Pub Date : 2017-10-01DOI: 10.4067/S0718-88702017000200039
J. Cabrera, Alejandro Cid
En el presente estudio, observamos los resultados de una politica de asignacion masiva de derechos de usufructo a los cuidacoches, personas que desempenan –en la informalidad– tareas de vigilancia de vehiculos aparcados en las calles. Sorprendentemente, a pesar del costo reducido y los considerables beneficios de adquirir legalmente el derecho de usufructo sobre la cuadra, la mitad de los potenciales beneficiarios han rechazado la suscripcion a ese programa. Con el fin de entender este mercado y la movilidad entre el sector formal e informal, construimos una base de datos inedita que contiene informacion economica y sociodemografica de los cuidacoches. Dentro de los resultados encontrados, se destacan cuatro observaciones: la heterogeneidad en las razones de entrada al sector informal de cuidacoches; la proteccion del derecho de usufructo sobre la cuadra como el beneficio principal percibido de pasarse al sector formal; la aspiracion a cambiar de trabajo de la inmensa mayoria; la capacidad de ahorro reducida. El estudio concluye con lineas para la elaboracion de una estrategia de identificacion causal que permita medir el posible impacto de la forma-3 lizacion como cuidacoches (i.e., obtener el permiso de la autoridad departamental) en la movilidad ascendente en el mercado laboral.
{"title":"Asignación de Derechos de Usufructo en Mercados Informales: Evidencia desde las Calles (Allocation of Usufruct Rights in Informal Markets: Evidence from the Streets)","authors":"J. Cabrera, Alejandro Cid","doi":"10.4067/S0718-88702017000200039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-88702017000200039","url":null,"abstract":"En el presente estudio, observamos los resultados de una politica de asignacion masiva de derechos de usufructo a los cuidacoches, personas que desempenan –en la informalidad– tareas de vigilancia de vehiculos aparcados en las calles. Sorprendentemente, a pesar del costo reducido y los considerables beneficios de adquirir legalmente el derecho de usufructo sobre la cuadra, la mitad de los potenciales beneficiarios han rechazado la suscripcion a ese programa. Con el fin de entender este mercado y la movilidad entre el sector formal e informal, construimos una base de datos inedita que contiene informacion economica y sociodemografica de los cuidacoches. Dentro de los resultados encontrados, se destacan cuatro observaciones: la heterogeneidad en las razones de entrada al sector informal de cuidacoches; la proteccion del derecho de usufructo sobre la cuadra como el beneficio principal percibido de pasarse al sector formal; la aspiracion a cambiar de trabajo de la inmensa mayoria; la capacidad de ahorro reducida. El estudio concluye con lineas para la elaboracion de una estrategia de identificacion causal que permita medir el posible impacto de la forma-3 lizacion como cuidacoches (i.e., obtener el permiso de la autoridad departamental) en la movilidad ascendente en el mercado laboral.","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121185115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Montenegro, Jorge Llano, Karim Fajury, M. García
Spanish Abstract: Este articulo argumenta que, en paises emergentes, como Colombia, la combinacion de la transicion demografica con una alta informalidad del mercado laboral hace inviable la existencia de un regimen de pensiones de reparto. En teoria, un pais como Colombia tiene aun una poblacion joven y esta, por lo tanto, “gozando” del llamado Bono o Dividendo Demografico. En estas condiciones, cuenta con una relacion entre la poblacion economicamente activa y los adultos en edad de retiro relativamente elevada, lo que deberia permitir que los trabajadores activos puedan durante algun tiempo mas financiar con sus cotizaciones las pensiones de los adultos mayores. En Colombia, dicha relacion es de casi siete trabajadores activos por cada adulto mayor de 65 anos. Esta elevada relacion es lo que permite la llamada “solidaridad intergeneracional”. Pero en la realidad, debido a la informalidad, solo hay dos trabajadores formales que cotizan a la seguridad social en pensiones por cada adulto mayor. En esas condiciones, aun si se adoptasen a la brevedad todas las medidas necesarias para incrementar radicalmente la formalidad laboral, cuando dichas medidas tuviesen efecto alguno en Colombia, la relacion entre activos y adultos mayores habra caido significativamente y, muy seguramente, Colombia habra ya perdido su dividendo demografico. Como consecuencia, los jovenes, que hoy son solidarios con los mayores, no tendran quienes sean solidarios con ellos al llegar al retiro laboral. English Abstract: This article argues that in emergent countries, such as Colombia, the combination of the demographic transition process with the country's high levels of labor market informality makes pay-as-you-go pension systems unviable. In theory, this country's population is still relatively young and as a consequence is enjoying the so-called demographic dividend. Given its demographic composition, Colombia still has a high ratio between the economically active population