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Forecasting CO2 Emissions in China’s Construction Industry Based on the Weighted Adaboost-ENN Model and Scenario Analysis 基于加权Adaboost-ENN模型和情景分析的中国建筑业CO2排放预测
Pub Date : 2019-03-03 DOI: 10.1155/2019/8275491
Jianguo Zhou, Xiaolei Xu, Wei Li, Fengtao Guang, Xuechao Yu, Baoling Jin
As a pillar industry of national economy, China’s construction industry is still facing the status of substantial energy consumption and high CO2 emissions, which is a key field of energy conservation and emission reduction. In CO2 emissions research, it is essential to focus on analyzing the present and future trends of CO2 emissions in China’s construction industry. This article introduces a novel prediction model, in which the weighted algorithm is combined with Elman neural network (ENN) optimized by Adaptive Boosting algorithm (Adaboost) for evaluating future CO2 emissions in China’s construction industry. Firstly, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) is used to decompose CO2 emissions into economy, structural, intensity, and population indicators, posing as inputs to the weighted Adaboost-ENN model. Then, through comparison with other three models based on the data of total CO2 emissions in China’s construction industry during 2004-2016, there is evidence that the proposed model makes a favorable prediction performance. On this basis, we employ scenario analysis to predict future trend of CO2 emissions in China’s construction industry. It can be found that the peak of CO2 emissions in China’s construction industry will be achieved before 2030 in high carbon scenario (HS) and baseline carbon scenario (BS), whereas it will not be realized in low carbon scenario (LS). Finally, the specific policy recommendations related to energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s construction industry are proposed.
中国建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业,目前仍面临着能耗大、CO2排放高的现状,是节能减排的重点领域。在二氧化碳排放研究中,重点是分析中国建筑业二氧化碳排放的现状和未来趋势。本文提出了一种新的预测模型,将加权算法与Adaboost自适应提升算法优化的Elman神经网络(ENN)相结合,对中国建筑行业未来的二氧化碳排放量进行预测。首先,利用对数平均分度指数(LMDI)将二氧化碳排放分解为经济、结构、强度和人口指标,作为Adaboost-ENN加权模型的输入。然后,通过与其他三种基于2004-2016年中国建筑业二氧化碳排放总量数据的模型进行比较,证明本文提出的模型具有较好的预测性能。在此基础上,运用情景分析法对未来中国建筑业二氧化碳排放趋势进行了预测。研究发现,在高碳情景(HS)和基线碳情景(BS)下,中国建筑业的CO2排放量将在2030年前达到峰值,而在低碳情景(LS)下则不会达到峰值。最后,提出了中国建筑业节能减排的具体政策建议。
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引用次数: 4
China’s Contribution to the African Power Sector: Policy Implications for African Countries 中国对非洲电力行业的贡献:对非洲国家的政策启示
Pub Date : 2019-02-14 DOI: 10.1155/2019/7013594
Luka Powanga, Irene Giner-Reichl
China has over the past thirty years experienced unprecedented economic growth averaging over 10% per year (“China GDP Annual Growth Rate ∣ 1989-2018 ∣ Data ∣ Chart ∣ Calendar” n.d.). For this reason, the relationship between China and Africa is often characterized as a case of China colonizing Africa to own natural resources and their associated infrastructure to feed its industrialization. Despite this postulation, Africa sees the cooperation as based on mutual interests in areas such as energy. The two regions could leverage their cooperation with the help of the international community to significantly advance access to electricity in Africa by improving energy efficiency, deploying cookstove programs to reduce health hazards and deaths from smoke inhalation, diversifying energy portfolio, and creating power pools that countries experiencing hiccups in their systems could tap into to meet their electricity needs. The two regions could also formulate energy policies to support these programs. Additionally, the energy infrastructure in Africa is still in infancy presenting an excellent opportunity to utilize emerging technologies and new power systems that are more efficient, resilient, and clean.
