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Restricciones a motocicletas y sus efectos sobre el crimen en Colombia (Motorcycle Restrictions and Their Effects on Crime in Colombia) 哥伦比亚摩托车限制及其对犯罪的影响(摩托车限制及其对哥伦比亚犯罪的影响)
Pub Date : 2020-07-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3659686
E. Martínez-González, Michael Weintraub, Leonardo Bonilla
Aunque las restricciones a motocicletas han sido adoptadas en mas de 25 ciudades en Colombia para reducir el crimen, no existe evidencia empirica que demuestre su efectividad. Este documento evalua el impacto de seis de estas medidas. Para identificar el efecto causal de las politicas, estimamos modelos de diferencia-en-diferencias que explotan la variacion espacial y temporal de las restricciones usando datos georeferenciados de crimen. No encontramos grandes efectos de estas medidas, ni efectos duraderos, sobre el delito. Dado los costos de vigilar su cumplimiento y los costos que se imponen sobre la ciudadania, las autoridades locales deberian buscar otras alternativas de politica publica en materia de seguridad.
尽管哥伦比亚超过25个城市已经采取了摩托车限制措施来减少犯罪,但没有经验证据证明其有效性。本文件评估了其中六项措施的影响。为了确定政策的因果效应,我们估计了差异中的差异模型,利用地理参考犯罪数据利用约束的时空变化。我们发现这些措施对犯罪没有重大影响,也没有持久的影响。考虑到执法的成本和公民的成本,地方当局应该寻求其他公共安全政策的替代方案。
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引用次数: 0
Remarkable Variability in SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies across Brazilian Regions: Report on Two Successive Nationwide Serological Household Surveys 巴西各地区SARS-CoV-2抗体的显著差异:两次连续全国血清学家庭调查报告
Pub Date : 2020-06-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3640428
P. Hallal, F. Hartwig, Bernardo Lessa Horta, M. Silveira, C. Struchiner, Luís Paulo Vidaleti, Nelson Arns Neumann, L. Pellanda, O. Dellagostin, M. Burattini, A. Menezes, F. Barros, A. Barros, C. Victora
Background: Population based data on COVID-19 are essential for guiding public policies. There are few such studies, particularly from low or middle-income countries. Brazil is currently a hotspot for COVID-19 globally. Methods: We report on two waves of seroprevalence surveys relying upon on household probabilistic samples of 133 large sentinel cities in all Brazilian states, including 25,025 participants in the first wave (May 14-21) and 31,165 in the second wave (June 4-7). Presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 was assessed using a lateral flow point-of-care test. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted for test’s sensitivity and specificity. Results: For the 83 cities with sample sizes of 200 or more tests in both phases, the pooled seroprevalence increased from 1.9% (95% CI 1.7%;2.1%) to 3.1% (2.8%;3.4%) over the 3-week period. City-level prevalence ranged from 0.0% to 25.4% in both phases. Eleven of the 16 cities with prevalence above 2.0% in the first wave were located in a stretch along the Amazon river in the Northern region; in the second wave, there were 34 cities with prevalence above 2%, which included the same 11 Amazon cities as well as 14 from the Northeast region, where prevalence is increasing rapidly. Prevalence levels were markedly lower in the South and Centre-West regions, and intermediate in the Southeast, where the highest level was found in Rio de Janeiro at 7.5% (4.2%;12.2%) in the second wave. In the second round, prevalence was similar in men and women, but higher levels were observed for subjects aged 20-59 years, and for those living in crowded conditions. Indigenous people had prevalence levels 6.4% (4.1%;9,4%) compared to 1.4% (1.2%;1.7%) among whites. Prevalence in the poorest socioeconomic quintile was 3.7% (3.2%;4.3%) compared to 1.7% (1.4%;2.2%) in the wealthiest quintile. Interpretation: Our results suggest that pandemic is highly heterogenous, with rapid escalation in Brazil’s North and Northeast, and slow progression in the South and Center-West regions. Prevalence is strongly associated with indigenous ancestry and low socioeconomic position.
