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A model of integration among prediction tools: applied study to road freight transportation 预测工具集成模型:在公路货物运输中的应用研究
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.09.005
Henrique Dias Blois , Ricardo Silveira Martins

This study has developed a scenery analysis model which has integrated decision-making tools on investments: prospective scenarios (Grumbach Method) and systems dynamics (hard modeling), with the innovated multivariate analysis of experts. It was designed through analysis and simulation scenarios and showed which are the most striking events in the study object as well as highlighted the actions could redirect the future of the analyzed system. Moreover, predictions are likely to be developed through the generated scenarios. The model has been validated empirically with road freight transport data from state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The results showed that the model contributes to the analysis of investment because it identifies probabilities of events that impact on decision making, and identifies priorities for action, reducing uncertainties in the future. Moreover, it allows an interdisciplinary discussion that correlates different areas of knowledge, fundamental when you wish more consistency in creating scenarios.

本研究建立了一个景观分析模型,该模型结合了投资决策工具:前瞻性情景(Grumbach法)和系统动力学(硬模型),并采用了创新的专家多变量分析方法。它是通过分析和模拟场景来设计的,显示了研究对象中最引人注目的事件,并突出了可以改变被分析系统未来的动作。此外,预测很可能是通过生成的情景来发展的。用巴西南里奥格兰德州的公路货运数据对模型进行了实证验证。结果表明,该模型有助于投资分析,因为它确定了影响决策的事件的概率,并确定了行动的优先级,减少了未来的不确定性。此外,它允许将不同领域的知识联系起来进行跨学科的讨论,当您希望在创建场景时更加一致时,这是非常重要的。
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引用次数: 1
Ticket consumption forecast for Brazilian championship games 巴西锦标赛门票消费预测
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.09.007
Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo , Mauricio Mesquita Bortoluzzo , Sérgio Jurandyr Machado , Tatiana Terabayashi Melhado , Pedro Iaropoli Trindade , Bruno Santos Pereira

For the efficiency of sales and marketing management of athletic clubs, it is crucial to find a way to appropriately estimate the level of demand for sporting events. More precise estimates allow for an appropriate financial and operational plan and a higher quality of service delivered to the fans. The focus of this study is to analyze and forecast the ticket consumption for soccer games in Brazilian stadiums. We compare the results of the regression model with normally distributed errors (benchmark), the TOBIT model and the Gamma generalized linear model. The models include explanatory variables related to the economic environment, product quality, as well as monetary and non-monetary incentives that people are given to attend sporting events at stadiums. We show that most of these variables are statistically significant to explain the amount of fans that go to stadiums. We used different measures of accuracy to evaluate the performance of demand forecasts and concluded that Gamma generalized linear model presented better results to forecast the ticket consumption for Brazilian championship games, when compared to a benchmark.

为了提高体育俱乐部营销管理的效率,如何正确估计体育赛事的需求水平是至关重要的。更精确的估算有助于制定适当的财务和运营计划,并为球迷提供更高质量的服务。本研究的重点是分析和预测巴西体育场馆的足球比赛门票消费。我们将回归模型与正态分布误差(基准)、TOBIT模型和Gamma广义线性模型的结果进行了比较。这些模型包括与经济环境、产品质量以及人们在体育场馆参加体育赛事的货币和非货币激励有关的解释变量。我们表明,这些变量中的大多数在统计上都是显著的,可以解释去体育场的球迷数量。我们使用不同的准确度来评估需求预测的表现,并得出结论,与基准相比,Gamma广义线性模型在预测巴西锦标赛门票消费方面表现更好。
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引用次数: 4
The influence of innovation environments in R&D results 创新环境对研发成果的影响
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.07.004
Serje Schmidt , Alsones Balestrin , Raquel Engelman , Maria Cristina Bohnenberger

In Brazil, as well as worldwide, incubators and science and technology parks (ISTPs) are continually used to foster regional development. However, the incongruence between the growing number of ISTPs and the inconclusiveness of their results raised preoccupations regarding their effectiveness and doubts on how they promote innovation. In spite of the growing possibility and need for quantitative research, few studies have adopted this methodological perspective. The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of resources promoted by ISTPs on the results of their tenant's R&D projects. A quantitative cross-sectional design was used in this study. A higher specificity in the observation and analysis of ISTPs contributed to the advance of literature, so that a taxonomy of resources promoted by ISTPs was proposed and the key resources associated to R&D results could be identified.

