Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193246
L.F. De Roberto, W.B. Gomes Netto, J. O. Gomes, M. Heitz, N. Edwards, D. Woods, S. Isaac, E. Patterson
Controlling hydrostatic pressure in an drilling platform is the primary means of preventing an escape of oil or gas to the surface. This extremely dynamic system coordinates the efforts of many departments constantly responding to changing circumstances, where communication plays a critical role for operational success. Simply attributing the cause of these accidents to human error is a fundamental misunderstanding of the way humans and machines interact in a complex system. In this study, the causes of blowouts were investigated from a systems point of view, identifying weaknesses that contribute to opportunities for humans to make mistakes. When designing a complex system, the goal is that mistakes are uncovered by the system long before a human has to act. The objective of this study is to eliminate design mistakes in the system so humans are not acting upon incorrect or incomplete information that may contribute to hazardous accidents.
{"title":"Out of well control","authors":"L.F. De Roberto, W.B. Gomes Netto, J. O. Gomes, M. Heitz, N. Edwards, D. Woods, S. Isaac, E. Patterson","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193246","url":null,"abstract":"Controlling hydrostatic pressure in an drilling platform is the primary means of preventing an escape of oil or gas to the surface. This extremely dynamic system coordinates the efforts of many departments constantly responding to changing circumstances, where communication plays a critical role for operational success. Simply attributing the cause of these accidents to human error is a fundamental misunderstanding of the way humans and machines interact in a complex system. In this study, the causes of blowouts were investigated from a systems point of view, identifying weaknesses that contribute to opportunities for humans to make mistakes. When designing a complex system, the goal is that mistakes are uncovered by the system long before a human has to act. The objective of this study is to eliminate design mistakes in the system so humans are not acting upon incorrect or incomplete information that may contribute to hazardous accidents.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116065425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193255
F.G.M. Prats
This paper describes the design and implementation of a methodology for parsing free-text narratives in an expert decision system for law enforcement. The problem arises from local law enforcement agencies' inability to effectively utilize criminal incident data for crime prevention. The paper proposes previously unsupported functionality in criminal incident data association expert decision systems - the automated ability of incorporating information from narrative fields from a criminal incident record management system into the analysis. A software module called TALON, the Textual Analysis and Linking of Narratives implements the methodology. Performance evaluation utilizes precision and recall metrics from information retrieval in a controlled experiment. This experiment uses the methodology on a set of documents wherein the relevance of every document is known for every possible selection of a target search document. The work presented provides a strong basis for measuring the utility of implementing alternative forms of narrative parsing for similar analyses.
{"title":"Textual Analysis and Linking of Narratives (TALON)","authors":"F.G.M. Prats","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193255","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the design and implementation of a methodology for parsing free-text narratives in an expert decision system for law enforcement. The problem arises from local law enforcement agencies' inability to effectively utilize criminal incident data for crime prevention. The paper proposes previously unsupported functionality in criminal incident data association expert decision systems - the automated ability of incorporating information from narrative fields from a criminal incident record management system into the analysis. A software module called TALON, the Textual Analysis and Linking of Narratives implements the methodology. Performance evaluation utilizes precision and recall metrics from information retrieval in a controlled experiment. This experiment uses the methodology on a set of documents wherein the relevance of every document is known for every possible selection of a target search document. The work presented provides a strong basis for measuring the utility of implementing alternative forms of narrative parsing for similar analyses.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"58 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128553743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193264
M. Manzi, B. Soltani, S. Guerlain, P. Antonello, J. Queres, J. O. Gomes
The ballast control system, part of the vessel management system (VMS), allows operators of an offshore oil drilling platform to use the vessel's fluid control system to keep the vessel at an even keel. This procedure is critical during the drilling process and for the overall safety of the ship. Based on a heuristic evaluation of the ballast control operator interface for a vessel being commissioned, this paper describes a prototype which implements human computer interface (HCI) design principles that were lacking in the original displays. The former design included elements of information overload, poor shape and coloring of icons, inconsistent layouts, and inadequate menu designs. We prototyped a simulation plus operator interface to explore improvements in these areas and for enabling future students in the US-Brazil exchange program to understand and build on the current design. This paper reviews the existing ballast control operator interface on the Pride do Rio oil drilling platform and describes the features of the new prototype simulation system.