背景:基于人口的COVID-19数据对于指导公共政策至关重要。很少有这样的研究,特别是来自低收入或中等收入国家的研究。巴西目前是全球COVID-19的热点地区。方法:我们报告了两波血清患病率调查,依赖于巴西所有州133个大型哨点城市的家庭概率样本,包括第一波(5月14日至21日)的25,025名参与者和第二波(6月4日至7日)的31,165名参与者。使用横向流动护理点测试评估SARS-CoV-2抗体的存在。根据测试的敏感性和特异性调整血清阳性率估计值。结果:在两阶段样本量为200例及以上的83个城市中,在3周期间,总血清阳性率从1.9%(95%置信区间1.7%;2.1%)上升至3.1%(2.8%;3.4%)。在这两个阶段,城市一级的患病率为0.0%至25.4%。第一波流行率在2.0%以上的16个城市中,有11个位于北部地区亚马孙河沿岸;在第二波中,有34个城市的患病率超过2%,其中包括同样的11个亚马逊城市以及14个来自东北地区的城市,其患病率正在迅速上升。南部和中西部地区的患病率明显较低,东南部处于中等水平,其中里约热内卢的患病率最高,在第二波中为7.5%(4.2%;12.2%)。在第二轮中,男性和女性的患病率相似,但在20-59岁的受试者和生活在拥挤条件下的受试者中观察到更高的水平。土著人的患病率为6.4%(4.1%;9.4%),而白人的患病率为1.4%(1.2%;1.7%)。最贫穷的社会经济五分之一的患病率为3.7%(3.2%;4.3%),而最富裕的五分之一的患病率为1.7%(1.4%;2.2%)。解释:我们的结果表明,大流行具有高度异质性,在巴西北部和东北部迅速升级,而在南部和中西部地区进展缓慢。患病率与土著血统和低社会经济地位密切相关。
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引用次数: 4
El Conflicto Colombia – Perú 1932 1933, Y El Inicio De La Política De Industrialización En Colombia (Colombian-Peruvian Conflict in the Amazon Region.1932–1933. Start of Government Industrialization Oriented Policy) 1932 - 1933年哥伦比亚-秘鲁冲突,以及哥伦比亚工业化政策的开始(亚马逊地区的哥伦比亚-秘鲁冲突,1932 - 1933)。《政府工业化政策启动》
Pub Date : 2020-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3627207
José Pérez-Toro
Spanish abstract: El conflicto con Peru conocido como la guerra Colombo-Peruana ocurrio entre los anos 1932 y 1933, y se llevo a cabo en la cuenca del rio Putumayo y la ciudad de Leticia, ubicada en la antigua comisaria colombiana en el rio Amazonas. El punto de discordia puede decir que fueron las clausulas del Tratado Lozano-Salomon, como en el acuerdo que los peruanos pretendian anexionar el sur de la zona de la Ribera del Rio Putumayo y parte de su territorio, encerrando geograficamente al Ecuador, mientras que Colombia cedio parte de su territorio y solo permanecio con la franja del trapecio amazonico. El pais supo aprovechar las circunstancias del conflicto con Peru para revivir el sentimiento de nacionalismo y capitalizar en el Estado esta situacion de crisis de relaciones internacionales para justificar la introduccion de mecanismos de financiamiento interno que apoye firmemente el creciente proceso de industrializacion del pais. El documento explora en profundidad estas acciones tomadas por la clase de industriales emergentes para ocupar un lugar importante en el creciente mercado nacional con base en esta politica de capitalizacion. English abstract: The conflict with Peru known as Colombo-Peruvian war occurred between the years of 1932 and 1933, and was carried out in the basin of the Putumayo River and the city of Leticia, located in the former Colombian police station in the Amazon River. The point of contention can say that they were the clauses of the Treaty Lozano-Salomon, as in the accord Peruvians intended to annex the South of the Putumayo River Bank area and some of its territory, enclosing geographically to Ecuador, while Colombia ceded part of its territory and only remained with the strip of the Amazonian trapezium. The country knew how to take advantage of the circumstances of the conflict with Peru to relive the feeling of nationalism and capitalize on the State this situation of crisis of international relations to justify the introduction of internal financing mechanisms that strongly supported the rising process of the industrialization of the country. The paper explores in depth these actions taken by emerging industrialist’s class to occupy an important place in the enlarging national market with base in this capitalization policy.