在巴西以及世界各地,孵化器和科技园区(ISTPs)不断被用来促进区域发展。然而,越来越多的istp和他们不确定的结果之间的不一致引起了人们对其有效性的关注和对他们如何促进创新的怀疑。尽管定量研究的可能性和必要性越来越大,但很少有研究采用这种方法视角。本研究的目的是分析istp所促进的资源对其租户研发项目结果的影响。本研究采用定量横断面设计。对ISTPs的观察和分析具有更高的特异性,这促进了文献的进步,从而提出了ISTPs促进的资源分类,并确定了与研发结果相关的关键资源。
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引用次数: 11
An analysis of the relationship between embedded ties and supplier innovation in the cooperative sector 合作部门内嵌关系与供应商创新关系分析
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.07.003
Valter Afonso Vieira, Winsley Bonifácio-da-Silva

What are the main predictors of the development of embedded ties? What are the impacts of supplier-knowledge, client-knowledge, and embedded-tie variables on the development of supplier innovation in the cooperative sector? What is the moderating role of embedded ties in the development of supplier innovation? This study brings together 126 responses from suppliers of a large agro-industrial cooperative. The results show that embedded ties have a positive impact on the development of innovation and knowledge for innovation. Furthermore, a significant association between supplier knowledge and innovation was found, which is moderated by embedded ties. Data show that embedded ties amplify the ability to develop innovation in industrial relationships.

嵌入式关系发展的主要预测因素是什么?供应商知识、客户知识和嵌入式联系变量对合作部门供应商创新发展的影响是什么?嵌入式关系在供应商创新发展中的调节作用是什么?本研究汇集了一家大型农工合作社供应商的126份答复。研究结果表明,嵌入式联系对创新和创新知识的发展具有正向影响。此外,我们还发现供应商知识与创新之间存在显著的关联,这种关联受嵌入关系的调节。数据显示,嵌入式联系增强了产业关系中发展创新的能力。
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引用次数: 1
The influence of civic mindedness, trustworthiness, usefulness, and ease of use on the use of government websites 公民意识、可信度、实用性和易用性对政府网站使用的影响
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.07.002
Flávio Perazzo Barbosa Mota, Carlo Gabriel Porto Bellini, Juliana Morais da Silva Souza, Terezinha de Jesus Nogueira Oliveira

Civic mindedness and the perceptions of trustworthiness, usefulness, and ease of use seem to explain much of the effective use of websites. This article discusses the extent to which such factors influence the use of government websites based on a study with 210 citizens who were doing their biometric electoral registration in João Pessoa – a major city in Brazil. With the help of ordinary least squares and quantile regression models, we found that there is mixed influence of those factors on the use of government websites. On average, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use had a significant influence; but for low levels of use, only perceived usefulness had an influence, whereas perceived ease of use had an influence for moderate and high levels of use. In terms of trustworthiness, only the dimension about trust in government had an influence for all levels of use. In terms of civic mindedness, only the dimension about civic engagement had an influence, except for moderate levels of use. Our results reinforce that the development of government websites should focus on the citizens’ individual profiles and levels of use, that is, focus should be directed to the demand side (users) besides merely addressing the legal requirements and the provision of services by the supplier (government).