在过去的30年里,中国经历了前所未有的经济增长,平均每年超过10%(“中国GDP年增长率∣1989-2018年∣数据∣图表∣日历”n.d)。出于这个原因,中国和非洲的关系经常被描述为中国殖民非洲,以拥有自然资源和相关的基础设施,以满足其工业化。尽管有这种假设,非洲认为这种合作是基于能源等领域的共同利益。这两个地区可以在国际社会的帮助下,利用他们的合作,通过提高能源效率,部署炉灶项目,减少因吸入烟雾造成的健康危害和死亡,使能源组合多样化,以及建立电力池,使系统出现问题的国家可以利用这些资源来满足其电力需求,从而大大促进非洲的电力供应。这两个地区还可以制定能源政策来支持这些项目。此外,非洲的能源基础设施仍处于起步阶段,这为利用更高效、更有弹性和更清洁的新兴技术和新电力系统提供了绝佳的机会。
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引用次数: 12
Waste to Energy: Response Surface Methodology for Optimization of Biodiesel Production from Leather Fleshing Waste 废物转化为能源:从皮革肉废料中优化生产生物柴油的响应面方法
Pub Date : 2019-02-03 DOI: 10.1155/2019/7329269
H. Dagne, R. Karthikeyan, S. Feleke
Background. The demand for diesel fuel is constantly increasing, requiring its alternate that could be sustainable, technically feasible, price competitive, and ecologically acceptable. Biodiesel is one of ecologically acceptable substitute for the conventional fuels. Methods. Sufficient lime fleshing waste was collected from Addis Ababa tannery share company. The limed fleshing waste in the wet condition was delimed using boric acid, dried, chopped, and subjected to Soxhlet extraction using petroleum ether solvent. The oil was treated by orthophosphoric acid and distilled water to remove gums. The pretreated oil was subjected to homogeneous base catalyzed transesterification. Response surface was used to optimize the process variables. GC-MS was used to see composition of the biodiesel produced. Result. The oil yield of the goat, hide, and sheep delimed fleshing wastes were 23.08%, 12.05%, and 26.7%, respectively. The conversion to biodiesel by KOH-catalyzed transesterification was achieved above 96% under optimum conditions: a methanol-to-oil molar ratio of 6:1, catalyst amount of 1 % w/w, and reaction temperature of 60°C for an hour reaction time. Conclusion. It was proven that fleshing wastes from tanneries whose storage and disposal are both troublesome and costly could be transformed to a fuel with low emission values and a performance close to diesel fuel.
背景。对柴油燃料的需求不断增加,要求其替代品能够可持续,技术上可行,价格上有竞争力,生态上可接受。生物柴油是一种生态可接受的传统燃料替代品。方法。从亚的斯亚贝巴制革厂股份公司收集了足够的石灰肉质废物。将湿法条件下的石灰化肉质废弃物用硼酸划界、干燥、切碎,用石油醚溶剂进行索氏萃取。用正磷酸和蒸馏水处理油,去除树胶。对预处理后的油进行均相碱催化酯交换反应。采用响应面法对工艺变量进行优化。采用气相色谱-质谱法测定所得生物柴油的组成。结果。山羊、兽皮和绵羊定界肉渣的出油率分别为23.08%、12.05%和26.7%。在醇油摩尔比为6:1、催化剂用量为1% w/w、反应温度为60℃、反应时间为1 h的条件下,koh催化酯交换制生物柴油的转化率达到96%以上。结论。事实证明,制革厂生产的肉质废料储存和处理既麻烦又昂贵,可转化为排放值低、性能接近柴油的燃料。
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引用次数: 19
Study of PEM Fuel Cell End Plate Design by Structural Analysis Based on Contact Pressure 基于接触压力结构分析的PEM燃料电池端板设计研究
Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1155/2019/3821082
Tapobrata Dey, Jaydeep Deshpande, D. Singdeo, P. Ghosh
A fuel cell stack is configured to power any load ranging from watts to megawatt by varying cells connected in series. During stack assembly, major emphasis must be placed on application of adequate external pressure for reducing the ohmic losses, the purpose of which is to achieve proper contact between the cell components and minimize the contact resistance. Present work aims to study the influence of geometry of the cell, bolt configuration, gasket thickness mismatch, and material properties of different components of average and distribution contact pressure. The geometries are evaluated for end plate designs with a view to understand the pressure distribution and contact resistance in each case. Among different designs, extruded hexagon is found to perform well with an average contact pressure of 0.13 MPa and contact resistance of 28 Ω-cm2. Greater gasket thickness requires higher forces to be applied before the GDL makes contact with BPP. The effect of gasket thickness mismatch is evaluated for different values to identify its appropriate value. The pressure is applied using bolts and position and number of bolts is determined for homogeneous contact pressure on the active area. This study provides a framework for future end plate design of fuel cells.