与秘鲁的冲突被称为哥伦比亚-秘鲁战争,发生在1932年至1933年之间,发生在普图马约河流域和莱蒂西亚市,莱蒂西亚市位于亚马逊河上的前哥伦比亚策展人。焦点可以被条约clausulas Lozano-Salomon说,作为协议的秘鲁人pretendian附件区南对河的西岸Putumayo和占领其部分领土,厄瓜多尔geograficamente,而哥伦比亚cedio占领其部分领土只permanecio与梯形地带amazonico。这个国家被称为利用与秘鲁的冲突情况的重温民族主义意识,并利用危机在这种情况下,国际关系证明他们的简介国内融资机制,大力支持国家日益industrializacion进程。本文深入探讨了新兴产业阶级采取的这些行动,以这种资本化政策为基础,在不断增长的国内市场占据重要地位。《与秘鲁的冲突:哥伦比亚-秘鲁战争》(The conflict of colombia -Peru war, 1932 - 1933),发生在普图马约河流域和莱蒂西亚市,位于亚马逊河上的前哥伦比亚警察站。The point of contention can say that they是The clauses条约Lozano-Salomon, as in The accord这部有关附件The South of The Putumayo河Bank area and some of its territory, enclosing geographically to厄瓜多尔,而哥伦比亚ceded part of its territory and only remained with The脱衣舞of The Amazonian trapezium。The country * how to take advantage of The情况of The conflict with Peru to relive The感觉of nationalism and 67 capitalize on The State of crisis of international relations to justify The introduction of内部融资机制,强烈支持的The rising process of The工业化of The country。本文以这种资本化政策为基础,深入探讨了新兴工业家阶级为在扩大的全国市场中占据重要地位而采取的这些行动。
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引用次数: 0
Bank Risk Determinants in Latin America 拉丁美洲银行风险决定因素
Pub Date : 2020-05-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3606491
Mariña Martínez-Malvar, Laura Baselga-Pascual
Systemic Banking crises are a recurrent phenomenon that affects society, and there is a need for a better understanding of the risk factors to support prudential regulation and reduce unnecessary risk intake in the financial system. This paper examines the main bank risk determinants in Latin America. The period analysed covers the timespan from 1999 to 2013, including the systemic banking crisis episodes in Argentina (2001–2003) and Uruguay (2002–2005). We apply a new data-driven comparable methodology to classify and select commercial banks from the sample. We study bank risk proxied by the Z-score. We use the system-GMM estimator as our main empirical analysis method. According to our results, well capitalized, liquid, and traditional commercial banks are less risky. We perform robustness tests by applying OLS, and the results resemble our original model.
系统性银行危机是一种影响社会的经常性现象,有必要更好地了解风险因素,以支持审慎监管,减少金融体系中不必要的风险摄入。本文考察了拉丁美洲银行风险的主要决定因素。所分析的时间段为1999年至2013年,包括阿根廷(2001年至2003年)和乌拉圭(2002年至2005年)的系统性银行危机。我们采用一种新的数据驱动的比较方法从样本中对商业银行进行分类和选择。我们用z分数来研究银行风险。我们使用系统- gmm估计量作为我们的主要实证分析方法。根据我们的研究结果,资本充足、流动性好的传统商业银行风险较小。我们通过应用OLS进行稳健性检验,结果与我们的原始模型相似。
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引用次数: 7
Unemployment Dynamics and Informality in Small Open Economies 小型开放经济体的失业动态与非正式性
Pub Date : 2020-05-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3598597
Jaroslav Horvath, Guanyi Yang
Despite the typically more pronounced aggregate fluctuations in emerging market economies (EMEs), this paper documents that EMEs exhibit a lower relative volatility and countercyclicality of unemployment rate than small open advanced economies. We link these differences to the larger informal economy in EMEs. We build a small-open-economy model that combines a formal sector featuring labor search frictions with a frictionless informal sector. A larger informal sector amplifies the impact of productivity shocks on formal output, consumption, and employment, while dampening their impact on unemployment. Varying the degree of informality explains a significant fraction of differences in unemployment dynamics across small open economies.
尽管新兴市场经济体(eme)的总体波动通常更为明显,但本文证明,与小型开放的发达经济体相比,新兴市场经济体表现出更低的相对波动性和反周期性失业率。我们将这些差异与eme中更大的非正规经济联系起来。我们建立了一个小型开放经济模型,将具有劳动力寻找摩擦的正式部门与无摩擦的非正式部门相结合。一个更大的非正式部门放大了生产率冲击对正式产出、消费和就业的影响,同时抑制了它们对失业的影响。非正式程度的不同解释了小型开放经济体之间失业动态差异的很大一部分。
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引用次数: 2
Optimal Financial Inclusion 最优普惠金融
Pub Date : 2020-03-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3551463
Peterson K. Ozili
This article reports the conditions for optimality in financial inclusion. The optimal level of financial inclusion is achieved when basic financial services are provided to members of the population at a price that is affordable and that price is also economically sufficient to encourage providers of financial services to provide such financial services on a continual basis. Any level of financial inclusion that does not meet these conditions is sub-optimal. The consequence of sub-optimal levels of financial inclusion are reported and I show that maintaining a sub-optimal level of financial inclusion – which is common in many countries – is incentive-inefficient both for users and suppliers of basic financial services.
