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building of Brazilian Party System 巴西政党制度的建设
Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2024.73559
Décio Vieira da Rocha, Paula Cruz Pimentel
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the phenomenon of the formation and success of new parties in the period of redemocratization and the return of Brazilian multipartyism (1979-2018). Although the phenomenon is recurrent in Brazil, few studies have looked more directly at the subject in Brazil. What are the determinants of the ongoing formation of new parties? Our hypotheses are that the permissiveness of the electoral system loses effect when actors adapt to it and that factors endogenous to political competition increase the likelihood of new parties emerging. We use previous methodologies and conceptualize new parties as those that are organizationally new (obtain a new registration) and win at least one seat in the Chamber of Deputies. We divided the parties into contestation or coaptation parties to assess the impact of institutional and economic variables on them. Our results indicate that parties that are totally "outside the system" (those of contestation) have more difficulty in becoming competitive, demonstrating that the phenomenon of the appearance of new acronyms is more linked to a strategic reorganization of the elites than to a demand from voters.
本文的主要目的是分析巴西重新民主化和多党制回归时期(1979-2018 年)新政党的形成和成功现象。虽然这一现象在巴西反复出现,但很少有研究更直接地探讨巴西的这一问题。新政党不断形成的决定因素是什么?我们的假设是,当参与者适应选举制度时,选举制度的宽松性就会失去作用,而政治竞争的内生因素会增加新政党出现的可能性。我们采用以往的方法,将新政党概念化为组织上新成立(获得新注册)并在众议院赢得至少一个席位的政党。我们将政党分为竞争型政党和联合型政党,以评估制度和经济变量对它们的影响。我们的研究结果表明,完全 "游离于体制之外 "的政党(竞争型政党)更难成为有竞争力的政党,这表明新缩写政党的出现更多地与精英阶层的战略重组有关,而非选民的需求。
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引用次数: 0
Guerra Fría, Reforma Agraria y patrimonio agroalimentario: la Empresa Pisquera del Estado (Chile, 1970-1973) 冷战、土地改革和农业食品遗产:Empresa Pisquera del Estado(智利,1970-1973 年)
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.71016
Alessandro Santoni, E. Fediakova, Pablo Lacoste
La Empresa Pisquera del Estado tenía como objetivo crear de un símbolo del prestigio para la revolución socialista en Chile a partir del destilado emblemático y patrimonial de Chile. A su vez, representaba la radicalización de la Reforma Agraria y apuntaba a legitimar la expropiación de viñedos de acuerdo a los criterios establecidos por Benito Marianetti que representaba la visión del PC, inspirado en los socialismos reales. La investigación se realizó a partir de las actas de la principal cooperativa pisquera, la prensa de la época y entrevistas personales a informantes en el contexto de las luchas políticas y las tensiones internacionales de la Guerra Fría. Se detecta que la falta de planificación, el exceso de improvisación y las contradicciones ideológicas de las fuerzas gubernistas comprometieron la viabilidad del proyecto.
国家葡萄园公司(Empresa Pisquera del Estado)的目标是以智利的标志性遗产蒸馏物为基础,为智利的社会主义革命创造一个声望的象征。与此同时,它还代表了土地改革的激进化,旨在根据贝尼托-马里亚内蒂(Benito Marianetti)制定的标准,将征用葡萄园合法化。研究是在冷战时期政治斗争和国际紧张局势的背景下,根据主要皮斯卡合作社的会议记录、当时的新闻媒体以及对知情者的个人访谈进行的。研究发现,缺乏规划、过度的即兴创作以及管理力量的意识形态矛盾损害了项目的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的可持续性
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.71278
Maria Regina Araújo Ramos, Alexandrina Sobreira de Moura, Luiza Vilela Amelotti
How do socioeconomic and political arrangements relate to sustainability? Based on a sample of 24 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, between 2011 and 2019, this study examines the hypothesis that better performance in socioeconomic and political variables is associated with higher levels of sustainability. Here, this concept is measured through the Social Progress Index (SPI) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 10, "Reduced Inequalities", and 11, "Sustainable Cities and Communities". The research design considers correlation tests, panel data regression, and an empirical description of the Chilean and Brazilian contexts. The results show that performance in the SPI and the SDG 11 is primarily associated with economic arrangements, while the SDG 10 is more closely linked to the political dynamics of the state. Furthermore, by analyzing Chile and Brazil, this study identifies that the countries also have particular effects on the indices. The conceptual impact of these results enriches socioeconomic and political interventions for sustainability and provides valuable insights for future research.