and those 65 years old and more, which in principle would permit that workers’ contributions finance the pensions of the retired. Such ratio, which is currently close to seven, is what makes it possible the so-called intergenerational solidarity of the young with the elders. Unfortunately, such solidarity is neither sustainable in the future nor feasible even in the present should a country expect reasonable levels of pension coverage. For the ratio of workers to elders will fall to four around 2040 and to two around the year 2060. But what is really critical for a PAYG system is that Colombia’s labor market informality reduces such relation from seven to two today. In those circumstances, even if strong measures were taken now to reduce labor market informality, given the time lag required for them to formalize the labor market, the aging of the population would hardly increase the active workers to the elder ratio. This means that Colombia would have likely lost the demographic dividend. Consequentl
{"title":"La Inviabilidad De Los Regímenes De Pensiones De Reparto En Países Que Aún Gozan Del Dividendo Poblacional: El Caso De Colombia (Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems Unviability in Countries that Enjoy the Demographic Dividend: The Case of Colombia)","authors":"S. Montenegro, Jorge Llano, Karim Fajury, M. García","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3035950","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3035950","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este articulo argumenta que, en paises emergentes, como Colombia, la combinacion de la transicion demografica con una alta informalidad del mercado laboral hace inviable la existencia de un regimen de pensiones de reparto. En teoria, un pais como Colombia tiene aun una poblacion joven y esta, por lo tanto, “gozando” del llamado Bono o Dividendo Demografico. En estas condiciones, cuenta con una relacion entre la poblacion economicamente activa y los adultos en edad de retiro relativamente elevada, lo que deberia permitir que los trabajadores activos puedan durante algun tiempo mas financiar con sus cotizaciones las pensiones de los adultos mayores. En Colombia, dicha relacion es de casi siete trabajadores activos por cada adulto mayor de 65 anos. Esta elevada relacion es lo que permite la llamada “solidaridad intergeneracional”. Pero en la realidad, debido a la informalidad, solo hay dos trabajadores formales que cotizan a la seguridad social en pensiones por cada adulto mayor. En esas condiciones, aun si se adoptasen a la brevedad todas las medidas necesarias para incrementar radicalmente la formalidad laboral, cuando dichas medidas tuviesen efecto alguno en Colombia, la relacion entre activos y adultos mayores habra caido significativamente y, muy seguramente, Colombia habra ya perdido su dividendo demografico. Como consecuencia, los jovenes, que hoy son solidarios con los mayores, no tendran quienes sean solidarios con ellos al llegar al retiro laboral. \u0000English Abstract: This article argues that in emergent countries, such as Colombia, the combination of the demographic transition process with the country's high levels of labor market informality makes pay-as-you-go pension systems unviable. In theory, this country's population is still relatively young and as a consequence is enjoying the so-called demographic dividend. Given its demographic composition, Colombia still has a high ratio between the economically active population and those 65 years old and more, which in principle would permit that workers’ contributions finance the pensions of the retired. Such ratio, which is currently close to seven, is what makes it possible the so-called intergenerational solidarity of the young with the elders. Unfortunately, such solidarity is neither sustainable in the future nor feasible even in the present should a country expect reasonable levels of pension coverage. For the ratio of workers to elders will fall to four around 2040 and to two around the year 2060. But what is really critical for a PAYG system is that Colombia’s labor market informality reduces such relation from seven to two today. In those circumstances, even if strong measures were taken now to reduce labor market informality, given the time lag required for them to formalize the labor market, the aging of the population would hardly increase the active workers to the elder ratio. This means that Colombia would have likely lost the demographic dividend. Consequentl","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"111 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123687399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The present article analyzes fiscal privileges in Guatemala from a taxation point of view, identifying the cost that they incur through the tax expenditure methodology. The article also discusses the historical situation of Guatemala concerning taxes and its consequence for the social situation and its relation. Therefore, the conclusion of this article is that fiscal privileges are politics aimed at minorities that cost more to the society than the benefits they have in Guatemala.