一个燃料电池堆被配置为任何负载供电从瓦特到兆瓦通过不同的电池串联连接。在堆叠组装过程中,主要的重点必须放在施加足够的外部压力,以减少欧姆损耗,其目的是实现单元组件之间的适当接触,并尽量减少接触电阻。本工作旨在研究电池几何形状、螺栓配置、衬垫厚度不匹配以及材料性能对平均和分布接触压力不同组成部分的影响。为了了解每种情况下的压力分布和接触阻力,对端板设计的几何形状进行了评估。在不同的设计中,挤压六边形的平均接触压力为0.13 MPa,接触电阻为28 Ω-cm2。更大的垫片厚度要求在GDL与BPP接触之前施加更高的力。对不同的衬垫厚度失配值进行了评价,以确定其合适的值。使用螺栓施加压力,螺栓的位置和数量取决于活动区域上的均匀接触压力。该研究为未来燃料电池端板的设计提供了一个框架。
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引用次数: 12
Wavelet Analysis of Daily Energy Demand and Weather Variables 日能源需求和天气变量的小波分析
Pub Date : 2019-01-02 DOI: 10.1155/2019/4974107
A. Bonkaney, I. Seidou Sanda, A. Balogun
In this paper, we applied the Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC) and phase analysis to analyze the relationship between the daily electricity demand (DED) and weather variables such as temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and radiation. The DED data presents both seasonal fluctuations and increasing trend while the weather variables depict only seasonal variation. The results obtained from the WTC and phase analysis permit us to detect the period of time when the DED significantly correlates with the weather variables. We found a strong seasonal interdependence between the air temperature and DED for a periodicity of 256-512 days and 128-256 days. The relationship between the humidity and DED also shows a significant interdependence for a periodicity of 256-512 days with average coherence equal to 0.8. Regarding the radiation and wind speed, the correlation is low with average coherence less than 0.5. These results provide an insight into the properties of the impacts of weather variables on electricity demand on the basis of which power planners can rely to improve their forecasting and planning of electricity demand.
本文应用小波变换相干性(WTC)和相位分析方法分析了日电力需求(DED)与温度、相对湿度、风速和辐射等天气变量之间的关系。DED数据呈现季节波动和增加趋势,而天气变量仅描述季节变化。从WTC和相位分析得到的结果使我们能够探测到DED与天气变量显著相关的时间段。我们发现气温与DED之间存在很强的季节相关性,周期性为256 ~ 512天和128 ~ 256天。在平均相干度为0.8的周期(256 ~ 512 d)内,湿度与DED之间也表现出显著的相互依赖关系。辐射与风速相关性较低,平均相干度小于0.5。这些结果提供了对天气变量对电力需求影响特性的深入了解,在此基础上,电力规划者可以依靠这些变量来改进他们对电力需求的预测和规划。
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引用次数: 8
Energy Poverty and Its Implication on Standard of Living in Kirinyaga, Kenya 能源贫困及其对肯尼亚基里尼亚加生活水平的影响
Pub Date : 2018-11-14 DOI: 10.1155/2018/3196567
C. Njiru, S. Letema
Energy poverty affects physical health, well-being, and ability to prosper. A large proportion of Kenyan population lack access to electricity because they are located far from the national grid where it is uneconomical to extend electricity. This paper assesses energy poverty situation in Kirinyaga and reviews its implication on standard of living. Kirinyaga is a rural county with the main economic activity being agriculture and a few agroprocessing factories. Most rural households in Kirinyaga rely on fuel wood to meet their basic energy requirements and lack access to electricity. Tea factories and educational institutions rely on fuel wood to minimize cost of electricity. Kirinyaga residents, therefore, experience energy poverty as indicated by low electricity access and reliance on traditional cooking fuels. Energy poverty in Kirinyaga has negative impact on indicators of standards of living, calorific intake, life expectancy, and literacy levels.
