 2017. Breusch-Pagan, Honda, King-Wu, Standardized Honda and Standardized King-Wu Lagrange Multiplier test are used to test the random effects on pooled OLS model. Hausman test is used to select the appropriate model between fixed effect and random effect model. Breusch-Pagan LM, Pesaran LM and Baltagi, Kao and Feng bias corrected scaled test are performed to check the cross-sectional dependence of the residuals. Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) model has been used to deal with contemporaneous correlation in residuals. In this study health expenditure per capita and food production index are used as economic factors, education and access to improved water facilities are used as social factors and urbanization is used environmental factors. Empirical results reveal that health expenditure per capita, education, access to improved water sources and urbanization have statistical significant positive impact on life expectancy, but the impact of food production index is found statistically significantly negative in the south Asian countries. The findings of this study help the policy makers to take a suitable policy for extending life expectancy in the South Asian countries.
本研究的目的是估计南亚国家的卫生生产函数。健康生产函数表达了健康状况与卫生保健投入之间的函数关系,而出生时预期寿命已被广泛用作一个国家人口健康状况的指标,卫生保健投入可分为三大类:经济因素、社会因素和环境因素。估计南亚国家的卫生生产函数是一项前期工作。7个南亚国家1995-2015年的平衡面板数据取自《2017年世界发展指标》。采用Breusch-Pagan、Honda、King-Wu、标准化Honda和标准化King-Wu拉格朗日乘数检验对集合OLS模型的随机效应进行检验。采用Hausman检验在固定效应和随机效应模型之间选择合适的模型。采用bruch - pagan LM、Pesaran LM和Baltagi、Kao和Feng校正偏差的尺度检验检验残差的横截面相关性。面板校正标准误差(PCSE)模型用于处理残差的同期相关性。在本研究中,人均卫生支出和粮食生产指数被用作经济因素,教育和获得改善的水设施被用作社会因素,城市化被用作环境因素。实证结果表明,人均卫生支出、教育、获得改良水源和城市化对预期寿命有统计学显著的正影响,而粮食生产指数对南亚国家的影响在统计学上显著为负。本研究的结果有助于决策者采取适当的政策来延长南亚国家的预期寿命。
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引用次数: 3
Impact of Financial Liberalization on Income Inequality: A PVAR Approach 金融自由化对收入不平等的影响:一个PVAR方法
Pub Date : 2019-03-06 DOI: 10.12691/IJEFM-7-1-1
Chokri Zehri, H. Abid
We estimate a panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) to study the impact of financial liberalization on income inequality. The analysis is carried out for 162 countries over the period 1980-2015. The results show that capital account liberalization and financial development increase inequality. However, it change according to the category of income countries (low, middle and high-income) and according to the period of study used (before and after 1990). The shocks caused by the indicators of financial liberalization on income inequality are very low but persistent in time.
我们估计了一个面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)来研究金融自由化对收入不平等的影响。该分析是在1980年至2015年期间对162个国家进行的。结果表明,资本账户自由化和金融发展加剧了不平等。然而,它根据收入国家的类别(低收入、中等收入和高收入)和所使用的研究期间(1990年前后)而变化。金融自由化指标对收入不平等造成的冲击很低,但在时间上持续存在。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
international journal of research in computer application & management
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