公民意识和对可信性、实用性和易用性的认知似乎可以解释网站的有效使用。本文以巴西大城市jo o Pessoa的210名公民为研究对象,讨论这些因素对政府网站使用的影响程度。利用普通最小二乘法和分位数回归模型,我们发现这些因素对政府网站使用的影响是混合的。平均而言,感知有用性和感知易用性具有显著影响;但对于低水平的使用,只有感知有用性有影响,而感知易用性对中等和高水平的使用有影响。在可信度方面,只有对政府的信任维度对所有层次的使用都有影响。在公民意识方面,除了适度使用外,只有公民参与的维度有影响。我们的研究结果进一步表明,政府网站的开发应该关注公民的个人资料和使用水平,即除了仅仅解决法律要求和供应商(政府)提供的服务外,还应该关注需求方(用户)。
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引用次数: 1
The relationship between equity ownership concentration and earnings quality: evidence from Brazil 股权集中度与盈余质量的关系:来自巴西的证据
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.07.006
Erivelto Fioresi de Sousa , Fernando Caio Galdi

This study investigates the influence of ownership concentration on earnings quality of Brazilian firms. This topic is relevant considering the substantially low number of companies with diffuse ownership structure in Brazil in comparison to US, where most studies about earnings quality have been performed. The Brazilian setting permits us to complement Givoly, Hayn, and Katz (2010) analysis between the potential explanations for the relation between ownership structure and earnings quality based on both the “demand” and “opportunistic behavior” hypothesis. To examine this relationship, we employ two measures as proxies of earnings quality: earnings persistence and asymmetric timeliness (conservatism). Our results are consistent with the “demand” hypothesis and indicate that earnings represent a more consistent indicator of future performance when ownership structure becomes more dispersed. Our results contribute to the literature because it suggests that the quality of accounting numbers have to be assessed considering aspects related to ownership concentration (even when analyzing earnings from public firms). It also contributes to the investment community because it shows that earnings forecast accuracy may be influenced by ownership structure.

本研究探讨股权集中度对巴西公司盈余质量的影响。考虑到与美国相比,巴西分散所有权结构的公司数量非常少,这个主题是相关的,大多数关于盈余质量的研究都是在美国进行的。巴西的背景允许我们补充Givoly, Hayn和Katz(2010)基于“需求”和“机会主义行为”假设对所有权结构和盈余质量之间关系的潜在解释之间的分析。为了检验这种关系,我们采用两种衡量盈余质量的指标:盈余持续性和不对称时效性(稳健性)。我们的结果与“需求”假设一致,并表明当股权结构变得更加分散时,收益代表了未来业绩的更一致的指标。我们的结果有助于文献,因为它表明会计数字的质量必须考虑到与所有权集中度相关的方面进行评估(即使在分析上市公司的收益时)。这对投资界也有帮助,因为它表明盈利预测的准确性可能受到股权结构的影响。
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引用次数: 3
Evidence of co-production in public service provision: the case of the administrative arbitration centre in Portugal 公共服务提供中合作生产的证据:葡萄牙行政仲裁中心的案例
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.07.007
Hugo Consciência Silvestre , João Ricardo Catarino , Joaquim Filipe Ferraz Esteves de Araújo

Co-production includes all actions where citizens assist, as volunteers, in the provision of services by public agencies in order to increase the efficiency and efficacy of the public services provided. This practice, known as co-production, is being adopted by governments in the resolution of conflicts, particularly those regarding administrative and fiscal matters. However, is co-production a more efficient and effective way of settling disputes in administrative and tax areas than the traditional administrative model? And why? In Portugal, the Administrative Arbitration Centre was created in 2009 with the aim of resolving disputes between public administration and taxpayers/service users by means of co-production. The available data support the thesis that efficiency and efficacy are higher under the co-production model. Nevertheless, users are not totally satisfied since the costs associated with the use of this service provision model are also higher.