社会经济和政治安排与可持续性有何关系?本研究以 2011 年至 2019 年期间拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的 24 个国家为样本,探讨了社会经济和政治变量表现更好与可持续性水平更高相关联的假设。在此,这一概念通过社会进步指数(SPI)和可持续发展目标(SDGs)10 "减少不平等 "和11 "可持续城市和社区 "来衡量。研究设计考虑了相关性测试、面板数据回归以及智利和巴西的经验描述。结果表明,SPI 和可持续发展目标 11 的绩效主要与经济安排有关,而可持续发展目标 10 与国家的政治动态关系更为密切。此外,通过对智利和巴西的分析,本研究发现这两个国家对这些指数也有特殊的影响。这些结果在概念上的影响丰富了促进可持续性的社会经济和政治干预措施,并为今后的研究提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Trayectorias diferenciadas en la centro-izquierda latinoamericana 拉丁美洲中左翼的不同轨迹
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.73187
O. Avendaño, M. C. Escudero
Este artículo analiza el proceso de construcción de dos partidos de centro-izquierda latinoamericanos. Se trata del Frente Amplio (FA) uruguayo, creado en 1971, y del Frente Para el País Solidario (Frepaso), surgido en Argentina en la primera mitad de los años noventa. En base al “método de la semejanza”, utilizado para la comparación de tipo binaria, se realiza la selección de los casos dado que ambos partidos comparten el hecho de haber surgido en épocas de crisis y haber logrado ser alternativa a los partidos tradicionales. Por su parte, con el uso del “método de la diferencia” se pudo contrastar las especificidades entre ambos casos y advertir que la existencia de elementos distintivos explica trayectorias y resultados tan disímiles. La comparación entre el FA y el Frepaso se realiza, además, tomando en cuenta la literatura sobre las oposiciones, en el contexto de las democracias contemporáneas y, en especial, de los presidencialismos latinoamericanos.
本文分析了两个拉丁美洲中左翼政党的建设过程。这两个政党分别是创建于 1971 年的乌拉圭人民阵线(Frente Amplio,FA)和 20 世纪 90 年代前半期在阿根廷崛起的国家团结阵线(Frente Para el País Solidario,Frepaso)。鉴于这两个政党都是在危机时期崛起,并成功地成为传统政党的替代者,因此根据用于二元比较的 "相似法 "选择了这两个案例。使用 "差异法 "可以对比两个案例之间的特殊性,并注意到独特因素的存在可以解释这种不同的轨迹和结果。在对足总杯和弗莱帕索进行比较时,还考虑到了有关当代民主政体,特别是拉丁美洲总统制背景下的反对派的文献。
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引用次数: 0
inner circle of presidents 总统圈
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.73188
Ignacio Arana Araya
Who belongs to the inner circle of presidents remains understudied. Preceding research has mostly focused on advisors and ministers separately, and has not integrated other groups who also influence presidents. I argue that families, advisors, and ministers are members of the inner circle of presidents and support the leaders’ affective, intellectual, and political needs, respectively. I also propose that the inner circle becomes more functional when its three component groups work with a clear division of labor, are diverse, and combine hierarchical and horizontal relations with presidents. Semi-structured interviews conducted with 24 former Latin American presidents support that inner circles are composed of family, advisors, and ministers, although more evidence is needed to assess what constitutes a functional inner circle.
谁属于总统的核心圈子仍然没有得到充分研究。此前的研究大多将重点分别放在顾问和部长身上,而没有将同样影响总统的其他群体纳入其中。我认为,家人、顾问和部长都是总统核心圈子的成员,他们分别支持领导人的情感、智力和政治需求。我还提出,如果总统核心圈的三个组成群体分工明确、形式多样,并且与总统的关系既有上下级关系又有横向关系,那么总统核心圈就能发挥更大的作用。对 24 位拉美前总统进行的半结构式访谈证实,核心圈子由家人、顾问和部长组成,但还需要更多证据来评估什么是功能性核心圈子。
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引用次数: 0
Confiança na polícia e atitudes políticas autoritárias na América Latina 拉丁美洲对警察的信任和独裁政治态度
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.71171
Geélison Ferreira da Silva, Carlos Ranulfo Felix de Melo, Ludmila Mendonça Lopes Ribeiro, Diego Maradona Cortezzi Guimarães Pedras
O objetivo deste artigo é explicar a confiança na polícia através da abordagem atitudinal que considera o efeito das atitudes políticas, micro e macrossociais, sobre a variável dependente (confiança na polícia) com dados do Lapop (2012) em 22 países latino-americanos. A hipótese é que em contexto de baixa qualidade democrática e ineficácia da polícia para garantir segurança pública e limitado respeito à lei é possível existir confiança institucional se as atitudes políticas dos cidadãos forem autoritárias. São testados os efeitos das atitudes políticas sobre a variável dependente através do modelo de efeitos fixos por país. Os resultados confirmam que atitudes políticas são importantes para explicar a confiança nas instituições policiais e que as atitudes autoritárias analisadas apresenaram impacto positivo sobre ela, na América Latina. A principal contribuição do estudo é identificar associação positiva entre autoritarismo e confiança institucional em contexto de percalços da democracia e das instituições policiais.