{"title":"The Negotiation and Effects of Fiscal Privileges in Guatemala","authors":"M. Garita","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2970609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2970609","url":null,"abstract":"The present article analyzes fiscal privileges in Guatemala from a taxation point of view, identifying the cost that they incur through the tax expenditure methodology. The article also discusses the historical situation of Guatemala concerning taxes and its consequence for the social situation and its relation. Therefore, the conclusion of this article is that fiscal privileges are politics aimed at minorities that cost more to the society than the benefits they have in Guatemala.","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"229 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132622604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Sánchez-Rodríguez, Julio-César Cepeda-Ladino, Ricardo Sánchez-Cárcamo
Spanish Abstract: El Modelo Alternativo de Inclusion e Innovacion Productiva (MAIIP) es un proyecto interdisciplinar de desarrollo en el territorio, el cual ha sido liderado por la Universidad Piloto de Colombia e implementado en Viota y Girardot (Cundinamarca). El articulo propone que la principal contribucion del MAIIP es incentivar la innovacion social a partir de la integracion productiva de las comunidades rurales y urbanas en ambos municipios. El MAIIP permite establecer la naturaleza de los problemas sociales particulares de la comunidad en terminos sociologicos y economicos; tambien, mejora la competitividad mediante el encadenamiento productivo y la asociatividad; ademas, es una iniciativa de construccion de paz que favorece el desarrollo rural. English Abstract: The Alternative Model of Productive Inclusion and Innovation (AMPII) is an interdisciplinary project of territorial development which has been supported by Universidad Piloto de Colombia and has been implemented in the towns of Viota and Girardot (Department of Cundinamarca). The article purposes that the main contribution of AMPII is to encourage social innovation from productive integration between rural and urban communities in both towns. AMPII allows to establish the nature of particular social problems from the community in sociological and economic terms; also, it improves competitiveness through productive chain and associativity; additionally, it is a peace-building initiative that favors rural development.
{"title":"Modelo alternativo de inclusión e innovación productiva en Viotá y Girardot (Cundinamarca, Colombia) (Alternative model of productive inclusion and innovation in Viota and Girardot, Cundinamarca, Colombia)","authors":"D. Sánchez-Rodríguez, Julio-César Cepeda-Ladino, Ricardo Sánchez-Cárcamo","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2994978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2994978","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: El Modelo Alternativo de Inclusion e Innovacion Productiva (MAIIP) es un proyecto interdisciplinar de desarrollo en el territorio, el cual ha sido liderado por la Universidad Piloto de Colombia e implementado en Viota y Girardot (Cundinamarca). El articulo propone que la principal contribucion del MAIIP es incentivar la innovacion social a partir de la integracion productiva de las comunidades rurales y urbanas en ambos municipios. El MAIIP permite establecer la naturaleza de los problemas sociales particulares de la comunidad en terminos sociologicos y economicos; tambien, mejora la competitividad mediante el encadenamiento productivo y la asociatividad; ademas, es una iniciativa de construccion de paz que favorece el desarrollo rural. \u0000 \u0000English Abstract: The Alternative Model of Productive Inclusion and Innovation (AMPII) is an interdisciplinary project of territorial development which has been supported by Universidad Piloto de Colombia and has been implemented in the towns of Viota and Girardot (Department of Cundinamarca). The article purposes that the main contribution of AMPII is to encourage social innovation from productive integration between rural and urban communities in both towns. AMPII allows to establish the nature of particular social problems from the community in sociological and economic terms; also, it improves competitiveness through productive chain and associativity; additionally, it is a peace-building initiative that favors rural development.","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"685 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122702938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study the adjustment of Brazilian workers to rising import competition from China. I compare the impact of trade exposure based on workers’ initial industries, geographic regions, and occupations on long-term earnings and employment. Occupation-based exposure to this trade shock leads to the largest adjustment costs in terms of both earnings and employment. I show these adjustment costs are heterogeneous and depend on workers’ educational attainment and tenure at their initial employers. I disentangle the impact of trade on earnings at workers’ initial employers or industries versus the impact on earnings outside of these.
{"title":"Worker Adjustment to Trade Shocks: Where You Work or What You Do?","authors":"Felipe Benguria","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2904100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2904100","url":null,"abstract":"I study the adjustment of Brazilian workers to rising import competition from China. I compare the impact of trade exposure based on workers’ initial industries, geographic regions, and occupations on long-term earnings and employment. Occupation-based exposure to this trade shock leads to the largest adjustment costs in terms of both earnings and employment. I show these adjustment costs are heterogeneous and depend on workers’ educational attainment and tenure at their initial employers. I disentangle the impact of trade on earnings at workers’ initial employers or industries versus the impact on earnings outside of these.","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122907037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This is the first paper to analyze the effects of intense personal assistance on the compliance with labor regulation, within a population of deeply disadvantaged informal workers, using a field experiment. We randomly assign one-on-one assistance to these workers, and, within this treatment group, we randomly assign money to cover the cost of fulfilling the legal requirements to get a permit to work on the streets. One month after the intervention, we find that a worker who receives one-on-one assistance is three times more likely to comply with the legal documentation required by the government than a worker in the control group. We also find that a worker who receives both one-on-one assistance and cost coverage is four times more likely to comply with the legal requirements. The findings of this study shed light on strategies to help highly vulnerable workers to comply with labor regulations.