合作生产包括公民作为志愿者协助公共机构提供服务的所有行动,以提高所提供公共服务的效率和效力。各国政府在解决冲突,特别是有关行政和财政事项的冲突时,正在采用这种称为合作制作的做法。然而,联产是否比传统的行政模式更有效地解决行政和税收领域的纠纷?,为什么?在葡萄牙,行政仲裁中心于2009年成立,目的是通过联合生产的方式解决公共行政部门与纳税人/服务使用者之间的纠纷。现有数据支持合产模式下的效率和功效更高的理论。然而,用户并不完全满意,因为与使用此服务提供模型相关的成本也较高。
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引用次数: 11
Socioemotional wealth preservation in family firms 家族企业的社会情感财富保值
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.08.002
Matias Kalm, Luis R. Gomez-Mejia

In this article, we review literature on socioemotional wealth. We explain how the concept of socioemotional wealth builds on previous family firm research showing that family-owners derive utility from the nonfinancial aspects of their firm. We also discuss how family firms’ need for socioemotional wealth preservation explains behavioral differences between family and nonfamily firms in managerial decision making. Finally, we discuss the current state of socioemotional wealth research and propose potential directions for future research.

在本文中,我们回顾了有关社会情感财富的文献。我们解释了社会情感财富的概念是如何建立在先前的家族企业研究的基础上的,这些研究表明,家族所有者从其企业的非财务方面获得效用。我们还讨论了家族企业对社会情感财富保值的需求如何解释家族企业和非家族企业在管理决策中的行为差异。最后,讨论了社会情感财富的研究现状,并提出了未来研究的可能方向。
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引用次数: 71
Alienation, segregation and resocialization: meanings of prison labor 异化、隔离与再社会化:监狱劳动的意义
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.07.001
Clara Luísa Oliveira Silva , Luiz Alex Silva Saraiva

In this paper we deal with senses which subjects in prison attribute to work realized in prison, trying to identify relations between these senses and the principles which try to legitimate work activities that reintegrate subject to society. To reach this objective, we’ve made case study based on semi structured interviews in a female unity of a center of social reintegration. Collected data was threaten through discourse analysis. Main conclusions are related to reinforce of problematizations about role of work in prison: if it is productor of accepted sociabilities, or if it is reproductor of social inequalities, as, in last level, criminality itself.

在本文中,我们探讨了监狱主体赋予在监狱中实现的劳动的感觉,试图确定这些感觉与试图使劳动活动合法化并使主体重新融入社会的原则之间的关系。为了达到这一目标,我们在社会融合中心的女性统一中进行了基于半结构化访谈的案例研究。通过语篇分析对收集到的数据进行威胁。主要结论与加强监狱工作作用的问题化有关:如果它是可接受的社会能力的生产者,或者如果它是社会不平等的再现者,在最后一级,犯罪本身。
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引用次数: 9
Social connection in organizations: the effects of local ties on job engagement and performance 组织中的社会联系:地方关系对工作投入和绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.rausp.2016.07.005
Cristiano de Oliveira Maciel , Camila Camargo

This study examines the effect of local ties of organizational actors on their degree of job engagement and performance. The study carried out a survey with 249 respondents and analyzed the effect of local ties (i.e., ties of the ego) through degrees of intra-organizational social connections. Engagement was measured in physical, cognitive, and emotional dimensions. Performance was represented by the degree of achievement in tasks. The results show that only cognitive engagement and performance are influenced by degrees of intra-organizational social connection. These results are explored in the conclusions of the article.

本研究探讨组织行动者的地方关系对其工作投入程度和绩效的影响。该研究对249名受访者进行了调查,并通过组织内社会联系的程度分析了地方关系(即自我关系)的影响。参与度从身体、认知和情感三个维度来衡量。表现由完成任务的程度来表示。结果表明,组织内社会联系程度只对认知投入和绩效有影响。这些结果在文章的结论中进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
RAUSP Revista de Administracao da Universidade de Sao Paulo
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