本文旨在利用拉波普(2012 年)在 22 个拉丁美洲国家的数据,采用态度方法解释对警察的信任,该方法考虑了微观和宏观社会政治态度对因变量(对警察的信任)的影响。我们的假设是,在民主质量不高、警察在保障公共安全方面效率低下以及对法律的尊重有限的情况下,如果公民的政治态度是专制的,那么机构信任是可能的。我们使用国家固定效应模型检验了政治态度对因变量的影响。结果证实,政治态度对于解释对警察机构的信任非常重要,而且在拉丁美洲,所分析的专制态度对信任有积极影响。这项研究的主要贡献在于,在民主和警察机构出现失误的情况下,确定了专制与机构信任之间的正相关关系。
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引用次数: 0
A NEW EURASIAN BLOC? CHARACTERIZING THE ACTIVITY OF FORMER SOVIET AND TURKIC COUNTRIES AT THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY 新的欧亚集团?前苏联和土耳其国家在联合国大会上的活动特点
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.72312
Vlademir Monteiro, Vinícius Santana, Rafael Mesquita
Soviet countries were the most cohesive bloc in the UN General Assembly (UNGA) during the bipolar era, after which the East-West cleavage was replaced by a North-South division. Hence, the Soviet space fell out of the attention of UN research in the post-Cold War era. However, this North-South polarization arises mainly from voting analyses that ignore other interstate activities at the UN. An analysis of sponsorship patterns of draft resolutions from the last decade, in contrast, reveals alternative groups, including a cluster with former Soviet, Eastern European, and Turkish-speaking countries, suggesting some unity among Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Türkiye, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In light of such evidence, this exploratory paper uses data on UNGA sponsorship between 2009 and 2019 to descriptively characterize this newfound coalition of Eurasian countries, probing what their pattern of UNGA activity is and what topics bind them together as a group.
在两极时代,苏联国家是联合国大会(UNGA)中最有凝聚力的集团。因此,苏联空间在后冷战时代不再受到联合国研究的关注。然而,这种南北极分化主要源于忽视联合国其他国家间活动的投票分析。与此相反,对过去十年决议草案提案国模式的分析揭示了不同的群体,包括前苏联、东欧和土耳其语国家,这表明亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、俄罗斯、塔吉克斯坦、土耳其、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦之间存在某种团结。鉴于这些证据,这篇探索性论文使用 2009 年至 2019 年联合国大会赞助国的数据来描述这个新发现的欧亚国家联盟的特征,探究它们的联合国大会活动模式是什么,以及哪些议题将它们作为一个群体联系在一起。
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引用次数: 0
riesgo del proteccionismo comercial turbio en una economía global interconectada e incierta 相互关联和不确定的全球经济中模糊的贸易保护主义风险
Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.70690
Nicolás Albertoni
Este artículo no trata sobre el libre comercio ni sobre el protec­cionismo. Se trata del punto donde los dos pueden converger. Un aspecto distintivo del aumento del proteccionismo durante la última década es que se produce en un contexto de mayor interconectividad global. Durante las últimas tres décadas, los países de todo el mundo se han integrado más a través de acuer­dos comerciales preferenciales (ACP) y cadenas de valor globales (CVG), al mismo tiempo que han erigido nuevas barreras comer­ciales. ¿Qué explica estas trayectorias contradictorias? La literatura sobre la economía política del proteccionismo comercial mues­tra fácilmente que los ACP promueven las interdependencias comerciales; también ofrece argumentos convincentes sobre las circunstancias en las que los gobiernos se ven obligados a pro­teger sus economías. Sin embargo, tenemos poca evidencia de cómo estas dos trayectorias ocurren a la vez. Este artículo ofrece nueva evidencia de que los mecanismos institucionales como los ACP, que durante décadas han impulsado la difusión de la liberalización comercial, también pueden convertirse en canales para la propagación de proteccionismo menos transparente (por ejemplo, medidas no arancelarias).