能源匮乏会影响身体健康、幸福和成功的能力。很大一部分肯尼亚人无法获得电力,因为他们远离国家电网,在那里扩大电力供应是不经济的。本文评估了基里亚加的能源贫困状况,并回顾了其对生活水平的影响。Kirinyaga是一个农村县,主要经济活动是农业和一些农产品加工厂。Kirinyaga的大多数农村家庭依靠薪柴来满足基本的能源需求,而且无法获得电力。茶厂和教育机构依靠木柴来降低电力成本。因此,基里尼亚加居民经历着能源贫困,这体现在电力供应不足和对传统烹饪燃料的依赖上。基里尼亚加的能源贫困对生活水平、热量摄入、预期寿命和识字率等指标产生了负面影响。
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引用次数: 90
Corrigendum to “How Households Adopt Sustainable Innovations? A Free Decision Enforced by Others” “住户如何采用可持续创新?”由他人强制执行的自由决定”
Pub Date : 2018-11-01 DOI: 10.1155/2018/8501621
I. Kastner, Sebastian Bobeth
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引用次数: 0
Techno-Economic Analysis of Biomass Energy Utilization through Gasification Technology for Sustainable Energy Production and Economic Development in Nigeria 尼日利亚通过气化技术利用生物质能源促进可持续能源生产和经济发展的技术经济分析
Pub Date : 2018-10-18 DOI: 10.1155/2018/4860252
G. Sobamowo, S. J. Ojolo
Nigeria has not been able to provide enough electric power to her about 200 million people. The last effort by the federal government to generate 6000 MW power by the end of 2009 failed. Even with the available less than 6000 MW of electricity generated in the country, only about 40% of the population have access to the electricity from the National Grid, out of which, urban centers have more than 80% accessibility while rural areas, which constitute about 70% of the total population, have less than 20% of accessibility to electricity. This paper addresses the possibility of meeting the energy demand in Nigeria through biomass gasification technology. The techno-economic analysis of biomass energy is demonstrated and the advantages of the biomass gasification technology are presented. Following the technical analysis, Nigeria is projected to have total potential of biomass of about 5.5 EJ in 2020 which has been forecast to increase to about 29.8 EJ by 2050. Based on a planned selling price of $0.727/kWh, the net present value of the project was found to be positive, the cost benefit ratio is greater than 1, and the payback period of the project is 10.14 years. These economic indicators established the economic viability of the project at the given cost. However, economic analysis shows a selling price of $0.727/kWh. Therefore, the capital investment cost, operation and maintenance cost, and fuel cost can be reduced through the development of the gasification system using local materials, purposeful and efficient plantation of biomass for the energy generation, giving out of financial incentives by the government to the investors, and locating the power plant very close to the source of feedstock generation.
尼日利亚无法为大约2亿人提供足够的电力。联邦政府在2009年底前发电6000兆瓦的最后一次努力失败了。即使该国的可用发电量不足6000兆瓦,也只有约40%的人口可以从国家电网获得电力,其中城市中心的可达性超过80%,而占总人口约70%的农村地区的可达性不到20%。本文论述了通过生物质气化技术满足尼日利亚能源需求的可能性。对生物质能源进行了技术经济分析,介绍了生物质气化技术的优越性。根据技术分析,预计到2020年,尼日利亚的生物质总潜力约为5.5 EJ,预计到2050年将增加到约29.8 EJ。以0.727美元/千瓦时的计划销售价格计算,项目净现值为正,成本效益比大于1,项目投资回收期为10.14年。这些经济指标确定了项目在给定成本下的经济可行性。然而,经济分析显示售价为0.727美元/千瓦时。因此,通过开发使用当地材料的气化系统,有目的地和有效地种植生物质发电,政府向投资者提供财政激励,以及将发电厂选址在离原料发电源非常近的地方,可以降低资本投资成本、运行和维护成本以及燃料成本。
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引用次数: 32
Evaluation of the Technical Wind Energy Potential of Kisii Region Based on the Weibull and Rayleigh Distribution Models 基于Weibull和Rayleigh分布模型的基溪地区风能技术潜力评价
Pub Date : 2018-10-12 DOI: 10.20944/preprints201810.0256.v1
Laban N. Ongaki, C. Maghanga, J. Kerongo