本文报告了普惠金融的最优条件。当以可负担的价格向人口成员提供基本金融服务,并且在经济上也足以鼓励金融服务提供者持续提供此类金融服务时,才能实现最优的普惠金融水平。任何不满足这些条件的普惠金融水平都是次优的。我报告了次优普惠金融水平的后果,并表明维持次优普惠金融水平——这在许多国家都很常见——对基本金融服务的用户和提供者来说都是缺乏激励的。
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引用次数: 7
Is Fish Brain Food or Brain Poison? Sea Surface Temperature, Methyl-Mercury and Child Cognitive Development 鱼是健脑食品还是脑毒药?海洋表面温度、甲基汞与儿童认知发展
Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3570110
M. Rosenzweig, Rafael J. Santos
We exploit variation in the composition of local fish catches around the time of birth using administrative and census data on adult cognitive test scores, schooling attainment, and occupation among coastal populations in Colombia to estimate the causal effects of early-life consumption of methylmercury (MeHg) and DHA, elements contained in fish, on cognitive development. Using an IV strategy based on an equilibrium model of fish supply that exploits time-series variation in oceanic SST anomalies on both coasts of Colombia from 1950 to 2014 as instruments, we find that net of cohort and municipality fixed effects increases in high-(low-)MeHg fish catches around a cohort’s birth negatively (positively) affect the cohort’s verbal and math test scores upon exiting high school and their likelihood of continuing their schooling, while increasing (decreasing) the likelihood the cohort is disproportionally represented in manual-labor occupations.
我们利用哥伦比亚沿海人口中有关成人认知测试分数、受教育程度和职业的行政和人口普查数据,利用出生前后当地鱼类捕捞组成的变化,来估计早期食用甲基汞(MeHg)和DHA(鱼类中所含的元素)对认知发展的因果影响。使用基于鱼类供给均衡模型的IV策略(利用1950年至2014年哥伦比亚两海岸海洋海温异常的时间序列变化作为工具),我们发现群体和市政固定效应的净增加在群体出生前后高(低)MeHg鱼捕鱼量对群体高中毕业时的语言和数学考试成绩以及他们继续上学的可能性产生负(正)影响。虽然增加(减少)的可能性队列是不成比例地代表在体力劳动职业。
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引用次数: 2
Development and Underperformance in the Barbados Economy, 1946-2018 1946-2018年巴巴多斯经济的发展与表现不佳
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3568543
Delisle Worrell
In the years since World War II Barbados was transformed from a desperately poor society, with only a tiny middle class, to today's economy of mostly middle-income earners, which is ranked by the UNDP among the highest level of human development globally. In this chapter we discover that the transformation took place, for the most part, in the 1950s and 1960s. Thereafter, economic development gains were modest, and the economy has performed well below its economic potential. The chapter tells the story of the changeover from sugar to tourism as the mainstay of the economy, and the factors that affected investment and growth. The phases of growth, the pressures on the balance of payments and the economic crises that have occurred are analysed, and the impact of Government policies on growth and economic stability is explored in depth. The chapter concludes with thoughts on the way forward for Barbados and the Caribbean.