这篇文章不是关于自由贸易或保护主义的。这是两者可以汇聚的地方。过去十年保护主义抬头的一个显著特征是,它发生在全球互联互通加剧的背景下。在过去30年里,世界各国通过特惠贸易协定(ACP)和全球价值链(gvc)进一步一体化,同时建立了新的贸易壁垒。是什么解释了这些相互矛盾的轨迹?关于贸易保护主义政治经济学的文献很容易表明,非加太国家促进了贸易相互依赖;它还为政府被迫支持其经济的情况提供了令人信服的论据。然而,我们几乎没有证据表明这两种轨迹是如何同时发生的。这篇文章提供了新的证据,证明像ACP这样的制度机制,几十年来推动了贸易自由化的传播,也可能成为不那么透明的保护主义(如非关税措施)传播的渠道。
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引用次数: 0
propuesta tipológica para entender los gobiernos interinos latinoamericanos (1980-2022) 理解拉丁美洲临时政府的类型学建议(1980-2022)
Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.71362
Tito Olavarría Azocar
Entre 1980 y 2022, veintidós presidentes interinos han asumido el poder en América Latina. Si bien las causas son múltiples, la mayoría se relaciona con la inestabilidad y las crisis presi­denciales. Este artículo propone una clasificación tipológica basada en casos empíricos y utiliza un enfoque metodológico configuracional con las técnicas del conjunto nítido del Método Cualitativo Comparativo (csQCA). Además, se ofrece un análi­sis descriptivo para profundizar en la relación entre la tipología y los casos seleccionados. Los resultados definen los tipos de presidencias interinas como: provisionales, fuertes, desafiantes, débiles y fallidas, lo que demuestra la variedad de dinámicas en los diferentes casos. En la descripción, se profundiza en la aplicación de la clasificación en dos casos específicos: Itamar Franco y Martín Vizcarra, lo que demuestra la utilidad de la tipología.
1980年至2022年间,拉丁美洲有22位临时总统上台。虽然原因有很多,但大多数与不稳定和总统危机有关。本文提出了一种基于实证案例的类型学分类,并使用了一种配置方法论方法,结合了定性比较方法(csQCA)的清晰集技术。此外,还提供了描述性分析,以深化类型学和所选案例之间的关系。结果将临时总统的类型定义为:临时总统、强总统、有挑战性总统、弱总统和失败总统,显示了不同情况下的动态差异。在描述中,我们深入研究了分类在两个具体案例中的应用:Itamar Franco和martin Vizcarra,这证明了类型学的有用性。
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引用次数: 0
Ordinary citizens and political crises: The Hong Kong Anti-Extradition Movement (2019-2020) 普通公民与政治危机:香港反引渡运动(2019-2020)
Pub Date : 2023-08-22 DOI: 10.5354/0719-3769.2023.71195
Juan Enrique Serrano Moreno
This study focuses on the actions and perceptions of individuals who participated in the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill (Anti-ELAB) movement in Hong Kong initiated in April 2019 and interrupted by the covid 19 pandemic and the adoption of the National Security Law in June 2020. Based on semi-struc­tured interviews, the article explains how ordinary citizens and first-time activists helped shape a political crisis and how it changed their political perceptions. The study adopts a theoretical perspective inspired by studies of collective action in contexts of political crises, placing the individual at the centre of the analysis and adopting a situational and proces­sual approach. The findings show that the actors perceived themselves as protagonists of historical events produced by the authoritarian turn of the Hong Kong political system thanks to the appropriation of new identities, the radicalisation of their liberal values and the mobilisation of their previous skills and resources.
本研究的重点是参与2019年4月发起的香港《反引渡法修正案》(Anti-ELAB)运动的个人的行为和看法,该运动因2019冠状病毒病大流行和2020年6月《国家安全法》的通过而中断。本文以半结构化访谈为基础,解释了普通公民和首次参与政治活动的人士如何帮助塑造了一场政治危机,以及这场危机如何改变了他们的政治观念。该研究采用的理论视角受到政治危机背景下集体行动研究的启发,将个人置于分析的中心,并采用情境和过程方法。研究结果显示,由于新身份的挪用、自由主义价值观的激进化以及他们以前的技能和资源的调动,演员们认为自己是香港政治体制威权转向所产生的历史事件的主角。
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引用次数: 0
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Estudios Internacionales
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