Background. Global warming is a growing threat in the world today mainly due to the emission of CO2 caused by the burning of fossil fuel. Consequently, countries are being forced to seek potential alternative sources of energy such as wind, solar, and photovoltaic among many others. However, the realization of their benefits is faced with challenges. Though wind stands a chance to solve this problem, the lack of adequate site profiles, long-term behavioural information, and specific data information that enables informed choice on site selection, turbine selection, and expected power output has remained a challenge to its exploitation. In this research, Weibull and Rayleigh models are adopted. Wind speeds were analyzed and characterized in the short term and then simulated for a long-term measured hourly series data of daily wind speeds at a height of 10 m. The analysis included daily wind data which was grouped into discrete data and then calculated to represent the mean wind speed, diurnal variations, daily variations, and monthly variations. To verify the models, statistical tools of Chi square, RMSE, MBE, and correlational coefficient were applied. Also, the method of measure, correlate, and predict was adopted to check for the reliability of the data used. The wind speed frequency distribution at the height of 10 m was found to be 2.9 ms-1 with a standard deviation of 1.5. From the six months’ experiments, averages of wind speeds at hub heights of 10 m were calculated and found to be 1.7 m/s, 2.4 m/s, and 1.3 m/s, for Ikobe, Kisii University, and Nyamecheo stations, respectively. The wind power density of the region was found to be 29 W/m2. By a narrow margin, Rayleigh proves to be a better method over Weibull in predicting wind power density in the region. Wind speeds at the site are noted to be decreasing over the years. The region is shown as marginal on extrapolation to 30 m for wind energy generation hence adequate for nongrid connected electrical and mechanical applications. The strong correlation between the site wind profiles proves data reliability. The gradual decrease of wind power over the years calls for attention.
背景。全球变暖是当今世界日益严重的威胁,主要是由于燃烧化石燃料产生的二氧化碳排放。因此,各国正被迫寻求潜在的替代能源,如风能、太阳能和光伏等。然而,他们的利益的实现面临着挑战。虽然风能有机会解决这个问题,但缺乏足够的场地概况、长期行为信息和具体的数据信息,这些信息可以在场地选择、涡轮机选择和预期功率输出方面做出明智的选择,这仍然是风能开发的一个挑战。本研究采用Weibull和Rayleigh模型。对风速进行了短期的分析和表征,然后对10 m高度的逐日风速的长期逐时序列数据进行了模拟。分析包括将日风数据分组为离散数据,然后计算平均风速、日变化、日变化和月变化。为了验证模型,采用卡方、RMSE、MBE和相关系数等统计工具。并采用测量、关联、预测等方法对数据的可靠性进行检验。10 m高度风速频率分布为2.9 ms-1,标准差为1.5。通过6个月的试验,计算出在10 m轮毂高度的平均风速,发现神户站、基宜大学站和Nyamecheo站分别为1.7 m/s、2.4 m/s和1.3 m/s。该区域的风力密度为29 W/m2。在预测该地区的风力密度方面,瑞利被证明是比威布尔更好的方法。该地点的风速多年来一直在下降。根据外推,该区域显示为风力发电30米的边缘,因此适合非电网连接的电气和机械应用。现场风廓线之间的强相关性证明了数据的可靠性。近年来风力的逐渐减少引起了人们的注意。
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引用次数: 3
Behavior of a Dual Stator Induction Machine Fed by Neutral Point Clamped Multilevel Inverter 中性点箝位多电平逆变器馈入双定子感应电机的特性
Pub Date : 2018-10-10 DOI: 10.1155/2018/6968023
M. Khlifi
Use of multilevel inverters with induction machines has become popular in most energy conversion and management systems. The present paper discusses the behavior of the dual stator-winding induction machine (DSIM) for the power source, which is a power supply with Neutral Point Clamped (NPC). Multilevel inverter with PWM technique control is analyzed. The DSIM control is obtained by the PWM technique to multicarrier PWM technique and after a comparative study of various characteristics of the DSIM taking into account the different electrical offsets between the two stars (0°, 30°, 60°). The gap between the two stars was considered, and it is impacted on torque and rates harmonic distortion of circulation currents.
在大多数能量转换和管理系统中,使用感应电机的多电平逆变器已经很流行。本文讨论了双定子绕组感应电机(DSIM)在中性点箝位(NPC)电源中的工作特性。分析了采用PWM技术控制的多电平逆变器。考虑到两星(0°、30°、60°)的不同电偏,采用PWM技术和多载波PWM技术对DSIM的各种特性进行了比较研究,得到了DSIM的控制。考虑了两星之间的间隙对转矩和环流谐波畸变率的影响。
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引用次数: 10
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Journal of Energy
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