在第二次世界大战以来的几年里,巴巴多斯从一个极度贫穷的社会,只有很少的中产阶级,转变为今天的经济主要是中等收入者,被联合国开发计划署列为全球人类发展的最高水平之一。在本章中,我们发现这种转变主要发生在20世纪50年代和60年代。此后,经济发展收益不大,经济表现远远低于其经济潜力。本章讲述了从制糖业向旅游业转变为经济支柱的故事,以及影响投资和增长的因素。对增长阶段、国际收支压力和已发生的经济危机进行了分析,并深入探讨了政府政策对增长和经济稳定的影响。本章最后对巴巴多斯和加勒比地区的前进道路进行了思考。
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引用次数: 0
Inversión social privada y desarrollo local en Colombia. Estudio comparativo a partir de programas de empresas y fundaciones (Private Social Investment and Local Development in Colombia. A Comparative Study Based on Programs of Companies and Foundations) 哥伦比亚的私人社会投资和地方发展。基于公司和基金会项目的比较研究(哥伦比亚的私人社会投资和地方发展)。基于公司方案和基金会的比较研究)
Pub Date : 2019-12-12 DOI: 10.18601/16578651.n26.07
María Claudia Romero Amaya, Óscar Iván Pérez Hoyos
The aim of the article is to determine the way in which private social investment – psi is linked with local development, based on the comparative analysis of 37 programs of compa­nies and foundations in Colombia, within the framework of their strategies of social respon­sibility and sustainability, and two categories: dimensions of local development (economic, sociocultural, governance and environmen­tal), and characteristics of programs (location and period). The article finds that the psi is not linked integrally with local development, because it shows patrons of convergence in aspects related with economic and sociocul­tural dimensions and patrons of divergence associated with governance and the environ­ment. In addition, the psi does not have the capacity to make significant contributions to reduce territorial gaps, since it concentrates in departments and urban sectors with the best socio-economic indicators.
本文的目的是确定私人社会投资- psi与地方发展的联系方式,基于对哥伦比亚公司和基金会的37个项目的比较分析,在其社会责任和可持续性战略的框架内,以及两个类别:地方发展的维度(经济,社会文化,治理和环境)和项目的特征(地点和时期)。文章发现,psi与地方发展没有整体联系,因为它显示了与经济和社会文化维度相关的趋同方面的赞助人,以及与治理和环境相关的分歧方面的赞助人。此外,psi没有能力为缩小地区差距作出重大贡献,因为它集中在社会经济指标最好的省和城市部门。
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引用次数: 0
La actividad carbonífera en Colombia: un análisis a partir de los instrumentos de ordenamiento territorial y planificación socioeconómica (Coal Mining Activity in Colombia: An Analysis From Instruments of Socioeconomic Development and Territorial Planning) 本研究的目的是分析哥伦比亚的采煤活动:社会经济发展和领土规划工具的分析。
Pub Date : 2019-12-12 DOI: 10.18601/16578651.n26.06
Johann Dilak Julio Estrada, Sandra Milena Bulla Ortega, Julio César Rojo Ospina
El presente articulo analiza el estado de la produccion minera de carbon en Colombia a partir de la vocacion presente en los muni­cipios donde dicha actividad se desarrolla. En la ultima decada, el desarrollo de la actividad minera en Colombia ha tenido un incremento positivo, destacandose como el quinto mayor productor y exportador de carbon en el mun­do; sin embargo, este desarrollo no guarda una estrecha relacion con los indicadores sociales de los municipios que soportan la actividad. La investigacion intenta establecer como el re­conocimiento de la actividad minera por parte de los instrumentos de desarrollo socioecono­mico y de planeacion territorial es una variable que puede explicar este fenomeno. El abordaje metodologico consistio en establecer relaciones entre el volumen de la produccion y la presen­cia o no de directrices dentro de los instrumen­tos de planeacion que permitiesen observar el reconocimiento de la vocacion minera dentro de los territorios y como esta podria apuntar a facilitar el desarrollo de la actividad. Para adelantar dicho proposito se construyo una tipologia basada en las caracteristicas de la produccion en la que se sistematizo y analizo la informacion en cuatro categorias. El analisis permitio identificar resultados no parametricos sobre la vocacion de los territorios y el recono­cimiento de la actividad minera como pilar de la actividad economica del municipio, la cual se puede explicar a partir del grado de impor­tancia y mencion que dicha actividad registra en la agenda de planeacion municipal.
本文分析了哥伦比亚煤炭开采的现状,从该活动发展的城市的职业。在过去十年中,哥伦比亚矿业活动的发展有了积极的增长,成为世界第五大碳生产国和出口国;然而,这一发展与支持这一活动的城市的社会指标没有密切关系。调查试图建立采矿活动如re-conocimiento socioecono-mico发展文书,并为planeacion领土是一个变量可以解释这个现象。登机metodologico consistio之间建立联系的量和presen-cia与否的准则instrumen-tos内planeacion能够守承认领土内开采得到了一个职业,这样可以针对促进发展活动。为该目的,构建基于caracteristicas tipologia的在四个categorias sistematizo和测试的信息。分析permitio鉴定结果并不得到了一个职业和领土问题parametricos recono-cimiento采矿活动作为支柱活动economica,后者可以解释市impor-tancia程度起集体嘉奖这项活动记录在市政planeacion议程。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)
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