{"title":"Designing a ballast control system operator interface","authors":"M. Manzi, B. Soltani, S. Guerlain, P. Antonello, J. Queres, J. O. Gomes","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193264","url":null,"abstract":"The ballast control system, part of the vessel management system (VMS), allows operators of an offshore oil drilling platform to use the vessel's fluid control system to keep the vessel at an even keel. This procedure is critical during the drilling process and for the overall safety of the ship. Based on a heuristic evaluation of the ballast control operator interface for a vessel being commissioned, this paper describes a prototype which implements human computer interface (HCI) design principles that were lacking in the original displays. The former design included elements of information overload, poor shape and coloring of icons, inconsistent layouts, and inadequate menu designs. We prototyped a simulation plus operator interface to explore improvements in these areas and for enabling future students in the US-Brazil exchange program to understand and build on the current design. This paper reviews the existing ballast control operator interface on the Pride do Rio oil drilling platform and describes the features of the new prototype simulation system.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116509918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193257
Jeff C, Craig Free, Brigitte Hover, Alison Jones, Akiul Sehgal, Ganick E Louis 151 Engineer 's Wa
This paper documents the development of portable kit for testing and mapping water quality in the field. Previously, thorough testing and reporting on well water quality required multiple steps, including costly and time-consuming lab work that often made such testing impractical. To address this problem, a water sampling kit was created that consists of a pocket PC, a GPS receiver and probes to test for pollutants. The kit automatically records the geographical coordinates at the water sampling site, as well as the data collected by the probes into one spreadsheet. The data is then linked to a GIS for display in a simple and usable manner. The efficiency of the kit gives it the potential to create a new standard for sampling water, particularly in the case of private wells, which are currently inadequately monitored due to scarce state resources. This paper describes the process of researching, designing, and testing the water sampling system.
{"title":"Development of innovative techniques for testing and mapping private well water quality","authors":"Jeff C, Craig Free, Brigitte Hover, Alison Jones, Akiul Sehgal, Ganick E Louis 151 Engineer 's Wa","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193257","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the development of portable kit for testing and mapping water quality in the field. Previously, thorough testing and reporting on well water quality required multiple steps, including costly and time-consuming lab work that often made such testing impractical. To address this problem, a water sampling kit was created that consists of a pocket PC, a GPS receiver and probes to test for pollutants. The kit automatically records the geographical coordinates at the water sampling site, as well as the data collected by the probes into one spreadsheet. The data is then linked to a GIS for display in a simple and usable manner. The efficiency of the kit gives it the potential to create a new standard for sampling water, particularly in the case of private wells, which are currently inadequately monitored due to scarce state resources. This paper describes the process of researching, designing, and testing the water sampling system.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128016312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193235
C. W. Anderson, D.J. Courain, P. A. Edmonds, A.C. Gouldey, N. Ward
This project seeks to address the need of the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) to identify and manage the increasing number of interdependencies within the highway system. It incorporates risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the analysis of a terrorist attack or natural disaster for three major bridge-tunnels in Southeast Virginia. The results of this study provide insight into how to manage the cascading effects of interdependency risks to the individual case studies, and to the state of Virginia as a whole. Management policies were developed to unlock the transportation system interdependencies and to reduce the impacts to them following a transportation disruption.
{"title":"A risk-based methodology for modeling, assessing, and managing risks to the Hampton roads bridge tunnels","authors":"C. W. Anderson, D.J. Courain, P. A. Edmonds, A.C. Gouldey, N. Ward","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193235","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193235","url":null,"abstract":"This project seeks to address the need of the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) to identify and manage the increasing number of interdependencies within the highway system. It incorporates risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the analysis of a terrorist attack or natural disaster for three major bridge-tunnels in Southeast Virginia. The results of this study provide insight into how to manage the cascading effects of interdependency risks to the individual case studies, and to the state of Virginia as a whole. Management policies were developed to unlock the transportation system interdependencies and to reduce the impacts to them following a transportation disruption.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115868890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193269
Jorge E. Rodríguez, A. Medaglia, J. P. Casas
The design of the tubular frame of a chopper motorcycle is a challenging engineering problem due in part to the conflicting nature between the two main design criteria, namely, to minimize the frame mass and to minimize the maximum structural stress. The problem is even more complex under the presence of different kinds of decision parameters: discrete (e.g., standardized tube diameters available in the market) and continuous (e.g., angles and fillets). This project presents an optimization approach for the design of such frame topology based on evolutionary algorithms and employing finite element analysis for structural calculations. The proposed evolutionary algorithm deals with the two mentioned optimization objectives and the mixed decision parameters involved in the design. A communication routine between the structural simulation software and the evolutionary algorithm was developed to automate this hybrid technique. Frames obtained are compared to those of a previous study using a conventional design method, showing important progress in the frame's performance.