{"title":"The Effect of One-On-One Assistance on the Compliance with Labor Regulation. A Field Experiment in Extremely Vulnerable Settings","authors":"J. Cabrera, Alejandro Cid, Marianne Bernatzky","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2916285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2916285","url":null,"abstract":"This is the first paper to analyze the effects of intense personal assistance on the compliance with labor regulation, within a population of deeply disadvantaged informal workers, using a field experiment. We randomly assign one-on-one assistance to these workers, and, within this treatment group, we randomly assign money to cover the cost of fulfilling the legal requirements to get a permit to work on the streets. One month after the intervention, we find that a worker who receives one-on-one assistance is three times more likely to comply with the legal documentation required by the government than a worker in the control group. We also find that a worker who receives both one-on-one assistance and cost coverage is four times more likely to comply with the legal requirements. The findings of this study shed light on strategies to help highly vulnerable workers to comply with labor regulations.","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129864984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
During early childhood, children develop cognitive and socioemotional skills that predict success in multiple socioeconomic dimensions. A large part of the development of these skills depends on the child’s context during the first years of life and, in particular, on the quality of parental care. Grounded on recent literature in psychology and behavioral economics, we discuss a theoretical framework for understanding why some children receive adequate care, while others do not. Within this framework, we identify a determinant of the quality of parenting that has not yet been explored in-depth: the availability of parents’ mental resources, which are depleted by the subjective feeling of scarcity and the stress generated by adversities. Using cross-sectional data from a household survey in Colombia and administrative data on crime and violence, we find that a greater subjective feeling of scarcity (?=0.45, IC95%: [0.082, 0.979]) and greater exposure to violence (? =0.09, IC90%:[0.004, 0.182]) are associated with a lower likelihood that parents engage in stimulating activities with their children. At the same time, the results show that receiving information on childrearing is correlated with better parental practices (? =-0.48, IC95%:[-0.822, -0.136]).
{"title":"Parenting, Scarcity and Violence: Theory and Evidence for Colombia","authors":"Jorge Cuartas Ricaurte, Arturo Harker, Andrés Moya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2912482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2912482","url":null,"abstract":"During early childhood, children develop cognitive and socioemotional skills that predict success in multiple socioeconomic dimensions. A large part of the development of these skills depends on the child’s context during the first years of life and, in particular, on the quality of parental care. Grounded on recent literature in psychology and behavioral economics, we discuss a theoretical framework for understanding why some children receive adequate care, while others do not. Within this framework, we identify a determinant of the quality of parenting that has not yet been explored in-depth: the availability of parents’ mental resources, which are depleted by the subjective feeling of scarcity and the stress generated by adversities. Using cross-sectional data from a household survey in Colombia and administrative data on crime and violence, we find that a greater subjective feeling of scarcity (?=0.45, IC95%: [0.082, 0.979]) and greater exposure to violence (? =0.09, IC90%:[0.004, 0.182]) are associated with a lower likelihood that parents engage in stimulating activities with their children. At the same time, the results show that receiving information on childrearing is correlated with better parental practices (? =-0.48, IC95%:[-0.822, -0.136]).","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"81 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133092757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-12-01DOI: 10.5089/9781475563153.001.A001
Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru, Fan Zhang
This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital accumulation and TFP growth are accounting for most of this decline. Apart from Costa Rica, there are no indications of significant economic slack in 2015 in Central America. Looking forward, potential growth in most Central American economies is expected to continue at an average of 4 percent in the medium-term due to structural constraints to capital and employment growth, and low TFP growth. Increasing potential growth, thus, should be a policy priority and structural reforms must be directed at improving business conditions, product and labor markets, and enhancing the capacity for innovation.