{"title":"Approximation to the optimum design of a motorcycle frame using finite element analysis and evolutionary algorithms","authors":"Jorge E. Rodríguez, A. Medaglia, J. P. Casas","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193269","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193269","url":null,"abstract":"The design of the tubular frame of a chopper motorcycle is a challenging engineering problem due in part to the conflicting nature between the two main design criteria, namely, to minimize the frame mass and to minimize the maximum structural stress. The problem is even more complex under the presence of different kinds of decision parameters: discrete (e.g., standardized tube diameters available in the market) and continuous (e.g., angles and fillets). This project presents an optimization approach for the design of such frame topology based on evolutionary algorithms and employing finite element analysis for structural calculations. The proposed evolutionary algorithm deals with the two mentioned optimization objectives and the mixed decision parameters involved in the design. A communication routine between the structural simulation software and the evolutionary algorithm was developed to automate this hybrid technique. Frames obtained are compared to those of a previous study using a conventional design method, showing important progress in the frame's performance.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"226 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120863300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193266
S. MacDonald, I. Karkam, N. Al-Shiwarri, R. Chowdhary, E.M. Escalante, A. Afandi
The University Medical Center's Emergency Department (ED) in Tucson, Arizona, has faced continually increasing patient numbers and mounting costs while resources have remained fairly static. This phenomenon, termed "crowding" has been observed as a growing problem nationwide. The purpose of this project is to decrease overall patient throughput time by identifying potential bottlenecks and proposing strategies to alleviate them. A simulation model of the University Medical Center's ED patient process has been created using ARENA software. The model reflects data obtained from the department as well as from in-house time studies and interviews. Following validation of the model with department personnel alternative solutions were tested by altering various stages of the model and analyzed according to department requirements and preferences. The analysis results and proposed alternative solutions will be presented to ED administrators who are tasked with making the final decision.
{"title":"Emergency department process improvement","authors":"S. MacDonald, I. Karkam, N. Al-Shiwarri, R. Chowdhary, E.M. Escalante, A. Afandi","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193266","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193266","url":null,"abstract":"The University Medical Center's Emergency Department (ED) in Tucson, Arizona, has faced continually increasing patient numbers and mounting costs while resources have remained fairly static. This phenomenon, termed \"crowding\" has been observed as a growing problem nationwide. The purpose of this project is to decrease overall patient throughput time by identifying potential bottlenecks and proposing strategies to alleviate them. A simulation model of the University Medical Center's ED patient process has been created using ARENA software. The model reflects data obtained from the department as well as from in-house time studies and interviews. Following validation of the model with department personnel alternative solutions were tested by altering various stages of the model and analyzed according to department requirements and preferences. The analysis results and proposed alternative solutions will be presented to ED administrators who are tasked with making the final decision.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128380298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193281
T. Boudreau, M. Davis, L. Déléry, J. Korbich, S. Lambert, E. Vogel, B. Tawney, R. Bennett
With healthcare in a state of crisis due to unsustainable cost increases, lack of patient focus, and low information transparency, a need exists for measuring healthcare performance. Electronic medical records (EMRs) are a gateway to improved healthcare where a potential exists for a more thorough assessment of facility health, depicting financial and quality improvements in the health system. Our research focused on measuring aspects of EMR and system health by taking a multidimensional approach from an unbiased standpoint. Unlike most current assessments, an administrative point of view that only focuses on bottom-line improvements, our research produced three assessment tools that are unconstrained by financial metrics or specific stakeholder point of view. These tools include a hierarchical holographic model (HHM) of the broad universe of healthcare, guiding mission statements, and an information transparency matrix for classifying data availability. Combined, these provide a multidimensional framework for improving the assessment of healthcare.