{"title":"Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic","authors":"Roberto Garcia-Saltos, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru, Fan Zhang","doi":"10.5089/9781475563153.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475563153.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital accumulation and TFP growth are accounting for most of this decline. Apart from Costa Rica, there are no indications of significant economic slack in 2015 in Central America. Looking forward, potential growth in most Central American economies is expected to continue at an average of 4 percent in the medium-term due to structural constraints to capital and employment growth, and low TFP growth. Increasing potential growth, thus, should be a policy priority and structural reforms must be directed at improving business conditions, product and labor markets, and enhancing the capacity for innovation.","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125985118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper asks whether elite colleges help students outside of historically advantaged groups reach top positions in the economy. I combine administrative data on income and leadership teams at publicly traded firms with a regression discontinuity design based on admissions rules at elite business-focused degree programs in Chile. The 1.8 percent of college students admitted to these programs account for 41 percent of leadership positions and 39 percent of top 0.1 percent incomes. Admission raises the number of leadership positions students hold by 44 percent and their probability of attaining a top 0.1 percent income by 51 percent. However, these gains are driven by male applicants from high-tuition private high schools, with zero effects for female students or students from other school types with similar admissions test scores. Admissions effects are equal to 38 percent of the gap in rates of top attainment by gender and 54 percent of the gap by high school background for male students. A difference-in-differences analysis of the rates at which pairs of students lead the same firms suggests that peer ties formed between college classmates from similar backgrounds may play an important role in driving the observed effects. (JEL I23, I26, J16, O15)
{"title":"Elite Colleges and Upward Mobility to Top Jobs and Top Incomes","authors":"S. Zimmerman","doi":"10.1257/aer.20171019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20171019","url":null,"abstract":"This paper asks whether elite colleges help students outside of historically advantaged groups reach top positions in the economy. I combine administrative data on income and leadership teams at publicly traded firms with a regression discontinuity design based on admissions rules at elite business-focused degree programs in Chile. The 1.8 percent of college students admitted to these programs account for 41 percent of leadership positions and 39 percent of top 0.1 percent incomes. Admission raises the number of leadership positions students hold by 44 percent and their probability of attaining a top 0.1 percent income by 51 percent. However, these gains are driven by male applicants from high-tuition private high schools, with zero effects for female students or students from other school types with similar admissions test scores. Admissions effects are equal to 38 percent of the gap in rates of top attainment by gender and 54 percent of the gap by high school background for male students. A difference-in-differences analysis of the rates at which pairs of students lead the same firms suggests that peer ties formed between college classmates from similar backgrounds may play an important role in driving the observed effects. (JEL I23, I26, J16, O15)","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114761389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper answers two primary questions on Trinidad and Tobago’s economy: (1) How long are the effects from oil and gas disturbances on the economy? (2) How do the long-run effects from oil and gas disturbances differ within the economy? Trinidad and Tobago was ideal for this investigation due to its well-developed gas and oil exploration infrastructure. To achieve this task an estimation of a VECM model, with cointegration restrictions based on a long-run macroeconomic model were conducted. Benchmark analysis was performed that compared VECM against traditional time series models showing the benefits of utilizing cointegration relationships that were embedded within the data. In addition to teasing out the long-run effects of oil and gas disturbances, a SVEC model was estimated. It was found that there was a clear distinction between oil and gas disturbances with oil shocks being larger in magnitude and duration. Also, disturbances had opposing dynamics on CPI, interest rate, inflation and narrow money velocity, but were positively correlated with the effective real exchange rate in the long- run. These findings are important; because, without them it is probable that a wrong policy mix or inappropriate portfolio allocation would be performed, resulting in a sub-optimal result.
{"title":"Are Long-Run Effects from Oil and Gas Disturbances Different? Insights for Trinidad and Tobago","authors":"R. Whittaker","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2873303","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2873303","url":null,"abstract":"This paper answers two primary questions on Trinidad and Tobago’s economy: (1) How long are the effects from oil and gas disturbances on the economy? (2) How do the long-run effects from oil and gas disturbances differ within the economy? Trinidad and Tobago was ideal for this investigation due to its well-developed gas and oil exploration infrastructure. To achieve this task an estimation of a VECM model, with cointegration restrictions based on a long-run macroeconomic model were conducted. Benchmark analysis was performed that compared VECM against traditional time series models showing the benefits of utilizing cointegration relationships that were embedded within the data. In addition to teasing out the long-run effects of oil and gas disturbances, a SVEC model was estimated. It was found that there was a clear distinction between oil and gas disturbances with oil shocks being larger in magnitude and duration. Also, disturbances had opposing dynamics on CPI, interest rate, inflation and narrow money velocity, but were positively correlated with the effective real exchange rate in the long- run. These findings are important; because, without them it is probable that a wrong policy mix or inappropriate portfolio allocation would be performed, resulting in a sub-optimal result.","PeriodicalId":324969,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Latin America & the Caribbean (Development) (Topic)","volume":"89 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124150742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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