{"title":"Electronic medical records: a multidimensional analysis","authors":"T. Boudreau, M. Davis, L. Déléry, J. Korbich, S. Lambert, E. Vogel, B. Tawney, R. Bennett","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193281","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193281","url":null,"abstract":"With healthcare in a state of crisis due to unsustainable cost increases, lack of patient focus, and low information transparency, a need exists for measuring healthcare performance. Electronic medical records (EMRs) are a gateway to improved healthcare where a potential exists for a more thorough assessment of facility health, depicting financial and quality improvements in the health system. Our research focused on measuring aspects of EMR and system health by taking a multidimensional approach from an unbiased standpoint. Unlike most current assessments, an administrative point of view that only focuses on bottom-line improvements, our research produced three assessment tools that are unconstrained by financial metrics or specific stakeholder point of view. These tools include a hierarchical holographic model (HHM) of the broad universe of healthcare, guiding mission statements, and an information transparency matrix for classifying data availability. Combined, these provide a multidimensional framework for improving the assessment of healthcare.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126522699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193276
J. Fonnan, A. Hitching, T. Reinold, E. Turner, M. Vrabel, M. McGinnis
Technological developments and requirements in a world of rapidly changing innovations and warfare dictate a high level of need for new equipment. The Defense Acquisition System is the management process by which the Department of Defense provides effective, affordable, and timely systems to the users to satisfy capability needs. Currently, this system is managed by DOD Directive 5000.1, entitled the Defense Acquisition System and DOD Instruction 5000.2, Operation of the Defense Acquisition System - which is constantly criticized for its slow, confusing, and bureaucratic nature. For this reason, this paper analyzes different systems engineering processes, and compare them to the current acquisition process, in order to improve the Defense Acquisition System.
{"title":"Integration of systems engineering best practices with DOD acquisition practices","authors":"J. Fonnan, A. Hitching, T. Reinold, E. Turner, M. Vrabel, M. McGinnis","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193276","url":null,"abstract":"Technological developments and requirements in a world of rapidly changing innovations and warfare dictate a high level of need for new equipment. The Defense Acquisition System is the management process by which the Department of Defense provides effective, affordable, and timely systems to the users to satisfy capability needs. Currently, this system is managed by DOD Directive 5000.1, entitled the Defense Acquisition System and DOD Instruction 5000.2, Operation of the Defense Acquisition System - which is constantly criticized for its slow, confusing, and bureaucratic nature. For this reason, this paper analyzes different systems engineering processes, and compare them to the current acquisition process, in order to improve the Defense Acquisition System.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122667996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2005-04-29DOI: 10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193261
W. Stout, B. Tawney
In complex systems it is difficult to discern the effects of interactions among component parts. Analysts can use Microsoft Excel for a preliminary assessment of internal systems dynamics. Often, in the hospital environment early data identification surfaces as rate estimates - admits per hour versus discharges per hour. For example, management may wish to assess capability to accommodate patients discharged from the emergency department for subsequent admission to the department of medicine (DOM) as well as demands on DOM bed capacity from other sources. This paper explores conceptual development and practical application of the spreadsheet model. Particular features include: constructing lookup tables by hour of day containing estimates of minimum and maximum rates, using the randbetween function to randomly select model inputs from a uniform distribution, developing frequency distributions to assist in output interpretation, illustrating conditional formatting, output graphing, etc. One can observe multiple samples of hourly patient fluctuations based on unit open beds and midnight census. Number of patients waiting can be shown at varying levels of system utilization. As utilization approaches approximately eighty percent, patient waiting time increases disproportionately. The spreadsheet model is a dynamic, visual illustration of how variation in individual process times can affect total process capability. Its use is primarily intended as a teaching tool for those new to simulation modeling.
{"title":"An Excel forecasting model to aid in decision making that affects hospital resource/bed utilization - hospital capability to admit emergency room patients","authors":"W. Stout, B. Tawney","doi":"10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193261","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/SIEDS.2005.193261","url":null,"abstract":"In complex systems it is difficult to discern the effects of interactions among component parts. Analysts can use Microsoft Excel for a preliminary assessment of internal systems dynamics. Often, in the hospital environment early data identification surfaces as rate estimates - admits per hour versus discharges per hour. For example, management may wish to assess capability to accommodate patients discharged from the emergency department for subsequent admission to the department of medicine (DOM) as well as demands on DOM bed capacity from other sources. This paper explores conceptual development and practical application of the spreadsheet model. Particular features include: constructing lookup tables by hour of day containing estimates of minimum and maximum rates, using the randbetween function to randomly select model inputs from a uniform distribution, developing frequency distributions to assist in output interpretation, illustrating conditional formatting, output graphing, etc. One can observe multiple samples of hourly patient fluctuations based on unit open beds and midnight census. Number of patients waiting can be shown at varying levels of system utilization. As utilization approaches approximately eighty percent, patient waiting time increases disproportionately. The spreadsheet model is a dynamic, visual illustration of how variation in individual process times can affect total process capability. Its use is primarily intended as a teaching tool for those new to simulation modeling.","PeriodicalId":317634,"journal":{"name":"2005 IEEE Design Symposium, Systems and Information Engineering","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114865995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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